Thinking long term, managing short term Strategies Seminar Technology Update Scott Smith, GVNW March 21, 2013 www.gvnw.com Thinking long term, managing short term Technology Topics • Network Trends – What are customers asking for now? – What will customers be asking for in the future? – What will the FCC require you to provide to retain support? • What should your network evolution plan strive for? • How u goin 2 pay 4 it? www.gvnw.com 2 Thinking long term, managing short term Network Trends • What will users pay for? • Customers do not care how they are connected, but want to always be connected – Could be DSL, FTTH, Cable, LTE, 3G, Wifi etc • Customers want all their devices connected – Smartphones, tablets, laptops, TV’s, OTT devices, automobiles, medical devices, home monitoring www.gvnw.com 3 Thinking long term, managing short term NTCA’s New Edge 3/18/13 • Nielsen data released last week reveals that five-million households have replaced TVs with tablets, computers and other devices. This represents a two-million household increase since 2007… • Content and the ability to bend time are attractions to online streaming or downloads… www.gvnw.com 4 Thinking long term, managing short term Network Trends • Interconnectability will need to be easy, transparent and cost effective – Devices need to select best connection methods without user intervention • Devices will need to talk across platforms – Landline, cell phone, PC, laptop, tablet etc. www.gvnw.com 5 Thinking long term, managing short term NY Times 3/20/13--Home Automation • According to the Remodeling Futures program, as of 2011, nearly half of all United States home improvement spending came from homeowners over 55. • “If Grandma has a system where she can see who is at the front door via video, can unlock the front door remotely, can control her heating, cooling, window shades and lighting from a tablet, that is an enormous step for safety and independence” www.gvnw.com 6 Thinking long term, managing short term Applications are cross-platform enabled • Apps are available on many platforms: – Facebook, Mapping, social media, news, email, iTunes… – The “Cloud” is enabling the sharing of data and applications across multiple platforms – Devices run most all these apps • Devices will need to be enabled via lowest cost access medium the user has available www.gvnw.com 7 Thinking long term, managing short term Carrier Value Add • Your biggest value-add is your access options – Google, the cloud, Facebook, Skype, IP Voice, Netflix, all need your pipe to work – Fatter pipe requirements are a continuing must have as end user habits and expectations change • • • • Netflix, OTT video Video conferencing Web browsing Multiple devices within the home all required bandwidth (tablets, smartphones, wifi, TV’s, home monitoring..) Your pipe is the highway all these devices travel most on! www.gvnw.com 8 Thinking long term, managing short term Network Commonalities/Realities • End users will always want more bandwidth as their user habits change • Internet Protocol (IP) is the underlying/common thread to all current and future business models • TDM is going to die • IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem) Platforms and soft switch capabilities allow carriers to provide most IP based services using a single platform www.gvnw.com 9 Thinking long term, managing short term Migrating to IP-Based Network • TDM is going to die. – FCC has a working group set up to study how to endof-life the TDM network – All major carriers have indicated a future away from TDM based networks – Ethernet has been shown to cost a fraction of what TDM costs today for a given amount of bandwidth – Ethernet is based on IP, so it has some natural synergies www.gvnw.com 10 Thinking long term, managing short term Migrating to IP-Based Network – IP Voice services are the direction most large carriers are heading • Single IP network can handle both voice and data needs. No need for a separate TDM network • QoS can be introduced to handle voice clarity • VoLTE will further drive the nail into the TDM based voice coffin • IP Based platforms enable cross device access and applications to be enabled, opening service opportunities www.gvnw.com 11 Thinking long term, managing short term Migrating to IP Based Networks with fat pipe capabilities– Some issues • Can be a gargantuan task of not only moving from current infrastructure to one requiring fatter pipes, but also upgrading to an IP based platform as well (especially for IP voice and away from TDM based voice) • Current recovery mechanisms do not incent RLEC to move to IP -much of your funding is based on TDM technology requirements • FCC Orders are unclear about what they will pay for beyond 4/1Mbps requirements for the last mile • Regulated vs Non-regulated services are still ambiguous. Does VoIP stay a regulated services, or does it become an information service? www.gvnw.com 12 Thinking long term, managing short term Migrating to IP Based Networks with fat pipe capabilities– Some issues • ILEC’s have obligations to legacy rules • Current FCC rules are circuit switch based – will they strap us with unfunded mandates? Regulations should be on service delivery, not the technology it is delivered on • Still limited DSL Only (Naked DSL) tariffs or offerings • No IP-IP Interconnection Rules – Bill and Keep is what the FCC would love • Do you have a financial incentive today to stay with TDM? • Middle mile recovery still undecided www.gvnw.com 13 Thinking long term, managing short term Network Recommendations • You must be able to provide at least 4/1Mbps if a customer reasonably asks for it • Any new planning should focus on IP based platforms • Sharing platforms with “like” companies can have some real advantages (sharing in IMS platform, or soft switch can reduce costs) www.gvnw.com 14 Thinking long term, managing short term Network Recommendations • The robustness of your pipe is your biggest value add. Any “other” business offering legitimacy will need to be business modeled on a carrier by carrier basis • Competition is not standing still. You will not be able to capture all users in your area, so plan accordingly • 5 Year plans should include plans to migrate from TDM to IP Based platforms www.gvnw.com 15