• Agriculture
• Industry
– Regional variations in input and output in these
sectors
Regional Patterns in Agriculture
Le ve l s and Growth of O utput Major 43 C rops (at 1990-93 C onstant Pri ce s)
St at e
Average Value of Out put (Rs Million)
1962-65
Haryana
16303.27
Himachal Pradesh 2487.94
Jammu and Kashmir2 428.39
Punjab
22078.87
Ut t ar Pradesh
93627.51
1970-73
23444.90
3233.31
3690.43
36897.73
114460.68
1980-83
31555.32
3556.61
5191.71
58654.10
150372.86
Per Cent Annual Compound Growt h Rat e*
1992-95
54992.26
4615.92
5400.74
92549.04
210249.47
(A)
4.65
3.33
5.37
6.63
2.54
North-west region
136925.97 181727.06 249330.60 367807.43 3.60
Assam
15038.60
17419.20
22964.29
29653.92 1.85
Bihar
39332.22
42992.89
41275.92
52833.26 1.12
Orissa
24391.37
26389.44
34267.97
39316.62 0.99
West Bengal 32535.94
39230.06
41979.78
78813.53 2.37
Eastern region111298.14 126031.59 140487.96 200617.34 1.57
Gujarat
33174.29
38208.81
51959.23
65591.11 1.78
Madhya Pradesh
48072.93
56214.33
63846.36 110907.96 1.97
Maharashtra 52069.34
38697.71
73149.00 102677.41 -3.64
Rajasthan
24153.65
33787.85
38276.32
68884.69 4.29
Central Region157470.21 166908.69 227230.91 348061.17 0.73
Andhra Pradesh49877.56
53717.65
76565.78 110201.62 0.93
Karnataka
33176.34
40854.31
51372.41
81473.82 2.64
Kerala
25168.76
34678.10
31651.54
41296.50 4.09
Tamil Nadu
47006.87
58441.34
55208.95
94652.60 2.76
Southern region
155229.52 187691.39 214798.67 327624.53 2.40
All India
565642.79 666706.42 843474.10 1260430.47 2.08
C V (percentage)
85.46
(B)
3.02
0.96
3.47
4.74
2.77
( C)
4.74
2.20
0.33
3.87
2.83
(D)
4.14
2.08
2.70
4.89
2.73
3.21 3.29
2.80
2.15
-0.41
2.08
2.65
1.15
0.68
5.39
1.09
3.01
3.12
1.96
1.28
4.71
6.57
2.87
1.26
5.02
3.13
3.62
3.61
3.08
2.32
3.92
-0.91
2.24
-0.57
4.59
1.36
3.58
2.38
3.40
86.43 45.30
3.35
2.29
0.99
1.60
2.99
1.98
2.30
2.83
2.29
3.56
2.68
2.68
3.04
1.66
2.36
2.52
2.71
34.17
Regional Patterns in Agriculture
Incremental Value of Output and Its Per Cent Contribution by States and Regions during 1962-65,1
Average Value
Percentage Distribution of Incremental Value of Output
State
of Output 1960s 1970s Over 1960s 1980s Over 1970s1990s Over1980s 1990s Over 1960s
Haryana
16303.27
7.07
4.59
5.62
5.57
Himachal Pradesh
2487.94
0.74
0.18
0.25
0.31
Jammu and Kashmir 2428.39
1.25
0.85
0.05
0.43
Punjab
22078.87
14.66
12.31
8.13
10.14
Uttar Pradesh
93627.51
20.61
20.32
14.36
16.79
North-west region 136925.97
44.33
38.24
28.41
33.23
Assam
15038.60
2.36
3.14
1.60
2.10
Bihar
39332.22
3.62
-0.97
2.77
1.94
Orissa
24391.37
1.98
4.46
1.21
2.15
West Bengal
32535.94
6.62
1.56
8.83
6.66
Eastern region
111298.14
14.58
8.18
14.42
12.86
Gujarat
33174.29
4.98
7.78
3.27
4.67
Madhya Pradesh
48072.93
8.06
4.32
11.29
9.04
Maharashtra
52069.34
-13.23
19.49
7.08
7.28
Rajasthan
24153.65
9.53
2.54
7.34
6.44
Central Region
157470.21
9.34
34.13
28.98
27.43
Andhra Pradesh
49877.56
3.80
12.93
8.07
8.68
Karnataka
33176.34
7.60
5.95
7.22
6.95
Kerala
25168.76
9.41
-1.71
2.31
2.32
Tamil Nadu
47006.87
11.31
-1.83
9.46
6.86
Southern region 155229.52
32.12
15.33
27.06
24.81
All India
565642.79
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
C V (percentage)
116.93
117.96
68.88
69.98
Regional Patterns in Agriculture
•
Period 1 –
–
–
–
–
–
•
Period 2 –
–
–
–
–
•
•
HVY seed and technology initially restricted to Punjab, Haryana and western UP.
also the wheat-growing region.
not initially successful for rice cultivation.
led to widening of regional disparities in the India in the agricultural output
Nearly 44 percent of the incremental output in the period 70s to that of the 60s occurred in the
northwest region. , While southern region contributed for 32 percent of the incremental output
during the same period. (Table below)
extension of new technology from wheat to rice
and its spread from Punjab and Haryana to the eastern UP and the rice producing states of the
south.
