SPATIAL PLANNING FOR URBANIZATION AND EQUITY:
Challenges for Sri Lanka
Keynote Address 1 for:
the 14th Annual Symposium of the
CENTRE FOR POVERTY ANALYSIS
on the theme:
Towards Re-imagining infrastructure and Urban Development
scheduled for 23-24 November 2015 at the
Sri Lanka Foundation, Colombo 7
K. Locana Gunaratna, PhD
Architect / Urban Planner
Fellow, National Academy of Sciences Sri Lanka
Honorary Fellow, Institute of Town Planners Sri Lanka
Honorary Fellow, Sri Lanka Institute of Architects
Introduction
The Global Network of Science Academies (IAP, 2012):
saw population growth coupled with unplanned urbanization as
being among the ten most serious global concerns; and,
identified the urgent need to implement urban planning policies
that internalize consumption needs and demographic trends for
sustainable urban living.
The scale and pace of current urbanization is most prominently
manifest today in the TWCs.
Urbanization is the result of natural increase in urban populations
and also, more importantly, rural migrations to cities.
A UN agency (ESCAP) predicted as early as in 1993 that by 2020:
- the bulk of the world's population will be urbanized;
- Asian cities will contain more than half that population; and,
that
- 1.5 billion people will be added to the urban centers of Asia.
It is hoped in this presentation to answer, inter alia, the
following questions with particular reference to Sri
Lanka:
• Is the urbanization process inexorable?
• If it is, can the process economically and socially
benefit the country as a whole?
• If so, does it tend to allocate the benefits equitably?
• If not, can its adverse impacts be mitigated?
Urbanization in South Asia
The targets of rural-urban migration are usually the larger cities.
These migrations are so heavy and frequent that very large
populations are forced to live in massive, ever-increasing slums
and shanties.
There were 23 very large cities ('megacities') worldwide in 2011,
each with more than 10 million people.
Asia had 12 megacities with South Asia alone having 5. of them:
- 3 are in India
- New Delhi, Mumbai, and Kolkata ;
-1 in Pakistan
- Karachi, and,
-1 in Bangladesh - Dhaka, the fastest growing of all in South Asia.
The South Asian total of megacities is predicted to increase from
5 to 8 by 2025 (UN, 2012).
Country
Bangladesh
Urban Population
Rate of Urbanization
44,685,923
(28.4 % of total)
2.96 %
391,535,019
(31.3 % of total)
2.47 %
Nepal
4,762,848
(16.2 % of total)
3.62 %
Pakistan
65,481,587
(36.2 % of total)
2.68 %
Sri Lanka
3,092,255
(15.1 % of total)
1.36 %
India
Table 1
(Urban population figures: World Bank staff estimates for 2012. Urbanization
rates: CIA World Fact book estimates for 2010-2015)
These estimates clearly show Sri Lanka as having a low rate of
urbanization as compared to the other countries of South Asia.
The indigenous South Asian coverage of urbanization in its
demographic and socioeconomic aspects is extensive and
competent.
These studies reveal that:
- the largest cities are gaining the bulk of rural migrants; and,
that
- the South Asian megacities experience immense difficulties
with informal settlements.
Examples of some of these are seen in the following photographs:
Slums in Indian
Megacities
Bustees in Bangladesh
(Dhaka)
Slums in Pakistan
(Orangi, Karachi)
Shanties in Sri Lanka
(Colombo)
A few South Asian scholars e.g. Arif and Hamid (2009) are
comforted that the move to cities has resulted in marginal
improvements for some rural migrants.
Others e.g. Sharma (2003), Datta (2006) and Hossain (2006)
show concern:
- that the often illiterate and unskilled rural families escaping rural
poverty, eventually become trapped in squalid urban
environments;
- that their sheer numbers cause un-relievable stresses on
scarce urban infrastructure and services; and,
- that those cities cannot generate employment opportunities
to sustain the massive and continuing influx of rural
migrants.
