Centro de Predicción Numérica del Tiempo y Clima
Instituto Geofísico del Perú
Weather forecasting using MM5 in Peru
and new perspective for climate
modeling
Yamina Silva
Using RegCM for Climate Studies
• Precipitation climatology in Peru
• Challenge for modeling in complex terrain.
• Using the models for weather prediction (MM5)
• Climate change studies for a pilot region
Precipitation Climatology
Lima (13 masl), annual precip. 16mm
Iquitos (126 masl),
annual precip. 2770mm
Huayao (3,350masl)
Annual precip. 756mm
Challenge for modeling in complex terrain
Northern coast (positive rainfall anomaly)
Chira-Piura basin
1979-2000 Monthly Precipitation in Piura region
1400
El Niño 1983
El Niño 1992
El Niño 1987
1200
El Niño 1998
Piura
Tumbes
Talara
mm/month
1000
800
600
Huge positive anomaly in
temp. And precip. during
“EL Niño" events:
400
200
0
79 80
81 82 83 84 85
86 87 88 89
90 91 92 93
94 95 96 97
98 99 00 01 02
03
Agriculture (Rice, limon,
cotton, etc).
Fishery
Floods and diseases.
Precipitation vs SST
Ref.: Dr. R.Woodman, 1998
The Central Andes 500-5000 meters (negative anomaly?)
1979-2000 Monthly Precipitation in the central Andes
Mantaro basin
150
ANGASMAYO
HUANCAVELICA
100
50
0
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
00 01 02 03 79
40% of electric energy of
Perú is generated by a
hydroelectric power plant
on this river (Mantaro
river).
The Altiplano of Peru 3000-4000 meters (negative anomaly)
1979-2000 Monthly Precipitation in the Altiplano Region
El Titicaca basin
300
Lagunillas
Juliaca
250
mm/month
200
150
100
50
0
79 80 81 82 83
84 85 86 87 88
89 90 91 92 93 94 95
96 97 98 99 00
01 02 03
Negative anomaly during
El Niño events (1983, 1992)
Some experiences with the MM5
• Weather forecasting
• Modeling some extreme events during the summer
• Simulation with high resolution domain (nesting)
• Evaluation of cumulus and PBL schemes
ACTUAL CONFIGURATION OF MM5 RUNNING IN PERU
MM5 Version 3.3:
Nesting with 3 Domains:
South America: 54x54km (180x205)
Perú: 18x18km (124x100)
Lima: 6x6km (100x100)
WS Compaq ES-40
60 hours forecast
Cumulus: Grell
Explicit: Simple ice
PBL: Gayno-Seaman
IC & BC: AVN
4 CPU, 2 GB RAM
500MHz
18.2 GB HD (2 HD)
Precipitation forecast for the 3 domains
Extreme precipitation events during the 18 and 19 March of 2001
(North of Peru, Piura)
24Pronostico
hour precipitation
(MM5,
18km resolution)
del Modelo
MM5
24 hour precipitation (estimated by GOES)
CPS sensibility
•GOES Estimated precipitation
• (Vicente, at.al, 1998)
Evaluation of Grell convective scheme
March 2000
•GOES Estimated precipitation (Vicente, at.al, 1998)
vs MM5 precipitation - 24 hours acumulated
September 1999
 1 ; ( M  E ) / E  0.5

I   0 ;  0.5  ( M  E ) / E  0.5
 1 ; ( M  E ) / E  0.5

Grell convective scheme
March 2000
September 1999
During the intense rainy period, Grell CPS tends to overstimate the precip.
CORRELACION INDEX
GRELL CPS
Region
Ecuatorial
Subtropical
March 2000
0.79
0.45
September 1999
0.09 *
0.61
* Is equal to 0.78 if we not consider the model values greeter then
10mm (M>10)
Region
Ecuatorial
Subtropical
KUO CPS
March 2000
0.44
0.15
Septembee1999
0.12
0.35
•Ecuatorial region: 80ºW-40ºW / 10ºS-10ºN,
•Subtropical region:80ºW-40ºW / 30ºS-10ºS.
Silva and Takahashi, 2000 (MM5 Users workshop)
What we expect of using RegCM for Climate
Studies
• Climate variability, El Niño response for a regional (local)
scale
• Simulate some extreme events during the rainy season
• Using RegCM for climate change studies (high resolution)
=> Pilot points for studing:
1. Mantaro Basin (central Andes)
2. Chira-Piura basin (northern coast)
3. Titicaca basin (southern Andes)
The GCM could represent the general pattern, but not the detals,
specially over the Andes
Monthly precipitation (mm/day) March 2003
(GCM CPTEC/COLA, T42)
Domain 1 for South America: 80km (90x110), 11 levels,
IC-BC: CPTEC/COLA GCM, 3 months simulations (16 Feb-02 May 2003)
Precipitation rate (mm/day)
March 2003 (RegCM)
Precipitation rate (mm/day)
March 2003 (GOES estimated)
Domain for Peru: 30km (90x110), 11 levels,
IC-BC: RegCM Domain 1 (80km), 3 months simulations (16 Feb-02 May
2003)
Precipitation rate (mm/day)
March 2003 (RegCM)
Precipitation rate (mm/day)
March 2003 (GOES estimated)
RegCM vs Observed precipitation
Precipitation rate (mm/day)
March 2003 (RegCM)
Monthly Precipitation amount (mm/month)
March 2003 (Observed-DCPs )
Sub-project: Integrated local evaluation
in the Mantaro Basin.
National project for Climate change and adaptation,
supported by the government of Holland: 2003-2005
Objectives:
• Interannual climate variability studies and extend it for
climate change.
• Identify vulnerable areas
•
•
•
•
Questions? If the global temperature increase?
How will change the water resources in the basin?
What could be the agricultural impact?
Social impacts, etc…
Mining region
Agricultural region
Hydroelectric
station
High resolution domain:
HOPES!: Non-Hydrostatic RegCM, with nesting,
using the global model
scenarios.
Conclusion
• The climate variability studies in the regional/local
scales using the numerical climate models are an
important issue for Peru, and also the challenge because
of the complex terrain.
• We hope that the climate change scenarios for Peru
using the RegCM, will became reality and the results will
help for the future national planes.
• The collaborations in the climate variability and climate
changes studies are very welcome.
Centro de Predicción Numérica del Tiempo y Clima
Instituto Geofísico del Perú
Many thanks!
E-mail: yamina@chavin.igp.gob.pe