Beta or…. “What Is Beta and How Is It Calculated?” Beta A “coefficient measuring a stock’s relative volatility” Beta measures a stock’s sensitivity to overall market movements Source:UBS Warburg Dictionary of Finance and Investment Terms In practice, Beta is measured by comparing changes in a stock price to changes in the value of the S&P 500 index over a given time period The S&P 500 index has a beta of 1 A Generic Example Stock XYZ has a beta of 2 The S&P 500 index increases in value by 10% The price of XYZ is expected to increase 20% over the same time period Beta can be Negative Stock XYZ has a beta of –2 The S&P 500 index INCREASES in value by 10% The price of XYZ is expected to DECREASE 20% over the same time period If the beta of XYZ is 1.5 … And the S&P increases in value by 10% The price of XYZ is expected to increase 15% A beta of 0 indicates that changes in the market index cannot be used to predict changes in the price of the stock The company’s stock price has no correlation to movments in the market index Company Beta AMGN BRK.B C XOM MSFT MWD NOK PXLW TXN VIA.B 0.82 0.73 1.37 0.10 1.80 2.19 2.05 1.93 1.70 1.39 Source: taken from yahoo.finance.com, except PXLW from Beta and Risk Beta is a measure of volatility Volatility is associated with risk Risk-Reward Curve Risk Expected Return If beta is a measure of risk, then investors who hold stocks with higher betas should expect a higher return for taking on that risk What does this remind you of? Beta and CAPM The capital asset pricing model: E(R) = Rf + B(Rm-Rf) where: E(R) = Expected return Rf = risk free rate of return B = beta Rm = market return WACC Weighted average cost of capital: WACC = (D/V)*Rd*(1-T) + (E/V)*Re where: D = market value of firm’s debt Rd = return on debt securities T = tax rate E = market value of firm’s equity securities Re = return on equity securities (from CAPM) V = total value of firm’s securities (D + V) WACC and Beta WACC increases as the beta and the rate of return on the equity securities increases (all else constant) WACC is used as the discount rate in DCF models Therefore, increasing WACC reduces the firms valuation to reflect the increase in risk How to Calculate Beta Beta = Covariance(stock price, market index) Variance(market index) **When calculating, you must compare the percent change in the stock price to the percent change in the market index** How to Calculate Beta Easily calculated using Excel and Yahoo! Finance Use COVAR and VARP worksheet functions An example: Calculate the beta of Citigroup stock over the 5-yr time period from Jan. 1, 1997 – Dec. 31, 2001 S&P 500 Adjusted Daily Closing Values: January 1, 1997 December 31, 1997 Citigroup Adjusted Daily Closing Prices: January 1, 1997 December 31, 1997