Chapter 3 Principles of Corporate Finance Tenth Edition Valuing Bonds Slides by Matthew Will McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright © 2011 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Topics Covered Using The Present Value Formula to Value Bonds How Bond Prices Vary With Interest Rates The Term Structure of Interest Rates Explaining the Term Structure Real and Nominal Rates of Interest Corporate Bonds and the Risk of Default 3- 2 Valuing a Bond 3- 3 1,000 C N C1 C2 PV ... 1 2 N (1 r ) (1 r ) (1 r ) Valuing a Bond Example If today is October 1, 2010, what is the value of the following bond? An IBM Bond pays $115 every September 30 for 5 years. In September 2015 it pays an additional $1000 and retires the bond. The bond is rated AAA (WSJ AAA YTM is 7.5%) Cash Flows Sept 11 12 13 14 15 115 115 115 115 1115 3- 4 Valuing a Bond Example continued If today is October 1, 2010, what is the value of the following bond? An IBM Bond pays $115 every September 30 for 5 years. In September 2015 it pays an additional $1000 and retires the bond. The bond is rated AAA (WSJ AAA YTM is 7.5%) 115 115 115 115 1,115 PV 2 3 4 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.075 1.0755 $1,161.84 3- 5 Valuing a Bond Example - France In December 2008 you purchase 100 Euros of bonds in France which pay a 8.5% coupon every year. If the bond matures in 2012 and the YTM is 3.0%, what is the value of the bond? 8.5 8.5 8.5 108.5 PV 2 3 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.034 120.44 Euros 3- 6 Valuing a Bond Another Example - Japan In July 2010 you purchase 200 Yen of bonds in Japan which pay a 8% coupon every year. If the bond matures in 2015 and the YTM is 4.5%, what is the value of the bond? 16 16 16 16 216 PV 2 3 4 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.045 1.0455 243.57 Yen 3- 7 Valuing a Bond 3- 8 Example - USA In February 2009 you purchase a 3 year US Government bond. The bond has an annual coupon rate of 4.875%, paid semi-annually. If investors demand a 0.6003% semiannual return, what is the price of the bond? PV 24.375 24.375 24.375 24.375 24.375 1024.375 1.006003 1.0060032 1.0060033 1.0060034 1.0060035 1.0060036 $1,107.95 Valuing a Bond Example continued - USA Take the same 3 year US Government bond. If investors demand a 4.0% semiannual return, what is the new price of the bond? PV 24.375 24.375 24.375 24.375 24.375 1024.375 2 3 4 5 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.046 $918.09 3- 9 Year 2008 2002 1996 1990 1984 1978 1972 1966 1960 1954 1948 1942 1936 1930 1924 1918 1912 1906 1900 Yield , % Interest Rate on 10yr Treasuries 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 3- 10 3- 11 Bond Prices and Yields 115.00 110.00 100.00 95.00 90.00 85.00 Interest Rates, % 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 80.00 0 Bond Price, % 105.00 3- 12 Maturity and Prices 3,000 Bond Price, ($) 2,500 30 yr bond When the interest rate equals the 5% coupon, both bonds sell for face value 2,000 1,500 1,000 3 yr bond 500 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Interest Rates, % 11 12 13 14 Duration Formula Duration 1 PV (C1 ) 2 PV (C2 ) 3 PV (C3 ) T PV (CT ) ... PV PV PV PV duration Modified Duration volatility (%) 1 yield 3- 13 3- 14 Duration Calculation Year Ct PV(Ct) at 5.0% Proportion of Total Value [PV(Ct)/V] 1 2 3 100 100 1100 95.24 90.7 950.22 V = 1136.16 0.084 0.08 0.836 1 Proportion of Total Value Time 0.084 0.16 2.509 Duration= 2.753 years 3- 15 Duration Example (Bond 1) Calculate the duration of our 6 7/8 % bond @ 4.9 % YTM Year CF 1 PV@YTM % of Total PV % x Year 68.75 65.54 .060 0.060 2 68.75 62.48 .058 0.115 3 68.75 59.56 .055 0.165 4 68.75 56.78 .052 0.209 5 68.75 841.39 .775 3.875 1085.74 1.00 Duration 4.424 3- 16 Duration Example (Bond 2) Given a 5 year, 9.0%, $1000 bond, with a 8.5% YTM, what is this bond’s duration? Year CF PV@YTM % of Total PV % x Year 1 90 82.95 .081 0.081 2 90 76.45 .075 0.150 3 90 70.46 .069 0.207 4 90 64.94 .064 0.256 5 1090 724.90 .711 3.555 1019.70 1.00 Duration= 4.249 Bond Price, percent Duration & Bond Prices Interest rate, percent 3- 17 Interest Rates Short- and long-term interest rates do not always move in parallel. Between September 1992 and April 2000 U.S. short-term rates rose sharply while long term rates declined. 