Introduction to Demography
SUBAITA ZUBAIR
Introduction
 Population growth is the single most important set of events ever to
occur in human history, “the most revolutionary phenomenon of our
times” as Spanish philosopher Gasset put it more than 70 years ago
(Gasset 1932).
 Population has changed and continues to alter the way of life in even
the most remote corners of the earth.
 No matter how much you may have heard about declining birth rates, it
is still true that the number of people added to the world each day is
unprecedented in history and unparalleled in its consequences.
 There are more highly educated people than ever before, yet also more
illiterates;
 more rich people, but also more poor;
 more well-fed children, but more hunger-ravaged babies whose images
haunt us.
 We have better control over the environment than ever before, but we
are damaging our living space in ways we are afraid to imagine.
What Is Demography?
 Demography is the scientific study of human populations.
 The term itself was coined in 1855 by Achille Guillard, who used it in
the title of his book Éléments de Statistique Humaine ou Démographie
Comparée.
 The word he invented is a combination of two Greek words: demos,
which means people, and graphein, which means to write about a
particular subject (in this instance, population).
 Guillard defined demography as “the mathematical knowledge of
populations, their general movements, and their physical, civil,
intellectual and moral state” (Guillard 1855).
 Modern demography is the study of the determinants and
consequences of population change and is concerned with virtually
everything that influences or can be influenced by these following
factors.
 Population size (how many people there are in a given place)
 Population growth or decline (how the number of people in that
place is changing over time)
 Population processes (the levels and trends in fertility,
mortality, and migration that are determining population size and
change and which can be thought of as capturing life’s three main
moments: hatching, matching, and dispatching)
 Population distribution (where people are located and why)
 Population structure (how many males and females there are of
each age)
 Population characteristics (what people are like in a given place, in
terms of variables such as education, income, occupation, family and
household relationships, immigrant and refugee status, and the many
other characteristics that add up to who we are as individuals or groups
of people).
Demographics & Pakistan
 Demographic statistics of a country is essential for drafting the plans,
frame work of economic policies and judging the growth and
development.
 Pakistan is among those developing countries where population growth
is fairly high. At present it is the sixth most populous country in the
world with projected population of 188 million.
 The population growth rate in Pakistan is 1.95 percent which is higher
than average growth rate of South Asian countries.
 The major cause behind higher growth rate is high fertility rate
Pakistan Population Density
Ethnic Groups
Why Is Demography Important?
 Demography affects nearly every facet of your life in some way or
another. Population change is one of the prime forces behind social
and technological change all over the world.
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Nearly Everything Is Connected to Demography
Terrorism and Regional Conflict
Embracing and Hating Immigration
Globalization
Degradation of the Environment
The Danger of Demographic Fatigue
Nearly Everything Is Connected to Demography
 Demography is a force in the world that goes hand in hand with every
improvement in human well-being that the world has witnessed over
the past few hundred years. For example:
 Children survive like never before
 Adults are healthier than ever before
 Women can limit their exposure(lake of protection) to the health risks
involved with pregnancy and still be nearly guaranteed that the one or
two or three babies they have will thrive to adulthood
 Demographic change does demand a societal response, but different
societies will respond differently, sometimes for the better, sometimes
not.
 The population of the world is increasing by more than 200,000
people per day, but this growth is much more intense in some areas of
the world than in others.
 In those places where societies have been unable adequately to cope,
especially with increasing numbers of younger people, the fairly
predictable result has been social, economic, and political instability.
Terrorism and Regional Conflict
 One reaction to population growth is to accept or even embrace the
change and then seek positive solutions to the dilemmas presented by a
rapidly growing younger population.
 Another reaction, of course, is to reject change. This is what the Taliban
was trying to do in Afghanistan, to forcibly prevent a society from
modernizing and, in the process, keeping death rates higher than they
might otherwise be.
 The migration of poor rural peasants to the cities of Iran, especially
Tehran, contributed to the political revolution in that country in 1978
by creating a pool of young, unemployed men who were ready recruits
to the cause of overthrowing the existing government (Kazemi 1980),
and this pattern has been repeated throughout the region.
 The impact of the “youth bulge”(according to fuller 1995 and
heinsohans 2003 youth bulge theory ,high population especially of
young adult male leads to unrest, conflict ,violence , war and
terrorism)there is need to build partnership with youth through
education , employment and engagement) has been the subject of
research for a long time (Cincotta et al. 2003; Moller 1968; Staveteig
2005), but having a large population of young men does not
automatically lead to conflict. Rather, the evidence suggests that such a
demographic situation is incendiary (Choucri 1984), ripe for
exploitation by those who choose to take advantage of it.
 Throughout sub-Saharan Africa, the large number of children,
enmeshed in poverty and often orphaned because their parents have
died of AIDS, provides recruits for rebel armies waging warfare against
 Those children who resist the army recruiters may find themselves sold
into slavery (The Economist 2001), which is part of a larger global
problem of child trafficking (International Labour Office 2003).
 This kind of abuse of children is not caused by demographic trends, but
the demographic structure of society contributes to the problem by
creating a situation where children are available to be exploited (Bell
2006).
Embracing and Hating Immigration
 The youthful age structure produced by high fertility may engender
violence, but low fertility is not without its problems.
 The transition from higher to lower fertility in North America, Europe,
and East Asia, as well as Australia and New Zealand, has created a
situation in all of these parts of the world in which the younger
population is declining as a fraction of the total population, creating
holes in the labor force and concerns about who will pay the taxes
needed to fund the pensions of the older population.
 But, since the rich countries have jobs available and needs people to
pay taxes, one answer in the short term is immigration.
 Canada has been the country most welcoming of immigrants, at least
on the basis of immigrants per resident population, with Asians being
the largest group entering Canada (a pattern followed also in Australia).
 The United Kingdom has large immigrant populations from India,
Pakistan, and the Caribbean. Europeans, however, are not necessarily
in favor of this trend.
Globalization
 Most broadly, globalization can be thought of as an increasing level of
connectedness among and between people and places all over the
world.
 However, the term has taken on a more politically charged dimension
since many people interpret it to mean a penetration of less-developed
nations by multinational companies from the more-developed nations.
 This trend is promoted by the removal of trade barriers that protect
local industries and by the integration of local and regional economies
into a larger world arena. Globalization exists, in essence, because of
the nature of world demographic trends.
Degradation of the Environment
 As the human population has increased, it’s potential for disrupting the
earth’s biosphere(the totality of living organism and their enviorment)
has grown in tandem( an arrangement of two more objects arranged
one behind another). We are polluting:
 The atmosphere (producing problems such as global warming, acid
rain, and holes in the ozone layer);
 the hydrosphere (contaminating the fresh water supply, destroying
coral reefs, and fishing out the ocean);
 the lithosphere( the outer layer of the the earth) (degrading the
land with toxic waste and permitting topsoil loss,
desertification(process by which a geographical region becomes desert
or because of any sort of climate changes), and deforestation).
 This degradation is caused by our intensive use of resources, which has
dramatically increased our standard of living over the past 200 years.
 Worldwide, the gap has been increasing between rich and poor
countries, especially between the very richest and the very poorest.
 Can we reduce worldwide poverty and not further degrade our
environment in the face of continued population pressure? No one
really knows the answer to that question
 We want to feed more people, and feed them better than we are
currently doing. It is often argued that there is, in fact, plenty of food in
the world, but it is just not properly distributed to the places that need
it. Water is also an issue. More than half a billion people already face
water scarcity, and an additional two to three billion live in areas that
are water-stressed.
The Danger of Demographic Fatigue
 In the face of nearly persistent population pressure, as we continue to
add tens of millions of people per year to the world’s total, there is the
danger that those of us who live in more-developed countries will tire of
and turn our backs on the less developed countries, where population
growth continues to create one problem after another.
 Our rates of growth may be low, but the “silent explosion” (Appleman,
1965) continues in the rest of the world. Although we live in a
demographically divided world, we in the rich countries were the ones
who lit the fuse on the population bomb, and increasing globalization
demands that we remember that there is no such thing as “their”
problem, all problems are ours (and theirs) to deal with together.
How Will You Use This Information?
 Demographic is the term that has become associated with practical
applications of population information and this can be a veritable
treasure trove for you to mine.
 Because you live in a social world, many if not most of the decisions
that you have to make about life involve people, and when the issues
relate to how many people there are, and where they live and work, and
what they are like, demographics become part of the decision-making
process, allowing you to lay out a systematic strategy for achieving your
own goal whether your challenges relate to business, social, or political
planning.
 We can talk simply about the numbers and characteristics of people
(their “demographic”), but we are more often interested as well in
where they live or work or play. When we add this spatial element we
are talking about geodemographics, geodemography, or spatial
demography, which is the analysis of demographic data that takes
into account the location of the people being studied.
 Demography is an inherently spatial science because cultural
similarities lead to similarities in demographic behavior and culturally
similar people often live close to one another.
Following are the concerns which will be discussed:
 Demographics of Politics
 Demographics of Social Planning
 Demographics of Business
Demographics of Politics
 Demographics are central to the political process in the United States.
 Legislators ask questions about how population growth and
distribution influence the allocation of tax dollars. Will the increase in
the older population bankrupt the Social Security system?
 Would federal subsidies to inner-city areas help lower the
unemployment rate?
 Are undocumented immigrants creating an undue burden on the
criminal justice systems in border counties?
 The demography of the voting-age population within a political district
is a crucial ingredient in winning an election because demographic
characteristics such as age, sex, race, and education are strongly related
to the likelihood of voting and, to some extent, to political preferences”
(Hill & Kent 1988).
 If you know where people with these differing demographics live (and
that’s part of spatial demography), and you know their political party
(which is influenced by demographics), you can improve your chances
of winning an election.
Demographics of Social Planning
 The demographics of the baby boom helped fuel inflation in the United
States during the 1970s. The baby boom is still having an impact on
legislative analysis in the new millennium.
 The big question has become: How will the country finance the
retirement and the health care needs of baby boomers as they age and
retire?
 Most of the richest nations, but also China, is facing similar issues, as
declining fertility and increased longevity have contributed to the
prospect of substantial increases in both the number and percentage of
the older population.
 Demographics are widely used in American society to chart population
movements and plan for social change. When such planning breaks
down, as it often does in cities of third world nations where rapid
population growth is occurring, the result can be a certain amount of
chaos, social foment, and even political upheaval.
 Increased self reliance is another proposed solution: requiring people
when younger to save for their own retirement, through mandatory
contributions to mutual funds and other investment instruments. It
may also be that, when the time comes, taxes will be raised on younger
people in order to bail out those older people who, in fact, did not save
enough for their retirement.
 Demographic conditions can also affect the school district in ways that
go beyond the numbers. Adult immigrants to the United States from
Latin America tend to have substantially lower levels of education than
prevail in the United States.
 When their children start attending school, they may be generally
unable to help them with school work. Since parental involvement is a
key ingredient in student success, school districts are faced with the
need to create new policies and programs to educate immigrant parents
about what their children are experiencing in school.
 Over the years, hospitals and other health care providers have learned that they
have to “reposition” themselves in a classic marketing sense to meet the needs
of a society that is changing demographically (Rives 1997).
 Part of that repositioning has been the shift from medical care (treating the
medically needy) to a more comprehensive health care perspective (keeping
people as healthy as possible, including treating them medically as needed) (Pol
& Thomas 2001).
 Crime, like health, is closely tied to the age and sex structure. Everybody knows
that certain kinds of crimes especially street crimes and drug-related crimes are
more likely to occur in neighborhoods with particular sociodemographic
characteristics (Sampson & Morenoff 2004).
 Religious organizations and private companies employ demographic
researchers to keep track of household preferences in religion so that
churches can respond most effectively to the needs of their members
and can, in essence, “market” themselves to the demographically
appropriate community.
Demographics of Business
 Making a profit in business requires having an edge on your
competitors.
 This may mean that your product or service is better or at least
different in some meaningful way, or it may mean that you have been
able to find and keep customers that your competition has ignored
(using marketing demographics, cluster marketing, and/or
geodemographics),
 Or it may mean that you have found a better location for your business
than have your competitors based on an analysis of demographic data
(site selection demographics, a variation of geodemography).
 Profits are also maximized by investing in the businesses with the
greatest opportunities for growth, based on changing demographics
(investment demographics), as well by being able to employ and
keep the best possible labor force (demographics of human
resource management).
Following topic will be further discussed in demographic of business :
 Marketing Demographics
 Cluster Marketing
Site Selection Demographics
 Demographics of Human Resource Management
 Investment Demographics

Marketing Demographics
 One of the first and still very profitable ways in which demographics
can be used in business is for marketing.
 Demographics are employed to segment and target the market for a
product, an approach so popular it has been suggested that a television
program’s demographic base now determines its commercial success
“far more than sheer audience numbers” (Lilly 2001).
 Segmentation refers to the manufacturing and packaging of products
or the provision of services that appeal to specific sociodemographically
identifiable groups within the population.
 “Consumer markets are segmented on the basis of such demographic
variables as geographic location, rate of product usage, income, age,
sex, education, stage in the family life cycle, religion, race, and social
class.
 Automobile manufacturers are especially famous for segmenting the
market and producing different cars to appeal to different categories of
people.
 Closely related to segmenting (sometimes indistinguishable in the
literature) is the concept of targeting.
 It involves picking out particular sociodemographic characteristics of
people who might purchase what you have to offer, then appealing to
the consumer tastes and behavior reflected in those particular
characteristics.
Cluster Marketing
 Just because you know the sociodemographic target groups for your
business does not mean that you can easily locate and appeal to such
people or households.
 However, the fact that “birds of a feather flock together” has meant that
neighborhoods can be identified on the basis of a whole set of shared
sociodemographic characteristics. This greatly facilitates the process of
marketing to particular groups in a process known as cluster
marketing.
Site Selection Demographics
 One of the most common uses to which demographic data are put is in
helping businesses select a site (Pol and Thomas 1997; Siegel 2002).
This is an extension of the concept of targeting because businesses that
rely on walk-in traffic, for example, naturally prefer a location that is
closest to the maximum number of people who are likely to want to buy
their goods or services.
 Demographics do not represent the sole measure of potential success
access to the site and visibility of the location is also important, but the
population component proximity to your clientele is the single most
important factor for many retail businesses (Albert 1998; Mendes &
Themido 2004).
Demographics of Human Resource
Management
 Manufacturing and service firms also make use of demographics in
selecting sites that meet their human resource needs.
 Knowledge of the optimal sociodemographic characteristics for a firm’s
workers (for instance, males or females, preferred racial or ethnic
groups, required level of education or background) can be crucial in
helping a company decide where it should locate a new plant or facility.
Investment Demographics
 To invest is to put your money to use for the purpose of securing a gain
in income.
 Companies invest in themselves by plowing their profits back into the
company in order to develop new products or expand or change
markets; individuals (and companies also) invest by buying stocks or
bonds of companies viewed as having a profitable future, or by
purchasing real property whose value is expected to rise in the future.

