Distr.
LIMITED
CS/CMI/FSDSSC/X
September, 2015
Original: ENGLISH
COMMON MARKET FOR EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN AFRICA
Tenth Meeting of the Financial System
Development and Stability Sub-Committee
5th September, 2015
Nairobi, Kenya
REPORT OF THE TENTH MEETING
OF THE COMESA FINANCIAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT
AND STABILITY SUB-COMMITTEE
2015 (IZ/LK/mkc/joo)
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Page 1
A.
INTRODUCTION
1.
The 20th Meeting of the COMESA Committee of Governors of Central Banks which
was held in November 2014 in Kinshasa, Congo(DR) instructed the COMESA Monetary
Institute to undertake the following activities in 2015:
a)
Preparation of a Guideline for appropriate institutional governance framework for
implementation of macro prudential policy in COMESA region
b)
Conduct training on the following:
i)
ii)
2.
Based on the above decisions, the Institute organized
a)
Training on:
i)
ii)
b)
B.
Modelling Volatility in Financial Markets Within a Multivariate Framework;
Financial Stability, Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy;
Modelling Volatility in Financial Markets Within a Multivariate
Framework from 27th July to 07th August, 2015 in Nairobi, Kenya; and
Financial Stability, Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy from 24th
August to 1st September 2015, Nairobi, Kenya
A Validation Workshop of the Guidelines for Institutional Framework for
Implementation of Macroprudential Policy from 2nd to 4th September 2015, in
Nairobi, Kenya.
ATTENDANCE, OPENING OF THE MEETING, ELECTION OF THE BUREAU,
ADOPTION OF THE AGENDA AND ORGANISATION OF WORK
Attendance
3.
The meeting was attended by delegates from Central Banks of Egypt, Kenya,
Madagascar, Malawi, Rwanda, Sudan, Swaziland, Uganda, and Zimbabwe. COMESA
Monetary Institute also attended the meeting.
Opening of the Meeting (Agenda item 1)
4.
The Chairman welcomed the delegates and called the meeting to order.
Election of the Bureau (Agenda item 2)
9.
The following Central Banks were elected as Bureau members:
Chairperson:
Rapporteur:
Kenya
Egypt
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Adoption of the Agenda and Organisation of Work (Agenda item 3)
5.
The meeting adopted the following agenda:
1.
Opening of meeting;
2.
Election of a Bureau;
3.
Adoption of the Agenda and Organization of Work;
4.
Status of Implementations of the Recommendations of the 9th Meeting
of the Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee;
5.
Consideration of the following Reports on:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
C.
Status of Implementation of the Recommendation of the 9th Meeting
of the Financial System Development and Stability
Status of Implementation of the COMESA Assessment Framework for
Financial System Stability by member countries
Training on Modelling and Forecasting Volatility in Financial Market
within a Multivariate Framework;
Training on Financial Stability, Systemic Risk and Macroprudential
Policy, and
Validation workshop on Guidelines for Institutional Framework for
Implementation of Macroprudential Policy in the COMESA Region
6.
Work Plan for the COMESA Financial System Development and Stability
Sub-Committee for the year 2016;
7.
Any other Business
8.
Closure of the Meeting
ACCOUNT OF PROCEEDINGS
Report on Status of Implementation of the Recommendation of the 9th Meeting of the
Financial System Development and Stability. (Agenda item 5(i))
6.
The Director of the COMESA Monetary Institute presented a report under this
agenda item. He informed the meeting that all the recommendations of the Sub-Committee
were endorsed by the 20th meeting of the COMESA Committee of Governors of Central
Banks which was held in Kinshasa, DR Congo in November 2014. The status of
implementation of the decisions of the Governors as related to the activities of the SubCommittee in 2014 are contained in the table below:
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TABLE 1: STATUS OF IMPLEMENTATIONS OF THE DECISIONS MADE BY THE 20TH
MEETING OF THE COMESA COMMITTEE OF GOVERNORS OF CENTRAL BANKS AS
RELATED TO THE RECOMMENDED ACTIVITIES BY THE 9TH MEETING OF THE
FINANCIAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND STABILITY SUB-COMMITTEE IN 2014
Decision
By Whom
By When
Status
Governors approved the Action Plan
contained in the Sub-Committee Report for
enhancing the implementation of the activities
related with the assessment of financial
stability
Member
countries
June 2015
The status of implementation by
member countries is contained
in Table 2 below.
