The 2015 General Election
Revision Document
Key results and statistics
The electoral system
Legitimacy
Turnout
Party membership: update
How representative is the new Parliament and Cabinet?
Some extras: constitutional implications; pressure groups; parties
Mark Graham, Bedford School
June 2015
1
Election Update 2015
So, there has been no Hung Parliament, no constitutional crisis, no ‘rainbow coalition’ and no
minority government. There are no members of the DUP, or of the Liberal Democrats, or the SNP, or
anyone else sitting around the Cabinet table – only Conservatives, many of them drawn from the
right of the party.1 First Past the Post, in spite of a powerful endorsement in 2011, has gone back to
doing what it does best; a 12-seat majority does not guarantee anything ‘strong and stable’, but we
do have a single party in power, with a mandate to implement a manifesto and no need for any
compromise with a junior, and ideologically very different coalition partner.
Of course, big questions remain over the electoral system. This is likely to lead to a rather
incongruous alliance of UKIP, Greens and Lib Dems all seeking to create a fairer, more proportional
system. Douglas Carswell, UKIP’s only MP, summed up the situation on election night: "I think
tonight's result, whatever the result, will raise some profound questions about the sustainability of
an electoral system that's designed for two-party politics in a world of multi-party politics."2
Let’s look at the facts. The results were as follows:
Voter share (%)
Conservatives
36.9%
Labour
30.4%
UKIP
12.6%
Lib Dems
7.9%
SNP
4.7%
Greens
3.8%




Seats (%)
50.9%
35.7%
0.2%
1.2%
8.6%
0.2%
No. of seats
331 (+24)
232 (-26)
1
8 (-49)
56 (+50)
1
The SNP won 56/59 seats in Scotland, almost a complete whitewash and a catastrophic, and
historically unprecedented reversal of fortunes for Labour, for whom Scotland had always
been seen as an ideological heartland, and for the Liberal Democrats, many of whose senior
politicians, including at Cabinet level, lost their seats. In fact the Lib Dems appear to have
been almost literally pushed off the top of the electoral map, their only Scottish seat being
the remote Orkney & Shetland.
The Conservatives strengthened their dominance in the South East of England (outside of
London) while holding UKIP at bay in key marginals in the region. Interestingly, Labour also
increased their share of the vote, by 1.5% (almost double what the Tories achieved at only
0.8%), yet they lost 10.1% of their seats, including 40/41 of the Scottish seats won in 2010.
It is worth noting that the UKIP share of the vote increased by 9.5% from 2010. This is by far
the biggest increase of any of the parties (next is the SNP, on 3.2%). UKIP came second in
c.100 constituencies and, also following on from its European Election victory in 2014, can
now comfortably regarded as the UK’s third-largest political party.
The Lib Dems dropped just over 15% of their vote share and really paid the price, losing 86%
of their seats across the UK. They lost all four of their 2010 seats in the South East. In the
Green Party's only seat of Brighton Pavilion, Caroline Lucas increased her majority but
leader Natalie Bennett (who came 3rd in Holborn and St Pancras, with only 13% of the vote),
as with Nigel Farage, failed to win her own constituency contest.
1
We should be careful of stereotyping all Conservatives as right-wingers, however, as shown here by Tim Bale:
http://www.psa.ac.uk/insight-plus/members-only-views-conservative-party%E2%80%99s-rank-and-file
2
http://www.itv.com/news/anglia/update/2015-05-08/douglas-carswell-says-new-government-must-reformelectoral-system/
2
How many seats did it take to elect an MP?
DUP
SNP
Conservatives
Labour
Lib Dems
Greens
UKIP
23,000
26,000
34,000
40,000
302,000
1.2m
3.9m
If the election had been held under a proportional voting system using the D’Hondt method of
converting votes to seats, the results would have been very different:3
Under PR
Actual
Conservatives
240
331
Labour
213
232
UKIP
83
1
Lib Dems
53
8
SNP
25
56
Greens
24
1
Note: There is a slight discrepancy in the PR figure
for the SNP in the table and the chart here. The
smaller figure is the one provided by the BBC and is
the more reliable, although the difference does
underline the range of PR systems available. Still,
the basic points stand that the SNP, which won 50%
of the vote in Scotland (and therefore attracted the
support of significantly less than half the eligible
Scottish population) would not have been as
dominant in Scotland under PR.
Source (Chart): Daily Express Online4
3
Figures on this page taken from the Independent on Sunday, 10 May 2015
Rob Virtue, ‘'An AFFRONT to democracy' - Ukip would have won 83 SEATS under a 'fair' voting system’
UPDATED: 09:57, Sat, May 9, 2015 http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/575888/Ukip-would-have-83seats-under-proportional-representation
4
3
As noted above, although it was disappointed not to win more MPs, UKIP did finish second in
around 100 constituencies.
Source: Daily Telegraph Online5
Bloomberg analysts identified further
anomalies caused by the electoral system:6
 More of the 46.4m voters - just over 1/3 –
chose not to vote than opted for the
Conservatives, who secured the votes of fewer
than one in four eligible voters.
 Almost 1 in 4 of those who did vote chose
either the UKIP, the Lib Dems or the Greens;
they are represented by 1.5% of all MPs.
 Fewer than 185,000 supporters of the DUP
in Northern Ireland now have as much
representation in the House of Commons - 8
lawmakers - as the 2.4m who voted Lib Dem.
The DUP has 8x as much representation in the
House of Commons as UKIP, which won almost
3.9m votes: 21x more than the Northern Irish
party. It also has 8x more MPs than the Greens,
who secured 6x as many votes.
 N.I.’s Alliance Party, with more than 61,000
votes, was the biggest not to secure a single
lawmaker, losing its only MP.
Election 2015: Maps of turnout and party strength
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32624405
“The Conservatives have won 331 seats, securing a parliamentary majority after all 650
constituencies declared. They have made a net gain of 24 seats and their share of the vote increased
by 0.8%. Labour have seen their share of the vote increase more than the Conservatives, up 1.5%
but they have made a net loss of 26 seats, mainly due to the advances made by the Scottish National
Party.”
5
Matthew Goodwin, ‘What Ukip's civil war is really about’. 7:29PM BST 15 May 2015
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11609337/Nigel-Farage-has-vanquished-his-enemies-fornow.html
6
Adapted from: Alex Morales, ‘Seven Voting Anomalies That the U.K. Electoral System Produced’. 4:33PM BST
08 May 2015 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-08/seven-voting-anomalies-that-the-u-kelectoral-system-produced
4
The electoral system: further comment and debate
Problems and criticisms
Dan Snow called immediately after the 2015 election for a change to the electoral system.7 Clearly a
passionate advocate of voting reform, he asked ‘How screwed up does an electoral system have to
be before we change it? Another election, another result that bears too little resemblance to the
votes cast. Another election that exacerbates regional divides, that rips the very fabric of the country
apart. Another election where around a third of people don’t even bother to vote, partly because
they know that that vote is a waste.’
