Key findings from a statewide survey of 550 actual 2012 voters
in Alabama conducted November 7-8, 2012.
LORI WEIGEL
122180
PARTNER • LORI@POS.ORG
 Public Opinion Strategies is pleased to present the
key findings of a statewide telephone survey in
Alabama.
 The survey was completed November 7-8, 2012
among 550 voters who indicated having voted in
the 2012 presidential election (which includes an
N=50 oversample of African Americans weighted
to appropriate levels within the statewide
sample). The sample has a margin of error of +
4.18%.
 Lori Weigel was the principal researcher on this
project. Becky Kramer was the project director
with Brian Fraser providing analytical assistance.
 Support for Amendment One was so significant, it
extends across most regions of the state and with all key
demographic and partisan sub-groups.
 The campaign and branding effort was successful in
boosting awareness of Forever Wild. Given the ballot
language, awareness of the program continued to be the
best predictor of support.
 Similarly, the campaign was able to erase the “sportsmen
gap” in previous data and boost support among all key
sub-groups.
 TV ads were more likely to be recalled than any other
single medium of communication.
 Rationales in support of Amendment One largely reflect
the campaign communications and key messages. The
campaign targets also were by far the best ones –
women and African Americans decided later about the
Amendment and ended up supporting it at levels on par
or higher than the rest of the electorate.
 Voters who skipped over the measure largely point to the
ballot language as being too vague or not knowing
enough about the Amendment. Not understanding the
Amendment was also frequently cited by No voters as a
reason for their vote decision.
Fully 78% of survey respondents who say they
voted on Amendment One indicate supporting it
– within margin of error of actual results.
Post-Election Survey Results
Actual Election Results
Yes, In
Favor Of
78%
No,
Against
22%
“I understand the confidentiality of your vote and the privacy of the voting booth, but I want to assure you that this poll is
being completed for research purposes only and that all responses given will remain strictly confidential. In order to help
me do the best research possible, would you now please reconsider and tell me how you voted?”
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
7
The one-in-four who either didn’t recall or say they
didn’t vote on the measure are more likely to be…
Did Not Vote/
Do Not Recall
(25%)
African American Men
54%
Smallest Markets
45%
Democrat Men
42%
Unfamiliar with Forever Wild
42%
Conservative Democrat
40%
High School or Less
39%
Democrats Age 18-49
38%
African American Women
37%
Heard Nothing @ Amend. 1
35%
Democratic women
33%
Small Town
33%
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
8
Among those who voted, a majority say that
they decided in the last few days before or
on Election Day.
31%
26%
23%
Election Day
19%
In the last
few days
In the last
few weeks
A month or more
before you voted
% Voted
“When would you say you made your FINAL decision on which way you were going to vote on
Amendment One in the election?”
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
9
While these late deciders are still
overwhelmingly supportive, they do not match
the support levels of those who decided earlier
in the campaign.
85%
85%
72%
71%
29%
28%
15%
Election Day
(17%)
In the last
few days
(23%)
In the last
few weeks
(14%)
Yes
15%
A month or more
before you voted
(20%)
No
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
10
Younger women and African Americans were
clearly the right targets for the campaign. They
decided later than most voter sub-groups.
Late Deciders
(54%)
Unfamiliar with Forever Wild
71%
Women Age 18-49
67%
Age 18-34
66%
African American Women
65%
Small market Women
65%
Age 35-44
64%
Republican Women
64%
Women College+
63%
Conservative Republican
62%
Moms
62%
African American
60%
Women
59%
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
11
Later in the survey, we provided respondents
with the actual ballot language of Amendment
One. Having heard that, 76% of those who
recall voting say they supported the measure.
“Now, let me read you Amendment One
exactly as it appeared on the ballot…
76%
Proposing an amendment to the
Constitution of Alabama of 1901,
relating to the Forever Wild Land
Trust, to reauthorize the trust for a
20‐year period.
Having heard more about it, did you vote
Yes in favor or no against Amendment
One? Again, if you did not vote on it or
cannot recall how you voted just say so
and we'll go to the next question.”
24%
Yes
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
No
13
One can clearly see that the campaign changed
the dynamics of this race.
Amendment One
October 2011
Mid-October 2012
2012 Post Elect Survey
76%
54%
50%
18%
15%
24%
24%
Definitely
Yes
No
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
14
The survey data underscores that voters of
every type did in fact support Amendment One.
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
15
The measure received broad bipartisan support.
