Commission for Developing
Scotland’s Young Workforce
Background, Conclusions and
Implementation Programme
Background to the Commission
• The Commission for Developing Scotland’s Young
Workforce was established in January 2013
• Chaired by Sir Ian Wood, it drew its membership from
Scotland’s industry and education communities.
• It was asked to develop recommendations to Scottish
Ministers and COSLA on:
– Improvements to vocational and further education starting in
the senior phase of CfE; and
– Increasing employer engagement with education and youth
employment
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Approach
• Significant amount of evidence gathering
• Direct face to face discussions (300+ people)
• 2 consultations and a number of ad-hoc information
collection exercises
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National summit
Young people’s summit
Employers seminar
HR directors seminar
• A number of regional sessions (Galashiels to Stornoway)
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Since the start of the economic downturn youth unemployment has risen more quickly
than for other age groups
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Unemployment rates for young people are
consistently higher than those for other age groups,
and have also seen the largest increases in the last
few years.
For 16-24s, initially (2008-2010) the sharp rise was
due to more young people continuing in full-time
education. This shift to education was largely from
employment, causing the overall active population to
shrink.
•
Consequently, unemployed young people accounted
for a larger proportion of the remaining active
population.
•
Between 2010 and 2011, the increase in the
unemployment rate was driven by increasing
unemployment.
•
The unemployment rate for young people has fallen
over the last two years but remains high by historical
standards.
unemployed
Unemployment rate =
workers + unemployed
Unemployment rates in Scotland by age
Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan – Dec, 2004 to 2013. ONS (2005-2014)
Young people are important in the labour force
•
For at least the next 40 years, today’s young people (16-24s) will form part of Scotland’s working age population
(defined as all people aged 16 to 64).
By 2030, every person aged under 25 today (2014) will be aged between 16 and 40. Not including migrants,
projections suggest this group will account for 45 per cent of the total working age population in 2030.
Looking only at those young people aged under 16 today, they will account for 27 per cent of the working age
population in 2030.
Over time, estimates suggest the working age population will form a smaller part of the overall population falling from 65 per cent in 2014 to 59 per cent in 2030.
In Scotland in 2013, there were around 593,000 young people aged between 16 and 24 (Annual Population
Survey, Jan-Dec 2013).
Just under half of these young people were in full-time education, just over half were not. Most young people
not enrolled in full-time education were working.
Many young people who are in full-time education also work.
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Estimated change in Scotland’s population 2014 to 2030
Young people in Scotland’s Labour Market, Jan - Dec 2013
6,000,000
593,000
16-24 year olds in Scotland
5,000,000
65+
4,000,000
Everyone under 25 in
2013 will be aged 16+ in
2029. This represents
45% of the total
working age population
in that year.
3,000,000
260,000
enrolled in full-time education
331,000
not enrolled in full-time education
25-64
85,000
in employment
2,000,000
16,000 are
underemployed
42,000 are
underemployed
227,000
in employment
16-24
147,000
inactive
1,000,000
28,000
unemployed
2014
51,000
inactive
20,000 are inactive as they are looking after
family or home
0-15
0
10,000 are inactive due to temporary or long
term sickness
22,000 are inactive for other reasons including
because they are a student
53,000
unemployed
2030
Source: Projected Population of Scotland (2012-based). National Records of Scotland (2013)
Source: Annual Population Survey Jan – Dec 2013. Office of National Statistics (ONS) (2014)
The cost of youth unemployment is significant
•
Being unemployed while young can affect future earnings
as wages remain lower throughout their working life, even
if the person is not unemployed again. It can also increase
the chances of being unemployed again.
•
Other consequences of being unemployed when young
emerge later in life including lower life satisfaction and
happiness, poorer health, a higher risk of depression and
lower job satisfaction. The longer the initial spell of
unemployment, the greater the negative effect.
•
Those most at risk of the long term effects of youth
unemployment are school leavers and vulnerable young
people with low skills, no/low qualifications and no or little
work experience. In 2013, there were 29,000 young
people aged 16-19 not in education, employment or
training.
•
Number of under 25s unemployed by duration 2013
Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan – Dec 2013. ONS (2014)
All under 25s unemployed for 12 months +
Estimates in 2012 suggested that the average annual cost
in benefits of a young unemployed person (18-24) is
£5,661.51. Based on this, moving 100 of these young
jobseekers into employment would save over £500,000 a
year in benefit spend.
