ES/SDOE 678
Reconfigurable Agile Systems and Enterprises
File1.3
Fundamentals of Analysis, Synthesis, and Performance
Session 1: Course Overview and Introduction to Agile Systems
School of Systems and Enterprises
Stevens Institute of Technology, USA
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1:1
Introductions
File
Your background?
What do you do here?
Why do you want a Master of SE degree?
Expectations from this course?
Current passionate pursuits?
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1:2
Guest Speaker: Joe Justice
Team WikiSpeed
File10
12Nov2011• TEDx Rainier Seattle, Washington
Joe Justice and Team Wikispeed hand build a new deliverable
street-legal, 100+ MPG car every 3 months, with new subsystem
iterations every 7 days: 0-60 mph in 5 seconds, 149 mph top
speed, with a sexy you-want-it carbon fiber sports car body. All
done by a remote collaboration agile development process with
volunteers working nights and weekends from many countries
around the world.
They satisfy critical safety regulations, and develop innovative
technologies to solve automotive issues that exceed what is
available from the major manufacturers.
You don’t want the sports car body? They’ll make you one with a truck body, or a
family-car body, whatever, under $20k. You want a different engine? They can swap out
whatever is there for another one in the time it takes to change a tire.
Video and audio at: www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8jdx-lf2Dw
Transcript at: www.parshift.com/s/JusticeJoe-TEDx-WikiSpeed-10min-Transcript.pdf
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1:3
4. Technical Processes (for instance)
(Certified Systems Engineering Professional) 4.1 Business/Mission Analysis
4.2 Stakeholder Needs & Requirements
4.3 System Requirements Definition
4.4 Architectural Definition
4.5 Design Definition
4.6 Systems Analysis
4.7 Implementation
4.8 Integration
4.9 Verification
4.10 Transition
4.11 Validation
4.12 Operation
4.13 Maintenance
4.14 Disposal
Systems engineering is a discipline that
concentrates on the design and
application of the whole (system) as
distinct from the parts. It involves looking
at a problem in its entirety, taking into
account all the facets and all the variables
and relating the social to the technical
aspect. (Ramo)
Systems engineering is an iterative
process of top-down synthesis,
development, and operation of a realworld system that satisfies, in a near
Version 4.0 Julyt 2015
optimal manner, the full range of
requirements for the system. (Eisner) 1:4
Members $20, or free e-download
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Supports the CSEP exam
Early Conceptual Work
Enables and Constrains
System Possibilities
"…the
development of a
basic idea and the
first embodiment
of the idea; these
two initial activities
are often called
invention and are
usually not part of
the engineering of
a system…"
Dennis Buede
Buede's book addresses
the procedures and
processes that turn
concept into reality. That
is the process part of
Systems Engineering
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1:5
Systems Engineering Life Cycle Models
INCOSE Systems Engineering Handbook, V 3.1, p 3.5
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1:6
ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288–2015
Systems and Software Engineering Processes
Agreement
Processes
Organizational
ProjectEnabling
Processes
Technical
Management
Processes
Technical
Processes
Acquisition
Life Cycle
Model
Management
Infrastructure
Management
Project Portfolio
Management
Human Resource
Management
Knowledge
Management
Quality
Management
Project
Planning
Project Assess
and Control
Decision
Management
Risk
Management
Configuration
Management
Information
Management
Measurement
Quality
Assurance
Stakeholder
Needs and
Requirements
Business/Mission Analysis
Special
Processes
Supply
Architectural
Definition
System
Requirements
Evaluation
Operation
Integration
Verification
Transition
Maintenance
Disposal
Validation
Implementation
Tailoring
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1:7
Asynchronous-Stage Agile SE-Life Cycle Framework
Systems and software engineering—Life cycle management—Part 1: Guide for life cycle management ISO/IEC TR 24748-1:2010(E)
Diagram of
Section 5.5.5 (p. 32):
Research
24748-1
Use processes to
“… to convey the idea that
observe and evaluate
text
one can jump from a stage to
environmental evolution,
and how that presents
one that does not immediately
threat or opportunity
follow it, or revert to a prior
stage or stages that do not
Retirement
Concept
Use
processes
to
remove
Use
processes
to define
immediately precede it.”
from use, dispose of & archive
& explore alternative
Engage
sub-systems-of-interest
solutions to meet a need
“Further, the text in the model
indicates that one applies, at
Agile
any stage, the appropriate life
Development
SE
Support
cycle processes, in whatever
Use processes to transform
Use processes to
concepts and system
LCM
sequence is appropriate to the
maintain, supply
requirements onto a
and
support
documented,
costed,
project, and repeatedly or
producible prototype
system-of-interest
Criteria
system-of-interest
recursively if appropriate.”