Governors approved the following Work Plan
of the Financial System Development and
Stability Sub-Committee for 2014
CMI
June 2015
i)
Preparation of a Guideline for
Appropriate Institutional Governance
Framework for Implementation of
Macro-prudential Policies in the
COMESA Region
Training on Financial stability,
Systemic Risk Assessment and
Macro-prudential policy
Modelling and Forecasting Volatility in
Financial Markets in Multivariate
Framework;
ii)
iii)
CMI through the COMESA Statistics Unit
should spearhead the consolidation of
regional macroprudential statistics that are
accessible to member countries
The consultant who prepared the Manual for
SHIELDS rating to Submit the final version of
the Manual on 28th February 2015
1. The finalisation of the
Guideline for Institutional
Framework for Implementing
Macroprudential is work in
progress.
2. All
trainings
undertaken;
CMI and
COMESA
secretariat
Work in progress
The consultant did not finalise
the
Manual
and
all
recommended activities related
with SHIELDS rating were not
carried out.
Discussions
7.
were
In the discussions that followed, the meeting agreed that data requirement for the
SHIELDS rating cannot be fulfilled by COMESA member countries. The meeting
underscored the importance of harmonization of methodologies for assessment of financial
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system stability in all member countries. The meeting therefore agreed that this can be
achieved by adopting simpler tools such as Financial Stability Index and the Cobweb
Diagram which are recommended by Basel III.
Recommendation
8.
The meeting recommended the following:
1. SHIELDS Rating for assessment of financial system stability be
replaced by construction of Financial Stability Index and Cobweb
Diagram;
2. CMI should prepare Guidelines for construction of Financial Stability
Index and Cobweb Diagram; and
3. CMI should set up a web platform where member countries’ central
banks can actively share and exchange ideas on issues related with
assessment of financial stability.
Report by Member Countries on Implementation of the COMESA Assessment
Framework for Financial System Stability (Agenda item 5(ii))
9.
Delegates from member countries reported on the status of implementations of the
COMESA Assessment Framework for Financial System Stability as contained below in table
2. The report focused on the following:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
Establishment of Financial Stability Unit;
Establishment of Multi-disciplinary Financial Stability Committees;
Development of action plan for implementation of COMESA Framework for
Financial Stability Assessment covering:
(a) Forward looking Financial Stability Reports;
(b) Status of implementation on macro-prudential policies;
(iv)
(v)
10.
Report on Compliance to the revised Basel Core Principles on Effective
Banking Supervision; and
Electronic submission of Financial Stability Reports and Financial Soundness
Indicators for banking sector to the COMESA Monetary Institute (CMI).
The workshop noted the following from member countries reports:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
Most COMESA member states have set up Financial Stability Units;
The member states are at various stages of setting up the Financial Stability
Committees;
Implementation of Forward looking Financial Stability Reports was still work in
progress for most Member countries; and
Member states are at different levels of compliance to the revised Basel Core
Principles on Effective Banking Supervision.
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Table 2: Status of Implementation of the COMESA Financial Stability Assessment
Framework by 8 Member States
Status of Implementation
No.
