Work package 5: Economic development, trade and investment.
Progress Report
Luc De Wulf
Action Plan June 7, 2010
Work package number
5
Work package title
Activity Type
Participant number
Participant short name
CEPS
CASE CCEIA
MAS
IMRI
2
22
22
35
Person-months per
participant:
Start date or starting event:
March 2010
Economic development, trade and investment.
RTD
7
FEMI ITCEQ
SE
7
25
Objectives of the research
The main scientific objective of this workpackage is conducting a foresight analysis of
key economic challenges facing MED11 countries until 2025. They are related to prudent
macroeconomic and fiscal management and their role in determining long-term growth
prospects, deepening trade and investment integration within the region and with the
outside world (especially with the EU), development perspectives of sectors, which have
special importance fro this region such as tourism, infrastructure, agriculture and fishery,
redefinition of the role of public sector, privatization and private sector development
(including easing a business climate).
Description of work
The workpackage consists of five tasks:
Task 1: Macroeconomic and fiscal determinants of long-term growth prospects in
MED11.
Task Leader: Leonor Coutinho (CCEIA)
Methodology
We will gather a panel database for Euro-Mediterranean countries and EU countries. In
this database we will include macroeconomic policy indicators, as well as measures of
output growth and inflation and a range of control variables. We will distinguish between
oil producing and non-oil producing countries.
We shall gather data on the institutional framework for making fiscal and monetary
policy in MED!(
Using this database we will analyze the performance of macroeconomic policies in the
region by:
1
I – Describing the stylized facts on monetary and fiscal policy in the region, including
2) Monetary policy institutions
2) Monetary policy frameworks: objectives, instruments, targets; (will be
coordinated with WP6).
3) Exchange rate arrangements
4) Fiscal institutions and budgetary procedures
5) Composition of revenues, the role of automatic stabilizers, and the relative
importance of aid and natural resource revenues
6) Size and composition of fiscal expenditures
7) Role of price subsidies, in particular food and fuel subsidies
8) Public debt and debt sustainability issues
7) Privatization programs
II – Identifying the main drives of inflation, growth and employment in the region and
their relative importance. For this we will
1) analyze econometrically the determinants of inflation dynamics (and possibly core
inflation depending on data availability) in the European neighborhood, taking into
account monetary conditions indicators (including the exchange rate regime ), fiscal
pressures (and possibly other fiscal variables such as the level of price subsidies),
institutional indicators, external factors (e.g. oil price and commodity price
developments), and country characteristics (e.g. oil exporting/importing).
2) analyze econometrically the determinants of economic growth and employment,
analyzing in particular the impact of different monetary and fiscal institutions on
growth differentials, controlling once more for country characteristics. We will also
analyze the role of the composition of fiscal expenditures, for countries for which
data is available.
III –Constructing alternative inflation, growth and employment scenarios, depending on
alternative policy stance and exogenous shocks. For this, we will analyze the possible
impact of alterative assumptions regarding:
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
Monetary conditions reflecting monetary and exchange rate policy stance
Fiscal policy, including the composition of revenues and expenditure
Trade liberalization
The scope and pace of privatization
External developments: oil and commodity price trends; world economy
Deliverables and time table
 Methodology Note: End May 2010 (see above)
 Stylized facts for the institutional set up of fiscal and monetary policy in the MED 11 ,