Snow challenges the idea that FPTP delivers strong, stable government, pointing out that this is less
likely when people vote for a range of parties (or at least more than two), as has happened recently.
Perhaps contrary to popular belief, he points out that ‘for more than a quarter of the past 100 years
we have had hung parliaments, minority governments or governments with a slim majority of less
than 25, which often ended up losing that majority through attrition.’
Further constitutional and other problems identified by Snow:



FPTP allows pro-Independence campaigners to argue Scotland is treated unfairly by having
to accept a Tory government it didn’t vote for. Of course, this could be said by people in
many parts of the UK; the Conservatives won a majority on 37% of the vote. Governments
very rarely have genuine majority support.
FPTP makes the UK look more regionally divided than it actually is. For example, we might
assume the NE and NW are all Labour, the south of England excluding London is all
Conservative, Wales is all Labour and Scotland is all SNP, but this discounts millions of voters
across the country. Still, by adding to the impression in certain regions that they are unfairly
represented by an alien government, we encourage further moves towards federalism,
which some would be greatly concerned by. Snow: ‘As the Electoral Reform Society has
demonstrated with its figures from the council elections of 2011, the image of an all-red
north and an all-blue south is distorting and bogus. Britain is not like that: the north-south
divide is in large part inflated and illusory – to a great extent, down to our broken voting
system. We have an electoral system that exaggerates differences, rather than helping to
resolve them. That makes us look more fractured as a society, rather than emphasising what
we have in common. And, as a result, about a third of UK citizens of voting age have turned
their backs on it.’
Millions of people this year decided to look beyond the ‘Big Two’ mainstream parties and,
rather than decide not to vote, made a commitment to finding out about and supporting an
alternative. However, the 16% of voters (almost 5million people) who did this will have been
discouraged by the derisory number of seats won by these parties.
7
Dan Snow, ‘If the Tories carry on like this, they will destroy our United Kingdom.’
The Independent Online. Sunday 10 May 2015. http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/if-the-tories-carry-onlike-this-they-will-destroy-britain-10238895.html
5
Any other options?
John Rentoul, writing in the Independent on Sunday, refers to the ‘apparent perversity’ of the result,
which has prompted ‘renewed demands for a change in Britain’s voting system.’8 Farage has spoken
out strongly in favour of this, referring that his party had only one MP in spite of it attracting roughly
the same number of votes as the Lib Dems and SNP combined. The UKIP manifesto calls for “a new,
proportional voting system that delivers a Parliament truly reflective of the number of votes cast,
while retaining a constituency link”.
There are a range of options out there, of course, but we’ve had this discussion before, and ‘AV Plus’
was suggested. Proposed by Liberal Lord Jenkins for Blair in 1998, ‘this would involve electing most
MPS by AV, but would also elect a sixth of MPs to “top up” under-represented parties in regional
groups of constituencies. The results would usually be pretty close to matching the proportion of
seats with the proportion of votes cast for parties.’ It isn’t used anywhere in the world, but it’s seen
as a more proportional version of AV, which the referendum was held on in 2011. AV (Alternative
Vote) doesn’t differ much from the present system other than that it allows voters to number
candidates in order of preference; it doesn’t necessarily lead to a more proportional outcome than
FPTP. AV is used in Australia, where voting is compulsory.
Other PR systems include STV (Single Transferable Vote) in multi-member constituencies, where
voters elect several MPs, having marked them in order of preference, to represent a large
constituency and may vote for candidates of different parties (used in NI, Irish Republic & Scottish
local council elections), the List system, where people vote for party lists and party candidates, who
have been listed in order of party preference, are then elected in direct proportion to the
percentage of votes received by each party (used in European Parliament elections (excluding NI),
Israel and the Netherlands), and AMS (Added Member System), backed by the Greens and used in
the Scottish Parliament, which is similar to AC Plus but has a greater top-up element.
So, given that we have such a variety of systems already in use in the UK (and we haven’t even
mentioned the majoritarian ‘Supplementary Vote’ system used to elect the London Mayor), the
Westminster Parliament begins to look like something of an anachronism, and a very unfair one at
that. However, FPTP outcomes are distorted by the amount of tactical voting that goes on across the
country; we would not get the same raw voter results under a different system. As Rentoul
concludes:
‘The most important thing to remember is that voters would behave differently under a
different system, so you cannot assume that the votes cast last week would represent
people’s first preferences if the rules were changed.’
Read more about the different electoral systems currently in use, and their various advantages and
disadvantages: http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/voting-systems/ (Electoral Reform Society)
8
John Rentoul, ‘UKIP and the Greens lead the call for change’. IoS 10 May 2015
6
Legitimacy
Here’s a standard textbook definition of ‘Legitimacy’, from Edexcel guru Neil McNaughton:
‘Legitimacy refers to the degree to which the state or its government can be considered to
have the right to exercise power. A state or government can be said to be legitimate if it has
a valid claim to rule.’9
Two weeks before election night, BBC Deputy Political Editor James Lansdale suggested we would
have to re-define ‘legitimacy’ in the aftermath of what was expected to be another Hung Parliament,
writing ‘politics is sailing into turbulent constitutional waters’; he added: ‘One of the big dynamics of
the next parliament, I believe, will be a tension between what is legal, what is constitutional, what is
precedented - and what the voters think is right and proper and legitimate.’10
Below is a summary of Lansdale’s concerns, with some post-election commentary:



Would it be legitimate for David Cameron - if defeated - to remain as PM while other
parties tried to form a new government? This seemed a particularly vexed question as it
was anticipated that negotiations might be more complicated than in 2010, perhaps taking
several weeks to resolve. Remember, Belgium took almost 18 months to appoint a
government in 2010-11 and there have been notable problems in Greece, Italy and Israel in
recent years, to name but a few. Such a lengthy delay would not have happened earlier this
month, of course, but Cameron would have most likely been holding the fort for a longer
period than Gordon Brown did in 2010. As it is, those who are unhappy with the idea of
coalition government can now rest easy that we do not have to face the prospect of more
deal-making behind closed doors and a government which no one voted for – although the
fact these arguments came to the fore during the campaign might suggest we are not as
comfortable with the idea of PR as some might suggest.
A smaller party holding the balance of power was another concern. Several questions
emerged with regard to the Liberal Democrats. If they had lost a significant number of seats
(say they were left with 20-30) but still had enough MPs to help one of the other ‘big two’
UK parties form a government, clearly this would grant them a decisive amount of political
power in spite of a collapse in their vote share. The Conservatives might have won a narrow
victory only to be cast into opposition by a Labour-Lib Dem (or Labour-SNP) alliance, for
example, in spite of Labour having come second in both England and Scotland. Moreover,
whilst it would have been constitutionally acceptable for Nick Clegg to remain Deputy PM, it
might not have been politically acceptable, given the rejection of his leadership that would
have been implicit in a poor electoral performance for his Party. Thus ‘legitimacy’ can be
rather a fluid concept; indeed, one might ask how ‘legitimate’ it was for David Cameron to
ask the public to put his Party in government for a further five years when he himself does
not intend to see out the full term.