Clearly, a wide range of factors goes into the decision to invest in one
product line, a particular company, or a specific piece of property, but
one very important consideration is future demographic change.
Companies that plan for demographic shifts have a better chance at
success than those that do not.
“AN INTRODUCTION TO CONCEPTS AND ISSUES” 10Th Edition
By; John R.Weeks
CHAPTER 2
GLOBAL POPULATION TRENDS (Review)
About the author
John R. Weeks is Professor of Geography in the
Geography Department at San Diego State
University. His current research includes applications
of remote sensing and GIS to analyze fertility in Arab
nations, demography of the U.S.-Mexico border
region, and geo demography of crime.
Definition of Demography in the field of
Anthropology
The study of human populations and the ways in
which they change, for example the study of how
many births, marriages and deaths happen .
World Population Growth, a brief
history
• Human beings have been around for at least
200,000 years.
• Humans were hunter –gatherers living a primitive
existence marked by high fertility and high mortality
and only very slow population growth.
So it is no surprise that the population of the world
on the eve of the Agricultural revolution 10,000
years ago(8,000 B.C.) is estimated at about four
million. Many people argue that the Agricultural
Revolution occurred slowly but pervasively across
the face of the earth precisely because the huntinggathering populations were growing just enough to
push the limit of the carrying capacity of their way
of life.
• Carrying capacity refers to the number of
people that can be supported in an area given
the available physical resources and the way
that people use those resources (Miller 2007).
• The population began to grow more
noticeably after the Agricultural Revolution.
Between 8000 B.C. and 5000 B.C., about 372
people on average were being added to the
world’s total population each year, but by 500
B.C., as major civilizations were being
established in China and Greece, the world
was adding nearly 139,000 people each year
to the total.
•
Table 1. Population Growth was very slow in the earlier years of human existence, but has accelerated in the past
250 years.
•
Year
Population (in millions)
8000
•
4
5000
•
5
3000
•
14
2000
•
27
1000
50
•
500
100
•
1
211
•
2015
7,219
•
2050
•
9,076
The population data from 8000 through 1940 are drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau, International Programs
Centre, and “Historical Estimates of the World Population”.
• By the time of Christ (the Roman Period, A.D.)
there may well have been more than 200
million people on the planet, increasing by
more than 300,000 each year. There was some
backsliding in the third through fifth centuries
A.D., when increases in mortality, due to the
Plague, let to declining population size in the
Mediterranean area as the Roman Empire
collapsed from a combination of flood,
famine, and rebellion.
• The rate of growth began clearly to increase
after that, especially in Europe, and on the eve
of the Industrial Revolution in the middle of
the eighteenth century (about 1750).
• How fast is the world’s population growing
now?
• The rapid growth over the past two hundred
years has been explosive. The rate of growth in
1960 was lower than in 1950. This was due to a
terrible famine in China in 1959-60, which was
produced by Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward
program of 1958, in which the Chinese
government “Leapt forward” into
industrialization by selling “surplus” grain to
finance industrial growth. Unfortunately the grain
was not surplus, and the confiscation of food
amounted to a self-imposed disaster that led to
the deaths of 30 million Chinese in the following
two years (1959 and 1960).
The Power of Doubling
Human populations, like all living things, have the capacity for
exponential increase. A common way of measuring the growth potential
of any combination of birth and death rates is to calculate the doubling
time, the number of years required for a population to double in number
if the current rate of growth continues.
Table 1.1 in one day the world’s population increases by more than
200,000.
Time period
Births
Deaths
Year
133,201,704
55,490,538
Day
364,936
152,029
Hour
15,206
6,335
Minute
253
106
Second
4
2
Source: Based on U.S.Census Bureau, 2007
• The incredible power of doubling can be illustrated by tale of the
Persian chessboard. The story is told that the clever inventor of the
game of chess was called in by the King of Persia to be rewarded for
this marvelous new game. When asked what he would like his
reward to be, his answer was that he was a humble man and
deserve only a humble reward. Gesturing to the board of 64
squares that he had devised for the game, he asked that he be
given a single grain of wheat on the first square, twice that on the
second square, twice that on the third square, and so on, until each
square had its complement of wheat. The king protested that this
was far too modest a prize, but the inventor persisted and the king
finally relented. When the overseer of the Royal Granary began
counting out the wheat, it started out small enough: 1,
2,4,8,16,32……, but by the time the 64th square was reached, the
number was staggering- nearly 18.5 quintillion grains of wheat (
about 75 billion metric tons!)(Sagan 1989). This, of course,
exceeded the “Carrying Capacity” of the royal granary in the same
way that successive doublings of the human population threaten to
exceed the carrying capacity of the planet.
• Why was early growth so slow?
The reason the population grew so slowly during
the first 99 percent of human history was that death
rates were very high, and at the same time very few
populations have ever tried to maximize the number of
children born. During the hunting-gathering phase of
human history, it is likely that life expectancy at birth
averaged about 20 years. At this level of mortality,
more than half of all children born will die before age
5, and the average woman who survives through the
reproductive years will have to bear nearly seven
children in order to assure that two will survive to
adulthood. This is still well below the biological limit of
fertility.
Why Are Recent Increases So Rapid?
The rapid acceleration in growth after 1750 was due
almost entirely to the declines in the death rate that
accompanied the Industrial Revolution. First in Europe
and North America and more recently in less
developed countries, death rates have decreased
sooner and much more rapidly than have fertility
rates. The result has been that many fewer people die
than are born each year.
In the industrialized countries, declines in mortality at
first were due to the effects of economic development
and a rising standard of living-people were eating
better, wearing warmer clothes, living in better
houses, bathing more often, drinking cleaner water,
and so on
• Redistribution of the world’s population through
Migration
In 2010, some 214 million people — 3 per cent of
the world's population — lived outside their
country of origin. The magnitude and complexity
of international migration makes it an important
force in development and a high-priority issue for
both developing and developed countries. The
fact that about half of all migrants are women,
most of reproductive age, is another reason this a
pressing issue for UNFPA. (UNFPA, the United Nations Population
Fund, is an international development agency that promotes the right of every woman, man
and child).
Internal migration within countries is
also on the rise, as people move in
response to inequitable distribution of
resources, services and opportunities, or
to escape violence, natural disaster or
the increasing number of extreme
weather events. The movement of
people from rural to urban areas has
contributed to the explosive growth of
cities around the globe.
A relatively small percentage of migrants — about
10.5 million in 2011 — are refugees fleeing armed
conflict, natural disaster, famine or persecution. But
crises can displace large numbers of people over
short time periods: Between December 2012 and
January 2013, more than 255,000 Syrians fled the
country. In a two year period, the conflict has
displaced some 5 million people, 1 million of whom
are registered as refugees in neighboring countries.
In times of crisis, UNFPA pays particular attention to
the specific, often overlooked, needs of women and
young people.
• The majority of migrants cross borders in search
of better economic and social opportunities.
Economic migrants are the world's fastest
growing group of migrants. Globalization has
increased the mobility of labor, and a decline in
fertility and working-age populations in many
developed countries is leading to a rising demand
for workers from abroad to sustain national
economies. New patterns of migration have
arisen, and many countries that once sent
migrants abroad — for example, Argentina,
Ireland and South Korea — are now experiencing
migrant inflows as well.
One of the most significant changes in
migration patterns in the last half century is
that more women are migrating than ever
before. Women now constitute half the
international migrant population, and in
some countries, as much as 70 or 80 per
cent. As women migrants frequently end up
in low-status, low-wage production and
service jobs and often work in gendersegregated and unregulated sectors of the
economy, such as domestic work.
• Migration is often temporary or circular, and
many migrants maintain links with their home
countries. While migrants make important
contributions to the economic prosperity of
their host countries, the flow of financial,
technological, social and human capital back
to their countries of origin also is having a
significant impact on poverty reduction and
economic development. Remittances from
migrants are a major source of capital for
developing countries.
Remittance flows to developing countries are
estimated to total $406 billion in 2012, an
increase of 6.5 per cent over the previous year.
Global remittance flows, including those to
high-income countries, were an estimated $534
billion in 2012. Possibly twice this amount was
transferred informally. These financial transfers
are growing in significance. In many countries,
they are larger than either development
assistance or foreign direct investment.
Available data show that women send home a
higher proportion of their earnings than do
men. These contributions feed and educate
children and generally improve the living
standards of loved ones left behind.
Attention is being drawn to measures
to counteract the negative effects of
'brain drain', to encourage migrants
to invest in their countries of origin
and bring their knowledge, skills and
technical expertise to the
development process.
Geographical
distribution
and
urbanization
It goes without saying that
populations are scattered across
space.
S#
%
Country
Population
of
world
Date
Source
population
Official
1
China
1,367,470,000
October 24, 2014
population
19%
clock
2
India
1,261,420,000
October 24, 2014
17.5%
3
United States
318,964,000
October 24, 2014
4.43%
Population clock
Official
population
clock
4
Indonesia
252,164,800
July 1, 2014
3.5%
5
Brazil
203,337,000
October,24, 2014
2.83%
6
Pakistan
188,020,000
July 1, 2014
2.61%
7
Nigeria
178,517,000
July 1, 2014
2.48%
8
Bangladesh
157,193,000
October 24, 2014
2.18%
9
Russia
146,149,200
August 1, 2014
2.03%
10
Japan
127,090,000
October 1, 2014
1.77%
Official estimate
Official
population
clock
Official
annual
projection
UN projection[6]
Official
population
clock
Official estimate
Monthly
estimate
official
Population Trends
The world population of 7.2 billion in mid2013 is projected to increase by almost one
billion people within the next twelve years,
according to official United Nations
population estimates (medium variant, 2012
Revision). It is projected to reach 8.1 billion
in 2025, and to further increase to 9.6 billion
in 2050 and 10.9 billion by 2100. This
assumes a decline of fertility for countries
where large families are still prevalent as
well as a slight increase of fertility in several
countries with fewer than two children per
woman on average.
Sharply divergent trends among countries
and regions
Almost all of the additional 3.7 billion
people from now to 2100 will enlarge the
population of developing countries, which is
projected to rise from 5.9 billion in 2013 to
8.2 billion in 2050 and to 9.6 billion in 2100.
Much of the overall increase between 2013
and 2050 is projected to take place in highfertility countries, mainly in Africa, as well as
countries with large populations such as
India, Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines
and the United States of America.
• Population declines expected in 43 countries
In contrast, the population of the more developed
regions is expected to change minimally, passing from
1.25 billion in 2013 to 1.28 billion in 2100. The net
increase is due largely to migration from developing to
developed countries.
Populations of 43 countries or areas are expected to
decrease between 2013 and 2050; of these, 40 are
expected to continue to decrease between 2050 and
2100. Several countries are expected to see their
populations decline by more than 15 per cent by 2050,
including Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cuba, Georgia,
Latvia, Lithuania, Republic of Moldova, Romania, the
Russian Federation, Serbia, and Ukraine.
• Developing countries have large youth cohorts
Currently the population of the less developed regions is still
young, with children under age 15 accounting for 26 per
cent of the population and young persons aged 15 to 24
accounting for a further 17 per cent. The numbers of
children and young people in the less developed regions
are at an all time high (1.7 billion children and 1.1 billion
young people), posing a major challenge for their countries,
which are faced with the necessity of providing education
and employment to large cohorts of children and youth.
The situation in the least developed countries is even more
pressing, as children under age 15 constitute 40 per cent of
their population and young people account for a further 20
per cent. In the more developed regions, children and
youth account for 16 per cent and 12 per cent of the
population, respectively.
• Working-age Cohorts to Rise in Developing Countries, and
Fall in More Developed Regions
In both the more and the less developed regions, the number
of people in the main working ages, from 25 to 59 years, is
at an all-time high: 608 million and 2.6 billion, respectively.
Yet, whereas in the more developed regions that number is
expected to peak in 2013 and decline thereafter, reaching
533 millions in 2050 and 504 million in 2100, in the less
developed regions it will continue rising, reaching 3.7
billion in 2050 and 4.1 billion in 2100. In developing
countries, this population is projected to increase by over
400 million within the next decade. These population
trends point to the urgency of supporting employment
creation in developing countries as part of any strategy to
address the slow economic recovery that the world is
experiencing.
An ageing world
Declining fertility and longer lives
contribute to an older world. Globally,
the number of persons aged 60 or over
is expected to more than triple by 2100,
increasing from 841 million in 2013 to 2
billion in 2050 and close to 3 billion in
2100. Already 66 per cent of the world’s
older persons live in the less developed
regions and by 2050, 79 per cent will do
so. By 2100, this figure will reach 85 per
cent.
Population
by
region
Six of Earth's seven continents
are permanently inhabited on a
large scale. Asia is the most
populous continent, with its 4.3
billion inhabitants accounting for
60% of the world population.
• The world's two most populated countries
alone, China and India, together constitute
about 37% of the world's population.
• Africa is the second most populated continent,
with around 1 billion people, or 15% of the
world's population.
Europe's 733 million people make up
12% of the world's population (as of
2012), while the Latin American and
Caribbean regions are home to
around 600 million (9%).
Northern
America,
primarily
consisting of the United States and
Canada, has a population of around
352 million (5%), and Oceania, the
least-populated region, has about 35
million inhabitants (0.5%).
• Antarctica
has
a
small,
fluctuating
international population, based mainly in
polar science stations. This population tends
to rise in the summer months and decrease
significantly in winter, as visiting researchers
return to their home countries.
• Chinas’s one child policy
• For more than thirty years, China's One Child Policy has
done much to limit the country's population growth.
Here are ten essential facts about China's One Child
Policy:
• 1) China's One Child Policy was created in 1979 by
Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping to temporarily limit
communist China's population growth. It has thus been
in place for more than 32 years.
• 2) China's One Child Policy most strictly applies to Han
Chinese living in urban areas of the country. It does not
apply to ethnic minorities throughout the country. Han
Chinese represents more than 91% of the Chinese
population. Just over 51% of China's population lives in
urban areas. In rural areas, Han Chinese families can
apply to have a second child if the first child is a girl.
3) If a first child is born with birth defects or major health problems, the couple is usually permitted
to have a second child.
4) When the One Child Policy was adopted in 1979, China's population was about 972 million
people. In 2012 the population of China is about 1.343 billion people, 138% growth over that time
period. By contrast, India's population in 1979 was 671 million and in 2012 India's population is
1.205 billion people, which is 180% over the 1979 population. By most estimates, India will surpass
China as the world's most populous country by 2027 or earlier, when both countries' population is
expected to reach about 1.4 billion.
5) If China continues its One Child Policy in the decades to come, it will actually see its population
decrease. China is expected to peak in population around 2030 with 1.46 billion people and then
begin falling to 1.3 billion by 2050.
6) With the One Child Policy in place, China is expected to achieve zero population growth by 2025.
By 2050, China's population growth rate will be -0.5%.
7) China's sex ratio at birth is more imbalanced than the global average. There are about 113 boys
born in China for every 100 girls.
8) For families who observe the One Child Policy, there are rewards: higher wages, better schooling
and employment, and preferential treatment in obtaining governmental assistance and loans. For
families who violate the One Child Policy, there are sanctions: fines, employment termination, and
difficulty in obtaining governmental assistance.
9) Families who are permitted to have a second child usually have to wait from three to four years
after the birth of the first child before conceiving their second child.
10) The recent peak total fertility rate for Chinese women was in the late 1960s, when it was 5.91 in
1966 and 1967. When the One Child Policy was first imposed, the total fertility rate of Chinese
women was 2.91 in 1978. In 2012, the total fertility rate had dropped to 1.55 children per woman.
There is a most striking paradox in global population
trends:
on one hand we have had a rapid decline in fertility for
over two decades in many developing countries - not
to mention the already very low fertility in most of the
highly developed nations; on the other hand we will
almost certainly experience a further massive increase
of the world population. In their most recent
projection ("World Population Assessment and
Projection. The 1996 edition") the United Nations
Population Division projects a global population of
8.04 billion for the year 2025 and 9.37 billion for 2050.
According to this medium variant, an increase of some
2.35 billion people can be expected worldwide
between 1995 and 2025; and an additional 1.3 billion
between 2025 and 2050.
• UN medium variant projection is based on the
assumption that almost all countries worldwide
will have a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of only 2.1 in
2050 at the latest (only for 10, mostly European
countries, the UN assumes a TFR in 2050 that is a
little less - between 1.84 and 2.1).
• This assumption would require a further steep
fertility decline in many developing nations especially in Pakistan, Nigeria, Iran or India,
where the Total Fertility Rates are still far above
the reproductive level of 2.1 children per woman.
• According to the most recent UN estimates,
Pakistan for instance, currently has a TFR of
about 5 children per woman - the medium
variant projection assumes that it will drop to
2.1 during the next 25 years. In other words,
we will only have a world population of about
9.4 billion by 2050, if the Total Fertility Rate,
measured as a global average, declines from
about 3.0 in 1990-95 to the reproductive level
of 2.1 children per woman in 2035-40.
If worldwide fertility would drop to
only about 2.6 children per woman
(instead of 2.1 as assumed in the
medium variant), we would have a
global population of some 8.6 billion
by 2025 and 11.2 billion by 2050.
This would be equivalent to a 2.89
billion increase between 1995 and
2025 and a 2.58 billion increase
between 2025 and 2050.
• Is it possible to completely stop world population
growth during the next few decades?
• Yes, it is - if fertility, worldwide, would decline to 1.57
children per woman, the global population could
stabilize at about 7.5 billion by 2025. This is the result
of the 1996 UN low variant projections. Please note
that this variant assumes a drastic drop of average
fertility to a level of some 24% below replacement - in
all countries worldwide. While such a steep decline, in
fact, already happened in many European countries, it
is rather unlikely that populous developing nations
such as Pakistan, India, Indonesia or Nigeria - which
greatly determine world population growth - would
quickly follow this trend.
Demographic Perspectives
CHAPTER 3
Atifa Durrani
PhD
Ist semester
CHAPTER OUTLINE

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PREMODERN POPULATION DOCTRINES
THE PRELUDE TO MALTHUS
THE MALTHUSIAN PERSPECTIVE
THE MARXIAN PERSPECTIVE
THE PRELUDE TO THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION THEORY
THE THEORY OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION IS REALLY A SET OF
TRANSITIONS
DEVELOPING A DEMOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVE

Two Questions:
1.
2.
What are the causes of population growth (or, at
least, population change)?
What are the consequences of population growth
or change?
TERMS
Demographic
perspective
A way of relating basic information
to theories about how the world
operates demographically
Doctrine
A principle laid down as true and
beyond dispute
A system of assumptions, accepted
principles, and rules of procedure
devised to analyze, predict, or
otherwise explain a set of
phenomena
Theory
PREMODERN DOCTRINES
Date
Demographic Perspective
~1,300 bc
Genesis—“Be fruitful and multiply.”
~500 bc
~360 bc
~340 bc
Confucius—Governments should maintain
balance between population and resources.
Plato—population quality more important than
quantity
Aristotle—population should be limited;
abortion might be appropriate.
PREMODERN DOCTRINES
Date
~100 bc
~400 a.d.
Demographic Perspective
Cicero—population growth necessary to maintain
the Roman Empire.
St. Augustine—abstinence is preferred way to
deal with sexuality; second best is to marry and
procreate.
PREMODERN DOCTRINES
~1280 a.d.
St. Thomas Aquinas—celibacy is not better than
marriage and procreation.
Ibn Khaldun—population growth increases
occupational specialization and raises incomes.
~1380 a.d.
Procreation stimulated by high hopes and
heightening of animal energies.
The Renaissance in Europe began with
•Trade with the Muslim Ottoman Empire
•The receding of the Black Plague
•Growth of cities
PREMODREN DOCTRINE
Columbian Exchange :the exchange of food,
products, people, and diseases between Europe
and the Americas as a result of explorations by
Columbus and others
 Mercantilism: the view that a nation’s wealth
depended on its store of precious metals and that
generating this kind of wealth was facilitated by
population growth
 Physiocratic : the philosophy that the real wealth
of a nation is in the land, not in the number of
people

BEFORE 1492
HISTORICALLY UNPRECEDENTED TRADE 17TH AND
18TH CENTURIES :THE COLUMBIAN EXCHANGE
According to historian Alfred Crosby, the
exchange of plants, animals and
pathogens between the two hemispheres
was biologically “the most spectacular
thing that has ever happened to humans,"
and he coined the phenomenon the
Columbian Exchange
The greatest impact of the Columbian
Exchange was the exchange of different
food crops
DOCTRINE OF MERCANTILISM



The theory that a country’s power depended mainly
on its wealth to build strong navies and purchase vital
trade goods.
Mercantilism had no systematic, comprehensive,
consistent treatise, no leader, common method, or
theory.
Each “mercantilist" sought advantage for a specific,
trade, merchant, joint-stock company or social group.
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
OF MERCANTILISM(16TH AND 18TH C , IN POLAND 17TH C )
Western Europe, particularly England and France
 Generally, Mercantilism is associated with the rise
of the “Nation state.”
 Feudal institutions were weakened by the
increasing use of money and a greater reliance on
exchange within the economy.
 The Protestant Reformation weakened the role of
the church and consequently the civil role of the
state was expanded
 There was a rise of Humanism (the concern for
well-being of humans in the short term).

WHO BENEFITED MOST FROM
MERCANTILISM

Monarchs.

Merchant capitalists.

Joint-stock companies.