Task
Activity
Completion
Date
Implemented
1
2
3
4
1
Financial
Stability Unit
Financial
Stability
Committee
Establish a Financial
Stability Unit
Establish a multidisciplinary Financial
Stability Committee
Develop action Prepare Forward looking
plan for
Financial Stability Reports
implementation
of COMESA
Framework for
Financial
Stability
Assessment
Implementation of macroprudential policies1
Report on
Compliance to
the revised
Basel Core
Principles on
Effective
Banking
Supervision
Extent of Compliance to
the revised Basel Core
Principles on Effective
Banking Supervision2
June 2015
Egypt, Kenya,
Sudan,
Madagascar,
Malawi,
Swaziland
Uganda,
Zimbabwe
June 2015
Egypt, Kenya,
Malawi,
Swaziland
Uganda,
Madagascar,
Sudan,
Zimbabwe
Work In
Progress
30 June 2015
Egypt, Kenya,
Malawi,
Swaziland,
Uganda,
Madagascar,
Sudan,
Zimbabwe
30 June 2015
Kenya, Egypt
Malawi,
Swaziland,
Uganda,
Madagascar,
Sudan,
Zimbabwe
30 June 2015
Egypt, Kenya,
Malawi,
Swaziland,
Uganda,
Madagascar,
Sudan,
Zimbabwe
This requires clarity in overall/final objective/mandate of macroprudential policy, identification of key
risks/triggers, Mapping, monitoring indicators and stress testing and having a robust Policy
toolkit/instruments including counter cyclical buffers.
2 Member countries will provide extent of compliance, none compliance or none applicability of the
revised core principles before the next sub-committee meeting.
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5
6
Financial
Stability
Reports.
Electronic Submission of
Financial Stability Reports
to COMESA Monetary
Institute (CMI).
Financial
Soundness
Indicators
Electronic submission of
Financial Soundness
Indicators (FSIs) to
COMESA Monetary
Institute (CMI).
30 June 2015
30 June 2015
Malawi,
Madagascar,
Uganda
Egypt,
Swaziland,
Sudan,
Uganda
Swaziland,
Sudan, Egypt
Kenya,
Zimbabwe
Malawi,
Kenya,
Madagascar,
Zimbabwe
Discussions
11.
In the discussions that followed, the following were observed:
(i)
(ii)
Future reports should assess compliance to the revised Core Principles for
Effective Banking Supervision clearly stipulating extent of compliance, non
compliance or none applicability; and
The meeting noted the significant improvement of country reports with
enough details that enabled member countries to learn from one another.
Recommendation
12.
The meeting recommended the following:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
Future reports should provide details on compliance to the revised Core
Principles for Effective Banking Supervision clearly stipulating extent of
compliance, non compliance or none applicability.
Member Central Banks submit Financial Soundness Indicators to CMI
by 30th June every year to enable CMI post in its website.
Starting from 2016, each member country’s report will include detailed
analysis of Financial Soundness Indicators.
Training on Modelling and Forecasting Volatility in Financial Market within a
Multivariate Framework (Agenda item 5(iii))
13.
The meeting noted that the training was designed to address salient features of
financial markets volatility especially in less developed countries, where the financial
markets are less developed and the cost of adjusting to changes in the economic
environment is higher. The meeting was informed that volatility in financial markets
generates uncertainty which increases the associated level of risk and could therefore, have
a major impact on financial stability and economic growth. As a result, it is a major concern
in risk management and monetary policy making, among others. In view of the above, the
overall objective of the training was to enable participants acquire appropriate analytical
skills and rigour in modelling and forecasting volatility in financial markets. This is expected
to contribute to minimization of the adverse effects of uncertainty in financial markets on
macroeconomic management in particular and economic development in general.
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14.
The meeting also noted that presentations were made on the following:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
(vi)
Introduction to Financial market volatility and to modelling financial market
volatility
Modelling Conditional Volatility: the ARCH, GARCH, ARCH-M, GARCH-M
and IGARCH Models, and models of Asymmetry (the TGARCH, EGARCH,
PARCH and CGARCH models), and departure from Gaussianity, and
stochastic volatility
Estimation of the ARCH and GARCH effects, and related models, using both
the popular ordinary least squares (OLS) and Maximum Likelihood
techniques.
Modelling multivariate GARCH
Forecasting conditional volatility (in theory and practice) and forecast
performance evaluation.,
Group exercises and presentations.
15.
The meeting was informed that the presentations were supported by illustrations
using relevant case studies. Hands on training using EVIEWS-8 as well as supervised
group exercises using country specific financial data were also carried out.
16.