based on input from MAS—October 2010
Transfer of data set October 2010
Research paper analyzing alternative growth and employment scenarios for MED!! April
2011
Team;
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 Leonor Couthino, CCEIA.
 SAM; individual contributor still to be identified
Task 2: Trade and investment integration within the region and with the outside
world
Task leader : Kalid Sekkat (FEMISE)
Objectives:
 To investigate the actual and potential levels of trade and FDI into the MED11
and their determinants with particular emphasis on governance, institutional
quality and business environment.
 To produce, based the output of other WP such as WP2 and WP7, scenarios for
future flows of trade and FDI.
 To participate in the construction of a panel dataset of bilateral trade and FDI
flows and of their determinants.
 Case study for Turkey’s customs Union for Turkey (To be delivered by Prof.
Subidey Togan)
Methodology and approach:
MEDRPO being a prospective study, it was agreed during the kick off meeting that all
contributions should be policy oriented rather than academic and eventually publishable
contributions. Therefore, the approach is the following:
 Review of the literature on the determinants of trade and of FDI into MED11 with
special attention to governance/institutional quality and business environment.
The AIM is identifying the coefficients that will be used subsequently. These
coefficients will be incorporated into an equation linking trade and FDI to their
determinants.
 Collect data on trade, FDI and their determinants between MED11 and the EU.
 Use the identified coefficients, the assumed relationships, observations of the
relevant determinants and the various assumptions on future developments in the
governance and institutional quality in MED11 to provide and discuss future
development of flows of trade and FDI between the EU and MED11. There will
be three or four scenarios with variables that relate to openness of the economies
(EU and the rest of the world) and to a combination of factors (to be worked out
in the other WPs) that would lead to status quo, downside and upside scenarios.
Data Source:
 Eurostat for the bilateral trade and FDI between MED11 and the EU.
 WDI for total FDI inflows to MED11 and control variables such as GDP,
infrastructure, human capital etc.
 World Bank data sets on governance and business environment.
 Inputs from WP2 and WP7.
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Timetable:
The project will be divided into six phases as follows:
 Stage 1: Review of the literature on the determinants trade and of FDI into
MED11. October 2010.
 Stage 2: Collection of the data on trade and FDI between MED11 and the EU as
well as data on the determinants of trade and FDI. October 2010.
 Stage 3: Analysis and comparison of present trade and FDI flows and their
potential levels between MED11 and the EU. December 2010
 Stage 4: Simulation and analysis, based the output of other WP such as WP2 and
WP7, of scenarios for future flows of trade and FDI between MED11 and the EU.
February 2011 depending on the delivery of the output of other WPs.


Stage 6: May 2011
Case study for Turkey: October 2010.
Team
 Khalid Sekkat, Professor of economics, University of Brussels, Belgium
 Subidey Togan, Professor of economics, Bilkent University, Turkey
 Salim Gadi, CEPS, Belgium
Task 3: Integration with the EU : Deep versus shallow integration
Task Leader; Ahmed Ghoneim
Objective
To investigate how shallow (tariffs) and deep integration (NTBs and transport costs and
procedures) affect trade between MED 11 and EU to ensure better integration in the
future with gains for MED 11 and EU. In this regard the team will try to stimulate
different scenarios on how trade can increase if NTBs and tariffs are lowered.
Methodology and approach
 Building a database on NTBs based on international data sources (a definite
selection of NTBs will be identified during the first phase of the project
depending on practicality, applicability to be converted into quantitative measures
as tariff equivalents, and data availability).

Conducting a review of NTBs in MED 11 countries that affect imports in those
countries, as well as EU NTBs that might affect of MED 11. The review will
build on CEPS survey and can be complemented by MAS undertaking survey in
some of the MED 11 countries if applicable and follow the work of CEPS in this
regard.

Applying gravity model analysis to investigate how tariffs, NTBs, and transport
costs affect trade between MED 11 and EU and among MED 11 countries.
Several scenarios will be developed.
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Data Source
The data sources for the project will depend on international databases (as
TRAINS/WITS, World Bank indicators, WTO) as well as the available national sources
on NTBs and findings from especially designed researches .
Time table
The project will be divided into three phases as follows:
Stage 1: Surveying the literature on NTBs and building the database of NTBs for
the MED 11 countries. In this stage the level of (dis)aggregation and type of
NTBs considered will be decided so as to be able to calculate tariff equivalents
and parameters required for the gravity model analysis (either 2 or 4 digits). The
level of disaggregation will ensure providing the right balance between simplicity
and accuracy. Not all MED 11 countries and NTBs will necessarily be included in
the database due to data paucity. The quantitative analysis will be complemented
by a qualitative analysis. Indicators on transport costs and procedures (e.g. Trade
Logistics Indicator) as well as tariffs (e.g. WTO database and COMTRADE) will
also be collected. NTBs for MED exports to the EU will similarly be collected
and analyzed. The NTBs database and transport costs will be transferred to WP 8
to be used in their research
Stage 1 is expected to be delivered by November 2010.
Stage 2: Applying a gravity model to test the impact of deep versus shallow
integration will be traced for the period up to 2030. This analysis will incorporate
data on tariff equivalents for NTBs, tariffs and trade logistics costs ( including
transport related aspects as logistics indicators) The focus will be on the trade
between the MED 11 countries and EU—imports as well as exports. The gravity
model will make it possible to assess the impact of tariff reductions (shallow
integration) and NTB cuts and transport costs (deep integration) through the
parameters of the models.
Stage 2 is expected to be delivered April 2011.
Stage 3: The gravity model elaborated in the second stage of the project will be
used to simulate the trade effects of the impact of introducing over time different
degrees of shallow and deep integration.
In this stage the write up of the whole research will also be undertaken
Stage 3 is expected to be delivered July 2011.
Team



