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2012 Presidential Poll
Kenya
Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
Samburu Room
January 12 2012
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Introduction
 The survey was necessitated by the coming General
election in 2012
The survey sort to establish the Presidential candidate’s
popularity
The polls were conducted in countrywide on Monday 12th
December 2012 and Monday 2rd of January 2012.
The sample size considered was 2300 out of which 94%
turned out to be registered voters
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The respondents were proportionally distributed in majority
of counties with respect to the population and geographical
location.
The questionnaire captured different issues with sub issues
that are compared in these surveys
The survey was sponsored by ISS Africa in partnership with
CPR International.
Random sampling and quota sampling methods were
employed
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The degree of confidence was 99% for the survey results.
The survey calculated margin of error of +/-3%
The response rate was 98% for the questionnaires
administered
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Objectives of the Survey
 Presidential candidates popularity, strengths and weakness
 Political party popularity in the country and at the county
level.
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Analysis by Sample
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ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
SAMPLING BY GENDER
FEMALE, 34.40%
MALE, 65.20%
Most approachable gender in terms of politics is male.
Females are a bit conservative in terms of politics.
A member of CPR International
ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
SAMPLING BY AGE
AGE BRACKETS
11.40%
3.70%
0.90%
0.10%
18-29
30-39
50.60%
32.80%
40-49
50-59
60-69
>70
This data can be interpreted to mean that majority of the
respondents or population are youthful and hence as indicated
by the registered voters from IEBC young people will have the
say in the coming general election.
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ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
SAMPLING BY VOTER’S CARD
NO, 5.70%
YES, 93.30%
Validation point of this survey and the finding of the survey can
be considered the opinion of the registered voters largely
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ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
SAMPLING BY RELIGION
OTHER, 4.10%
PROTESTANT,
18.20%
CATHOLIC, 36.90%
MUSLIM, 24.70%
EVANGELICAL,
15.60%
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ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
SAMPLING BY EMPLOYMENT
RETIRED, 1.50%
WORKING FULL
TIME, 15.10%
P/STUDENTS,
6.60%
UNEMPLOYED,
26.80%
SELF EMPLOYED,
49.60%
Majority of the respondents were self employed.
The unemployed rate is high at 26.8 % this shows that
unemployment needs to be tackled seriously as an entity
A member of CPR International
ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
SAMPLING BY POLITICAL INVOLVEMENT
0.70%
11.10%
30.70%
20.20%
VERY INVOLDED
FAIRY INVOLVED
NOT VERY INVOLDED
NOT AT ALL INVOVLED
35.20%
DK
This shows that the awareness level of this country is high and
hence a presidential candidates should tackle real issues in the
upcoming campaigns rather than dwell on propagandas’.
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ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
SAMPLING BY VOTING IN GENERAL ELECTIONS
NO, 7.40%
DK, 8%
YES, 83.20%
This question tends most of the times to be MISREPRESENTED as
its shows the willingness to vote rather than the actual people who
will vote.
This is so largely by the fact that people are held up by other
“Important” engagements.
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ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
REASON FOR NOT VOTING OTHER ASPIRANTS
0.70%
1%
ACCESSIBILITY
4.70%
I DISLIKE HIS/HER
CAMPAIGN TEAM
6%
3.10%
ASSOCIATION WITH A
FORMER LEADER I DISLIKE
10.70%
HAS INSUFFICIENT
RESOURCES
54.90%
LACK OF SUFFICIENT
PUBLICITY
LACK OF EXPERIENCE
9.30%
6.10%
LACK OF EDUCATION
AGE FACTOR
OTHERS
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Analysis by Regions
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ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
POPULAR CANDIDATE – NAIROBI
PETER KENNETH,
1%
OTHERS, 1.40%
GEORGE SAITOTI,
2.60%
UNDECIDED, 7.40%
MARTHA KARUA,
1.90%
WILLIAM RUTO,
3.80%
RAILA ODINGA,
33.40%
KALONZO
MUSYOKA, 12.20%
UHURU KENYATTA,
36%
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ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
POPULAR CANDIDATE - CENTRAL
GEORGE SAITOTI, PETER
5.30%
KENNETH,
MARTHA
KARUA,
6.30%
8%
UNDECIDED, 1.25%
OTHERS, 4.00%
RAILA ODINGA,
2.50%
WILLIAM
RUTO,
1.00%
UHURU KENYATTA,
68%
KALONZO
MUSYOKA, 4.50%
A member of CPR International
ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
POPULAR CANDIDATE – RIFTVALLEY
OTHERS, 2.30%
PETER KENNETH,
2%
GEORGE SAITOTI,
10.00%
MARTHA KARUA,
1.00%
UNDECIDED, 6.90%
RAILA ODINGA,
12.90%
UHURU KENYATTA,
28%
WILLIAM RUTO,
33.40%
KALONZO
MUSYOKA, 3.96%
A member of CPR International
ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
POPULAR CANDIDATE – WESTERN
UNDECIDED,
13.50%
RAILA ODINGA,
28.40%
OTHERS, 23.70%
UHURU KENYATTA,
12%
PETER KENNETH,
1%
GEORGE SAITOTI,
2.30% MARTHA
KARUA, 2%
WILLIAM
RUTO, 9.50%
KALONZO
MUSYOKA, 6.00%
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ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
POPULAR CANDIDATE – EASTERN
GEORGE SAITOTI,
4.20%
PETER KENNETH,
2%
OTHERS,
UNDECIDED, 4.20%
1.00%
MARTHA KARUA,
5.00%
WILLIAM RUTO,
3.00%
RAILA ODINGA,
4.20%
UHURU KENYATTA,
30%
KALONZO
MUSYOKA, 42.00%
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ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
POPULAR CANDIDATE – NYANZA
MARTHA KARUA,
2.00%
WILLIAM RUTO,
3.20%
GEORGE SAITOTI,
2.80%
PETER KENNETH,
1%
UNDECIDED,
OTHERS, 3.20%
4.60%
KALONZO 4.60%
RAILA ODINGA,
67.00%
UHURU
KENYATTA, 10%
A member of CPR International
ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
POPULAR CANDIDATE – COAST
UNDECIDED,
18.00%
PETER KENNETH,
1%
RAILA ODINGA,
22.00%
OTHERS, 14.00%
UHURU
KENYATTA, 19%
GEORGE SAITOTI,
5.00%
MARTHA KARUA,
1.00%
WILLIAM RUTO,
3.50%
KALONZO
MUSYOKA,
17.00%
A member of CPR International
ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
POPULAR CANDIDATE – NORTH EASTERN
PETER KENNETH,
OTHERS, 1.00%
2%
UNDECIDED, 6.70%
MARTHA KARUA,
GEORGE
1.30%
SAITOTI,
10.00%
KALONZO
MUSYOKA, 15.00%
RAILA ODINGA,
20.30%
UHURU KENYATTA,
28%
WILLIAM RUTO,
3.30%
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National Average
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ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
POPULAR POLITICAL PARTY
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ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
Political Parties to watch..
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ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
NATIONAL POPULARITY
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ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
NATIONAL POPULARITY
Turning out to be a 2 Horse Race
RAILA ODINGA Losing Ground why?
- MIGUNA MIGUNA ISSUE
- ODM ELECTION WRANGLES
UHURU KENYATTA – Gaining ground, why?
- STRONG RECOVERY FOR SHILLING
- HAGUE SYMPATHY
- REVAMPING OF KANU
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ISS Africa Presidential Poll – 2012
Published 11th January 2012, Intercontinental Hotel, Nairobi
The gains and losses
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ThankYou
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