“While this may seem to be a
total lack of structure, indeed
Utilization
Production
it is not.”
Use processes to operate,
Use processes to
monitor and evolve
produce and improve
system-of-interest,
system-of-interest
“Rather, the structure has well
its services and
and evolve
infrastructure
infrastructure
defined parts that can be
juxtaposed as needed to get
the job done, flexibly but still
Seven asynchronously-invoked stages
in a disciplined manner, just
can be engaged repetitively and simultaneously
as a real structure would be
to achieve benefit when engagement criteria are met
created.”
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1:8
Purpose-Content-Objectives-Methods
Purpose – Agile responsiveness is wanted in systems at the forefront of
competition, enterprise, strategy, warfare, governance, innovation, engineering,
information, integration, and virtually anything designed today for purpose.
Content – Fundamental objectives, performance metrics, analysis frameworks,
and engineering principles for agile systems – from products and processes to
information and infrastructure to enterprises and systems-of-systems.
Objectives –
1) to develop a working knowledge of tools and methods for
requirements development and design synthesis of agile systems.
2) to develop domain independent patterns of agile systems that provide a
foundation for intuitive knowledge.
Methodology – Real agile systems are analyzed in case studies for their change
proficiency and response ability. Response capability frameworks are applied in
analysis and requirements development. Agility-enabling architectures and
principles are illuminated and then applied in synthesis exercises. Hands-on,
minds-on exercises prepare and guide the application of knowledge.
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1:9
Setting Expectations
All slides in course material will not be reviewed/presented/discussed,
…they are there to draw upon as appropriate, and for later reference.
Some slides not in the regular course material will be employed,
…for case studies as emerging interests indicate.
Some slides are very dense and not screen-viewable at a distance,
…they augment the text with reference material viewable on your PC.
This is not a Systems Engineering Process course,
…those are available under appropriately different course titles.
This course focuses on design and engineering concepts,
…that enable responsive/adaptable systems.
Various thinking-tools and thinking-disciplines are introduced,
…thinking fruitfully is a creative activity, not a procedure.
This is not a software-systems engineering course,
…nor focused on any other specific systems domain.
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1:10
Learning Opportunity
X-Ray Vision
Architecture Design Methodology
Conceptual Design Methodology
Domain Independent Principles
Learning requires three things:
1) Your belief that value exists in the learning
2) Your desire to learn
3) Some similarity to what you already know
Warnings:
1) Examples will generally not be your system types
2) Abstract thinking is the purpose
3) Enabling creative innovation is the aim
4) Comfortable comprehension does not occur in a few days
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1:11
Administrative
Each SDOE module contains the equivalent content of a traditionally taught,
thirteen week graduate course. The compressed lecture schedule employed by
SDOE enables students to complete the classroom portion of a course over five,
eight-hour days. While this format provides greater flexibility to the full-time
professional student, it also requires a particular focus on student attendance.
Therefore, the SDOE Attendance Policy is as follows:
Time Missed
Approver
Make-Up Work
< 4 Total Hours Course Instructor
Discretion of Instructor
4-8 Total Hours Associate Dean,
Assignment Consistent
Professional Programs with Missed Time
> 8 Total Hours Associate Dean,
Student May be Required
Professional Programs to Repeat Course
In any event, the student is accountable for all presented material and class
direction.
The graduate grading cycle:
A
AB+
4.0
3.7
3.3
B
3.0
B2.7
C+
2.3
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C
2.0
C1.7
F
0
1:12
Classroom Class
Breaks
Participation
Interruptions
Arrivals and Departures
Readings and Homework
Email and Web Surfing
Project Teaming
Peer Reviews
Phones Off
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1:13
Readings, References, Text
Text book: Response Ability – The Language, Structure, and Culture of
the Agile Enterprise, Wiley, 2001.
Relevant inter-session readings will be suggested during the course.
--some are necessary--
A reference list is provided for additional and continued self-study,
with Internet links where available.
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1:14
Downloadable Reference Materials
Additional materials and case studies
will be selected for use during class.
Many are available for download from:
www.parshift.com/678/support.htm
Tool templates for use during class should be on your CD.
They are also available for download from the URL referenced above.
These downloadable materials change over time.
…so what will be found there in the weeks following class
may be different than what is there during class.
