Actor/issue analysis of WLAN
MICS Review Meeting
Monte Verita, October 2003
Yves Pigneur
Université de Lausanne
yves.pigneur@unil.ch
(+41 21) 692.3416
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
Agenda
Security
 IP6
1. Introduction
ISSUE
– Research approach in IP10
•
•
•
FRAMEWORK
ASSESSMENT
SCENARIO
ACTOR
USAGE
WLAN
 IP4
2. Actor/issue analysis
– Model &
– Visualization
P2P
 IP5
TEAM
Samuel Bendahan
Dr Jean-Sébastien Monzani
3. WLAN (Wifi) experienceGiovanni Camponovo, MICS phd
– WISP in Switzerland
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
2
Assessing the wireless landscape …
Analysis & visualization
TOOL
Multi-perspective
REPRESENTATION
LANDSCAPE
m-Business
Product
innovation
Infrastructure
Industry
MODEL
Customer
Market
Financial
aspects
Observation & capture
STUDY
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
3
… and its evolution
[Meyer, 2003]
ECONOMIC VALUE ADDED
FOUR-QUARTER MODEL
4. ORGANIZATION
(Decline)
3. BUSINESS
(Maturity)
2. TECHNOLOGY
(Growth)
Mobile ad hoc networks
IP10
MIC
S
1. SCIENCE
(Gestation)
TODAY
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
TIME
4
Multi-technology life cycle
[Meyer, 2003]
ECONOMIC VALUE ADDED
FOUR-QUARTER MODEL
4. ORGANIZATION
(Decline)
3. BUSINESS
(Maturity)
P2P
2. TECHNOLOGY
(Growth)
WLAN
Mobile ad hoc networks
IP10
MIC
S
1. SCIENCE
(Gestation)
TODAY
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
TIME
5
Disruptive technology
[Christensen, 1997]
performance
A disruptive technology is a technology or
innovation
that results in worse product performance, at
least in the near term...
[It] brings to the market a very different
value proposition than had been available
previously...
Products that are based on disruptive
technologies are typically cheaper, simpler,
smaller, and, frequently,
more convenient to use.
[But, they generally] under-perform
established products
Market for old
in mainstream markets.
New replaces old
technology
technology
Market for new
technology
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
time
6
Hype curve of the wireless landscape
Source: [Gartner, 2003]
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
7
No prediction …
• “This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously
considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of
no value to us.”
[West Union internal memo, 1876]
• “I have travelled the length and breadth of this country and walked
with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a
fad that won't last out the year.”
[The editor of management books at Prentice-Hall, 1957]
• “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.”
[Ken Olsen, President and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977]
• More recently, nobody anticipates the SMS phenomena …
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
8
… but scenarios
• “Scenarios are a way of developing alternative futures based on
different combinations of assumptions, facts and trends, […]
Building scenarios will force asking relevant questions and
identify a range of possible choices or events” Caldwell
Telecom scenarios 2010
(1998)
Scenarios for m-commerce 2006
(2002)
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
Wireless Foresight in 2015
(2002)
9
Environment
Assessing a technology environment
uncertain
complex
disruptive
Analysis
Ontology
ISSUE
Multi-perspective
ACTOR
MODEL
USE
Analysis & visualization
Structural analysis
Actor-issue analysis
Five forces analysis
Policy network analysis
Disruption analysis
Adoption analysis
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
TOOL