Eastern region declined because of the petering out of the HYV wheat cultivation in the region.
This can be seen in W.Bengal and Bihar.
Wide fluctuations in the central region, mainly due to good monsoons of the period in the
region.
Thus in the table below it shows the decline of share of the incremental output of the
eastern regions, north western region and the southern region, and the rise of the central
region.
Period 3 –
–
–
–
Period of turning point in Indian agriculture.
highest growth rate during this phase, at the rate of 3.40%.
And the growth has been more or less regionally distributed in the period.
• Growth of output
– due to growth of yield,
– growth of area
– and changes in the cropping pattern.
Regional Patterns in Agriculture
State and Regionwise Levels and Growth of Crop Yield during 1962-65,1970-73,1980-83 and 1992-95 (At 1990-93 C
Average Value of Yield (Rs Hectare)
Per Cent Annual Compound Growth Rate*
State
1962-65
1970-73
1980-83
1992-95
(A)
(B)
( C)
(D)
Haryana
3927.21
5090.01
6229.13
10128.73
3.30
2.04
4.13
3.21
Himachal Pradesh
3048.15
3733.76
3917.69
5195.63
2.57
0.48
2.38
1.79
Jammu and Kashmir
2986.95
4481.40
5758.75
5567.01
5.20
2.54
-0.28
2.10
Punjab
5395.62
7476.29
9707.65
13597.22
4.16
2.65
2.85
3.13
Uttar Pradesh 3970.10
4589.98
5805.13
8656.20
1.83
2.38
3.39
2.63
North-west region
4092.75
5024.54
6422.63
9582.50
2.60
2.49
3.39
2.88
Assam
5727.97
6241.20
7906.69
8196.82
1.08
1.02
1.44
1.20
Bihar
3679.55
4009.73
4048.56
5678.08
1.08
0.10
2.86
1.46
Orissa
4114.37
4072.70
4374.84
5979.16
-0.13
0.72
2.64
1.25
West Bengal 5074.57
5614.56
5943.81
9958.45
1.27
0.57
4.39
2.27
Eastern region4338.30
4671.31
4944.00
7318.50
0.93
0.57
3.32
1.76
Gujarat
3673.01
4326.57
5693.43
7460.09
2.07
2.78
2.28
2.39
Madhya Pradesh
2603.49
2835.86
3069.65
4773.12
1.07
0.80
3.75
2.04
Maharashtra 2898.61
2343.57
3794.68
5176.94
-2.62
4.94
2.62
1.95
Rajasthan
1740.45
2217.10
2334.77
3715.22
3.07
0.52
3.95
2.56
Central Region
2653.78
2763.12
3464.09
4943.84
0.51
2.29
3.01
2.10
Andhra Pradesh4064.96
4363.05
6276.23
9390.64
0.89
3.70
3.41
2.83
Karnataka
3207.56
4267.23
4989.92
6969.70
3.63
1.58
2.82
2.62
Kerala
11375.65
12957.56
12333.85
15625.96
1.64
-0.49
1.99
1.06
Tamil Nadu
6689.49
7899.75
8756.47
14073.94
2.10
1.03
4.03
2.51
Southern region
4873.34
5872.68
6848.20
9990.63
2.36
1.55
3.20
2.42
All India
3738.19
4256.79
5090.42
7388.05
1.64
1.80
3.15
2.30
C V (percentage) 56.86
58.19
48.12
46.30
91.34
85.20
39.05
29.26
Regional Patterns in Agriculture
•
•
– Significant rise in yield of some of the crops like rice and wheat after mid 1960s following
the new technology.
Period 1 .- Yield increase across all regions, highest in the north east region and the south region.
– Yield levels substantially high in costal states like Kerala, TN, and W.Bengal. due to factors
like weather, rainfall, and soil.
– High in north west region due to irrigation facilities
Period 2 – significant change in the yield levels and growth across regions.
–
–
–
•
•
The southern region continues to have a higher yield – due to the agro-climactic conditions. But the yield
growth was faster in the northeastern region due to the new technology.
Yield in the central region continued to be the lowest. But the growth was substantial.
During the period 70s to 80s the combined cultivation of wheat and rice led to the spread of new
technology to many new regions, Gujarat, Maharashtra, in central region and Andhra and Karnataka in the
south. However eastern region continued to be at the lowest level.
Period 3 :- Yield growth rate highest in all the periods. This is also seen across regions, especially
in the central region, which was growing the slowest in period previously.
However, as would be discussed later, the sources for this growth of yield rate are different in
different regions.
– Eastern region – due to rise in rice productivity
– Central region and to some extent southern region—cropping pattern changes from low
value coarse cereals to oil seeds ( in southern region cultivation of rice also played some
role)
– Northwestern region - due to the growth of rice, wheat and cotton and sugar cane.
