Center for Business and Economic Research
Not Seasonally
Adjusted
Seasonally
Adjusted
Civilian Labor Force
Percent Change from Year Ago Level
Absolute Change from Year Ago Level
2,108,602
-0.7%
-14,711
2,109,059
-0.4%
-8,566
Employed
Percent Change from Year Ago Level
Absolute Change from Year Ago Level
1,993,206
-0.4%
-7,870
1,983,170
-0.1%
-2,616
Unemployed
Percent Change from Year Ago Level
Absolute Change from Year Ago Level
115,396
-5.6%
-6,841
125,889
-4.5%
-5,950
Alabama Unemployment Rate
Alabama Unemployment Rate (Nov. 2013)
U.S. Unemployment Rate
U.S. Unemployment Rate (Nov. 2013)
5.5%
5.8%
5.5%
6.6%
6.0%
6.2%
5.8%
7.0%
Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division.
2
Total Nonagricultural
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Nondurable Goods Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State Government
Local Government
November 2012 to
November 2013
15,900
-500
-2,400
4,200
3,700
500
3,400
1,700
600
1,100
0
1,000
-500
4,000
8,300
-200
-1,400
-2,000
1,900
-1,300
November 2013 to
November 2014
33,700
100
4,700
7,400
6,400
1,000
-1,800
-1,100
-1,300
600
0
-1,700
11,100
2,000
8,900
1,700
1,300
-800
1,400
700
Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division.
3
Total Nonagricultural
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Nondurable Goods Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State Government
Local Government
January
2011
November
2014
Change
1,839,400
12,100
77,200
233,200
143,500
89,700
358,800
70,900
221,500
66,400
23,500
91,100
208,200
213,200
159,500
78,400
384,200
57,200
110,400
216,600
1,954,400
12,200
82,300
258,000
166,700
91,300
376,500
73,500
231,300
71,700
22,400
93,300
230,400
227,600
189,900
80,800
381,000
53,000
112,400
215,600
115,000
100
5,100
24,800
23,200
1,600
17,700
2,600
9,800
5,300
-1,100
2,200
22,200
14,400
30,400
2,400
-3,200
-4,200
2,000
-1,000
Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division.
4
2 100
12
2 000
10
1 900
8
1 800
6
1 700
4
1 600
2
1 500
0
Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Employment
Employment (Thousands), Unemployment Rate (Percent), 1990-2014
Source: Alabama Department of Labor.
5
102
1980
1981
1990
2001
2007
100
98
96
94
92
90
1
5
9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81
Number of months
6
69
67
United States
65
63
Alabama
61
59
57
55
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
7
100%
90%
80%
22,69
39,08
All Other
70%
19,85
Government
60%
50%
40%
30%
16,80
9,43
Leisure and
Hospitality
2,86
11,65
Education and
Healthcare Service
11,49
Professional and
Business Services
7,40
9,18
Retail Trade
20%
10%
6,91
11,81
17,77
Manufacturing
13,09
0%
1
Share of Alabama
GDP
2 Employment
Share of Alabama Non-farm
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
8
• 4th in U.S. in vehicle exports
• 4 OEMs in the state (Original Equipment Manufacturers)
• 5th in U.S. in vehicles manufactured
• Alabama’s three assembly plants produced 918,172
vehicles in 2013 and the number is expected to climb in
the coming years
• $6.5 billion in vehicles shipped to 99 countries in 2013
• Since 2011, Alabama has attracted more than 200 autorelated projects involving $4 billion in investment and
17,000 new jobs
Source: Economic Development Partnership of Alabama (EDPA) and Alabama Department of Commerce.
9
$5 000
$4 997
All
Merchandise
$3 991
$4 000
Transportation
Equipment
Chemicals
$3 000
$2 000
$1 000
Primary Metal
Manufacturing
$1 731
$817
$631
$517
$236
$0
U.S.
$121
$301 $286
Minerals and
Ores
Alabama
Source: International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Census Bureau.