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1:15
Best Before Unit Starts
SDOE
678
Web Links and Useful Reading for Indicated Session – Need Before Unit Starts
Unit
1
 Book:
Preface and Chap 1, pgs 3-30 (entire chapter)
Unit
2
 Book:
Chap 2, pgs 30-46 (up to ADAPTABLE CULTURE section)
Unit
3
 Book: Chap 3, pgs 67-87, and pgs 120-127
 Article: Team WikiSpeed Methods and Terms
Unit
4
 Book: Chap 3, pgs 87-108
 Paper: Agile Systems Engineering – Part 1
 Transcript: Managing Collaborative Multi-National Teams
Unit
5
 Book: Chap 5, pgs 133-160
 Term Project Guidance
Unit
6
 Book: Chap 8, pgs 214-234
 Paper: Agile Systems Engineering – Part 2
 Transcript: Hallway Open Q&A
Unit
7
 Book:
Unit
8
 Book: Chap 6 pgs 161-187
 Term Project Guidance
Unit
9
 Book: Chap 10, pgs 289-304
 Video: A Theory for the Agile Movement – Dave Snowden and the Cynefin Framework
Unit
10
 Book:
19Feb2015
Chap 7, pgs 188-213
Chap 10, 276-289
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1:16
Grading (For-Credit Students)
10% on class participation:
Peer review presentations: demonstration of relevant knowledge application.
Peer review contributions: collaborative engagement with projects of others.
Evidence of study: knowledgeable reference to the readings.
due nlt Monday 2 weeks after class
30% on operational model – Midterm deliverable
Two-page operational story: clear evidence of an agile system in operation
demonstrated with response objectives, requirements, values, response
enabling principles, and operational/integrity management.
Three-element response ability model: relevance and clarity of key concepts in
RS Analysis, RRS Principles, and Architectural Concept Pattern diagram.
Evidence of study: knowledgeable reference to the literature and readings.
60% on conceptual design report – Final deliverable due nlt Monday 6 weeks after class
Articulate a comprehensive new conceptual design, or analysis of an existing
design: response objectives, issues with metrics, and enabling principles;
strategic themes and activity web; closure matrix with descriptions; and
operational management and responsibilities – see 678 Project Guidance
document for the definitive word.
Evidence of study: knowledgeable reference to the literature and readings.
Reality: The first deliverable is key. Your true understanding of necessary fundamentals
is illuminated here. Feedback on this will put your train back on the rails.
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1:17
Course Project (For-Credit Students)
(always refer to www.parshift.com/AgileSysAndEnt/ProjGuide/678ProjGuideCurrent.pdf for current requirements)
5 Page Operational Model - Due as deliverable #1
Includes strategic objectives/themes
RSA - JIT Assembly Lines
Operational Story
Life with System X – Agility in Action
By Rick Dove, Paradigm Shift International, e-mail: dove@well.com, 505-586-1536, Senior Fellow, Agility Forum
Look through Fred Mauck's eyes for a moment. You
work in a GM stamping plant outside of Pittsburgh that
specializes in after-model-year body parts. Your
principal customer is GM's Service Parts Organization.
They might order '73 Chevelle hoods quantity 50, '84
Chevy Impala right fenders quantity 100, or '89 Cutlass
Supreme right front doors quantity 300. Your plant
stamps the sheet metal and then assembles a deliverable
product. Small lots, high variety, hard-to-make-a-buck
stuff.
Every new part that the plant takes on came from a
production process at an OEM plant that occupied some
thousands of square feet on the average; and the part
was made with specialized equipment optimized for
high volume runs and custom built for that part
geometry. To stamp a new deck lid (trunk door) part
you bring in a new die set - maybe six or seven dies,
each the size of a full grown automobile, but weighing
considerably more. And you bring in assembly
equipment from an OEM line that
might consist of a
hemmer to fold
edges of the
A newly built
metal, perhaps a
pre-hemmer for a
custom assembly
two-stage process,
line for each and
dedicated welding
apparatus for
every small-batch
joining the
run, every time, just
inner lid to the
outer lid, adhesive
in time.
equipment for
applying mastic at
part-specific locations, piercer units for part-specific
holes, and automated custom material handling
equipment for moving work between process
workstations.
You got a call a few weeks ago that said your plant
will start making the Celebrity deck lids, and
production has to start in 21 days. Not too bad sometimes you only have four days. For new business
like this your job is to get the necessary assembly
equipment from the OEM plant, reconfigure the
equipment and process to fit your plant, and have
people ready to produce quality parts in the next three
weeks. Others are responsible for the die sets and
stamping end of the production process.