Government officials.
SUPPORTERS OF MERCANTILISM




Analyzed series of bill of mortality of demographic data
Graunt, along with William Petty, developed early human
statistical and census methods that later provided a framework
for modern demography. He is credited with producing the
first life table, giving probabilities of survival to each age.
Graunt is also considered as one of the first experts in
epidemiology, since his famous book was concerned mostly
with public health statistics
Sussmilch – Improvements in agriculture and industry would
postpone overpopulation into the future.
DOCTRINE OF PHYSIOCRATS

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
PHYSIOCRACY Begins in 1756
A reaction to mercantilism and to the feudal system of old
regime in France.
Too detail regulation retard development.
Internal toll, taxes and tariffs restrict movement of goods.
Appear in France, at end of mercantilism period.
The school roughly begins in 1756, when Quesnay published
his work Tableque Economique.
MAJOR TENETS OF PHYSIOCRATIC
Natural order
 Laissez-faire
 Emphasis on agriculture
 Taxation of the landowner
 Interrelatedness of the economy

SCHOOL
(1)1NATURAL ORDER





Introduced the idea of natural order.
Term physiocrat itself means “rule of nature”.
Law of nature governs human society.
All human activities should be brought in harmony
with these natural laws.
In economy – the law of nature is that individuals have
the right to enjoy the fruits of their own labor.
(2)LAISSEZ-FAIRE



Means “let people do as they please without
government interference.”
Government interference should only to the extent
protecting life and property and to maintain freedom
of contract.
Physiocrats opposed feudal, mercantilist and
government restriction. Favor freedom trade at home
and abroad.
(3)EMPHASIS ON AGRICULTURE
Industry, trade and profession were useful but
sterile.
 Only agriculture was productive, because it
produces surplus.
(4)Taxation of landowner



Only landowner should be taxed.
Direct tax on the landowner was preferable to indirect
tax, because they were passed along to others
(5) INTERRELATEDNESS OF THE ECONOMY

Quesnay, in particular and other physiocrats analyzed the
circular flow of goods and money within the economy
WHO BENEFIT FROM PHYSIOCRATIC SCHOOL?




The peasants.
Due to their idea of Laissez-faire, physiocrats were promoting
industry.
They favored capitalistic farms.
Their emphasis on agriculture and free internal trade helped
big producers.
MODERN THEORIES
Date
Demographic Perspective
1798
Malthus—population grows exponentially, food
supply grows arithmetically; poverty is the result in
the absence of moral restraint.
~1800
Neo-Malthusian—birth control measures are
appropriate checks to population growth.
~1844
Marxian—each society has its own law of
population that determines consequences of
population growth; poverty is not the natural result
of population growth.
INFLUENCES ON MALTHUS
The writings of the Marquis de Condorcet were
an important precursor to Malthus’s Essay on
Population.
 William Godwin – Scientific progress would
increase the amount of food far beyond what
was possible at the time.

MALTHUS’S PRINCIPLE OF POPULATION
The essential element was that population
grew geometrically while food increased
arithmetically
MALTHUS’S PRINCIPLE OF POPULATION
Checks to growth

positive checks
Causes of mortality. – War, pestilence, famine

preventive checks
All possible means of birth control, including
abstinence, contraception, and abortion.
MALTHUS’S PRINCIPLE OF POPULATION
moral restraint
According to Malthus, the only acceptable
means of preventing a birth: postpone
marriage, remaining chaste in the meantime.
 Means of subsistence – Ultimate check to
growth

MALTHUS’S IDEA ABOUT MORAL RESTRAINT
 Postpone
 Marry
marriage
only when you can afford children
THE MALTHUSIAN PERSPECTIVE



Malthus argued that people have a natural urge to
reproduce, and the increase in the food supply cannot
keep up with population growth.
The major consequence of population growth,
according to Malthus, is poverty.
Within that poverty is the stimulus for action that can
lift people out of misery.
MALTHUS’S THEORY REFLECTS HIS TIMES



End of 18th c: population was increasing, wages were
falling
Assumes primarily agricultural society with limited
technological innovation (at the cusp of the Industrial
Revolution), where laborers spent most income on
food (bread)
Fertility levels depended on marriage age and
frequency; fertility control within marriage not
generally “within the calculus of conscious choice”
MALTHUS’S CONTRIBUTION TO POPULATION
THEORY GENERALLY



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Lays out system of population and economic dynamics
(fertility vs. mortality, individual well-being and the
broader economy)
Sets forth premise that rising population reduces
living standards, due to diminishing returns
Pessimistic about science and innovation solving
problems from increasing population
Neo-Malthusians: Adopt Malthus’s pessimistic
perspective about “overpopulation,” see birth control
as preventive check
CRITIQUES OF MALTHUS
 Assertion
that food production could not keep
up with population growth.
 Conclusion that poverty was an inevitable result
of population growth.
 Belief that moral restraint was the only
acceptable preventive check.
CRITIQUES OF MALTHUS..CONTIN



Didn’t foresee changes in transportation and trade
Didn’t foresee the revolutionary role of contraceptives;
not even the possibility that couples would decide to
limit the sizes of their families in response to changing
socioeconomic conditions
He didn’t foresee the massive emigration out of Europe
to new lands in the West and East
NEO MALTHUSIAN
Even though Malthus’s assumptions were incorrect, some
theorists (“Neo-Malthusians”) warn that a Malthusian
catastrophe could still occur, resulting in a world-wide
shortage of food.
 Neo-Malthusians make three important points…
(1)SUSTAINABILITY: When the population reaches 10 billion,
there may be problems keeping up with food demand.
 Soil erosion
 Soil nutrient loss
 Depletion of irrigation sources (water)
 Soil salinization (salt accumulation)

……………CONTINUED
(2)INCREASING Per Capita DEMAND FOR FOOD: Globally,
the amount of food consumed per person is rising.
(3)Natural Resource Depletion:
Natural resources that are being depleted include:
 Timber
 Minerals
 Energy
 Other non-renewables
INFLUENTIAL NEO MALTHUSIANS
Many ‘Neo-Malthusians’ still feel that
population growth will still outrun the food
supply, and that the world will not be able to
continue supporting a growing population”
 Two major voices: Paul Ehrlich (The Population
Bomb – best seller)And Garrett Hardin (tragedy
of the commons).

THE MARXIAN PERSPECTIVE
 Each
society at each point in history has
its own law of population that determines
population growth.
For capitalism, the consequences are
overpopulation and poverty.
For socialism, population growth is
readily absorbed by the economy with
no side effects.
MARX ON MALTHUS

Marx
 Malthus's "natural law of population” only
natural in capitalist societies
 Poverty is the result of the evils of social
organization.
 saw Malthusian point of view as outrage
against Humanity
PRELUDE TO DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
THEORY

The population –growth controversy , initiated
by Malthus and fueled by Marx reformulated
to prevailing theories of demography.

Important contributions by John Stuart Mill,
Arsène Dumont, Émile Durkheim
JOHN STUART MILL




Basic thesis was that the standard of living is a major
determinant of fertility levels.
The ideal state is that in which all members of a
society are economically comfortable.
Fear of slipping socially was a motivation to limit
fertility
People do not “Propagate like Swine”87
ARSÈNE DUMONT


Late 19th century French demographer who
discovered a new principle of population called “social
capillarity”.
◦ The desire of people to rise on the social scale, to
increase their individuality as well as their personal
wealth.
To ascend the social hierarchy requires that sacrifices
be made.
ÉMILE DURKHEIM
Based an entire social theory on the
consequences of population growth.
 Population growth leads to greater societal
specialization, because the struggle for
existence is more acute when there are more
people.
 View of population growth similar to Khaldun.

MODERN THEORIES
Date
Demographic Perspective
1945
Demographic transition in its original form—the
process where a country moves from high birth and
death rates to low birth and death rates.
1962
Earliest studies suggesting the need to reformulate
demographic transition theory.
1963
Demographic response made by individuals to
population pressures is determined by the means
available to them to respond; causes and
consequences of population change are
intertwined.
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND RESPONSE
First response people will likely make to
the population growth resulting from a
decline in mortality is to work harder.
Second response would be to migrate.
THEORY OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION




Developed in the 1940s to explain the historic shifts
in birth and death rates that accompanied shifts from
“traditional” to “modern” society (at least in industrial
countries)
Emphasizes the importance of economic and social
development.
Leads first to a decline in mortality and then to a
commensurate decline in fertility.
Based on the experience of the developed nations,
and derived from the modernization theory.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: STAGES


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
The High birth rate and high death rate – pre-industrial
Europe
High birth rate and declining death rate – Present-day
Sub-Saharan Africa and many parts of Asia
High birth rate low death rate – Tropical Latin
America, Some African Countries
Declining birth rate and low death rate – e.g.
Argentina, China
Low birth rate and low death rate –Western world
and Japan
CRITIUQE 1 APPLICABLE TO DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES?


Demographic Transition Theory was developed to
explain historical phenomena in the West
Dem. Transition vs. Malthusian theory:
 Both link population growth with economic
develoment
 Malthus: dev’t requires lower fertility
 Dem. Transition: dev’t results in lower fertility
CRITUQE 2. ETHNOCENTRIC ASSUMPTIONS
(ACCORDING TO ROBBINS)




Assumes historically that fertility rates always and everywhere
have been high, in order to balance high death rates
Assume that pre-industrial societies would not/could not
control their own fertility
Assumes that the only way to control fertility rates is Western
medical & contraceptive model
Therefore, resistance to adopt contraception is irrational,
religious, traditional or fatalistic. Contraception is rational and
modern.
CRITUQE 3. CHICKEN OR EGG?


Marxist theorists maintain that capitalist expansion
causes increased populations, in part to create a
labor surplus enabling access to a large and cheap
labor supply;
Demographic transition theorists say that the people
themselves are the cause of overpopulation because
they persist in “traditional” approaches to their own
fertility.
CRITUQE.4 WEALTH FLOWS THEORY



Children can still contribute to economy of the
household (extended family);
Family security: providing for the elderly; security in
times of need (by increasing the number of
cooperating individuals)
Increase political allies/clans
 All rational reasons based on the ability of children
to contribute positively to an extended family
household.
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE AND RESPONSE

First response people will likely make to the
population growth resulting from a decline
in mortality is to work harder.

Second response would be to migrate.
MODERN THEORIES
Date
Demographic Perspective
1968
Easterlin relative cohort size hypothesis —
successively larger young cohorts put pressure on
young men’s relative wages, forcing them to make a
tradeoff between family size and overall well-being.
Decomposition of the demographic transition into
1971–
its separate transitions—mortality, fertility, age,
present
migration, urbanization, and family and household.
EASTERLIN RELATIVE COHORT SIZE HYPOTHESIS
The standard of living you experience in late
childhood is the base from which you evaluate
your chances as an adult.
 If you can improve your income as an adult
compared to your childhood level, you are more
likely to marry early and have several children.

MODERNIZATION THEORY

Macro-level theory that sees human actors as being
influenced by changing social institutions.
 Individuals did not deliberately lower their risk of
death to precipitate the modern decline in
mortality.
 Society wide increases in income and improved
public health infrastructure brought about this
change.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: A SET OF
TRANSITIONS
1.
2.
Mortality transition -shift from deaths at
younger ages due to disease to deaths at
older ages due to degenerative diseases.
Fertility transition- the shift from natural (and
high) to controlled (and low) fertility.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: A SET OF
TRANSITIONS
3.
4.
Age transition- social and economic reactions as
societies adjust to constantly changing age
distributions.
Migration transition - Growth in the number of young
people in rural areas will lead to an oversupply of
young people looking for jobs, which encourages
people to leave in search of economic opportunity.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: A SET OF
TRANSITIONS
5.
6.
Urban transition - begins with migration from rural to
urban areas and morphs into urban “evolution” as
most humans are born in, live in, and die in cities.
Family and household transition - brought about by
structural changes that accompany longer life, lower
fertility, an older age structure, and urban instead of
rural residence.
DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
 SOURCES
OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
 Population Censuses
 Census of United States
 Census of Canada
 Census of Mexico
 REGISTRATION OF VITAL EVENTS
 ADMINISTRATIVE DATA
 SAMPLE SURVEY
 Demographic Surveillance Systems
 How
many people live in a society
 How they are distributed geographically
 How many are being born
 How many are dying
 How many are moving in
 How many are moving out
 Social, psychological, economical and
physical characteristics of people and places
 Census
of population
 Vital statistics
 Population registers
 Sample surveys
 Administrative data
 Historical data
Identification of how many people were under
their rule, who the taxpayers were, wanted to
identify potential laborers and soldiers.
 Most direct way is to count them and when you
do that you are conducting a population census
 United Nations defines a census of population as
“the total process of collecting, compiling and
publishing demographic, economic and social
data pertaining, at a specified time or times, to
all persons in a country or delimited territory”
(United Nations 1958:3)

The term census comes from the Latin for
“assessing” or “taxing”
 For Roman, it meant a register of adult male
citizens and their property for purposes of
taxation, the distribution of military obligations,
and the determination of political status.
 In the seventh century A.D., the Prophet
established a city-state and one of his first
activities was to conduct a written census of the
entire Muslim population in the city which was
total of 1,500.
 Doomsday Book (William after conquering
England)
 Catasto in Northern Italy (Venetians &
Florentines)

 French
political philosopher (late 17th
century)
 Do you the number of men who compose
your nation? How many men, and how many
women, how many farmers, how many
artisans, how many lawyers, how many
tradespeople, how many priests and monks,
how many nobles and soldiers? What would
you say of a shepherd who did not know the
size of his flock?......A king not knowing all
these things is only half a king.
The term statistics is derived from the German
word meaning “facts about a state.”
 1749….Sweden was one of the first of the
European nations to keep track of its population
regularly with the establishment of a combined
population register and census.
 1790……first census was conducted in the US.
 1801……England launched its first modern
census.
 Later, questions about age, marital status,
whether and how people were employed,
literacy were also included.
 Census data + statistics have become the “lenses
through which we form images of our society.”

 In
Germany, the enumeration of 1983 was
postponed to 1987.
 Didn’t conduct another census until 2002
 Protests occurred in England, Switzerland &
Netherlands
 The census scheduled for 1980s, in
Netherland, cancelled after a survey
indicating that majority of urban population
would not cooperate and no census has been
taken since.
 UN
provided financial and technical aid
 Between 1958 and 1964, 78% of the world’s
population (including China) was enumerated
by census
 Sub-Saharan Africa and central Asia (least
enumerated)
 China
and India conducted census at
beginning of 21st century
 In Nov 2000, the Chinese government
undertook most ambitious census in the
world history
It counted its 1.26 billion inhabitants
 12% more than 10 years earlier
 Involved 10 millions volunteer and government
enumerators
 Equivalent to the entire population of Belgium
 1.35 billion

 The
first census of India was conducted in
1881 under the supervision of the British
 Second census was conducted in the year
2001
 The year 2001 saw India well into its second
100 years of census
 The Indian census used “only” 2.2 million
enumerators to count 1.027 billion Indians
 21% increase in population compared to 10
years earlier
3
broad ethnic groups
1. Hausa-Fulani (north)
2. Yoruba (southwest)
3. Ibo (southeast)
 1952 census
 1962 census (North 30%)
 1963 “recount” (North 67%)
 Ibo declaring independence
 Biafran war (1967-70)
 3 million people lose their lives before Ibo
rejoined the rest of Nigeria
 1973
census rejected
 1991 census
 Official census count was 88.5 million people
 Well below the 110 million that many
population experts had been guessing in the
absence of any real data
 2006 census completed
 130 million
 2013 census
 173.6 million
Not been enumerated since 1932
 Under French colonial rule
 Equal number of Christian and Muslims
 Political strife between groups
 Census: sensitive political issue
 Civil war 1980s
 4.5 million (2014)

 Census
conducted in Virginia in the early
1600s
 Population census has been taken every 10
years since 1790
 Constitutional mandatory
 Was to find out more than just how many
people there were
 Head of family, free white males aged 16
years and older, free white females, slaves
and other person
 Reflected social importance of those
categories
 For
the first 100 years, population
enumerated by U.S. marshals
 In 1880, special census agents were hired for
the first time
 In 1902, the Census Bureau became a
permanent part of the government
bureaucracy
 In
1920, Interest in international migration
 Foreign-born population
 In 2000, grandparents as caregivers,
replacing question on fertility
 Race and ethnicity (Multiracial)
 Previous (single category of race)
 Later (able to identify themselves as being of
mixed or multiple origins)
 Hirschman,
Alba, and Farley (2000) suggest
replacing the racial category in the census
with the question about “origins”, which may
be more socially meaningful way of looking
at the issue of minority status within the
society
 Zuberi (2001) argues that because race is a
social construct rather than a biological fact,
it should be treated differently than it
currently is in social statistics
Economy: Household
 From 1790 through 1930, all questions were
asked of all applicable persons
 In 1940, the Census Bureau began its practice of
asking only a small number of items of all
households (sample)
 No important loss in accuracy
 In 2000, there were 281 million people counted
in more than 100 million households
 Sampling of 1 out of every 6 household received
detailed questionnaire
 Still yielded data from nearly 50 million people

 First
page: everyone in the household be
listed by name
 First person listed: someone in the household
who owns, is buying or rents housing unit
 Head of house hold or householder
 Information is then requested for each
person in the household regarding his or her
relationship to the first person listed
 Short form: characteristics of the housing
unit, sex, racial, ethnic identification, age,
year of birth, marital status and Hispanic/
Latino/ Spanish origin
 De
facto population
 De jure population
 Usual residence
 Combination
of undercount and over count
 Net census undercount (difference between
the undercount and over count)
 Differential undercount
 In US, differential undercount has meant that
racial/ethnic minority groups (especially
African Americans) have been less likely to
be included in the census counts than the
whites
 Coverage
improved, having better address
identification
 High-profile advertising campaign design to
encourage high response to the mail-out
questionnaire
 67 % responded to mailed questionnaire
 Non-Response Follow-Up (NRFU) phase of
data collection
 Problem
in accuracy of census data
 Non-response to particular question
 In accurate response
 In accurate information recorded
 Glitch in the processing (coding, data entry,
or editing)
 If
any of the data in a census are collected
on a sample basis, then sampling error is
introduced into the results
 Differences: between the characteristics of
the sampled population and the larger group
from which the sample was chosen
 Sampling error can be controlled
 Samples can be designed to ensure
comparable levels of error across groups or
across geographic areas
 First
census: 1666 (King Louis XIV)
 Door to door enumeration (3,215 settlers)
 Series of war between England and France
 1763: France ceded Canada to England
 Several regions of Canada were united under
the British North America Act of 1867
 The Act specified that censuses were to be
taken regularly to establish the number of
representatives that each province would
send to the House of Commons
First census: 1871
 Similar censuses: 1851 & 1861
 1905: the census bureau became a permanent
government agency, now known as Statistics
Canada
 1941: Canada began using sampling
 1956: Canada conducted its first quinquennial
census
 1971: Canada mandated that census be
conducted every five years
 U.S. Congress passed similar legislation in the
1970s but never funded those effort
 Stayed with decennial census

