Outline
1.
1.
Why Wind
Wind Power
Power in
in China
China
Why
2.
Development of Wind Power
Worldwide and in China
3.
Wind Energy Potential Study for China
4.
Discussion on Wind Policy
2
CDIAC, 2007
The new-type “energy crisis” is not from the shortage of energy
reserves but from the carbon emissions during fossil fuel burning and
their implications with climate change.
global average
CDIAC, 2007
•
Carbon emissions have
increased by 79.2% since
2000 due to rapid growth of
coal consumption.
•
Coal accounted for 99% of
the emissions total in 1950
and 73% in 2006
•
2006 marks the first year
China's per capita emission
rate (1.27 metric tons of
carbon) exceeded the global
average (1.25 metric tons of
carbon).
• China surpassed the
US and became the
largest CO2 emitter in
2006 due to fossil-fuel
use and cement
production.
• China and US take
over 40% of the global
CO2 emissions in 2007
CDIAC, 2007
Source: Expert Interview; Literature research; McKinsey analysis
1 Tonnes CO2 associated with generation of 1 MWh electricity from coal
6000 TWh ~ 6,000,000,000 Tonnes CO2 per year
Outline
1.
Why Wind Power in China
2.
2.
Development of Wind Power
Worldwide and in China
3.
Wind Power Potential Study for China
4.
Discussion on Wind Policy
8
Installed capacity is increasing EXPONENTIALLY!
IEA in its 2007 alternative Policy Scenario projected the possibility of an 18fold increase in wind electricity generation globally by 2030.
(WWEA, 2007)
9
Capacity has been doubling every year in recent
years- the market becomes No.1 in the world.
• The total capacity of wind power in China
reached 12.2 GW, realizing the target of 10 GW
by 2010 two years earlier.
• The target of 30 GW by 2020 (in 2007) will be
adjusted to the 100 GW in the “Development
Plan for New Energy ”.
• Three offshore wind turbines have been
installed near to Shanghai Dongdaqiao ; the
entire wind farm will consist of 34 wind
turbines (3MW) and is expected to supply
electricity for Shanghai Expo in 2010.
100%
75%
75
70
55
43
24
Annual
Market
Foreign
50%
25%
25
30
2004
2005
45
57
76
Domestic+JV
0%
2006
2007
2008
100%
75%
50%
82
77
25%
0%
66
53
38
Cumulative
Market
Foreign
18
23
34
2004
2005
2006
47
2007
62
2008
Domestic+JV
Data source: Pengfei Shi, 2008
China plans to build several 10 GW wind bases in Gansu,
Inner Mongolia, Hebei and Jiangsu by 2020.
• China is the 2nd largest
country of electricity
consumption
• Demand for electricity in
China was growing at an
annual rate of near
to10% in the past
decade.
• Wind electricity only
accounts for 0.4%
national wide.
Outline
1.
Why Wind Power in China
2.
Development of Wind Power
Worldwide and in China
3.
Wind
Potential Study
Study for
for China
China
Wind Energy
Power Potential
4.
Discussion on Wind Policy
15
 Combination of a wide range of observations and
the simulation results from AGCM.
 Global coverage with horizontal resolution: 2/3 ×1/2
degree and records of wind activity every 6 hours
 A terrain-following coordinate system defined by 72
vertical layers; 3 lowest layers being used to
interpolate the wind speed and air density at 80m
 5-year interval from 2004-2008 was adopted in
present study to account for the inter-annual
variability
16
Empirical Relation:
AT=5D×9D=45D2
, where D=Rotor Diameter
to ensure the power loss ≤ 10%.
Unit Area of Onshore Turbines:
(Masters, 2004)
GE 1.5 MW turbine, D=82.5 m:
AT = 0.31 km2
1km2 land area: 3~4 onshore turbines
17
Land use
Point
Map
Polygon
Map
Slope
Raster
Map
CF: the power yield expressed as a
fraction of the rated power potential of
the installed turbines over the course of
a year.
Typical Range: 20% to 45%
20
Only account the regions with CF ≥ 20%
Constraints : Suitable areas only and capacity factor ≥20%
Distance: 50 nautical miles (or 92.6 km) from the
nearest coastline
Water depth: 0 – 200m
Onshore
(PWh)
24.7
0-20 m
1.7
Offshore (PWh)
20 – 50 m
50-200 m
2.0
1.8
Constraints : Suitable areas only and capacity factor ≥20%
• Onshore wind resources could provide potentially as
much as 24.7 PWh of electricity annually, more than 7
times current national electricity consumption.