The meeting was also informed that each group made presentations on the
outcomes of group exercises. This clearly demonstrated that the training had equipped the
participants with the necessary analytical skills and rigour in dealing with volatility in financial
markets.
17.
The meeting noted that the participants proposed a training to be held in 2016 on
Modelling volatility in financial market with particular emphasis on forecasting and
multivariate framework.
Recommendation
18.
The meeting recommended that CMI organize training in 2016 on:
(i)
Modelling volatility in financial market with particular emphasis on
forecasting and multivariate framework; and
(ii)
Econometrics and statistical techniques for Banks’ supervisors and
Financial Stability Practitioners.
Training on Financial Stability, Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policy (Agenda
item 5(iv))
19.
The meeting was informed that the main objective of the training was to equip the
participants with appropriate analytical skills and rigour on macroprudential tools relevant to
COMESA member countries.
20.
The meeting noted the following salient points of the presentations under three
themes namely, Assessment of Financial Stability, Systemic Risk Assessment and
Macroprudential Policy.
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(a) Assessment of Financial stability
21.
The meeting noted that the topics covered in this session included among others,
monitoring financial stability in developing economies, the design of Financial Stability
Reports, communication strategy and banking theory on crisis management and resolution.
22.
The key lessons learnt in this session were the following:
(i) The importance of having Forward Looking Financial Stability Reports including;
identification and quantification of (systemic) risks, and the ability to motivate
action to prevent or mitigate systemic risks.
(ii) How to design crisis management and resolution plan. Participants were provided
with hands on training on crisis resolution.
Recommendation
23.
The meeting recommended the following:
(i) Member States Central Banks should attempt to move towards the
standardisation of Financial Stability Reports. The proposed new risk
focused and forward looking financial stability report may be organised as
per the following suggested outline:
Chapter 1: Overview and Executive Summary
Chapter 2: Economic and Financial Conditions: (Domestic and
External) vulnerabilities to the outlook;
Chapter 3: Main Risk Scenarios (e.g. Stability implications of
external demand shocks or liquidity problems on the
banking system); future prospects, risks and stress tests.
Chapter 4: Conclusions and Policy recommendations: This should be
recommendations for preventing systemic problems or dealing
with them if prevention fails. This section may also review
developments in macroprudential policy since the preceding
report.
Appendix I: Special Topic: This should delve more deeply but concisely
into important existing vulnerabilities and sources of risks or
policy challenges.
Appendix II: Statistical Tables: Financial Soundness Indicators and
consolidated balance sheet of the banking sector.
(ii) Member Central Banks need for an institutional framework to translate
financial stability analysis to policy making.
(iii) Member Central Banks need to address data gaps for effective analysis and
identification of Domestic Systemically Important Banks (DSIB’s) done at
least once a year.
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(b) Systemic risk assessment
24.
The meeting noted that the topics covered in this session included systemic risk
monitoring and assessment; interconnectedness and contagion in the financial system. In
addition, the stress testing of the financial system was also discussed. Practical exercises on
liquidity and cash flow based stress testing were conducted. Theoretical aspects of financial
risk cycles and financial stability; and approaches to mitigating systemic risk were discussed.
The training also discussed identification and monitoring Systemically Important Financial
Institutions. This also included practical exercises on identification of Domestic Systemically
Important Banks (DSIB’s). Further discussion centred on interconnectedness and contagion
in the financial system. Hand on training on assessing the impact of contagion in the
financial system was also conducted. Further capacity building work involved training on
tools for systemic risk assessment. Hands on exercises on developing a cobweb model and
financial stability indices were conducted.
25.
The lessons learnt under this topic are;
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
Importance of cross-border cooperation and coordination in assessing
systemic risk.
Identification of DSIB’s is vital
The importance of making use of tools that address emerging risks in the
country
The need for a framework to conduct assessments and update them on a
regular basis
Need to develop a flexible policy response to mitigate emerging
macroprudential risks
Recommendation
26.
The meeting recommended the following:
(i)
Member countries should undertake work to determine their Domestic
Systemically Important Banks (DSIB’s) and design appropriate policies
to manage risks that could be posed by these institutions.