35.16 million
 Two
census forms are used in Canada
 Short form with just few key items and a
detailed form
 2001 & 2006: long form went to a sample of
20% of Canadian households
 Public opinion influences census activities in
Canada
 1996 census of Canada: questions on unpaid
household activities because of Saskatoon
Housewife’s protest
 Canadian
government decided that the
number of children born to a woman might
be too private to be asked
 1941: asked on every decennial census
 No longer included in census
 Several questions about language – split
between English and French speakers nearly
tore the country apart in the 1990s
 Detailed questions: race/ethnicity, place of
birth, citizenship and ancestry
 1116:
Aztec empire keep count of population
for tax purposes
 1790: Spain conducted several censuses in
Mexico during the colonial years
 1821: Mexico gained independence from
Spain
 1895: first of the modern series of national
censuses was undertaken
 1900: second enumeration, since then every
10 years
 From
1895 through 1970s, the census
activities were carried out by the General
Directorate of Statistics
 There were no permanent census employees
 1980 census: bureaucracy was reorganized
 1983: the instituto nacional de estadistica,
geografia e informatica (INEGI) became the
permanent government agency in charge of
the census and other government data
collection
 2000:
Fewer questions than U.S. and Canada
 2000 census: first in Mexico to use a
combination of the basic questionnaire
administered to most households
 A lengthier questionnaire administered to a
sample households
 Most of the questions were asked of most
households
 Sample involved asking 2.2 million
households (10% of total) to respond to a set
of more detailed questions about topics
included in the basic questionnaire
 Less
income detail is obtained in Mexico than
in Canada or the U.S.
 Socioeconomic categories are more often
derived from outward manifestations of
income, such as housing quality, and material
possessions owned by members of the
households
 Most Mexicans = “mestizos”
 No questions are asked about race or
ethnicity
 Diversity in the question about language
Vital events
 Vital statistics

Most useful when
combined with census
data
Registration of vital events in Europe began as a
chore of the church
 Priests often recorded: baptisms, marriages,
deaths
 Historical demographers: used the surviving
records to reconstruct the demographic history
of parts of Europe
 Demographically important: recording of the
burials that occurred in England during the many
years of the plague

In the early 16th century, the city of London
ordered that the number of people dying be
recorded in each parish, along with the number
of christenings
 London Bills of Mortality (1592): these records
(or “bills”) were printed and circulated on a
weekly basis during particularly rough years
 Between 1603 & 1849: these records were
published weekly
 Initially, information about deaths indicated only
cause
 But early 18th century: age was also noted

 Middle
of the 19th century: civil registrations
of births and deaths became compulsory and
an office of vital statistics was officially
established by the English government
 Birth and deaths were standardized in US
 Complete vital registration systems:
developed countries
 least complete (often nonexistence) system:
least developed countries
although most nations have separate systems of
birth and death registration, dozen of countries,
mostly in Europe, maintain population registers:
list of all people in the country
 Each name recorded with vital events: birth,
death, marriage, divorce, change of residence
 Administrative purpose: legal identification of
people, election rolls, calls for military services
 Demographic purpose: provide life history for
each individual

An important source of information about
immigration to the US is the compilation of
administrative records filled out for each person
entering the country from abroad
 These forms are collected and tabulated by U.S.
Citizenship and Immigration Service (USCIS)
 Administrative records of the U.S. Social Security
Administration provide some clues about the
number and destination of such individuals
because many people who leave the country
have their social security checks follow them

2
major difficulties with using data collected
in the census, by the vital statistics
registration system, or derived from
administrative records
1. They are usually collected for purposes
other than demographic analysis and thus
do not necessarily reflect the theoretical
concerns of demography
2. They are collected by many different
people using different methods and may be
prone to numerous kinds of error
Sample surveys are frequently used to gather
demographic data
 Social, psychological, economic and even
physical data to understand why things are as
they are
 By using careful selected sample of even a few
thousand people, demographers have been able
to ask questions about births, deaths, migration
and other subjects that reveals aspects of “why”
of demographic events rather than just the
“what”
 In some poor or remote areas of world, sample
surveys can provide data of fertility, mortality
and migration in the absence of census or vital
registration data

 In
Africa, many people are born, live and die
without a single written record of their
existence because of the poor coverage of
censuses and vital registration system
 To provide a way of tracking, an in-depth
network has been created that works with
individual countries to select one or two
defined geographic regions that are
representative of a larger population
 Census conducted in these regions, keeping
track of all records
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


The root cause of increase in world’s population is
declining mortality and increasing fertility
Mortality is under controlled due to betterment in
health care and control over disease
Here by it is stated that mushrooming of human
population is the unintended by-product of declining
mortality, which has changed almost every thing in the
world.
So, to understand the world around you it is necessary
to know that how the health and mortality transition
came about and what this means for the future.





Health and death are two sides of the same coin –
morbidity and mortality,
Morbidity refers to the prevalence of disease in
population
Mortality is the patter of death
The link is quiet obvious to us – the healthier you are,
the longer you are likely to live.
High death rate in past and current advancement






In much of the world and for most of human history, life
expectancy probably fluctuated between 20 and 30 years
At this level of mortality, only about two-thirds of babies survived
to their first birthday, and only about one-half were still alive at
age five.
This means that one half of all deaths occurred before age five. At
the other end of the age continuum, around 10 percent of people
made it to age 65 in a pre-modern society.
Thus, in the pre-modern world, about one-half the deaths were to
children under age five and only about one in 10 were to a person
aged 65 or older.
Poor nutrition cause of death (hunter-gatherer)
Control over environment by domestication of plants and animals
brought changes in human population




Life expectancy 22 Y in Roman era, majority of the children
born did not survive to adulthood. In general people died at
a younger, rather than an older age
Roman Empire began to break up by the 3rd century. Period
from 5th - 15th Centuries represents middle ages. In Europe
improvement in nutrition raised the life expectancy to 30 Y.
In Europe between 1346-1350 1/3rd of population may
have perished from Plague (Black Death) which spread west
from Asia.
As Cipolla says, “For more than three centuries epidemics of
plague kept flaring up in one area after another. The
recurrent outbreaks of the disease deeply affected European
life at all levels—the demographic as well as the economic,
the social as well as the political, the artistic as well as the
religious”




The plague retreated (rather than disappeared)
probably as a result of “changes in housing, shipping,
sanitary practices, and similar factors affecting the way
rats, fleas, and humans encountered one another”
By the early nineteenth century, plague had receded
and as increasing income improved nutrition, housing,
and sanitation, life expectancy in Europe and the
United States was approximately 40 years.
Infectious diseases were still the dominant reasons for
death, but their ability to kill was diminishing
Death rate began to decline in the middle of 19th
century but at first it was very slow. Famines were
frequent in Europe - Irish potato famine in late 1840’s
and Swedish harvest failure of early 1860’s, major
epidemics out break, Spanish Influenza (20 Million
deaths)


Soap, cotton, clothing, disease knowledge
and information, diet pattern, hygienic
changes, medical improvements, public
health knowledge, clean water, toilets,
bathing facilities, systems of sewerage all
contributed in decrease in mortality rate.
Paris in validating the germ theory claimed
that public health is largely a matter of
preventing the spread of disease


World wide mortality has declined due to
control of communicable disease, but some
major historical events of last century had
resulted in huge human loss e.g. World War I
& II
After this event socio-economic development
was a precursor to improve health in the
developed societies, flow of medical
technology and knowledge was from
developed to the developing countries.




Improvements in health and medical care can only postpone
death to older ages; we are not yet able to prevent death
altogether. There are two ways to accomplish the goal of
postponing death to oldest possible ages: (1) preventing
diseases from occurring or from spreading when they do occur;
and (2) curing people of disease when they are sick.
Prevention of disease is aided by improved nutrition, both in
terms of calories and in terms of vitamin and mineral content;
clean water to prevent the spread of water-borne disease and to
encourage good personal hygiene.
Smallpox has been eliminated as a disease from the world
(although there are reportedly still vials in laboratories) as a
result of massive vaccination campaigns, and polio is very nearly
eradicated after a two-decade campaign of worldwide
vaccination by the World Health Organization
This wide range of options available for pushing back death
reveals the complexity of mortality decline in any particular
population.



It used to be obvious that the poor were skinny and only the rich
could afford to be fat. It is not true even in poorer countries
where obesity is rapidly becoming a health problem. Nutrition
transition is marked worldwide shift toward a diet high in fat and
processed foods and low in fiber, accompanied by lower levels of
physical exercise, leading to corresponding increases in
degenerative disease.
It is obvious that people living in the wealthier societies of the
world are larger in size than ever before in history. More
importantly, modern society, even in poorer nations, is
increasingly associated with obesity and with less active lifestyles
than ever before, and these factors threaten to limit our ability to
push life expectancy to higher levels.
We have bodies that are built to live on the edge of famine in a
physically active world (the human condition until recently), but
the majority of humans now have a secure food supply and the
ability to avoid at least some of the manual labor of the past.



Biologists suggest that as we move past the
reproductive years (past our biological “usefulness”),
we undergo a set of concurrent processes know as
senescence: a decline in physical viability
accompanied by a rise in vulnerability to disease
Demographers define life span as referring to the
oldest age to which human beings can survive;
whereas longevity refers to the ability to remain alive
from one year to the next—the ability to resist death.
We do not yet have a good theory about aging to help
us to predict how long humans could live, so we must
be content to assume that the oldest age to which a
human actually has lived (a figure that may change
from day to day) is the oldest age to which it is
possible to live.

Disease and death are not randomly
distributed across the life cycle. Humans are
like most other animals with respect to the
general pattern of death by age—the very
young and the old are most vulnerable,
whereas young adults are least likely to die.



Age pattern of death is the most obvious way in which biology
affects our lives, it is also true that at every age there are
differences between males and females in the likelihood of death.
Some of these differentials seem to be strictly biological in origin
(the “sex” differences) whereas others are induced by society (the
“gender” differences), although it is not always easy to tell the
difference between the biological and social influences.
The most basic health difference between males and females is
that women generally live longer than men do, and the gap had
been widening until recently. In 1900, women could expect to live
an average of two years longer than men in the United States, and
by 1975, the difference had peaked at 7.8 years.
Nonetheless, a biological interpretation of the difference is
supported by studies showing that throughout the animal
kingdom females survive longer than males, suggesting some
kind of basic biological superiority in the ability of females to
survive relative to males

The World Health Organization puts deaths
into one of three major categories: (1)
communicable, maternal, perinatal, and
nutritional conditions; (2) non-communicable
diseases; and (3) injuries. Within each of
these categories are sub-groups


For most of human history, infectious diseases
have been the major cause of death, killing
people before they had a chance to die of
something else. Infectious diseases include
bacterial (such as tuberculosis, pneumonia, and
the plague), viral (such as influenza and measles)
and protozoan (such as malaria and diarrhea).
They are spread in different ways (by different
vectors), and have varying degrees of severity.
Emerging Infectious Diseases: the diseases get
transfer to human from animals or birds. It has
been human desire to add more animal protein
to their diet. It is assumed that AIDS, SARS, West
Nile Virus and etc. come through this.



A very special category of infectious diseases is that
associated with pregnancy and childbirth. Birth can be a
traumatic and dangerous time not only for the infant, but
for the mother as well. More than half a million women die
each year from maternal causes.
There are three factors, in particular, that increase a
woman’s risk of death when she becomes pregnant: (1)
lack of prenatal care that might otherwise identify
problems with the pregnancy before the problems become
too risky; (2) delivering the baby somewhere besides a
hospital, where problems can be dealt with immediately;
and (3) seeking an unsafe abortion because the pregnancy
is not wanted.
maternal mortality ratio measures the number of maternal
deaths per 100,000 live births. WHO (2004) indicate that
world average is 400 deaths to women per 100,000 live
births. Whereas, in USA it is 17, Canada 06, Mexico 83 and
Sierra Leone 2000.


Chronic diseases have been referred to as
chronic illnesses, non-communicable
diseases, and degenerative diseases. They are
generally characterized by uncertain etiology,
multiple risk factors, a long latency period, a
prolonged course of illness, noncontagious
origin, functional damage or disability, and
incurability.
These diseases take superiority over
communicable diseases as the important
causes of death.



We have devised many ways to put ourselves at
risk of accidental or unintentional death as a
result of the way in which we organize our lives
and deal with products of our technology.
About one million people commit suicide each
year and 20 million attempt to kill themselves
each year (WHO 2002). In US, Canada and Mexico
tens of thousands of lives lost in traffic accidents
and the same number of human get permanent
disability annually.
Men are not only more successful at killing
themselves, they are also more likely to be killed
by someone else. Homicide rates are highest for
young adult males in virtually every country for
which data are available


Until the twentieth century, cities were deadly places
to live. Mortality levels were invariably higher there
than in surrounding areas, since the crowding of
people into small spaces, along with poor sanitation
and contact with travelers who might be carrying
disease, helped maintain fairly high levels of
communicable diseases.
Life expectancy in 1841 was 40 years for native
English males and 42 years for females, but in
London it was five years less than that. In Liverpool,
the port city for the burgeoning coal regions of
Manchester, life expectancy was only 25 years for
males and 27 years for females. In probability terms,
a female child born in the city of Liverpool in 1841
had less than a 25 percent chance of living to her
55th birthday, while a rural female had nearly a 50
percent chance of surviving to age 55.


Differences in mortality by social status are among the
most pervasive inequalities in modern society, and they
are especially apt to show up in cities. This connection
between income and health has been obvious for a
long time. Marx attributed the higher death rate in the
working classes to the evils of capitalism and argued
that mortality differentials would disappear in a
socialist society. That may have been overly optimistic,
but data do clearly suggest that by nearly every index
of status, the higher your position in society, the
longer you are likely to live.
Among white American men aged 25 to 64 when they
died in 1960, mortality rates for laborers were 19
percent above the average, while those for professional
men were 20 percent below the average



There is a striking relationship between income and
mortality in the United States. As with income, there
is a marked decline in the risk of death as education
increases. Death data for the United States in 2003
show that age-adjusted death rates for people with at
least some college were less than one-third the level
of people with less than a high school education
White males with at least one year of college had
lower risks of death than those with less education.
The differences appear to be least for the
degenerative chronic diseases and greatest for
accidental deaths. This is consistent with the way you
might theorize that education would affect mortality,
since it should enhance an individual’s ability to avoid
dangerous, high-risk situations.