Regional Patterns in Agriculture
State and Regionwise Levels and Growth of Area during 1962-65,1970-73,1980-83and 1992-95 -Major 43 crops
Average Area( 000 Hectares )
Per Cent Annual Compound Growth Rate*
State
1962-65
1970-73
1980-83
1992-95
(A)
(B)
( C)
(D)
Haryana
4151.37
4606.07
5065.77
5429.33
1.31
0.96
0.58
0.9
Himachal Pradesh816.21
865.97
907.83
888.42
0.74
0.47
-0.18
0.28
Jammu and Kashmir813
823.5
901.53
970.13
0.16
0.91
0.61
0.59
Punjab
4092
4935.3
6042.05
6806.47
2.37
2.04
1
1.71
Uttar Pradesh 23583.17
24937.1
25903.44
24288.9
0.7
0.38
-0.53
0.1
North-west region
33455.75
36167.93
38820.62
38383.26
0.98
0.71
-0.09
0.46
Assam
2625.47
2791
3324.93
3617.73
0.77
1.77
0.71
1.07
Bihar
10689.41
10722.13
10195.2
9304.78
0.04
-0.5
-0.76
-0.46
Orissa
5928.33
6479.6
7832.97
6575.61
1.12
1.91
-1.45
0.35
West Bengal 6411.57
6987.2
7062.77
7914.24
1.08
0.11
0.95
0.7
Eastern region 25654.78
26979.93
28415.87
27412.36
0.63
0.52
-0.3
0.22
Gujarat
9031.91
8831.2
9126.17
8792.27
-0.28
0.33
-0.31
-0.09
Madhya Pradesh
18464.8
19822.7
20799.23
23235.97
0.89
0.48
0.93
0.77
Maharashtra 17963.57
16512.3
19276.73
19833.61
-1.05
1.56
0.24
0.33
Rajasthan
13877.79
15239.67
16394.03
18541.2
1.18
0.73
1.03
0.97
Central Region59338.07
60405.87
65596.17
70403.04
0.22
0.83
0.59
0.59
Andhra Pradesh
12270.12
12311.96
12199.33
11735.27
0.04
-0.09
-0.32
-0.15
Karnataka
10343.17
9573.96
10295.23
11689.72
-0.96
0.73
1.06
0.41
Kerala
2212.51
2676.28
2566.23
2642.81
2.41
-0.42
0.25
0.59
Tamil Nadu
7026.97
7397.88
6304.93
6725.38
0.65
-1.59
0.54
-0.15
Southern region
31852.77
31960.08
31365.73
32793.18
0.04
-0.19
0.37
0.1
All India
151314.63
156621.8 165698.33 170603.83
0.43
0.56
0.24
0.4
C V (percentage)
141.05
159.04
279.54
112.27
Regional Patterns in Agriculture
•
growth of cropped area
– through increase in the net area sown
– or through an increase in the intensity of cultivation. Intensity of cultivation is
brought about by bringing in more short duration crops and irrigation.
•
•
•
•
•
Area expansion has ceased to be a source of growth of crop output since mid
1960s.
After the 1960s NSA is more or less stagnant while the cropped area increased
mainly due to increases in intensity of cultivation.
Period 1 – GCA grew at 0.43 percent at the all India level, while in Punjab
and Haryana the area growth was much higher than this due to the irrigation
facilities and the short breeding crop varieties. Other regions also experienced
rise in the GCA but this was due to other reasons like weather and rainfall.
Period 2
- GCA total increased at the rate of 0.56, while GCA in the
northwestern region
continued to grow at a fast rate due to the intensive
cultivation. Other regions the growth was due to other factors like rainfall. Etc.
Period 3
- GCA total growth declined to 0.24 percent. Both north west
region and the eastern region experienced decline in GCA growth.
Regional Patterns in Agriculture
State and Regionwise Levels and Growth of Net Area Sown during 1962-65,1970-73,1980-83and 1992-95
Average Area( 000 Hectares )
Per Cent Annual Compound Growth Rate*
State
1962-65
1970-73
1980-83
1992-95
(A)
(B)
( C)
(D)
Haryana
3483.67
3550.00
3619.33
3491.00
0.24
0.19
-0.36
0.01
Himachal Pradesh
535.67
551.00
572.00
573.50
0.35
0.37
0.03
0.23
Jammu and Kashmir
683.67
586.33
718.33
732.00
-1.90
2.05
0.19
0.23
Punjab
3861.00
4071.67
4201.00
4177.00
0.67
0.31
-0.06
0.26
Uttar Pradesh
17296.00
17272.00
17245.00
17237.50
-0.02
-0.02
0.00
-0.01
North-west region
25860.00
26031.00
26355.67
26211.00
0.08
0.12
-0.06
0.04
Assam
2120.33
2326.67
2702.67
2706.00
1.17
1.51
0.01
0.82
Bihar
8478.00
8261.00
7902.00
7438.50
-0.32
-0.44
-0.60
-0.44
Orissa
5938.00
5662.67
6117.33
6320.50
-0.59
0.78
0.33
0.21
West Bengal
5504.67
5437.00
5565.00
5334.00
-0.15
0.23
-0.42
-0.10
Eastern region
22041.00
21687.33
22287.00
21799.00
-0.20
0.27
-0.22
-0.04
Gujarat
9531.00
9692.33
9609.67
9437.00
0.21
-0.09
-0.18
-0.03
Madhya Pradesh
16536.33
18436.33
18856.67
19452.50
1.37
0.23
0.31
0.54
Maharashtra
18148.00
16921.33
18208.00
17972.00
-0.87
0.74
-0.13
-0.03
Rajasthan
13923.33
15100.33
15501.67
16213.50
1.02
0.26
0.45
0.51
Central Region
58138.67
60150.33
62176.00
63075.00
0.43
0.33
0.14
0.27
Andhra Pradesh
11511.33
11360.67
11032.33
10753.50
-0.16
-0.29
-0.26
-0.23
Karnataka
10426.33
10129.00
10215.33
10748.50
-0.36
0.08
0.51
0.10
Kerala
2022.67
2185.33
2176.67
2249.00
0.97
-0.04
0.33
0.35
Tamil Nadu
6060.33
6283.00
5453.00
5546.50
0.45
-1.41
0.17
-0.29
Southern region
30020.67
29958.00
28877.33
29297.50
-0.03
-0.37
0.14
-0.08
All India
136981.33 139044.00 140982.33 141999.50
0.19
0.14
0.07
0.12
- The trends in the NSA shows that there was fairly rapid deceleration in the growth of NSA
during the entire period. In many states the NSA even declined due to the urbanization/ or and
afforestation.
