WELCOME
To all RMS’ Guests to our First
Seminar Addressing
Risk Management Techniques.
Risk Management Services
Risk Management - Removing the Mystery
Agenda
• “INSURANCE IS NO SUBSTITUTE FOR
GOOD RISK MANAGEMENT. OUR
APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT IS
THAT IF WE EVER HAVE TO MAKE A
CLAIM UNDER AN INSURANCE POLICY
THEN IN ALMOST EVERY CASE THE
BUSINESS HAS FAILED IN SOME WAY”
• Andy Kirby:
Group Insurance Risk Manager
Carillion plc.
Risk Management Services
Risk ManagementRemoving the Mystery
A Practical Introduction to Risk Management and
Enterprise Risk Management
Ray Mattholie- CRM, FIIRM, FCII
Oman, March 2015
Risk Management Services
Risk Management - Removing the Mystery
Agenda
• The story of RM
• The story of ERM
• The story of REM
Risk Management Services
Risk Management - Removing the Mystery
Agenda
• The story of RM
• The story and Overview of ERM
• The story of REM
– Case studies and anecdotes
• Outlining a model ERM Program
• Applying the principles of RM to insurance and
risk financing
• Conclusions and Q&A
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The First Risk Manager?
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The First Risk Manager?
“It is not about predicting the
future, but about being
prepared for it.”
Pericles, Greek statesman, ~500BC
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Risk Management Services
The First Risk Manager
Douglas Barlow
1907-1998
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Hazard Risk Management Process
Risk Financing
Risk Control
Risk Evaluation
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The Total Cost of Risk
•
•
•
•
Insurance
Uninsured Losses
Risk Mitigation
Admin Costs
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The Total Cost of Risk
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Famous Risk Quotes- FRQs
‘All Management is Risk Management’
- Douglas Barlow
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The 6 Decades of RM
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60’s- The First Risk Manager
70’s- Captives blossom
80’s- Risk Management as a Profession
90’s- Wider adoption of RM
00’s- Enterprise Risk Management
10’s- Strategic Risk Management….?
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FRQs
• Jerry: ‘What makes them think you are a risk
management expert?’
• George: I guess it’s on my resumé
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The 5 decades of REM
• Chemicals
– 1972-1991
• Communications
– 1992-2003
• Conglomerate
– 2003-2007
• Consultant
– 2008- ?
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Definitions
• Risk is:
– something that impacts on objectives
• Risk Management is:
– “A logical and systematic method of identifying,
analysing, assessing, treating, monitoring and
communicating risks in a way that will enable
organisations to minimise risk and maximize
opportunities”
危
機
Risk Management Services
ERM Defined
• ERM is:
– A comprehensive, organization-wide set of
processes and procedures used to document and
manage risk. This process takes into account an
organization’s strategic goals as well as its
operational goals including an understanding of the
current internal control environment.
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ERM Described
• A risk-based approach to managing an
enterprise, integrating concepts of internal
control, (the Sarbanes Oxley Act) and strategic
planning. ERM is evolving to address the
needs of various stakeholders, who want to
understand the broad spectrum of risks facing
complex organizations to ensure they are
appropriately managed. Regulators and debt
rating agencies have increased their scrutiny
on the risk management processes of
companies.
Risk Management Services
The Holistic View of Risk
Strategic
Risk
Financial
Risk
Enterprise
Risk
Operational
Risk
Hazard
Risk
Risk Management Services
The Holistic View of Risk
Strategic
Risk
Financial
Risk
Enterprise
Risk
Operational
Risk
Hazard
Risk
Risk Management Services
Defining Enterprise
1. Project or undertaking, especially one that
requires boldness or effort;
2. Participation in such projects;
3. Readiness to embark on new ventures;
boldness or energy;
4. Initiative in business- the enterprise culture;
5. A company or firm
Enterprise-Wide?
Enterprise-wise?
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FRQ
• “People can dismiss enterprise-wide risk
management but to our thinking, that’s just
putting your head in the sand”
– Rick Buy, EVP & Chief Risk Officer, Enron
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Major steps in the growth of ERM
• 2002- Sarbanes Oxley ('Public Company Accounting
Reform and Investor Protection Act' )-response to
major accounting scandals Enron, WorldCom, Tyco
etc.
