Patch Dynamics of Urban Ecosystems:
A case study of the Baltimore Ecosystem Study
Morgan Grove and Bill Burch
http://www.ecostudies.org/bes
with significant contributions from Chris Boone, Ann Kinzig, Larry Band, Neely
Law, Peter Groffman, Steward Pickett, and Mary Cadenasso
Introduction
• Overview of BES Site and BES Patch
Dynamics Approach
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Site
Temporal Dynamics
Spatial Dynamics
Scale
Integration through Patch Dynamics
• Application of Patch Dynamics Approach to
Social Patches
BES Site:
Watersheds
BES Site: Land Use
Temporal Dynamics
• Non-linear
change
and thresholds
• Feedbacks
within
and among
scales
• Time lags
• Legacies
Feedbacks
• How have ecological systems influenced
social patterns and processes in an urban
ecosystem?
• How have social patterns and processes
influenced use and management of ecological
resources in an urban ecosystem?
• How are these interactions changing over
time, and what does this mean for the urban
ecosystem?
Spatial Dynamics
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•
•
•
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Area/perimeter
Shape
Neighborhood
Matrix and Connectivity
Configuration
Connectivity:
Development impacts on flowpaths and
water/carbon/nutrient cycling (Law and Band)
Spatial Dynamics: Configuration
Scale: Discipline and Theory
• Levels of Organization and Disciplines
– Individuals, families, communities, and societies
– Psychology, anthropology, sociology, political
science, economics, geography
• Hierarchy Theory
– Strong and weak ties within and between levels of
organization
– Lower level behavior; upper level control
– Endogenous and exogenous change
• Panarchy Theory
(Holling et al., 2001)?
Scale: Diagram
Scale: Geography
Integrated
Patch
Approach:
Revised VSA
Example of
Physical
Patches: Soils
Example of
Biological
Patches:
Landcover
Example of
Social
Patches:
Population
Density
Application of Patch Dynamics
Approach to Social Patches
• Definition of social patches
• Delineation, classification, and
characterization
– Methods
• Spatial Analysis
• Temporal Analysis
• Scale
Definition of Social Patches
• Theoretically basis
• Relatively homogeneous patches w/in a
heterogeneous landscape at a given scale
• Size and classification can vary, depending on
the research question
• For this research, we are trying to understand
variation within residential land use, between
neighborhoods.
Delineation, Classification, and
Characterization of Social
Patches
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•
•
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•
Census Block Group Boundaries
PRIZM Classification (CLARITAS)
Household Telephone Survey
Field Observation Survey
Aerial and Remote Sensing
Background on PRIZM
• PRIZM Lifestyle Market Classifications,
Claritas
• Classifies Census block groups based on
– urban gradient
– economic gradient
– social characteristics
• 62 “lifestyle clusters,” which can be
aggregated into 15 and 5 social groups
Social Cluster 8: “2nd City”
• Middleburg Managers
(cluster 32): Median HH
income = $42,000
• What’s Hot
• Towns and Gowns
(cluster 36): Median HH
income = $19,700
• What’s Hot
– fraternal orders (155)
– decorative icing (141)
– contacting
– rolling papers (209)
– Star Trek: Deep Space
government officials
(124)
– frozen boneless
chicken (135)
Nine (161)
– Kellogg’s All Bran
(142)
– frozen boneless
chicken (130)
Characterization Focus
• Identity
– Recreation
– Environmental characteristics (landscaping)
• Social Cohesion / Capital
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–
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Trust
Reciprocity
Order (safety, graffiti, garbage)
Stratification (municipal services)
• Environmental, Neighborhood Change
• Environmental Management (lawn care)
• Mass balance (inputs and outputs of nutrients, carbon, water,
and energy)