(ii)
Cross-border cooperation and coordination in assessing systemic risks
is important.
(c) Macroprudential policy
27.
The meeting noted that this session discussed in details macroprudential policy
including aspects of implications of macroprudential policy and procyclicality with particular
reference to developing countries. Participants learnt key issues in macroprudential
surveillance as well as the different macroprudential measures that are being employed. The
theoretical aspects of macroprudential analysis and practical challenges were also
investigated.
28.
The meeting noted that the following key issues were identified during the training
under macroprudential policy:
(i)
Macroprudential oversight is meant to complement rather than replace
microprudential supervision.
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(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
(vi)
(vii)
Macroprudential oversight encompasses an analytical component aimed at
the timely detection of systemic risk.
Macroprudential oversight also includes a policy component aimed at the
timely mitigation of systemic risk through financial regulation and/or ad hoc
policy measures.
Institutional arrangements should be put in place to specify responsibilities,
powers and interagency coordination.
There is need to build robust analytical underpinnings for macroprudential
policymaking because effective mitigation of systemic risk requires
policymakers to monitor, measure and evaluate systemic risk.
An operational framework is essential to implementing macroprudential
policy.
The framework should merge all the key aspects of the financial system,
including banking institutions, the insurance and pension sectors, financial
markets and payment systems.
Recommendation
29.
The meeting recommended the following:
(i)
There is need for more cross border information sharing and
cooperation especially among COMESA member states;
(ii)
Member countries need to have Institutional arrangements which
specify responsibilities, powers and
interagency coordination to
undertake macroprudential surveillance;
(iii)
Member states should start compiling necessary data that is needed for
macroprudential analysis;
(iv)
The Institutional arrangement should merge all the key aspects of the
financial system, including banking institutions, the insurance and
pension sectors, financial markets and payment systems
(v)
CMI to organize trainings in 2016 on:
(a)
(b)
(vi)
Basel III and Macroprudential Surveillance; and
Application of stress testing in the financial system;
CMI in collaboration with member countries to conduct a study to
benchmark and provide guidelines for the design of Forward-Looking
Financial Stability Reports
Validation workshop on Guidelines for Institutional Framework for Implementation of
Macroprudential Policy in the COMESA Region (Agenda item 5(v))
30.
The meeting noted the following key highlights of the Guidelines:
(i) Three key pillars of a Macroprudential Policy Framework are:
(a) An analytical framework aimed at identification and monitoring of
systemic risk.
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(b) An institutional framework aimed at ensuring a decisive and timely
policy response for if and when intervention is needed. Important
issues to be considered and made clear within the framework include
designation of mandates and powers, issues of accountability,
coordination mechanisms and decision-making processes.
(c) Once both the analytical framework and institutional framework are
put into place, a set of policy measures aimed at mitigating the buildup of systemic risk can then be implemented.
(ii) Three main categories of Institutional Models for implementation of
Macroprudential policy are:
(a) Full integration model where all financial regulatory and supervisory
functions rest with the central bank. By having full integration of
macroprudential policy under one roof, the management provides
incentives for proactive delivery of information to the Board. However,
full integration hands a lot of power to the central bank, which is
already responsible for monetary policy.
(b) Partial integration model involves close integration between the
central bank, the prudential regulator, and the regulator of systemically
important financial institutions. The central bank therefore retains a
strong role in systemic risk mitigation, but not full responsibility. With
this model, the central bank retains access to relevant prudential data
and expertise, helping risk identification. Risk mitigation is also clearly
assigned to one body – the committee. On the other hand, the
creation of a separate, dedicated macroprudential committee is at the
expense of reduced coordination with monetary policy, potentially
leading to a suboptimal policy mix.
