Corporate Strategy Fall 2007 Session 3 - Lecture 2 Diversification and Performance Dr. Olivier Furrer Office: TvA 1-1-11, Phone: 361 30 79 e-mail: o.furrer@fm.ru.nl Office Hours: only by appointment Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 1 Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 2 Firms Vary by Degree of Diversification Low Levels of Diversification > 95% of revenues from a single Single-business business unit Dominant-business Between 70% and 95% of revenues from a single business unit Moderate to High Levels of Diversification <70% of revenues from a single Related-Diversified business unit Businesses share product, techno-logical or distribution linkages High Levels of Diversification Business units not closely related Unrelated-Diversified Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 Ref.: Rumelt, 1974 3 Firms Vary by Degree of Diversification 0.0 Related Ratio: Proportion of a firm’s revenues derived from its largest single group of related businesses. Unrelated Business 0.7 DominantUnrelated Single Business 1.0 Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 Related Ratio Specialization Ratio: Proportion of a firm’s revenues derived from its largest single business. Related Business Dominant Business 0.95 1.0 0.0 0.7 Specialization Ratio Ref.: Rumelt, 1974 4 Types of Diversification Strategies Low Levels of Diversification Moderate to High Levels of Diversification A A Single Business A B B Dominant Business A C Related constrained B C Related linked Very High Levels of Diversification A B C Unrelated Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 Ref.: adapted from Rumelt, 1974 5 Reasons for Diversification Motives to Enhance Strategic Competitiveness Resources Economies of Scope Market Power Financial Economies Incentives Managerial Motives Causing Value Reduction Managerial Motives Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 Diversifying Managerial Employment Risk Increasing Managerial Compensation Incentives and Resources with Neutral Effects of Strategic Competitiveness Anti-Trust Regulation Tax Laws Low Performance Uncertain Future Cash Flows Firm Risk Reduction Tangible Resources Intangible Resources Ref.: Hoskisson and Hitt, 1990 6 Summary Model of the Relationship between Firm Performance and Diversification Resources Capital Market Intervention and Market for Managerial Talent Incentives Diversification Strategy Ref.: Hoskisson and Hitt, 1990 Firm Performance Managerial Motives Internal Governance Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 Strategy Implementation 7 Adding Value by Diversification Diversification most effectively adds value by either of two mechanisms By developing economies of scope between business units in the firms which leads to synergistic benefits By developing market power which lead to greater returns Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 8 Alternative Diversification Strategies Related Diversification Strategies 1 Sharing Activities 2 Transferring Core Competencies Unrelated Diversification Strategies 3 Efficient Internal Capital Market Allocation Efficient Internal Capital Market Allocation 4 Restructuring Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 9 Sharing Activities Key Characteristics Sharing Activities often lowers costs or raises differentiation Example: Using a common physical distribution system and sales force such as Procter & Gamble’s disposable diaper and paper towel divisions Sharing Activities can lower costs if it: * * * Achieves economies of scale Boosts efficiency of utilization Helps move more rapidly down Learning Curve Example: General Electric’s costs to advertise, sell and service major appliances are spread over many different products Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 10 Sharing Activities Key Characteristics Sharing Activities can enhance potential for or reduce the cost of differentiation Example: Shared order processing system may allow new features customers value or make more advance remote sensing technology available Must involve activities that are crucial to competitive advantage Example: Procter & Gamble’s sharing of sales and physical distribution for disposable diapers and paper towels is effective because these items are so bulky and costly to ship Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 11 Sharing Activities Assumptions Strong sense of corporate identity Clear corporate mission that emphasizes the importance of integrating business units Incentive system that rewards more than just business unit performance Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 12 Transferring Core Competencies Key Characteristics Exploits Interrelationships among divisions Start with Value Chain analysis Identify ability to transfer skills or expertise among similar value chains Exploit ability to share activities Two firms can share the same sales force, logistics network or distribution channels Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 13 Transferring Core Competencies Assumptions Transferring Core Competencies leads to competitive advantage only if the similarities among business units meet the following conditions: Activities involved in the businesses are similar enough that sharing expertise is meaningful Transfer of skills involves activities which are important to competitive advantage The skills transferred represent significant sources of cooperative advantage for the receiving unit Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 14 Efficient Internal Capital Market Allocation Key Characteristics Firms pursuing this strategy frequently diversify by acquisition: • Acquire sound, attractive companies • Acquired units are autonomous • Acquiring corporation supplies needed capital • Portfolio managers transfer resources from units that generate