UNDERSTANDING MASS
SUPPORT FOR DEMOCRACY
Conclusion to Course
FOCUS
• General question: How strong are new
democracies around the world?
• Specific question: How solid is mass support
for democracy? Especially in the Islamic
world?
• Dataset: World Values Survey, 1999-2001
MODEL
Model: Level of democracy = f (Popular support)
Level of democracy: Freedom House scores on
political rights (1-7) and civil liberties (1-7)
Finding I: Overt lip service not a reliable
indicator of level of democracy (necessary but not
sufficient)
Finding II: Tolerance, trust, activism, and “postmaterialist” values are stronger indicators of stable
democracy
EMPIRICAL FINDINGS
• In median country, 92% support idea of
democracy
• But in 18 societies, a majority endorse “a
strong leader who does not have to bother with
elections or parliament”
• And strong correlations emerge between FH
indices 1981-2000 and Democracy/Autocracy
Index (e.g., +.506)
DEMOCRACY/AUTOCRACY
INDEX
•
•
•
•
A. Democracy “a good way of governing”
B. Democracy “better than any other form”
C. Expert decisions “best for country”
D. Strong leader who does not have to bother
with elections or parliament
• Index = (A%+B%) – (C%+D%)
SURVIVAL vs.
SELF-EXPRESSION
A. Most people can be trusted
B. Very happy, quite, not very, not at all
C. Homosexuality justified? (r with FH scores = +.804)
D. Sign a petition?
E. Materialist/Post-materialist values
Survival/Self-expression factor scores: correlation with
FH scores 1981-2000 = +.830
REGRESSION MODEL
• X = Survival/Self-expression scores
• Y = Freedom House ratings 1981-2000
(inverted, so minimum = 40 and maximum =
280)
• r = +.83
IMPLICATIONS
• Societies in transition zone, including Mexico
• Asian societies “may be more ready for
democracy than is generally believed”
• Islamic societies “roughly where one would
expect, on the basis of their level of economic
development…”
• Question: Why not use dummy variables?
IMPLICATIONS (cont.)
• Causal sequence:
– Economic development leads to
– Self-expression values which lead to
– Higher levels of sustained democracy
• “Culture seems to shape democracy far more
than democracy shapes culture.”
FINAL THOUGHTS:
WHAT HAVE
WE LEARNED,
ANYWAY?
THE THREE-PRONGED APPROACH
1. Logic and principles of statistical analysis (lectures)
2. Uses of software (sections and labs)
3. Applications in political science:
 Course Reader (lectures and sections)
 Student Projects (sections, labs, etc.)
SUMMATION OF COURSE
• Questions of Measurement
 Data, Variables, Concepts
 Levels of Measurement
 Central Tendency
 Dispersion
• Issues in Research Design
 Hypotheses and Models
 Approaching the Paper Assignment
OUTLINE (cont.)
• Categorical Data: Cross-Tabulations
The Principle of PRE
Lambda-b and Gamma
Chi-Square and Statistical Significance
• Interval Data: Regression Analysis
The Logic of Regression
Interpreting Regression Coefficients
The Meaning of Statistical Significance
Multiple Regression
Using Dummy Variables
WHAT YOU CAN NOW DO
Read professional articles in the field of political science
Apply concepts of research design to your own work

(quantitative or not)
Identify questions of cause-and-effect
Penetrate the fog of numbers and data
Regale friends with tales of PS 30 Spring ‘08
The End…
And Many Thanks