In the last 12 months this happened 300 times. In the
last five years you've recycled some 800,000 square
feet of floor space in OEM plants for new model
production. At this point you have assembly equipment
and process for some 1000 different parts - but no extra
floor space ever came with any of it.
high-variety production - in a business that is
traditionally based on high volume economics - and
you've learned to do it without the usual capital
budget. Eight years at this has evolved some pretty
unique techniques - and a pretty unique culture as
well.
You don't do this by yourself - you're a team
leader that may use almost anyone from anywhere
in the plant. At this point almost everyone is
qualified to help bring in new work - surviving
under these conditions has developed a can-do/letme-at-it attitude almost everywhere, and a shared
understanding of how to do it.
Eight years ago the plant went to a single job
classification in production, cross training everyone
on everything - a press operator one day might
change dies as well, the next day work in the
assembly area building hoods in the morning and
fenders in the afternoon - and the following day go
off to another plant to review a piece of equipment
or part for how to bring it back.
For this new business Jim Lesniewski wanted to
do the initial recon. He went on the last trip too,
experimenting with his video camera. Now he
thinks he's ready to do a perfect taping job. He got
the idea himself while trying to bring several jobs at
once back from another GM facility. This
environment encourages self initiative.
In addition to taping the operational assembly
process he added close-ups of key equipment pieces
this time. In the debrief review everyone saw the
same thing at the same time - there was almost no
debate over what to bring back and what to ignore and you got a jump on the equipment modifications
by seeing what was needed in advance. Some time
ago the value of having a good cross section
represented in these reviews became evident:
nobody gets surprised, everyone shares their
knowledge, and when the eqchine, two welding
robots, the welding fixtures, two press piercers, the
shuttles, the press welders, and the three automated
material handling fixtures. Basically bringing back
a foot print of 200 square feet from a process that
covered 2500 square feet. The rest will go to
salvage disposition while the hemmer goes to
"hemmer heaven" - that place in your plant where
some 200 different hemmers hang out until needed.
That you only need the hemmer is where a key
part of the plant's unique core competency comes to
play. Rather than build a growing variety of product
on some
Operational Story
~ 2 MS Word Pages
RRS - JIT Assembly Lines
ACP
AAP - JIT Assembly Lines
Response Ability Model
3 MS PowerPoint Slides
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Detailed
Conceptual Design
Documentation
---------------Comprehensive
to one
Skilled in the Arts
• Problem/Opportunity
• Response Objectives
• Response Issues/Metrics
• Strategic Activity Web
• Architecture & Integrity
• Applied Principles
• Closure Matrix
• Conclusion & References
~ 20-30 Pages
Due as Deliverable #2
1:18
Minimum: 80 Hrs Outside-of-Class Work
10-20 Hrs reading the text book
30-20 Hrs researching and noodling
40 Hrs composing and writing
Strawman budget
You are Graduate Students
A – Thoughtfully engaged with demonstrated application-design understanding
B – Read, followed instructions, applied tools, demonstrated utility understanding
C – Any of: blew it off, no understanding of basic concepts demonstrated, didn’t
complete the closure matrix and discussion or other basic project steps.
---- This is about: how your system addresses surprises (primary)
not about what your system does functionally (secondary)
Key: When it clicks…that drag-and-drop, plug-and-play (operational activity)
is enabled by “encapsulated” modules and “evolving” frameworks,
and that you have this all around you in your life…and you already know it well:
• Providing dinner for surprise guests
• Assembling a team for a task
• Appreciating your football team in action
• Reconfiguring your home entertainment system or your PC
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1:19
The Professor’s Model
Objective:
1) Cause insightful understanding of permanence
2) Instigate an open community of employment and extension
Belief:
1) The concepts are natural and all around us,
and are already viscerally understood
2) Many types of barriers can inhibit explicit understanding
Short goal:
Rock solid understanding of drag-n-drop, plug-n-play as
architecture of encapsulated modules and evolving framework
Long goal:
Appreciation and utility of the other 8 principles develops naturally
Strategy:
1) Exposure to a wide variety of examples
2) Fast drill-and-practice exercises with critical feedback
3) Discover and overcome individual assimilation barriers
Assumption: The student is equally engaged
Commitment: I will help anyone who shows commitment
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1:20
General Daily Session Structure
Morning - 3.5 Hrs:
1.0 - Peer review and discussion of last exercise
Break
1.5 - Morning lecture
1.0 - Team work on exercise
Lunch (email, phone calls, etc)
Afternoon - 3.5 Hrs:
1.0 - Peer review and discussion of last exercise
Break
1.5 - Afternoon lecture
1.0 - Team work on exercise
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1:21
Exercises During The Class
Time will be allocated during sessions to apply new learning, and
for feed-back reviews of knowledge application.
