Historical climate and
future scenarios
Canadian Columbia River Forum
27 October 2008
Trevor Murdock
Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC)
University of Victoria
Outline
1.
2.
3.
Pacific Climate
Impacts Consortium
Variability and
historical trends
Future projections
Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium
www.PacificClimate.org
Launched 2005
 Focus on regional climate impacts
 Application of research to management,
planning, and decision-making
 Partner with research labs, impacts
researchers and regional stakeholders

PCIC Resources

BC Ministry of Environment

PICS Endowment www.pics.uvic.ca
BC Hydro
 BC Ministry of Forests and Range
 Communities and others – small projects


10 15 full time staff + post-docs
Climate Overview Project
www.PacificClimate.org/publications
Support from BC Hydro & BC MOE
Outline
1.
2.
3.
Pacific Climate
Impacts Consortium
Variability and
historical trends
Future projections
• Trend
• Decadal
• Annual
Annual and decadal variability
superimposed on climate trends
El Nino – less precipitation
La Nina – more precipitation
El Nino – warmer
La Nina – cooler
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
superimposed on ENSO
Cranbrook historical trends: warmer, wetter, more
rain, less snow, earlier streamflow, lower peak flow
Cranbrook warming faster than
nearby stations (1913-2002)
50-yr Temperature Trends
30-yr Temperature Trends
Precipitation (1913-2002)
Outline
1.
2.
3.
Pacific Climate
Impacts Consortium
Variability and
historical trends
Future projections
Projections of future climate change
•
Global Climate Models – range of uncertainty
•
Regional Climate Models – inter-regional differences
from larger scale changes
•
Empirical Downscaling – high resolution elevation
correction on temperature
Amount of climate change depends on
greenhouse gas emissions
IPCC AR4 Figure SPM.5
BC projected to warm considerably
compared to historical variability
•
•
BC Temperature Anomalies from (1961-1990)
15 GCMs
• solid A2
• dash B1
2050s range = uncertainty
2080s more emissions  warmer
Emissions
Scenario
10th
percentile
25th
percentile
50th
percentile
(median)
75th
percentile
90th
percentile
B1
1.3
1.6
1.9
2.1
2.6
A2
1.4
1.8
2.0
2.5
2.9
All
1.4
1.7
2.1
2.6
3.0
BC 2050s (2041-2070) annual temperature anomalies (°C) from (1961-1990) model
baseline. Range from all available AR4 scenarios.
T GCM range
T A2-B1
P GCM range
P A2-B1
2050s
1.6
0.1
11%
0%
2080s
2.4
1.5
13%
3%
Temperature (°C) and Precipitation (% of 1961-1990 model baseline)
uncertainty estimates from GCMs and emissions scenarios
Projected warming depends on GCM
and emissions scenario
Columbia Basin winter and summer
from GCMs (boxes) + RCM (red)
RCM adds regional detail unavailable
from its driving GCM
CGCM3 A2 run 4
CRCM 4.1.1 run acs & act forced
by CGCM3 A2 run 4
Winter temperature increase larger in
northern portion of Basin
CRCM 4.1.1 run
acs & act
forced by
CGCM3
A2 run 4
0-Degree C isotherm almost gone by
2050s (CGCM3 A2 run4)
Increased Growing Degree Days
(CGCM3 A2 run4)
Increased suitability for Douglas Fir,
decreased suitability for Spruce
(average of 5 projections)
•
Less summer rainfall projected in
eastern portion of the Basin
CRCM 4.1.1 run
acs & act
forced by
CGCM3
A2 run 4
Precipitation: likely
winter increase, summer decrease
Columbia Basin winter and summer
from GCMs (boxes) + RCM (red)
Summary
•
Climate variability
•
•
•
Historical trends
•
•
•
•
Year-to-year variability superimposed on long term
effects of El Nino/La Nina large in Columbia Basin
vary spatially, seasonally, and by length of record
winter minimum temperatures particularly milder
∆ T and P  components of hydrologic cycle – snowpack,
glaciers, streamflow & lake ice
Projections (2050s)
•
•
•
•
 T (1.6°C to 2.3°C)
 winter P (+1% to +13%)
 summer P (-10% to -4%)
GDD, tree species suitability  implications for H20 mgmt
Acknowledgements
Financial support, collaboration, review
Trends for Biodiversity
Matt Austin, BC Ministry of Environment
Jenny Fraser, BC Ministry of Environment
Richard Hebda, Royal BC Museum
Bob Peart, Biodiversity BC
Nancy Turner, University of Victoria
Climate Overview
Doug Smith, BC Hydro
Ben Kangasniemi, BC Ministry of Environment
Dave Spittlehouse, BC Ministry of Forests
Dan Moore, University of British Columbia
Stewart Cohen, UBC and Environment Canada
Dan Smith, University of Victoria
Elaine Barrow, Consultant
Sarah Boon, University of Lethbridge
Allan Chapman, River Forecast Centre
Xuebin Zhang, Environment Canada
Doug McCollor, BC Hydro
Phil Mote, University of Washington
Paul Whitfield, Environment Canada
Robin Pike, FORREX (now Ministry of Forests)
Forest Science Program Project
Forest Investment Account - Forest Science Program
Richard Hebda, Royal BC Museum
Dave Spittlehouse, BC Ministry of Forests
Steve Taylor , Pacific Forestry Centre
Vince Nealis , Pacific Forestry Centre
Rene Alfaro, Pacific Forestry Centre
Tongli Wang, University of British Columbia
Kees van Kooten , University of Victoria
Andreas Hamman, University of Alberta
PCIC Research Associates
Kirstin Campbell, Alvaro Montenegro, Alan Mehlenbacher,
Clint Abbott, Kyle Ford, Hamish Aubrey
PCIC Staff
Dilumie Abeysirigunawardena, Katrina Bennett, Dave
Bronaugh, Aquila Flower, Dave Rodenhuis, and Arelia
Werner
Thank you
For more information
www.PacificClimate.org
Trevor Murdock
250.472.4681
tmurdock@uvic.ca
PCIC Partners
Recent CO2 change comparable to
difference between ice age and now
Ice Core Temperature and CO2 levels past 20,000 yrs
Columbia Basin to warm considerably
compared to historical variability
•
•
BC Temperature Anomalies from (1961-1990)
15 GCMs
• solid A2
• dash B1
RCM shows regional differences in
projected relative precipitation change
CGCM3 A2 run 4
CRCM 4.1.1 run acs & act forced
by CGCM3 A2 run 4
Complementary mitigation and adaptation
(not trade-offs)
Source Jennifer Penney Clean Air Partnership
From Impacts to Adaptation
http://adaptation.rncan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php
From impacts
to adaptation
The following hydrology-related changes may be expected in
British Columbia:
• Increased atmospheric evaporative demand
• Altered vegetation composition affecting evaporation and
interception
• Increased stream and lake temperatures
• Increased frequency and magnitude of storm events and
disturbances
• Accelerated melting of permafrost, lake ice, and river ice
•Decreased snow accumulation and accelerated snowmelt
• Glacier mass balance adjustments
•Altered timing and magnitude of streamflow
From impacts
to adaptation
Municipalities can adapt to climate change
by mainstreaming climate considerations

