Energy, Environment, and Industrial Development Frederick H. Abernathy Michael B. McElroy Lecture 9 March 6, 2006 2 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM 3 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM 4 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM Figure 3.1 The radiation budget of Earth’s surface-atmosphere system. Source: Peixoto and Oort 1992 5 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM Classification of terrestrial ecosystems 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Tundra. No trees, grasses, mosses, lichens. Low rainfall, low temperatures Taiga or boreal forests. Dominated by conifers – spruces, firs, larches, pines. Trees less than 30m high. Covers much of Canada and Northern Eurasia Temperate deciduous forests. Maples, beeches, oak. Source of hardwood. China, Japan, western Europe, United States, southern Canada Temperate rain forests. Moderate temperatures and high precipitation. Redwoods, Douglas firs, western cedars. Western US, western New Zealand Temperate woodlands. Temperature similar to deciduous forests but drier. New England to Georgia. Parts of Caribbean Temperate shrub lands. Dry, temperate, low stature, chaparral 6 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM Classification of terrestrial ecosystems 7. Temperate grasslands. Regions too dry for forests. North American prairies, steppes of Eurasia, pampas of Argentina. Fire and grazing necessary for persistence of grasses 8. Tropical rain forests. High average temperature relatively constant over year. High, frequent, rainfall. Amazon basin, Indonesia, Malaysia. 9. Tropical seasonal forests and savannas. High relatively constant average temperature. Abundant, but seasonal, rainfall. Savannas dominate at lower rainfall. 10. Deserts. Rainfall < 0.5m/year 7 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/glcc/gifs.asp 8 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/glcc/gifs.asp 9 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM Spring, Feb. 21-Apr. 21, 2001 Fall, Aug 21-Oct. 21, 2000 Summer, May 21-Jun. 21, 2000 Winter, Nov 21- Jan. 21, 2001 http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/EVI_LAI_FPAR/ © Science A 52 FHA + MBM 10 11 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM 12 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM Perfectly dry wood (0% moisture) can provide as much as 8660 BTU/lb Live wood contains a large amount of H2O. Even when well seasoned, the moisture content is significant ~ 20% Significant heat is expended to evaporate the water content of the wood and to raise its temperature to the typical stack gas temperature (~ 400 F). Energy required to evaporate 1 lb of water = 1050 BTU A realistic estimate of the energy available from well seasoned wood is about 6050 BTU/lb or 13,367 BTU/kg Approximately half of the wood is represented by carbon. Thus, energy available is 12,100 BTU (lb C)-1 or 26,734 BTU (kgC )-1 = 2.67x104 13 BTU (kgC )-1 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM The photosynthetic process may be represented as Light + CO2 + H2O CH2O + O2 Respiration (or decay) describes the reverse process CH2O + O2 CO2 + H2O + energy Gross uptake of C by photosynthesis at Harvard Forest today amounts to about 11 tons C ha-1 yr-1. 1 hectare (ha) = 2.47 acres Most of the carbon taken up is respired. Only about 25% is converted to organic matter, half of which is above ground, half below. This constitutes the net uptake. Carbon available for sustainable harvest: 1 1 11 tons C ha-1 yr-1 = 1.4 tons C ha-1 yr-1 2 4 14 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM Abernathy estimated that in 1800 people used about 5.5 cords of wood per person per year. Energy content of a cord he took as 20x106 BTU Implies energy use per person per year of 5.5 x 20 x106 BTU = 110 x106 BTU Carbon required to supply this energy 110 x10 6 BTU 1.1x10 8 kgC 4.1x10 3 kgC 1 4 26734 BTU (kgC) 2.67 x10 Each person required 4.1 metric tons of C per year, equivalent to about 8 metric tons of dry wood or more than 15 tons of wood harvest To apply needed carbon by sustainable harvest each person would need 4.1ton C yr 1 person 1 2.93ha person -1 7.25 acres person -1 1 1 1.4ton C ha yr © Science A 52 FHA + MBM 15 Approximately 11% of the total global land area is devoted to crops: about 15x106 km2 = 1.5x109 ha If all of this land were devoted to sustainable forestry with yields quoted here, the carbon yield would amount to 2.1x109 tons C yr-1 At a consumption rate of 4.1 