Twitter: The mental state of humankind
Daniel Allen
COMP 2903 X1
Fall 2010
Overview
• What is Twitter?
• Twitter mood predicts the stock market
• Why is this important?
• Conclusions
What is Twitter?
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What is Twitter?
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iver breaking news stories
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Tweets are...
«Twitter mood predicts the stock market»
«Twitter Mood predicts the stock market»
arXiv physics blog
A publication of the MIT Technology Review
Study conducted by researchers Johan Bollen, Huina Mao, and Xiao-Jun Zeng
Analyzed 9.7 million tweets by 2.7 million
tweeters, collected from 2008
Attempt to correlate between Twitter moods and
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA)
Challenges lie in separating the noise from the useful
«Twitter Mood predicts the stock market»
Google-Profile-of-MoodStates (GPOMS):
Algorithm to analyze words and index them based
on six different mood states - happiness,
kindness, alertness, sureness, vitality and
calmness
«Twitter Mood predicts the stock market»
Found correlation between DJIA and calmness
Accuracy of 87.6% in
predicting up and down
changes in closing
values between 2 and 6
days later
«Twitter Mood predicts the stock market»
Mirrors a similar study conducted in April, predicting box office
earnings by analyzing film tweets
Two main criticisms leveled at the work:
Lack of plausible mechanism - no-one can explain precisely
how or why the calmness index is related to the DJIA
Twitter feeds used came from global sources - can tweeters in
Timbuktu really affect the American stock market?
«Twitter Mood predicts the stock market»
Research reveals a number of similar projects:
Microsoft QuickView:
Semantic search of tweets
Microsoft Natural Language Computing Group
Microsoft Research Asia
Project Emporia:
News-recommender system
Microsoft Research Cambridge and FUSE Labs UK
Twecan.com:
Sentiment Analysis of Tweets
Halifax, NS
Why is this important?
Could see a transition from search engines to discovery engines,
changing the way we search online
Massive boon for marketers - tweet feeds described as «the
mental state of humankind»
No longer will you ask machines for search results - you’ll ask
humanity
Trending topics may drive decisions - but what will drive trends?
Conclusion
• Twitter feeds can be used to keep a finger on the public pulse
• May be used to find predictors for even the most variable systems
• Lots of research on how to harness this massive volume of data
• Technologies coming out of these projects may change how we
search, decide and market
FIN
References
• ArXiv.org. Cornell University Library. Web. 26 Oct. 2010. <http://arxiv.org/>.
• Bollen, Johan, Huina Mao, and Xiao-Jun Zeng. "Twitter Mood Predicts the Stock Market." Diss. Indiana University, 2010. Abstract.
ArXiv.org. Cornell University Library, 14 Oct. 2010. Web. 26 Oct. 2010. <http://arxiv.org/abs/1010.3003>.
• Bollen, Johan. "Past Events - Complex Networks: Determining the Public Mood State by Analysis of Microblogging Posts." ISI
Foundation. Institute for Scientific Exchange Foundation, 6 July 2010. Web. 26 Oct. 2010.
<http://www.isi.it/main.php?liv1=news&liv2=past&news=FYZKLDDGUP7LAEEE3V8YDHK9HGUY56BK>.
• D'Monte, Leslie. "Swine Flu's Tweet Tweet Causes Online Flutter." Business Standard. 29 Apr. 2009. Web. 26 Oct. 2010.
<http://www.business-standard.com/india/news/swine-flu/s-tweet-tweet-causes-online-flutter/356604>.
• Knies, Rob. "Innovation Day: Past, Present, Future - Microsoft Research." Microsoft Research - Turning Ideas into Reality.
Microsoft Corporation, 25 Oct. 2010. Web. 26 Oct. 2010. <http://research.microsoft.com/en-us/news/features/innovationday2010102510.aspx>.
• Sarno, David. "Twitter Creator Jack Dorsey Illuminates the Site's Founding Document. Part I | Technology | Los Angeles Times."
Top of the Ticket | Election Day Is One Week Away: Here's Your Voter Guide | Los Angeles Times. 18 Feb. 2010. Web. 26 Oct.
2010. <http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2009/02/twitter-creator.html>.
• "Technology Review: Blogs: ArXiv Blog: Twitter Mood Predicts The Stock Market." Technology Review: The Authority on the Future
of Technology. 18 Oct. 2010. Web. 26 Oct. 2010. <http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/25900/>.
• "Technology Review: Blogs: ArXiv Blog: Twitter Used to Predict Box Office Revenues." Technology Review: The Authority on the
Future of Technology. 1 Apr. 2010. Web. 26 Oct. 2010. <http://www.technologyreview.com/blog/arxiv/25000/>.
• Twitter Inc. "About Twitter." Twitter. 2010. Web. 26 Oct. 2010. <http://twitter.com/about/>.