(c) Separation model with much greater degree of institutional separation
between the central bank and other supervisory agencies. The central
bank is responsible for oversight of the payments system and control
over the reserve requirement, but has no direct power over
macroprudential tools. The identification and mitigation of risk is a
multi-agency effort under this group of models. A key weakness with
this model is that having multiple institutions dilutes the accountability
for systemic risk – when multiple agencies are cooperating for the
desired policy outcome, no one agency is fully responsible if the
cooperation fails. This can lower the incentive to cooperate in the
reduction of systemic risk.
31.
The meeting also noted the following key aspects of the proposed institutional
frameworks:
(i)
(ii)
A number of mechanisms to address weaknesses of institutional models are
suggested. When a single agency has strong and independent powers, the
use of these powers must be constrained. This can be achieved through the
mandate of the policymaker, the accountability framework, and the
composition of the decision making committee.
A major weakness in several models is the risk of delayed decision making.
Where committee membership is large, the risk is increased. Having a clear
distinction between the set up for macroprudential policy and that of crisis
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(iii)
(iv)
management reduces the need for Treasury involvement. While Treasury
involvement in crisis management is crucial, strong Treasury involvement in
macroprudential policy can be costly.
Full cooperation between the various agencies is needed for successful
macroprudential policy, yet across several models there is the potential for a
lack of cooperation. Establishing a formal coordinating committee can help to
alleviate this risk.
Another challenge is that of policy coordination; a policy that may stabilise the
financial sector in terms of macroprudential stability may not fit well with a
policy aimed at say, price stability requiring inter agency policy coordination.
Discussions
32.
The meeting observed the following:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
(vi)
(vii)
The importance of taking into account cross border macroprudential issues
that may arise especially when institutions being supervised have presence
across borders.
The Guidelines addressed broad issues but lack clarity in proposing a clear
institutional framework for COMESA region.
A disclaimer should be included at the beginning, specifying that while several
of the approaches suggested in the Guidelines refer to studies and works
carried out in other regions, COMESA Member Countries should therefore
identify areas in the Guidelines that are best applicable to their economies.
The Guidelines should provide broad solutions to the challenges/weaknesses
faced by COMESA Member countries in operationalising the three stylized
institutional framework for macroprudential policy. More specifically, the
Guidelines should provide solutions to the challenges identified in terms of
tools, instruments and indicators that member countries can apply in line with
the appendix on the experience of EAC attached to the report.
The Guidelines should propose a legal framework that will empower financial
regulators in COMESA Member Countries to apply macroprudential policy.
The title should reflect both legal and institutional aspects in order to align it
with the body of the text.
The Guidelines should be subjected to further review by sending the
document to COMESA Member Central Banks for comments before the next
Governors meeting.
The Guidelines should provide a more comprehensive menu of applicable
tools in the analytical framework.
Recommendations
33.
The workshop therefore recommended the following:
(i)
The Consultant should revise the Guidelines taking into account the
observations made in paragraph 32 above.
(ii)
The Guidelines should clearly spell out in details the Institutional and
legal framework for the 3 stylized models that could be relevant for
COMESA member.
(iii)
The Guidelines should clearly stipulate solutions to the weaknesses/
challenges of the Proposed Framework.
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(iv)
A further review of the guidelines as per the following timelines:
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
(v)
The consultant to incorporate the comments from the validation
workshop by 25th September, 2015;
CMI to send the Revised Guidelines to member countries for further
review by 2nd October, 2015;
Member countries to send their comments on the Guidelines to CMI
by 16th October, 2015;
The consultant to incorporate the comments from member countries
by 6th November, 2015; and
CMI to send the final draft for noting to member countries by 10th
November, 2015.
The guidelines should incorporate definitions, methods of
computations, data sources of key macroprudential indicators and a
comprehensive menu of applicable tools in the analytical framework.
Work plan for Financial System Development and Stability Sub-Committee for the
Year 2016 (Agenda item 6)
34.
The Director of CMI presented the work plan for the Sub-Committee for 2016.
Recommendation
35.
The meeting recommended the following work plan for the Financial System
Development and Stability Sub-Committee for 2016.
No.
