Northern Ireland Economic and
Labour Market Statistics & Sources
Dr. James Gillan
Department of Enterprise Trade and Investment
Northern Ireland
Central Statistics Office
Business Statistics Seminar
26th February 2008
Northern Ireland Business Statistics
• Produced under National Statistics Protocols
– “The primary aim of National Statistics is to provide
an accurate, up-to-date, comprehensive and
meaningful picture of the economy and society to
support the formulation and monitoring of economic
and social policies by government at all levels”
• Primarily conducted by DETI (NISRA staff)
• Collected under the Statistics of Trade and
Employment (NI) Order 1988
– Statutory
– Confidential
• Statistics Advisory Committee consulted on
Burden on Business obligations
Northern Ireland Economic Statistics
Labour Market
Labour Force
Employee jobs:
Employee Jobs
Census
Employee jobs:
QES
Macroeconomic
Business Register
Index of Production
Index of Services
Index of Construction
Annual Business
Inquiry
Manufacturing
Exports
Service
Exports
Claimants
Redundancy
Business Activity
Northern Ireland
Regional GVA
Research &
Development
Innovation
Earnings
NI Regional Data
Comparison of LFS and QNHS
• LFS
• QNHS
• Use ILO Definitions
• HH survey with wave structure
• Weighted to population
(age/sex/region)
• 3,250 HH’s per qtr (0.5% of all)
• Sampling error – higher
• Use ILO Definitions
• HH survey with wave structure
• Weighted to population
(age/sex/region)
• 39,000 HH’s per qtr (2.7%)
• Sampling error – lower
– Employment CV ~1.3%
– Unemployment CV ~8.3%
– Employment CV ~0.4%
– Unemployment CV ~2.4%
• 16+ population (school age)
• Calendar Qtrs, Rolling-Monthly
& Rolling Annual data
• Quarterly from Spring ‘95
• 15+ population (school age)
• Seasonal Quarter data
Trends in Employment
(Index 1997=100)
160
RoI
NI
UK
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Sources Republic of Ireland: Central Statistics Office
Northern Ireland: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment
RoI figures relate to 15+, NI/UK figures to 16+ due to differences in schoolleaving age.
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AB
% Change in Employment 1997-2007
by Sector in Main Job
160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
RoI
NI
UK
Unemployment rates
14%
12%
10%
RoI
8%
NI
6%
UK
4%
2%
0%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Sources Republic of Ireland: Central Statistics Office
Northern Ireland: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment
RoI figures relate to 15+, NI/UK figures to 16+ due to differences in schoolleaving age.
Economic Activity rates
85%
80%
RoI
NI
75%
UK
70%
65%
60%
55%
1996 1997 1998
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
2004 2005 2006
Reason for Economic Inactivity, NI & RoI Proportion
of working age population, 2005
20%
NI
RoI
15%
UK
10%
5%
0%
Student
Family/Home
Retired
Sick/Disabled
Other
Quarterly Employment Survey
(QES)
•
The Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) is a business survey that has
been carried out in Northern Ireland since 1978 and provides
estimates of the number of employee jobs in NI.
•
QES counts the number of jobs rather than the number of persons
with jobs. For example, a person holding both a full-time job and a
part-time job, or someone with two part-time jobs, will be counted
twice.
•
The QES has a sample size of approximately 5,400 and covers all
public sector bodies, all private sector firms with 25 or more
employees and a sample of the remainder.
•
The sample size has been chosen in order that estimates of total
employee jobs should be accurate to within +/- 1% of the Northern
Ireland Census of Employment total.
•
No directly comparable Republic of Ireland employee jobs measure.
Public Sector jobs in NI and Ireland
(Indexed): 1997 - 2007
130
1997 = 100
120
NI
ROI
UK
110
100
90
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Sources:
Republic of Ireland: Public Sector Quarterly Survey Central Statistics Office
Northern Ireland: Quarterly Employment Survey. Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment
UK: ONS
Proportion of all jobs in Public Sector in UK,
NI and Ireland: 1997 - 2007
30
25
UK
NI
ROI
20
15
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Sources:
Republic of Ireland: Quarterly National Household Survey & Public Sector Quarterly Survey Central Statistics
Office
Northern Ireland: Quarterly Employment Survey. Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment
UK: ONS
Annual Survey of Hours and
Earnings (ASHE)
• UK-wide sample survey that provides a wide range of information on
hourly, weekly and annual earnings by gender, work patterns, age,
industry and occupation inter alia
1% sample of N. Ireland PAYE, completed by employer only.
2,500 businesses; C. 6,000 persons; response rate of 97%;
CV 1.5% median gross f/t wages
• Replaced New Earnings Survey in 2004 to address weaknesses in
design:
Improved coverage (flows on/off PAYE)
Results weighted to LFS employee population by age, sex, occupation, region
Median values used in preference to mean to report earnings
Provides estimates of basic and total paid hours worked. LFS for actual hrs.
