Name: ______________________________________________
Battleground State Projections
Research, Presentation, and Writing Project
ECE American Politics ‖ Fall 2012
Mr. Taylor
Overview & Task
With only 22 days until the presidential election, the race is a statistical tie. According to the latest poll of polls,
which averages polling data from major U.S. polling firms, Governor Romney has a slight lead at the national
level, 47.6% to President Obama’s 46.4%. However, as you know, presidential elections are not truly national
affairs. Instead, in order to win, candidates must secure electoral pluralities in just enough states to reach 270
electoral votes. Ultimately, then, the presidential election is much like a chess match, with candidates and their
campaign staffs making strategic choices about how to allocate scarce campaign resources in order to reach 270
electoral votes. At this point in the race, the focus is almost exclusively on so-called “battleground states”,
where neither Governor Romney nor President Obama has taken a clear lead in the polls. These battleground
states, which will be saturated with political advertisements and campaign rallies over the next three weeks, will
ultimately decide the 2012 presidential election.
Working in pairs, each of you will be assigned a battleground state. Through research, you will become an expert
on the presidential race in your assigned state, developing a familiarity with the demographics of the state, the
issues that most affect voters in the state, the candidates’ positions on those issues, and the effectiveness or
ineffectiveness of the campaign waged. Once done, each of you will make a prediction about which candidate is
more likely to win, defending your position through a Prezi presentation and in separate, well-argued papers.
How close will each of your predictions be? Will we have accurately predicted the next president of the United
States? We’ll have to wait until election night to find out.
Sources of Research
To make the most accurate prediction about who will win your assigned battleground state, you will need to
consult a variety of sources. Here is a list of some of those sources:
Background on States & Population Data
 http://www.270towin.com/states/
 http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map
 http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/index.html
Campaign Activities
 Ad spending by state: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/track-presidentialcampaign-ads-2012/
 Campaign stops by state: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-presidentialcampaign-visits/
Candidate’s Position on the Issues
 http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/campaign-issues.html
 http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/2012/0829/Obama-vs.-Romney-101-Where-are-the-sharpestdivides [googling “Obama vs. Romney 101: where are the sharpest” will also get you there]
 The idea Guide to the 2012 U.S. Presidential Debates
Polling Data
 State-level Polls: http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/
 National Polls: Roper Center’s iPOLL (username: hsbulkeley password: bulldogs)
National Media Outlets
 New York Times
 Washington Post
 CNN
 The Economist
 Politico
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2
Real Clear Politics
Huffington Post (liberal)
Talking Points Memo (liberal)
RedState.com (conservative)
The Weekly Standard (conservative)
State Media Outlets
Colorado
 http://www.denverpost.com/
 http://www.gazette.com/
 http://www.coloradoan.com/
 http://www.dailycamera.com/
New Hampshire
 http://www.unionleader.com/
 http://fosters.com/
 http://www.concordmonitor.com/
 http://www.citizen.com/
Florida




http://www.sun-sentinel.com/
http://www.miamiherald.com/
http://www.tampabay.com/
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/
North Carolina
 http://www.charlotteobserver.com/
 http://www.newsobserver.com/
 http://www.starnewsonline.com/
 http://www.gowilkes.com/
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/
http://www.press-citizen.com/
http://thegazette.com/
http://globegazette.com/
Ohio
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Iowa
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Nevada
 http://www.lvrj.com/
 http://www.rgj.com/
 http://www.lasvegassun.com/
 http://www.vegasinc.com/
http://www.cleveland.com/
http://news.cincinnati.com/
http://www.daytondailynews.com/
http://www.dispatch.com/
Virginia
 http://hamptonroads.com/
 http://www2.timesdispatch.com/
 http://www.roanoke.com/
 http://www.dailypress.com/
Research Paper Expectations
You will use this standardized format for both this research paper and for your Capstone project. Use this
checklist to make sure that your paper follows the standardized format:
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3-4 pages in length (not including works cited page)
Minimum of 7 sources
12 pt font, Times New Roman
1 inch margins
Double-spaced
In-text parenthetical citations
o Book (author’s last name, page number)
o Internet (Title of Website)
First page header with the following in the upper left-hand corner: name, teacher’s name, the course, and
the date
Header with last name and page number in upper right-hand corner
Centered title
Works Cited (MLA Format)
For assistance in creating a works cited page using MLA format, consult www.easybib.com
3
Prezi Presentation Expectations
Your Prezi presentation will teach your classmates about the state you researched and will make a prediction
about which candidate is more likely to win: President Barack Obama or Governor Mitt Romney. The
presentation, which will be created and delivered with your partner, should be 4-6 minutes long and include the
following:
 Introduction: An introduction to your state, which includes answers to questions 1-4, as well as any other
relevant information;
 Campaign activities in the state: A description of major campaign activities/spending in the state,
including answers to questions 5-6;
 Thesis/Prediction: Who you believe will win the state (if you cannot agree on who will win, divide your
presentation in half; the first half can be why one candidate will win, the second half why the other
candidate will win); and
 Evidence supporting your prediction: Provide support for your prediction, using answers to questions 712 to support your conclusion.
