The Demographic Transition
Model
and the
Fertility Transition Theory
• Conceived by Frank Notestein 1945.
• Model of population change based
upon effects of economic development.
• Based on the experience of the
Western world, it was used for decades
as a model to predict what should/would
happen to developing countries
eventually.
• All countries pass through four or five
stages to a state of maturity.
http://www.uwec.edu/Academic/
Geography/Ivogeler/w111/demmo
del.htm
Stage 1: High steady birth rates and high but
fluctuating death rates. Therefore, low natural
increase rate. Two rates are approximately
equal. The death rate fluctuates due to war
and disease. Low income, agricultural society.
Birth rates are high to off-set the high death
rates.
Stage 2: Dramatic decline in death rates; high
birth rates. Onset of industrialization and
related health and medical advances. Birth
rates are slow to respond, especially in the
developing world. Key stage for growth.
Stage 3: Low death rates; declining birth
rates, due to voluntary decisions to reduce
family size aided by improved
contraception. Related to improved
standard of living. Natural increase rate
falls.
Stage 4: Low steady death and birth rates.
Low natural increase rate, similar to Stage
1. Most developed countries are in this
stage. Low death rates; declining birth
rates. Zero Population Growth. Death rates
higher than birth rates – negative growth.
• So, in summary, the argument that is
extracted from the demographic transition
model is that since the developed countries
underwent a dramatic change that resulted in
lower rates of population growth, if only the
developing nations could do the same, their
fertility rates would also fall.
“Development is the best form of birth
control.”
However ….
This demographic transition has not
occurred uniformly geographically.
Some areas are in Stage 5 and some areas
are in Stage 2.
Times have changed since the developed
world went through the demographic
transition.
Therefore, can we use the dtm as a
predictive tool? Can we assume that the
passage from 3rd to 4th stage will happen
over time?
From the evidence of modern experience, it
seems “no”.
Conditions are different:
• Prospects for industrialization are
questionable.
• Reductions in death rates are a result in
some countries of diffusion of technology
and aid from the developed world.
• It’s one thing to introduce death control,
another to introduce successful ways to
reduce birth rates
• There is evidence to suggest that the
fertility rates are declining as in the 3rd and
4th stage of the demographic transition
model, but for very different reasons.
This is known as the Fertility Transition
Theory.
Remember Fertility means the number of
children that a women will have during her
child bearing years (15 to 45 on average).
The Fertility Transition Theory
• Fertility is declining in the developing world
at a rate which exceeds the rate of decline
that was experienced in the developed world.
• It seems to be related directly to the extent
to which modern contraceptives are
employed.
• Education is not a prerequisite for using
contraception.
Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction
Average number of children per woman
8.2
7.0
6.7
6.9
6.6
7.0
6.3
6.0
5.8
5.5
5.1
4.3
3.5
3.3
3.0
2.4
Bangladesh
Egypt
India
Indonesia
2.4
2.3
Iran
1950-1955
Nepal
Pakistan Turkey
2000-2005
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
© 2003 Population Reference Bureau
Yemen
• Information about contraception is now
widespread due to mass media.
• Appeal for large families has fallen due to
rising status of women (Empowerment),
obvious problems associated with rapid and
a large population increased for the family
and the state (e.g., pressure on agricultural
land).
• In summary, the Fertility Transition Theory
asserts that while economic development
can create a climate conducive to
reductions in fertility, it is a change in
cultural attitude about large families and a
willingness to use contraception that is the
key, along with the availability of the
contraception and the empowerment of
women.
• In short, development is not the best form of
contraceptive; rather contraceptives are the
best form of contraceptive.
• But what are some of the obstacles to the
more widespread use of contraception?
• Opposition to birth control and family
planning.
• The manufacture and distribution and
education about their use of contraceptives
is expensive.
• Religion can block birth control programs.
Catholic Church and some others.
• Low status of women: lack of political and
economic rights; lack of access to education.
• Preference for male children in some areas.
• Fertility rates are lower in urban societies,
and much of the developing world is still rural.
• Anti-U.S. governments see contraception as
an American plot to control their country,
culture and religion.
The End!