• 2004- COSO (Committee of Sponsoring
Organizations) issued ‘ERM- Integrated Framework’
• 2007- SEC Guidance ‘Top down’ risk assessment
• 2007- S&P reviews RM in corporate debt ratings for
financial companies, and in…
• 2009- S&P begins to review in rating all companies
• 2009- ISO 31000 International RM Standard
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COSO Framework
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‘A structured approach to ERM
and the requirements of ISO 31000’
•
•
•
•
Risk has an upside and a downside
What RM involves
How should it be implemented
What it can achieve:
– Compliance with governance requirements
– Assurance to ‘stakeholders’
– Improved decision making (= risk taking!)
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Risk Management Process7 Rs and 4 Ts
• recognition or identification of risks
• ranking or evaluation of risks
• responding to significant risks
–
–
–
–
•
•
•
•
tolerate
treat
transfer
terminate
resourcing controls
reaction planning
reporting and monitoring risk performance
reviewing the risk management framework
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Steps in Implementing ERM
• Board mandate and commitment
• RM Policy- updated regularly
• RM Procedures- Risk assessment in all
strategy papers and projects
• Risk appetite and tolerances
• Establishing a Risk Register
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Risk Register ‘musts’
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Reflects views of Executive
Constantly reviewed and updated
Every risk has an owner
‘Heat Map’ Impact and Likelihood ratings
Clear definitions of ratings
Mitigation measures identified
Inherent and Residual
Regular reporting to Board/Audit Committee
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FRQs
• ‘It takes about 20 years to build a reputation
and 5 minutes to ruin it…’
– Warren Buffett
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Risk Register ‘desirables’
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•
•
•
•
Reputational Risk
Risk appetite
Risk tolerance
Risk velocity
Emerging risks
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FRQ
• ‘There are known knowns. These are things
we know that we know.
There are known unknowns. That is to say,
there are things that we know we don't know.
But there are also unknown unknowns. There
are things we don't know we don't know.’
– Donald Rumsfeld
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WEF Global Risks Review- 2015 results
Likelihood
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Interstate conflict
Extreme weather events
Failure of national governance
State collapse or crisis
Unemployment or
underemployment
Natural catastrophes
Failure of climate-change
adaptation
Water crises
Data fraud or theft
Cyber attacks
Impact
• Water crises
• Weapons of mass destruction
• Interstate conflict
• Energy price shock
• Failure of climate-change
adaptation
• Fiscal crises
• Unemployment/underemployment
• Biodiversity loss and ecosystem
collapse
• Spread of infectious diseases
• Critical information infrastructure
breakdown
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FRQs
• ‘A black swan is by definition a surprise.
Nevertheless, people tend to concoct
expectations for them after the fact’
– Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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Creating a Risk Register
•
•
•
•
Creating a greater awareness of key risks
Worst case scenarios – specific, not generic
Strategic focus - what could impact objectives
Starting the risk mapping process
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Risk Summary Report 11 October 2011
XYZ Inc
Categories: All
Risk Management Services
Risk Summary Report 11 October 2011
XYZ Inc.
Categories: All
Risk Management Services
Risk Summary Report 11 October 2011
XYZ Inc.
Categories: All
Risk Management Services
RRR- Risk ‘Dashboard’
Likelihood
70% & >chance occurring in
a year (occur once per year)
Financial
Reporting
50% - 69% chance occurring
in a year (occurs once/twice
every 2 yrs.)
30% - 49% chance
occurring in a year (occurs
once/twice every 3 yrs.)
