Engineering Economic Analysis Chapter 15 Selection of a MARR 3/16/2016 rd 1 Sources of Capital Money Generated from the Operations of the Firm Profit Depreciation External Sources of Money Loans Mortgage Bonds Choice of Source of Funds 3/16/2016 rd 2 Preference of Capital Companies prefer Internal to External financing and debt to equity when external financing. You need to raise $1M. Debt or Equity or does it matter? Doesn't matter for fair valued assets. 3/16/2016 rd 3 Equity Financing Equity financing uses retained earnings raised from issuance of stock to finance capital investments. A company needs $10M and decides to sell its common stock. Current price is $30/share, but investment bankers feel the price of $28/share is better because of decreasing demand. Flotation costs (banker's fee, etching fee, lawyers’ fee) is 6% of selling price; thus $26.32 How many shares to sell to raise $10M? Let X be the number of shares sold. Flotation cost is 0.06 * 28 * X = 1.68X Sales proceeds – flotation cost = Net proceeds 28X – 1.68X = $10M => X = 379,940 shares Flotation cost for issuing common stock is 1.68 * 379,940 = $638,300. 3/16/2016 rd 4 Debt Financing Debt financing uses money raised through loans by an issuance of bonds to finance a capital investment. Task is to raise $10M by debt financing. Bond financing ~ floatation cost is 1.8% of the $10M issue with face value of $1000 sold at discount $985. Bond pays annual interest of 12%. Term loan ~ $10M bank loan secured at 11%/year for 5 years. How many $1000 par value bonds to raise $10M? 10,338.38 What is annual payments on bond and what is annual payment on loan? $1,240,605.60 To net $10M; $10M/(1 – 0.018) = $10,183,300 paying $183,300 in floatation costs. But bond sold at 1.5% discount, for bond financing Total number of bonds sold $10,183,300/$985 = 10,338.38 bonds Annual interest is $10,338,380 * 0.12 = $1,240,605.60 paid each year. Term loan ~ $10M(A/P, 11%, 5) = $2,705,703.10 annual payment. 3/16/2016 rd 5 MARR Factors Project risk ~ higher perceived risk, higher MARR Investment opportunity ~ MARR may be lowered to encourage investment. Flexibility is important. Tax structure ~ higher corporate taxes => higher MARR Limited capital ~ tends to increase MARR. Opportunity cost Market rates at other corporations ~ Keep in step. Before-tax MARR = (1 – tax rate) * after-tax MARR 3/16/2016 rd 6 Cost of Borrowed Money Interest Rate Prime Financial strength of borrower Duration Cost of Capital Common stock RoR Mortgage bonds Bank loans 3/16/2016 rd 7 Weighted Average Cost of Capital WACC= (equity fraction)(cost of equity capital) + (debt fraction)(cost of debt capital) where equity capital can be preferred stock, common stock, or retained earnings. 