Collaborative teams will form (more than 4 teams difficult to brief out).
Three types of tool-use exercises will occur during sessions:
1) Class Warm-ups: Instructor records volunteered suggestions.
2) Team Trials: A trial stab at using key tools to analyze an
Agile System Development process, with 2 feed-back brief outs.
3) Team Project: Teams work with all tools on team project.
Each team will choose an agile-system engineering project,
with 7 feed-back brief outs.
The subsequent term project will apply all of the tools to a system
design project – with relevance to your professional employment.
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1:22
In-Class Tool Applications
Class Warm-ups
Team Trials
Team Project
Unit 2
AAP Analysis: Case
ConOps: Objectives
Unit 3
RS Analysis: Case
Reactive/Proactive
Unit 4
Unit 5
RS Analysis
RRS Analysis: Case
Unit 6
Unit 7
Unit 8
RS Analysis
Framework/Modules
RRS Analysis
Reality Factors: Case
RRS + Integrity
Reality + Activities
Integrity
Closure
Unit 9
Unit 10
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1:23
Course Roadmap
Have You Signed The Attendance Roster?
Fundamentals
Analysis
Session 1 – Overview and Introduction to Agile Systems
Session 2 – Problem Space and Solution Space
Session 3 – Response Types, Metrics, Values
Session 4 – Situational Analysis and Strategy Exercise
Tools
Session 5 – Architecture and Design Principles
Synthesis
Session 6 – Design Exercise and Strategy Refinement
Integration
Session 7 – Quality: Principles, Reality, Strategy
Session 8 – Operations: Closure and Integrity Management
Perspective
Session 9 – Culture and Proficiency Development
Session 10 – The Edge of Knowledge, Projects
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1:24
Change and Uncertainty
The Paris edition of the New York
Herald summed up Europe's opinion of
the Wright brothers in an editorial on
February 10, 1906: "The Wright have
flown or they have not flown. They
possess a machine or they do not
possess one. They are in fact either
fliers or liars. It is difficult to fly. It's
easy to say, 'We have flown.'"
Some Examples of What’s Happening Now
(that weren’t dreamed of a short while ago)
File
The launch, as seen from the
International Space Station
On November 12, 1906, Alberto SantosDumont flew 220 meters (726 feet),
capturing the 1500 franc Aero-Club de
France prize from the Aero-Club for the
first 100-meter flight.
www.first-to-fly.com/History/Wright%20Story/prizepatrol.htm
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1:25
BREAK
Your Class web-page:
Support docs & links:
www.parshift.com/678/current.htm
www.parshift.com/678/support.htm
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1:26
The UURVE Environment Drives Need for Agility
for both agile systems and agile systems engineering
Agile systems have effective situational response options, under:
• Unpredictability: randomness among unknowable possibilities.
• Uncertainty: randomness among known possibilities with unknowable
probabilities.
• Risk: randomness among known possibilities with knowable
probabilities.
• Variation: randomness among knowable variables and knowable
variance ranges.
• Evolution: gradual (relatively) successive developments.
But agility doesn’t occur unless someone actively:
• is aware that a situation warrants a response
• has options appropriate for a response
• selects and affects an appropriate response
Minds-on hands-on full and timely engagement.
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1:27
How We Know What We Are Talking About
Darwin didn’t have a model of evolution that he tried to prove or force fit. He
observed, and asked, “What’s going on here and how does it work?”
From that he iterated on model refinement until he could find no exceptions and
could make effective predictions. That’s science, not conjecture, not a kinda good
idea, not opinion.
Similarly…
We analyzed hundreds of real-world systems that exhibited agility,
asked how they did that, and converged on a model that fit the facts.
No conjecture, no kinda good idea, no opinion.
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1:28
Agile System History Perspective
Agile manufacturing systems - 1991
Agile enterprise Systems - 1992
Agile CCRP C2 - 1996
Software development – 2001 (with predecessor work, e.g., Spiral, etc)
Military as agile enterprise - 2013
Systems engineering becomes a focus - 2015
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1:29
Webster Sets the Context
Agile: adjective.
1) quick and well coordinated in movement; nimble.
2) active, lively.
3) marked by an ability to think quickly; mentally acute or aware.
