国际宏观经济政策
理论与实例
Spring, 2005
Instructor
 何茵
 朗润园 620
 Tel：62759485
 Email：yin.he@ccer.pku.edu.cn
T.A.
 史晓霞
Textbooks
 Macroeconomics, N. Gregory Mankiw
World Publisher
 《宏观经济学》(第4版) 格里高利•曼昆
人民大学出版社，2000年
参考书：《全球视角的宏观经济学》
捷弗里·萨科斯等著，费方域等译
上海三联书店·上海人民出版社 1997
Grading
 Homework： 10%
 Project:
 Quiz:
 Mid-term:
 Final:
20%
10%
30%
30%
Group Project
 Anything you feel interested in
Macroeconomics
 Paper (10%) --- short
 Presentation (10%) --- peer evaluation
Group Project
 Paper
1. Raise the question
2. Existing literature
3. Your hypothesis or analysis
Tables or graphs w/ data are preferred
Some econometrics analysis is a plus
Economics
 Jacob Viner (Harvard, 1892-1970)
--- “a thing that the economists do”
 John Maynard Keynes (Cambridge, 1883-1946)
--- “an easy subject, at which few excel!”
 Lionel Robbins (Cambridge, 1898-1984)
Economics is a science that studies human
behavior as a relationship between ends (wants)
and scarce means (scarcity) that have alternate use.
Economics
 Studies human behavior
--- Uncertainty
*** It depends… ***
on what? --- factors
Why? --- intuitions
How? --- logic
Conclusions?
Economics
 Should you get married?
Well, it depends. (Yes! You’re right! )
--- the one?
--- she/he want to get married as well?
--- age
--- personality & life style
--- psychological cost
……
Economics
 Should the developing countries liberalize
the foreign investment?
--- Type
Portfolio (stock market; financial system)
Direct (form;sectors;areas)
--- Scale
……
Reasons to Learn Macroeconomics
1. It affects society’s well-being
2. It affects individual well-being
3. It affects politics
Example (Unemployment)
 Social impact
--- Each 1% increase in the unemployment rate is
associated with:
 920 more suicides
 650 more homicides
 4000 more people admitted to state mental
institutions
 3300 more people sent to state prisons
 37,000 more deaths
 Increases in domestic violence and homelessness
Example (Unemployment)
 Individual impact
--- consumption
--- investment
--- other individual decisions
 Politics
--- election
Contents in Macroeconomics
1. The economy in the long run
2. The economy in the short run
3. Policy debate
4. Open economy policy
The economy in the LR (Growth)
GDP Per Capita U.S.(constant 95 US$)
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
3.50E+04
3.00E+04
2.50E+04
2.00E+04
1.50E+04
1.00E+04
5.00E+03
0.00E+00
The economy in the LR (Growth)
GDP Per Capita China (constant 95 US$)
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1.00E+03
8.00E+02
6.00E+02
4.00E+02
2.00E+02
0.00E+00
The economy in the LR
(Unemployment)
Unemployment Rate
10
8
6
4
2
0
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999
Year
China
United States
The economy in the LR
(Money and Inflation)
Inflation Rate % (consumer prices)
30
20
10
0
-10978
1
1
4
7
0
3
6
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
Year
China
United States
The Economy in the Short Run
 Introduction to economic fluctuations
 Aggregate Demand
 Aggregate Supply
Policy Debate
 How to make policy in an uncertain world?
1)
Should policy be active or passive
2)
Should policy be conducted by rule or
by discretion?
Government Debt & Budget Deficit
 Tradition views of government debt
 Ricardian Equivalence
 Other thoughts about government debt
Government Debt & Budget Deficit
中国政府财政赤字（亿元）
500
0
-500
-1000
亿元
-1500
-2000
-2500
-3000
1978
1990
1992
1995
年份
1997
2000
Government Debt & Budget Deficit
Budget Deficit (U.S.)
1.00E+13
5.00E+12
0.00E+00
-5.00E+12
-1.00E+13
$
-1.50E+13
-2.00E+13
-2.50E+13
-3.00E+13
-3.50E+13
1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997
Year
Open Economy Policy
 Exchange rate
 The Mundell-Fleming model
 The Small Open Economy (SOE) under
floating exchange rates
 The SOE under fixed exchange rates
 Should exchange rates be floating or fixed?