This has led to the rise of cropping intensity across the regions in all the years, especially in the
period 80-83 to 90-93.
Regional Patterns in Agriculture
Statewise Level of Inputs used During 1962-65,1980-83 and 1992-95
Number of Tractors( Per 000
Number
Hectares)
of Pumpsets (Per 000Consumption
Hectares) of Fertilisers (Kgs/Hect)
Percentage of GCA Irrigated
State
1962-65 1980-83 1987 1962-65 1980-83 1987 1962-65 1980-83 1992-95 1962-65 1980-82 1992-95
Haryana
0.70 17.07 55.50
2.32
71.50 120.47
2.53
68.99 191.19
31.10
62.21
77.14
Himachal Pradesh
0.04
1.57
7.32
0.05
3.15 3.32
0.94
30.65 50.29
17.10
16.70
17.84
Jammu and Kashmir 0.17
1.10
6.08
0.12
1.38 3.97
1.54
34.16 60.75
35.97
40.37
40.69
Punjab
2.41 25.35 81.78
8.20 157.69 160.09
7.84 192.07 296.68
58.42
86.84
94.58
Uttar Pradesh
0.50
8.25 20.88
1.45
63.93 98.47
4.06
75.36 134.27
26.99
47.42
62.29
North-west region
0.80 11.85 34.40
2.51
76.89 106.41
4.29
91.02 163.62
32.26
55.52
67.25
Assam
0.27
0.11
2.70
0.11
0.52 1.59
0.26
4.15 11.94
Bihar
0.21
1.94
8.88
0.92
49.76 52.32
2.96
27.46 85.36
20.13
33.67
43.18
Orissa
0.07
0.20
2.71
0.19
2.82 6.31
1.20
13.78 33.35
11.80
22.90
26.24
West Bengal
0.17
0.34
5.02
0.80
37.36 129.02
4.72
48.02 139.36
22.62
24.57
54.27
Eastern region
0.17
0.83
5.34
0.61
27.59 51.47
2.63
26.07 74.27
16.50
24.10
30.94
Gujarat
0.27
2.94 12.62
9.33
58.88 72.05
3.63
40.38 76.66
7.83
22.93
29.33
Madhya Pradesh
0.14
1.24
6.46
1.05
21.36 32.32
0.82
11.78 42.01
5.67
11.79
20.66
Maharashtra
0.13
1.17
4.60
7.05
32.12 32.57
2.41
26.83 68.63
6.90
12.66
15.38
Rajasthan
0.27
3.49 10.96
0.56
27.61 37.01
0.56
9.25 31.39
12.95
21.27
27.20
Central Region
0.19
2.05
8.05
4.19
31.82 39.57
1.72
19.93 51.88
8.08
16.18
11.97
Andhra Pradesh
0.20
1.95
4.85
5.43
62.37 84.08
9.67
58.20 149.74
29.47
35.43
39.87
Karnataka
0.17
1.98
5.21
3.58
29.46 47.32
3.43
37.15 74.40
9.51
15.95
22.58
Kerala
0.17
0.60
5.19
4.36
45.41 96.09
15.40
45.66 85.79
19.73
13.36
12.34
Tamil Nadu
0.39
2.74
2.68
31.94 218.82 194.07
11.99
92.17 140.78
45.33
48.70
47.90
Southern region
0.23
2.00
4.58
10.07
77.81 93.28
8.34
55.88 115.33
25.66
29.32
33.02
All India
0.30
3.68 11.73
4.58
49.16 64.94
4.33
42.62 89.08
19.00
29.29
35.66
Regional Patterns in Agriculture
•
•
•
The levels and growth of land productivity (yield) and the growth of output are
positively related to the use of modern inputs, such as irrigation, tractors, fertilizer
use.
There is also an association between the growth of output and use of modern inputs
at the all India level though not as strong as for the yield relationship.