Your Prezi must be completed in its entirety BEFORE arriving to class on Friday, November 2. However, you will
be given the first 20 minutes of class to prepare/finalize any note cards with your partner, if necessary.
Exemplary (4)
Introduction
Thesis/
Prediction
Organization
Eye Contact
Poise
Questions
Limited (2)
Deficient (1)
Group begins their
presentation with a
focused and engaging
introduction to their state
Group begins their
presentation with a clear
introduction to their state
Acceptable (3)
Group begins their
presentation with a vague
introduction to their state
Group does not begin their
presentation with an
introduction to their state
Group’s thesis/prediction is
well supported by the
content of the
presentation
Group’s thesis/prediction is
adequately supported by
the content of the
presentation
Group’s thesis/prediction is
minimally supported by the
content of the
presentation
Group’s thesis/prediction
either does not exist or is
not at all supported by the
content of the
presentation
Information is
exceptionally well
sequenced and easy to
follow
Information is adequately
sequenced and generally
easy to follow
Information is minimally
sequenced and difficult to
follow
Information is poorly
sequenced and
exceedingly difficult to
follow
Maintains eye contact all of
the time
Maintains eye contact
most of the time
Maintains eye contact
some of the time
Does not maintain eye
contact
Speaks with suitable pace
and clarity all of the time,
almost never using verbal
fillers
Speaks with suitable pace
and clarity most of the
time, only occasionally
using verbal fillers
Speaks with suitable pace
and clarity some of the
time, often using verbal
fillers
Fails to speak with suitable
pace and clarity,
consistently using verbal
fillers
Demonstrates extensive
knowledge of the topic in
response to audience
questions
Demonstrates acceptable
knowledge of the topic in
response to audience
questions
Demonstrates limited
knowledge of the topic in
response to audience
questions
Demonstrates inadequate
and/or flawed knowledge
of the topic in response to
audience questions
TOTAL
4
/24
Battleground State Assignments
Battleground State
Teams
Colorado
Jason & Anthony
Florida
Moira & Edinson
Iowa
Aurivellise & Eric
Nevada
Olivia & Devin
New Hampshire
Sehrija, Michael A. &
Michael H.
North Carolina
Maman & Kyle
Ohio
Ronald & Cheziray
Virginia
Jamel & Jehroam
Partner’s Email Address
Questions to Help Focus Your Research
(1) Who lives in your state? What is its demographic profile?
(2) Does that demographic profile tend to help one candidate over another? If so, which one and why?
(3) Who won the state in the 2008 presidential election? How about 2004?
(4) Who currently has a lead in the polls in your state? What has been the trend in those polls for your state?
(5) How much campaign money has been spent in the state?
(6) How many campaign rallies/stump speeches have been held in the state? What issues have been addressed in
those rallies/stump speeches, and how has the media treated those rallies?
(7) What issues is your state facing?
(8) What are the candidates’ positions on these issues?
(9) According to national polling data, which candidate has a stronger position on each of those issues? (Use
iPOLL through the Roper Center to help find survey research on this question.)
(10) Have any major local media outlets in your state endorsed (supported) a particular candidate? If so, which
candidate and for what reasons?
(11) What stories about the presidential elections are being written in your state? Does the coverage seem to
favor one candidate over another?
(12) How has the national media been covering your state? Are there any articles by the national media that add
insight into how your state might vote?
5
Sample MLA First Page
6
The Works Cited Page
Book
Author’s last name, Author’s first name. Title of Book. City of Publication: Publisher, Year of Publication.
Web site
Author(s) of internet article. "Name of internet article." Name of website. Editor(s) of website. Date of
electronic publication. Associated institution. Date you looked at the website <URL>.
Guidelines
 List should be in alphabetical order.
 If the citation is longer than one line, the second (and third) lines should be indented.
 Some websites do not show all the information, like the publisher or the date published, but put in as
much information as possible.
 The website www.easybib.com will create citations for you!
Sample MLA Works Cited Page
Smith 7
Works Cited
Brisk, María Estela. Bilingual Education: From Compensatory to Quality
Schooling. Mahwah, NJ: L. Erlbaum Associates, 2006.