Agility: noun.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Agile Manifesto authors are upset with the noun usage of Agile,
which refers to a family of software development procedures
that have little to do with agility, by their now-vocal reckoning.
Dave Thomas. 2014. Agile is dead (long live agility).
http://pragdave.me/blog/2014/03/04/time-to-kill-agile/
Andy Hunt. 2015. An Experiment: The GROWS Method.
www.infoq.com/articles/grows-method-experiment
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1:30
American Football is Agility in Action
Operational Environment
• Unpredictability (injury)
• Uncertainty (composition of opposing team on game day)
• Risk (impaired team-work day)
• Variation (weather)
• Evolution (team competencies)
Dynamic game situations require certain response capabilities, e.g.
• Creating a tailored game plan for each game
• Improving opponent-evaluation accuracy
• Migrating pre to post salary cap rule, and now concussion concerns
• Modifying game plan strategy, replacing Troy Polamalu (Steelers)
• Correcting on-field competitive mismatch in specific position
• Varying defense-offence competitive strength balance
• Expansion/contraction range of player-position depth of 2-4 minimum
• Reconfiguring mix of 11-on-field frequently
Performance quality is determined
by degree of engagement of every team member at every moment
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1:31
American Football
http://football.about.com/od/footballpositions/Football_Positions.htm
11 players on field per side
Offensive positions:
8 with some pairs
Defensive positions:
6 with many pairs
Special teams positions:
7 with some multiples
Adaptation is an immediate, appropriate, different response in functionality. This
can only occur if functional resources can be added, modified, or reconfigured
quickly. A good sports team has more players than it fields at any one time, so
that the coach can mix and match the players’ skill-sets according to the
opposition, the situation, and real-time developments.
Reconfiguring a sports team with different players during game time doesn’t
work, though, if players bring their own rules with them. The players all know the
rules of the game and they all know their team’s playbook. The coach exercises a
drag-and-drop, plug-and-play operational strategy enabled by an actively
managed team-system structure. Complex system behaviors arise from the
interactions of simple rules. Were this not the case, it would be impossible to
sustain complex behavior in the face of increased opportunities for failure.
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
1:32
Introduction to Agile Systems
Agility defined
Origin and research history
Features and values
Reality and risk management
Confusions in the literature
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1:33
Cats Are the Icon of Agility
ISSUE
We agree that cats are agile. Why?
Aware. Nimble. Focused on value.
Agile
is more than
Rapid
But on a hot tin roof they're spastic. Why?
- Info overload.
- Lost awareness.
- Inability to create options.
Up a tree they're catatonic. Why?
- Paralyzed with fear.
- Lost awareness.
- Inability to create options.
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1:34
Another Issue
Agile System-Engineering
is an instance of
Agile-System Engineering
This Course is Not About
Agile Software Development
and Extreme Programming
but…they are examples
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
1:35
Why Now?
Years Ago
2,500,000
40,000
4,000
500
0
Stone tools - humans live as apes
Great leap forward (Language-caused? art, houses, weapons, war)
Horse domesticated, plow invented, wheel invented
Water travel begins to homogenize humanity globally
Space exploration, nuclear physics, genetic engineering,
global communications, networked humanity, ……………
Genetically we last major-changed around 40,000 years ago
Knowledge, created and diffused by language,
has been driving human evolution ever since.
Knowledge
Explosion
From Jared Diamond's The Third Chimpanzee for general times and characteristics. The statement that we last genetically changed 40,000 years is my
interpretation of his writings. His conjecture was that the voice box was responsible for the great leap forward in human development, which provided the
uniquely human capability to then incorporate vowels into utterances, which led to a spoken language that could convey complexity and nuance, which led to
thought, and to thoughts that could be passed on to others. The emergence of a new form of evolving stuff.
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
1:36
Why Now?
Knowledge
builds on
knowledge
The more
you have
the more
you get
The knee
of the curve
is passed
Nuclear physics
Personal computer
Semiconductors in everything
Space travel
Genetic engineering
Internet
Globalization
Drones & Robots
Nano-technology
Quantum computing?
Hydrogen economy?
Human-equivalent AI?
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
Decisions
must be made
faster…
…and
implemented
immediately
Knowledge
Explosion
1:37
The Law of Accelerating Returns
"An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is
exponential, contrary to the common-sense 'intuitive linear' view. So we won't
experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000
years of progress (at today's rate).
"Within a few decades … technological change so rapid and profound it
represents a rupture in the fabric of human history.
Ray Kurzweil, 2001
A few of his many honors and awards...