cash to those with high growth potential and substantial cash needs • Add professional management & control to sub-units • Sub-unit managers compensation based on unit results Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 15 Efficient Internal Capital Market Allocation Assumptions Managers have more detailed knowledge of firm relative to outside investors Firm need not risk competitive edge by disclosing sensitive competitive information to investors Firm can reduce risk by allocating resources among diversified businesses, although shareholders can generally diversify more economically on their own Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 16 Portfolio Planning • Portfolio Planning under the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) matrix: – Identifying the Strategic Business Units (SBUs) by business area or product market – Assessing each SBU’s prospects (using relative market share and industry growth rate) relative to other SBUs in the portfolio. – Developing strategic objectives for each SBU. Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 17 The BCG Matrix Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 Ref: Adapted from The Boston Consulting Group, Inc., Perspectives, No. 66, “The Product Portfolio.” 1970. 18 The Strategic Implications of the BCG Matrix • Stars – Aggressive investments to support continued growth and consolidate competitive position of firms. • Question marks – Selective investments; divestiture for weak firms or those with uncertain prospects and lack of strategic fit. • Cash cows – Investments sufficient to maintain competitive position. Cash surpluses used in developing and nurturing stars and selected question mark firms. • Dogs – Divestiture, harvesting, or liquidation and industry exit. Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 19 Limitations on Portfolio Planning • Flaws in portfolio planning: – The BCG model is simplistic; considers only two competitive environment factors– relative market share and industry growth rate. – High relative market share is no guarantee of a cost savings or competitive advantage. – Low relative market share is not always an indicator of competitive failure or lack of profitability. – Multifactor models (e.g., the McKinsey matrix) are better though imperfect. Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 20 The McKinsey Matrix Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 21 Restructuring Key Characteristics Seek out undeveloped, sick or threatened organizations or industries Parent company (acquirer) intervenes and frequently: - Changes sub-unit management team - Shifts strategy - Infuses firm with new technology - Enhances discipline by changing control systems - Divests part of firm - Makes additional acquisitions to achieve critical mass Frequently sell unit after making one-time changes since parent no longer adds value to ongoing operations Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 22 Restructuring Assumptions Requires keen management insight in selecting firms with depressed values or unforeseen potential Must do more than restructure companies Need to initiate restructuring of industries to create a more attractive environment Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 23 Incentives to Diversify External Incentives Relaxation of Anti-Trust regulation allows more related acquisitions than in the past Before 1986, higher taxes on dividends favored spending retained earnings on acquisitions After 1986, firms made fewer acquisitions with retained earnings, shifting to the use of debt to take advantage of tax deductible interest payments Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 24 Performance Diversification and Firm Performance Dominant Business Related Constrained Unrelated Business Level of Diversification Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 Ref.: Palich, Cardinal and Miller, 2000 25 Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 26 Incentives to Diversify Internal Incentives Poor performance may lead some firms to diversify to attempt to achieve better returns Firms may diversify to balance uncertain future cash flows Firm may diversify into different businesses in order to reduce risk Managers often have incentives to diversify in order to increase their compensation and reduce employment risk, although effective governance mechanisms may restrict such abuses Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 27 Issues to Consider Prior to Diversification What Resources, Capabilities and Core Competencies do we possess that would allow us to outperform competitors? What Core Competencies must we possess to succeed in a new product or geographic market? Is it possible to leapfrog competitors? Will diversification break up capabilities and competencies that should be kept together? Will we only be a player in the new product or geographic market or will we emerge as a winner? What can the firm learn through its diversification? Is it organized properly to acquire such knowledge? Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 28 Alternative Diversification Strategies Related Diversification Strategies 1 Sharing Activities 2 Transferring Core Competencies Unrelated Diversification Strategies 3 Efficient Internal Capital Market Allocation Efficient Internal Capital Market Allocation 4 Restructuring Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 29 Corporate Strategy and Shareholder Value Creation M&A Wave Era Corporate Role Portfolio Management (1960s, 1970s) (1980s) Transfer of Skills / Sharing Activities (1990s) Active: Surgeon; Asset striping Active: Coach & Architect Focus of Strategy Business Portfolio; Conglomerates Coordination of businesses; Divestitures Sharing of knowledge; Relatedness hypothesis Operational Approach Higher operating cash Coordination of flows resources; Economies of scale and scope Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 Passive: Banker/Investor; Antitrust law Restructuring Lowering costs of capital, increasing financial cash flows; managerial synergies Source: Business Horizons, January-February 1997, p. 34. 