Seeing the Dream:
Social Mobility, Social Indicators and Data
Community Indicators Consortium
Washington DC, 29th September 2014
Richard V. Reeves
Policy Director, Center on Children and Families,
The Brookings Institution
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Top Lines
• Conceptual clarity comes first:
- What is the American Dream?
- Equality of what?
• Select the right data: bring it to life
• Words are good, too
• Highlighting mobility with indicators: the UK
experiment
• The US mobility challenge
• Listen to O’Keefe
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What is the American
Dream?Horatio Alger’s version
“In this free country
poverty in early life is
no bar to a man’s
advancement. … Save
your money, my lad,
buy books, and
determine to be
somebody,” Mr Whitney
to ‘Ragged Dick’, 1868
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Pres. Obama’s Version (and of course, that
of every President before him)…
“I renew my
commitment to the
basic bargain that built
this country – the idea
that if you work hard
and meet your
responsibilities, you can
get ahead, no matter
where you come
from…”
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What is the American Dream?
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Shared prosperity?
Rising living standards?
A strong middle class?
No poverty?
Fair treatment?
Meritocracy?
High rates of relative mobility?
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Equality of What?
Careful Not to Just Pick Your Measure…
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My Version of the American Dream,
In Lego…
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http://www.brookings.edu/research/essays/2014/s
aving-horatio-alger
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3. Words are Good, Too…
Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent,
a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all
men are created equal.
Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or
any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met
on a great battle-field of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of
that field, as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that
that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do
this.
But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate -- we can not consecrate -- we
can not hallow -- this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who
struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or
detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but
it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be
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Or, this…
http://www.norvig.com/Gettysburg/index.htm
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Social Mobility Seizes the UK
“We both want a Britain where social mobility is
unlocked; where everyone, regardless of
background, has the chance to rise as high as their
talents and ambition allow them” – Prime Minister
and Deputy Prime Minister, Foreword to the Coalition
Agreement, May 2010
“This is not to say that everybody’s life is
determined from day one. But it is clear that
the odds are stacked against some of those
newborns, and in favour of others. And when
that is the case, we are not just talking
about inequality, but about what amounts
to social segregation. Social segregation
occurs when inequalities become frozen
across time, when people are trapped in
the position of their birth. – Nick Clegg,
2010
“This waste of talent, this squandering of
human potential, this grotesque failure to give
all our fellow citizens an equal chance is a
reproach to our conscience. It can’t be allowed
to continue. And under this Government the
injustice will end”- Secretary of State for
Education, October 2011
“I believe inequality shouldn’t be handed down,
generation to generation, like the colour of our hair. –
Ed Miliband, 2012
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Leading to a UK commitment …
“A fair society is an open society, one in
which every individual is free to succeed.
That is why improving social mobility is
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The Government’s focus is on improving interthe principal
goal of the Government’s
generational relative social mobility:
social policy” – Opening Doors, Breaking
Barriers Executive Summary, April 2011
See download.cabinetoffice.gov.uk/social-mobility/opening-doors-breaking-barriers.pdf
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Five Principles for Social Mobility
A long-term view
A progressive approach
Social mobility is, by definition, a long-term challenge. The Government’s
investment and policy decisions will reflect that. There are no quick fixes.
Resources will be focused on those from disadvantaged backgrounds while
narrowing opportunity gaps all the way up the income scale
Government does not have
all the answers
Improving social mobility requires the whole of society to play its part. The
strategy challenges Government and wider society to do better, supported by
greater accountability and transparency
A ruthlessly evidence based
approach
Effort and finance will be channelled in the ways that evidence tells us makes
most difference to social mobility – particularly essential in a time of fiscal
constraint where we must do more with less
A life-cycle approach
Policies need to impact across the life-cycle to make a difference – from the
Foundation Years, through school life and the key transitions from education
into the working world
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Leading Indicators of Success
Indicator
Sub-indicators
Department
1. Low Birth Weight
Low Birth Weight (disadvantage gap)
DH
2. Child Development
Child development at age 2½ (TBC)
DH
Gap in school readiness at age 5
DfE
Attainment of Level 4 at KS2 (FSM gap)
DfE
Attainment of “the basics” at GCSE (FSM gap)
DfE
Attainment of “the basics” at GCSE (deprived school gap)
DfE
Attainment by 19 of children in state and independent schools (AAB at A level)
DfE
4. Employment and
participation in
education (age 18-24)
18-24 year olds participating in (full or part-time) education or training (disadvantage gap)
BIS
18-24 year olds not in full-time education or training who are workless (disadvantage gap)
DWP
5. Further Education
Percentage achieving a level 3 qualification by age 19 (FSM gap)
DfE
6. Higher Education
Progression of pupils aged 15 to HE at age 19 (FSM gap)
BIS
Progression of pupils to the 33% most selective HE institutions (state/independent school gap)
BIS
Destinations from higher education (disadvantage gap)
BIS
Access to the professions (disadvantage gap)
BIS/DWP
Progression in the labour market (wage progression)
BIS/DWP
Second chances in the labour market (post-19 basic skills)
BIS/DWP
3. School Attainment
7. Social Mobility in
Adulthood
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Achievement at age 11 – progress
% with Level 4 English & Maths, Key Stage 2, by FSM/non-FSM
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From top schools to top colleges
% progressing to one of top third most selective universities, by school type
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College Works
% graduates in full-time ‘graduate job’ + 6 months by social
background -earning parent).