2000
1999
1994
1993
1982
1982
Lemelson-MIT Prize. This $500,000 award is largest in U.S. in invention and innovation
National Medal of Technology, nation's highest honor in technology, President Clinton
Dickson Prize, Carnegie Mellon University’s top science prize
ACM Fellow Award, Association for Computing Machinery
Computer Science Award, President Reagan
Admitted to the Computer Industry Hall of Fame
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
1:38
Guest Speaker – Ray Kurzweil
File23
How technology's accelerating power will transform us
Prolific inventor and outrageous visionary Ray Kurzweil
explains in abundant, grounded detail why -- by the 2020s -- we
will have reverse-engineered the human brain, and nanobots
will be operating your consciousness. Kurzweil draws on years
of research to show the speed at which technology is evolving,
and projects forward into an almost unthinkable future to
outline the ways we'll use technology to augment our own
capabilities, forever blurring the lines between human and
machine.
Inventor, entrepreneur, visionary, Ray Kurzweil's accomplishments read as a startling series
of firsts -- a litany of technological breakthroughs we've come to take for granted. Kurzweil
invented the first optical character recognition (OCR) software for transforming the written
word into data, the first print-to-speech software for the blind, the first text-to-speech
synthesizer, and many electronic instruments.
Yet his impact as a futurist and philosopher is no less significant. In his best-selling books,
which include The Age of Spiritual Machines and The Singularity Is Near: When Humans
Transcend Biology, Kurzweil depicts in detail a portrait of the human condition over the next
few decades, as accelerating technologies forever blur the line between human and
machine.
"Kurzweil's eclectic career and propensity for combining science with practical -- often
humanitarian -- applications have inspired comparisons with Thomas Edison."Time
Video and text above at: http://www.ted.com/index.php/speakers/view/id/42
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1:39
Knowledge Gets Around
Interconnected
Complexity
Art: B.Cheswick & H.Burch
Machines
People
Parts
Bots
IOT
AOL
BBN
ac.jp
att.net
UUNet
dla.mil
Netcom
sprint.net
cw.net (+MCI)
bellglobal.com
10 Networks
61,000 Routers
Speed:
Knowledge
And Response
Are Mismatched
12/98 Wired Magazine
Data mid-September ‘99
Color based on IP address
(old news)
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
1:40
Inertia – The Bane of Agility
Ceasing prior activity
quickly and cleanly
is just as important as
starting new activity.
Bane: a cause of death,
destruction, ruin (Webster)
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
1:41
AGILITY DEFINED
The Ability to Thrive
in a
Continuously Changing,
Unpredictable
Environment.
RECONFIGURABLE EVERYTHING
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
1:42
Agile-Systems Research Focus
Problem:
- Technology and markets are changing faster than
the ability to employ/accommodate
- System-needs are uncertain and unpredictable
- Flexible system approaches inadequate when requirements change
- New approach needed that could extend usefulness/life of systems
Solution Search:
- Examined 100s of systems of various types
- Looked for systems that responded effectively
- Looked for metrics that defined effectively
- Looked for categories of response types
- Looked for principles that enabled response
Note: This research took place at the Agility Forum 1992-1996, and in subsequent independent research 1997-1999
Essays chronicle knowledge development at www.parshift.com/library.htm
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
1:43
Defining Agility
Agility is effective response to opportunity and problem,
within mission ... always.
Not fast,
…just fast enough
An effective response is one that is:
timely (fast enough to deliver value),
affordable (at a cost that leaves room for an ROI),
predictable (can be counted on to meet expectations),
comprehensive (anything/everything within mission boundary).
An ineffective response is failure - there is zero tolerance for failure today.
You can think of Agility as Requisite Variety.
You can think of Agility as proactive Risk Management.
The trick is understanding the nature of agile-enabling concepts, and
how they can be applied to any type of system.
Domain Independent
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
1:44
Agility deals with
“design-for-transformation”
so continuous improvement
is facilitated,
not just mandated.
