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Modified for EC 204 by Bob Murphy
PowerPoint® slides by Ron Cronovich © 2011 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved
the main participants in securities markets
the difference between primary and secondary markets
factors that affect firms’ decisions about which securities to sell and savers’ decisions about which securities to buy
the Efficient Markets Hypothesis
how people can use derivatives for hedging or speculation
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Mutual funds : hold a diverse set of securities, sell shares to savers
Hedge funds : buy assets with funds raised from wealthy savers and with borrowed funds, largely unregulated
Brokers : buy and sell securities for their clients
Dealers : buy and sell securities for themselves
Investment banks : underwrite and market new securities, assist in mergers and acquisitions, engineer new types of securities
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Pension funds
Accept payments from workers and employers, use the funds to buy securities
Provide payments when workers retire
Insurance companies
Use premiums to buy securities
Commercial banks
Buy securities (though most deposited funds are used to make loans)
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Many financial firms engage in several businesses, e.g. Merrill Lynch is an investment banker and broker.
Two key events leading to consolidation:
1999 Repeal of Glass-Steagall Act, which had separated commercial and investment banking
2007-2009 financial crisis, during which healthy institutions bought weak ones
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Early 2000s: Leading investment banks began issuing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) backed by subprime mortgages (made to borrowers with poor credit). These borrowers had to pay high interest rates, so MBS promised high returns.
2006: Housing prices fell, sharply increasing defaults among subprime borrowers.
Subprime MBS lost value, causing huge losses for the institutions that owned these securities.
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Early 2008: Investment bank Bear Stearns was nearly bankrupt, couldn’t raise funds it needed to pay its obligations, was purchased by JP Morgan
Chase.
September 2008: Lehman Brothers in trouble, couldn’t raise funds, couldn’t find a buyer, so Lehman declared bankruptcy and defaulted on its bonds and loans.
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Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley held fewer MBS, so they sustained fewer losses.
They reorganized and received emergency loans from the Federal Reserve.
Merrill Lynch was purchased by Bank of America, though it still operates as broker and investment bank.
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Public company : a firm that issues stock and bonds that are traded in financial markets
Primary markets : markets in which firms and governments issue new securities
Initial public offering (IPO) : the sale of new securities
Secondary markets : markets in which existing securities are traded
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Investment banks underwrite IPOs
thoroughly screen the issuing companies
buy the initial shares, resell to other institutions, earn huge fees
Investment banks’ reputations are important, especially when the issuing firms are unknown
Buyers of IPOs often resell the securities in secondary markets, where they are subsequently traded
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Exchange : a physical location where brokers and dealers meet, e.g. New York Stock Exchange
Over-the-counter (OTC) market : a secondary market with no physical location
Dealer market : an OTC market in which all trades are made with dealers over computer networks, e.g. NASDAQ
Electronic communications network (ECN) : an OTC market where buyers and sellers trade directly, without a dealer taking a cut
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Stock market index : the average price of a group of stocks.
Examples:
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), includes 30 “blue-chip stocks”
Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500, includes the 500 largest U.S. companies
NASDAQ index, includes all stocks traded in the NASDAQ
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Should a firm issue stocks or bonds? If bonds, should it issue short-term or long-term bonds?
Capital structure : the mix of stocks and bonds that a firm issues
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Modigliani and Miller (M and M) theorem : the proposition that a firm’s capital structure does not matter
To raise $100, a firm could sell new bonds or new shares of stock; in either case, the firm sacrifices future income to the buyer of the asset.
According to the classical theory of asset prices, the present value of these payments must equal
$100, whether the asset is stock or bonds.
So, the firm should be indifferent between issuing stock or bonds.
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Taxes
Interest payments are deductible, so the more bonds a firm issues, the lower its tax bill.
Issuing stock does not affect its tax bill.
Bankruptcy
In a bad year with low earnings, debt-financed firms at risk of bankruptcy if they cannot make payments on their bonds.
Equity-financed firms at lower risk of bankruptcy, since not obligated to pay dividends.
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Adverse selection
Some firms have strong prospects, others do not, savers lack information to tell the difference.
Weak firms may exploit this and offer shares at a price that exceeds the p.v. of future earnings.
Fearing this, savers may avoid buying any shares.
Then, strong firms cannot sell shares at a fair price.
Less of a problem for bond finance:
As long as the firm remains solvent, it will pay bond buyers their fixed payments, so people more comfortable buying bonds than stock.
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Firms choose bond maturities based their ability to pay off the bonds
Long-term debt appropriate for financing projects that will generate income over the long term, e.g. factories
Short-term debt (e.g. commercial paper) better for short-term needs, e.g. bridging the gap between costs from production and revenue from sales
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Stocks have higher average returns than bonds:
During 1900-2009, annual real return was 8% on stocks and
2% on bonds
Stocks are riskier than bonds:
During 1900-2009, stock returns were less than –10% in 17 years and near –40% in two years.
Returns on Treasury bonds were never this low.
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Setup:
Real return on bonds = 2% every year
Half the time, the real return on stocks is 22%, half the time, it is –6%
s = fraction of wealth in stocks,
(1 – s) = fraction of wealth in bonds
Let’s see how return and risk depend on s….