10
Biosciencerelated
distribution,
34% (4,353)
Research,
testing &
med. labs,
30% (3,844)
Drugs &
pharmaceuticals,
10% (1,284)
Ag. feedstock &
chemicals, 13%
(1,651)
Med. devices & equip.,
13% (1,662)
Note: Number of employees in parenthesis.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data from Batelle/BIO report.
11
$73 583
Drugs & pharmaceuticals
$72 338
Ag. feedstock & chemicals
Bioscience-related distr.
$66 255
Medical devices & equip.
$55 958
Research, test. & med. labs
$46 939
Bioscience industries average
$65 727
All private sector industries
$41 074
$0
$40 000
$80 000
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data from Batelle/BIO report.
12
Percent Change
From
Year Ago
Change in Revenue
from Year
Ago Level
Tax
Total Collection
Total
$1,558,742,224
9.1%
$129,308,953
Income (Individual)
$587,479,221
8.4%
$45,681,846
Sales
$347,809,038
2.6%
$8,719,665
Source: Alabama Department of Revenue.
13
Annual Percent Change
6
4
Alabama
GDP
2
0
-2
Nonfarm
Employment
-4
-6
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Alabama Department of Labor, and
Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.
14
Annual Percent Change
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Total
-20
2000
Nondurable Goods
2004
2008
Durable Goods
2012
2016
Source: Alabama Department of Labor and Center for Business and Economic Research,
The University of Alabama
15
This Alabama GDP and employment forecast
summary is the CBER December 2014 forecast
Preliminary 2015 forecast also included below
Probability: Forecast (60 Percent) and Range (90 percent)
(Percent change)
Real GDP
2012
2013
2014
2015
2.3
2.0
2.0
2.3
1.0 to 2.5
2.0 to 3.5
0.7
1.8
0.3 to 1.7
0.8 to 2.0
1.3
2.4
range
Employment
0.8
1.0
range
Total Tax Receipts, FY
range
3.8
4.0
1.5 to 4.0
16
100
90
80
70
Index
60
50
45,4 47,7
52,9 51,9 51,2
55,6 55,5 54,2 57,4
40
30
20
10
0
Q1
Q2 Q3
2013
Q4
Q1
Q2 Q3
2014
Q4
Q1
2015
17
60
57.4
56.4
55
Alabama
50
45
United
States
40
35
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012
2013
2014
2015
18
65
60
Sales
60.6
57.8
55
50
Profits
45
40
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012
2013
2014
2015
19
58
56
54
Hiring
56.3
55.9
52
50
48
46
44
Capital Expenditures
42
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2012
2013
2014
2015
20
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1 Q1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
21
100%
Non-Metro Areas
90%
22,31
23,02
5,16
5,07
70%
8,14
8,84
60%
8,85
50%
11,45
40%
1,41
2,26
2,45
2,66
80%
Montgomery
9,09
Huntsville
11,22
1,92
2,91
2,98
2,85
Florence-Muscle Shoals
Dothan
Decatur
31,12
26,65
10%
0%
Mobile
Gadsden
30%
20%
Tuscaloosa
Birmingham-Hoover
Auburn-Opelika
2,20
1,99
GDP
3,03
2,43
Anniston-Oxford-Jacksonville
Employment
Source: Alabama Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau for Economic Analysis.
22
All Industry Total
(Millions of chained 2009 dollars)
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford
Auburn-Opelika
Birmingham-Hoover
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley
Decatur
Dothan
Florence-Muscle Shoals
Gadsden
Huntsville
Mobile
Montgomery
Tuscaloosa
2013
180,727
3,518
4,293
55,913
5,909
5,063
4,583
4,255
2,518
21,645
17,085
15,489
9,437
Percent Change
2004 to
2012 to
2013
2013
7.5
0.8
-3.1
-3.0
28.9
3.4
3.0
-0.8
23.3
4.1
0.5
0.6
-1.4
1.7
12.1
3.9
-5.0
-3.1
21.9
0.6
18.2
2.9
1.2
0.3
20.5
0.4
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
23
Metro Area
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford
Auburn-Opelika
Birmingham-Hoover
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley
Decatur
Dothan
Florence-Muscle Shoals
Gadsden
Huntsville
Mobile
Montgomery
Tuscaloosa
Total Merchandise
Exports
$19.3 billion
$192.7 million
$395.4 million
$1.9 billion
$515.3 million
$673.1 million
$374.7 million
$229.7 million
$54.6 million
$1.5 billion
$1.5 billion
$1.7 billion
NA
Source: International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.
