“Local Elections, Long-Term Effects?
The Hong Kong District Council
Elections of 2011” – Survey Results
Presentation
Professor Michael DeGolyer
Director of Hong Kong Transition Project
Professor of Government and International Studies ,
Hong Kong Baptist University of Hong Kong
Professor Lo Shiu Hing
Associate Dean (Research and Postgraduate Studies) of Faculty of Arts and Sciences ,
Hong Kong Institute of Education
Total Number of Candidates
Party
No. of Candidates
Predicted Gains
(Including
Candidates of
Uncontested
Constituencies)
Percentage of
winning
DAB/FTU
237
97
40.93%
Democratic Party
132
81
64.39%
Civic Party
41
19
46.34%
Liberal Party
24
4
16.67%
People Power
59
3
5.08%
League of Social
Democrats
28
7
25%
New People’s Party
12
3
25%
ADPL
26
17
65.38%
Civic Force
21
14
66.67%
Total Number of Candidates
Party
No. of Candidate
Predicted Gains
(Excluding
Candidates of
Uncontested
Constituencies)
Percentage of
winning
DAB/FTU
237
50
23.63%
Democratic Party
132
80
60.60%
Civic Party
41
19
46.34%
Liberal Party
24
1
4.17%
People Power
59
3
5.08%
League of Social
Democrats
28
7
25%
New People’s Party
12
3
25%
ADPL
26
17
65.38%
Civic Force
21
11
52.38%
Conclusion
• The overall estimated number of elected and
automatically elected candidates of the
DAB/FTU will be 97-107.
• If the Civic Force (predicted gain 14) is
included as DAB’s peripheral organization,
then DAB/FTU/CF gains will be 111-121.
• The overall estimated number of elected and
automatically elected candidates of the DP
will be 71-81.
Conclusion
• Please note that there are lots of
independent candidates, who are divided
into three groups: pro-Beijing ones (Civic
Force), pro-democracy (Neodemocrats, Land
Justice League, Shun Chau Youth Service
Center, Power for Democracy).
• Their role will be important after the
elections as they will be the target of
cooptation by the government and Beijing.
Conclusion
• The voter turnout will not be high as the
government has not made extra efforts at
promoting the elections through the
reinjection of election forums (which are held
by district groups, RTHK and Cable TV).
• The lack of election forums makes citizens
difficult to understand the platform of
candidates easily and comprehensively. This
issue should be tackled in the future.
Conclusion
• Candidates’ profile should be improved on
the website of the 2011 District Councils
elections, because a few candidates do not
indicate their age (perhaps a privacy issue to
a few of them).
• Ideally, candidates’ leaflets should be more
accessible to the public through the website
of the District Councils elections.
• Overall, more work will have to be done to
increase citizen interest and participation.
Conclusion
• For the first time in Hong Kong`s District
Council elections, the Power for Democracy
nominates some candidates -- a deliberate
strategy on the part of the pan-democrats to
nominate inexperienced/young candidates to
stop pro-Beijing candidates from easy victory
• Many candidates are young, including those
affiliated with political parties. This signals a
generational change in party growth and
electoral participation – a healthy sign