3/16/2016 rd 8 Example 15-1 ROR 9% 7 11 Annual $1.8M 1.4 6.6 $9.8 M $20 million Bank loan 20 Mortgage bonds 60 Common stock $100 million raised After Tax analysis: Assume tax rate at 40% Bank loan 0.09(1 – 0.4) = 5.4% Mortgage bonds 0.07(1 – 0.4) = 4.2% Dividends and retained earnings are not tax deductible. $20M(5.4%) + 20M(4.2%) + 60M(11%) = $8.52M Cost of capital = 8.52M/100M = 8.52% 3/16/2016 rd 9 Table 15-1 Budget $1.2M RoR's Project Cost ($K) Estimated RoR % 45 1 150 30 2 50 45 3 50 38 4 100 40 35 5 200 35 30 6 100 28 7 200 18 25 8 250 25 20 9 300 20 18 10 300 10 15 11 400 15 10 12 3/16/2016 Unlimited 8 rd 40 38 Opportunity Cost 28 8 10 Selecting a MARR Cost of Borrowed Money Cost of Capital Opportunity Cost MARR should be the largest rate of the above costs. Now we need to hedge for uncertainty in the estimates. Probability => Risk 3/16/2016 rd 11 Problem 15-2 A B C First cost $100 $50 $25 UAB 16.27 9.96 5.96 IRR 10% 15% 20% Express the three mutually exclusive alternatives with10-year lives over an unspecified MARR. B-C (UIRR 25 4 10) 9.61% A-B (UIRR 50 6.31 10) 4.47% A-C (UIRR 75 10.31 10) 6.25% 0 < MARR < 4.47 Choose A 4.47 < MARR < 9.61 Choose B 9.61 < MARR < 20 Choose C MARR > 20% Choose Do Nothing 3/16/2016 rd 12 Example 15-3 n A B 0 -80 -80 1-10 11-20 10 20 13.86 10 14.05% 0 0 15.48% 10% 28.83 28.83 15% -5 NPW 1.97 NPW B–A $6.97 At a MARR of 10% both are 28.83, both equally desirable, but B is believed to have greater risk. Thus choose A. At MARR 15%, A has negative return, but B is positive; thus choose B. 3/16/2016 rd 13 Problem 15-7 Budget = $70K Project First Cost 1 $20K 2 30K 3 10K 4 5K 5 25K 6 15K 7 40K Benefit $11K 14K 6K 2.4K 13K 7K 21K IRR (%) (UIRR 20 11 3 0) 29.92 (UIRR 30 14 3 0) 18.91 (UIRR 10 6 3 0) 36.31 (UIRR 5 2.4 3 0) 20.71 (UIRR 25 13 3 0) 26.01 (UIRR 15 7 3 0) 18.91 (UIRR 40 21 3 0) 26.67 3 1 7 5 4 2 6 10 20 40 25 5 30 15 The opportunity cost of capital is (first reject project 5) at 26.1% 3/16/2016 rd 14 Problem 15-8 with $500K Budget Project First Cost UAB Life IRR 1 2 $200K $50K 15 (UIRR 200 50 15) 24.00% 2 5 300K 70K 10 (UIRR 300 70 10) 19.36 3 1 100K 40K 5 4 3 50K 12.5K 10 (UIRR 50 12.5 10) 21.41 5 7 250K 75K 5 (UIRR 250 75 5) 6 4 150K 32K 20 (UIRR 150 32 20) 20.85 7 6 400K 125K 5 (UIRR 400 125 5) 16.99 3/16/2016 (UIRR 100 40 5) rd 28.65 15.24 15 Problem 15-9 Project First Cost UAB Life IRR E 40,000 11,933 5 15.00% H 60,000 12692 8 13.44% C 30,000 9878 4 12.00% G 35,000 6794 8 10.97% I 75,000 14058 8 10.00% B 20,000 6173 4 9.00% D 25,000 6261 5 8.00% A 15,000 4429 4 7.01% F 50,000 11,550 5 5.00% Budget = 3/16/2016 E2 = RATE(life, UAB, -first cost) MARR 260,000 for first 6 projects. rd 16 Problem 16-11 Parabolic Benefit/Cost equation: PWB2 – 22PWC + 44 = 0; find PWC for optimal size project. Let y = PWB and x = PWC. Then y2 - 22x + 44 = 0; Solve for slope and set slope to 1. 2yy' - 22 = 0; y' = 11/y = 1 => y = 11 and x = 7.5 112 -22x +44 = 0 => x = 7.5 = PWC 3/16/2016 rd 17 Problem 16-26 MARR = 12% A B C $9500 $18,500 $22,000 Annual savings 3200 5000 9800 Annual costs 1000 2750 6400 Salvage value 6000 4200 14000 15 15 15 First Cost Life Conventional B/C and incremental analysis C-A PW numerator PW denominator B/C ratio 3/16/2016 A *** B C $21,794.77 $34,054.32 $66,746.47 152,14.69 36,462.55 63,031.79 0.93 1.06 1.43 rd 18 Determining the MARR Suppose cost of capital is 10% (borrowing rate) and lending rate is 6% (opportunity cost) with budget at) $40K b) $60K and c) $0K, determine MARR using ranked projects by their IRR. a) With $40K budget, invest in Project First UAB IRR (%) Cost 1,2,3,4. MARR = 8%. b) With $60K, invest in projects 1 10K $12K 20 1,2,3,4,5. Lend $10K at 6%. 