Monetary Policy: Contemporary Issues ECO 473 - Dr. Dennis Foster W.A. Franke College of Business Monetary Policy: Contemporary Issues I II III IV V VI VII Heading into crisis The failures Fed inaction & action What has the Fed accomplished? The problem with policy The Austrians & rethinking policy Outlook for the economy I. Heading into crisis Anatomy of Financial Crisis What does the Fed Want? • A healthy & strong economy with low unemployment and low inflation. • Policy? Stimulate spending by reducing interest rates. • Why? They are Keynesians. • Effect? Creates housing boom. Federal Funds rate of interest, 1995 to 2004 30 year mortgage rate, 1995 to 2004 Median home prices, 1999 to 2006 Home sales, 1999 to 2006 Sept. 2005 The Bear Stearns Story II. The failures • $133.20 - 52 week high prior to collapse. • 2007 - Lost billions in collapsing subprime market; slowly recovering. • March 2008 - Assets/equity = 35 Lots of assets in MBS. • Spring 2008 - Clients pulling out funds. • 3/10/08 - Turned down for $2 b. loan $400 b. Assets Continued loss of confidence in Bear all week. • 3/13/08 – Cash from $10 b. to $2 b. The Bear Stearns Story • Tried to get LOC w/JPM for $25 b. • 3/14/08 – Fed lends $13 b. for 3 days. • JP Morgan deal - $2 per share! • Fed creates Maiden Lane LLC – Fed loans ML $30 b. – JPM “sells” bad assets to ML. • 3/24/08 - New stock deal - $10/share. • Cost to the Fed? • Was Bear TBTF? Yes! – What about Lehman? The Three Failures: IndyMac WaMu Lehman • IndyMac $32 b. Assets – Spun off from Countrywide. – Not a “mac” – Overleveraged on “Alt A” loans. • WaMu $300 b. Assets $640 b. Assets – Shut down 100’s of offices 2007-08. – Sub-prime victim. – Final 10 days lost $17 b. in cash w/d • Lehman Brothers – Losses = $7 b. in Q2 & Q3 – Final day: $1 b. in cash Stock prices collapse III. Fed inaction & action Did the Fed see this coming? III. Fed inaction & action Did the Fed see this coming? What did the Fed do? • Cut interest rates. • Lend to everyone. • Quantitative Easing. Federal Funds rate of interest, 2004 to 2014 Fed Lending Programs: 2008-2010 Term Auction Credit Primary Dealer Credit Commercial Paper MMMF Asset-backed Securities The Quantitative Easing Programs +644% +162% +44% IV. What has the Fed accomplished? The Fed charts new territory. $4 tr. $2.7 tr. Monetary Base $2.5 tr. US T XS R $1.7 tr. MBS Housing Revisited 30 year mortgage rate, 2004 to 2014 Housing Revisited Median home prices, 1999 to 2014 Housing Revisited Home sales, 1999 to 2014 V. The problem with policy What is the exit strategy? • The FED will have two choices: • Continue policy hyperinflation • Halt policy recession • Or . . . Wage/Price controls? Are Monetary Policies Effective? • “No” . . . – Investment channel collapses. – People are rational and counteract. – Lag problems. – It introduces systemic distortions. • “Yes” . . . – Various transmission mechanisms. – Policy is unanticipated. – Wage & price rigidity. The Fed and its Policies • Has it maintained the value of the dollar? • Has it stabilized the economy? • Is it enhancing moral hazard? • Is it creating distributional problems? • Is risk of inflation gone? The Unemployment Rate – 1980-2014 Oct. ‘09 - 10.1% Dec. ‘82 - 10.8% June ‘92 - 7.8% June ‘03 - 6.3% A Tale of Four Recoveries +19% +28% +16% +12% Tracking Prices and Inflation 3rd Q yr-to-yr +1.8% VI. The Austrians & rethinking policy Rethinking Policy: The Austrian School of Thought • Recessions are the solution, not the problem! • Keynesian policy - interest to spending. • Leads to misallocation of resources. • Leads to an unsustainable boom. • Leads to eventual conflict (C vs. I). • What should we do? Wait!! 2008 1981 1920 March 5.5% GDP (2011) = $18.3 tr. vs. $13.3 tr. 1990 - 2011 net gain = $34.6 tr. Rothbard - A Return to Sound Money Get back on the gold standard. Define $ in terms of gold. No more suspensions of payment in gold. Abolish the Federal Reserve. Redeem every $ of M1 in gold… Get government out of money. Bank notes will replace FRN. 100% reserve ratio Or, let banks fail. Abolish FDIC, US Mint. The Results of Sound Money 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. No No No No No bank panics. convoluted regulation. inflation. discretionary monetary policy. monetizing of federal gov’t. debt. 6. An end to the business cycle!! • Let bad firms/banks go bankrupt. – We don’t lose real resources!!!!! • Abolish Fannie & Freddie. • End the Fed. • End the government monopoly on money. VII. Outlook for the economy What is the Outlook? • Interest rates will stay low. Yellen only hints at increases. • Inflation is still a looming danger. Where will all the money go? • Unemployment will be erratic. May rise if lfpr rises even with growth. • Best case scenario? Worst case scenario? Economy sluggish,banks Ur stagnant, and Economyissurges, lending, and hold inflation. massive XS reserves. andbanks dramatic Another yearwithin (or 2?)3 on the knife edge. Recession years??? Get on the mailing list for Fall 2015 – dennis.foster@nau.edu The W.A. Franke College of Business Northern Arizona University Spring 2016 ECO 481: Public Choice Theory W h y G o v e r n m e n t F a i l s Dr. Dennis Foster FCB #208 Monetary Policy: Contemporary Issues ECO 473 - Dr. Dennis Foster W.A. Franke College of Business