Ahmed Farouk Ghoneim: (Cairo University and CASE). Team leader
Nicolas Peridy (Toulon University) gravity models
Javier Lopez Gonzalez (Sussex University) building databases on trade flows and
tariffs.
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
Mahmoud El-Jafari of MAS will undertake a review on NTBs and undertaking
national surveys in 2 or 3 MED 11 countries.
Task 4. Sectors of special importance (CASE and CEPS)
This task concentrates on selected sectors having a special importance for the MED11
region, and their future development, their impact on economic growth, trade, FDI and
employment. Some of these sectors have a great importance for employment
opportunities and balance of trade (tourism, agriculture), other are critical for economic
modernization and trade facilitation (transportation and telecommunication). On the other
hand, the constraints coming from climate change, unsustainable exploitation of natural
resources, environmental pollution and water scarcity (especially for tourism, agriculture
and fisheries) will be also analyzed, drawing from results of WP4a.
a. Agriculture
Team leader : Saad Belghazi, IMRI – Objectives :
Analyze the status of the agricultural sector in MED11 countries so as to provide a select
number of scenarios of the agricultural sector by 2030. These scenarios will reflect
various policy variants. The results will feed into the macro scenarios that will be
developed by other sections of the MEDPRO project.
Project descriptions.
The project will consist of both a status report of the agricultural sector in MED11 and a
the construction of a select set of scenarios till 2030
Status report. This part of the report will describe the present status of the agricultural
sector. In particular it will draw on
 Growth performance of the agricultural sector in MED 11 (share of GDP,
employment, investment, employments)
 External trade (composition, destination by large categories of products)
 Description of major agricultural policies (market orientation incentive systems,
subsidies)-will be based on WTO reviews
 Development of agro industry ; based on the developments of selected value
chains
 Issues pertaining to challenges presented by climate change, including water
shortages (developing horticultural product as best use of scarce water resources).
 Social challenges –aging of the population, rural exodus, rural poverty,
employment situation
Prospective scenarios
A select set of scenarios will be provided. Scenario details are still being worked out and
will be detailed to ensure coherence with the scenario exercises of the other WPs and by
the findings of the status report mentioned above. Issues that will profiled in the
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scenarios include combination of two axis (sustainable development and Euromed trade
cooperation) following the Sessa’s scenario building approach
 Wealth and sustainable development
o Outlook for productivity gains
o Impact of environmental stress and the policy reaction by MED11
countries, including outside support.
 Euromed cooperation and changes in the international trade agreements
o Impacts of Doha Agenda results on agriculture and food trade in the
Mediterranean
o Ag and food aspects of Euromed integration advancement
 At this stage the most promising scenarios appear to be :
o Status quo, with most efforts toward satisfying domestic demand and food
security ;
o Status quo with greater opening to the outside world, but with limited
exports of horticultural exports to the EU;
o Greater Euromed integration, with particular progress towards exports of
horticultural products towards the EU so as to better manage water
shortages. .
Methodology
The study will draw on studies of the agricultural sector in MED11. In particular use will
be made of sector studies undertaken by the World ban FAO, IFAD, ILO and selectively
country studies. Policy options as they emerge from the WTO trade negotiations will
also be consulted.
During the preparation of the report systematic contacts will be retained with the other
WPs to ensure coherence and synergy.
Time table
 Construction of data base and transmission to Luc De Wulf and other WPs:
September 2010
 Status Report of agriculture in MED11: October 2010