3- 18 Term Structure of Interest Rates YTM (r) 1981 1987 & Normal 1976 1 5 10 20 30 Year Spot Rate - The actual interest rate today (t=0) Forward Rate - The interest rate, fixed today, on a loan made in the future at a fixed time. Future Rate - The spot rate that is expected in the future Yield To Maturity (YTM) - The IRR on an interest bearing instrument 3- 19 Maturity 2037 Aug 15 2035 Aug 15 2033 Aug 15 2031 Aug 15 2029 Aug 15 2027 Aug 15 2025 Aug 15 2023 Aug 15 2021 Aug 15 2019 Aug 15 2017 Aug 15 2015 Aug 15 2013 Aug 15 2011 Aug 15 2009 Aug 15 Spot rates (%) Yield Curve 3- 20 U.S. Treasury Strip Spot Rates as of February 2009 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Law of One Price All interest bearing instruments are priced to fit the term structure This is accomplished by modifying the asset price The modified price creates a New Yield, which fits the Term Structure The new yield is called the Yield To Maturity (YTM) 3- 21 Yield to Maturity Example A $1000 treasury bond expires in 5 years. It pays a coupon rate of 10.5%. If the market price of this bond is 107.88, what is the YTM? 3- 22 3- 23 Yield to Maturity Example A $1000 treasury bond expires in 5 years. It pays a coupon rate of 10.5%. If the market price of this bond is 107.88, what is the YTM? C0 -1078.80 105 C1 C2 C3 C4 105 105 105 1105 Calculate IRR = 8.5% C5 Term Structure What Determines the Shape of the Term Structure? Expectations Theory Term Structure & Capital Budgeting CF should be discounted using Term Structure info Since the spot rate incorporates all forward rates, then you should use the spot rate that equals the term of your project. If you believe in other theories take advantage of the arbitrage. 3- 24 Debt & Interest Rates Classical Theory of Interest Rates (Economics) developed by Irving Fisher Nominal Interest Rate = The rate you actually pay when you borrow money Real Interest Rate = The theoretical rate you pay when you borrow money, as determined by supply and demand r Supply Real r Demand $ Qty 3- 25 3- 26 Inflation Rates Annual rates of inflation in the United States from 1900–2008. 25 15 10 5 -5 -10 -15 2008 2002 1996 1990 1984 1978 1972 1966 1960 1954 1948 1942 1936 1930 1924 1918 1912 1906 0 1900 Annual Inflation (%) 20 Sw it Ne zer th lan er d la nd s US Ca A na Sw da ed No en r Au wa st y De ra lia nm ar k UK So Ire G ut lan er h d m Af an ric A y (e ve a r x 19 age 22 / Be 2 3) lg iu m Sp a Fr in an ce Ja pa n Ita ly Average Inflation, % Global Inflation Rates Averages from 1900-2006 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 3- 27 Debt & Interest Rates Nominal r = Real r + expected inflation (approximation) Real r is theoretically somewhat stable Inflation is a large variable Q: Why do we care? A: This theory allows us to understand the Term Structure of Interest Rates. Q: So What? A: The Term Structure tells us the cost of debt. 3- 28 Debt & Interest Rates Actual formula 1 rnominal (1 rreal ) (1 i) 3- 29 1-Jan-09 1-Oct-07 1-Jul-06 1-Apr-05 1-Jan-04 1-Oct-02 1-Jul-01 1-Apr-00 1-Jan-99 1-Oct-97 1-Jul-96 1-Apr-95 16 1-Jan-94 1-Oct-92 1-Jul-91 1-Apr-90 6 1-Jan-89 1-Oct-87 1-Jul-86 1-Apr-85 1-Jan-84 Interest rate (%) UK Bond Yields 3- 30 20 18 10 year nominal interest rate 14 12 10 8 10 year real interest rate 4 2 0 Govt. Bills vs. Inflation (’53-’08) United Kingdom 30.00 25.00 Inflation 20.00 % 15.00 T-Bill Returns 10.00 5.00 0.00 3- 31 Govt. Bills vs. Inflation (’53-’08) United States 16.00 14.00 12.00 Inflation 10.00 % 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 -2.00 T-Bill Returns 3- 32 Govt. Bills vs. Inflation (’53-’08) Germany 12.00 10.00 T-Bill Returns 8.00 % 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 -2.00 -4.00 Inflation 3- 33 Bond Ratings Key to bond ratings. The highest-quality bonds are rated triple A. Bonds rated triple B or above are investment grade. Lower-rated bonds are called high-yield, or junk, bonds. 3- 34 -1 Years 0.67 1.38 1.9 1.18 1.08 1.21 0.75 0.83 -0.01 -0.05 0.25 0.79 4 0.58 0.44 0.42 0.22 0.5 0.22 0.24 0.4 Yield spread between corporate and government bonds, % Yield Spread 3- 35 Yield spreads between corporate and 10-year Treasury bonds. 7 6 5 Spread on Baa bonds 3 2 1 Spread on Aaa bonds 0 Prices and Yields Prices and yields of a sample of corporate bonds, December 2008. Source: Bond transactions reported on FINRA’s TRACE service: http://cxa.marketwatch.com/finra/BondCenter 3- 36 Web Resources Click to access web sites Internet connection required http://cxa.marketwatch.com/finra/BondCenter www.ft.com www.smartmoney.com www.wsj.com www.finpipe.com www.investinginbonds.com www.investorguide.com http://money.cnn.com/markets/bondcenter www.federalreserve.gov www.stls.frb.org www.ustreas.gov 3- 37