Other sources:
Local Area Labour Markets in Scotland - Statistics from the Annual Population Survey 2013. Scottish Government (2014)
The Cost of Exclusion: Counting the Cost of Youth Disadvantage in the UK. Prince’s Trust (2010)
The Cost of Youth Unemployment. ACEVO Commission on Youth Unemployment (2012)
Young People and the Great Recession. Bell and Blanchflower (2011)
A Stalled Generation: Transitions to Adulthood in Scotland Today. Anderson, S & Dowling, S (2012)
Source: Annual Population Survey, Jan – Dec 2013. ONS (2014)
Many young people leave secondary school without achieving any Highers
•
Around 51,000 young people left school in
2011/12. When leaving school, just over half
had attained a highest qualification which was
at Higher (SCQF 6) or above.
•
Some groups of young people are more likely
than others to leave school with lower levels
of qualifications. These include looked after
children, young people with disabilities and
those from the most deprived backgrounds.
•
The risk of becoming unemployed is greater
for those with the lowest qualifications. Four
out of every 10 young people who attained a
qualification at SCQF level 3 or below become
unemployed on leaving school.
•
However, the number of young people leaving
school with low qualifications (SCQF level 3
or below) is small. This means that only
around one third of all unemployed school
leavers have low qualifications.
•
Even though they are less likely to become
unemployed, the much larger groups of
school leavers attaining qualifications at SCQF
level 4 and 5 account for around two thirds of
all unemployed school leavers.
Highest qualification of all secondary school leavers , 2011/12
Source: Summary Statistics For Attainment, Leaver Destinations and Healthy Living No. 3, – Follow
Up Destinations 2011/12. Scottish Government (2013)
Destinations of all secondary school leavers , 2011/12
Source: Summary Statistics For Attainment, Leaver Destinations and Healthy Living No. 3, – Follow
Up Destinations 2011/12. Scottish Government (2013)
Young people can face difficulties when moving into the labour market
• The current labour market is challenging for all job seekers with only 45
per cent of employers in Scotland recruiting in 2012. Only three out of
every 10 employers recruited a young person.
Proportion of employers in Scotland recruiting by size, 2012
• The smallest firms (2-4 employees) are those least likely to recruit a
young person (or to recruit at all) but, because they are the largest
group of employers, they still account for around a quarter of all
employers who did recruit a young person.
• The two main reasons given by employers who did recruit but did not
take on any young people were that the young people were not of
sufficient quality or that no young people had applied.
• The most commonly mentioned issues relating to the quality of young
applicants were: a lack of work experience; a lack of skills; poor
attitude and motivation; a lack of qualifications; and a poor quality
application.
• The way employers recruit also has an impact on young people looking
for work. Informal recruitment methods, such as word of mouth, can
disadvantage young people who may not have these networks in place
or be able to access these networks through family or friends.
Source: Employer Perspectives Survey 2012. UKCES (2013)
Number of employers in Scotland recruiting by size, 2012
• A 2013 survey looked specifically at the recruitment of education
leavers, and found that 29 per cent of Scottish employers had recruited
any education leaver. 17 per cent had recruited school leavers, 11 per
cent had recruited college leavers, and 12 per cent had recruited higher
education leavers.
• The survey also found that 65 per cent considered school leavers to be
prepared, rising to 78 per cent amongst those employing recruits from
FE colleges and to 85 per cent for recruiters of Scottish HE graduates.
Source: Employer Perspectives Survey 2012. UKCES (2013)
Other source: Employer Skills Survey 2013. UKCES (2014)
Modern Apprenticeships offer a route to sustainable employment
•
In 2013/14 there were 25,284 Modern Apprenticeship
(MA) new starts. Half of these (52 per cent) were
aged 16-19, around one quarter (27 per cent) were
aged 20-24 and the remainder (21 per cent) were
aged 25+.
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The bulk of MAs were at Level 3 (59 per cent) and
Level 2 (28 per cent). Only 3 per cent of MAs were at
Level 4 and around 0.5 per cent were at Level 5.
•
The majority (80 per cent) of MAs in Scotland last for
more than one year, more than half (58 per cent) last
for more than 2 years.
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In 2012/13, the most commonly undertaken MA
frameworks by 16-19s were Business &
Administration, Hospitality, Retail and Construction.
For 20-24s, those most commonly undertaken were
Hospitality, Health and Social Care, and Retail.
MAs offer a route to sustainable employment - in
2012/13 nearly all apprentices (86 per cent) were in
work 6 months after leaving their apprenticeship. The
likelihood of being in work after leaving a MA
increases with the age of the apprentice and the level
of the apprenticeship.
Modern Apprenticeship
New Starts 2013/14 (No.)