30 Corporate Strategy and Shareholder Value Creation M&A Wave Era Results Portfolio Management (1960s, 1970s) Restructuring Efficient markets; Conglomerate discounts: the whole less valuable than the sum of its parts Dept financed M&A by raiders beneficial, full-blown M&A less beneficial Many distressed businesses result in widespread divesture Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 (1980s) Partly beneficial, but “deptism” occurs, limiting ultimate success Transfer of Skills / Sharing Activities (1990s) Potential for creation of value high, postM&A management crucial (implementation failures, excess bidding) The brave new world of corporate synergy? Source: Business Horizons, January-February 1997, p. 34. 31 Level of Diversification 1980 1990 2000 Focused = 95% or more of sales within main industry. Dominant Business = Between 80% and 95% of sales within main industry. Diversified = Between 20% and 40% of sales outside main industry. Highly Diversified = More than 40% of sales outside main industry. Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 Reference: Franko, 2004 32 How Parents Create Value Stand-alone influence Linkage influence Central functions and services Corporate development Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 Source: Goold, Campbell and Alexander, 1994 33 Summary Model of the Relationship between Firm Performance and Diversification Resources Capital Market Intervention and Market for Managerial Talent Incentives Diversification Strategy Ref.: Hoskisson and Hitt, 1990 Firm Performance Managerial Motives Internal Governance Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 Strategy Implementation 34 Summary • Rumelt’s Strategy, Structure and Economic Performance (1974) represents a landmark in the study of corporate strategy. • His key finding was the superiority of related over unrelated diversification. • Empirical studies of the relationship between diversification strategy and performance initially confirmed the superiority of related diversification over unrelated diversification (Bettis, 1981; Christensen and Montgomery, 1981; Rumelt, 1982: Lecraw, 1984). Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 35 Summary • However, as the volume of empirical work on the relationship between diversification strategy and performance grew, the findings became more inconsistent. • Some studies found no significant relationship between relatedness in diversification and profitability (Grant et al., 1988) • While other studies found unrelated diversification to be more profitable than related diversification (Michel and Shaked, 1984; Luffman and Reed, 1984; Lubatkin, 1987). • Some other studies observed a curvilinear relationship (Grant et al, 1988; Lubatkin and Chatterjee, 1994; Palich et al. 2000). Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 36 Summary • Recent investigations of the relationship between corporate strategy and performance have featured more refined methodologies. • These have deployed more sophisticated measures of diversification (Hoskisson et al. 1993; Nayyar, 1992; Robins and Wiersema, 1997) and the use of a wider range of control variables. • Particular attention has been devoted to the interactions between corporate strategy and industry characteristics (Montgomery and Wernerfelt, 1991; Stimpert and Duhaime, 1997) in addition to the links between resources and diversification (Chatterjee and Wernerfelt, 1991). Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 37 Summary • In other areas of corporate strategy, the picture is less confusing. Greater consistency found in relation to vertical integration and international diversification. • In relation to vertical integration, Rumelt’s (1974) fining hat vertically integrated firms underperform both specialized and diversified firms has been supported by subsequent evidence. • In relation to international diversification, multinationals have tended to outperform nationally focused firms (Grant, 1987; Grant et al., 1988; Hitt et al., 1997) Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 38 Summary • Recent evidence concerning the relationship between diversification and performance includes the consequences of refocusing initiatives. • The results of the divestments of diversified businesses by conglomerates suggest that narrowing business scope leads to increased profitability and increased stock market valuation. • The stock market’s verdict on diversification is unambiguous. The high price-earning ratios attached to conglomerates during the 1960s have been replaced by a ‘conglomerate discount’. • The result was that diversified companies came under attack from leveraged-buyout specialists seeking to add value by dismembering these companies. Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 39 Conclusion • The main conclusion that arises from the empirical literature is that there is no simple and consistent relationship between diversification and firm performance. • In answering the question: ‘Does diversification enhance firm performance?’ the most we can say is: ‘It all depends’. Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 40 Next Session: Case Study 1 Microsoft’s Diversification Strategy 1. What opportunities and challenges await Microsoft in markets in which it did not have proprietary advantage? 2. What specific strategies did it have to adopt to capitalize on the opportunities and counter the challenges? 3. How best could Microsoft execute its diversification strategy? Session 03 © Furrer 2002-2008 41