Scenarios : December 2010
b. Tourism
Task leader; Robert Lanquar
Methodology:
The study will (i) review the status of the tourism sector in MED11 (volume,
employment, economic and balance of payment contribution, impact on environment) (ii)
identify the policy measures that could contribute to ensure sustainable development of
the sector in the future and (iii) offer a prospective vision for the sector in 2025 with
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several scenarios; the approach will emphasize a quantitative approach supplemented by
a qualitative evaluation. The sector will also explore how Europe could help to the
sustainable development of the sector in the future.
The study will fully take into account the assessment of the sector developments made by
the UNWTO's Tourism 2020 Vision (written in 1995) that forecasts international arrivals
at nearly 1.6 billion by the year 2020, of which 1.2 billion will be intraregional and 378
million long-haul travelers. According to the UNWTO/United Nations Recommendations
on Tourism Statistics, tourism comprises the activities of persons travelling to and
staying in places outside their usual environment for not more than one consecutive year
for leisure, business and other purposes.
.
Another projection that will be studied is The Blue Plan that was drawn up during the
early 1990s. Publications such as “Tourism and the environment in the Mediterranean1”
present these perspectives as well as five scenarios (3 using positive, neutral and negative
trends and 2 alternatives – a MED11 regional integration and an association with Europe)
for 2015 and 2025. This study covers international tourist arrivals and domestic tourism,
international and domestic tourism receipts, employment, impacts on energy, water use,
wastes But the Blue Plan report puts more emphasis of seacoast than on hinterland where
rural and cultural tourism products and services have a great impact on demographics and
local development.
The project will link up with the work undertaken in other segments of the MEDPRO
project. In particular WP8 concerning “Human capital, social protection, inequality and
migration” (inequality leads to less leisure and vacation leisure, while migration is
estimated to account for 20% of international tourism) and WP4a
concerning ”Management of Environment and natural resources”, but issues related to
agriculture and investment will be taken into account.
Data Sources
Data for MED11 will be obtained mainly from UNWTO, World Bank and META and a
major effort will be made to achieve consistency between these different data sources.
The UNWTO breaks up tourism statistics for these countries in three regions: Europe (for
Turkey and Israel), Africa (for Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia) and Middle East (for
Libya, Egypt, Palestinian Authority, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria). . This database contains
a variety of series for all the MED 11 countries and territories from the 1980's on. The
database is maintained by the UNWTO Secretariat and is updated on a continuous base
The World Bank definition of MENA includes the Gulf countries but excludes Israel and
Turkey. The META statistics include 30 markets from South Europe (including Israel
and Turkey), to Africa (including Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Libya) and Middle East
(Egypt, Jordan, Palestinian Authority, Lebanon and Syria).
1
Tourisme et environnement en Méditerranée. Enjeux et prospective LANQUAR Robert et al. Paris : Plan
Bleu ; Economica, 1995.- 174 p. : tableaux, statistiques, bibl. (Les Fascicules du Plan Bleu 8). See also
Robert Lanquar, Le plan bleu, le tourisme et la sauvegarde à long terme de l'environnement méditerranéen,
Tourism Review, 1994, volume 49, Issue 2, MCB UP Ltd, ISSN: 0251-3102
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All these statistics will be compiled in order to provide the MEDPRO WP8 with a
detailed database. Consultant will consult with the team leader of WP8 on the content
and format of this database.
Deliverables and time table