Amendment One Ballot By Party
86%
77%
70%
30%
23%
14%
Republican
(40%)
Independent
(28%)
Yes
Democrat
(31%)
No
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
16
The measure received broad bipartisan support.
Amendment One Ballot By Ideology/Party
80%
69%
31%
20%
Conservative
Republican
(32%)
79%
75%
Moderate/Liberal
Republican
(7%)
25%
Conservative
Independent
(14%)
21%
Moderate/Liberal
Independent
(12%)
Yes
87%
82%
18%
Conservative
Democrat
(8%)
13%
Moderate/Liberal
Democrat
(22%)
No
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
17
Obama voters were somewhat more likely to
support the measure.
Amendment One Ballot By Presidential Ballot
85%
72%
28%
15%
Obama
(38%)
Romney
(61%)
Yes
No
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
18
The Amendment received stronger support
among older Alabamans than young people,
which runs counter to the usual trends.
Amendment One Ballot By Age
76%
72%
24%
Age 18-34
(21%)
72%
28%
Age 35-44
(30%)
28%
Age 45-54
(16%)
Yes
86%
81%
19%
Age 55-64
(17%)
14%
Age 65+
(14%)
No
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
19
And so there was fairly equal support
levels between parents and those without
children at home.
Amendment One Ballot By Parent Status
74%
73%
26%
Dads
(21%)
80%
77%
27%
Moms
(22%)
23%
Men without
Kids
(27%)
Yes
20%
Women without
Kids
(30%)
No
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
20
African American support ended up
being very strong.
Amendment One Ballot By Ethnicity and Ethnicity/Gender
82%
74%
26%
White
(67%)
18%
African American
(29%)
75%
74%
25%
26%
White
Men
(34%)
White
Women
(33%)
Yes
84%
16%
81%
19%
African American African American
Men
Women
(13%)
(16%)
No
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
21
We encountered the opposite dynamic in
the 2011 test of the ballot language.
2011 Amendment One Data By Ethnicity
54%
36%
40%
37%
23%
10%
White
African American
Yes
No
Unsure/Refused
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
22
The campaign erased the “sportsmen gap”
which was so evident in the initial data.
2011 Amendment One Data
By Sportsmen
2012 Amendment One Ballot
By Sportsmen
78%
76%
62%
43%
17% 21%
Sportsmen
(30%)
44%
22%
13%
Non-Sportsmen
(70%)
Yes
No
Sportsmen
(30%)
24%
Non-Sportsmen
(70%)
Unsure/Refused
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
23
Although, those more familiar with Forever Wild
were still slightly more likely to vote Yes.
Amendment One Ballot By Forever Wild Image
87%
78%
73%
27%
22%
Heard Of
(61%)
13%
Unfamiliar
(39%)
Yes
Favorable Image
(46%)
No
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
24
There was strong support among both the
religious and the secular.
Amendment One Ballot By Religious Conservatives and Church Attendance
81%
74%
70%
30%
Religious
Conservatives
(35%)
26%
Frequently
(58%)
74%
19%
Occasionally
(33%)
Yes
26%
Never
(9%)
No
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
25
There was solid support in all
types of communities.
Amendment One Ballot By Area Type
79%
79%
73%
21%
City
(26%)
27%
75%
21%
Suburbs
(20%)
Town
(22%)
Yes
25%
Rural
(31%)
No
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
26
Voters throughout Alabama say they registered
solid support for the measure.
Amendment One Ballot By Media Market and Region
Yes
No
Birmingham
78%
22%
Huntsville
69%
31%
Mobile
86%
14%
Montgomery
73%
27%
Rest of Alabama
74%
26%
North
70%
30%
Central
77%
23%
Belt
79%
21%
Gulf
90%
10%
Lower
67%
33%
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
27
Half say they read the ballot language in advance of
voting, and essentially the same proportion believe
it helped determine how they voted.
50%
49%
47%
39%
Read it before
Did not read it before
Yes/Helped me
No/Did not help me
“And did you have an opportunity to read the actual language of
Amendment One before you voted, OR did you not have the
chance to read the actual language until you were voting?”
“Did the language of Amendment One provide enough information
alone to help determine how you would vote, or did it not provide
enough information to help determine how you would vote?”
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
28
No voters were more likely to find the ballot
language lacking in explaining the measure.