Among societies where more than one racial or ethnic
group exists, one group tends to dominate the
others. This generally leads to social and economic
disadvantages for the subordinate groups, and such
disadvantages frequently result in lower life
expectancies for the racial or ethnic minority group
members.
Some of the disadvantages are the obvious ones in
which prejudice and discrimination lead to lower
levels of education, occupation, and income and thus
to higher death rates. But a large body of evidence
suggests that there is a psychosocial component to
health and mortality, causing marginalized peoples in
societies to have lower life expectancies than you
might otherwise expect
Chapter: 6
Fertility Transition
(Population: An Introduction to
Concepts and Issues, Tenth
Edition, by John R.Weeks)
Presentation
By
Ghulam Hussain
Contents of Presentation
• Introduction to Fertility Transition
• How High Could Fertility Levels be?
• Why was human fertility high for most of
the human history?
• How fertility rate can be brought down?
• How do we measure changes in fertility?
• Fertility Transition in Pakistan
• Conclusion
Section: 1 Introduction to
Fertility Transition
Population Processes
Part two deals with the three basic demographic processes
whose transitions are transforming the world, namely, “Health
and Mortality”, “Fertility” and “Migration” Transition, that
determine population size and change and which can be
thought of as capturing life’s three main moments: hatching,
matching and dispatching.
The cornerstones of population studies are the processes of
mortality (a deadly subject), fertility (a well-conceived topic),
and migration (a moving experience).
I would here elaborate upon Chapter 6 of Part Two which deals
exclusively with the Fertility Transition.
What is ‘fertility’?
• A number of children born to women.
• Actual reproductive performance of women or men—how
many children have they parented?
• “High-fertility society” in which most women have several
children.
• “Low-fertility society” in which most women have few
children.
• Fertility, like mortality, has two components, namely,
‘Biological component’ and ‘Social component’
• Biological component refers to the capacity to reproduce.
But, whether children will actually be born and, if so, how
many, given the capacity to reproduce, is largely a result of
the social environment in which people live, hence
pertaining to social component
Biological Component
• The physical ability to reproduce is usually called fecundity. A
fecund person can produce children; an infecund (sterile)
person cannot.
• Couples who have tried unsuccessfully for at least 12 months to conceive a
child are usually called “infertile” by physicians (demographers would say
“infecund”)
• A woman is classified as having impaired fecundity (or sub-fecundity) if
she believes it is impossible for her to have a baby, if a physician has told
her not to become pregnant because the pregnancy would pose a health
risk for her or her baby, or if she has been continuously married for at
least 36 months, has not used contraception, and yet has not gotten
pregnant.
• Twelve percent of American women suffer from impaired fecundity
• Fecundity varies according to age; among women it usually increases from
menarche (the onset of menstruation), which usually occurs in the early
teens), peaks in the twenties, and then declines to menopause (the end of
menstruation).
• Men are generally fecund to a much older age than are women.
• Hormone treatment of post-menopausal women suggests that women of
virtually any age might be able to bear a child by implantation of an n
embryo created from a donated egg impregnated with sperm, and this has
been done successfully for several women over the age of 50.
• The world’s verified most prolific mother was a Russian woman
in the eighteenth century who gave birth to 69 children. She
actually had “only” 27 pregnancies, but experienced several
multiple births.
• On average, in any group of people, a woman ( in her 20 year span between
age 15-35) could bear a child every 2.2 years for a potential total of 16
children per woman. This can be thought of as the maximum level of
reproduction for an entire group of people.
• But in actual life, no society has ever averaged as many as 16 births per
woman, however, and there are biological reasons why such high fertility is
unlikely.
• Reasons have been, high rates of maternal mortality due to pregnancies,
high-mortality society, abnormalities in fecundity, lack of good nutritious
diet necessary to be fecund or fertile,
Malnutrition and fertility
• Certain amount of fat must be stored as energy before
menstruation and ovulation can occur on a regular basis.
• Thus, if a woman’s level of nutrition is too low to permit fat
accumulation, she may experience amenorrhea (temporary
absence or suppression of menstruation) and /or anovulatory
cycles, in which no egg is released.
• For younger women, the onset of puberty may be delayed until an
undernourished girls reaches a certain critical weight.
• Since the maximum level of fertility described above would require
modern levels of health and nutrition, it is not the level that we
would expect to find in pre-modern societies. A slightly different
concept, “natural fertility”, has historically been defined as the level
of reproduction that exists in the absence of deliberate (or at least
modern) fertility control.
Social component of fertility
• According to a research study, “Just slightly
more than one-quarter of the variance in
completed fertility is attributable to genetic
and biological influence”.
• Hence the social factors have greater
influence on the reproductive behavior of
human beings.
Fertility variability in different
historical societies
• Hunter-gatherer societies were probably motivated to space
children several years apart, thus keeping fertility lower than it
might otherwise have been. It would be difficult to be pregnant and
have other small children and be on the move.
• Agricultural societies provide an environment in which more
children may be advantageous, and where improved nutrition
might well have improved a woman’s chances of becoming
pregnant more often.
• On the other and, the lower mortality and high standard of living of
urban industrial and postindustrial societies reduce the demand
for children well below anything previously imagined in human
existence, yet paradoxically the biological capacity to reproduce is
probably the highest it has ever been because people are healthier
than they have ever been in human history.
Hutterites society: the
highest fertility rate ever
recorded
It was a combination of modern
medical science and a prosperous
agricultural
community
that
produced the world’s most famous
high-fertility group, the Huterites. In
the nineteenth century about 400
Hutterites migrated to the United
States from Russia, and in the span
of about 100 years they have
doubled their population more than
six times to a current total of more
than 30,000. In 1930s, the average
Hutterite woman who survived her
reproductive years could expect to
give birth to at least 11 children.
The secret to high Hutterite fertility
has been a fairly early age at
marriage, a good diet, good
medical, and a passion to follow the
biblical prescription to “be fruitful
and multiply” and believe that birth
control or the use of contraception
is a sin.
Why was fertility high for most of
human history
•
For the first 99 percent of human history, mortality was very high. Only those societies with
sufficiently high fertility managed to survive over the years.
• Societies that did survive probably did not take for granted that people
would have enough children to keep the population going. They
instituted multiple inducements—pronatalist pressures—to encourage
the appropriate level of reproduction: High enough to maintain
society, but not so high as to threaten its existence. Hence two major
factors historically determined the high fertility rate: (1)Need to
replenish society, and (2) Major inducements used by high-mortality
societies, including the value of children as security and labour and
the desire for sons.
•
•
Note: pronatalist means an attitude, doctrine, or policy that favors a high birth rate; also known as
“populationist”
Premodern groups accepted high mortality, especially among children, as a given, and so they
devised various ways to ensure that fertility would be high enough to ensure group survival.
Pronatalist pressures encourage family member to bring power and prestige to themselves and to
their group by having children, and this may have no particular relationship to the level of mortality
within a family.
Social encouragements to fertility
•
“ We often find for example that the permissive enjoyment of sexual
intercourse, the ownership of land, the admission to certain offices, the
claim to respect, and the attainment of blessedness are made contingent
upon marriage. Marriage accomplished, the more specific
encouragements to fertility apply.” Davis
• In familistic societies where kinship forms the chief basis of social
organization; reproduction is a necessary means to nearly very major goal
in life. The salvation of the soul, the security of old age, the production of
goods, the protection of the hearth, and the assurance of affection may
depend upon the presence, help, and comfort of progeny….This
articulation of the parental status with the rest of one’s statuses is the
supreme encouragement to fertility.” K.Davis
• By and large, the social institutions and norms that encourage high
fertility are so taken for granted by the members of society that anyone
who consciously said, “ I am having a baby in order to continue the
existence of my society,” would be viewed as a bit weird.
Son preference and Child as Security
and Labour
• In premodern society, human beings were the principal
economic resource. Children can be viewed as a form of
insurance that rural parents, in particular, have against a
variety of risks, such as a drought or a poor harvest.
• (Negative use of infants by a certain poorer Thari families
during recent drought, have been evidenced that
deliberately weaken the child to prove it malnourished to
death for the sake of governmental or NGO aid).
• Sexism and Desire for Sons: The non-economic, nonrational part of society (the sexist part) intrudes by often
suggesting that male children are more desirable than
female children.
Haplessness of to be-mothers
• Childbearing is rarely an end in itself, but rather a
means to achieve other goals, so if the attainment of
the other goals is perceived as being more important
than limiting fertility, a woman may continue to risk
pregnancy because she is ambivalent about having a
child—caught between competing pressures and thus
unsure of how she feels.
• A woman may rationally prefer a smaller family, yet
not be in a position to exercise that choice in her life.
• Most of such factors are related to the domination of
women by men and go to the heart of women’s
empowerment.
What is fertility transition?
• Fertility transition is the shift from high fertility,
characterized by only minimal individual
deliberate control, to low—perhaps very low—
fertility, which is entirely under a woman’s ( or
more generally a couple’s) control.
• Fertility transition represents the shift from
“natural fertility” to more deliberate fertility
limitation, and is associated with a drop in
fertility at all ages, but especially at the older
ages (beyond the 30s) and younger ages (under
20).
Common assumptions about fertility
transition
• Fertility transition almost always involves a delay in
childbearing to older ages (at least beyond the teen years)
and also an earlier end to childbearing.
• The fertility transition is typically accomplished through a
later age at marriage, through older women deciding not
to have that additional child, and through women in their
prime reproductive years using effective means of fertility
control, including especially contraception and abortion.
• Meaning high fertility rate is a natural and humanly least
controllable phenomenon, whereas low fertility rates occur
and have occurred when a female or a couple has made
deliberate efforts to control fertility.
Family building by design
• The Lloyd and Ivanov (1988) have summarized
fertility transition as the shift from “family building
by fate” to “family building by design”.
• For most of human history, fertility was high and
“natural” because every group had to overcome high
mortality if it was to survive and not disappear.
• But, the confluence of increasing standards of living
and lower mortality has changed those dynamics and
have led to the fertility transition.
Theoretical assumptions
• Theories of fertility transition emphasize the role of wealth
and economic development in lowering levels of fertility,
although it is clear that these are not sufficient reasons for
fertility to decline.
• You must also assess the overall social environment in
which change is occurring. When there are desired and
scarce resources, wealth, prestige, status, education, and
other related factors often help to lower fertility because
they change the way people perceive and think about the
social world and their place in it.
• Human beings are amazingly adaptable when they want to
be. When people believe that having no children or only a
few children is in their best interest, they behave
accordingly.
Role of Public Policy
• Laws that existed in England and the United States well
into the twentieth century that limited a couple’s access to
birth control information, so that only the most highly
motivated couples were able to limit their fertility.
• But since the 1970s the availability of contraception and
abortion, not to mention the ease of divorce and women’s
access to the labour force, have all contributed to the birth
rate dropping below the replacement level.
• Decades of conflict between Israelis and Arabs have kept
fertility rates in both Israel and Palestine higher than they
would otherwise be, in particular preventing a fertility
transition from occurring within the Palestine population,
especially among those living in the Gaza Strip.
Public policy shaping cultural
assumptions
• Government public policy may influence the
course of the fertility transition by stimulating or
retarding the motivations for limiting fertility
and/or the availability of means of fertility
control.
• Virtually all wealthy societies now have belowreplacement fertility levels, and in almost all lessdeveloped nations in the world today there are
genuine stirrings of a fertility decline, as highfertility norms and behavior give way to lowfertility preferences.
Why Fertility Transition?
• The world’s population is growing because death rates have
declined over the past several decades at a much faster pace than
have birth rates, and as we go from the historical pattern of high
birth and death rates to the increasingly common pattern of low
birth and death rates, we pass through the demographic transition.
• TThe past 200 years have witnessed almost nonstop growth in most
places in the world, but the rate is slowing down, even though we
are continuing to add nearly 9,000 people to the world’s total every
hour of every day.
• The population of the world is increasing by more than 200,000
(0.2million) people per day, but this growth is more intense in
certain areas of the world, such as in Pakistan and in India, thus
creating social problems brought about by the population pressure.
• We cannot begin to imagine our future
without taking into account the fact that the
population of the world at the middle of this
century is expected to be half again larger
than it is now, since the health of the planet
depends upon being able to sustain a much
larger number of people than are currently
alive.
How fertility rate can be brought
down?
• Certain preconditions need to be in place before birth rates
will drop
• In response to the findings emerging from the Princeton
European Fertility Project, Ansley Coale tried to deduce
how an individual would have to perceive the world on an
daily basis if fertility were to be consciously limited.
• Ansely Coal, thus argued that there are three preconditions
for a substantial fertility decline: the acceptance of a
calculated choice as a valid element in marital fertility, (2)
the perception of advantages from reduced fertility, and
(3) knowledge and mastery of effective techniques of
control.
• Coal’s first precondition goes to the very philosophical foundation
of individual and group life: Who is in control?
• If a supernatural power is believed to control reproduction, then it
is unlikely that people will run the risk of offending that deity by
impudently trying to limit fertility.
• If a woman’s life is controlled by her husband or other family
members, then she is not going to run the risk of insult or injury by
doing things that she know are disapproved of by those who
dominate her.
• The status of women, thus, is an important part of this first, basic
precondition for a decline in fertility.
• Tradition is, by definition, the enemy of change, so it is not
surprising that so-called traditional societies are those that are
most resistant to the idea that women, or couples working as a
team, should be in charge of their bodies when it comes to
reproduction. Among the earliest nations to undergo a change in
this regard were those that first experienced the Enlightenment.
• Coale’s second precondition recognizes that
more is required than just the belief that you can
control your reproduction. You must have some
reason to want to limit fertility. For instance,
people will be motivated to delay marriage and
limit births within marriage if economic and
social opportunities make it advantageous for
them to do so.
• Coale’s third precondition involves the
knowledge and mastery of effective means of
fertility control. Specific methods of fertility
control (use of pills, contraception, abortion etc)
may be thought of as technological innovations,
the spread of which is an example diffusion.
Motivations for Lower Fertility Levels
• The motivational and ideational aspects of the
fertility transition are most often explained as
some combination of rational factors
embodied in the Richard Easterlin’s supplydemand framework, and sociocultural
influences captured by the
innovation/diffusion perspective.
Supply-demand framework
• Supply-demand framework: The demographic transition
envisions a world in which the normal state of affairs is a
balance between births and deaths.
• Mortality is assumed to decline for reasons that are often
beyond the control of the average person (exogenous
factors), but a person’s reproductive behavior is dominated
by a rational calculation of the costs and benefits to
himself or herself (endogenous factors) of maintain high
fertility in the face of declining mortality.
• The idea is that people will eventually perceive that lower
mortality has produced a situation in which more children
are going to survive than can be afforded and, at that point,
fertility will decline.
• High fertility, for example, may help household avoid
risk in the context of low economic development and
weak institutional stability, especially when children
generate a positive net flow of income to the parents.
Under those conditions, it is rational to want to
produce a large number of children.
• Couples strive to maintain a balance between the
potential supply of children ( which is essentially a
biological phenomenon determined especially by
fecundity) and the demand for children ( which refers
to a couple’s ideal number of surviving children). If
mortality is high, the number of surviving children may
be small, and the supply may approximate the
demand.
Innovation/Diffusion and “Cultural”
Perspective
• Sociologists, anthropologists and cultural geographers do not attest
to rational neoclassical economic theory, and instead have often
been drawn to the idea that many changes in society are the result
of the diffusion of innovations. We know, for example, that much of
human behavior is driven by fads and fashions. Common people
are important change agents in society—those who, for reason that
may have nothing to do with money or economic factors, are able
to set trends.
• Often these change agents are member of the upper strata of
society. They may not be inventors of the innovation, but when
they adopt it, others follow suit.
• Innovation may be technological, such as deciding that two children
is the ideal family size and then using the most popular means to
achieve that number of children.
Complementarity of rational-choice
model and innovation-diffusion model
• To accept an innovation and change your behavior accordingly, you
must be “empowered” to believe that is within your control to alter
your behavior.
• Diffusion of an innovation requires that people believe that they
have some control over their life, which is the essence of the
rational-choice model that underlies the economic approach to the
fertility transition. I
• n other words, the supply-demand model and the innovationdiffusion model tend to be complementary to one another, not
opposed to one another.
• In any social situation in which influential couples are able to
improve their own or their children’s economic and social success
by concentrating resources on a relatively smaller number of
children, other parents may feel called upon to follow suit if they
and their offspring are to be socially competitive.
How can Fertility be controlled by
people?
• Net Reproduction of children matters.
• When we realize that it is net reproduction
(surviving children, not just children born) that is
of importance, we can see that human beings
have been very clever at dealing with family size
by controlling the family, rather than by
controlling fertility.
• Hence, net reproduction of children that actually
survive to contribute to the well being of family
as a whole matters.
• These societal interconnections are diagrammed
in the next slide
Postnatal Control and Family Control
• For, example higher-than-desired fertility in terms of live births can
be responded to after a child is born by what Skinner has called
“Child control”, or Mason has labelled as “postnatal control”.
• There are at least three ways of dealing with a child who is not
wanted or cannot be cared for by his or her parents after birth: (1)
Infanticide, (2) Fosterage (sending or even selling an excess child to
another family), and (3) Orphanage (abandoning a child in such a
way that he or she is likely to be found and cared for by strangers.
• Family control: Families have also exercised important control over
fertility by determining the age at which their daughters will be
allowed to marry, and by heavily supervising the premarital
activities of young female family members to ensure that they are
not exposed to the risk of pregnancy prior to marriage.
Proximate determinants of Fertility
• The means for regulating fertility have been popularly labeled the
intermediate variables.
• These represent 11 variables through which any social factor
influencing the level of fertility will operate.
• There are three phases to fertility: intercourse, conception, and
gestation, and all these three phases can influenced, shaped or
affected by intermediate variables.
• Intercourse is required if conception is to occur; if conception
occurs, successful gestation is required if a baby is to born alive.
• Differences in fertility from one population to the next are largely
accounted for by only four of those variables called as proximate
determinants of fertility: proportion married, use of contraceptives,
incidence of abortion, and involuntary infecundity.
Eleven intermediate variables
•
The 11 intermediate variables that also include four proximate determinants of
fertility are:
1. Age of entry into sexual unions (legitimate and illegitimate)
2. Permanent celibacy: Proportion of women never entering sexual unions.
3. Amount of reproductive period spend after or between unions.
a) When unions are broken by divorce, separation, or desertion.
b) When unions are broken by death of husband.
4. Voluntary abstinence.
5. Involuntary abstinence (from impotence, illness, unavoidable but temporary
separation)
6. Coital frequency
7. Fecundity or infecundity, as affected by involuntary causes, but including breastfeeding.
8. Use or nonuse of contraception
9. Fecundity or infecundity, as affected by voluntary causes (sterilization, medical
treatment, and so on)
10. Fetal mortality from involuntary causes (miscarriage)
11. Fetal mortality from voluntary causes.(induced abortion)
How do we measure changes in
fertility?
• Most rates are based on period data, which refer to a particular
calendar year and represent a cross section of the population atone
specific time
• Cohort measures of fertility, on the other hand, follow the
reproductive behavior of specific birth-year groups (cohorts) of
women as they proceed through the childbearing years.
• Some calculations are based on a synthetic cohort that treats
period data as though they referred to a cohort.
• Thus the data for women aged 20-25 and 25-29 in the year 2005
represent the period data for two different cohorts.
• It is assumed that the women who are now 20-25 will have just the
same experience five year from now as the women who are
currently 25-29, and then a synthetic cohort has been constructed
from the period data.
Period measures of fertility
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
• CBR is the number of live births (b) in a year divided by the
total midyear population (p). It is usually multiplied by
1,000 to reduce the number of decimals:
• CBR= b/p X 1, 000
• For example, if a population of 1,000 people contained 300
women who were of childbearing age and 10 percent of
them (30) had a baby in a particular year, the CBR would
be(30 birth/1000 total people)= 30 births per 1,000, or 0.03
percent.
• Crude Birth Rate in the world in 2006, for example range
from a low of eight per 1,000 (in China and Germany) to a
high of 55 per 1,000 in Niger.
Period measures of fertility: GFR and
CWR
• General Fertility Rate (GFR)
• It is the total number of births in an year (b) divided by
the number of women in the childbearing ages (30F15—
denoting females starting at age 15 with an interval
width of 30, i.e., women aged 15-44)
• GFR=b/30F15X 1,000.
• Child-Women Ration (CWR)
• CWR is measured by the ratio of young children (aged
zero to four) enumerated in the census to the number
of women of childbearing ages (15 to 49)
ASFR and TFR
Age-specific Fertility Rate (ASFR)
•
•
•
•
•
ASFR is the number of births (b) occurring in a year to mothers aged x to x+n (nbx)
per 1,000 women of that age given in five-year age group.
ASFRs require that comparisons of fertility be done on an age-by-age basis.
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Demographers have also devised a method for combining ASFRs into a single
fertility index covering all ages. This is called the total fertility rate (TFR).
The TFR uses the synthetic cohort approach and approximates knowing how many
children women have had when they are all through with childbearing by using he
age-specific fertility rates at a particular date to project what could happen in the
future if all women when through their lives bearing children at the same rate that
women of different ages were at that date.
For example, as noted above, in 2002, Amrican wome aged 25 to 29 were bearing
children at a rate of 114 births per 1,000 women per year. Thus, over a five-year
span (from ages 25 through 29), for every 1,000 women we could expect 570
(=5X114) births if everything else remained the same. By applying that logic to all
ages, we can calculate the TFR as the sum of the ASFRs over all ages:
TFR=∑ASFRX5
GRR and NRR
Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR)
• GRR is interpreted as the number of female
children that a female just born may expect to
have during her lifetime, assuming that birth
rates stay the same and ignoring her chances of
survival through her reproductive years.
Net Reproduction Rate (NRR)
• NRR represents the number of female children
that a female child just born can expect to bear,
taking into account her risk of dying before the
end of her reproductive years.
Cohort Measures of Fertility
• Cohort data follow people through time as they age, rather
than taking snapshots of different people at regular
intervals, which is what period data do. Thus, the basic
measure of cohort fertility is births to date, measured as
the cumulated cohort fertility rate (CCFR), or the total
number of children ever born (CEB) to women.
• For example, women born in 1915 (in USA) began their
childbearing during the Depression. By the time those
women had reached age 25 in 1940, they had given birth to
890 babies per 1,000 women. By age 44 (in1959), those
women had finished their childbearing in the baby boom
years with a completed fertility rate of 2,429 births per
1,000 women.
Fertility Transition in Pakistan
• In the absence of an accurate and complete registration system,
efforts were made to estimate the levels of vital statistics through
sample surveys. The first such effort was made through the
Population Growth Estimation (PGE) project conducted from
January, 1962 to December 1965.
• Later on, various demographic surveys were conducted almost at
regular intervals and the last effort in the series was Pakistan
Reproductive Health and Family Planning Survey (PRHFPS) in the
year 2000-01.
• Although all these efforts were made to ascertain levels and trends
of various demographic events, yet the estimates particularly the
ones on fertility remained controversial.
• The first signal of fertility reduction was emanated from the 1975
Pakistan Fertility Survey (PFS) which estimated a Total Fertility Rate
(TFR) of 6.3 children from over 7 children estimated earlier from
PGE data.
• However, all hopes of the onset of fertility
transition were shattered by the [Retherford’s, et
al. (1987)] study entitled “Fertility Trend in
Pakistan: The Decline that Wasn’t”. they
confirmed that the decline in fertility was an
artifact of the data.
• Another study by Shah, Pullum, and Irfan (1986)
also termed the fertility decline shown by the PFS
data as spurious. The Pakistan Labour Force and
Migration Survey, conducted five years later, in
1979-80, estimated a TFR of 6.5 children, thus
providing another proof supporting the fact that
fertility had not declined to the extent believed.
Use of Contraception by Method
Fertility Transition and Population
Implosion in Europe and East Asia
• The world’s population is in no danger of imploding anytime soon, but the
same cannot be said for much of Europe and East Asia.
• Several countries in these areas are either already declining in population,
or are on the verge of doing so.
• The populations in Europe and East Asia all have birth rates that are below
replacement level and have been that way for some time now, leading to a
declining number of people at the younger ages.
• Most of the other Eastern European nations add to low fertility the
demographic complication that people are leaving to go elsewhere,
primarily to Western Europe, but also to North America.
• According to data from the United Nations Population Division (2005),
there were 16 countries in 2005 that had fewer people that year than in
2000.
• All 16 of these were in Eastern Europe, and they were led by Russia and
several of its former members of the Soviet Union, including Ukraine,
Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, the Republic of Moldova, Lithuania, Latvia,
and Estonia.
Evidences of fertility decline in
Pakistan
• Evidence is accumulating that a transition in
marital fertility behavior has begun in Pakistan in
the 1990s. The evidence is of several types and
comes from multiple and independent sources.
• According to Sathar and Casterinline, Fertility
declined gradually prior to the 1990s; fertility
declined more rapidly in the 1990s; prior to the
1990s, the main direct cause of fertility decline
was marriage postponement; in the 1990s, the
main direct cause of fertility decline was
contraception within marriage.
Fertility transition predictions for
Pakistan
• From the standpoint of the long-term goal of achieving
replacement-level fertility in Pakistan, the existing level of demand
for children must be regarded as the most serious constraint.
• If existing unmet need to be satisfied, the TFR would remain in the
range 3.6–4.4 births per woman, a level that implies continued
rapid population growth.
• Downward trend in the demand for children apparent in the early
1990s is likely to continue to exert downward pressure on fertility.
• As a natural outcome of a growing awareness that marital fertility
can be deliberately regulated, the strength of attachment to
desires for moderate or small numbers of children (i.e. fewer than
five) will grow, while simultaneously the fraction of couples
desiring large numbers of children will decline, in response to the
trends in economic aspirations and perceived costs of children
described above.
…..predictions for Pakistan…
• The onset of the transition has been triggered by changes
in fertility demand and by reductions in the social, psychic,
and cultural costs of contraception.
• None of these costs has been entirely eliminated. If family
planning services remain inadequate, then we expect that
unmet need for family planning will remain at its current
high level or even increase.
• Under the most desirable scenario the ongoing declines in
demand for children would be accompanied by radical
improvements in the supply and quality of family planning
services. This scenario offers the conditions for a rapid
fertility decline in Pakistan over the next decade or so.
How is the fertility transition
accomplished?
• There is no single straight path that a population is
likely to take to get from high fertility to low fertility,
but there are some patterns that show up more
regularly than other. Keep in mind that Coal’s three
preconditions for a fertility decline suggest that
nothing will happen as long as women do not feel that
they are in control of their own reproduction, so the
first part of the transition is ideational in nature.
• Even assuming such an ideational change in society,
fertility will only decline if people are motivated to
beak the old rules of life’s game that funneled women
into a world of having children early and often.
Transition from children having
children to women having children
• women or couples must decide how they are going try to limit the children
born.
• One of the first signs of fertility decline in a population is an increase in
the age at which a woman has her first birth. You might call this the
transition from children having children to women having children, and it
is part and parcel of their rising status of women in society.
• This may be accomplished more through abstinence than anything else,
but in societies where girls are sexually active prior to marriage this will
obviously require either an effective contraceptive or the availability of
abortion.
• At older ages women who already have children may decide not to have
an additional one, and completed family size become five children born
instead of six, or four instead of five.
• Thus, during the fertility transition birth rates are apt to drop noticeably at
the two age extremes of a woman’s reproductive career.
Combination of forces determine
fertility transition
• All of the perspectives on the fertility transition discussed
above assume that fertility will not decline until people see
limiting fertility as being in their interest.
• Coal’s three preconditions do not specify what the
motivating factors might be, leaving open the possibility of
some mix of economic and social motivations, sometimes
stimulated or restarted by public policy decisions that
make it easier or harder for people interested in controlling
their reproduction actually to do so.
• In the real world, a combination of forces seems to
produce the observed fertility transitions.
Suggestions for fertility control in
Pakistan
•
•
•
•
•
In searching for the forces underlying this development, changes in the demand
for children—a crystallization of existing desires for smaller families have been
emphasized combined with a decline in family size desires (itself reflecting
broader economic and social changes)—as well as changes in the social, psychic,
and cultural costs of contraception (such social stigmas, and religious taboos
attached to fertility control).
In examining the obstacles to further changes in fertility, in contrast, the
immediate need for improvements in family planning services and for further
reductions in other costs of contraception have been emphasized
Taking this assessment of the constraints on further change as a starting point, we
can sketch likely scenarios for the next decade or so, and we can identify the types
of policies that might promote faster fertility decline.
Because a large fraction of currently married women has unmet need for
contraception, in theory a substantial increase in contraceptive practice and a
corresponding decline in fertility could occur without any change in fertility
preferences (Shah and Cleland 1993).
This is an important conclusion from the standpoint of near-term policy
formulation and program development
• Pakistan is increasingly urbanized, and childrearing and
consumer aspirations that outstrip the ability to satisfy
them, and hence have antinatalist implications, are
spreading to lower socioeconomic strata and rural areas.
• Thus we expect that a growing fraction of Pakistani couples
will wish to limit their number of children to fewer than
four.
• Are these changes in demand likely to be matched by rises
in contraceptive prevalence and by corresponding declines
in fertility? In the long run the answer must be yes. In the
short run, however, the answer is dependent on the extent
of changes in family planning service delivery.
• In short, given the heightened motivation to restrict
fertility, the key in the short run to maintaining and perhaps
even accelerating fertility transition in Pakistan will be
improvements in family planning services.
Chapter# 7
The Migration Transition
Syed Abdul Akbar Shah
283
Defining Migration