tons C (person)-1 yr-1, this could supply 512 million people 16 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM There are indications that mid-latitudes of the N. hemisphere are currently accumulating carbon at a rate of about 2x109 tons C yr-1 Taking the 1800 per capita demand as 4.1 tons C yr-1, it follows that this would be sufficient to supply (2/4.1) x 109 people or 487 million people at the 1800 consumption rate. Current fossil fuel use is about 6x109 tons C yr-1 or about 1 ton C/person US consumption per capita is about 4 ton C yr-1 (person)-1 17 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM Nutritional energy requirement for a typical human 40 kcal day-1 (kg of body wt)-1 Energy requirement per unit of body mass for an insect is about 10x higher than for a human or about 20x higher for a small bird Nutritional energy requirement for a typical 70 kg adult human 70 x 40 kcal day-1 = 2.8x103 kcal day-1; 1 kcal = 4 BTU Nutritional energy requirement for a typical 70 kg adult 1.1x104 BTU day-1 1.1x104 x 3.65x102 BTU yr-1 = 4x106 BTU yr-1. Allowing for domestic animal feed ~ 15 x106 BTU yr-1 This compares with the energy demand for wood per person per year in 1800 of 110x106 BTU Energy/food factor = 28 or ~ 7 allowing for 18 animals © Science A 52 FHA + MBM 19 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM Estimate for carbon incorporated globally in trees 3x109 tons C yr-1 How many people could this support at utilization rate in 1800 New England? About 0.7 billion (3x109/4.1) Current global consumption of carbon in fossil fuel is about 6x109 ton C/yr, roughly twice the carbon potentially available from trees But, large amount of energy required to harvest the trees. Plus transportation and seasoning 20 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM What is the better economic choice, to grow food or timber? Timber is sold in units of board feet 1 board foot = 1 foot x 12 inches x 1 inch Assuming a density of 1 g cm-3, the mass of a board food is about 0.25 kg Price for softwood: $35~$305/1000 board feet; price for hardwood: $230~$580/1000 board feet Take $300/1000 board feet as average timber worth $1200/metric ton Rice costs $0.48/lb $1.10/kg $1100/metric ton It would appear that wood and food are comparable as investments! 21 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM Wood in English History A Forest Journey, John Perlin, Harvard Univ. Press, 1991 England was industrially relatively backward in early 1500s. Henry VII built only four ships for the Royal Navy during his reign (14851509) Imported salt, iron, dyes, glass and arms from continent Change in 1530s. Concern about Spanish/French intention to depose Henry VIII (1509- 1547) Development of arms industry in Sussex. England is forefront of arms race to 1550 To produce 1 ton of bar iron required 48 cords of wood. Beginning of English deforestation © Science A 52 FHA + MBM 22 Wood in English History A Forest Journey, John Perlin, Harvard Univ. Press, 1991 Prior to Elizabeth I, England’s ships were mostly made elsewhere or were hired. Elizabeth took steps to promote domestic industry. Subsidies for large ships, fishing, policies on wine importation To build a large warship took 2000 oaks which had to be more than 100 years old. Increased wood demands for iron, copper, glass, construction. Wood becomes scarce. James I prescribes permissible uses of timber (houses, glass etc) English reach to Ireland for new sources of wood Great fire of London, 1666 23 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM Wood in English History A Forest Journey, John Perlin, Harvard Univ. Press, 1991 John Houghton proposed a strategic timber reserve: “in times of peace, enough might be laid up for war and I believe that once a tenyear store was gotten, we never need fear the want of timber…when we are so prepared, we need care for nobody” Growth in use of wood for rail carriages, mining, canal building, mills, water wheels Abraham Darby develops method to use coked coal rather than charcoal for metal smelting. First coal-fired iron furnace in 1754 England moves from wood to coal age 24 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM Diamond’s view of factors that can lead to the collapse of a society Collapse, Jared Diamond, 2005, Viking Penguin, member of Penguin Group 1. Damage people inadvertently inflict on their environment 2. Climate change 3. Hostile neighbors 4. Decreased support by friendly neighbors 5. Society’s response to problems 25 © Science A 52 FHA + MBM