Non-State Actors
State-Centric Analysis
Team Sub-Saharan Africa
Mercyhurst Institute For
Intelligence Studies
Indexes
•
Ease Of Doing Business
–
•
Transparency Index
–
•
World Economic Forum
Economic Freedom
–
•
Global Peace Index
• (The Economist Intelligence Unit, Peace Institutes and Think Tanks, Centre for Peace and Conflict
Studies, University of Sydney, Australia)
Global Information Technology
–
•
Freedom House
Global Peace
–
•
Freedom House
Civil Liberties Score
–
•
Reporters Without Borders
Civil Rights Score
–
•
United Nations Development Progamme
Freedom of the Press Index
–
•
Transparency International
Human Development Index
–
•
World Bank
Heritage Foundation and Wall Street Journal
Democracy Index
–
Economist
Scales
• Indexes are converted to
percentile coefficients
• Analysis uses 1-5 scale
• Scores can be rounded to .5
depending on the level of
accuracy of compared entities
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
.5
Ease Of Doing Business
World Bank
"A high ranking on the ease of doing
business index means the regulatory
environment is conducive to the
operation of business."
Highly Conducive to business
minded NSAs
1%
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
Percentile
2
Inhospitable to business
minded NSAs. Low scores
often provide the advantage
foreign state actors
1.5
1
.5
99%
Transparency Index
Transparency International
Countries with a high ranking indicates that criminal or
unethical NSA's are likely to have greater influence in a
country, and it would be unlikely that smaller businesses,
NGO's and ethical NSA's would have influence.
Conducive to NSA activity.
NSAs have access more
predictable markets/venues,
which require smaller
investment to establish
operations.
Inhospitable to NSAs lacking
connections to influential
powers or the capital to
influence them. Low scores
often provide the advantage
foreign state actors with few
ethical regulations
1%
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
Percentile
2
1.5
1
.5
99%
Human Development Index
United Nations Development Programme
A country with a low ranking is unlikely to require many social, health and
cultural oriented NGOs and NSAs, and a country with a high ranking is highly
likely to have many social, health and cultural oriented NGOs. Lower scores also
indicate a higher need for basic services with lower profit margins, such
countries present inadequate consumer markets and inadequate infrastructure
for many industries.
99%
5
Demonstrates a greater
immediate need for
philanthropic NGOs.
4.5
4
3.5
3
Demonstrates a lower
need for philanthropic
NGOs. Higher demand
for modern industry
(including luxury items
and technology).
2.5
Percentile
2
1.5
1
.5
1%
Freedom of the Press Index
Reporters Without Borders
The media, as an NSA, is highly likely to have greater influence on a country
with less restrictions on freedom of the press, except where the media is state
controlled. Greater press freedom is also more likely to increase the numbers of
different forms of media, which also increases the number of NSAs. Freer
press also indicates more exposure to social humanitarian issues, which
enhances NGOs abilities to raise funds.
More Freedom of the Press:
•More public exposure of social/
humanitarian issues
Wild Card Nuance: Media (press) often plays a
huge role in insurgent activities. Regardless of the
freedom of press allowed, media is often highly
influential in insurgencies even when media
channels must be clandestine or originate from
another country’s soil. In insurgency struggles this
index is a poor indicator of the role of media.
Less Freedom of the Press
1%
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
Percentile
2
1.5
1
.5
99%
Civil Rights & Liberty
Scores
Freedom House
Countries with lower scores in the two categories are likely to interact with
NSAs that have a larger role and more influence in a state. Countries with
higher scores that are partly free or not free are likely to have fewer NSAs,
with decreasing influence.
1
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
Score
2.5
2
1.5
1
.5
7
Fewer NSAs and
Less Influence
!!CHECK!!
Dispute
Resolution
Required
More NSAs and
Greater Influence
1
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
Score
2
1.5
1
.5
7
Global Peace Index
(The Economist Intelligence Unit, Peace Institutes and Think Tanks,
Centre for Peace and Conflict Studies, University of Sydney, Australia)
Countries with lower rankings (1,2,3 etc) are more likely to have peaceful
NSA's that contribute peacefully to the economy, culture, and politics.
Countries with high rankings are more likely to have violent NSAs, such as
terrorist groups, paramilitary groups, and criminal organizations.
Indicates the pervading
presence of violent nonState Actors
99%
5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
Percentile
2
1.5
Indicates few violent nonstate actors
1
.5
1%
Global Info Tech Index
The World Economic Forum
Outsourcing technology in reshaping the economic landscape of the planet.
Information technology not only increasing the potential for firms to open new
outsourcing industries, but also increases the populace’s exposure to foreign
media, foreign ideologies, allows them to network with like-interested groups,
etc. The information technology index has so many implications that it should
be considered in specific contexts.
1%
5
4.5
More Info Tech
Analysis must not only determine the
implications of Info Tech to NSAs, but
also if and how they are using them.
Forecasting the progress of info tech is
paramount to determining future trends in
the role of NSAs.
4
3.5
3
2.5
Percentile
2
1.5
Less Info Tech
1
.5
99%
Economic Freedom Index
Heritage Foundation and Wall Street Journal
A free economy makes it highly likely for NSA (particularly business) to have a
greater role and influence in society. This means more influence, and greater
numbers of NSA. Countries with little or no economic freedom will mean less
NSA's, and more power and influence in the hands of a few NSA (like ethnic
groups).