Carried out by Office of National Statistics (ONS) in Great Britain, and
by Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment in Northern Ireland
Comparability between NI and RoI
earnings statistics
The National Employment Survey (NES) is currently the most
comparable annual survey of earnings (c. 8,000 selected
enterprises) to ASHE in the Republic of Ireland.
SIC/NACE and occupational coverage is broadly comparable.
Differences include sample design, grossing (QNHS SIC);
The NES 2006 reference period was at March 2006, while the ASHE
reference period is always April of each year. While the NES is
being conducted annually from 2006 onwards, an annual time-series
does not currently exist.
The NES is moving to an October reference period which may further
reduce comparability
Caution if using earlier surveys for comparisons
Median gross weekly earnings for full-time employees in
the private sector in NI and UK, 1997-2007
£ per week
500
400
300
NI Private
UK Private
* The introduction of methodological changes to improve the quality of
ASHE data has resulted in discontinuities in trends.
2007
2006
2006*
2005
2004
2004*
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
200
Yor k
s hi r
I r el a
s
om
an d
469.0
nd
600
I r el a
on
440.6 443.6 444.8 449.8
L on d
th E
a st
E ng l
t Br i
t ai n
S ou
G r ea
ed K
in gd
428.1
419.1
416.8
413.7
412.5
409.0
394.8 400.0 402.5
E as t
l an d
500
Un i t
S co t
nd
e an
d th
e Hu
m be
r
W es
t Mi
dl an
ds
S ou
th W
e st
N or t
h We
st
E as t
M i dl
an ds
h e rn
W al e
h Ea
st
450
N or t
N or t
£ per week
Median gross weekly earnings (£) for full-time employees,
2006 UK and Ireland
569.2
550
456.2
400
350
300
250
Northern Ireland Regional
Accounts
• The first official estimates of GDP for NI were published
in 1965.
• Official and consistent estimates covering all UK regions
did not appear until 1977.
• More recently the production of the UK “Regional”
Accounts has been the responsibility of the ONS.
–
–
–
–
Gross Value Added (-2006), by Industry to 2004
Gross Disposable Household Income (-2005) and
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (-2001)
Individual Consumption Expenditure (-1999)
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=7359
• Public Expenditure information for NI and the UK
published by HM Treasury http://www.hmtreasury.gov.uk/economic_data_and_tools/finance_spending_statistics/pes_publications/pespub_index.cfm
NI Economic Structure in Comparison to RoI 2004
Public Adminiatrtion,
Health , Education
Industry
Financial, Business
Services
Distribution, Hotels,
Transport
Construction
Production
Agriculture
-17.5 -15.0
-12.5 -10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
% Difference (NI-ROI)
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
DETI ABI and CSO Sectoral Inquiries
• ABI
• CIP, ASI, CBC…..
• Meets Structural Business Reg
• Coverage Part Agriculture;
Production, Construction,
Services excluding Finance,
No public sector (with
exceptions)
• All 20+ Manufacturing
• Sample by SIC Section and
Size band
• 4,500 Reporting Units, c 1%
• Turnover, GVA, Capex, LU
Employment (Sept.) and costs,
Limited expenses breakdown
Trade in services; e-commerce
• UK consistent, ONS modelling
•
•
•
•
•
•
Meets Structural Business Reg
Similar coverage (Finance)
All 20+ Manufacturing
CIP total sample size 5,000
ASI total sample size 25,000
Turnover, GVA, Capex, LU
Employment (Sept.) and costs,
family business; ecommerce
• More detailed LU financial info
• Includes exports and imports
• Much more detailed business
expenditure information
NI vs ROI Manufacturing
GVA per worker (2001-2006)
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
ROI
euros
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
2001-2006
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
NI
NI vs ROI Manufacturing
GVA per worker (2001-2006)
180,000
160,000
140,000
euros
120,000
ROI
100,000
NI
80,000
Domestic
ROI
Domestic
NI
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
01
0
2
02
0
2
03
0
2
04
0
2
2001-2006
05
0
2
06
0
2
NI and ROI Trade
(HMRC and NI Manufacturing Exports Survey)
2500
2000
NI MSES
1500
HMRC ROI to
NI
£m
1000
HMRC NI to
ROI
500
2006 (p)
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
Exporting NI Services - RoI
Export of Services - ROI as % of Service Exports
100.00%
90.00%
Computer & Related
Activities
80.00%
Architectural & Engineering
Activities and Technical Testing &
Analysis1
70.00%
Research & Development
60.00%
50.00%
Business & Management
Consultancy Activities
40.00%
Advertising
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
Market Research
Creative Entertainment
Comparison of Research and Development (R&D) in
Northern Ireland (NI) Vs Republic of Ireland (ROI)
• R&D in Northern Ireland
R&D in Republic of Ireland
•
Annual surveys covering Business
Expenditure on R&D (BERD), Higher
Education Expenditure (HERD) and
Government Expenditure (GERD).