The largest rise in output growth and yield was in the period from 83 to 93. This was
also the period when input consumption shot up to the peak in India. (see irrigation
and fertilizers)
Regional Patterns in Agriculture
Cropping Pattern Changes-Regionwise (Percentage Share of Area under 43 Crops)
Region/Period Rice
Wheat
Coarse Cereals
Pulses Foodgrains
Non Foodgrains
Nine Oilseeds
Fibre Crops Cotton Sugarcane
Remaining Crops
North-Western Region
1962-65
15.30
19.98
23.20
20.99
79.47
20.53
12.28
2.49
2.18
4.61
1.15
1980-83
18.95
33.83
16.13
10.76
79.68
20.32
10.68
2.89
2.75
4.72
2.04
1992-95
22.49
38.47
12.33
9.20
82.48
17.52
7.02
3.16
3.12
5.47
1.86
Eastern Region
1962-65
62.71
2.90
7.37
15.63
88.62
11.38
3.30
4.16
0.09
1.01
2.91
1980-83
58.54
7.51
7.58
12.55
86.17
13.83
5.74
3.37
0.03
0.86
3.86
1992-95
61.83
8.41
4.78
9.64
84.66
15.34
6.43
3.04
0.03
0.74
5.13
Central Region
1962-65
10.55
9.66
38.14
16.68
75.03
24.97
12.06
9.52
9.27
0.44
2.95
1980-83
10.65
10.66
35.94
17.80
75.05
24.95
12.02
8.09
7.90
0.69
4.15
1992-95
10.83
10.16
29.70
17.54
68.23
31.77
20.10
6.91
6.82
0.87
3.90
Southern Region
1962-65
24.99
1.01
36.81
9.66
72.47
27.53
12.21
6.17
5.76
0.87
8.28
1980-83
24.88
1.10
29.92
11.39
67.30
32.70
13.94
5.66
5.24
1.68
11.42
1992-95
23.56
0.70
20.82
12.19
57.27
42.73
23.04
5.17
4.89
2.15
12.38
All India
1962-65
23.78
8.92
29.20
15.93
77.85
22.15
10.59
6.31
5.36
1.56
3.69
1980-83
23.96
13.68
25.08
13.91
76.63
23.37
10.92
5.55
4.78
1.85
5.05
1992-95
24.91
14.32
19.81
13.17
72.21
27.79
15.31
5.04
4.42
2.13
5.32
Regional Patterns in Agriculture
us Crops in Total Output of Regions
Region/Period Rice
Wheat Coarse
Pulses Cereals
Food grains
Non-food grains
Nine Grains
Fibre Oilseeds
Cotton Crops
Sugarcane
Remaining Crops
North-Western Region
1962-65 12.88
15.42
11.02
23.21
62.53
37.47
11.07
4.87
4.66
18.22
3.31
1980-83 19.60
34.68
6.47
8.55
69.30
30.70
6.93
4.25
4.19
14.49
5.03
1992-95 23.63
37.09
4.79
5.66
71.16
28.84
5.93
4.59
4.58
13.63
4.69
Eastern Region
1962-65 60.80
1.44
3.33
12.11
77.68
22.32
2.66
4.54
0.06
3.88
11.24
1980-83 50.90
7.00
3.35
8.88
70.13
29.87
6.18
3.77
0.03
3.17
16.75
1992-95 57.57
7.71
2.57
4.71
72.56
27.44
4.42
3.18
0.02
1.79
18.05
Central Region
1962-65 13.79
7.79
20.41
16.39
58.37
41.63
18.11
11.89
11.78
4.16
7.47
1980-83 12.82
12.40
18.10
15.49
58.81
41.19
17.42
9.36
9.30
6.72
7.69
1992-95 11.41
12.57
13.78
14.25
52.01
47.99
26.41
8.40
8.38
5.79
7.39
Southern Region
1962-65 31.01
0.21
12.14
3.34
46.70
53.30
15.11
3.70
3.51
5.99
28.50
1980-83 31.09
0.30
10.01
3.79
45.20
54.80
12.29
3.84
3.67
8.92
29.75
1992-95 26.93
0.18
6.75
3.30
37.15
62.85
16.73
4.46
4.37
8.95
32.71
All India
1962-65 27.86
6.27
12.39
13.51
60.02
39.98
12.42
6.43
5.39
7.98
13.15
1980-83 26.27
14.89
9.94
9.16
60.27
39.73
10.94
5.40
4.69
8.92
14.47
1992-95 26.75
15.61
7.42
7.23
57.00
43.00
14.11
5.36
4.82
8.20
15.33
Regional Patterns in Agriculture
•
•
•
•
The seed fertilizer technology was primarily confined to wheat and rice in the mid
60s. Later on the technology spread to a number of crops like the coarse cereals,
rapeseed and mustard, soyabean, sunflower, cotton and sugarcane etc.
Different regions experienced different growth rates in output partly due to the
changes in the crops in cultivation as well. The regions that focused in the
production of wheat, which had the highest yield generally had a higher rate of
growth. This was followed by cotton, rapeseed, mustard, rice and coarse cereals, in
that order.
Structural rigidities in the Indian agriculture that the traditional agriculture did only
food grain production. It is only in the eighties that the cropping pattern started
to change in India.