for assessing environment
and designing scenarios
(present)
(future)
10
Multi-perspective model: Actor, Issue and Usage
Factor & debetable
question that influence the
future
ISSUE
Product
innovation
INFLUENCE
ACTOR
business models
USAGE
Infrastructure
Industry
Supply &
position of
stakeholders
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
Customer
Market
Demand &
adoption by the
users
Financial
aspects
11
Framework for IP10 studies: dialog with other IPs
Ad hoc networks
Monte Verita Workshop
Security
Skills: IT & judicial
Method: elicitation
 IP6
ISSUE
ACTOR
USAGE
business models
P2P (music)
Skills: Marketing & IT
Method: empirical study
Wireless (WLAN)
Skills: IT & management
Method: case studies, DELPHI
 IP5
 IP4
But also
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
China’s Broadband Wireless Industry:
A Scenario Approach
12
MICS seminar
Dialog with IP6: “Security” issue
1. Economic actors observe now:
–
–
–
Flaws happen even in (highly) secure systems
Good reaction to incidents is essential for keeping users’ trust
MNOs play a central role
2. MICS takes care of “preventive” security and assumes:
–
"users can organized themselves independently, with solution based on public key
cryptography [...] Finaly, in self-organized mobile ad hoc networks, security is
mastered by the end users, who will make use of appropriate products provided by
the vendors" [Hubaux, 2001...]
3. Questions to MICS/IP6: What about “post-incident” security in Terminodes?
–
–
–
Solution for detection,
and investigation (trace, …)?
How to replace the operator? Responsibility of vendors (standard)?
Resources for the users?
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
13
Dialog with IP4: “Interoperability” issue
1. Economic actors observe now:
– Interconnection issues (WLAN & GSM, …)
– The integration of a new technology complicates the solutions
– MNOs play a central role, even for less centralized technology (WLAN)
2. MICS takes care of interconnection and assumes:
–
–
"In most cases they [ad hoc networks] will have to be interconnected with other,
more conventional networks such as Internet and cellular networks”
“It illustrates the strong tendency towards an increase of the responsibility of the
end-users [...] Ad hoc networks convey the promise of going a step further: to
entrust the users with the operation of the network” [Hubaux, 2001...]
3. Questions to MICS/IP4: What about interconnection?
– How does this issue influence the research?
– What does “user-driven” operation means, from this perspective?
– How to replace the operator?
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
14
Actor/issue models
[Allas, 2001] [Godet, 2001]
GOALS
• ranks the stakeholders’ positions on many strategic issues,
• assess the convergences and divergences, and
• anticipates coalitions and conflicts.
ISSUE
Influence
Position
Salience
Clout
ACTOR
ROLES
• Prospective: prepare scenarios
• Negotiation
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
USAGE
15
Actor/issue input
[Allas, 2001] [Godet, 2001]
POSITION
– What is the stakeholder’s preferred outcome on this issue?
SALIENCE
– How important is this issue to the stakeholder as compared with all
other issues?
CLOUT
– As compared with other players, how much power does the
stakeholder have to influence the decision on this issue?
INFLUENCE
– Which power has an actor to influence the behavior of another actor?
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
16
Influence model
• Actors influence other actors in order to
use their clout on issues or their influence on other actors
• Direct influence: actors use their influence
– to control part of the influenced actor's clout
• Indirect influence: the influence is used both
– to control the influenced actor's clout and
– to gain control of part of its influence
A3
• Analysis
– Influence & dependence
– Mobilisation
– Convergence & divergence …
A2
A1
A4
I1
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
A2
A1
I2
I3
I1
I2
I3
17
Decision model
MACTOR [Godet, 2001]
MASAM
MIDI a,b  MID a,b  c min MID a,c , MID c,b 
SDII(0) a,b  SDI a,b
I a  b MIDI a,b   MIDI a,a
SDII(N) a,b  SDII(N - 1) a,b  c SDII(N - 1) a,c  SDII(N - 1) c,b   a  b
SDII(N) a,b  c SDII(N - 1) a,c  SDII(N - 1) c,a c  b   a  b
D a  b MIDI b,a   MIDI a,a
Vote i  a SPos a,i  SClo a,i 
 I a - MIDI a,a   

Ia


ra  

  I a    I a  D a  
a


3MAO a,i  2MAO a,i  ra
Diverg i
Mob a i 3MAO a,i
Powera
Ag i  a 3MAO a,i 3MAO a,i  0
b,i
c
c,i
a,b - Min a,b a,b 

Alliance



With a,b  i SPos a,b - SPos b,i -   SSal a,i  SSal b,i
3DAA a, b 
1
 i 3MAO a,i  3MAO b,i  3MAO a,i  3MAO b,i  0
2
k
a, b
i
a,i

1
 i 3MAO a,i  3MAO b,i  3MAO a,i  3MAO b,i  0
2
k
i

3CAA a, b 


a,i
a
TClo a,i  b SDII(N) a,b  SClo b,i 
Disag i  a 3MAO a,i 3MAO a,i  0

3EQi  1 - 



  SPos - InfVote  SSal 
  SDII(N)  SClo   SSal 
InfVote i a SPos a,i  b SDII(N) a,b  SClo b,i 
a, b