The Theories
A recent review of planning literature about the concepts and
theories which have influenced and/or relevant to urbanization in
the TWCs (Gunaratna, 2014) yielded two very different outcomes:
- a set of utopian concepts from the late 19th and early 20th
Century Europe which forms the base of most current planning
approaches adopted in South Asia; and,
- a set of more scientifically rigorous theories which could
underlie a far more relevant approach to the problems of
urbanization in the TWCs.
- These latter theories, also of Western origin, are an integral part
of the sub-discipline often known as Spatial Economics.
It will not be possible here to discuss these theories, except to
summarize the relevant findings and whether these concepts and
theories have been put to use in Sri Lanka.
The Utopian Concepts
The spatial solutions based on these utopian concepts are
generally intended to guide the expansion of impacted cities .
They usually involve the planning and building of Garden Cities
with Satellite Towns.
The intellectual underpinnings are British from a century ago.
They are based on the work of Ebenezer Howard.
(See fig..)
Models based on this vision are still almost the only
recognized means of dealing with urbanization in the South
Asian region.
The first two plans for Colombo in the 20th Century (Geddes’1919;
Abecrombie’s 1949) were based on Howard’s theory which
promotes Satellite Towns.
The scale of current urbanization in South Asia is of a different
order of magnitude from its manifestation in late 19th century
Britain, when the utopian concept was first envisioned.
This is evident when one notes that:
- the total urban population of England and Wales in 1901 was
25.1 million (Hicks and Allen, 1999); and that
- the current urban population of India grows by double that
figure every 5 years.
A serious researcher discussing the development of Navi
Mumbai, which is the latest of Mumbai's satellite towns,
observes that:
"In the 1960s and 1970s, Asian urban development policies
centered on slowing down the rate of urbanization…Satellite
towns and greenbelts have been among the most widely
adopted means to achieve this. However,…(they) have proved
to be ineffectual…
The development of New Bombay is a reflection of many of the
problems that have beset satellite-town building in Asia."
(Shaw, 1995)
Theories from Spatial Economics
There are several urban planning theories from Spatial Economics.
I will first discuss some of the less useful of those theories that
have been put into practice in the TWCs.
Growth Centre Theories
The intrusion of Economic Growth Theory took place
immediately following World War II, intended to help rebuild war
ravaged Europe.
With this effort underway, the theory was adopted and applied to
the TWCs beginning around 1951.
It influenced spatial planning through several ‘Growth Center'
models which became popular.
These ‘Growth Center’ models proposed that:
capital investment for developing a lagging region, should
be made in large concentrations at a few pre-selected
geographic points. Development would then result and spread
from these points.
Unfavorable scholarly reactions based on evidence against
these models began to appear in the late 1970s and early
1980s.
We in Sri Lanka, unwisely, base a lot of our work on this very
theory.
An important Indian research project rejected the concept
almost 4 decades ago (Roy & Patil, 1977: 6) as being irrelevant
to development work in India, favoring instead an alternative
concept.
The Theory of Duality and Some Criticisms
A school of thought traceable to Boeke (1953) saw a TWC's
economy as being a duality consisting of:
a backward, tradition-bound agriculture sector; coexisting with
a small, urban industrial sector, where capitalism has been
imported full-blown from the West.
He and his followers see a serious future for the TWCs
only in the urban industrial sector.
Some alarming predictions on the consequences of horizontal
urban expansions are:
- the tripling of urban land cover worldwide within the next three
decades;
- a notable adverse impact upon biodiversity; and,
- that the main biodiversity 'hotspots' likely to be affected are in the
TWCs with many being in South Asia. (Seto et al, 2012)
• There were still others too, who also saw that rural outmigration would adversely impact upon the urgent
need to increase and maintain agricultural production for
food security in the TWCs.
• In this regard, the views of Nobel Laureates Theodore
Schultz (1964) and Norman E. Borlaug (1970), and,
the very first World Food Prize winner M.S.
Swaminathan (1987) may be mentioned.
• They strongly recommend the interventions of science
and technology in agriculture for rural and regional
development.