But there were substantial changes within the food grain production itself. Due to the
rise in yield and the price advantage during 1965 to 80s the share of wheat in the
total cropped area increased from 8.9 % to 13.7 percent. On the other hand the share
of coarse cereals and pulses recorded a notable decline. While rice continued without
much change.
Regional Patterns in Agriculture
•
•
•
•
•
In the northwestern region the chief crops became wheat and rice, displacing coarse
cereals and pulses, though the share of food grains remained more or less same during
the entire period.
In the eastern region also the wheat share increased substantially at the cost of coarse
cereals and pulses. There was some rise in the share of oil seeds.
Central regions saw the decline of coarse cereals especially in the 80-90 periods, while
the share in oilseeds increased heavily.
in the southern region also there was a vast decline in the share of coarse cereals ,whose
share was taken over by the non-food grains, especially oilseeds.
this massive shift towards the oilseeds was mainly due to the relative increase in
profitability due to two factors; 1- hefty increases in the administered prices of oil seeds
compared to the coarse cereals. 2- increase in the yield in the major oilseeds.
Regional Patterns in Agriculture
Le ve l & Growth of Male Agricultural Worke rs Productivity (Rs pe r worke r at 1990-93 pr
Male Workers Productivity
Growth Rate (Per Cent Per Annum)*
State
1962-65 1970-73 1980-83 1992-95
(A)
(B)
( C)
(D)
Haryana
11144 13874 15357 21871
2.78
1.02
2.99
2.27
Himachal Pradesh
3609
5110
5184
6045
4.44
0.14
1.29
1.73
Jammu and Kashmir 2922
4185
5201
4664
4.59
2.20
-0.91
1.57
Punjab
11302 14950 20646 26967
3.56
3.28
2.25
2.94
Uttar Pradesh
5513
6032
6801
7773
1.13
1.21
1.12
1.15
North-west region
6246
7373
8690 10534
2.09
1.66
1.62
1.76
Assam
6166
6413
7349
8021
0.49
1.37
0.73
0.88
Bihar
3860
3500
2965
2934
-1.22
-1.64
-0.09
-0.91
Orissa
5812
5483
6340
6278
-0.73
1.46
-0.08
0.26
West Bengal
5714
5787
5380
7808
0.16
-0.73
3.15
1.05
Eastern region
4942
4739
4644
5271
-0.52
-0.20
1.06
0.21
Gujarat
8878
8529
9930 10807
-0.50
1.53
0.71
0.66
Madhya Pradesh
6234
6327
6104
8556
0.19
-0.36
2.85
1.06
Maharashtra
7309
4882
8144
9758
-4.92
5.25
1.52
0.97
Rajasthan
5233
6534
6348
9090
2.82
-0.29
3.04
1.86
Central Region
6791
6307
7401
9373
-0.92
1.61
1.99
1.08
Andhra Pradesh
6706
6355
7707
9293
-0.67
1.95
1.58
1.10
Karnataka
6883
7575
8061 11016
1.21
0.62
2.64
1.58
Kerala
15576 15657 15586 16830
0.07
-0.05
0.64
0.26
Tamil Nadu
7855
8472
7274 10943
0.95
-1.51
3.46
1.11
Southern region
7817
8175
8284 10794
0.56
0.13
2.23
1.08
All India
6414
6552
7215
8961
0.27
0.97
1.82
1.12
C V (percentage)
43.36
46.94
51.94
56.47 269.52 184.59
80.69
72.76
Regional Patterns in Agriculture
•
•
•
•
•
Rapid rise in agricultural output along with increasing intensity of
cultivation increased the demand for labor in some parts of India.
On the other hand there took place a rapid capitalization of
agriculture in response to the rising wages, and this resulted in the
displacement of labor in certain agricultural operations.
In some regions where the new technology did not take root also the
labor absorption in the sector was high due to non – availability of
non-agricultural employment.
Historically speaking in traditional societies in spite of the vast
differences in the land yield per worker productivity have tended to
remain equal over regions. The inequalities were kept low through
migration, population adjustment, and suction mechanism.
However we find that the regional disparity in MAW productivity is
increasing over the years.
Regional Patterns in Agriculture
Regionwise shares in milk and eggs and all crop output and Gross cropped area (per cent)
Regions
Item
Year
Southern WesternNorth-Western Central Eastern
Milk
1981-82
18.8
11.7
20.6
33.9 13.5
1994-95
20.9
13.0
18.2
33.6 12.3
Eggs
1987-88
45.2
11.0
10.3
6.8 23.9
1993-94
42.1
11.9
13.2
9.6 20.9
Avg value of crop output (a) 1992-95
26.0
13.4
12.5
31.0 16.0
GCA (b)
1991-92
19.0
17.8
9.4
36.2 17.8
Regional perspectives in Industrial development
1.Manufacturing Sector as the Engine of Growth• Kaldor’s First Law: Countries with higher manufacturing growth will also have higher
GDP growth
GDPgrowth = f(ManufacturingGrowth)
•
Kaldor’s Second Law: Growth of manufacturing production is causally and positively
related to the growth of manufacturing productivity because the sector is subject to
economies of scale (Verdoon’s law)
Manufacturing growth = f(manufacturing productivity growth)
•
Kaldor’s Third Law: Economy’s productivity growth should vary inversely with the
growth of labour force not employed in manufacturing because it is envisaged that
outside of manufacturing sector, productivity growth is lower due to disguised
unemployment, decreasing returns etc.