T & P changes  impacts on
drought, landslide, storms,
water supply, power generation,
infrastructure, health etc.

Integrate adaptation into
individual official community
plans, departmental & agency plans & programs

Online “planners interface” to climate change information in
development. Contact jhill@cityspaces.ca
PCIC online interface was developed for
impacts researchers
Assessment of vulnerabilities, risks,
impacts, opportunities

Comprehensive
assessments involved:






Analysis of current conditions &
stressors
Review of historical climate
trends
Regional climate change
projections
Case studies of recent extreme
weather events
Analysis of likely impacts by
sector
Some used formal risk
assessment to prioritize risks
Source Jennifer Penney Clean Air Partnership
Potential for spruce bark beetle
outbreaks in colder areas of range
Future Streamflow
Comparison of Historical Variability and
Projected Change
tmurdock@alumni.uvic.c
a
Source: PacificClimate.org
Trevor Murdock
Projecting streamflow using diagnostic
hydrological model (VIC)
1. Columbia Basin UW/DOE
2. BC Environment RFC
Mountain Pine Beetle Study
3. BCH Peace River Basin
Climate Change Study
3
2
1
VIC Driving Data, Time
Series Average 1961 – 1990
Climatology, Precipitation
(mm)
 summer cooling  winter heating

Summer cooling
baseline
Winter heating
baseline
high change
scenario
high change
scenario
heating & cooling
energy cost
scenarios for 2080
(Royal BC Museum
2005)
Adaptation & Green Buildings
 Greener Buildings
• Green Buildings rarely consider local climate, and do not
consider future climate
“increasing the attic space insulation from RSI 7.7 to RSI 9.0 in
colder areas of the province (4500 and greater degree days)”
• Highest energy efficiency over lifespan of buildings can
only be achieved by considering reduced winter heating
demand, increased summer cooling demand, and changes
to precipitation
•