• Landscape structure (landcover/vegetation, infrastructure,
geomorphology, and lot size, which regulate mass balance)
Field Observation Methods
• 100m and 300m grid for entire study
site
• 5% sample of households for
comparison of geographies
• Emphasis on residential areas
Sampling
Grids and
Aerials
(Emerge, 1999)
Sampling Grids
and Administrative
Records
(ex. Maryland Property View, 1999)
3 levels of aggregation:
62 : numbered
15 : colored
5 : not shown
Linking Social
Datasets:
Telephone by PRIZM code
Telephone, Field, and Census
Surveys
Telephone: common PRIZM codes
Field: common geography
PRIZM by Census block group*
*PRIZM codes : numbered; grid cells sampled : yellow squares
Field by sample grid cell #
Spatial Analysis
• Configuration (land use)
• Neighborhood Analysis (block group
classification)
Existing Theories for Social
Pattern
• Mono-centric model
(nucleus/gradient)
– Concentric ring model
(pre-1945)
• Poly-centric model
(multi-nucleus/multigradient)
– Multiple concentric rings
(post-1945)
• Sector model
– Development follows
transportation corridors
Spatial Dynamics: Configuration
Land Use
Phoenix
Urban
Suburban
Rural
(PRIZM)
Baltimore
Spatial Dynamics: Neighborhood Analysis
Ethnicity -- Phoenix and Baltimore
(ratio of total # patches per class / “dissolved” # patches per class)
Ethnicity Index
20
18
16
14
12
Phoenix
10
8
6
4
2
0
Baltimore
Baltimore
Non-white
Phoenix
Mixed
White
Temporal Analysis
• Historic Geographies
• Historic Attributes
Historic Census Geographies:
1990 – 1960 Census Comparison
Boundaries of Census Tracts for Baltimore City. Red lines are 1990
boundaries, black are 1960. The first number of the census tract identifiers
for 1960 correspond to the old ward numbers (1910). Reconstructing
digital ward boundaries from 1990 census tract boundaries is a matter of
‘working backward’ and aggregating or disaggregating areal units.
Historic Supplemental Geographies:
Sanborn Maps (beginning in 1870)
Sanborn Fire Insurance Atlases document
land use at a fine scale. The fire insurance
company documented the location and
address of buildings, building materials,
economic activities, streets and
transportation services, and infrastructure,
especially related to water delivery.
Samples from one plate are shown both
above and to the right. The pink color
indicates a brick veneer building, the yellow
a wooden structure
Historic Attribute Data: key social data sets
to link with Census data
 Vital Records:
 Birth Records
 Death Records
 Disease Records
 Demographic:
 Assessment Records/Tax
Rolls
 City Directories
 PRIZM Data
 Social Surveys
 Economic:
 Personal Income
 State GNP
 Assessment Records
 Deeds and Wills

Land Use:
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
Atlases (Sanborn)
Maps
Aerial Photos
Satellite Imagery
Deeds
Historic Attribute Data over Time:
Baltimore City, 1800-2000
County
Personal Income,
1969-98 (3)
Sub-County
Prizm Marketing Data, 1988?-present (6)
Aerial Photos and Sat. Images, 1938present (7)
USGS Topographic Maps, 1880-present (11)
Block Books, 1851-present (10)
City Directories, 1819- present (8)
Individual
Scale
State
Gross State
Product, 1977-98
(4)
Personal Income,
1969-98 (4)
Assessment Rolls, 1815-present (5)
Deeds, pre-1800-present (9)
Sanborn Atlases, 1893-1952 (2)
Birth Records, 1875-1972 (1)
Death Records, 1875-1972 (1)
1800
1850
1900
1950
Time
Vital Statistics/Public Health
Economic
Land Use
Continuous Record
Demographic
Selected Years
Present
Scale: Panarchy Theory and
Patch Cycles over Time
Conclusions
• Overview: patch dynamics approach in terms
of time, space, scale, and integration
• Application to development of a social science
approach to patch dynamics
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Emerging effort, requiring collective approach
Theory-based and contributes to theory
Multiple datasets over space, time, and scale
Multiple analytical skills
Cross-site comparisons (Phoenix, Paris, Lyons,
Budapest)