1
2
3
Task
Activity
Responsibility
Financial
Stability Unit
Establish Financial Stability Unit
Financial
Stability
Committee
Establish a multi-disciplinary
Financial Stability Committee
Member
Countries that
have not
established
Action Plan
Develop in-country Action Plan
for Implementation of COMESA
Framework covering:
Member
Countries
 Development of capacity on
sound Macroprudential
analysis;
 Forward Looking Financial
stability reports;
 Implementation of
macroprudential policies
Member
Countries
Completion Date
June 2016
June 2016
June 2016
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4.
Submission of
Forward
Looking
Financial
Stability
Reports
Electronic submission of
Financial Stability Assessment
Reports to the Secretariat for
posting onto the COMESA
website
Member
Countries
June 2016
5
Financial
Soundness
Indicators
Electronic submission of IMF
Financial Soundness Indicators
(FSIs) for banking sector to the
Secretariat for posting onto the
COMESA website
Member
Countries
June 2016
6
Compliance to
the Revised
Basel Core
Principles
Report Compliance based on
Revised Core Principles
Member
Countries
June 2016
7
Capacity
Building and
other activities
Conduct training on the following:
CMI/Member
countries
June 2016
Consultants
June 2016
8
Studies
(i) Basel III and
Macroprudential
Surveillance; and
(ii) Application of stress
testing in the financial
system;
(iii) Modelling volatility in
financial market with
particular emphasis on
forecasting and
multivariate framework
(iv) Econometrics and
statistical techniques for
Banks’ Supervisors and
Financial Stability
Practitioners
(i) Finalization of the
Guidelines on Institutional
and legal framework for
the 3 stylized models that
could be relevant for
COMESA member
countries
(ii) Preparation of a Guide for
Construction of Financial
Stability Index and
Cobweb diagram
(iii) Guidelines and
benchmark for designing
Forward-Looking
Financial Stability
Reports
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(i) Estimating and
forecasting volatility in
short-term exchange rate
using the GARCH
models.
(ii) Analysis of direct and
spill-over effects of
exchange rate volatility
on inflation using GARCH
models
Researchers
from Member
Countries
June 2016
Any Other Business (Agenda item 7)
36.
No issues were raised under this agenda item.
Closure of the meeting (Agenda item 8)
37.
The meeting adopted the report with amendments.
38.
Mrs. Justine Bagyenda, Executive Director Supervision, Bank of Uganda passed a
vote of thanks on her behalf and on behalf of the delegates. She thanked the resource
persons who facilitated the trainings for a job well done. She also thanked the participants
for their active participation and the CMI staff for the efficient manner they serviced the
meeting. She also thanked the management of the Kenya School of Monetary Studies for
availing excellent facilities for the training.
39.
In closing the meeting, the Chairman thanked delegates for their useful contributions
and the resource people for their valuable contribution in undertaking successful trainings.
He expressed his confidence that the trainings will greatly assist for enhanced
implementation of the COMESA Framework for Assessing Financial System Stability. He
wished the delegates safe journey back home.
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LIST OF PARTICIPANTS/LISTE DES PARTICIPANTS
EGYPT
1. Mr. Ahmed Mohamed Ahmed Sahloul (PhD) Quantitative Risk Analyst, Central Bank of
Egypt, 54 El Gomhoria Street. Down Town, Cairo, Tel. +202 167771643, E-mail:
ahmed.sahloul@cbe.org.eg
KENYA
2. Mr. Simon Gachira Gichuki, Manager, Central Bank of Kenya, P. O. Box 60000 00200
Nairobi, Tel. +254 020 2863041, Email: gichukisg@centralbank.go.ke
MADAGASCAR
3. Mr. Andriambelosoa Saminirina, Senior Economist, Financial Stability Unit, Banque
Centrale De Madagascar, BP 550, Tananarive, Madagascar, Tel. +261 320246147,
Email: saminirina@hotmail.com / s.andriambelosoa@bfm.mg
4. Ms. Rakotoarimanana Tahiry Ny Aina, Banking Supervisor, Commision De Supervision
Bancaire Et Financière, Banque Centrale De Madagascar, BP 550, Antananarivo 101
Madagascar,
Tel.
