A collective labor supply model with externalities Identification and estimation by means of panel data Pierre-Carl Michaud (RAND) Frederic Vermeulen (Tilburg University) F ACULTY OF E CONOMICS AND B USINESS ADMINISTRATION Introduction Household labor supply usually rationalized by standard unitary model Households assumed to behave as single decision makers Utility function maximized subject to a budget constraint Implies well-known theoretical restrictions Unique preference ordering if restrictions are satisfied Unitary model suffers from methodological and empirical shortcomings Does not fit in methodological individualism Unitary restrictions usually rejected when tested on multiperson households F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 2 Introduction Collective approach to household behaviour Chiappori (1988, 1992) Multi-person households consist of different individuals with own rational preferences Intra-household allocations are Pareto-efficient Theoretical restrictions that fit the data better than unitary restrictions F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 3 Introduction Crucial issue: can we identify individual preferences and the intra-household bargaining process on couples’ labor supply data alone? No, if there are leisure externalities and consumption is public Yes, if leisure is exclusive Yes, if individual preferences are egoistic or of the Beckerian caring type Allows analyzing policy reforms in terms of individual preferences But restrictive assumptions F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 4 Introduction Novel approach to obtain identification when individual preferences allow for general externalities with respect to leisure Idea: make use of individuals who are observed as member of a couple and as a single (widows and widowers) Core assumption: preferences can only change via observable characteristics when somebody is widowed Preferences are individual specific: can only change via clear channel when spouse dies Obvious candidate: mental health shocks that can in principle be controlled for F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 5 Introduction Application to sample of older Americans drawn from the Health and Retirement Study HRS allows identification strategy: substantial number of initial couples dissolved over time due to death of one of the spouses Evidence for joint retirement: complementarities in leisure Social security simulations by collective model and related unitary model What is value added of collective model? F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 6 Overview Identifying a collective labor supply model with leisure externalities Empirical specification Data Estimation results Simulation results Conclusion F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 7 Overview Identifying a collective labor supply model with leisure externalities F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 8 Identifying a collective labor supply model with leisure externalities Ingredients of a collective labor supply model Individual preferences Pareto-efficient intra-household bargaining process Observed allocations result from the maximization of a weighted sum of spouses’ utilities subject to a household budget constraint Pareto weights depend on wages and non-labor income F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 9 Household maximization problem m m f m f m f f max b v l , l , c ; z 1 b v l , l , c ; z m f l ,l , c subject t o c wm h m w f h f y F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 10 Identifying a collective labor supply model with leisure externalities Individual preferences and Pareto weights are not identifiable without additional assumptions Continuum of utility functions and Pareto weights yield same observed behavior vm v m v f vf v f v m 1 ; 1 max , 1 1 1 Chiappori and Ekeland (2005) propose restrictions on marginal utilities to secure identifiability Marginal utility of exclusive goods set to zero in other individual’s utility function F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 11 Identifying a collective labor supply model with leisure externalities Approach not immediately applicable: We only observe leisure and consumption of Hicksian aggregate good in labor supply data sets Evidence that there are leisure externalities Our identification strategy: make use of individuals who are observed as member of a couple and as a single (panel data) Core assumption: preferences can only change via observable characteristics when somebody becomes a widow(er) Allows to pin one (and only one) structural model from the continuum of structural models F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 12 Identifying a collective labor supply model with leisure externalities Recall: single’s optimization problem j j j max v l , c ; z s j l ,c s.t. c w j h j y; j m, f Assumption regarding preferences implies l v l vsm l m , c; z m v m l m , l f , c; z m vsf f , c; z f f m , l f , c; z f Unidentified constant: leisure level associated with deceased spouse F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 13 Identifying a collective labor supply model with leisure externalities ‘Household’ utility function: k m 1 k f v m l m , l f , c; z m k f 1 k m v f l m , l f , c; z f k m k f b v m l m , l f , c; z m 1 bv f l m , l f , c; z f Three cases can be distinguished: couple, widows and widowers Compare to Chiappori and Ekeland (2005): marginal utility of partner’s leisure equals zero only when that spouse died F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 14 Overview Identifying a collective labor supply model with leisure externalities Empirical specification F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 15 Empirical specification Discrete choice framework Spouses choose between a limited number of working hours choices Husbands: 0, 25, 40 and 50 hours Wives: 0, 15, 30 and 40 hours Nonlinear budget sets F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 16 Empirical specification Preferences are of a modified Cobb-Douglas type uitj jj zitj ln litj cj zitj ln cit mfj zitj ln litm ln litf j m, f Discrete unobserved heterogeneity in marginal utility of own leisure cj zitj zitj ' cj z z ' j j j it j it j j j mfj zitj zitj ' mfj F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 17 Empirical specification Pareto weight exp REC it , yit , SSit bit 1 exp REC it , yit , SSit Fixed costs of participation taken into account via monetary costs subtracted from after-tax income if one returns to work (state dependence) Part-time specific utility costs Estimation in conditional logit framework with discrete heterogeneity F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 18 Empirical specification Unitary model’s specification uit m zit ln litm f zit ln litf c zit ln cit mf zit ln litm ln litf Also discrete heterogeneity, fixed costs of participation and part-time specific utility costs taken into account F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 19 Overview Identifying a collective labor supply model with leisure externalities Empirical specification Data F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 20 Data Health and Retirement Study Longitudinal survey that follows a cohort of individuals who were born between 1931 and 1941, and their partners We use first six biennial waves (1992-2002) Sample selection Married or cohabiting couples where both individuals were alive in 1992 Sample of 2342 households that are potentially 6 times observed (487 widows and 138 widowers in 2002) F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 21 Overview Identifying a collective labor supply model with leisure externalities Empirical specification Data Estimation results F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 22 Estimation results F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 23 Estimation results F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 24 Overview Identifying a collective labor supply model with leisure externalities Empirical specification Data Estimation results Some simulations F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 25 Some simulations Simulation 1: Elimination of earnings test Social security benefits are reduced if one has earnings above a threshold if one is younger than the normal retirement age Reimers and Honig (1996), Friedberg (2000): men are deterred from working by this rule, while women are not affected Gruber and Orszag (2000): no influence on husbands, while there are disincentive effects for women F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 26 Simulation 1 F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 27 Some simulations Simulation 2: Elimination of spouse allowance Spouse is entitled to the maximum of the own benefit and half of the spouse’s benefit given eligibility Blau (1997): elimination of allowance with replacement by earnings sharing has negative impact on husbands’ participation and positive impact on wives’ participation F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 28 Simulation 2 F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 29 Welfare effects F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 30 Overview Identifying a collective labor supply model with leisure externalities Empirical specification Data Estimation results Some simulations Conclusion F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 31 Conclusion Collective labor supply model Identification strategy in the presence of leisure externalities Application to Health and Retirement Study Strong rejection of unitary model Better fit of collective model Simulations: depending on simulation and criterion (participation/welfare) qualitatively different results obtained F ACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 32