Max a,b a,b  - Min a,b a,b 





3CAAi, k  3DAAi, k 

3CAAi, k  3DAAi, k 
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
18
Analysis and visualization system
Multi-Actor Strategic Analysis Model
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
19
WLAN (wifi) issues
Ad hoc networks
0
Wireless
Device-centric
Mobility
Device
Wild area
Free net
Regulation
Stationary
notebook
Few hotspots
Commercial
only
Tight
Licensing
Nomadic
PDA
Many hotspots
roaming
coexistence
Status quo
Mobile
Phone
Ubiquitous
Free networks
Loose
WLAN & GSM
WLAN & GSM
mainly
neighborhood LAN
Interconnection
Auto-organization
1
2
3
4
Figure 5: Issues' icons
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
20
WLAN (wifi) actors
• Mobile network operators (MNOs)
• Internet service providers (ISPs)
• Venues
– Airports, hotels, cafes…
• Communities
– and free networks (Myotis)
• Informatics-related companies
– Hardware, software, network equipment, …
• Telephony-related companies
– Device manufacturer, equipment, …
• Regulator
Figure 4: Actors' icons
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
21
Position, salience & clout
•
Interviews of actors
–
•
Case studies (WISP)
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
•
CHUV
Zurich Airport
Swisscom Mobile
Sunrise TDC
Monzoon
Netair
Myotis
…
DELPHI approach
–
–
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
UniSG & Unil
Matrices by experts
Consensus in meeting
22
Influence analysis
• Influence and relationship between actors
– Dominancy , control, power, auto-control …
auto-determination
influence by the others
relative power
MNOs
powerful
Venues under
control
Figure 0: Influence graph
The operator can use its
influence on the regulator
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
Regulator is a
conciliator …
23
Issue analysis and dissatisfaction
• Expected outcome of issues and dissatisfaction of actors
– Importance of issue
– (in-)stability
issues
input scale
Dissatisfied actors
want to increase
Midway
outcome
satisfaction
expected
Figure 0: Issue dissatisfaction chart
Slight divergence between
informatics & telecoms
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
Same for regulation
MNOs & ISPs against
communities for free network
24
Actor analysis and power repartition
• Relative importance of issues
• Power repartition and salience of actors over issues
relative clout
of actors
salience of actors
(darker)
relative
importance
of issues
Telecom firms
not salient
MNOs allies?
free networks
HOT TOPIC
many salient actors
Figure 0: Power repartition graph
MNOs & ISPs control
40% of the clout
NAPSTE
R
Communities control
35% of the clout
auto-organization
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
25
Alliance analysis & proximity map
• Relative distance between actors
2 scenarios?
– Based on an “alliance coefficient”
Regulator and venues;
potential allies for others
MOBILITY
MNOs & telecom for
mobile use
FREE ACCESS
MNOs & ISPs against
communities for free access
ISPs, info & communities
for stationary use
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
26
Overall interpretation
WHAT IF
ISSUE ANALYSIS
MNOs & ISPs against communities
for free network
Which
allies?
auto-organization
NEGOTIATION
MNOs not salient on device
but Telecom & Informatics salient;
Exchange of position on free access Vs. device?
Figure 0: Issue dissatisfaction chart
POWER RAPARTITION
MNOs nearer Telecom
than Informatics
Figure 0: Power repartition graph
What
reaction?
Communities anticipate,
look for allies:
Informatics, Venues …
PROXIMITY MAP
INFLUENCE ANALYSIS
Figure 0: Influence graph
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
27
Results
• An explorative study on the impact of ad hoc networks on actors,
in the field of ubiquitous computing
(best paper in m-business’2003 conference)
• An empirical investigation of emerging usages and business models for
WISP in Switzerland, based on structured interviews
 A visual decision model for assessing a technological environment, its
actors, and its issues, applied to the WLAN battlefield
• An empirical and prospective study of the m-business arena in China,
based on structured interviews
Prof. JC Usunier:
• A large empirical survey for measuring the attitude of P2P users
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
28
Next …
FRAMEWORK
SCENARIOs
Mobile
Klondike
ISSUE
Intimate
Seller
ACTOR
INFLUENCE
Community
Lifestyle
Brand
Bureau
Super
Operator
USAGE
Professional
Users
Trusted
Guide
ASSESSMENT: same (2nd iteration) plus …
LBS
m-payment
Sensor or RFID
 IP8
 IP4/6
 IP7/11
logistics/transportation?
Mobile ad hoc networks
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
29
Questions …
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
30
Disruptive analysis
FRAMEWORK:
Source: [Raffi, 2002]
Can the insurgent gain a foothold, usually
in the market below the main one?
Foothold
market entry
yes
Does the insurgent face high barriers to
entering the main market?
Main
market entry
yes
Customer
attraction
How much value can the insurgent offer
relative to the incumbent?
yes
Customer
switching
How easily can customers switch from the
incumbent to the insurgent?
yes
Incumbent
retaliation
Does the incumbent have high barriers to
retaliating against the insurgent?
unsuccessful
significant
Disruption
succeeds
Incumbent
displacement
minimal
Disruption
fails
The National Centres of Competence in Research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation
on behalf of the Federal Authorities
Does the innovation displace incumbent
products and revenues?
31