+261
346122044,
Email:
tahiry1306@yahoo.fr
/
t.rakotoarimanana2@bfm.mg
MALAWI
5. Mr. Ketamyoto Mulwafu, Chief Examiner, Bank Supervision Department, Reserve Bank
of Malawi, P. O. Box 565 Blantyre, Malawi, Tel. +265 1 820299, E-mail:
kmulwafu@rbm.mw
6. Ms. Margaret Kaphinde, Reserve Bank of Malawi, P.O. Box 30063, Lilongwe 3 ,
Malawi, Tel. +265 999320470, E-mail: mkaphinde@rbm.mw /
magikaphinde@rocketmail.com
7.
Mr. Chimwemwe Mlaviwa, Examiner Banks, Bank Supervision Department, Reserve
Bank of Malawi, P. O. Box 565, Blantrye, Malawi, Tel. +265 999867380, Email:
cmlaviwa@rbm.mw
RWANDA
8. Mr. Valence Kimenyi, Manager, Financial Stability Monitoring and Policy, National Bank
of Rwanda, Tel. +250 785068423, Email: vkimenyi@bnr.rw
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SUDAN
9. Mr. Bushra Khair Elhag Khair, Economist, Central Bank of Sudan; P.O. Box 313,
Khartoum, Tel. +249 12 1053396, E-mail: bushraelhag@gmail.com
10. Mr. Elhadi Mustafa Mohamed Elamin, Banking Supervisor, Central Bank of Sudan, P. O.
Box 313, Khartoum, Sudan, Tel. +249 187056530, Fax. +249 183767110, Email: elhadielamin@cbos.gov.sd
11. Mr. Barakat Ahmed Elmahi Ibrahim, Central Bank of Sudan, P. O. Box 313, Khartoum,
Sudan, Tel. +249 912316199, Email: Barakat.Elmahi@cbos.gov.sd
12. Mr. Mustafa Abdel Gadir Ali Dinar, Economist, Central Bank of Sudan, P. O. Box 313,
Khartoum, Sudan, Tel. +249 912224032, Fax. +249 183181341, Email:
mdinaar@yahoo.com
SWAZILAND
13. Mr. Wellington Motsa, Manager, Financial Stability, Central Bank of Swaziland, P. O.
Box 546 Mbabane Swaziland, Tel. +268 24082159, Fax. +268 24047219, Email:
wellingtonm@centralbank.org.sz
UGANDA
14. Mrs Justine Bagyenda, Executive Director Supervision, Bank of Uganda; P.O. Box 7120,
Kampala, Tel. +256 414 230051, E-mail: jbagyenda@bou.or.ug
15. Ms. Pamela Kahwa, Principal Banking Officer, Bank of Uganda, P. O. Box 7120
Kampala Tel. +256 750147972, Email: pkahwa@bou.or.ug
16. Mr. Peter Mugisa, Principal Banking Officer, Bank of Uganda; P.O. Box 7120, Kampala,
Tel. +256 414 258441, E-mail: pmugisa@bou.or.ug
ZIMBABWE
17. Mr. Collen Masunda, Senior Bank Examiner, Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 80 Samora
Machel
Avenue,
Harare,
Tel.
+263
14773542730/+263
70300,
Email:
collenmasunda@rbz.co.zw
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COMESA Monetary Institute
18. Mr. Ibrahim A. Zeidy, Director, COMESA Monetary Institute; P. O Box 65041-00618,
Nairobi, E-mail:izeidy@comesa.int
19. Dr. Lucas Njoroge, Senior Economist, COMESA Monetary Institute, P. O. Box 65041
00618, Nairobi, Email: Lnjoroge@comesa.int
20. Mrs. Monica Cherwon, Administrative Assistant, COMESA
Administrative Assistant, E-mail: monicakogo@yahoo.com
Monetary Institute,
21. Mr. Jacob Omondi Oyoo, Bilingual Secretary, COMESA Monetary Institute, Bilingual
Secretary, E-mail: JOyoo@comesa.int / ojacksoyoo@hotmail.com