Productivity growth = f {1/ non-manufacturing employment growth)
Regional perspectives in Industrial development
Manufacturing Sector for regional development
• Industrialization results in strong backward linkages strengthening the market of the
primary products of the region.
• It also helps in infrastructure building of the region
• It relieves agriculture from disguised employment, leading to productivity rise in
agriculture (fei ranis model) and higher wage rates
Manufacturing sector in the regional setting
• Manufacturing sector is a potential candidate for bringing in regional balance, due to its
locational mobility unlike agriculture sector and its inter- sectoral linkages, which could
produce dynamic outcomes of growth, productivity, and higher wages
• However, some of the issues are (Dholakia, 1989)
– Should individual industries be geographically concentrated in a few regions or
should they be evenly spread out?
– Should individual regional economies have a diversified structure of industries or
should they have a high degree of specialization in a few industries?
Regional perspectives in Industrial development
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
5. Regional perspectives in industry is analyzed from various angles such as :
Regional Growth patterns
Regional Location of various industries
Regional concentration of all industries
Inter regional inter industry linkages
Regional variations in formal and informal manufacturing
Regional variations in size, ownership etc
6. All of these are to be analyzed using various industry indicators like
NVA
C-O ratio
C-L ratio
Employment
Regional perspectives in Industrial development
•
•
•
•
•
Regional Patterns in Industrial growth
(Goldar and Seth, 1989, EPW)
Industrial Growth Patterns : Spatial Variations
Marked deceleration in Indian manufacturing after the mid 60s.(Raj, 1976, Shetty,
78, and Ahluwalia, 1978)
The reasons as per Ahluwalia
•
•
•
•
•
•
Slow down of public investment and resulting inadequate infrastrcutre investment
Poor management of infrastrucure sector.
Slow growth in agricultural income and the resulting slow growth in demand for industrial products.
Restrictive industrial and foreign trade policies which led to high cost industrial structure.
After mid seventies, especially in the eighties, the deceleration in the sector have
been arrested and there is evidence for some smart recovery in rate of industrial
growth.
-ahluwalia holds the view that it is the favorable changes in the industrial and
foreign trade policy in the period helped this recovery in the growth rate.
Regional perspectives in Industrial development
annual growth rate of real NVA in reg. Manufacturing
Growth Rate (Per Cent Per Annum)*
change in growth rate
a
b
c
b-a
c-b
60-61 to 65-66
65-66 to 75-76
75-76 to 85-86
Andhra Pradesh
6.84
6.71
6.03
-0.13
-0.68
Bihar
4.26
2.4
6.07
-1.86
3.67
Gujarat
4.57
3.88
4.11
-0.69
0.23
Karnataka
8.24
7.39
6.76
-0.85
-0.63
Kerala
10.8
4.59
3.03
-6.21
-1.56
Madhya Pradesh
9.62
7.95
6.43
-1.67
-1.52
Maharashtra
5.81
5.53
5.48
-0.28
-0.05
Orissa
27.17
3.35
9.84
-23.82
6.49
Rajasthan
7.32
3.95
5.8
-3.37
1.85
Tamil Nadu
6.49
5.67
5.73
-0.82
0.06
Uttar Pradesh
6
4.13
7.09
-1.87
2.96
West Bengal
6.23
-1.53
1.88
-7.76
3.41
State
Regional perspectives in Industrial development
•
The period of study covered 1960-61 to 85-86, dividing into three phases. They are
–
–
–
•
•
•
•
•
•
to 65-66,- period I
65-66 to 75-76, - period II
75-76 to 85-86. – period III
12 of the large states are covered .
NVA in the registred manufacturing at 70-71 prices is obtained and then the growth rates
are calculated statewise.
Trends –
All the states experienced a deceleration in the rate of industrial growth after the mid
sixties. But the extent of deceleration varied from state to state. Sharp fall in Orissa,
Bengal, Kerala, Rajasthan, whie Andhra and Maharashtra saw onlty marginal decline in
the rate odf industrial growth.
After the mid seventies there was a sharp rise in the industrial growth rates in most
states. These states are Orissa, Bihar, Bengal, and UP, while Kerala and MP and to a
lesser exten Karnataka and Andhra Pradeh experience a deceleration in industrial growth
beyond 75-76.
States that experienced the sharpest deceleration in the first period are also the same
states that experienced a sharp recovery in the second period. (except for Kerala)
Regional perspectives in Industrial development
Based on the trends States can be classified into 3 groups.
•
First group – states that did not experience any marked deceleration after the mid
sixties or ant markets improvement in the growth rate after the mid seventies. I.e. they
experienced growth at a uniform rate – Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, TN,
Karnataka.