• Offshore wind energy potential along the coastline of
China mainland is also significant and comparable to
current load demand in China
Features of Wind Concession Policy in China:
Competitive Tendering Tariff
• Investors are selected through public tendering
by the government.
• The concession period is set at 25 years.
• Power purchase agreement.
• Price difference shared across the national grid.
• Guaranteed price period of 30,000 equivalent full
load hours; price in the subsequent period set by
the power market.
• 70% local-content requirement, since 2005
,
Pt: bus-bar price of wind electricity to be estimated (RMB/kWh) during the initial
fixed price period; Pt = 0.4 RMB/kWh during the subsequent period;
(1 US dollar ≈ 6.8 RMB; 1 EURO ≈ 8.8 RMB )
Total Electricity
Generation in China
2008: 3.4 PWh
At 0.516 RMB/kWh (about 0.76 US Cents/kWh, or 5.9 EURO
Cents/kWh), corresponding to the CF of 27.8%, total windgenerated electricity will be 7 PWh, comparable to total electricity
demand projected for 2030.
• Meeting the increased demand for electricity
anticipated for China in 2030 will require
construction of the equivalent of 800 GW of coalfired power plants.
• If the additional electricity is supplied mainly by coal,
emissions of CO2 in 2030 might increase by 3.5
gigatonnes per year.
• If 30% additional electricity is supplied by wind in
2030, it will require installation of 640 GW of wind
farms over the 20-year period.
• Approximate cost is estimated 6 trillion RMB not
formidably high compare to current China’s GDP of
26 trillion RMB).
McElroy, M. B., Lu, X., Nielsen, C. P., & Wang, Y. (2009) Potential for WindGenerated Electricity in China Science 325, 1378-1380.
Outline
1.
Why wind power in China
2.
Development of Wind Power
Worldwide and in China
3.
Wind Energy Potential Study for China
4.
Discussion
for Wind Policy
More Discussion
33
Weight of price
point decreased
Lowest
price Won
Preference of
average price
Price
(RMB/kWh)
Regions
0.51
Innermongolia（except Chifeng, Tongliao, Xing’an League，
Hulunbeier）,
XinJiang: Urumchi Yili area, Changji, Karamayi, Shihezi(Xinjiang)
0.54
He Bei: Zhangjiakou, Chegde;
Innermongolia: Chifeng, Tongliao, Xing’an League, Hulumbir,
Gansu: Zhangye, Jiayuguan, Jiuquan(Gansu)
0.58
JiLin: Baicheng, Songyuan,
Heilongjiang: Jixi, Shuangyashan, Qitaihe, Suihua, Yichun,
Daxing’an Ling
Gansu: all the area except Zhangye, Jiayuguan, Jiuquan
Xinjiang, All the area except Urumchi Yili area, Changji,
Karamayi,
0.61
All the area except the above mentioned area
Pros
 Guarantee the interest of return for wind farms
 Attract more private or international investors to develop
wind energy
 Simplify the government approval procedure for wind
projects
 Boost a healthier industry chain for wind power
Cons
 Still lack of incentive policy to improve the integration of
transmission grid and to coordinate the grid for larger wind
power penetration or other renewable energy
development.
Thanks to the my advisor, Prof. Michael B.
McElroy for his instruction during this study.
The GEOS-5 data were provided by NASA-GMAO
(Global Modeling and Assimilation Office). I am
indebted to Yuanjian Li for research assistance
and Chris Nielsen, Richard M. O’Connell,
Sebastian Meyer, Junfeng Li, Jing Cao and
Yuxuan Wang for their valuable advice. This
research was supported by NSF grant ATM0635548.
Province
Wind Farm
Capacity (MW)
CF estimated (%) CF realized (%)
Inner Mongolia
Huitengxile
100.5
29.5
23.3
Gansu
Anxi
100.5
26.9
18.8
Xinjiang
Xiaocaohu
99
26.8
20.8
Jiangsu
Dongtai
138
24.2
21.7
Jilin
Da’an Dagangzi
198
26.4
24.2
Liaoning
Changtu
Quantou
98.6
24.0
18.8
Heilongjiang
Daqingshan
49.3
26.3
34.2
Capacity weighted average of CF: 25.8%
– SOEs provide unreasonably low biding price to
win the projects
– Private or international bidders hesitate to bid.
– Put pressure on wind turbine suppliers (60-70% of
project cost)
– No income tax contribution to local government