Our status report will be produced and revised by September 2010. Data transfer
will occur at the same time. Given the connections between the development of
tourism and the other elements studies of the MEPRO project, contacts will be
maintained with various teams working on this project.
The prospective part of the report will be finalized by March 2011 and will
contain policy recommendations that should strengthen the development of the
sector in MED11 and enhance the chances that the high scenario will be realized.
c. Transport
Task leader. Robin Carruthers
Methodology
The study will (i) review the status of the transport sector in MED11 (quantity and
quality of infrastructure and services, the level of employment generated, and the
contribution of the sector to economic growth and balance of payment contribution, as
well as the impact of the sector on the environment) (ii) identify the policy measures and
investments that would best contribute to ensure sustainable development of the sector in
the future and (iii) offer a prospective vision for the sector in 2025 through the provision
of alternative scenarios; the approach will emphasize a quantitative approach
supplemented by a qualitative evaluation. Since demand for transport infrastructure and
services is a derived demand from other sectors, the reviews and assessments of the
sector will need to be closely related to those of the other sectors that generate the
demand for transport.
The study will take into account the many previous but partial assessments of the sector
and its future needs made by various international agencies over the last decade. Many of
these assessments have been made by the EU itself through its many regional agencies
(such as Euromed, 2004) while others have been made by UNESCWA (2004, 2006), the
World Bank (2010) and the League of Arab States (2007).
The contribution of transport in the environment of the region was assessed in a World
Bank/EU report in 1998, and the World Bank is currently providing a partial update
within its review of the global contribution of the transport sector to climate change and
global warming.
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The World Bank has recently developed a method for assessing the transport
infrastructure needs of each of its member countries (World Bank, 2009A) based on
concepts of connectivity to producers to markets and of people to their neighbors and to
vacation locations. An important feature of the model is its capacity to optimize the
allocation of investments to various regions and transport modes in the light of budget
constraints. The model will be used extensively in the assessment of transport
infrastructure needs to facilitate connectivity of the MED11 countries to the EU
An important output of the transport assessment will be the annual costs of sustaining the
transport sector and measures of the output of the sector (probably in terms of ton kms
and passenger kms) for each of the MED11 countries and the region as a whole, with a
view to providing sectoral inputs to the proposed gravity model that will include transport
costs as one of the determinants of trade volumes. The various scenarios developed from
this model will be inputs to the CGE model of the WP8 to study their impact on trade,
investment and output and other economic, social and environmental indicators and to
each other.
Data Sources
Data for MED11 will be obtained mainly from the Euromed center (2004), the World
Bank (2010), UNESCWA (2005) and the League of Arab States. Data for the application
of the World Bank Transport Infrastructure model will come from the transport agencies
of the MED11 countries themselves. The various sources of data will be needed as there
is no single extant database that covers all transport modes and all MED11 countries.
Data on transport and logistics services is not so readily available, neither are objective
standards for what level or quality of services are desirable. We will use the data
available from the Logistics Performance index (World Bank 2007 and 2010), the Cross
Border trade sections of Doing Business (World Bank 2009) and the Trade Performance
index (International Trade Center, UNCTAD/WTO, 2000 to 2009) to assess how well the
MED11 countries are performing relative to the EU countries.
All these statistics will be compiled into a common database for use in the analyses of
MEDPRO WP8. The Consultant will consult with the team leader of WP8 on the content
and format of this database.
Deliverables and time table

A status report will be produced and revised by September 2010. Given the
connections between the development of transport and the other elements studies
of the MEPRO project, it will be highly desirable that around that time a
consultation/meeting were to take place to coordinate the views of the various
teams working on this project. This would contribute to an overall coherent view
developed in the MEDPRO project.
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
The prospective part of the report will be finalized by March 2011 and will
contain policy recommendations that should strengthen the development of the
sector in MED11 and enhance the chances that the high scenario will be realized.
d. Information and Communications Technology
Task leader: Jawad Abassi
1. Methodology.
For market context, we will use in-house primary information, new primary
research, and reliable secondary resources such as published Arab Advisors’
reports, ITU and country-specific source data. At all times in the completion of
this study, we shall provide sufficient documentation as to explain our
methodological approach and assumptions, and to justify our conclusions. The
Arab Advisors Group covers on a continuous basis the countries of Morocco,
Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Palestinian Auth. And Jordan. We
do not cover Israel and Turkey, but have good contacts in Turkish operators. As
such, for Israel and Turkey, our team will rely on only secondary research of
reliable data such as national regulators, ITU and operators. The detailed
methodology and coverage will be agreed upon between CASE and Arabadvisors
before the beginning of the work. A dedicated conference call will be organized
for this purpose with agreed upon and minutes will be prepared.
The study is expected to be composed of a status report and a
prospective/recommendation report.
(i)
(ii)
Status report Arab Advisors will draw on its existing databases and
reports on the markets and leverage its relations to get any publicly
available studies/surveys done by the regulators and official organization
in these countries. These data will be analyzed and presented in a
systematic fashion that will permit drawing conclusions on the status of
ICT in MED11 that will be drawn upon to make the forward looking
analysis. This report including a rough draft of the forward looking
statements will be reviewed with CASE before drafting the stage (ii)
report. An Annex to the report will provide details on each country.
Forward looking analysis Policy recommendation that seem warranted
to ensure that the ICT sector matches the performance of “best practice”
countries so as to maximize its contribution to economic development of
MED11, also in light of the expected development of the ICT sector
worldwide. The forward looking statements will be general ones
covering the MED11 region and provide country specific suggestions.
However no detailed policy recommendations or detailed suggestions to
changes of laws and regulations will be provided. This section will also
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suggest how the EU can support this process of ICT development in
MED11.
(iii)
Data base transfer to MEDPRO. A data base will be prepared in the
course of the project implementation, and will be transferred to
MEDPRO and be used by the WP8 team in its forecast exercise.
2. Deliverables and deadlines. Under the assumption that a contract between
CASE and Arabadvisors is signed by end May 2010. (Deadlines will be
adjusted for the exact date of singing of the contract between CASE and
Mr.Jawad Abassi.)

