Demographic Trends
Affecting Cities
Population Change
Outline
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Trends
Implications for cities
Checklist for cities
Information resources
Trends
 Minnesota continues to grow
 1 million more people by 2030; 2
million more by 2060
 Midwest neighbors and other cold
weather states seeing population
declines
Trends
Minnesota population growth through 2060
Projected Population (Millions)
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.5
6.5
7.1
4.9
5.0
4.0
5.9
6.3
6.8
3.8
4.1
4.4
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1970 1980 1990
State Demographer projection
2000 2010 2020 2030
2040 2050 2060
Trends
 2000-2005 population growth
 7 of 13 metro counties in fastest 100 growing
of the nation
 40% of state’s population lives in metro
suburbs; 57% of 2000-05 growth
 34% of state’s population lives in greater MN;
only 13% of 2000-05 growth
Trends
Suburbs and collar counties account for less than half
of population but 77% of growth
100%
13.2%
90%
80%
7.1%
34.0%
70%
60%
20.8%
6.6%
5.4%
50%
40%
30%
39.4%
57.3%
20%
10%
14.6%
1.6%
0%
Share of 2005
Population
Share of Change 200005
Met Council and State Demographer estimates.
Rest of State
Six Regional Centers
Collar
Suburbs
Core Cities
Trends
 Regional trends projected through 2030:
 Twin Cities will grow by 800,000
 32% more people will live in central lakes
region—mostly older adults
 Central lakes region only region to see
significant growth in residents under 19
 North and northwest regions will grow by
14%, reversing long trend of no growth
 In south and southwest regions, the only
population growth will be among residents
over 65
Implications for Cities
 Cities with no growth or population
loss
 School closures
 Business closures; job losses
 Declining tax base
 Less investment in infrastructure
 No new services
 Pressure to find new ways to deliver services
 Difficulty filling elected and appointed
positions
Implications for Cities
 Cities expecting growth:
 New demand for services and
infrastructure
 New kinds of service needs depending
on changing population (e.g. more
older residents, more ethnic diversity)
 Finding fair distribution of burden for
paying for growth among new and old
residents
Implications for Cities
 Density issues
 Trends of people moving to low-density areas
(e.g. lakes areas)
 Cost of service delivery can be higher in lowdensity areas
 Urban-style development in formerly lowdensity areas increases pressure for
expanding infrastructure and services
Implications for Cities
 City employment
 City employment affected by whether region
is stable, growing, or shrinking in population
 Declining areas will face difficulties filling
vacancies
 Growing cities will face competition from
private sector to find new employees
 Aging and ethnic diversity trend complicate
employment issues
Checklist for Cities
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What is role of city in region
What are factors in people’s location
decisions
How do we enter partnerships with
other entities to provide services
Checklist for Cities
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What are population projections
How will role of city affect growth trend
Can we change the future
How will need and demand for services
change
Can we partner with other entities to meet
those demands
What are future housing needs; what type
of housing will residents want
Checklist for Cities
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What will be impact on property values
and tax base
How does size and composition of our
workforce compare to future needs
What is retirement pattern of current
workers
What is our workforce plan to recruit and
retain staff
Resources
 Office of State Demographer
 www.demography.state.mn.us
 League of Minnesota Cities
 www.lmc.org