On the other hand, a minority government might not have been acceptable either. There is
no real tradition of minority government in the UK, and voters were unlikely to have been
satisfied with a government that could not command the support of the Commons and
therefore would be unable to get much done. Moreover, because of the Fixed Term
Parliament Act, even if a government lost votes on the Budget and Queen’s Speech, it could
9
Neil McNaughton, Edexcel Government and Politics for AS (4th Ed., 2012, Hodder Education), p.4
James Landale, ‘Election 2015: The politics of legitimacy’. 20 April 2015 (BBC Online)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32382328
10
7

still fight on if it won (or did not face) a vote of no confidence (i.e. other parties might not
want to bring about another election straight away, and there is an element of ‘Turkeys
voting for Christmas’ about MPs taking this drastic action, given how unpopular it would
likely be with the public). This would again have affected its legitimacy.
The SNP will play a big role in the next parliament; as it happens they will not be in a
coalition – it might have been difficult for the majority of UK voters to accept this, given how
geographically narrow their base of support is, and also the quite radical nature of SNP
policies (not to mention the Independence agenda, which Scottish voters have already
rejected but which was nevertheless an issue leading up to polling day). On the other hand,
their present position of being side-lined without any power will be difficult for the Party to
accept given they did win a landslide in Scotland; in spite of nationalist domination, Scotland
is again to be governed by a Conservative administration very few people voted for. Might
this strengthen calls for another Independence referendum in the long-term?
As Lansdale wrote in the original article:
‘The optimists say, fear not, look how quickly the people of Britain adapted to coalition
government in 2010. The warnings of disaster proved unfounded. The pessimists fear a
further dislocation between parliament and the people if things are done in their name they
do not understand and believe to be unfair.’
As it happens, nothing much has changed, but this does remind us that less conventional outcomes
are possible and legitimacy is not a fixed concept, particularly without a codified constitution. Much
is still to be determined.
A note on coalitions:
Two days before the election, the Independent gave its backing top another Conservative-Lib Dem
coalition: “For all its faults, another Lib-Con Coalition would both prolong recovery and give our
kingdom a better chance of continued existence".11 Interestingly, the paper also claimed to “prize
strong, effective government”, suggesting it does not see this as incompatible with coalition
government. The Financial Times took a similar view, calling for tactical voting to produce another
Lib-Con coalition. So, not everyone thinks they’re such a bad idea. As it happens, though, we won’t
be encountering them for at least another five years.
11
Election 2015: Independent backs Conservative-Lib Dem coalition. 05 May 2015 (BBC)
8
Turnout
Turnout at this general election was 66.1%, with 46.4m people voting. This is a slight increase from
65.1% in 2010 and it is worth noting that this is the third election in a row where the vote share has
increased, which makes it the highest turnout in nearly 20 years. If we take the 2001 anomaly out of
the equation, when a second Labour landslide was widely anticipated and when many voters
(including some ‘Old Labour’ devotees who were less than enthused by Blair’s modernising ways)
probably stayed at home, the average figure for the 1997, 2005, 2010 and 2015 elections is just
under 66%. So, hardly a disaster.
Turnout tends to be low when the margin of victory of a General Election is high, suggesting that
people are more inclined to vote if the result is uncertain. Turnout at the 2001 election was 59.4%,
this was the first time that turnout had fallen below 70% since 1918. Turnout in 1918 was depressed
in the wake of WW1, whereas the 2001 election followed the Labour landslide victory of 1997.
Turnout at subsequent elections has recovered from this low, but has remained under 70%.12
2015 Turnout was particularly high in Scotland at 71.1%. This follows on from an extraordinarily high
referendum turnout of 84.5% in 2014 and is undoubtedly related to the revolutionary impact of the
SNP. In the General Election, turnout rose above 80% in Dunbartonshire East (a 25.8% swing to the
SNP was a record at the time, although the swing ‘record’ was broken a further nine times over the
course of the morning, ending up with a 39% swing in Glenrothes) and Renfrewshire East (where
Scottish Labour leader Jim Murphy lost to the SNP’s Kirsten Oswald). This suggests high levels of
political engagement have been sustained in Scotland, and we can also assume the growing youth
vote has been a part of this picture.
The data below shows latest national election turnout in 18 Western European countries (2011-15),
suggesting the UK still struggles in comparison with other democratic nations:
Luxembourg
Belgium
Denmark
Sweden
Iceland
Liechtenstein
Norway
Italy
Austria
Netherlands
Germany
Ireland
Spain
Finland
United Kingdom
Portugal
France
Switzerland
91.15%
89.37%
87.74%
85.81%
81.44%
79.80%
78.23%
75.19%
74.91%
74.56%
71.53%
70.05%
68.94%
66.85%
66.12%
58.03%
55.40%
49.10%
Source: Data collected from Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (IDEA)13
12
13
Elections: Turnout. Standard Note: SN/SG/1467. House of Commons Library. Last updated: 3 July 2013.
http://www.idea.int/vt/field.cfm?field=221&region=50
9
Young voters
Armando Iannucci wrote of the involvement of young voters in the Scottish Referendum:
‘(T)he extension of the vote to 16- and 17-year-olds was a triumph. As someone who went
through the nerve-shredding tradition of Scottish inter-school debates, I wasn't surprised to
see a lot of confident speakers and campaigners aged 16 and 17, but what was thrilling was
how energised that whole generation had become, how they asked all the most penetrating
questions, how forensic was their analysis of what politicians had to say and how they
challenged parents, brothers and sisters to do the same. Their discussions were more
gripping than anything a fan of party representatives on stools could ever muster.’ 14
However, this does not appear to have translated into higher youth turnout across the UK. According
to the British Election Study (BES), nearly 60 per cent of young people, aged 18-24, turned out to
vote in the 2015 General Election. YouGov had, however, previously suggested that nearly 69% of
under-25s were "absolutely certain" to vote on 7 May.