24
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford
Auburn-Opelika
Birmingham-Hoover
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley
Decatur
Dothan
Florence-Muscle Shoals
Gadsden
Huntsville
Mobile
Montgomery
Tuscaloosa
2013
100.0
1.1
2.4
11.1
3.1
4.0
2.2
1.4
0.3
9.0
9.2
9.9
NA
2012
100.0
1.2
2.6
11.4
NA
3.8
1.6
0.8
0.2
8.8
11.2
10.4
NA
Source: International Trade Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce.
25
United States
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford
5,5
7,0
5,8
6,3
6,5
Mobile
4,6
4,8
5,2
5,5
5,2
5,7
5,8
6,1
5,9
6,1
6,4
6,1
5,7
6,2
5,1
5,5
6,7
Montgomery
6,1
6,5
Auburn-Opelika
Birmingham-Hoover
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley
Decatur
Dothan
Florence-Muscle Shoals
Gadsden
Huntsville
Tuscaloosa
October 2014
October 2013
7,5
7,2
5,4
5,8
Source: Alabama Department of Labor.
26
United States
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford
Auburn-Opelika
Birmingham-Hoover
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley
Decatur
Dothan
Florence-Muscle Shoals
Gadsden
Huntsville
Mobile
Montgomery
Tuscaloosa
$63 900
$54 100
$51 600
$59 700
$61 000
$68 800
$53 500
$51 700
$52 100
$46 900
$69 700
$53 900
$59 600
$54 400
Note: Chilton and Walker counties are not included in the estimate for the BirminghamHoover metro, Henry County is not included in the Dothan, and Pickens County
in the Tuscaloosa metro estimate.
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Economic Affairs,
Economic and Market Analysis Division.
27
United States
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford
Auburn-Opelika
Birmingham-Hoover
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley
Decatur
Dothan
Florence-Muscle Shoals
Gadsden
Huntsville
Mobile
Montgomery
Tuscaloosa
High school or higher, Percent
29,6
23,5
15,0
37,9
28,6
29,0
18,9
18,3
17,0
16,2
36,5
22,3
25,9
24,7
86,6
84,5
80,3
89,5
87,0
90,6
80,8
84,1
83,4
81,9
88,8
85,8
85,7
86,7
Bachelor's degree or higher, Percent
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Community Survey 1-year estimates.
28
7/1/2013
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford
Auburn-Opelika
Birmingham-Hoover
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley
Decatur
Dothan
Florence-Muscle Shoals
Gadsden
Huntsville
Mobile
Montgomery
Tuscaloosa
4,833,722
116,736
150,933
1,140,300
195,540
153,374
147,691
147,317
103,931
435,737
414,079
373,510
235,628
7/1/2010 to 7/1/2013
Number
Percent
Change
Change
48,152
-1,712
10,083
11,204
12,317
-488
1,815
88
-567
16,306
789
-1,698
5,154
1.0
-1.4
7.2
1.0
6.7
-0.3
1.2
0.1
-0.5
3.9
0.2
-0.5
2.2
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
29
Nonfarm Employment
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford
Auburn-Opelika
Birmingham-Hoover
Decatur
Dothan
Florence-Muscle Shoals
Gadsden*
Huntsville*
Mobile*
Montgomery
Tuscaloosa
Net Jobs in Metropolitan Areas
Net Jobs in Nonmetro Counties
2007 or 2008
Peak Year
2,005,700
53,400
54,800
533,400
58,600
63,100
57,300
38,000
214,300
184,600
178,000
98,500
Job Loss to 2014
Number
Percent
51,300
2.56%
7,900
14.79%
-6,100
-11.13%
17,300
3.24%
4,400
7.51%
5,400
8.56%
-100
-0.17%
700
1.84%
-3,900
-1.82%
11,200
6.07%
8,300
4.66%
-3,600
-3.65%
41,500
9,800
* Gadsden, Huntsville and Mobile employment peaked in 2008; all others saw peaks in 2007.