Source: Training Programmes statistics 2013/14
Skills Development Scotland (SDS) (2014)
In work 6 months after
leaving MA 2012/13 (%)
Source: MA Outcomes Survey
2012/13, SDS (2013)*
Most commonly undertaken frameworks (volume of new
starts) by age 2012/13
All Levels
16-19
20-24
Business & Administration (1,670)
Hospitality (1,226)
Retail (1,203)
Construction (1,165)
Engineering (1,112)
Hairdressing (989)
Childrens Care, Learning & Development (949)
Automotive (761)
Health and Social Care (526)
Customer Service (407)
Hospitality (1,580)
Health and Social Care (1,116)
Retail (788)
Customer Service (442)
Business & Administration (384)
Freight Logistics (381)
Construction (328)
Management (261)
Food Manufacture (240)
Engineering (215)
Source: Training Programme Statistics, 2012/13* SDS (2013)
*2013/14 data not yet available at time of writing
The majority of employers are not involved in apprenticeships, those that are report high
satisfaction
•
Only 13 per cent of establishments in Scotland currently have or
offer apprenticeships. Smaller employers are much less likely to
have/offer apprenticeships than larger employers. However, in
terms of the volume of employers involved, the smallest
employers (2-4 employees) are the largest group.
•
There are two main reasons why employers in Scotland do not
currently offer apprenticeships – they either actively choose not
to (staff are already fully skilled or they prefer to recruit skilled
staff) or they perceive a range of structural barriers which
prevent them from doing so (apprenticeships are not offered for
their industry, are not suitable for their business or they
currently have a recruitment freeze).
•
Satisfaction of Scottish employers involved with MAs is high with
85 per cent reporting they were satisfied with the relevance of
the training to their needs and 83 per cent stating they were
satisfied with the quality of the training provided.
•
Many Scottish employers who offer MAs have been offering
them for several years. Nearly three quarters have been offering
them for more than three years and over a third for more than
10 years.
•
Over half (53 per cent) of Scottish employers who are involved
with MAs said were vital to their business and a further 22 per
cent viewed them as important.
Proportion of establishments in Scotland who have
apprentices or currently offer an apprenticeship by size
and sector
Source: UK Employer Perspective Survey 2012. UKCES (2013)
Other sources:
Modern Apprenticeship Employer Survey 2012. SDS (2013)
Establishments in Scotland who have apprentices
or currently offer an apprenticeship by size
Source: UK Employer Perspective Survey 2012. UKCES (2013)
The transition story for young people varies
• Most young people move into a ‘positive destination’ after
leaving school. This includes continuing their education, starting
work, training, undertaking voluntary work or an activity
agreement. However, the underlying transition story is more
complex.
• Similar to young women, the majority of black and minority
ethnic young people continue their education after leaving
school. Just over half (53%) of all Non-white young people are in
higher education 9 months after leaving school. Again, they tend
to be concentrated into a limited range of subjects.
• Girls are most likely to continue their education after leaving
school - nearly 7 out of every 10 female school leavers go down
this route (4 to higher education, 3 to further education).
However, they tend to cluster into specific subject areas,
reflecting the wider occupational segregation seen in the labour
market.
• Half of all young people with a declared or assessed disability are
in further education 9 months after leaving school. However, by
the time they are 26 they are four times as likely to be
unemployed as their non-disabled peers. Those in work will be
earning 11% less than others with the same level of qualification.
• Looked after children are least likely to go into a positive
destination after leaving school – one in three are unemployed 9
months after leaving school. Very few go into higher education.
This is related to looked after children leaving school at a young
age with low levels of qualifications.
Destinations of all secondary school leavers by characteristic , 2011/12
• Over half of male school leavers continue their education. They
are more likely to go into work after leaving school than their
female peers.
Chart notes:
1 White includes White-Scottish, White-Other, WhiteGypsy Traveller, White-Other British, White-Irish or
White-Polish. All other known categories are classified
as Non-White.
2 Data for Non-White young people in Activity
Agreements is suppressed due to small numbers.
3 Disability is either declared or assessed.
1,2
3
Chart sources: Summary Statistics for Attainment, Leaver Destinations and Healthy Living No. 3, – Follow Up Destinations 2011/12. Scottish Government (2013)
Education Outcomes for Scotland’s Looked After Children, 2011/12. Scottish Government, (2013)
Other sources: Fulfilling Potential Slide Pack. Office for Disability Issues
Some countries have consistently low youth unemployment but the reasons are complex
•
International youth unemployment rates vary
widely and the reasons for these differences are
complex. These could include the education
system, labour market institutions and the
strength of the national economy.
•
In some countries, youth unemployment has
remained low despite the global economic
downturn. Countries such as Germany, Austria
and the Netherlands have consistently had low
youth unemployment over the last 5 years.
•
Other countries, such as Spain and Greece, have
persistent and high levels of youth
unemployment. This has been a feature of their
labour market for some time.