Mack, Pamela E. "The Invention of Radio." The Invention of Radio. Clemson
University, 28 Oct. 2005. Web. 12 Sept. 2012.
<http://www.clemson.edu/caah/history/facultypages/pammack/lec122/radio.
htm>.
7
Sample of Source Card and Note Card
Sample Source Card
Checkpoint 2: You will turn in at least 5 source cards. The sample below is for a website. Gather as
many useful sources as possible.
Source # 2
Title
“Jackie Changed Face of Sports”
Larry Schwartz
Author(s)
2007
Date Published
Name of
Webpage/
Publisher
URL (web address)
ESPN.com
http://espn.go.com/sportscentury/features/00016431.html
June 14, 2012
Date Accessed
Sample Note Card
Checkpoint 3: For each note card, pick ONE piece of useful information (which may be multiple
sentences) and copy it down exactly as it appears. You will need to use at least 20 note cards in your
research.
After you have at least the required
number of note cards, you will
separate them into subtopics; write the
topic heading here.
Struggles Faced
Write the source
number here.
2
Robinson learned how to exercise selfcontrol – to answer insults, violence and
injustice with silence. A model of unselfish
team play, he earned the respect of his
teammates and, eventually, the opposition.
8
Write your notes
here
remembering to
copy them down
exactly as they
appear in the
source.
9
Note Cards all labeled #2
Struggles Faced
2
Write your notes here remembering to copy them
down exactly as they appear in the source.
You need a total of 20!
(as many as you need
from each source)
Robinson learned how to exercise selfcontrol – to answer insults, violence and
injustice with silence. A model of unselfish
team play, he earned the respect of his Struggles Faced
2
teammates and, eventually, the opposition.
Write your notes here remembering to copy them
down exactly as they appear in the source.
Website #2
(source2)
2
Source Card #2
Source # 2
Title
Author(s)
Date Published
Name of Webpage/
Publisher
URL (web address)
Date Accessed
You need a
minimum of
5 sources!
Robinson learned how to exercise selfcontrol – to answer insults, violence and
injustice with silence. A model of unselfish
team play, he earned the respect of his
Struggles
Faced
2
teammates and, eventually,
the opposition.
Write your notes here remembering to copy them
down exactly as they appear in the source.
“Jackie Changed Face of Sports”
Larry Schwartz
2007
ESPN.com
http://espn.go.com/sportscentury/feature
s/00016431.html
June 14, 2012
Robinson learned how to exercise selfcontrol – to answer insults, violence and
injustice with silence. A model of unselfish
team play, he earned the respect of his
teammates and, eventually, the opposition.
Struggles Faced
2
Write your notes here remembering to copy them
down exactly as they appear in the source.
Copy word-byword interesting
& useful paragraphs
You need a
minimum of
5 source cards!
Robinson learned how to exercise selfcontrol – to answer insults, violence and
injustice with silence. A model of unselfish
team play, he earned the respect of his
Struggles Faced
2
teammates and, eventually, the opposition.
Write your notes here remembering to copy them
down exactly as they appear in the source.
Robinson learned how to exercise selfcontrol – to answer insults, violence and
injustice with silence. A model of unselfish
team play, he earned the respect of his
teammates and, eventually, the opposition.
Struggles Faced
2
Write your notes here remembering to copy them
down exactly as they appear in the source.
Robinson learned how to exercise selfcontrol – to answer insults, violence and
injustice with silence. A model of unselfish
Struggles Faced
2
team play, he earned the respect of his
Write your notes here remembering to copy them
teammates and, eventually, the opposition.
down exactly as they appear in the source.
Robinson learned how to exercise selfcontrol – to answer insults, violence and
injustice with silence. A model of unselfish
team play, he earned the respect of his
teammates and, eventually, the opposition.
10
Research Paper Rubric
Criteria
Purpose
Content
Organization
Feel
Tone
Sentence
Structure
Exemplary (4)
The writer's central purpose
or argument is readily
apparent to the reader.
Balanced presentation of
relevant and legitimate
information that clearly
supports a central purpose or
argument and shows a
thoughtful, in-depth analysis
of a significant topic. Reader
gains important insights.
The ideas are arranged
logically to support the
purpose or argument. They
flow smoothly from one to
another and are clearly linked
to each other.
The reader can follow the
line of reasoning.
The writing is compelling.
It hooks the reader and
sustains interest throughout.
The tone is consistently
professional and appropriate
for an academic research
paper.
Sentences are well-phrased
and varied in length and
structure. They flow smoothly
from one to another.
Acceptable (3)
The writing has a clear
purpose or argument, but may
sometimes digress from it.