Language Helped By Amendment One Voters
61%
53%
41%
34%
Yes Voter
(78%)
No Voter
(22%)
Yes/Helped me
No/Did not help me
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
29
Respondents who admit skipping Amendment
One are most likely to point to the ballot
language as the reason they did not vote on it.
Number of
Mentions
Didn’t understand language
Wasn’t aware of it
Too many amendments –
too little time
Didn’t agree
Don’t hunt
Didn’t see it
Just moved here
22
18
4
3
2
1
1
“What are the one or two reasons you chose NOT to vote on Amendment One?”
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
30
One of the top rationales No voters cite for their
vote decision was not understanding the ballot
language of the measure.
Number of
Mentions
We should spend money on other
things
Not the government's place to do this
Did not understand ballot language
Takes away $ from other things
Parks have enough land / $
Takings/property rights
Creates a new tax
Tied to UN Agenda 21
20
11
10
7
7
5
3
2
“What are the one or two reasons you chose NOT to vote on Amendment One?”
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
31
Nearly two-in-five voters could correctly
volunteer what Amendment One was about with
any prompting at all – a fairly high proportion.
Top Groups:
Correct
(37%)
32%
6%
Forever Wild Land and water/
Land Trust
environment/
conservation/
wildlife
1%
Parks/trails/
beaches/
recreation
Huntsville Market
47%
Hunters
46%
White
44%
College-educated men
44%
Rural voters
41%
% Correct
“Do you happen to recall what Amendment One, the first constitutional amendment on the ballot, was about?” – Multiple responses allowed.
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
33
There was decidedly higher support among the
44% of voters who recall seeing significant
information about this measure.
Forever Wild Ballot By Amendment One
Awareness
84%
71%
% Seen…
A Lot
16%
Some
28%
Not Much
26%
Nothing At All
29%
29%
16%
A Lot/Some
(44%)
Not Much/Nothing
(55%)
Yes
No
“In the weeks before the election, how much did you see, read or hear about Amendment One?”
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
34
Three in ten mention seeing ads on TV, and
numerous others cite the specific content of
those ads as what they saw about the measure.
“And what specifically do you recall having seen, read or heard about Amendment One, prior to the election?”
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
35
2012 voters also noticed that there was very
little opposition.
“I remember seeing Gene Stallings and Pat
standing on a field, in what appeared to be
hunting gear, and how we needed to vote for
amendment one. I heard things in the local
(talk) radio, and the sports radio opposing to
not vote for it due to how the money set aside
for Alabama Wild was being stifled off on other
things, so he said to vote against it. All (ads)
were advocating for it.”
– 35-44 year old White Man in Madison County
“Everything was for it, and no commercials
against it. One was a couple of coaches in
the area recommending everyone vote yes.
Another one was a couple of moms taking
their children after school to run around in
the wild. They just kept running those two
(ads) over, and over again.
– Suburban Moderate Woman in Jefferson
County
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
36
In fact, voters were most likely to recall TV ads
of any communication utilized in this effort.
TV ads
50%
Radio ads
24%
Newspaper or magazine ads
Mail
Automated phone call to your home
Campaign materials left at your front
door or provided at community events
21%
9%
7%
5%
Yes
“More specifically, please tell me whether you saw, heard or received any of the following types of information about
Amendment One, regarding the Forever Wild Land Trust.”
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
37
Voters who got information from ANY
source – even talk radio – ended up
voting Yes by wide margins.
Amendment One Language By Info Source
Yes
No
TV ads
82%
18%
Radio ads
79%
21%
Paper/Magazine ads
93%
7%
Mail
82%
18%
News on TV
84%
16%
News in paper
90%
10%
Talk radio
67%
33%
Social media
88%
12%
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
38
It is clear that Yes voters support the measure
because it is good for Alabama’s natural lands.
Number of
Mentions
Protect natural habitats and wildlife
Preserve for future generations
Hunting and fishing
Outdoor recreation
Access to public land
Preserve natural resources
Endorsements and advertisements
A good place to invest
Keep Alabama beautiful
71
38
34
33
29
20
16
13
12
“What are the one or two reasons you voted In Favor/Against Amendment One regarding the Forever Wild Land Trust?”
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
39
Yes voters mimic back some of the messaging –
about kids, no cost and the places.
“I just love nature
and the beaches.”
– 35-44 year old
African American man
in Madison County
“I think it's a good idea to preserve
ourselves, our natural heritage…Oh
and it didn't cost me anything.
