We Select Only the Top 100% of
High School Graduating Class
-It Takes A Village to Secure the Future of
Community Colleges
Jing Luan, Ph.D.
Cabrillo College
Presentation at Four College Region Trustees Meeting
(Hartnell, Cabrillo, Gavilan & MPC) April 28, 2005
Headlines
Victims of Our Own Wealth
• Global Trends: Knowledge shift lessens demands for
science, high tech courses in the U.S. Culture boom
results in our willingness to pay for service and
knowledge.
• National Trends: Pre-2000, births decline resulted in
elementary school closures/consolidations nationwide
and high schools will follow suit. (*1)
• California Trends: Since 1992, for every 1% enrollment
increase in community colleges, funding increased by
5.4%. System funding for community colleges was $4.9B
in 2004 (*2). If DOF or AMBAG projections of annual 1.5%
population growth hold, by 2015, it will be $10B (*2,4).
Pressure is on for creative budgetary thinking and share
of cost. But how?
More Victims of Our Own Wealth
• Local Trends: By 2009, Median House Value will
increase by 125% ($313K in 2000 to $702K in 2009);
People earning $150,000+ will increase by 127% while
others drop; Owner occupied housing is 62% for Whites
or Asians, less than 45% for others) (*3); Tidal Wave II
remains only a pretty concept. Non-Hispanic
population is decreasing and Hispanic birth rate is
slowing down. Young families are moving away.
• Local Colleges’ Trends: More basic skills needs; More
trending toward occupation needs of an aging, wealthy
and overall declining population; Fewer Hispanic
students than anticipated for Cabrillo and MPC;
Continued disruption by periodical fee hikes (Every $1
increase resulted in loss of 100 students. It takes 3 years
for enrollment to recover.) (*7).
Faces of Our Students, Faces of Our
Community & Voters
The Neglected Majority? (Dale Parnell)
Non-traditional students are traditional students in community colleges
(*5).
How Do We Serve Them?
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By being the great equalizer
Highly responsive to change
Jack of All Trades and Master of Everything
Constantly convince people that buying cheap
is buying smart
• Running it lean and mean (George Foreman
must have “stolen” it from us.)
– A typical cc annual marketing dollar: $45K
– Heald College: $ 2million
Local Colleges Doing Their Share
(Within Their Sphere of Influence)
• Increasing Distance Education
• Compressing Schedules
• Creative Marketing
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Hartnell’s Needs Analysis
Gavilan’s Zipcode Geo Mapping
MPC’s Targeted Marketing/Enrollment Mgmt
Cabrillo’s Call Center
• Maintaining & Increasing student success
• Building partnerships and doing outreach
to high schools.
Issue One: Composite Student
Several Students Make Up One FTES
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Funding for community colleges is “enrollment” and “growth” based,
coupled with the unique funding formula called FTES. This is dated and
not reflective of the realities of the local community the college serves.
Where the Growth Is In California (*1)
Community College Learner Lifecycle
Full spectrum of the community and
full range of needs.
For people in each life stage,
consider:
•Population Size
•Needs
•Ability to Meet Needs
University
Population
It REALLY Takes A Village
For the local colleges
• Study Community College Learner Lifecycle
• Consider Learner Behavior & Engagement Data
• Enhance Research & Marketing (R&M vs. R&D)
For the legislators
• Provide Regional Equalization
• Try Gentle & Incremental Annual Fee Increase
For all of us present:
• Recognize We Are In An Era Of Transformation
• If UC is about maintaining our lead in high tech,
CC is about our state’s economic stability
• Ask not what your community college can do for
you. Ask what you can do for your community
college.
Data Sources
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(*1) Lapkoff & Gobalet Demographic Research, 2005
http://www.demographers.com/SchoolClosureCrisis.pdf
(*2) State Chancellor’s Office
(http://www.ijournal.us/issue_10/ij_issue10_06.html )
(*3) Maas Companies/ESRI
(*4) Department of Finance Projections
(*5) Reed, Sally (2005) Learning for Life. In many ways
and for myriad reasons, adults are heading back for class.
Lumina Foundation Focus, Winter 2005.
(*6) Interview & survey of four college CIOs and
researchers
(*7) Cabrillo College Planning & Research Team
(*8) Department of Finance
(*9) Association of Monterey Bay Area Governments
(AMBAG)
(*10) http://www.schoolmatters.com/
Scenarios
• Enrollment
• Funding