Information provides
reasonable support for a
central purpose or argument
and displays evidence of a
basic analysis of a significant
topic. Reader gains some
insights.
Limited (2)
The central purpose or
argument is not consistently
clear throughout the paper.
Information supports a
central purpose or argument
at times. Analysis is basic
or general. Reader gains
few insights.
Deficient (1)
The purpose or argument is
generally unclear.
The ideas are arranged
logically to support the central
purpose or argument. They
are usually
clearly linked to each other.
For the most part, the reader
can follow the line of
reasoning.
The writing is generally
engaging, but has some dry
spots. In general, it is focused
and keeps the reader's
attention.
The tone is generally
professional. For the most
part, it is appropriate for an
academic research paper.
Sentences are well-phrased
and there is some variety in
length and structure. The
flow from sentence to
sentence is generally smooth.
In general, the writing is
arranged logically, although
occasionally ideas fail to
make sense together. The
reader is fairly clear about
what writer intends.
The writing is not logically
organized. Frequently, ideas
fail to make sense together.
The reader cannot identify a
line of reasoning and loses
interest.
The writing is dull and not
engaging. Though the paper
has some interesting parts,
the reader finds it difficult to
maintain interest.
The tone is not consistently
professional or appropriate
for an academic research
paper.
Some sentences are
awkwardly constructed so
that the reader is occasionally
distracted.
The writing has little
personality. The reader
quickly loses interest and stops
reading.
11
Central purpose or argument is
not clearly identified.
Analysis is vague or not
evident. Reader is confused or
may be misinformed.
The tone is unprofessional. It
is not appropriate for an
academic research paper.
Errors in sentence structure are
frequent enough to be a major
distraction to the reader.
Criteria
Word Choice
Grammar,
Spelling,
Writing,
Mechanics
Length
Use of
References
Exemplary (4)
Word choice is
consistently precise and
accurate.
The writing is free or
almost free of errors.
Paper is the number of
pages specified in the
assignment.
Compelling evidence from
professionally legitimate
sources is given to support
claims. Attribution is clear
and fairly represented.
Quality of
References
References are primarily peerreviewed professional journals
or other approved sources
(e.g., government documents,
agency manuals, etc.). The
reader is confident that the
information and ideas can be
trusted.
Use of Modern
Language
Association
(MLA) citation
style
MLA format is used
accurately and consistently in
the paper and on the "Works
Cited" page.
Acceptable (3)
Word choice is generally
good. The writer often goes
beyond the generic word to
find one more precise and
effective.
There are occasional errors,
but they don't represent a
major distraction or
obscure meaning.
Limited (2)
Word choice is merely
adequate, and the range of
words is limited. Some words
are used inappropriately.
Deficient (1)
Many words are used
inappropriately, confusing the
reader.
The writing has many errors,
and the reader is distracted by
them.
Professionally legitimate
sources that support claims
are generally present and
attribution is, for the most
part, clear and fairly
represented.
Although most of the
references are professionally
legitimate, a few are
questionable (e.g., trade books,
internet sources, popular
magazines, …).
The
reader is uncertain of the
reliability of some of the
sources.
MLA format is used with
minor errors.
Although attributions are
occasionally given, many
statements seem
unsubstantiated. The reader is
confused about the source of
information and ideas.
Most of the references are
from sources that are not
peer- reviewed and have
uncertain reliability. The
reader doubts the accuracy of
much of the material
presented.
There are so many errors that
meaning is obscured. The
reader is confused and stops
reading.
Paper has more or fewer pages
than specified in the
assignment.
References are seldom cited to
support statements.
There are frequent errors in
MLA format.
TOTAL SCORE
12
There are virtually no sources
that are professionally reliable.
The reader seriously doubts
the value of the material and
stops reading.
Format of the document is not
recognizable as MLA.
ECE American Politics Research Paper Calendar
October 15 – November 2
Monday
15 B
Tuesday
16 A
Wednesday
17 B
OCTOBER
23 B
24 A
25 B
WORK ON SOURCE
CARDS/NOTE
CARDS
First draft due!
30 A
26 A
Outline of Paper
Due
CONFERENCES ON
OUTLINE/BEGIN
WRITING
Turn in at least 7
source cards and
25 note cards
29 B
Friday
19 B
WORK ON SOURCE
CARDS/NOTE
CARDS
SATs/PSATs
NO CLASS
WORK ON SOURCE
CARDS/NOTE
CARDS
22 A
Thursday
18 A
31 B
1A
WORK ON PREZI
2B
Prezi Presentations
in Class
Paper due on
Sunday, Nov. 4 by
midnight!
13