There is still a need to engage this demographic and the picture has been worrying for some time:
18-24
All
1970
64.9
72.0
1979
62.5
72.8
1983
63.9
72.7
1987
66.6
75.3
1992
67.3
77.7
1997
54.1
71.4
2001
40.4
59.4
2005
38.2
61.3
2010
51.8
65.0
Source: Data taken from House of Commons Library Research Paper 03/59
We see it mapped out rather starkly here in the British Election Study’s predictions for 2015, albeit
slightly inflated but still accurate in terms of the overall trend:
Source:
British
Election
Study
14
Armando Iannucci, ‘Scottish referendum: people are energised – and this new way of doing politics is not
going to change’ Guardian Online. Sunday 21 September 2014 00.05 BST
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/21/scottish-referendum-massive-voter-turnoutmeans-politics-changed-for-ever
10
Still, in 2010 only an estimated 44% of the under 25s voted compared to 65% overall, so we have
seen some improvement here; it was, after all, a ‘close run and unpredictable election’ and Russell
Brand’s recent endorsement of voting likely created a ‘bounce’ in turnout amongst this group.15
Election 2015: Voting turn out 'time-bomb' warning16 (BBC Online)
The next generation of voters may ignore formal politics, the Electoral Reform Society (ERS) has said.
Its report, published three days from the general election, said Wales faces a "turn-out time-bomb",
although young voters' belief in democracy is high. ERS Cymru calls for a lower voting age, "radical
overhaul" of politics teaching in schools and a "louder voice" for young people in Welsh public life.
Around 52% of under-24s voted in 2010, compared to 65% of all eligible. This was an improvement
on the record low of 38% in 2005, but ERS Cymru warns the long-term trend is one of decline. In
1964 young voters turned out in roughly the same proportion as voters of all ages - 77% - but since
1997 they have been notably less likely to vote than older people.
Director Steve Brooks called on the new Parliament to "immediately devolve power over the voting
age to Wales, so AMs can get on and make changes in time for next year's assembly elections. The
Welsh government needs to radically overhaul how politics is taught in schools," he said. Mr Brooks
also called on the Welsh government to set up an independent national youth assembly for Wales
and reverse its decision to withdraw funding from Funky Dragon.
Social networking: did it influence turnout?
As the Independent on Sunday put it a few days after the election, foremost amongst the things we
learned is: ‘You can’t trust social media. If you did, Labour would have won a landslide victory.’ 17
See this BBC article, posted on the day itself, 07 May 2015, about the significance of social
networking on election night:
Social media: Frivolous bragging or influencing turnout?
Facebook and Twitter took an active approach in encouraging people to vote. As of 22:00 BST, nearly
3m people had clicked a special "I'm a voter" button on Facebook. But does this represent any more
than just frivolous bragging about fulfilling civic duties?
Some think the button may have an actual impact on turnout - a wide-ranging study of the use of
the button in the 2010 elections in the US showed that it had a small but discernible impact on the
numbers of people voting. The effect of that could be crucial in such a close election.
The "I voted" button was controversial in the US study, because some people were shown it in
different ways and others weren't shown it at all - but no one was asked for their consent to be part
of the study. That doesn't apply this time: all UK Facebook users were shown the button in the same
way during Thursday's poll, above a gallery of their Facebook friends who also said they voted.
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-32615979
15
The data comes from the long-running British Election Study, which has produced survey-based data for
General Elections since 1964 and which has consistently found the sharpest decline and slowest recovery in
turnout to be amongst voters aged 18-24. http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/
16
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-wales-32550967
17
Election 2015 At A Glance (IoS 10 MAY 2015)
11
Party Membership
Reasons to be pessimistic
In an article in 2011, BBC Political Reporter Brian Wheeler stated “Political party membership
appears to be in terminal decline in the UK”; parties had once been “a source of cultural identity and
pride for millions of British people” but with under 1% of the population now members (it was 3.8%
in 1983), low compared to other European nations, membership was clearly becoming a “minority
pursuit”. For good measure, Wheeler added the RSPB (Royal Society for the Protection of Birds) had
more members than all of Britain’s political parties combined, and several hundred thousand more
at that.
Wheeler identified several reasons for this growing cynicism and disillusionment. Sue to recent
socio-economic and demographic changes, we live in a more individualistic age where the old class
connections are less profound, where political parties play less of a role in the everyday life of
communities, and where Britons have many more options for how to spend their free time.
Moreover, politics has become too ‘managerial’ a dull, polished, corporate activity played out
between Westminster insiders and the media, of and for itself, with too little of the ideological
content that used to motivate supporters. Politicians neither look nor sound like ‘the people’ and it
is not entirely clear what the parties stand for, or how they differ from each other, hence the sense
of disconnect. Those who are drawn to activism will find a more attractive outlet in single-issue and
pressure group politics, and are likely to see parties and their elites as part of the problem.
1951 Conservative 2.9m - Labour 876,000
1971 Conservative 1.3m - Labour 700,000
1991 Conservative 1m to 0.5m - Labour 261,000 - Lib Dem 91,000
2001 Conservative 311,000 - Labour 272,000 - Lib Dem 73,000
2011 Conservative 177,000 - Labour 190,000 - Lib Dem - 66,000
(Source: Estimates based on party reports and House of Commons Library)18
18
Membership of UK political parties - Commons Library Standard Note
Published 30 January 2015 | Standard notes SN05125. Amended 09 February 2015 (Richard Keen)
12
Post-election surge: a new trend?
Within a week of the General Election, around 12,000 people have joined the Liberal Democrats, the
fastest growth in its history despite the party losing 48 of its 56 MPs in the 07 May vote. As of
14.05.15, LD membership stood at 55,649, still behind the Greens & SNP as well as the ‘Big Two’, but
with some momentum. Of these members, over half are under 35, 82% have never been a member
of a party and 72% have no prior involvement in political campaign work.
The Labour Party also reported an increase of almost 30,000 members over the same one-week
period, again seeming to fly in the face of its poor election performance; as of 11.05.15, LP
membership stands at 221,247, a considerable increase from the figure of 190,000 provided by the
House of Commons Library in January 2015. Labour continues to have the largest party membership.
The increase in Lib Dem membership resembles what was dubbed the ‘Green Surge’, when
thousands of people joined the Green party after it was excluded from broadcasters’ initial
proposals for a TV debate in January this year. Leader Natalie Bennett said at one point that a new
member was joining the party every 10 seconds. The Green Party currently has 66,557 members,
which has risen by around 4,000 since polling day. One-third of the Green party’s membership claims
to have voted for the Liberal Democrats in the 2010 election.
The SNP experienced the same phenomenon after the pro-independence campaign lost in last
September’s referendum, with its membership surging by nearly 5,000 in the days following the
vote. Estimates now put SNP membership at over 100,000.
The rise of these parties might have short-term causes but it does appear to be bucking a longerterm trend. None of the smaller parties can rival Labour or the Conservatives, of course, but we have
seen a change in the political landscape here and these recent developments have made it less likely
that the UK will descend into a US-style two-party-system, which is one of the fears with FPTP.