•
Biennial surveys covering Business
Expenditure on R&D (BERD), Higher
Education Expenditure (HERD) and
R&D in the public sector
•
The Northern Ireland R&D survey has
been carried out annually since 2001
and previously was conducted
triennially in 1993,1996 and 1999.
•
Most recent carried out for year 2005
but provisional estimates are available
for 2006
•
R&D survey consists of all businesses
thought to be carrying out research
and development work as defined in
the “Frascati” manual and the latest
ROI survey consists of 3,750 firms
•
Most recent figures related to 2006
•
R&D survey consists of all businesses
thought to be carrying out research
and development work as defined in
the “Frascati” manual and the latest NI
survey consists of 794 firms.
Trends in Business Research and Development (BERD)
(Index 1996=100) in cash terms
390
340
RoI
NI
290
240
190
140
90
1996
1997
1999
2001
2002
2003
2004
Sources Republic of Ireland: Forfás
Northern Ireland: Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment
2005
2006
Research and Development Expenditure
Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D
as % of GDP, 2005 or latest available year
Trend in R&D spend (BERD)
as % of GVA 2001-2006
2.5
4
NI
UK
3.5
2
3
2.5
1.5
2
1.5
1
1
0.5
0.5
0
2006
2005
BERD – Business
Expenditure on R&D
2004
Source: ONS and DETI
2003
2002
2001
Portugal
Spain
Italy
Ireland
Northern Ireland
Norway
Netherlands
UK
France
OECD Total
Germany
USA
Finland
Sweden
Source: OECD Factbook 2007: Economic, Environmental
and Social Statistics
Northern Ireland figure, Total Expenditure on R&D
as % of GVA 2006
0
Community Innovation Survey
The UK and Republic of Ireland innovation surveys were completed as part of the EU Community Innovation
set of surveys and use the Eurostat core questionnaire used by the EU 27. Results were collected within the
UK by the Department of Trade and Industry and in the Republic of Ireland by Forfás.
Data on a variety of innovation activities was gathered obeying the strict international methodological
guidelines as laid out in the OECD Oslo Manual, and core industrial sectors covered by the EU surveys were
firms with 10 or more employees in the following SIC/NACE sectors:
10-14
15-37
40-41
51
60-64
65-67
72
74.2
74.3
Mining and Quarrying;
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas and Water
Wholesale Trade
Transport, Storage and Communication
Financial Services
Software Consultancy and Supply
Engineering and Technical Consultancy
Technical Testing and Analysis
Please note that the following additional sectors were covered in the UK survey, but have been excluded from
NI and UK results in the following slides to allow for direct comparability:
45
Construction
50
Sale, maintenance and repair of motor vehicles
52
Retail trade
55
Hotels and restaurants
70
Real estate
71
Rental of machinery and equipment
73
R&D
Remainder of SIC 74 (i.e. excl. 74.2 and 74.3) – Other Business Activities
Germany
Austria
Luxembourg
Ireland*
Iceland
Denmark
Belgium
Sweden
Estonia
Cyprus
NI
Finland
United Kingdom
Portugal
Group Average
Czech Republic
Norway
Italy
Greece
Spain
Netherlands
France
Lithuania
Slovenia
Poland
Slovakia
Hungary
Malta
Romania
Latvia
Bulgaria
Percentage
Innovation active rates (per cent of businesses) for respondents
to the Community Innovation Survey, 2002-04
All
100
10-49 employees
90
50-249 employees
250+ employees
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
* Ireland results are provisional.
Source: Eurostat, DETI Statistics Research Branch
Innovation active rates (%) by business size
and Industry and Services sectors, 2002-04
Business Size
Industry
Services
SIC C-E
SIC I, J,
51, 72,
74.2, 74.3
10-49
50-249
250+
All
businesses
Ireland
47.2
65.3
75.1
52.2
60.9
43.8
NI
43.7
50.8
74.1
45.7
47.4
44.2
United
Kingdom
39.9
52.6
62.5
43.0
44.4
41.8
Source: Eurostat, DETI Statistics Research Branch
Conclusions
• NI economic and labour market statistics provision compares
favourably against UK regions
– No regional prices, limited domestic consumption statistics
– Regional Accounts re-engineering
• Potential for greater NI-ROI comparability
–
–
–
–
•
•
•
•
Inherent difficulties in national vs devolved comparisons
Greater North-South dimension for existing series, metadata
Trade, productivity measures, business costs need development
Burden on business
Allsopp Review
EU standards
SIC 2007
The user view