Feasibility Study:
Demographics &
Retail Potential
Bartlett Site: Ekurhuleni
January 2007
Note: This project should be regarded as confidential as it contains
Data, Information and Intellectual Property of Fernridge Consulting and
Retail Network services - Copyright (Limited Distribution)
Copyright 2007: Fernridge Consulting.
Introduction
This report aims at assessing the feasibility of a proposed site for a new
Convenience centre located within the Bartlett, Ekurhuleni area. The proposed site
is situated on the corner of Ridge & Elizabeth Roads.
A demarcated catchment area was digitized in order to extract the 2007 Fernridge
Household counts and existing retailers. The site was assessed by physical
inspection as well as aerial photography. By using the Census 2001 data we were
able to initiate a demographic comparison between the proposed catchment area
and the surrounding precinct. Future developments were also taken into
consideration for future growth figures. The final points of the report focus on our
retail potential model which has been followed by an executive summary.
Copyright 2007: Fernridge Consulting
Copyright 2006: Fernridge Consulting.
Overview/ Landuse
DENEL
Aviation
To Kempton Park
OR Tambo International Airport
The Site
To Johannesburg
To Benoni
East Rand Mall
Copyright 2007: Fernridge Consulting
Copyright 2006: Fernridge Consulting.
Benoni Lake
Golf Club
Catchment Area
DENEL
Aviation
To Kempton Park
OR Tambo International Airport
The Site
A primary catchment area was
delineated in order to assess the
demographic profile and potential in
the immediate vicinity of the site.
To Johannesburg
To Benoni
East Rand Mall
Copyright 2007: Fernridge Consulting
Copyright 2006: Fernridge Consulting.
Benoni Lake
Golf Club
Current Retail Potential Estimate (RPE)
2007 Household Count
Expenditure Model
Income
Breakdown
A++
A+
A
B
C
D
DL
4
240
777
1518
1211
654
-
Monthly Expenditure
No of Households
A ++ Inc
A+ Inc
A Inc
B Inc
R 8,500
4
R 34,000
R 7,000
240
R 1,680,000
R 6,500
777
R 5,050,500
R 4,000
1,518
R 6,072,000
C Inc
D Inc
D L Inc
R 2,400
1,211
R 2,906,400
R 800
654
R 523,200
R 500
-
95%
95
incl 5% inflow
R0
100% Potential
Total
4,404
Hse
Households
4,404
R 16,266,100
PnP
Woolworths Food Potential:
- @ benchmark R60,000/m² trading density
- @ benchmark 15% market share
- Monthly turnover of ± R2.6m
- Warranted floor space of 514m² selling.
Pick ‘n Pay Potential:
- @ benchmark R30,000/m² trading density
- @ low benchmark 25% market share
- Monthly turnover of ± R4.3m
- Warranted floor space of 1712m² selling.
Copyright 2007: Fernridge Consulting
Copyright 2006: Fernridge Consulting.
Market Share
15%
20%
25%
30%
Turnover
R 2,568,332
R 3,424,442
R 4,280,553
R 5,136,663
R 17,122,211
WW
R 30,000
1027
1370
1712
2055
Anticipated market share scenario’s
R 60,000
Anticipated trading
density
(Rand / m² / Year)
514
685
856
1027 m²
Executive Summary
• The proposed site is very well situated in a somewhat confined area. Barriers like the
Airport to the west and the N12 highway to the south are enhancing the catchment to a
captured market.
• C/o Elizabeth Rd and Ridge Rd is very well located in the catchment. This is a relatively
busy crossing. The quantity of the traffic will be moderate but it is expected that the
quality of passing traffic will be high. Due to the neighborhood character of the proposed
centre the latter might only be achieved if the convenience offer of the centre is
emphasized strongly.
• The proposed site will be a stand alone centre, thus synergy is limited, but on the other
hand, direct competition is also minimized.
• The value density modeling is an indication that the area is on par with the rest of the
catchment in terms of the monthly food expenditure.
• The catchment is characterized by a strong A – C income bracket. Rapid growth of
residential units have occurred in the area, and is a positive for the proposed shopping
centre development.
• We believe that a Woolworths Food and a Pick ‘n Pay will complement each other in the
centre. Taking in consideration that each one of these store’s benchmark trading
densities (Woolworths: R60,000/m² and Pick ‘n Pay: R30,000/m²) with a expected 15%
and 25% market share respectively, will warrant a 514m² store (selling) for Woolworths
and a 1712m² store (selling) for Pick ‘n Pay. The expected monthly turnover of The
Woolworths will be ± R2,6m and for Pick ‘n Pay a ± R4,2m monthly turnover.
• A Convenience Centre of 10,000m² GLA can be justified in the next ± 2 years given the
high growth in the area.
Copyright 2007: Fernridge Consulting
Copyright 2006: Fernridge Consulting.
Executive Summary
Suggested Tenant Mix:
In our opinion the centre should be created into a prominent and convenient node
that will attract people from the surrounding neighborhoods. The tenant mix should
be sufficient to attract the middle-to-upper income bracket.
Recommended tenant mix according to the following guidelines (for the 10,000m² GLA
Convenience centre):
•
Food
• National supermarket – main anchor Pick ‘n Pay (± 2,200m² GLA) and Woolworths
Food (± 700m² GLA).
•
Specialty Stores
• Secondary anchor – Clicks.
• Line shops such as salon, DVD, music, pharmacy etc.
•
Service component including Bank / ATMs and Post Office.
•
Restaurants & Take Aways (Wine & Dine)
• One or two well known Fast Foods like Wimpy, KFC and a Coffee Shop
Copyright 2006: Fernridge Consulting
Contact Details
Sybrand Strauss
(Director)
Fernridge Consulting PTY LTD
South Africa
Tel:
Fax:
Cell:
e-mail:
011 712 1720
011 339 1833
082 330 5168
sss@fernridge.ucs.co.za
Marinus van der Merwe
(Business Analyst)
Fernridge Consulting PTY LTD
South Africa
Tel:
Fax:
Cell:
e-mail:
Copyright 2007: Fernridge Consulting
011 712 1370
011 339 1833
084 240 1151
mvm@fernridge.ucs.co.za