Failure to
Uncompetitive
Deliver Growth
Cost Base
Corporate
Governance
10% - 29% chance occurring
in a year (an event that
occurs once/twice in a 10yr
period )
Service from
Outsource
Providers
Business
Process
Management
Key
Structure of
Employees the Business
Dependency
Employee
Engagement
4% - 5% chance occurring in
a year (occurs once/twice of
working life)
Informatio
n Security
Loss of Site
Misappropriation
of Assets
Less than 4% chance
occurring in a year (an event
that occurs once in life span
of a human being)
IT
Infrastructure
Control of
Working
Capital
Loss of IT
Employee
Retention
Change
Management
Major
Litigation
(excl. E&O)
E&O
Claims
Management
of Markets
Bribery &
Corruption
Money
Laundering
Net Impact
£0 - £0.1m
of PBT
Appetite Shell Key
£0.11M £0.25M of
PBT
= Within Appetite
= New/Emerging Risks
£0.26m £0.75m of PBT
£0.76M £1.5M of PBT
= Below Appetite limits
= Connected Risks
£1.51M £5.0M of PBT
= Outside Appetite
£5.01M £10M of PBT
£10.01M £25M of PBT
= Significantly Outside Appetite
>£25M of PBT
= Appetite not Rated
= Direction of travel
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RRR- Risk ‘Radar’
Risk Register/Dashboard
Impact
Watching
Brief
STRATE
GIC
LEGAL &
COMPLIANCE
Failure to Deliver
Growth
Structure of
Business
Uncompetitive
Cost Base
SERVICE AND
MARKETS
Bribery & Corruption
Major Litigation (excl E&O)
Failure of Corporate Governance
Money Laundering
E&O Claims
Information Security
Business Interruption
Management of Markets
Service from Outsource Providers
Inadequate Management of
working Capital
Change Management
OPERATIONS
Business Process Management
FINANCIAL
Financial
Reporting
Misappropriation
of Assets
Employee
Retention
Employment Engagement
Key Employees Dependency
IT infrastructure
instability
Loss of IT
IT
PEOPLE
Risk Management Services
Completing a Risk Tolerance Statement –
the process flow
1. Current
ranked risk
register
2. Top
risks
selected
8. Reassess risks
every 6 months
and feedback into
the risk register to
repeat the cycle:
- Residual risk
- Tolerance
- KRIs
7.
Monitoring
of KRIs
3. Identify
owners of
each top
risk
6. At regular risk
management meetings,
management will present for
discussion:
- Completed Risk Tolerance
Statements for top risks
- The Risk Tolerance
Summary
4. Tolerance
Statements should
be drafted by owners
which include:
- Business objective
- Risk tolerance
- KRIs
- KRIs limit
5.
CompletedNote1
Tolerance
Statements
must be
discussed by BU
management
Note 1: This will also require
CEO/CFO signoff on the relevant
business objectives
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Appendix 2
Mock up Risk Tolerance Summary for the top risks (A hypothetical BU risk register)
Risk Event
Residual Risk Status
(Insignificant, Minor,
Moderate, Major or
Catastrophic)
Risk Tolerance Level
(VH, H, M, L or VL)
E.g. Interruption to systems and
network services
Moderate
VL
E.g. Mass scale food poisoning /
foreign objects/ allergens in sold
products
Minor
VL
E.g. Major investment of competitors
on store expansion, upgrade, store
revamp plus investment on advertising
may reduce our market share.
Moderate
L
Description of Tolerance Level
The risk tolerance level is Very Low. We expect compliance on all group
IT policies and can only tolerate a minimal system downtime (at most no
more than 4 hours / year for level 1 and 10 hours / year for level 2 IT
systems) provided there is full data restoration upon system recovery.
(See Appendix 4)
The risk tolerance is Very Low as such events have the potential to
result in fatalities. As such the BU focuses heavily on this to avoid the
risk through full compliance with our containment measures at all times
and through continuous test checking on ingredients / dishes. We will
accept no more than 5 minor reported incidents provided these do not
result in public concerns. (See Worked example #3 on page 33)
Our risk tolerance is Low. Given that the competitors are backed by
strong conglomerates, we will monitor them very closely. Our market
share growth rate has been 10% over the last 5 years leading to our
current share of 23%. Growth needs to be at 30% per annum to
increase market share by our targeted 2%. We would not expect growth
to be less than 20%.
We will continuously monitor the 1) brand equity index, 2) the difference
in the number of store openings / under re-modelings and 3) share-ofspending on advertising etc., and develop a response plan to achieve
our objectives. (See Worked example #5 on page 35)
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Risk Management Services
The 5 decades of REM
• Chemicals
– 1972-1991
• Communications
– 1992-2003
• Conglomerate
– 2003-2007
• Consultant
– 2008- ?