Migration refers to any permanent change in
residence
“detachment from the organization of activities
at one place and the movement of the total
round of activities to another” (Goldscheider
1971:64).
284
Defining Migration



Mobility versus migration
Travelers, temporary employment seekers, a
seasonal worker and movers, are not
migrants because they do not change their
residence permanently.
The demographers also ignore the nomads
and transients because of the absence of a
permanent residence
285
Internal and International Migrants

Internal migration





That occurs within a country
It is thought to be free or voluntary migration
because of the choice to migrate or not
Mostly it is due to economic factors
IDPs due to wars and disasters
Migration due to government led efforts to build
Dams or shift people from densely populated
areas to area with less population
286
Internal and International Migrants

International Migration



Migraition across international boundaries which
is usually voluntary ( both legal or illegal)
Refugee status due to social, political or military
conflict
Most of the international migration is more
stressful than internal migration due to new
culture, new language, religion, provision of
different levels of government services and
different social expectations and obligations
287
Terminologies of Migrations







Out-Migrant: with reference to one’s area of origin
In-Migrant : with resect to destination
Emigrant: Home country of a migrant
Immigrant: In terms of destination, the new
country
Long Term Migrant: more than one year as
defined by UN
Legal, Illegal (or undocumented) migrants,
Refugees (unable or unwilling to return to their
home countries because of persecution)
288
Measuring Migration

Defining migration as permanent change of
residence still leaves several important
questions to be answered like permanent
residence, time period and geographic limits
and further more migration may involve a
single individual or a family
289
Stocks versus Flows




Migration transition involves both a process and
a transformation
The process is that people move from one place
to another, this represents migration flow
The transformation is the migrant stock refers to
the changes as the people move into and out of
a given place( place of origin)
Problems in collection of data regarding stocks
and flows (who is a migrant, undocumented
migrants, no record of outgoing migrants in
Canada) A general issue in Us and Canada
290
The Migration Transition with in
Countries




The rates of Migration were typically low in
the pre modern world just as the birth and
death rates were high
Migration transition has occurred every where
in concert with fertility and mortality transition
Migration is a ready adaptation that humans
can make to the pressure on local recourses
People don’t move at random rather tend to
move where they believe opportunity exists
291
Why Do people Migrate?

Push-pull theory




Some people move because they are pushed
while others have pulled or attracted
First put forward by Ravenstein (1989) who
analysed migration in England using data from the
.
1881 census of England and Wales
Pull factors were more important that push factors
The desire to get ahead is more than the desire to
escape and unpleasant situation is responsible for
voluntary migration
292
Why Do people Migrate?


Devis (1963) says that it is the pursuit of
pleasure or the fear of social slippage, not the
desire to escape from poverty
Lee (1996) observes two generalizations
about migration


Migration is selective ( not everyone but selective
population migrate)
The high propensity to migrate at certain stages of
the life cycle is important (age factor)
293
Why Do people Migrate?
Individuals, household and community

The migration process begins with individuals
and household members in the context of a
given culture and society, represented by the
community in which they live

Personal traits are important because some
people are greater risk takers
294
Who Migrates?
Selectivity by Age

Age is an important determinant of migration
because it is related to life cycle changes that
affect most of humans in most societies

Young adults are far more likely to migrate
than people at any other age
Who Migrate?
Selectivity of Life Cycle
 The young adults leave their parent’s home,
establish an independent household, get a
job, marry and have children
 Single, divorced, separated and widowed
have highest migration rates
 The number and ages of children is also a
strong factor
296
Who Migrates
Selection by Gender




Most of the women are following their husbands
and family members
In united States women have virtually the same
rates of migration as do men and are increasingly
apt to migrate at their own
Any generalization would be misleading as
regional patterns vary
Domestic services and commercial sex and
entertainment are key inducements for Asian
women particularly Thailand and Philippines
297
Where do people Migrate ?



The migration transition within country is
essentially the story of population growth in
rural areas which leads to unban transition as
the city is almost always where the jobs are
Mostly
American
moved
from
the
economically depressed South to the
industrially developed North
People tend to migrate where opportunities
are
Migration Between Countries


Economic motives may dominate individual
decisions to migrate
Though migration transition originally referred
to the mobility of people within a nation it has
expanded its scope to become an
international
global
phenomenon
of
movement between countries
Migration Between Countries
Strategies of Migration
 Step migration: A rural resident may move to
a nearby city, then to a larger city and
eventually to a mega polis
 Chain migration: Migration from a common
origin to a predetermined destination where
earlier migrants have already have scoped
out the situation and laid the ground work for
the new arrivals
300

The Neoclassical Economics Approaches


The New Household Economics of Migration


supply of and demand for labor)
The decision of migration is made in the context of
what is better for entire family/household)
Dual Labor Market Theory

Primary sector (For educated people with better
incentives) and secondary labor market ( low
wages jobs. The later creates opportunities for
international migration)
301
.
World System Theory



Focuses on the core and periphery
perspective
Periphery is dependent on the capitalist core
while core countries have entered the
periphery for raw material,
labor and
consumer market
According to this theory migration is the
natural
outgrowth
of
disruption
and
dislocations that inevitably occur in the
process of capitalist development
302
Why do People Migrate Internationally?

Network Theory
Network theory argues that migrants establish
interpersonal ties that connect migrants, former
migrants , and non-migrants in origin and
destination areas through ties of kinship,
friendship and shared community origin
303
Why do People Migrate Internationally?

Institutional Theory


Migration is perpetuated by institution that
facilitate and profit from the continued flow of
immigrants. These organization also get involved
in some illicit practices including smuggling people
across borders
Cumulative Causation


Migration has an impact on the social
environments
The sending back remittances increase the
income levels which may increase the motivation
of other households to send migrants
304
Which theories are best?

Migration is a complex process

All theories refer to a related point supported
by evidences. No single theory seems able to
capture all of the nuances of migration

An all encompassing theory has not been put
forward yet
305
Who Migrates Internationally?


Population growth in less developed nations
and declining population rate in more
developed nations
Labor shortage in Northern and Western
Europe, USA, Canada, Japan and Australia
has created opportunities for workers from
Africa, Western and Southern Asia and Latin
America
306
Who Migrates Internationally?

Mexicans to US and Egyptians, Jordanians,
Indians and Pakistani to Middle east, Saudi
Arabia and Lybia

Guest Labors where guest countries deny
citizenship to those who were not born in the
country and to their children because they
were not born to citizens
307
Migration Origins and Destinations

Global Pattern of Migration


In the 19th and early 20th century, massive
waves of international migration represented
the voluntary movement of people out of
Europe in the new worlds of North and South
America
The worldwide economic depression between
World War I and II severely limited international
migration in the 1920 and 1930 however World
War II unleashed a new cycle of European and
Asian migration
308
Migration Origins and Destinations


In middle east the partitioning of Palestine to
create Israel produced 700,000 Palestinian
out-migrants
and
likewise
substantial
migration into Israel from North African, middle
eastern and Soviet Union Jewish population
The 1947 partition of the Indian subcontinent
led to the transfer of more than 15 million
people--- Muslims into Pakistan and Hindus
into India
309
Migration Origins and Destinations


The relaxation of visa policy after the reunification of Germany migration from east to
west was transformed from a trickle into a
flash flood from East Germany to West
Germany
This east-west migration pattern in Europe has
evolved in centuries. Between 1850 and 1913
more than 40 million Europeans moved from
east to west
310
Consequences of Migration


Migration affect the lives of the people who
move, the people they leave behind, and
the new people they interact with
Migration
dramatically
alter
the
demographic structure of a community
with in a very short period of time as well
as the social structure over the long term
311
Consequences of Migration

Consequence for Migrants


Anxiety and stress as the new social
environment has to be negotiated
To cope with migrants seek those share their
culture and geographic backgrounds

Immigrants undergo a process of adaptation to the
new environment and then lead to acculturation

The children of migrants have the task of growing
up mainly or only knowing the new country but
having to deal with immigrant parents
312
Consequences of Migration

Societal Consequences
 The impact of migration on the demographic
composition and social structure
 The donor area typically loses people from its
young adult population
 Many small towns in Latin America are left
with older adults and children
 Pressure on civic services in host areas
 Remittances and migradollars
313
Consequences of Migration

Forced Migration

Someone who may not have intended to move but
forced to leave his or her home because of a real or
perceived threat to life and wellbeing.

20 milioan refuges worldwide as of the end of 2004
among them 10 million were refugees while 10 million
were asylum seekers

More than half of the world’s refugees and displaced
persons are in Africa
314
Consequences of Migration

Three solutions to the problem of refuges
population




Repatriation to the country of origin
Resettlement in the county which they initially fled
Resettlement in a third country (None is easy to accomplish)
Slavery


Slavery has existed within various humans societies
for millennia and its latest incarnation is human
trafficking
This involves the forcible migration of hundreds, if not
thousands, of women and children for sexual
exploitation and forced labor
315
The Age Transition
&
Aging
Demographic Anthropology
By
Muhammad Siddique Chaudhary
PhD (1st)
Dept. of Anthropology
Quaid-i-Azam University
Islamabad
Aging
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Population ageing, which entails an increasing share of older persons in the
population, is a major global demographic trend which will intensify during
the twenty-first century. For statistical & demographic purposes, and unless
otherwise specified, the older persons are considered to be those aged 60
years or older.
Ageing is a dynamic process, determined by the relative size of the younger
and older cohorts in the population at different moments in time.
The initial size of each cohort depends on the population in childbearing ages
at a given point in time, and the prevalent fertility rates.
Mortality rates determine the number of people of each cohort that survives
to old-age.
Migration may also affect ageing in different ways, although its actual impact
at the national level is usually small.
The world population has been experiencing significant ageing―the process
that results in rising proportions of older persons in the total
population―since the mid-twentieth century.
Ageing had started earlier in the more developed regions and was beginning
to take place in some developing countries
Aging Facts & Figures
•Ageing results from decreasing mortality, and, most importantly, declining
fertility. Together, these reductions eventually lead to smaller proportions of
children and larger proportionate shares of older people in the population.
•The global share of older people (aged 60 years or over) increased from 9.2 per
cent in 1990 to 11.7 per cent in 2013 and will continue to grow as a proportion of
the world population, reaching 21.1 per cent by 2050.
•Globally, the number of older persons (aged 60 years or over) is expected to
more than double, from 841 million people in 2013 to more than 2 billion in
2050. Older persons are projected to exceed the number of children for the first
time in 2047.
•Globally, the share of older persons aged 80 years or over (the “oldest old”)
within the older population was 14 per cent in 2013 and is projected to reach 19
percent in 2050. If this projection is realized, there will be 392 million persons
aged 80 years or over by 2050, more than three times the present.
Reduction in Fertality & Size of Birth
Cohorts
• Fertility has been falling in most regions of the world over the last several
decades, and this decline has been the main factor driving population
ageing.
• The world’s total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped by about a half, from 5.0
children per woman in 1950-1955 to 2.5 children per woman in 2010-2015
• The global TFR will fall to 2.2 in 2045-2050 under the “medium” projection
variant, or to 1.8 children per woman under the “low” variant.
• The faster the speed of fertility decline, the more rapidly ageing will take
place.