1%
5
More Economic Freedom
4.5
indicates more investment
4
opportunities for NSAs and
3.5
security for those investiments
3
Percentile
2.5
Less economic freedoms restricts
NSAs from owning property or industry
2
and provides little security for invested
1.5
capital. Low econimc freedoms favors
1
more powerful and capital rich foreign
state actors
.5
99%
Democracy Index
The Economist
Free countries are likely have more and varied NSAs, which will hold greater
influence. Repressive countries will have fewer NSAs, which will have
disproportionate influence in the state. Low scoring countries have less political
participation outside the ranks of the ruling regime. Additionally lower scores likely
indicate that NSAs will be held to lower standards of conduct. Furthermore,
democratic leaders are more accountable to the people and are likely to facilitate
the role of NGOs in dealing with social problems.
1%
5
Higher values of the Dem.
Index indicates that NSAs
willing have more opportunities
to influence politics in the
country.
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
Lower values of the Dem.
Index indicates NSAs will have
fewer and less effective
venues to influence politics in
the country.
Percentile
2
1.5
1
.5
99%
Business NSAs
•
Business NSA’s role coefficient is calculated by averaging the scores the
following indexes:
–
–
–
•
Ease of Doing Business Index
Economic Freedom Index
Human Development Index (inverted)
Business NSA’s “quality” scores will be determined by the separate
consideration of the following indexes:
–
–
–
Transparency Index
Global Information Technology Index
Democracy Index
Ease of Doing
Business= .85
5
Zimbabwe
Biz NSA coef
5
1%
4
4
3
3
3
Percentile
2
1
Percentile
1
0 (98%)
99%
Zimbabwe:
Transparency= .84
Zimbabwe
Quality
Dimensions
5
1%
4
2
1 (85%)
Human
Development
(inverted) = .88
Economic
Freedom: .98
High Corruption,
Biz NSAs must
engage in practices
which appease
regime
5
4
3
2
1 (84%)
1%
Percentile
99%
1%
Percentile
2
.5 (88%)
5
1
Zimbabwe
Biz NSA coef = .5
(1+0+.5)/3= .5
1
99%
Global Info
Tech= .97
Limited infrastructure/
4
opportunity for IT.
Extractive resources
3
dominate
2
Higher scores
indicate more Biz
NSA activity
Democracy= .88
5
1%
Percentile
Little
accountability to
populace
99%
3
2
1
0 (97%)
1%
4
Percentile
1
99%
.5 (88%)
99%
Philanthropic NSAs
(Charitable NGOs)
•
Philanthropic NSA’s role coefficient is calculated by averaging the scores
the following indexes:
–
–
–
•
Human Development Index
Democracy Index
Freedom of the Press
Philanthropic NSA’s “quality” scores will be determined by the separate
consideration of the following indexes:
–
–
Transparency Index
Civil Rights and Liberties Score
Democracy
Index: .88
Human
Development= .88
Zimbabwe
Phil NSA coef
5
4.5 (88%)
5
99%
4
2
2
3
Percentile
2
1 (83%)
1
.5 (88%)
1%
Zimbabwe:
Transparency= .84
NSAs must deal
with a plethora of
corrupt actors to
facilitate their work
5
99%
5
4
3
Percentile
Civil Liberties Score= 7
Civil Rights Score= 6
1
Score
1
Percentile
Zimbabwe
Phil NSA coef = .5
(4.5+.5+1)/3= 2
1
99%
4
2
1 (84%)
1%
1%
4
3
Percentile
1
Zimbabwe
Quality
Dimensions
5
1%
4
3
Higher scores
indicate more Phil
NSA activity
Press Freedom= .88
NGO pop. are more likely to
include political activist
organizations
7
1
4
3
3
2
2
1
99%
5
Score
1
.5 (6)
0 (7)
7
Armed NSAs
•
Armed NSA’s role coefficient is calculated by averaging the scores the
following indexes:
–
–
–
•
Global Peace Index
Transparency Index
Human Development Index (inverted)
Business NSA’s “quality” scores will be determined by the separate
consideration of the following indexes:
–
–
–
Democracy Index
Economic Freedom Index
Global Information Technology Index
Global Peace= .88
Zimbabwe
Biz NSA coef
5
Transparency: .84
5
1%
4
4
3
3
3
Percentile
2
1
1 (84%)
.5 (88%)
Zimbabwe
Quality
Dimensions
5
1%
4
2
Zimbabwe:
Human
Development
(inverted) = .88
99%
1
1%
Percentile
Economic
Freedom = .98
Armed NSA’s behavior 5
is more likely to be
4
characterized by
3
control of resources
2
1
.5 (88%)
1%
1%
1
99%
Civil Rights Score= 6
1
Score
1
99%
0 (98%)
Civil Liberties Score= 7
3
Armed NSAs are
5
more likely to be
4
motivated by
political activitism 3
2
2
5
4
Percentile
Zimbabwe
Biz NSA coef = .5
(.5+1+.5)/3= .666
Percentile
2
.5 (88%)
99%
Democracy= .88
5
Armed NSAs are more
likely to use separatist 4
and insurgency
3
strategies
2
Percentile
Lower scores
indicate more
Armed NSA activity
7
Score
1
1
99%
1
.5 (6)
0 (7)
7