Note: Nonfarm employment (jobs) is by place of work.
Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
30
Anniston-Oxford
Auburn-Opelika
Birmingham-Hoover
Daphne-Fairhope-Foley
Decatur
Dothan
Florence-Muscle Shoals
Gadsden
Huntsville
Mobile
Montgomery
Tuscaloosa
Nonfarm Employment
Real GDP
Forecast, Percent Forecast, Percent
0.3
1.3
2.5
3.7
1.0
1.5
1.2
3.0
0.4
1.0
1.4
1.8
1.0
3.5
1.1
1.4
2.0
3.8
1.2
3.2
0.9
1.4
2.2
3.8
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Alabama Department of Labor, and Center for
Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama, December 2014.
31
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, ABCI Panelists’ Poll, Nov. 2014.
1
Education/Training
(Quality of education; workforce development)
2
Government
(Federal, state & local government; tax reform; prison
reform; state constitution)
3/4
Economy/Businesses
(Economic & business growth; small businesses)
3/4
Jobs
(Job growth; better paying jobs)
5
Healthcare
(Healthcare cost; Affordable Healthcare Act; Medicaid,
Medicare)
6
Infrastructure
(Infrastructure; roads and bridges)
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, ABCI Panelists’ Poll, Nov. 2014.
32
1
Company Finances
& Development
(Profitability; business costs; availability of credit; business
growth; competition; concern about customers)
2
Government
(Federal, state & local government; taxation; regulations;
uncertainty)
3
Workforce
(Lack of skilled workers; retaining qualified employees)
4
Economy
(Economic recovery & growth; consumer spending)
5
Healthcare
(Healthcare cost; Affordable Healthcare Act)
Note: No issues companies are facing was currently mentioned by 1.0% of respondents.
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, ABCI Panelists’ Poll, Nov. 2014.
33
1930
44
1940
45
1950
47
1960
46
1970
47
1980
46
1990
40
2000
43
2009
41
2010
41
2011
41
2012
41
2013
42
Source: Estimates
based on Bureau of
Economic Analysis data.
34
2013: U.S. $44,543
Alabama $36,501
90
80
70
60
50
40
1929: U.S. $697
Alabama $318
30
1929
1938
1947
1956
1965
1974
1983
1992
2001
2010
35
90
80
70
2013: U.S. $44,543
Alabama $36,501
60
50
40
1929: U.S. $697
Alabama $318
30
1929
1938
1947
1956
1965
1974
1983
1992
2001
2010
36
Economy = People + Institutions + Property = Private & Public Sectors
Economic Development = Higher or better quality of life
Human Capital Development = Improved education and healthcare
Institutional Development = Better government, companies, culture
Physical Capital Development = Better infrastructure and environment
There is no economic development without education (a public good)
*** Informal education is also important
Universities (Largely Public Good)
Vocational and Community Colleges (Mostly Public Good)
Pre-Kindergarten to High School (Pure Public Good)
Development Policies must be Optimal = Efficient, Fair, Flexible, Sustainable
36
Labor force participation (2012): Alabama 57.3% United States 63.7%
Population Growth
Alabama
United States
1990-2000
10.1%
13.2%
2000-2010
7.5%
9.7%
2010-2013
1.1%
2.4%
Educational Attainment (Age 25 and over population)
2008-2012 (2012)
Alabama
United States
High school graduates
82.6% (84.0%)
85.7% (86.4%)
Bachelor’s or higher degree
22.3% (23.3%)
28.5% (29.1%)
37
Center for Business and Economic Research
Culverhouse College of Commerce
The University of Alabama
Box 870221
Tuscaloosa, Alabama 35487-0221
205.348.6191
http://cber.cba.ua.edu
Serving Alabama Since 1930
39