Preserving the natural green space for
our children to enjoy. That's it. And the
cost was, well, there was no cost for
it.” – Senior man in Madison County
“Because we've always loved
the place where we live, we’ve
enjoyed it, and I think future
generations should have the
same privilege…I think it's the
joy of being in the forest, the
parks. Everyone should have
the advantage to that if they
want to. We’ve always
camped.” -- Senior woman in
Calhoun County
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
40
Awareness of Forever Wild shot up
dramatically from last year.
2011 Forever Wild Awareness
2012 Forever Wild Awareness
61%
46%
32%
29%
Heard Of
Favorable
Unfavorable
“Do you have a favorable opinion or an unfavorable opinion of the Alabama Forever Wild Program? If you are unfamiliar
with the program, please just tell me that.”
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
41
The top sub-groups which are more
aware of Forever Wild today, include…
% Increase in
Awareness
Huntsville Market
+40%
Women
+39%
Rural Voters
+34%
City Residents
+33%
White Democrats
+33%
Independents
+32%
Non-sportsmen
+31%
Birmingham market
+30%
African American
women
+30%
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
42
The proportion of voters who thought
Amendment One would increase their taxes also
was significantly lower than in past surveys.
% Almost Certain/Very Likely
To Increase
“Now that Amendment One has been approved, is that taxes will increase almost certain to happen, very likely,
somewhat likely, or not that likely to happen?”
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
43
And 2012 voters clearly saw the measure as
providing benefits with few buying into critics’
central concerns about the amendment.
Ranked By Almost Certain/Very Likely
We will protect wildlife and our natural
resources for future generations
Alabama will protect its economy by
conserving natural areas, like beaches, that
attract tourists
19%
We will protect sources of clean drinking water
19%
Our quality of life will be maintained
It will increase the government land grab of
private property in Alabama
64%
22%
55%
50%
41%
16%
8%
20%
Almost Certain
Very Likely
“I am going to read you some things that some people said would happen if voters approved Amendment One
regarding Forever Wild. After each one, please tell me how likely you think that is to happen now that the amendment
has been approved.”
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
44
Voters who skipped over Amendment One
are closer to the views of No voters in their
assumptions about the measure’s outcome.
Yes
No
Skipped
We will protect wildlife and our natural
resources for future generations
78%
39%
37%
Alabama will protect its economy by
conserving natural areas, like beaches,
that attract tourists
63%
38%
34%
We will protect sources of clean drinking
water
59%
30%
31%
Our quality of life will be maintained
51%
20%
15%
Taxes will increase
19%
53%
40%
It will increase the government land grab
of private property in Alabama
13%
36%
12%
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
45
The kind of information also affected voters. While we
know water tested as the strongest benefit in previous
surveys, the communications focusing on other aspects
of the measure are reflected in supporters’ rationales
for voting Yes.
Ranked By First Choice
Places for outdoor recreation and where kids can play
13%
Places to hunt and fish
12%
Sources of clean drinking water
26%
19%
19%
10%
14%
State parks
7%
Places that attract tourists and benefit the economy
6%
12%
Beaches and coastal areas
5%
12%
Water quality of rivers, lakes and streams
5%
Protecting Wildlife/Environment
11%
1%
“I'd like to read you just a few of the ways in which funds from the Forever Wild program are used here in Alabama and
please tell me which one was most important in your vote decision. The Forever Wild program protects.”
2012 Alabama Post Election Survey
46
 The effort behind the Forever Wild amendment
overcame vague ballot language to achieve strong
support across virtually all sub-groups, all regions of
the state and all partisan distinctions.
 The simultaneous branding effort helped to connect the
dots for many voters and generated greater awareness
and a favorable impression. Both bear a strong
relationship with support for the amendment.
 2012 voters clearly received the campaign’s messages.
For example, the perception that the measure would
increase taxes is significantly lower than on previous
surveys, for example.
 The data also demonstrates that the campaign was
correct in its efforts to communicate with younger
women and African Americans as they were far more
likely to have decided late. African American women
ended up being one of the strongest sub-groups in
support of the Amendment – a dramatic turnaround
from one year ago.
 It is also clear in this uncluttered market that TV still
made the biggest impression on voters. Yes voters are
most likely to mimic back the key elements highlighted
in the TV ads.
 Finally, it is worth noting that few buy the arguments of
critics about the measure.
PARTNER • LORI@POS.ORG
Phone: (303) 433-4424 • Fax: (303) 433-4253
Web: www.pos.org