Risk Management Services
Risk Management Services
Case Study #1 - Chemicals
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•
•
•
•
•
Captive formed in 1920’s
Bermuda Captives in 1960’s
Risk Engineering team
Rating plan
Responding to difficult to insure risks
Insurance or Risk Management?
Risk Management Services
Case Study #1- Chemicals
•
•
•
•
Insurance or Risk Management?
1983-1991 Risk Manager C-I-L inc
1988 President of Ontario Chapter of RIMS
Risk Management ‘Evangelist’
Risk Management Services
The 5 decades of REM
• Chemicals
– 1972-1991
• Communications
– 1992-2003
• Conglomerate
– 2003-2007
• Consultant
– 2008- ?
Risk Management Services
FRQs
“640k should be all, that
any application will ever
need”
(Bill Gates, 1981)
“The global demand for cars
will never be above 1 million
– simply because there are not
enough chauffeurs”
(Gottlieb Daimler, 1901)
“Nobody will be able to rise
into the air with a metal
airplane within the next 50
years”
(Wilbur Wright, 1901)
Risk Management Services
Case Study #2 - Communications
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•
•
•
•
Privatization – Maggie Thatcher’s legacy
‘POTS’ to dot.com
Global ambitions
Risk management challenges
3G licence auction
Risk Management Services
Case Study #2 - Communications
• Captive – Continuous development
• Risk assessment is key
– Business interruption
– ‘e-Risks’
• Forming partnerships
• Communicating Risk Management
• Corporate governance - Turnbull
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3G - Risk and Opportunity
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Corporate Governance in the UK
•
•
•
•
UK’s “Enrons” were in the 80’s
‘Turnbull’ / The Combined Code
Code of Practice v Legislation
“Effective Risk Management ….. Key
component of Corporate Governance”
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Embedding Risk Management in BT
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•
•
•
Board Audit Committee driven
Risk culture  RM as core competence
Group Risk Register  Finding the next 3G
Risk Management ‘Champion’
Risk Management Services
BT Group Risk Manager’s Role
• Job Description agreed with BAC
– To create a risk aware culture
– To develop a Centre of Excellence for managing
risks
– To establish and maintain an effective process for
identifying, evaluating, managing key risks
• Reporting to Finance Director
• Access to Main Board
Risk Management Services
BT Group Risk Register
Risk Review Panel Members
• Group Risk Manager
(Chair)
• Group Chief Internal
Auditor
• Company Secretary
• Director, Group
Financial Control
• Group Treasurer
• Director, Human
Resource Strategy
• Chief Information
Officer
• Manager, Strategic
Planning
• Manager, Corporate
Finance
• Director of Security
Risk Management Services
BT Group Risk Register
Risk Panel
Management Council
Board
Board Audit Committee
Risk Management Services
FRQ’s
The willingness to take risk is
essential……..(if all) invested
only in risk-free assets, the
potential for business growth
would never be realized”
Alan Greenspan, 1994
Risk Management Services
The 5 decades of REM
• Chemicals
– 1972-1991
• Communications
– 1992-2003
• Conglomerate
– 2003-2007
• Consultant
– 2008- ?
Risk Management Services
Risk Management Services
Risk Management Services
Risk Management Services
Jardine
Matheson
Group
Jardine Lloyd Thompson Group plc
Risk Management Services
Risk Management Services
Risk Management of Jardine
• “Risk Aware, not Risk Averse”
Risk Management Services
Quote from the Taipan…
• “We have the ability to identify and
nurture the right people with the
skills to build our businesses; and
we are ready to take calculated
risks and make bold decisions.”