Massive out-migration may significantly reduce the size of youth
cohorts, which can intensify population ageing, or large immigrations may
swell the youth cohorts in countries of destination, thereby attenuating
the pace of ageing to some extent.
World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision (United Nations, Department of Economic and Social
Affairs, Population Division 2013)
Fertility is projected to continue to
decline in the less developed regions
• Total fertility in the less developed regions stood at 6.1
children per woman in 1950-1955, reaching 2.7 children per
woman in 2005-2010.
• Even though total fertility in the less developed regions is still
well above that of the more developed regions, it is projected
to fall to 2.3 children per women in 2045-2050, narrowing the
gap to 0.4 children per women with the more developed
regions.
Demographic determinants and speed of
population ageing
• Population ageing, which entails an increasing
share of older persons in the population, is a
major global demographic trend which will
intensify during the twenty-first century.
• Ageing results from the demographic transition,
a process whereby reductions in mortality are
followed by reductions in fertility. Together, these
reductions eventually lead to smaller proportions
of children and larger proportionate shares of
older people in the population.
Total fertility rate: world and development regions,
1950-2050
Fluctuations in Fertility Rate
Developed Region
•
•
•
•
1950-1955
2.8 children per woman
2000-2005
1.6 children per woman
2005-2010
1.7 children per woman (rose slightly )
2045-2050
1.9 children per woman (Projected)
below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
Less Developed Region
•
•
•
•
1950-1955
1970-1990
2005-2010
2045-2050
6.1 children per woman
(fell sharply)
2.7 children per woman
2.3 children per women
Life Expectancy
Improvements in Life Expectancy and its impacts on Populaton
Aging
Since early improvements in life expectancy come mostly
from declines in child mortality, this tends to produce, in
a first instance, increased numbers of infants and
children, and a reduction in the proportion of older
individuals. Continued progress in life expectancy
contributes to the increase in the proportion of older
people, as more individuals survive to ever older ages.
Thus, eventually, lower mortality and higher life
expectancy end up reinforcing the effect of lower birth
rates on population ageing.
Historical Trends in Life Expectancy
Developed Region
Less Developed Region
1950
65 years
42 years
2010-2015
78 years
68 years
2045-2050
83 years
75 years
 Thus longer life spans will contribute to future ageing in all major regions of the world
Increase in Life Expectancy at the age of 60
years & 80 Years in 2010-15 & 2040-45
At the Normal Age of 60 years a person is expected to live for following additional years
Additional years 2010-15
World
More developed regions
less developed regions
20
23
19
Additional years 2040-45
22
26
21
At the Normal Age of 80 years a person is expected to live for following additional years
Additional years 2010-15
More developed regions
less developed regions