Further details:





Green Party membership rose by 28% in 2014; now 44,713
Greens average 6% in the polls to Lib Dems’ 9%, but GP is on an upward trajectory; GP has
benefitted from splits on the Left and is popular with younger voters
UKIP membership also around 44,000; 13% in the polls
UKIP is the second most ‘liked’ party on Facebook (458,000) – It vastly exceeds Labour
(300,000) and is only narrowly behind the Conservatives (462,000)
Both Greens and UKIP now have more members than Lib Dems
A warning
Professor Paul Whitely: “I am not sure that these new members remain very long or are likely to be
active. If you think of them as strong supporters of a party who are prepared to give a donation by
signing up to the Liberal Democrats, Greens, Ukip or whatever, that is probably the best way of
thinking about them.”19
We see parallels with arguments not to read too much into the membership figures of Pressure
Groups, as numbers alone do not give us an indication of how active and involved these members
are likely to be, especially over the long-term.
19
In: The Guardian Online http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/13/lib-dem-membership-figuresup-10000-since-general-election
13
How socially representative is Parliament?
The new parliament is the UK’s most diverse on record, although it is still not representative in
proportion to the wider UK population. This has attracted a fair degree of media attention since the
election and is a relevant factor for you to consider when assessing how democratic the UK is, how
effectively representative democracy works and what could be done to improve the system.
Douglas Carswell, UKIP’s only MP, said of the system in the weeks before the election: “How does
our Westminster system actually work? It's a fix. A cartel. Too many MPs become MPs by working in
the offices of MPs. We want to open things up.”
In his victory speech he spoke of the need for UKIP to represent people from all backgrounds.
Cameron, having publically committed himself to increasing the share of women in Cabinet, has
spoken of ‘One nation’ conservatism, and Labour critics have linked failure to what some perceive as
the party’s narrow appeal and apparent unattractiveness to the ‘aspirational’ classes.20 So, is
Parliament any more diverse now, or can we still talk of a ‘Westminster Village’?
Gender
There is now a record number of female MPs in Parliament (191 women in total, 29% of the House),
the overall figure having risen by a third from 2010 (22%). This increase applied to Labour as well as
the Conservatives in spite of the former seeing a decline in overall MP numbers, but the biggest rise
came from the SNP, where the number of female MPs rose from 1 to 20. Among these was Mhairi
Black who, at 20, is the youngest ever MP in the democratic era (and one of the youngest ever21).
Cathy Newman bemoans the lack of any Liberal MPs22 but warns against self-congratulation
elsewhere; she writes ‘the Tory women were lucky - spared by Labour's abject failure to make a
comeback in England’, citing UCL/Birkbeck data showing the Tories to have fielded only 26%,
compared to a Lib Demo figure of 27%, of female candidates for election. The mainstream UK parties
again lagged behind the SNP, for whom 36% of their candidates were female – second only to the
Greens, who were unable to make much of an electoral impact either way. The SNP used all-women
shortlists in some seats.
Female leaders
Nicola Sturgeon has undoubtedly been the political star of 2015. Dominating the TV debates and
winning a huge victory in Scotland, as well as shaping much of the pre-election debate between the
big UK parties, she will be a force in British politics for years to come and could have a huge impact
on the future of the county. Also given more exposure as leaders of smaller parties were Leanne
Wood of Plaid Cymru and Natalie Bennett of the Green Party. Prominent in pre-election debates was
UKIP’s Suzanne Evans, Deputy Chair and Policy Chief (although she’s set to be replaced by Mark
Reckless as Farage re-asserts his authority), and of course Yvette Cooper (46) and Liz Kendall (43) are
among the frontrunners in the Labour leadership contest. If Cooper wins, four of the seven
20
Although former Deputy PM John Prescott isn’t too sure who they are anyway:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3096132/Labour-grandee-Lord-Prescott-savages-leadershipcontenders-meaningless-campaigns-succeed-Miliband.html)
21
A bit of light relief for those of you who follow footnotes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3jIE3b-bhY
22
The Lib Dems now have no female MPs, although there is little sense in analysing this from a gender point of
view given the scale of the party’s defeat, other than to say the parliamentary party has never led from the
front in this area. Still, it is obviously bad news that there is a mainstream party in the Commons without any
female representation at all.
14
mainstream British political leaders will be female. This could change further after Cameron stands
down; Old Etonian Boris Johnson is fancied by some but he will have limited Cabinet experience and
even now is not yet a minister, and as Jane Merrick writes, the party might look elsewhere: ‘Justine
Greening made a big John Majoresque pitch in her acceptance speech in Putney about “levelled-up
Britain” and highlighting her comprehensive-school, northern background. While we’ve all been
looking at Theresa May as the state-educated alternative to Boris Johnson as the next Tory leader,
have we failed to notice that Greening could be a contender in 2020?’23
In relation to the forthcoming Labour leadership contest, Cathy Newman writes ‘although it’s a
quarter of a century since the last woman left Downing Street, Labour has never managed to elect a
female leader - let alone one who’s capable of becoming prime minister. It’s an omission which
surely shames such a self-proclaimed progressive party.’24 We should note, though, that in overall
terms Labour is the most gender-neutral party, as 42.7 of its MPs (99/232) being female; it’s the only
party which comes within 10% of equality.
Analysing female representation: A note of caution
One in three is of course still an unequal and disproportionate gender split: ‘The fight for more
women must not stop until it reaches 50 per cent.’25 As Ehrenberg notes: ‘Looking at it on a map, the
country still looks particularly male-dominated. Although that's partly because Labour, with the most
female MPs, controls more urban constituencies, which are geographically smaller. Nevertheless,
parity's still a long way off.’26
The 50:50 Parliament campaign is a cross-party group petitioning for equal parliamentary
representation; founder Frances Scott argues more action is needed: ‘It is of course good that we’ve
got more women in parliament and I’m pleased, but men still outnumber women two to one, and
there were 102 constituencies where no women stood at all.’27
Moreover, crunching the data is all very well, but we shouldn’t make the mistake of thinking all
female MPs are the same. This is always the problem with any kind of identity-based approach to
political analysis. Famously, American Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, the only AfricanAmerican on the Court, is ideologically conservative; he has spoken out strongly against affirmative
action (positive discrimination), for example. That this comes as such a surprise to many
commentators, and that it attracts hostility, is a reflection of the expectation most people hold of
African-Americans as being more liberally inclined, given the historic support of this community for
the Democrat Party. So it is with gender; there is as much ideological division and diversity among
women as there is among the population as a whole.