– Anthony Nightingale, 2011 Annual
Address to Senior Executives of JM
Risk Management Services
The Holistic View of Risk
Strategic
Risk
Financial
Risk
Enterprise
Risk
Operational
Risk
Hazard
Risk
Risk Management Services
Role of Group Risk Management in JLT
Championing
“best practice”
Risk Management
Strategic
Risk
Financial
Risk
Enterprise
Risk
Operational
Risk
Hazard
Risk
Coordinating
Group Risk
Financing
Risk Management Services
Championing “Best Practice” Risk
Management
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•
•
•
•
RM Committees
Report to Board
ERM Steering Group
Captive Audit and Risk
Risk Forum
Championing
“best practice”
Risk Management
Strategic
Risk
Financial
Risk
Enterprise
Risk
Operational
Risk
Hazard
Risk
Coordinating
Group Risk
Financing
Risk Management Services
Risk Management Services
ERM in JM
• Is Not:
– Regulatory driven
– Bureaucratic
– “One size fits all”
• Is:
– Business owned
– Emphasis on “Enterprise”
– Work in progress
Risk Management Services
The 5 decades of REM
• Chemicals
– 1972-1991
• Communications
– 1992-2003
• Conglomerate
– 2003-2007
• Consultant
– 2008- ?
Risk Management Services
Case Study # 4- Consultant
• RM Risk Management Limited
– Independent consultancy
– Risk Management reviews
• Non executive Directorships
– JLT Canada
– Lockhart Insurance, Bermuda
• Chair of Audit and Risk Committees
Risk Management Services
Case Study # 4: NED
=‘Creative Contributor’
• Role of the Non-Executive Director
• Cadbury Report 1992 ‘they should bring an
independent judgment to bear on issues of
strategy, performance, and resources including
key appointments and standards of conduct’
• Functions of the NED
–
–
–
–
–
Independence
Impartiality
Wide experience
Specialist knowledge
Personal qualities
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Case Study # 4: Audit & Risk Committee
• Composition:
– Depends on corporate status and jurisdiction, but
common theme is requirement of independent nonexecutive directors
• Responsibilities and roles:
–
–
–
–
–
Oversight of financial reporting and accounting
Oversight of the external auditor
Oversight of regulatory compliance
Monitoring effectiveness of internal control process
Oversight of risk management
Risk Management Services
Case Study # 4: Audit & Risk Committee
• Composition:
– Depends on corporate status and jurisdiction, but
common theme is requirement of independent nonexecutive directors
• Responsibilities and roles:
–
–
–
–
–
Oversight of financial reporting and accounting
Oversight of the external auditor
Oversight of regulatory compliance
Monitoring effectiveness of internal control process
Oversight of risk management- incl Risk Register
Risk Management Services
Developing a Risk Management Strategy
• Gaining consensus with internal partners
– The Virtual Team
• Aligning with strategic objectives
– Emphasis on Enterprise
• Implementing as part of overall ERM
• Communicating internally & externally
Risk Management Services
Developing a Risk Management Strategy
• Gaining consensus with internal partners
– The Virtual Team
• Aligning with strategic objectives
– Emphasis on Enterprise
• Implementing as part of overall ERM
– Keep it simple!
• Communicating internally & externally
Risk Management Services
Developing a Risk Management Strategy
• Gaining consensus with internal partners
– The Virtual Team
• Aligning with strategic objectives
– Emphasis on Enterprise
• Implementing as part of overall ERM
– Keep it simple!
• Communicating internally & externally
– Championing ‘best practice’
Risk Management Services
FRQs
• “The policy of being too cautious is the
greatest risk of all”
– Jawaharlal Nehru
Risk Management Services
Why Enterprise Risk Management is Important
• Company policy?
• Corporate governance?
• Stakeholder expectations?
• Reducing insurance costs?
• Avoiding uninsured
losses?
• Taking the right risks
Risk Management Services
FRQs
• ‘Only those who risk going too far can possibly
find out how far one can go’
– T.S. Eliot
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Conclusions
– Cultivating the Culture of ERM
• Command
• Collaborative
• Continuity
• Communication & Clarity
• Customization
• Contribution
• commitment from the top
• committee or Steering
Group, the ‘virtual team’
• ongoing development &
refinement
• Avoiding ‘Risk Fatigue’
• keep it simple and clearly
understood
• fitting with the corporate
culture
• to Strategic Focus and
Planning
Risk Management Services
Risk Management Services
Risk Management- Removing the Mystery
Agenda
• The story of RM
• The story and Overview of ERM
• The story of REM
– Case studies and anecdotes
• Outlining a model ERM Program
• Applying the principles of RM to insurance
and risk financing
• Conclusions and Q&A
Risk Management Services
Exercise
Consider what you have heard so far on RM and ERM,
and think of ways it could support your approach to
risk financing and insurance purchase, including:
• making decisions on risk retention
• Marketing insurance renewals
• Choosing insurers, brokers and consultanants
Risk Management Services
FRQs
• ‘There are worst things in life than death. Have
you ever spent an evening with an insurance
salesman?’