2 10K $11.5K 15 MARR = 6%. 3 10K $11K 10 c) Borrow for projects 1 & 2. 4 10K $10.8K 8 MARR = 10% 5 10K $10.7K 7 lending < MARR < borrowing 6 10K $10.4K 4 3/16/2016 rd 19 Example Calculate the after-tax cost of debt for the following: a) Interest rate is 12%; tax rate is 25% ¾ * 12 = 9% b) Interest rate is 14%; tax rate is 34% 0.66 *14 = 9.24% c) Interest rate is 15%; tax rate is 40% 0.6 * 15 = 9% 3/16/2016 rd 20 Example N A B C 0 -$2000 -$3000 -$1000 1 1000 4000 1400 -$1000 2 1000 -100 1090 3 1000 IRR (%) 23.38 32.45 9 33.33 D With budget at $3500 and lend out remaining funds at 10%, and goal is to maximize future worth at n = 3. FWA(10%) = $648, FWB(10%) = $847; FWC(10%) = $190.08; FWD(10%) = -$11 A & C for $838 + 500(F/P, 10%, 3) = $1503.58 B 847 + 500(F/P, 10%, 3) = $1512.50 3/16/2016 rd 21 Example You need $10M in capital. Capital stock sales $5M at 13.7% Use of retained earnings $2M at 8.9% Debt financing with bonds $3M at 7.5%. Historical D-E mix of 40% from debt costing 7.5% and 60% from equity costing 10%. Calculate historical WACC and current WACC. Historical: 0.6(10) + 0.4(7.5) = 9% Current: (5/10)(13.7) + (2/10)(8.9) + (3/10)(7.5) = 10.88%. After-tax analysis is appropriate. 3/16/2016 rd 22 Example Debt Capital You need $10M in debt capital by issuing 5,000 $1K 10-year bonds paying 8%/year with 50% tax rate. Bonds are discounted 2% for quick sale. Ignore flotation costs. Compute cost of debt capital before and after taxes. 980 = 80(P/A, i%, 10) + 1000(P/F, i%, 10) (UIRR 980 80 10 1000) 8.3% Before tax (UIRR 980 40 10 1000) 4.24% After-tax 3/16/2016 rd 23 Debt Capital You buy a $20K 10-year asset by putting $10K down and borrowing $10K at 6%/year by paying the interest each year and the $10K in year 10. Tax rate is 42%. Compute after tax cost of debt capital. Deduction for interest is $600 at tax rate 42% leaving ATCF 600(1 – 0.42) = $348 (UIRR 10000 348 10 10000) 3.48%. 3/16/2016 rd 24 Inflation 1. A machine costing $2550 4 years ago now costs $3930 with general inflation at 7% per year. Calculate the true percentage increase in the cost of the machine. a) 14.95% b) 54.12% c) 35.11% d) 7% e) 17.58% 2. If you want a 7% inflation-free return on your investment with f = 9% per year, your actual interest rate must be a) 16% b) 20% c) 12% d) 15% e) 14% 3. I want $25K per year forever in R$ when I die for my family. Insurer offers 7% per year while inflation is expected to be 4% per year. First payment is 1 year after my death. How much insurance do I need? a) $866K b) $357K c) $625K d) $841K 3/16/2016 rd 25 Cost of Capital 250M shares priced at $29.30 20M preferred stock priced at $40.50 150M selling at $101.75 per 100 500M loan at 4.5% interest. Source Amount Price Total Weight Common stock 250M 29.30 $7,235E6 83.36% Preferred stock 20M 40.50 $810M 9.22% Bond 150M $1.0175 $152,625K 1.74% Loan $500M $1.00 $500M 5.69% $8.787.625 100% 3/16/2016 rd 26