23
Jane Merrick, Political Editor IoS 10 May 2015
Cathy Newman, Presenter, Channel 4 News. 12:32PM BST 19 May 2015 ‘Yvette Cooper needs a bazooka to
blow Labour's shameful record on women leaders apart’ (Daily Telegraph Online)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-politics/11615088/Labour-leadership-Yvette-Cooper-cant-befirst-woman-leader-like-this.html
25
Jane Merrick, Political Editor IoS 10 May 2015
26
Billy Ehrenberg, ‘General Election 2015 mapped: How many MPs are women and which party has the most
female MPs?’ 11 May 2015 3:12pm http://www.cityam.com/215494/general-election-2015-mapped-howmany-mps-are-women-and-which-party-has-most-female-mps
27
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/naz-shah-interview-labours-new-mp-forbradford-west-on-beating-rival-george-galloway--and-considering-legal-action-against-him-10238901.html
24
15
The UK globally
Judith Squires has shown that the UK does not do well internationally in terms of gender
representation. It will have improved slightly after the election but UN data from as recently as 2014
showed the UK to be lagging behind countries such as Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Belarus, as well
as Germany, France and Spain, on this criteria (although we did better than the US).28 The UK
currently ranks 52nd globally. Squires continues: ‘Following the general election Nan Sloane, director
at the Centre for Women and Democracy, argued that unless clear and effective steps were taken to
rectify the underrepresentation of women it would take decades – if not centuries – to achieve
parity. Similarly, in 2007 the Equalities Review suggested that at the current rate of change the
underrepresentation of ethnic minorities would not be corrected until 2080, while the Fawcett
Society calculated that it would be more than three centuries before Parliament represents Britain’s
population of women from ethnic minorities.’ 29
See charts and data overleaf, on women elected in UK general elections since 1945.
28
29
Judith Squires, ‘Gender and Minority Representation in Parliament’. Political Insight, December 2010.
Judith Squires, ‘Gender and Minority Representation in Parliament’. Political Insight, December 2010.
16
en…
17
Source: http://www.ukpolitical.info/FemaleMPs.htm
The new Cabinet
Cameron’s July 2014 reshuffle was praised for adding more women in the Cabinet, although it only
increased the number of women to 23 per cent.30 Following the 2015 election this has increased to
36%, as 9 of the 25 senior ministers are women. Most of the ‘top jobs’ still seem to go to men, but
there are some big-hitters here:
Theresa May – Home Secretary
Nicky Morgan – Education Secretary
Amber Rudd – Secretary of State for Energy & Climate Change
Liz Truss – Environment, Health & Rural Affairs Secretary
Justine Greening – International Development Secretary
Theresa Villiers – Northern Ireland Secretary
Anna Soubry - Minister for Small Business
Priti Patel – Employment Minister
Baroness Stowell - Leader of the House of Lords
30
Does it matter? See opinion piece from Rowena Ironside: http://realbusiness.co.uk/article/27368-womenand-the-cabinet-reshuffle-does-diversity-matter Also note how certain newspapers will continue to refer to
recently-serving and/or current women MPs as ‘Blair’s Babes’, ‘Cameron’s Cuties’, ‘Dave’s Divas’ and so on.
Also see these articles about the everyday experiences of women MPs in Parliament, first from 2005:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4216784.stm, and also from earlier this year:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11597739/From-calm-down-dear-to-ladieschampion-how-David-Cameron-has-solved-his-woman-problem-overnight.html. Disillusionment at maledominated Commons: http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2014/jun/22/women-speak-out-parliamentsexist-masculine-mumsnet.
18
Source: Telegraph Online31
Rosa Prince suggests that the presence of more women in the Chamber might encourage male MPs
to moderate their boorish behaviour. While that perhaps seems unlikely, she makes another, better
point in relation to changes to PMQs: ‘In the past, for the benefit of the TV cameras, the whips were
careful to ensure that Mr Cameron was surrounded by a “donut” of women Conservative MPs. By
the time he finishes his reshuffle, we are told, a third of his government will be female, meaning
such careful choreography will no longer be necessary.’
Included among the seven women in Cameron’s Cabinet (Prince: ‘no shrinking violets, they bring flair
and intelligence to their posts’) are formidable senior figures like Home Secretary Theresa May,
proud feminist and Education Secretary Nicki Morgan. Prince also highlights women to watch in the
‘lower ranks’, with Tracey Crouch, Karen Bradley and Charlotte Leslie likely to make an impact and
31
Rosa Prince, ‘From ‘calm down, dear’ to ladies’ champion - how David Cameron has solved his ‘woman
problem’ overnight’. 8:00PM BST 11 May 2015. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/davidcameron/11597739/From-calm-down-dear-to-ladies-champion-how-David-Cameron-has-solved-his-womanproblem-overnight.html
19
tipped for promotion. Prince: ‘All are young, ambitious and media friendly; stars of the future. One
of them may well be our next female prime minister.’
Still, there are further problems from a ‘representation’ point of view. New Energy and Climate
Change Secretary Amber Rudd, although seemingly authentic and able to connect to voters, has an
‘aristocratic pedigree’ to rival that of George Osborne; nor was Education Secretary Nicki Morgan a
radical appointment in 2014 - former Head Girl of an independent school, Oxbridge corporate lawyer
from Surrey… Priti Patel, the new Employment Minister, is the only female ethnic minority member
of Cabinet. Perhaps more ‘down with the voters’ is Anna Soubry, the new Minister for Small
Business and daughter of a garage-owner, described by Prince as outspoken and worldly.
In ‘Gender and Minority Representation in Parliament’, Judith Squires concludes:
‘It is widely accepted by our political leaders that we do need to do more to address
underrepresentation. All three main political parties express a commitment to the improved
representation of women and minorities, but have significantly different track records in
relation to actual diversity among their MPs, and support differing mechanisms to enhance
their representation in future. A brief review of the strategies adopted in relation to female
and BAME representation in the UK to date suggests that the selection rules adopted by
political parties are crucial. This is supported by comparative data, which show that the
adoption of gender quotas has facilitated significant increases in the representation of
women internationally. The extension of the Sex Discrimination (Election Candidates) Act
2002 to enable the use of all-women shortlists until 2030 should therefore make a
difference in relation to gender, if all parties choose to make use of the mechanisms it
allows. The positive action provisions within the Equality Act should also allow political
parties to reserve places on electoral shortlists for BAME candidates. These are positive
developments, which should allow parties to use their selection rules to further increase
female and minority representation. Comparative research also indicates that electoral
systems influence levels of female and minority representation, with proportional
representation systems and multi-member constituencies tending to generate more diverse
parliaments than those with plurality systems and single-member constituencies. At a time
when the Voting and Parliamentary Reform Bill is under consideration the likely impact of
any electoral reform on female and minority representation should also be reviewed.’ 32
Ethnicity
Writing before the election, Squires highlighted significant variation across the parties in relation to
BAME33 representation:
‘While the Lib Dems still have no BAME MPs, Labour have 16, up two, and the Conservatives
have 11, up nine, after David Cameron made highly publicised gestures to show the party
had changed, putting up 15 black and Asian candidates in safe or winnable seats. This
variation in the level of female and minority representation across the parties is a reflection
of the importance of party selection rules, and suggests that Theresa May (Secretary of State
for the Home Department and Minister for Women and Equalities) was correct to state that
32
33
Judith Squires, ‘Gender and Minority Representation in Parliament’. Political Insight, December 2010.