•
Second group – states that experienced a significant deceleration after the mid
sixties and then a significant acceleration after the mid seventies.- Orissa, Rajasthan, UP
and W. Bengal,
•
Third Group- states that experienced a continuous deceleration in the rate of
industrial growth. – MP and Kerala
Regional perspectives in Industrial development
•
•
Regional inequality is lesser in the secondary sector as a whole compared to the
manufacturing sector alone.
Regional Inequality is declining by both indicators
Weighted CV
79-80
84-85
reg mfg sector
77.68
72.38
secondary secotr
53.08
46.74
Dholakia, 1989
Regional perspectives in Industrial development
NVA growth
Nva
Level
high
low
high
Gujarat, Haryana
Maharashtra, Punjab, Karnataka, TN, WB
low
JK, Himachal, UP, MP, Bihar
Raj, AP, Kerala, Orissa, Assam
Dhaolakia, 1989
-Net Value added in southern states have grown at a rate lower than the national growth rate
during the period 1979-84 . The northern states, except Rajasthan and Punjab, on the contrary
have grown at a rate higher than the national growth rate during the same period. Deliberate
policy alone can give rise to such sharp regional differentiation.
-Again the Southern region (plus West Bengal and Assam) has a considerably above average
capital productivity in manufacturing but has significantly less capital per worker. The northern
region, on the contrary, has high capital per worker but is far below the national average in terms
of capital productivity.
-One of the reasons for high capital intensity in manufacturing of the northern region during the
mid-eighties is that the north has secured a much larger share in the investments in the new
undertakings of the central government. Most of these states were congress run states, which
also had the same party forming the central government.
-States that have a higher level of per capita net value added than the national average had a
lesser growth rate than the national average, while states that had a level less than the national
average, the had a growth rate higher than the national average, implying convergence in the per
capita NVA across states.
Regional perspectives in Industrial development
•
•
Causes for the spatial variation in industrial growth.
Agricultural growth
–
–
•
Increase in power supply (infrastructure) –
–
•
The expected relation is that states that high rates of agricultural growth will have low rates of
deceleration in industrial growth.
But the rank correlations drawn between the two shows that there is no significant relation
between the two. I.e. states, which experienced poor agricultural growth, did not experience in
industrial growth as much those states whose agricultural performance had been relatively
better.
similarly the changes in power supply in different regions also did not show any significant
relation with the deceleration or acceleration of industrial growth across different regions.
Regional intensity of public sector investment.
–
The rank correlation between the extent of industrial deceleration and the index of regional
intensity of pubic investment is found to be 0.38. If Rajasthan is excluded, then the coefficient
increases to 0.56. In essence it means that the states which gained relatively more from public
investment in the 50s and 60s experienced a more pronounced slow down in the industrial
growth after the mid sixties , presumable due to the significant slowdown in the public
investment during the period.
Regional perspectives in Industrial development
•
•
•
Regional Concentration of Industrial Location: (Shetty, S.L., 1982)
State wise distribution of factories brings out the nature of extreme concentration of
factories in a few states. The four industrialized states of Maharashtra, West Bengal,
Gujarat and Tamil Nadu together had 44.7% of factories, 37.9% of the fixed capital and
40.8% of productive capital. While Bihar had only 5 to 6% share of all attributes whether
relating to employment or output. The five above mentioned states and U.P, M.P., A.P. and
Karnataka had a share in the Value added at about 4.0% or more, each. These nine states
accounted for 78.4% of total number of factories, 79.0% of fixed capital and productive
capital, 82.4% of factory employment. And over the years the concentration in a few states
continue to be rising.
What causes greater growth in NVA, concentration of an industry in a few states or
regional spread of an industry? (dholakia,89)
– If returns to scale are increasing, increased regional concentration of industry would
lead to higher growth of NVA. But if there are decreasing returns to scale, then
increased regional concentration of an industry would result in a lower growth of
NVA.
– 23 two digit level industry groups are taken for the period 79-80 to 84-85The degree
of regional concentration of an industry is taken as the share of the top three states in
terms of NVA in the industry group. The degree of association or correlation between
the degree of concentration and growth rate of per capita NVA turns out to be
negative and significant.
– This show decreasing returns to scale, hence regional spread of industries would be
needed for higher growth of per capta NVA.
Regional perspectives in Industrial development
•
•
•
•
Regional Patterns of Industrial Diversification: (Shetty, S.L., 1982)
Within each of these nine states mentioned above nearly 70 percent of the
gross output and value added is concentrated in 7 major industries. Generation
of electricity, manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, and
manufacture of food products appear in all the states’ top 7 industries. Cotton
textile is common to six out of the nine states.
In the three southern states of TN, AP and Karnataka, there was greater
diversification into other industries, while in the other states there was primacy
of a few industries as said above.
(DHolakia, 89) We find the top 3 industrial share in each state as the degree of
concentration in a state. This is correlated with capital per worker. Such a
correlation is to test the hypothesis that if the regional economy is diversified
th invariably reduces the requirement of capital per worker .This is based on
the justification of diminishing returns. Specialization implies more investment
in that industry groups which are already dominating the regional economy. If
diminishing returns to scale operate in the economy we require a higher
amount of capital per worker to maintain labor productivity at the original
level. Thus would mean increase in capital intensity. The measured correlation
coefficient turn out to be =.503 and significant at 5 percent level.