Lean: Process Operation
Lean & Agile: Orthogonal Concerns
Agile: Process Transformation
Lean thinking demands continuous improvement … brute-force required
Agile thinking facilitates continuous improvement … in both dimensions
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
1:45
Naty Rosado, http://natyrosado.com/
Class 1 Agile Systems are Reconfigurable
Useful Metaphors:
Plug-and-Play – Drag-and-Drop
Helen Wells, www.yessy.com/artists.html?l=w&p=6
Class 2 Agile Systems are Reconfiguring
Useful Metaphors:
Ecologies and Evolution
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
1:46
Typical Enterprise Systems
Product Systems
Process Systems
Practice Systems
People Systems
- Knowledge management
- Machine tool
- Agile SW Development - Supply chain mgmnt
- Laptop computer
- Chemical production
- Project management - Company of departments
- IT network
- Purchasing
- Product development - Community of practice
- Legal contract
- Auto assembly plant
- Strategic planning
- Computer Program - System Engineering
- UAV swarm attack
- UAV
Rigid
Guided
- Market of customers
- Proposal development - Project team
- System architecting
Informed
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
- Net centric warfare
Willful
1:47
www.datacenterknowledge.com/inside-the-box-container-video-tours/
www.datacenterknowledge.com/archives/2010/08/11/the-blackbox-lives-or-at-least-is-not-dead/
www.zdnet.com/blog/datacenter/suns-datacenter-container-forgotten-but-not-gone/398
File
case
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
1:48
Agility is Risk Management
The value proposition for agility
is
risk management.
Agility provides options
for
mitigating risk
in
the face of uncertainty.
--------------------------------------------------------------------Value Proposition
Risk management in an evolving unpredictable environment is the
value proposition for agile systems.
An agile system is constructed to enable and facilitate
augmentation, reconfiguration and scalability of reusable assets in
response to unpredictable situations,
and agility is sustained with active management of responsibilities
that constantly evolve the agility enabling capabilities.
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
1:49
New Risks from Enterprise Agility
But.......Agile business practices bring
new enterprise risks and vulnerabilities
Some typical current examples…
Internal data and processes are web accessible
All employees are web communicators
New technologies are employed faster
Network complexity increases
Partner interconnections are time critical
Business processes are outsourced
COTS employment has several problems
Multicultural staff – differing ethic norms
Just because you can doesn’t mean you should…turn on a dime
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
1:50
Guest Speaker: Andrew McAfee
File14
Are droids taking our jobs?
Filmed Jun 2012 • TEDxBoston 2012
Robots and algorithms are getting good at jobs like building cars,
writing articles, translating -- jobs that once required a human. So
what will we humans do for work? Andrew McAfee walks through
recent labor data to say: We ain't seen nothing yet. But then he
steps back to look at big history, and comes up with a surprising
and even thrilling view of what comes next.
Andrew McAfee studies the ways that information technology (IT) affects businesses,
business as a whole, and the larger society. His research investigates how IT changes the
way companies perform, organize themselves, and compete. At a higher level, his work also
investigates how computerization affects competition, society, the economy, and the
workforce.
He's a principal research scientist at the Center for Digital Business, at the MIT Sloan School
of Management. Hs books include Enterprise 2.0 and Race Against the Machine (with Erik
Brynjolfsson). Read more on his blog.
“Within [our lifetimes], we're going to transition into an economy that … doesn't need a lot
of human workers. Managing that transition is going to be the greatest challenge that our
society faces.” (Andrew McAfee)
Video and text at: www.ted.com/talks/andrew_mcafee_are_droids_taking_our_jobs.html
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
1:51
http://singularityhub.com/2013/01/22/robot-serves-up-340-hamburgers-per-hour/
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
1:52
Some Term Project Ideas
(must be relevant to your professional employment)
Agile Systems Integration Laboratory – Architecture and Operation
Service Oriented Architecture (eg, supporting Agile Enterprise)
Agile Aircraft Depot Maintenance HD&L Operations
Joint Tactical Radio System (eg, Interoperability)
Agile Enterprise Practices for QRC Response
An Agile Aircraft xxx System Utilizing COTS
Agile Systems-Engineering (eg, for QRC)
Agile Concepts for Outsourcing Support
Team WikiSpeed Modified for Work-Related Process
Applying Agile Systems Concepts in the Workplace
Agile System Integration, Verification, and Validation Process
An agile migration process from status quo to a more agile operation
Agile Development-Infrastructure for Other-Than-Software Projects
Should decide on a topic before Unit 6 – For Approval
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
1:53
Some Past Term Projects
Quick Reliable Capable (QRC), Incorporated
Concept for Successful Outsourcing
Aircraft Modification Plant (Process System)
Adaptive UAV ISR
Strategic Innovations in Training
Agile Approach to IPTs
Quick Reaction Capability (QRC) Integrated Product Team (IPT) Organization
Rapidly configurable mission system architecture
John Boyd’s Fit with Agile RAP* Concepts
“Last Planner” approach to System Integration
Agile Intermediate Level Test Station Design
*RAP: Response Ability Principles
rick.dove@stevens.edu, attributed copies permitted
1:54