09
07
Additional years 2040-45
11
08
The combination of longer life expectancy with declining fertility will lead to significant population growth
in the less developed regions, especially in the least developed countries.
Magnitude and Speed of Population Ageing
At the root of the process of population ageing is the exceptionally rapid increase in the
number of older persons, a consequence of the high birth rates of the early and middle
portions of the twentieth century and the increasing proportions of people reaching old age.
The Number of Older (60+) Persons in lived & projected to live 1950, 2013 & 2050
Less Developed Region
Developed Region
1950
2013
2050
202 million
108 million
94 million
841 million-(Four times)
554 million-(five times)
287 million-(triple)
no projection
1.6 billion
487 million
Old-Age Population Pyramid
Population aged 60 years or over by
development region, 1950-2050
The proportion of the world’s
population aged 60 years or over
1950
2013
2050
World
8%
12%
21%
Developed Region
Less Developed Region
12%
06%
23%
09% -(increase)
32%
19% (accelerate)
Countries in a more advanced stage of ageing include (Armenia, Argentina, Chile,
China, Cuba, Cyprus, Georgia, Israel, Puerto Rico, Singapore and Sri Lanka) and those
where the proportion of older persons is still very low and not yet increasing (all
countries in sub-Saharan Africa with the exception of Mauritius, Réunion, Seychelles
and Saint Helena; many countries in South-Central Asia, South-Eastern Asia and
Western Asia).
Population Aging, increase and
Acceleration
•
•
•
•
•
It is well-known that population ageing is taking place much more rapidly now in developing
countries than it had in developed countries in the past.
For example,
It took France 115 years and Sweden 85 years, and it will take the United States of America 69
years, to change the proportion of the population aged 60 years or over from 7 per cent to 14 per
cent.
In contrast, it will take China only 26 years, Brazil 21 years and Colombia 20 years to experience the
same change in population ageing (Kinsella and Phillips, 2005).
Indeed, change was slow during the early, “take-off” phase of population ageing. However, the
speed of population ageing in the more developed regions during the past three decades has been
very fast. From 1980 to 2010, the more developed regions experienced the largest and fastest
increase in the proportion of the population aged 60 years or over, from 15.5 per cent to 21.8 per
cent. This increase of 6.2 percentage points in 30 years is several times larger than the increase of
2.3 points in the less developed regions.
The older population of the less developed regions has expanded continuously since the 1960s at a
faster pace than in the more developed regions. Today, about two thirds of the global number of
older people live in developing countries. Since the projections indicate that this trend will
continue, older persons will be increasingly concentrated in the less developed regions of the
world. In 2050, nearly 80 per cent of the world’s older population will live in the less developed
regions.
Population aging 2010-2050
• In the next 30-year period, from 2010 to 2040, fast population ageing will
take place mainly in the less developed regions. In particular, China will
see an increase of 15.7 percentage points in the proportion aged 60 years
or over, from 12.4 per cent to 28.1 per cent. This increase will be the
fastest in the world, although ageing in the more developed regions will
continue at a quick pace of 8.8 points over this 30-year period.
• The global rate of growth of the older population is 3.2 per cent in 20102015, and it is projected to decline continuously to 1.8 per cent in 20452050. The growth rate is higher in the less developed regions than in the
more developed ones. Between 2010-2015 and 2045-2050, the growth
rate is projected to decline from 3.8 per cent to 2.2 per cent in the less
developed regions, while it is projected to go from 1.9 per cent to 0.4 per
cent in the more developed regions. The growth rate in the least
developed countries is projected to rise until around 2030 and will hover
just under 4 per cent during the next few decades
The changing balance among age groups
•
•
•
•
the number of annual births is expected to nearly stabilize, at a level of about
138 to 140 million births per year from the present to mid-century. As the
more uniformly-sized cohorts grow older, a trend toward a more uniform
population age distribution will set in.
There are four 20-year age groups: (1) children and adolescents under the age
of 20 years; (2) “young” adults 20 to 39 years of age; (3) “middle-aged” adults
aged 40 to 59 years; and (4) older persons aged 60 years or over.
Historically, the group of older persons was much smaller than any of the
other three groups. But this situation is no longer true in the more developed
regions and the global situation will change significantly as the older
population continues to grow rapidly while the younger age groups begin to
stabilize.
Toward the 2080s, these four age groups are projected to be of approximately
equal size, the projections indicate that ageing will continue to intensify
further into the future.
Structure of Age Groups in more Developed & Less
Developed Regions
•
In the more developed regions, the size of the first three 20-year age groups are
beginning to converge, with projections showing that during 2050-2100 they will
stabilize at very similar levels, of about 300 million each. Older persons in the more
developed countries have already outnumbered the population aged 0 to 19 years,
and will surpass each of the two younger 20-year age groups of adults as early as
2024. Thereafter, the older population is projected to substantially outgrow the
younger age groups; by the end of the century, the older population of the more
developed regions will represent more than one third of their total population.
•
In the less developed regions, the projections suggest that the four broad age
groups will be about the same size by 2090. At that point in time, the older
population will represent 25 per cent of the total population, and this proportion
will continue to grow, reaching 27 per cent by the end of the century. The group of
least developed countries is following a similar trajectory of ageing as the other
regions experienced in the past, but with a considerable time lag. Only the size of
the youngest group (under age 20) will have stabilized toward the end of the
twenty-first century. All the other age groups will continue to grow for many
decades to come.
Median Age
•
•
•
•
•
•
A manifestation of population ageing is the shift in the median age, the age that divides the
younger from the older half of the population.
Globally, the median age moved from 24 years in 1950 to 29 years in 2010, and will continue to
increase to 36 years in 2050.
The faster ageing in the less developed regions is reflected in the big shift in the median age from
26 years in 2010 to 35 years in 2050, which represents an eight-year increase during a period of 40
years.
Meanwhile, the median age in the more developed regions increased rapidly between 1950 and
2010, from 28 years to 40 years. From 2010 on, the pace is expected to slow down and the median
age is projected to reach 44 years in 2050.
Japan, Germany and Italy are the countries with the highest median ages in the world. In Japan,
more than half of the population was older than 45 years in 2010, and its median age is projected
to rise to 53 years in 2050. Japan is thus experiencing rapid ageing, at a faster speed than any other
developed country. But Europe is ageing fast as well; by 2050, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Germany,
Malta, Portugal, Serbia and Spain are projected to attain median ages of 50 years or more.
Among developing countries or areas, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) of China and
Martinique had relatively old age structures, with a median age of 40 years or more in 2010. In the
next four decades, virtually all developing countries are projected to age further. By 2050, Cuba,
Hong Kong SAR of China, Martinique, Oman, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Singapore and Thailand are
expected to attain median ages of 50 years or higher.
Dependancy Ratio
• The demographic dependency ratio is a simple indicator of
the relationship between the population in mostly dependent
ages and the population in the main working ages. It is
defined as the ratio of the number of children under age 15
plus older persons aged 65 years or over, to the number of
persons aged 15 to 64 years.
• This simple dependency ratio implicitly assumes that all
persons younger than 15 years and older than 65 years are
unproductive and that all persons aged 15 to 64 years are
productive, which is not always the case.
Dependency ratio
World
1950
2013
2050
76 dependents/100 working age persons
52/100 (fertality ups and down)
58/100
Developed Region
1950
2010
2050
58/100
48/100
72/100
Less Developed Regions
2013
2050
52/100
56/100
The changes in the dependency ratio of the world have been driven by the combined effect of the
declining proportion of children and the rising proportion of older persons. In 1950, 87 per cent of
dependents were children and 13 per cent were older persons. That mix is changing rather rapidly and
older persons will come to represent 50 per cent of dependents by 2080.
The dependency ratio will increase continuously during the next four decades in the more
developed regions, mainly driven by the rising proportion of older persons. The older
population’s share of the dependency ratio was half (51 per cent) in 2013 and is projected to
reach 62 per cent in 2050
Demographic profile of the older population
(Age Composition)
Ageing is taking place in the world’s adult population and within the
older population itself. The proportion of persons aged 80 years or
over within the older population increased from 7 percent in 1950
to 14 per cent in 2013. It is expected to reach 19 per cent in 2050
and 28 per cent in 2100.
The rise in the population aged 80 years or over
Less eveloped regions
1950
06 million people
2050
268 million
Developed Region
1950
08 million
2050
124 million
Demographic profile of the older population
(Age Composition)
Ageing is taking place in the world’s adult population and within the older
population itself. The proportion of persons aged 80 years or over within
the older population increased from 7 percent in 1950 to 14 per cent in
2013. It is expected to reach 19 per cent in 2050 and 28 per cent in 2100.
The rise in the population aged 80 years or over
Less Developed Regions
1950
06 million people
2013
63 million
2025
89 million
2050
268 million
Developed Region
1950
08 million
2013
57 million
2025
71 million
2050
124 million
Top ten countries with the largest population aged 80
years or over in 2013
Country
United Kingdom
Brazil
France
Italy
Russia
Germany
Japan
India
United States
China
2013
3-4 million
3-4 million
3-4 million
3-4 million
3-4 million
3-4 million
09-million
10-million
12-million
23-million
2050
37-million
32-million
90-million
Sex Ratio of Older Population
Year
2013
2050
Sex
Male
Female
Male
Female
60 Y
85
100
87
100
65Y
80
100
83
100
80Y
62
100
69
100
The gradually increasing sex ratio over time is due to the
somewhat faster projected decline in adult and old-age
mortality of men compared to women,
Sex Ratio in Major Areas of the World
Region
World
Africa
Asia
Europe
Latin America
N-America
60 years-above
84 F—100 M
84 F—100 M
91 F—100 M
72 F—100 M
81 F—100 M
82 F—100 M
80 Years –Above
60 F—100 M
68 F—100 M
70 F—100 M
50 F—100 M
65 F—100 M
60 F—100 M
Marital Status
The marital status of older persons is mostly determined by the mortality rates of
spouses and remarriage rates. Male spouses are more likely to die before their
wives because of the higher male mortality and the fact that men tend to marry
younger wives. In most societies, remarriage probabilities are lower for older
women than for older men, partly because of the reduced availability of men of
similar or older age.
Proportion currently married among persons aged 60 years or over by sex in
world and development regions, 2005–2008 was:
Region
World
More Developed Region
Less Developed Region
Asia
Africa
Europe
L.America
N.America
Male (%)
80
78
81
82
85
78
74
75
Female (%)
48
47
49
51
38
44
42
48
Living Arrangements
The living arrangements of older persons are determined by cultural norms regarding co-residence and intergenerational ties and familial support. Living arrangements are also fundamentally affected by demographic
change, and, in particular, by population ageing. In an aged population, older persons have relatively fewer
children and grandchildren than in a youthful population. Partly because of this situation, older persons in
more aged populations are less likely to live in multi-generational households and are more likely to live
independently, that is, either alone or with a spouse only. The longer life spans associated with ageing
populations open opportunities for more complex intergenerational living arrangements, such as three- or
even four-generation households (United Nations, 2005).
Proportion living arrangements of persons aged 60 years or over in 2005
Region
Men
Living Alone
(%)
Men Living with Women
Women Living with
Spouse (%)
Living Alone (%) Spouse (%)
World
11
29
19
22
More D.
Region
16
58
33
37
Less D.
Region
09
20
10
16
Characteristics of the older population
Health of the Older Population
Increasing life expectancy raises the question of whether longer life spans
result in more years of life in good health, or whether it is associated with
increased morbidity and more years spent in prolonged disability and
dependency. The major causes of disability and health problems in old age are
non-communicable diseases including the “four giants of geriatrics,” namely:
memory loss, urinary incontinence, depression and falls or immobility, as well
as some communicable diseases and injuries.
As population age, health expenditures tend to grow rapidly since older
persons usually require more health care in general and more specialized
services to deal with their more complex pathologies. The number of deaths
also increases sharply due to the exponential increase in mortality with age.
Furthermore, older women generally experience higher rates of morbidity and
disability than older men, in large part because of their longer life expectancy
(WHO, 2007).
Submitted to:
Dr Hafeez
Department of Anthropology
Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad
CHAPTER 9
The Urban
Transition
Submitted y:
Roomi S. Hayat
First Ph.D. Semester 2014
Department of Anthropology
Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad
Contents
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
WHAT IS THE URBAN TRANSITION?
Defining Urban Places
WHAT ARE THE DRIVERS OF THE
URBAN TRANSITION?
Precursors
Current Patterns
The Urban Hierarchy and City
Systems
An Illustration from Mexico
An Illustration from China
THE PROXIMATE DETERMINANTS OF
THE URBAN TRANSITION
Internal Rural-to-Urban Migration
Natural Increase
Sex Ratios in Cities
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
International Urbanward Migration
Reclassification
Metropolitanization and
Agglomeration
THE URBAN EVOLUTION THAT
ACCOMPANIES THE URBAN
TRANSITION
Urban Crowding
Slums
Suburbanization and Exurbanization
Residential Segregation
CITIES AS SUSTAINABLE
ENVIRONMENTS
ESSAY: NIMBY and BNANA—The
Politics
of Urban Sprawl in America
Preamble
• 1850 only 2 percent world population lived in cities of
100,000 or more people.
• 1900, it edged up to 6 percent,
• 1950 and it had risen to 16 percent by (Davis 1972).
• just one century, from 1850 to 1950, cities had pulled in
one of every six human beings,
• 2000, half the population was living in an urban place.
• 2050 two-thirds of all people living in urban areas
(United Nations Population Division 2006b).
WHAT IS THE URBAN TRANSITION?
• The urban transition represents the reorganization of human
society from being predominantly rural and agricultural to being
predominantly urban and nonagricultural (Firebaugh 1979).
• It is no exaggeration to suggest that this is a genuinely revolutionary
shift in society.
• In 1964, Reissman described it this way: Urbanization is social
change on a vast scale.
• It means deep and irrevocable changes that alter all sectors of a
society. In our own history [the United States] the shift from an
agricultural to an industrial society has altered every aspect of
social life . . . the whole institutional structure was affected as a
consequence of our urban development.
• Apparently, the process is irreversible once begun. The impetus of
urbanization upon society is such that society gives
Defining Urban Places
• An urban place can be thought of as a concentration
of people whose lives are organized around
nonagricultural activities.
• urban means high density and nonagricultural,
• rural means any place that is not urban. A farming
village of 5,000 people should not be called urban,
• “urban” is a fairly complex concept. It is a function of
1.
2.
3.
4.
population size,
space (land area),
the ratio of population to space (density)
economic and social organization. As the number and
fraction of people
What Are the Drivers of the Urban
Transition?
• the urban transition is the same concept as
urbanization and refers to the change in the
proportion of a population living in urban places;
• it is a relative measure ranging from 0 percent, if a
population is entirely rural or agricultural, to 100
percent, if a population is entirely urban.
• The earliest cities were not very large, because most of
them were not demographically self-sustaining. The
ancient city of Babylon (about 50 miles south of
modern Baghdad, Iraq) might have had 50,000 people,
Athens possibly 80,000, and Rome as many as 500,000;
Precursors
• Early cities had to be constantly replenished by migrants
from the hinterlands, because they had higher death rates
and lower birth rates than the countryside did, which
usually resulted in an annual excess of deaths over births.
• The economically self-sustaining character of modern
urban areas began with the transformation of economies
based on agriculture (produced in the countryside) to those
based on manufactured goods (produced in the city) and
has expanded to those based on servicing the rest of the
economy (and often located in the suburbs).
• Control of the economy made it far easier for cities to
dominate rural areas politically and thus ensure their own
continued existence in economic terms.
Current Patterns
• In the contemporary post-industrial world characterized by
what is often called “advanced capitalism,”
• the function of cities is changing again. In the developed,
already urbanized, part of the world, cities are losing their
industrial base and are increasingly service centers to
economic activities occurring in the hinterlands of the same
country, or in another country altogether,
• essentially reversing the trends of the mid-nineteenth to
mid-twentieth centuries.
• In less-developed countries, commercial and industrial
activities combine with historically unprecedented rates of
city growth to generate patterns of urbanization somewhat
different from that which occurred in the now-developed
nations.
The Urban Hierarchy and City Systems
• In every nation of the world there is one city that stands
out as the leading urban center and is noticeably more
populous than other cities in the region.
• Such a place is called a primate city—a disproportionately
large leading city holding a central place in the economy of
the country.
• Other cities are less important, but may have their own
pecking order, so to speak.
• In the 1930s, Christaller (1966) developed the concept of
central place theory to describe why and how some cities
were territorially central and thus in a position to control
markets and the regional economy.
An Illustration from Mexico
• The impact of population processes on the urban transition is
illustrated from the perspective of rural areas by what has happened
to people in one village in Mexico.
• Historically, the site was the capital of the Tarascan empire (Brandes
1990), but today it is a village of artisans, farmers, merchants, and
teachers. For nearly 400 years, the population of Tzintzuntzan stayed
right at about 1,000 people (Foster 1967).
• by 1950 the death rate was down to 17 per 1,000 and the birth rate
had risen. Better medical care had reduced miscarriage and stillbirth,
and in 1950 the village had 1,336 people (Foster 1967).
• By 1970 the population had reached about 2,200 (twice the 1940
size); if not for out-migration the population would again have
doubled in about 20 years (Kemper and Foster 1975).
An Illustration from China
China is a very interesting case of urbanization
because it is one of the few countries in the world
where the government fairly successfully “kept
them down on the farm.” The Chinese Communist
Party officially adopted an anti-urban policy when it
came to power in 1949, believing that cities were a
negative “Western” influence, and Chinese
government policies in the 1960s and 1970s were
designed to counteract the urban transition
occurring in most of the rest of the world.
The Proximate Determinants of the
Urban Transition
• As the urban population climb over time, we may assume
that the explanation is very easy—people move out of rural
areas into urban areas.
• The urban transition occurs not only as a result of internal
rural to urban migration, but also through natural increase,
international urban migration, reclassification of places
from rural to urban, and combinations of these processes.
• Another important thing to keep in mind is that the urban
transition, in the simple sense of urbanization or the
percentage of people living in an urban place, may end
when nearly everybody is living in an urban area,
• the urban evolution— changes taking place within urban
areas—may continue forever
Internal Rural-to-Urban Migration
• The migration of people within a country from rural to urban
places represents the classic definition of the urban
transition because it is intuitively the most obvious way by
which a population can be shifted from countryside to
curbside.
• There is no question that in the developed countries, ruralto-urban migration was a major force in the process of
urbanization.
• Over time, the agricultural population of these countries has
tended to decline in absolute numbers, as well as in relative
terms, even in the face of overall population growth.
• In less-developed countries, though, rural-to-urban migration
has been occurring in large absolute terms, but without a
consequent depopulation of rural areas
Natural Increase
• The underlying source of urbanization throughout the
world is the rate of natural increase of the rural population.
• The decline in death rates in rural places, without a
commensurate drop in the birth rate, has led to
overpopulation in rural areas (too many people for the
available number of jobs) and causes people to seek
employment elsewhere (the now-familiar tale of
demographic change and response).
• If there were no opportunities for rural-to-urban migration,
then the result might simply be that the death rate would
eventually rise again in rural areas to achieve a balance
between population and resources (the “Malthusian”
solution).
Mortality
• Kingsley Davis (1973) estimated that in the city of Stockholm,
Sweden, in 1861–70, the average life expectancy at birth was
only 28 years;
• the life expectancy was 45 years for the whole country
• the diffusion of death control has usually started in the cities
and spread from there to the countryside. This phenomenon,
though, actually required a crucial reversal in the original
urban-rural difference in mortality.
• When the now-industrialized nations were urbanizing, death
rates were higher in the city than in the countryside (see, for
example, Williams and Galley 1995) and this helped keep the
rate of natural increase in the city lower than in rural areas.
• In turn, that meant that rural-to-urban migration was a more
important factor influencing the urban percentage in a
country.
Fertility
• We can usually anticipate that people residing in urban
areas will have fairly distinctive ways of behaving compared
with rural dwellers.
• Differences in the urban and rural fertility are among the
most well documented in the literature of demographic
research. John Graunt, the seventeenth-century English
demographer
• Concluded that London marriages were less fruitful than
those in the country because of “the intemperance in
feeding, and especially the Adulteries and Fornications,
supposed more frequent in London than elsewhere . . .
• the minds of men in London are more thoughtful and full of
business than in the Country”
Sex Ratios in Cities
• Males are generally more likely to migrate than
females,
• We can deduce that migrants to cities are more
likely to be men than women.
• Although this pattern is generally found around
the world, there is considerable regional
variability (Brockerhoff 2000; Clarke 2000).
• Where the status of women is low, the
movement of women tends to be more
restricted, and so males are more dominant
among rural-urban migrants.
International Urban ward Migration
• International migration also operates to increase the level of
urbanization, because most international migrants move to cities
in the host area regardless of where they lived in the donor area.
• From the standpoint of the host area, then, the impact of
international migration is to naturally add to the urban population
without adding significantly to the rural population, thereby
shifting a greater proportion of the total to urban places.
• More than 90 percent of immigrants to the United States wind up
as urban residents in big cities or their suburbs (Gober 2000),
• a fact driven home in 2007 by data from the U.S. Census Bureau
showing that several cities in the U.S. would have lost population
had it not been for the influx of international migrants (U.S.
Census Bureau 2007).
Reclassification
• the urban transition to occur “in-place.” when the absolute size of
a place grows so large, by migration, natural increase, or both, that
it reaches or exceeds the minimum size criterion used to
distinguish urban from rural places.
• Reclassification is an administrative phenomenon and is based on
a unidimensional (size-only) definition of urban places, rather than
also incorporating any concept of economic and social activity.
• A place grows in absolute size will diversify economically and
socially, to agricultural activities into urban enterprises.
• This tends to be part of the social change that occurs everywhere
in response to an increase in population size; an agricultural
population can quickly become redundant and the lure of urban
activities (such as industry, commerce, and services) may be strong
under those conditions.
Metropolitanization and
Agglomeration
• The cities grown so large and their influence extended far that
a distinction is often made between metropolitan and
nonmetropolitan areas, definitions developed to refine the
more traditional terms of urban and rural.
• This happened first in the richer countries such as the United
States, and back in 1949 the U.S. Census Bureau developed the
concept of a standard metropolitan area (SMA), consisting of a
county with a core city of at least 50,000 people and a
population density of at least 1,000 people per square mile.
• The concept proved useful in conjunction with the 1950 census
and was subsequently revised to be called the standard
metropolitan statistical area (SMSA).
The Urban Evolution that
Accompanies the Urban Transition
• As the richer countries approach a situation where
almost everybody lives in urban places, it is important
to remember that the end of the urban transition does
not necessarily signal the end of the process of urban
evolution (Pumain 2004).
• The mere fact that people are increasingly likely to live
in places defined as urban does not mean that the
urban environment itself stops changing and evolving
across time and space. Indeed, there is probably more
variability among urban places.
Urban Crowding
• For centuries, the crowding of people into cities was
doubtless harmful to existence.
• Packing people together in unsanitary houses in dirty
cities raised death rates.
• Furthermore, as is so often the case, as cities grew to
unprecedented sizes in nineteenth century
• Europe, death struck unevenly within the population.
Mortality went down faster for the better off, leaving
the slums as the places where lower-income people
were crowded into areas “with their sickening odor of
disease, vice and crime” (Weber 1899:414).
Slums
• European & US cities dealt with slums in the late 19th and
early 20th centuries, as cities bulged with migrants who
overran the local infrastructure.
• That process of rapid growth is now taking place in the
cities of developing countries, so it is not surprising that the
world’s slums tend to be concentrated there.
• UN-Habitat defines slums as places that lack one or more of
the following: (1) access to potable water, (2) access to
piped sewerage, (3) housing of adequate space, (4) housing
of adequate durability, and (5) security of tenure (UNHabitat 2006).
• Nearly one in six human beings is estimated by the UN to
be living in a slum, and nearly one in three urban residents
lives in one.
Suburbanization and Ex-urbanization
• Crowded into a slum represents the worst aspect of city life.
• These negative impacts of the urban transition represent the set
of unintended consequences that prevent the city from being as
attractive as it might otherwise be.
• The efficiencies of the city have generally been translated into
higher incomes for city dwellers than for farmers
• the larger the city, the higher the wages tend to be.
• Wage differentials undoubtedly have been and continue to be
prime motivation for individuals to move to cities and stay there.
• That is not to say that people necessarily prefer to live in cities,
but the reality is that it is largely within cities that economic
opportunities lie,
Residential Segregation
• Suburbia has become a legendary part of American society and
seems to be a major force of urban evolution,
• Suburbanization can be viewed as an innovation.
• In particular, it is a residential transformation that
disproportionately involved whites in the United States until
the 1970s. For example, in 1970 in 15 large areas studied by
Farley (1976), 58 percent of whites lived in the suburbs
compared with 17 percent of nonwhites.
• 1930s, the proportion of whites living in central cities declined
steadily and the proportion of African Americans rose steeply
(Schnore, Andre, and Sharp 1976);
• the African American population was undergoing a very rapid
urbanization at the same time that whites were suburbanizing.
Cities as Sustainable Environments
• For better or worse, human existence is increasingly tied to
the city, which raises the key question of whether cities are
sustainable places for humans to live.
• “Poor countries’ cities are bursting at the seams, yet rural
migrants are coming in faster than ever; a social and
environmental meltdown is waiting to happen” (The
Economist 1996:44).
• These very same concerns were echoed ten years later at
UN-Habitat’s World Urban Forum III held again in
Vancouver—a city that the Economist Intelligence Unit
rated as the best city in the world for combining business
with pleasure (Copetake 2006),
• The opportunities that cities offer to rural peasants in lessdeveloped nations may seem meager to those of us raised
in a wealthier society.
Summary and Conclusion
• The urban transition describes the process whereby a society
shifts from being bound to the country to being bound by city.
• historically the close companion of economic development,
suggests the close theoretical connection of the urban transition
with the other facets of the demographic transition.
• Urban transition is associated with increasing differentiation
among cities, leading to urban hierarchies throughout the world.
• All country has its rank-ordering of cities, there is also a world
ranking, leading to designation of cities as being global cities.
• These are generally thought of as being core cities; the other
peripheral cities depend on the core for their place in the global
economic scheme of things.
Concluding Points
1. The world is at the point at which one of every two people lives
in an urban area; by the middle of this century, nearly two out of
three will be there.
2. The urban transition reflects the process whereby human society
moves from being predominantly rural to being largely urban.
3. Highly urban nations like England and the United States were
almost entirely agricultural at the beginning of the 19th century.
4. Cities are centerpieces of the development process associated
with demographic transitions because they are centers of
economic efficiency.
5. Cities throughout the world are arranged in urban hierarchies
that are often described in terms of the core and periphery
model.
Concluding Points
6. Till 20th, death rates in cities were high & fertility so low that
cities couldn’t have grown without migration from the country.
7. In all society, fertility levels are lower in cities than in rural areas,
yet cities in less-developed nations have higher fertility levels
than cities in developed nations.
8. The urban transition is morphing into the urban evolution, as
urban places become increasingly spread out and complex.
9. Urbanization in the US has now turned into suburbanization, with
most Americans living in suburbs—a trend that is spreading to
the rest of the world.
10. Population growth in cities has given rise to fears about the
potential harmful effects of crowding, and especially to concerns
about the environmental sustainability of cities.
Family and household transition
Definition
In general terms, we can describe the family and
household transition as the increasing diversity in
family and household structure occasioned by
people living longer, with fewer children born,
increasingly in urban settings, and subject to
higher standards of living, all as part of the
demographic transition. Households no longer
depend on marriage for their creation, nor do
they depend on death to dissolve them, and
children are encountered in a wide array of
household and living arrangements.
Why family and household in
transition?
• (1) people are living longer which means that they are
more likely to be widowed, more likely to tire of the
current spouse and divorce, and less likely to feel
pressure to marry early and begin childbearing;
• (2) the latter pressure is relieved by the decline in
fertility, which means that women, in particular, do not
need to begin childbearing at such a young age, and
both men and women have many years of life after the
children are grown; and
• (3) an increasingly urban population is presented with
many acceptable lifestyle options besides marriage and
family-building
Why family?
• family unit, In a general sense, any group of people who are
related to one another by marriage, birth, or adoption. The
nature of the family, then, is that it is a kinship unit.
• Household is a residential unit
• But it is also a minisociety, a micropopulation that
experiences births, deaths, and migration, as well as
changing age structures as it goes through its own life
course. The changes that occur in the broader population—
the subject of this book in general—mainly occur within the
context of the family unit, so the study of population
necessitates that we study the family
The Growing Diversity in Household
Composition and Family Structure
• The “traditional” family household of a married couple
and their children is no longer the statistical norm in
North America and in many other parts of the world
• Families headed by females, especially with no
husband present, are increasingly common, as are
“nontraditional” households inhabited by unmarried
people (including nevermarried, divorced, widowed,
and cohabiting couples, who may represent opposite
sex or same sex couples), by older adults raising their
grandchildren, or by married couples with no children
Continued
• The demographic transition does not inherently
produce gender equity and the empowerment of
women, but it creates the conditions under which
they are much more likely to happen. The
combination of longer life and lower fertility,
even if achieved in an environment in which
women are still oppressed, opens the eyes of
society— including women themselves—to the
fact that women are in a position to contribute in
the same way that men do when not burdened
by full-time parenting responsibility
• At the beginning of the twentieth century, it would
have been unthinkable for a woman in America to go
out to dinner without being accompanied by a man,
and equally unthinkable for her to drive one of the cars
that were making their first appearance at that time. At
the beginning of the twenty-first century, those things
are still unthinkable to most women in Saudi Arabia
(one of the world’s most gender-segregated societies),
but just as demographic changes were occurring in the
United States 100 years ago, so they are occurring in
Saudi Arabia today (Yamani 2000)
Delayed Marriage Accompanied by
Leaving the Parental Nest
• One of the most important mechanisms
preventing women from achieving equality with
men is early marriage. When a girl is encouraged
or even forced to marry at a young age, she is
likely to be immediately drawn into a life of
childbearing and family building that makes it
very difficult, if not impossible, for her to
contemplate other options in life. This is one of
the principal reasons why high fertility is so
closely associated with low status for women.
Cohabitation
• When leaving the parental home, young
people may set up an independent household
either by living alone or sharing a household
with nonfamily members, or they may move
into non-household group quarters such as a
college dormitory. From these vantage points,
many then proceed to cohabitation
• This trend increased the chances to have sex
without having children.
Divorce
• Not only has marriage been increasingly
pushed to a later age, but once accomplished,
marriages are also more likely to end in
divorce than at any previous time in history.
This trend reflects many things. An obvious
reason is that changes in divorce laws since
the 1970s have made it easier for either
partner to end the marriage at any time for
any reason
Education
• The world as a whole has been experiencing
an increasing equalization of education among
males and females—an important component
in raising the global status of women. The
ratio of females per males attending
secondary school has been steadily increasing
worldwide from since at least the 1970s,
according to World Bank estimates
• The fact that education alters the way you view the
world also has implications for the marriage market in
the United States. For much of American history, a
major concern in choosing a marriage partner was to
pick someone who shared your religious background
• Over time, however, the salience of religion has given
way to “educational homogamy”—people want to
marry someone with similar amounts of education,
thus education has been replacing religion as an
especially important factor in spouse selection
• The greater proportion of people going to
college has altered the lifestyles of many
young Americans. It has been accompanied by
delayed marriage, delayed and diminished
childbearing and, consequently, higher perperson income among young adult
householders. Young people today have more
personal disposable income than any previous
generation
Labor force participation
• As education increases, so does the chance of
being in the labor force. Among both males and
females in the United States in 2000, the higher
the level of education attainment among people
aged 25 and older, the higher the percentage of
people who were currently in the labor force
• Women are less likely than men to be in the labor
force at any given level of education, but it is
nonetheless true that the pattern over time has
been for women to be working more, and men to
be working less.
Main points
households with children are declining as a
fraction of all households, being replaced by a variety of other
family and nonfamily household types.
• 2. The direct causes of these changes in household
composition are a delay in marriage, and increase in
cohabitation and out-of-wedlock births, a rise in the
propensity to divorce, and, to a lesser extent, widowhood in
the older population.
• 3. The underlying indirect causes of these changes are the
several other transitions associated with the overall
demographic transition, including declining mortality,
declining fertility, migration to urban areas, and the
underlying age structure changes brought about over time by
demographic change.
•
1. Married-couple
• 4. The transformation of families and households has
accompanied improved life chances for women, including
higher levels of education, labor force participation,
occupation, and income.
• 5. Average educational attainment has increased
substantially over time in most countries, and, especially in
industrialized nations, women have been rapidly closing the
gender gap in education.
• 6. In the United States during World War II, a combination
of demand for labor and too few traditional labor force
entrants created an opening for married women to move
into jobs previously denied them, and since 1940, the rates
of labor force participation have risen for women,
especially married women, while declining for men.
• 7. Over time in the United States, poverty has declined
while at the same time Americans of almost all
statuses have become wealthier in real absolute terms,
but there have been only minor changes in the relative
status of most groups.
• 8. Race may be just “a pigment of your imagination,”
but blacks, in particular, tend to be disadvantaged
compared to whites in American society.
• 9. The diversity of households seems to have plateaued
in richer nations but is on the rise in most of the rest of
the world.