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How good are the indicators?
Paul Gregg & Lindsay Macmillian, ESRC, Britain in 2012
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Mobility: A Policy Architecture
Commitment to Goal
Definition & Measurement
Institutional Accountability
Executive Sponsorship
* High-level, clear commitment to mobility as target ie. “improving social
mobility is the principal goal of the Government’s social policy”
• Clarity on definition: ie. Intergenerational, relative mobility by income and
occupation
• Support for data to measure long-term trends: Government support for the
2012 birth cohort study (following Millenium Cohort Study of 2000)
• Seven ‘leading indicators’ of mobility & sub-indicators, published annually
• Creation of statutory, independent Commission on Social Mobility & Child
Poverty, reporting annually to Parliament “on the progress being made by
government and wider society in improving social mobility…”
• Commission undertaking issue-specific reports (ie. HE access, professions)
• Chaired by senior Labour figure (Alan Milburn, ex-Cabinet Minister)
• Standing Ministerial Group on Social Mobility, Chaired by DPM
•‘Social Mobility’ test on all new policies or policy changes
•APPG on Social Mobility, All-Party
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The US Challenge: ‘Schools Smarts’
Cognitive Gaps Open Up Early…
Halle et al, Child
Trends, 2009
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‘Schools Smarts’
Richer kids do well on tests…
Proportion In Top Third of Ability
Above Average Test Scores, by Income Quintile
70%
Age 3/4 PPVT
(CNLSY)
60%
50%
40%
Age 13/14 PIAT
(CNLSY)
30%
20%
Age 15-18 AFQT
(NSLY79)
10%
0%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Family Income Quintile Around Time of Test
Q5
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‘Schools Smarts’
…while poor kids struggle
Proportion in Bottom Third of Ability
Below Average Test Scores, by Income Quintile
70%
Age 3/4 PPVT
(CNLSY)
60%
50%
40%
Age 13/14 PIAT
(CNLSY)
30%
20%
Age 15-18 AFQT
(NSLY79)
10%
0%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
Family Income Quintile Around Time of Test
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Higher Education
Mobility Rates by College Degree
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Higher Education
Fraction of students completing college, projected
0.60
1961-1964 birth cohorts
0.50
1979-1982 birth cohorts
1961-1964 OLS projection
0.44
1979-1982 OLS projection
0.40
0.32
0.30
0.21
0.24
0.20
0.09
0.17
0.10
0.14
0.05
0.00
Lowest Quartile
2nd Quartile
3rd Quartile
Highest Quartile
Source: Author’s tabulations and Martha J. Bailey and Susan M. Dynarski, “Inequality in Postsecondary Education,” in Whither Opportunity? Rising Inequality, Schools, and Children’s Life Chances, edited by
Greg Duncan and Richard Murnane (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2011), p. 117-132.
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Higher Education
Fraction of students completing college, actual
0.60
1961-1964 birth cohorts
0.50
0.54
1979-1982 birth cohorts
1961-1964 OLS projection
0.44
1979-1982 OLS projection
0.40
0.32
0.36
0.30
0.21
0.24
0.20
0.09
0.17
0.10
0.14
0.05
0.00
Lowest Quartile
2nd Quartile
3rd Quartile
Highest Quartile
Source: Author’s tabulations and Martha J. Bailey and Susan M. Dynarski, “Inequality in Postsecondary Education,” in Whither Opportunity? Rising Inequality, Schools, and Children’s Life Chances, edited by
Greg Duncan and Richard Murnane (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 2011), p. 117-132.
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The O’Keefe Approach
• Select
• Simplify
• Amplify
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So What?
Equal opportunity part of America’s DNA
Falling a long way short
Capturing right long-term measures (RIGISM)
Finding and projecting ‘leading indicators’ of
success
• Good data, well presented, can change the
debate
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@richardvreeves