Such interventions should now also include organic farming
and recent advances in biotechnology, subject to safety
protocols (IAC, 2004).
Clearly, the lot of the Third World's rural poor can be vastly
improved insitu while enhancing other national
development objectives.
Other Theories from Spatial Economics
Some studies and theories, clearly different from the
‘utopian’ proposals, became part of a more scientifically
rigorous and essentially German school of thought. These
are useful.
A few other scholars have studied the relationship between the
‘rank’ and ‘size’ of towns within countries, where rank refers to
hierarchical order and the size of towns is measured by numbers of
urban residents.
These scientists notably include: Jefferson (1936) and Linsky
(1965).
Their findings suggest a distinct pattern common especially to
small, coastal TWCs that have been subjected to colonialism.
In these, the largest city predominates substantially over the next
in rank, where the first ranking urban place is called a
‘primate city’. (see figs)
A Latin American scholar (Frank, 1969) sought to establish a
causal link between colonialism and the condition of
underdevelopment.
He saw that the urban configurations of most TWCs was highly
skewed, and attributed skewing process to the military and
economic agencies of the respective colonial powers that had been
active in those countries.
His views are well recognized today. A UN publication states:
“…many developing countries are characterized by a socalled dendritic market system, which is the legacy of a
colonial past and/or of persisting international dependency
relations...”
(UN/ESCAP, 1979:58)
E.A.J. Johnson (1970) was one of the first among Western
scholars to have understood:
- that a skewed dendritic inter-urban structure left behind as a
colonial legacy, has little utility for national development in a
TWC;
- that market forces alone cannot alter such a skewed national
urban system;
- That intervention at the national policy level is needed to free
that TWC from this colonially derived structural constraint.
It is clear that we in Sri Lanka have only one comparatively
large city and the rest are small towns.
Furthermore, most of the urban areas are concentrated in the Wet
Zone. (See fig. below)
Small and Mid-sized Towns
A sound spatial planning approach first drafted at a South Asian
seminar/workshop in Kathmandu (1978) has since begun to
gain some support. Thereafter two subsequent papers appeared
which are discussed below.
The first author (Rondinelli,1986) makes a case for establishing
mid-sized cities by stating :
- that colonial economic policies reinforced by post-colonial
economic growth strategies of the 1950s and 1960s were major
causes of the rapid growth of a few primate cities in most
Asian countries;
- that the emphasis was on developing urban industry over
rural development;
- that the distributional effects and the spatial implications of
investment allocation were largely ignored;
-that although the effort was to modernize the metropolitan
economy (which incidentally is what we in Sri Lanka are trying
to do now), rural regions were neglected and left poor and
underdeveloped; also,
that in countries with dominant primate cities but without the
support of national urban policies, secondary mid-sized cities
cannot grow large enough and have sufficiently diversified
economies to attract rural migrants, stimulate agricultural
economies and promote regional development.
The second paper also justifies the development of small and
intermediate urban places. The authors (Hardoy and Satterthwaite,
1988) have based their recommendations on reviews of over 100
empirical studies across the TWCs and a large number of national
programs for small and intermediate towns.
According to them, spatial programs
"...can be a crucial component in attaining social and
economic objectives such as increasing the…populations
reached by basic services; increasing and diversifying
agricultural production; and increasing the influence of
citizens living in sub-national and sub-regional political and
administration units...”
(Hardoy and Satterthwaite, 1988)
A UN publication (ESCAP, 1979: 87) provides some valuable
observations and general conclusions for the Asia Pacific regional
context. It proceeds to state:
- that urban-rural inequality is a major problem in the region;
- that the disparities in respect of services, income earning
opportunities and wage rates have caused concern; and
- that many governments in the region should pay more
attention to rural development to achieve a more balanced
growth spatially and between rural and urban areas.; and,
- achievement of a more equitable distribution of the benefits
of national development and economic growth.
Even assuming a committed approach to rural development, outmigration from rural areas for non-farm occupations may be
expected to continue, though on a reduced scale.