NB: BAME = Black, Asian and Minority Ethnicity
20
‘the first responsibility for ensuring diversity of representation rests with political parties’
(Parliamentary Questions, 17 June 2010).34
We now have 42 non-white MPs in Parliament, an increase on 27 in 2010, although for the first time
since 1997 there are no Sikh MPs. Alan Mak becomes the first MP of Chinese origin (Havant,
Conservatives).
There are only two ethnic minority ministers: Priti Patel – Employment Minister; Sajid Javid –
Business, Innovation & Skills Secretary.
Sexuality
Andrew Reynolds celebrates how little a candidate’s sexuality seems to matter to voters, citing a
record number of LGBT MPs in the House (now 32 MPs). Labour did not take many seats from the
Tories but of the 10 they did win, three were won by LGBT candidates. All four LGBT Liberal
Democrat MPs lost their seats (although they all polled well in the circumstances), and the SNP
provided seven new LGBT-identifying MPs. However, Reynolds does caution using this criteria alone
as an indicator of diversity as ‘only six are women and none are trans’ and, as in 2010, all are white.35
Moreover, this time around a massive 153/155 LGBT candidates were white.
Note: this map was produced before the final three
SNP MPs were declared.
Reynolds: ‘The 32 newly elected British MPs who
identify as lesbian, gay or bisexual have set a new
world record. They represent 4.9 per cent of the
House, not far off the proportion of Brits estimated
to be LGBT (between 5 and 7 per cent) The total far
exceeds the levels of representation in countries
where gay rights have been entrenched for
decades: for example, there are currently twelve
out MPs in the Swedish Riksdagen and ten in the
Dutch Tweede Kamer. Thirteen of the new House
of Commons members are Labour MPs, twelve are
Conservatives and six SNP MPs (although those
numbers are likely to rise as newly elected MPs feel
comfortable enough to come out to the world
beyond their immediate circle of family and
friends).’36
34
Judith Squires, ‘Gender and Minority Representation in Parliament’. Political Insight, December 2010.
Andrew Reynolds, ‘The UK broke its own record for LGBT representation last week’
The Staggers, the New Statesman’s rolling politics blog. 13 May, 2015 - 11:05
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/uk-broke-its-own-record-lgbt-representation-last-week
36
Andrew Reynolds, ‘The UK broke its own record for LGBT representation last week’
35
21
The UK now has more LGBT representatives than any other parliament in the world and has been
named Europe’s most progressive country for LGBT citizens by an international human rights
organisation study. It is far ahead of liberal countries such as Sweden (12 LGBT MPs) and the
Netherlands (10 LGBT MPs). At 5% of MPS the Commons, the LGBT community is close to being
proportionately represented (5-7% of the UK population is estimated to be LGBT).
Both the Conservatives and Labour have 12 LGB MPs each while the SNP has seven, ranging from
high profile Edinburgh QC Joanna Cherry to the UK's youngest ever MP, Mhairi Black, who is just 20years-old. The Tories put up more openly gay candidates than other party, with 39 men and three
women. Analysis shows the 50 competitive Tory LGB candidates did considerably better than their
straight colleagues, with 72 per cent having a larger vote share increase than the national trend, and
three times the Conservative average. Worries of a backlash over David Cameron's support for
marriage equality were laid to rest and voters proved sexual orientation was of little consequence.
The 155 LGBT candidates came from a spread of parties - 42 Tories, 39 Lib Dems, 36 Labour, 21
Greens, seven UK, seven SNP, three Plaid Cymru and one from the Alliance party of Northern
Ireland. While the other two parties have more LGB MPs overall, the SNP can proudly say at 12.5 per
cent they have the highest proportion of LGBT MPs anywhere in the world.
Source: Adapted from Daily Express Online37
Educational and socio-economic background
32% of MPs in the new parliament are privately educated, compared with 35% of those elected in
2010. The national figure is 7%. Interestingly, almost half (48%) of the new intake of Conservative
MPs are privately educated, which reinforces stereotypes about the party base.38
Newman argues the SNP has helped make UK politics a little more representative; for example SNP
MP Lisa Cameron is a former NHS consultant and Mhairi Black is a student. Many SNP MPs are
relatively new to the nationalist cause – i.e. they have not spent a career on the inside.
Disability
1 in 6 British people have a disability. If representation was proportionate we would expect to see
around 100 disabled MPs but as it is there are under 10.
Robert Halfon, Conservative vice-chairman, has been named in the new cabinet as Minister without
Portfolio and is the only disabled member of the government team.
Read more on BBC Online (2013): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-21464655 and New
Statesman Online: http://www.newstatesman.com/voices/2013/07/why-do-we-have-so-fewdisabled-mps.
The Staggers, the New Statesman’s rolling politics blog. 13 May, 2015 - 11:05
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/uk-broke-its-own-record-lgbt-representation-last-week
37
Alix Culbertson, ‘Britain has gayest parliament in the world’. UPDATED: 12:42, Thu, May 14, 2015
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/577185/UK-parliament-gay-politicians Note from MWG: I also think
this is an appalling article heading.
38
Election 2015 At A Glance (IoS 10 MAY 2015)
22
Election 2015: Further Implications and some ‘extra’ points for discussion
It seems that much current debate, both about the present and in relation to the challenges to
come, is on the subject of the British Constitution. However, we should remind ourselves that this is
not necessarily a priority area for voters, as the following table shows:
Very
important
Very/Fairly
important
NHS
74
93
UK economy
69
92
Immigration
60
83
Welfare, benefits and pensions
56
89
Jobs and pay
53
88
Education
45
85
Crime/law and order
42
84
Housing
41
81
Europe/EU
40
78
Environment/transport
27
73
The UK's place in the world
25
65
Constitutional reforms/changes to the
political system in the UK
22
57
Rural affairs
15
55
Source: BBC Online (UK Politics)39
Still, you should consider the election’s likely impact on major constitutional areas such as
devolution, human rights, parliamentary reform, the EU, and our increasing use of referendums.
39
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30980022
23
Pressure Groups: What will change? Who will rise to the top?
One argument you will be familiar with is that Pressure Groups are more likely to be successful (and
to gain ‘insider’ status) if their objectives correspond with the policy aims and ideological beliefs of
the party in government; this is particularly the case when there is a single party in power. It might
also be the case that other groups (especially ‘outsiders’, or ‘institutional’/’sectional’ groups) gain
prominence through leading campaigns against contentious government policies (and with a
majority of only 12 MPs, the Conservatives will have to take note). So, what can we say about the
next five years?




Clearly, the Electoral Reform Society and other groups campaigning for political reform will
be high-profile, as debates rage about the unfair nature of FPTP. There will be no appetite
for another referendum in the Conservative Party, though.