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scenario return on wealth in general s(return on stocks) + (1 – s)(return on bonds) if stock returns high s(22%) + (1 – s)(2%)
= 2% + s(20%) if stock returns low s( –6%) + (1 – s)(2%)
= 2% – s(8%) on average ½ [2% + s(20%)] + ½ [2% – s(8%)]
= 2% + s(6%)
The higher is s, the greater the average return on wealth
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Average return depends on s. What about risk?
A simple way to measure risk: difference between return on wealth when stock return is high and return on wealth when stock return is low :
[2% + s(20%)] –
[2% – s(8%)]
= s(28%)
Risk is higher when s is higher
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Return and risk for different values of s: s return = 2% + s(6%) risk = s(28%)
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
2.0%
3.5%
5.0%
6.5%
8.0%
0%
7%
14%
21%
28%
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One view: pick randomly!
Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH) : no stock is a better buy than any other.
EMH is based on the classical theory of asset prices and rational expectations: every stock’s price equals the p.v. of its expected future dividends, and expected dividends are the best possible forecasts of future dividends.
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EMH implies stock prices follow a random walk : stock price movements are unpredictable.
Prices respond only to news (new information) that changes expectations of future earnings/dividends.
News, by definition, is unpredictable, so price changes must also be unpredictable.
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Price of Boeing stock = $50 = p.v. of dividends.
News: United Airlines has ordered 50 planes.
This news raises the p.v. of Boeing’s expected earnings and dividends to $52.
At the $50 price, Boeing stock is undervalued.
Large buyers (e.g., mutual funds, pensions) buy as much Boeing stock as they can (which drives up its price), until it is no longer undervalued.
This process happens very quickly, before most people learn of the news.
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Actively managed mutual fund : buys and sells stocks based on its analysts’ research and its managers’ expertise
Index fund : buys all the stocks in a broad market index, matches the market return and does not employ analysts
Actively managed funds try to “beat the market,” which according to EMH is impossible to do consistently.
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In the five years ending 12/31/2009,
S&P 500 outperformed 61% of actively managed large-cap funds
S&P MidCap 400 outperformed 77% of actively managed mid-cap funds
S&P SmallCap 600 outperformed 67% of actively managed small-cap funds.
Additionally, actively managed funds have higher expenses than index funds.
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Derivative : an asset whose payments are tied to the prices of other assets
Three types of derivatives:
futures, options, credit default swaps
Two uses of derivatives:
hedging : reducing risk by purchasing an asset that is likely to pay a high return if an asset you already have pays a low or negative return
speculation : using financial markets to make risky bets
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Futures contract : an agreement to trade an asset for a specified price on a specified future date, the delivery date
Example: A wheat farmer wants to hedge against the risk that wheat prices will fall before her harvest is ready, and a miller wants to hedge against the risk that wheat prices will rise before the current crop is ready. The farmer sells the miller a futures contract, and both eliminate their risk by locking in the future price today.
There are futures for securities and commodities.
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Call option : allows its owner to buy a security at a specified price, the strike price, any time until the option’s expiration date.
Put option : allows its owner to sell a security at a specified strike price on any date before the option expires.
Example: To protect yourself against a fall in stock prices, buy put options on stocks you own.
If stock prices fall, exercise the option to limit your losses.
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NOW YOU TRY:
You paid $2 per share to buy a call option on Microsoft stock. The strike price is $40 and the option expires on December 30.
In each of the following scenarios, would you exercise the option? Why or why not?
scenario today’s date Microsoft stock price today a.
Dec. 29 $45 b.
c.
d.
Dec. 29
Nov. 15
Nov. 15
$41
$35
$45
ANSWERS:
scenario today’s date Microsoft stock price today
Dec. 29 $43 a.
Yes, buy at $40, sell at $43 for quick profit.
b.
c.
Dec. 29 $41
Yes, loss is $1 per share if you exercise option, $2 per share if you do not.
Nov. 15 $35
No, you would lose money, and price might rise d.
rise before the option expires.
$45
It depends. Exercise option to lock in a quick profit, or wait if you think price will rise further.
Credit Default Swap (CDS) : pays its buyer in the event of default on a particular debt instrument
(e.g. bond or mortgage)
Example: A bank hedges against the risk one of its mortgage borrowers will default by purchasing a
CDS that pays off in that event
CDSs are like insurance, except that the people who trade them need not have any relation to the underlying debt instrument.
CDS are not traded on an exchange, but are negotiated privately b/w buyer and seller
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Securities firms are companies whose primary purpose is to hold securities, trade them, or help others trade them.
Examples include mutual funds, hedge funds, brokers, dealers, and investment banks.
Corporations issue securities in primary markets through investment banks, whose underwriting reduces the problem of adverse selection.
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After securities are issued, they are traded in secondary markets, including exchanges, dealer markets, and electronic communication networks.
Firms can finance investment by issuing stocks or bonds. The mix of the two that a firm chooses is called its capital structure.
Savers split their wealth among classes of assets such as stocks and bonds. Stocks have higher average returns than bonds, but are riskier.
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The efficient market hypothesis states that every stock’s price is the best estimate of its true value. News that alters this true value will alter the stock’s price. But since news cannot be predicted, stock prices follow a random walk.
Derivatives are assets whose payoffs are tied to other assets. Examples include futures, options, and credit default swaps.
People and firms use derivatives to hedge against possible losses, or to speculate in hopes of earning huge profits.
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