Rather than have rural migrants target the larger cities, the more
manageable and preferred scenario would be where they move to
the small and mid - sized towns in progression.
This of course requires that these latter towns must be sufficiently
attractive to the migrants.
Then, movements to the large cities would be confined mainly to
migrants from mid-sized towns. This pattern of internal migration is
sometimes referred to as "decentralized urbanization" (Sharma,
2003. 10.6, 410).
The urban - based services in small and mid-sized towns not only
require built infrastructure but also people with special skills as
residents.
As such skills are not readily available, a proactive planned
urban settlement program to provide these skills in S&M towns is
a clear need. (Gunaratna, 2000).
Conclusions Relevant to Sri Lanka
Inter-urban configurations within most smaller TWCs were
formed in response to the needs of their respective colonial
economies.
They are seen today as being peculiar in two ways:
- the predominance of a single 'Primate City' over all other
towns; and,
- the highly skewed pattern of their respective inter-urban
configurations.
In these respects, Sri Lanka is typical of such TWCs.
Post-colonial strategies for high economic growth, made
within the framework of such deformed spatial structures, will
benefit mainly the elites of the Primate City, which in Sri
Lanka is Colombo.
Such development efforts will continue to accentuate
income inequalities across the country as well as within
the Primate City.
To readjust a distorted inter-urban spatial structure towards
new development strategies that emphasize equity, small
and mid-sized towns are inevitably needed in locations
relevant to the new strategies.
If the old colonial spatial structure is not re-adjusted in this
manner, but those development efforts are focused only on the
Primate City i.e. Colombo:
- Rural - urban migration will be exacerbated;
- income disparities across these countries and within the
Primate City will be accentuated;
- the consolidation of new slums and shanties will result;
and
- they will become an increasing part of the urban built
environment.
Such happenings are clearly evident in most TWCs.
Continued growth in this manner with mounting environmental
consequences can then give rise to diseconomies of scale
resulting even in the flight of capital needed to drive further
growth.
On a different note, the impact upon TWCs of the on-going
globalization and popularization of scientific developments
and technological innovations needs to be recognized.
These, particularly ICT, can and should be utilized to alter
the spatial landscapes of the South Asian countries
including Sri Lanka.
• It should be clear by now that the urbanization process
is likely to continue inexorably in South Asia.
• Its relatively new appearance and progress in Sri Lanka
will gain ground if the main focus of developmental
attention is to be focused on the Western Province.
• While macro benefits may accrue to the country as a
whole it seems likely that the process will
economically, socially and environmentally benefit
mainly the Colombo Region.
• The income differentials within the country may widen.
Furthermore, the benefits within the city will reach the
elite more than the urban poor.
• However these adversities could be mitigated with
concerted action based on careful planning.
A new plan for the Colombo Region especially with political
will behind it, as appears to be the case today, is most
welcome.
However, it has to be recognized:
- that all megacities in the Third World have grown mainly
through high rural-urban migrations; and,
- that they consequently have gained massive, slums and
shanties with virtually unmanageable social and
environmental problems.
There may be a better chance of success with urbanization in
Sri Lanka because of our previous focus on promoting agriculture
and rural development and, consequently, we have so far been
insulated to a great extent from high rural-urban migration.
• In the past seven decades, we in Sri Lanka have had
three comprehensive plans prepared for the Colombo
Region.
• All three planning efforts were superseded with time,
one by one, due mainly to the lack of political
commitment.
Despite this initial advantage, if we now focus our development
efforts on the already better served Western Region and the
country’s only relatively large city, high rural-urban migration
could still cause the same fate of megacities elsewhere,
unless special precautions are taken.
The main precautions are that planning and implementation work:
- should carefully avoid irrelevant concepts and theories
found to be faulty;
- should be backed by scientific knowledge;
- That work must be done within an environmentally
predicated national spatial policy; and finally, for ultimate
success,
it is absolutely necessary that we ourselves should
deliberate, define and decide upon the national policy
framework that should govern all aspects of this very
special development effort.
THANK YOU
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