Stage I report with annexes on each country will be delivered endOctober , 2010

Stage II report with detailed sections for each country will be
delivered en January 2011 , 2010.
e. Manufacturing industry: textile
Task leader: Salim Gadi (CEPS)
1. Industry definitions and country coverage
The textile industry is subject to two distinctions, the first being between upstream and
downstream textile industries. The upstream textile industry refers to the processing of
“raw” textiles such as cotton fibers. These are used in the downstream textile industry as
inputs for the manufacturing of shirts, trousers, carpets, workers outfits etc.
Regarding the MED-11, the textile industry is concentrated in five countries: Turkey,
Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan. Export markets are geographically segmented as
regards the country origin of textile goods: Mashrek countries tend to focus more on the
USA with the support of trilateral trade agreements between Israel, Egypt, and the USA,
whereas Maghreb countries and Turkey are key suppliers to the EU market. The industry
is at a turning point: the end of the Multi Fiber Agreement in 2005 translated into a
growing competition from Chinese textile products in the target export markets. In the
countries under study this has resulted in a trend of industrial restructuring with falling
outputs, decreasing exports and the search for upgraded production processes, sometimes
with the support of public policies. This is especially true for countries in which textile
accounts for a significant part in employment and/or exports (the textile industry as a
whole accounts for around 40% of Moroccan industrial labour force and provides with 39%
of the countries exports’ value). Also, producers have adapted their supply in a growing
attempt to move up in the value chain (Turkey) or strengthening their core assets
regarding their export targets (Tunisia and Morocco being geographically close to the EU
can produce and ship stocks quickly). Facing fierce competition, new production models
are emerging, and within the Euromed partnership sectoral initiatives tend to support
industrial shifts in South Mediterranean countries.
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2. Objectives of the study
- To provide with a descriptive analysis of the textile industry in the important
MED-11 producers, (Turkey, Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan) in light of their
participation to international trade agreements (Agadir Agreement, FTAs with the
USA, Customs Union and Association Agreements with the EU, Qualified
Industrial Zones (QIZ) between Israel and the USA) and the end of the multi fiber
agreement (MFA) and access to key export markets. The sector analysis of textile
made under the Final Report on Euro-Mediterranean Economic Integration2 will
be used as a starting point for the descriptive analysis of the textile industry in the
countries considered.
- Based on the descriptive analysis and semi structured interviews to be made with
industry representatives and executives in respective countries, government
officials in the relevant bodies (ministries of industry/trade) and technical
promotion bodies, to conduct a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities,
threats) analysis of the regional textile industry
- Building on the previous results, the study will analyze the developments that
could shape the textile industry in the four scenarios to be sketched based on
Sessa’s methodology. Given the importance of exports to the EU for the South
Mediterranean textile industry (especially for Turkey, Tunisia and Morocco),
special attention will be devoted to exchanges of textiles between the two regions.
3. Methodology and data sources:
Methodology will be qualitative, based on:
Public sources (WTO, Eurostat, national statistical offices) to fill the following table as
part of the descriptive analysis:
Output
Total textile exports Exports
of
processed textiles
N° of operating Total
textile Imports
of
companies
imports
processed textiles
Trade with the EU
Trade with the US
Intra regional trade
Exports
of
raw
textiles
Imports
of
raw
textiles
Foreign participation
(FDI)
4. Timing :
- Industry descriptions to be delivered in December 2010
- Semi structured interviews to be conducted between January and April 2010
- SWOT analysis and scenarios to be delivered by July 2011
Task 5: Privatization and private sector development (CASE)
2
L. De Wulf, M. Maliszewska et al : « Euro Mediterranean Economic Integration : Final
Report », September 2009, Center for Economic and Social Research (CASE), Centre for
European Policy Studies (CEPS).
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Task leader
 Piotr Kozarzewski (CASE)
Methodology
Both primary and secondary sources of information will be used. The research will
consist of three stages: (1) collection of data, (2) data analysis, (3) synthesis. Data
collection and analysis will cover three thematic groups: (1) the current state and trends
in the area covered by the research, (2) institutional, cultural, historical, political, and
other factors that may influence the behavior of main actors involved in the processes
studied, (3) relevant governmental policies. An extensive analysis of relevant existing
studies will also be carried out.
Comparative character is another feature of the research which will aim at not only
pointing out common problems, challenges and perspectives of the MED11 countries, but
also studying them in a comparative perspective – both within the region and comparing
to other groups of countries (post-communist countries of Europe and Central Asia, and
Latin America).
A special template for collecting data in MED11 countries and conducting preliminary
analysis at a country level has been prepared.
Detailed agreements with the regional research institutes is still being worked out.
Deliverables and timing
Interim deliverables November 2010
o 11 background country studies for each of the MED11 countries;
o Comparative background research of privatization and private sector
development in other regions.
Final deliverable May 2011. Technical Report on privatization and private sector
development and their perspectives in MED 11 region.
Division of responsibilities as per original discussion in Brussels. Revions proposed in
recent correspondence. : Still under discussion need details.
 CASE – Piotr Kozarzewski and Rick Woorward : scientific supervision;
comparative background research of privatization and private sector development
in other regions; analysis of cross-country and cross-regional comparative data;
final deliverable;
 MAS –(Palestine Economic Policy Research Institute) : Mr. Samir Abdullah
background country studies on Palestine, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Israel,
 IMRI –(Institut Marocain des Relations Internationales : Mr. Jawad Kerdoudi.
Background country studies on Morocco, Turkey, Algeria;
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
ITCEQ – ITCEQ (Institut Tunisien de la Compétitivité et des Etudes
Quantitatives : Mme. Saloua Ben Zaghou. Background country studies on Tunisia,
Egypt, Lybia.
PS. ICTEQ and MAS appear to back out of their commitments beyond analyzing Tunisia
(ICTEQ) and Jordan, Palestine (MAS). CASE has no resources to do field work and
proposes that resources be reallocated from ICTEQ and MAS to other Institutes or
individuals that can undertake this task. In the absence of these additional county studies
CASE will undertake its analysis with the available countries studies plus secondary
sources (as originally proposed before regional institutes were added to the project.
Timetable
WP5 Economic development, trade and investment
Deliverable name
WP5 1
WP5 2
Delivery date
Research paper analyzing
monetary and fiscal policies in
the MED11 region (including
the issue of long-term public
debt sustainability)
 Methodology
 Stylized facts
 Data transfer
 Prospective scenarios
Trade and investment flows
 Methodology
 Data transfer
 Prospective scenarios
 Final write up
 EU-Turkey Customs
Union