– Woody Allen
Risk Management Services
(Consider introducing a break-out exercise at this
stage during Day 2 event for clients and
prospects).
Possible topic:
Consider what you have heard so far on RM and
ERM, and think of ways it could support your
approach to risk financing, insurance purchase and
risk retention.
Risk Management Services
Hazard Risk Management Process
Risk Financing
Risk Control
Risk Evaluation
Risk Management Services
Coordinating Group Risk Financing
•
•
•
•
Informed risk retention
Long term relationships with insurers
Strategic partnership with brokers/consultants
Proactive approach
to claims
Strategic
Financial
Championing
“best practice”
Risk Management
Risk
Risk
Enterprise
Risk
Operational
Risk
Hazard
Risk
Coordinating
Group Risk
Financing
Risk Management Services
Informed risk retention
• Risk evaluation
– Effective risk identification, quantification and
control provides confidence to retain risk
• ‘Swapping $’ with insurers is short-termism
• Corporate cover should be aimed at significant
balance sheet damage
• Those who understand and are prepared to retain their
own risks are preferred customers
• Building a data base of losses to focus risk control
Risk Management Services
Long term relationships with insurers
• Benefits:
– Building their confidence in quality of your risks
– Lower admin costs = preferred customer status
– Minimising impact of market volatility- more
predictable cost
– Loyalty will be rewarded in claims negotiations
• Key ways to build:
– Know your underwriters
– Invite to visit your risks (beyond risk engineering)
– Consider annual renewal ‘Roadshow’
Risk Management Services
Strategic partnerships with brokers/consultants
• Thinking long term enables:
– Investment in time and effort to build a true
understanding of your business, its risks and culture
– Development of effective long term risk financing
strategies
– Creation of innovative solutions
– Tailoring of policy wordings to your needs
– Exploring wider services- e.g. risk management
– Strong support in major claims or disputes
Risk Management Services
Strategic partnerships with brokers/consultants
• Separate reviews/RFPs for broker
appointments from marketing to insurers
–
–
–
–
Don’t just choose on price
Look for range of services offered and innovation
Think 5 year terms (3 yrs minimum)
Do they have the expertise in Oman?
• Managing the relationship
– Clear understanding of role and timelines
– Consider a ‘Service Level Agreement’ (SLA)
– Carry out stewardship reviews at least annually
Risk Management Services
Proactive approach to claims
• An often neglected aspect of insurance- this is
after all why you buy it!
• If you can, choose your loss adjuster
• Establish a claims process- for major or minor
• Educate your organisation on claims reporting
• Track/monitor all claims (incl ‘near misses’)
• Share experiences to drive future loss control
Risk Management Services
Conclusions
• RM should be about maximising opportunities
– Be Risk Aware, not risk averse
• Keep it simple and relevant to the organisation
– Avoid complicated processes and bureaucracy
• Remember the origins of RM responded to
Hazard or Insurable risk
– Don’t take a short-term view
– Understanding your risks enables creative, stable
and long term risk financing solutions
Risk Management Services
Conclusions
• RM should be about maximising opportunities
– Be Risk Aware, not risk averse
• Keep it simple and relevant to the organisation
– Avoid complicated processes and bureaucracy
• Remember the origins of RM responded to
Hazard or Insurable risk
– Don’t take a short-term view
– Understanding your risks enables creative, stable
and long term risk financing solutions
– Choose your Risk Partners wisely!
Risk Management Services
Thank you!
Ray Mattholie
ray@rm-rm.com
Risk Management Services
Suggestions for Further Reading
• A structured approach to ERM and the requirements of ISO 31000
– Airmic publication
• Against the Gods- the remarkable story of risk
– Peter L Bernstein
• The Black Swan
– Nassim Nicholas Taleb
• Enterprise Risk Management for Dummies
– RIMS Bookshop
• Taipan
– James Clavell
• World Economic Forum Global Risk Review
– www.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Global_Risks_Report15
Risk Management Services