Other sources:
International Lessons: Youth Unemployment in the Global Context. The Work Foundation (2013)
Youth (15-24) Unemployment Rate – EU 28 and
Scotland – February 2014 (non-seasonally adjusted)
Notes
1. Estimates for Scotland and UK from the LFS, Jan-Mar 2014 and covers those
aged 16-24. Rankings for Scotland and the UK are based on unrounded data. Data
for other EU countries are from Eurostat.
2. * indicated data rolled over from most recently data available
3. UK includes Scotland
Source: Labour Market Briefing – May 2014. Scottish Government (2014)
International Best Practice
• The best performing European countries in terms
of youth unemployment have 2 things in
common:
– A highly regarded vocational education system which
starts in secondary school and allows for progression
with a significant element of work-based learning; and
– Significant employer involvement in the development
and delivery of education.
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Headline Findings
• Focus on university pathways in schools.
• Careers advice starting too late to influence choices.
• College system going through significant reform – creates
opportunities.
• Limited progression opportunities within MAs – opportunities to
develop.
• Limited employer engagement with education.
• Poor parental understanding of options.
• Work experience is of fundamental importance to young people
and employers but is generally very formulaic.
• Some groups of young people are at greater risk of employment
than others.
• Majority of young people leaving school with only limited
preparation for what comes next.
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Headline Recommendations
• Earlier range of career education opportunities to a
national standard
• New approach to work experience
• Senior phase vocational pathways delivered in partnership
between schools and colleges
• Expansion of Modern Apprenticeships at the higher levels
• Regional Invest in Youth Groups
• Focus on small employers and young people facing barriers
within recruitment incentives
• Sustained focus on addressing equalities issues
• Focus on Key Performance Indicators
Government Response
• Developing the Young Workforce Programme
2014-2021
• Our vision: To develop Scotland’s young
workforce by providing young people with
learning which is directly relevant to getting a
job, benefiting individuals and improving the
economy through increased youth
employment
Responding to ambitious recommendations
• Fundamental cultural change (parents, young
people, schools, employers) + accompanying
further development of supporting policy =
system change
• Changing the way we support at least half of all
young people into employment.
• Covers a range of Ministerial portfolios
Government response – changing the system through
a seven year programme
Short term: business shaping apprenticeships ; new
invest in youth accolades; employability features in
school inspections;
Medium term: senior phase pathways introduced for
learners; roll out of high level apprenticeships;
Longer term: learners benefiting from these
opportunities will enter labour market from end of
academic year 2016/17 and beyond.
Engaging those intended to benefit
• Parents and teachers – need to feel confident that Highers and university
aren’t the only route to success and that the pursuit of vocational
qualifications do not limit aspirations; need to be informed about the
variety of options on offer.
• Young people – need to consider different options with a clear view about
their job prospects.
• Employers – need to recruit younger people and take on a role in
education and training.
• But none of these groups can be brigaded easily.
• We need to influence their thinking through innovative engagement, at
both a national and regional level.
Governance Structure
National Advisory Group
Political and senior
stakeholder leadership
Programme Board
Change Themes
Schools
A more intensive,
industry influenced
focus on employability
within the CfE broad
general education
• Career education in
schools;
• Careers advice;
• Teacher Education.
Colleges
Clearer vocational pathways,
starting in the senior phase
which lead to industry
recognised qualifications
A college system fully
focussed on
employability and
responding to
industry’s skills needs
at the regional and
national levels
• Regional & Local
structured creation of
senior phase vocational
pathways;
• Interventions to support
re-engagement;
• Measuring attainment
across academic and
vocational routes.
• Focusing college
outcome
agreements;
• Higher level
skills/STEM;
• Employment
services.
Equalities
Apprenticeship
opportunities for young
people to achieve a
flexible set of
qualifications up to and
including degree level
while in work.
• Higher level MAs
targeted on
economic growth;
• STEM ring-fence;
• Access to
apprenticeships;
• Pre-apprenticeship
training.
A system
underpinned by
industry
engagement
• Education
Scotland focus
on industry;
• Skills planning;
• Employer
contribution.
The right elements for change
• A clear vision
• A defined set of actions and measures
• An approach of building on existing assets with renewed
focus and some additional resource
• A disciplined Programme management approach
• Implementation plans, set in context of refreshed youth
employment strategy, published at the end of 2014
• A means of sustaining the political will through the National
Advisory Group
Key Documents
• Commission report
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2014/06/4089
• Implementation plan
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Education/edandtrainingf
oryoungple/ScottishGovernmentResponse/DevelopingYoung
WorkforceStrategy
Questions?