May 30, 2010
End-October 2010
End October 2010
Prospective analysis
April 2010

Methodology and
literature review
October 2010.
Data transfer October
2010
Prospective scenarios,
February 2011
Final write up May
2011
Case study of EUTurkey Customs
Union: October 2010.




15
WP 5.3
Deep versus shallow
integration.





WP5. 4
WP5.4.1
WP5.4.2
WP5.4.3.
WP5.4.4
WP5.5.
WP 5 Policy Brief
Methodology
Stylized facts and
literature review
Data transfer
Gravity model
Final report with
prospective scenarios
Sector Reviews.
Agriculture
 Data transfer
 Status report
 Prospective Scenarios
Tourist industry
 Status of sector
 Data transmission
 Prospective scenarios
Transport
 Status of sector
 Data transmission
 Prospective scenarios
Information technology
 Status of Sector
 Data transmission
 Prospective scenarios
Report on privatization and
private sector development and
their perspectives in MED 11
region
 Country reports
 Interim report
 Data transmission
 Final report
Policy Brief
16


May 30, 2010
End-November 2010



End-November 2010
End-April 2011
End-July 2011



September 2010
October 2010
December 2010



End September 2010
End September 2010
End march 2011


End September 2010
End September 2010

End March 2011



September 15
September 15, 2010
December 15, 2010

Under negotiation _September?
 End-November 2010
 End November 2010
 End May 2011
September 2011