The markets responded very positively to the Tory victory. Most commentators would
expect Conservative government to be good for the business community and bad news for
the unions. Already we have heard plans to make it harder to strike:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jul/18/tories-plan-to-make-striking-moredifficult
Even Labour is getting edgy about its links with trade unions, as leadership contenders
compete to see who can be the most pro-‘aspiration’. Andy Burnham is the most likely
candidate to be endorsed by the unions (if indeed they decide to endorse anyone this time –
Labour will apply a new ‘one member, one vote’ system) but he will not want to deal with
the baggage Ed Miliband carried following his own selection in 2010.
Civil Liberties groups will challenge any attempt to scrap the Human Rights Act:
https://www.liberty-human-rights.org.uk/ (‘Liberty’)
And what about animal rights? See the BBC blog below from Hannah Henderson:
Less than a week after Conservative Party won a majority in the UK general election, animal rights
activists - with prominent comedians and entertainers as their allies - are organising online to fight
an effort to legalise hunting with dogs.
Fox hunting was not really an issue during the general election campaign. It barely registered on lists
of voter concerns, and didn't come up in debates. But in their manifesto, the Conservatives pledged
a free vote for MPs on repealing the decade-old law that banned hunting with dogs, and the evening
after the election the Conservative Health Minister Jeremy Hunt confirmed to the BBC's Newsnight
that the vote would go ahead.
That galvanised hunting opponents online, who among other things started tweeting pictures of
cute and cuddly foxes. Since the election results came through more than 58,000 tweets in the UK
have mentioned the term "fox hunting" - compared to just 4,000 in the week before the election.
Influential animal rights charities such as the RSPCA, the International Fund for Animal Welfare and
the League against Cruel Sports have traditionally led the anti-hunting charge in the UK, but on social
media it's British comedians and celebrities who seem to be making the most impact.
"The most powerful man in Britain wants the freedom to hunt this animal on horseback and watch
dogs rip it to pieces" tweeted comedian and vocal animal rights campaigner Ricky Gervais alongside
a video of a playful fox. The Office star has more than 8 million Twitter followers, and since Thursday
his feed has been dotted with pictures of fox cubs. His messages were retweeted by other celebrity
conservationists such as Queen guitarist Brian May and documentary maker Bill Oddie.
24
Gervais has also re-tweeted links to a petition on change.org which has attracted more than 240,000
signatures - more than other post-election UK political petitions supporting, for example, a
referendum on the Conservative plan to repeal the Human Rights Act and another calling for reform
of the voting system.
Another famous comedian, Jack Whitehall, has also been driving the trend. "Fox hunting should only
be considered a 'sport' if they do it both ways round. I.e. A pack of foxes get to chase a posh guy
with a trumpet" he tweeted.
Opponents of the last government's controversial badger cull to prevent the spread of tuberculosis
amongst cattle have also helped drive Gervais's message onto Facebook. Anti-badger cull
communities on the platform have started sharing celebrity quotes.
But some have gone much further, into the realms of trolling. They have posted updates which boast
of their targeting of fox hunting supporters individually, as well as people involved in last year's
badger cull. "A source tells us this family are involved in badger killing," reads one post which
encouraged activists to post negative reviews of the family's business.
However not everyone on social media is convinced of the apparent urgency to pressure MPs on the
issue. On ‘Reddit’, many were quick to point out that the Conservative Party were simply following
through on a campaign promise in a democratic process. Others highlighted websites which listed a
number of Conservative MPs who don't support removing the ban - which will make a difference
given that MPs will be allowed to vote with their conscience on the issue, rather than sticking to a
party line.
A Conservative Party spokesperson told BBC Trending that the party was still committed to its
manifesto promise. The pro-hunting Countryside Alliance is not yet campaigning on the issue, saying
that until the government had given a firm commitment in the Queen's Speech later this month, its
members are focusing on other campaigns.
"The recent general election has shown the dangers of mistaking social media sentiment for a true
representation of public opinion" an Alliance spokeswoman said. "It is very easy to favourite a
celebrity tweet but I wonder if 400,000 of these keyboard warriors would rally themselves to march,
as the Countryside Alliance did in support of hunting in 2002. You can be sure that once a concrete
piece of legislation has been brought forward hunting supporters will be ready and willing to act."
Whilst civil liberties, animal rights and trade union organisations aren’t likely to be high on the
government’s agenda of groups it would like to work with, in the era of social networking they
certainly have the potential to be active in their opposition, and this might have the same kind of
impact (in terms of how successful they are) from the ‘outside’ as if they had been working on the
‘inside’ with a more sympathetic government. We are warned not to link social media trends around
celebrity endorsements to wider public opinion, but this medium has the potential to generate
considerable momentum and also to aid in the organisation and coordination of protest activities, so
governments will have to respond.
25
Memorable Quotations



UKIP leader Nigel Farage called for "real, genuine, radical reform" of the voting system
BBC Scotland correspondent James Cook: "Is this the end of the union? That is the question
many people will be asking after the party which has fought for Scottish independence for
80 years swept to victory. The answer from the jubilant Scottish National Party leader Nicola
Sturgeon is a firm "no". She insists that her MPs will speak for all of Scotland, not just for the
45% who voted for the country to leave the United Kingdom last September. 'This changes
nothing,'
Norman Smith, assistant political editor: "This has been an election which may have more
profound consequences than almost any in living memory. "We now face a generational
decision about our future in Europe, with an EU referendum in two years’ time almost
certain. There will also be serious questions about the future of the Union, following an SNP
landslide that has turned Scotland into a virtual one-party state. David Cameron's victory
also represents a colossal achievement."
Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32633008
Video links
Key election stats: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11589521/Animationkey-statistics-from-election-results-night.html
5 challenges for the Government:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11603052/Five-key-hurdles-facing-amajority-Conservative-government.html
The Parties
Where does Labour go from here?
Labour still has some core areas of support. It won 45/73 seats in London, 25/40 in Wales, and
remained dominant across much of North East and North West England. But, it lost Scotland, its
ideological heartland, and it failed to make the gains it needed across the rest of the country, with
the Tories especially dominant in ‘Middle England’, successfully courted by Tony Blair in 1997 &
2001. What now for Labour? The temptation is for the party to retreat back to the centre ground, as
Blairites like Mandelson and David Miliband began urging only days after the results were
announced. However, we shouldn’t underestimate how far New Labour had damaged the Labour
brand by 2010, and is moving to the centre the party would also alienate much of its core support in
the North, and find it harder to claw back some of the SNP’s spectacular gains.
Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/jun/10/labour-party-leadership-policiesideas
The Liberal Democrats have an even bigger challenge, of course:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/11/labour-lib-dems-coalition and
http://www.libdemvoice.org/opinion-where-do-we-go-from-here-45839.html
And an opinion piece on the Tories: http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/04/22/mr-cameron-the-toriescompassionate-conservatism-compelled-to-justify-neoliberal-politics-at-ge2015/
Cameron’s message to his Cabinet: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32700111
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