Norway2030 - EVA-Forum Sept. 2003
Foresight as a tool for
development within
the Ministry for Labour and
Government Administration
- experiences from
Norway2030
Trondheim,
11th of September 2003
Erik F. Øverland
Norway2030 - EVA-Forum Sept. 2003
From Forecasts to Scenarios
What was Norway2030?
Objectives, process and organization
Outcomes and learnings
products
methodology and tools
Key Lessons
process and organisation
some thematic issues
Moving beyond Forecasts
What is Foresight?
Foresight is the overall concept for most
of the tools, practices and thinking oriented
towards the future.
Foresight represents a different approach than
forecasts and prognoses
•Forecast = simple mechanical
“predictions”
•Prognoses = weight upon probability
Moving beyond Forecasts
Definition (a try):
Foresight is a systematic, participatory,
future intelligence gathering and
medium-to-long term vision building
process aimed at present-day decisions
and mobilizing joint actions (FOREN
2003)
Moving beyond Forecasts
What kind of foresight tools do we got?
Delphi and survey-methods
Scenario methodology
(expert, dialogue, learning, participative)
Backcasting
Panels
Wild Cards
Technology foresight/assessment
Vision building
Games and other methods
Scenarios are aimed at demonstrating a multitude
of possible futures
Moving beyond Forecasts
TIME PERSPECTIVISM
- a precondition for Ex ante Evaluation
Futures
Pasts
Presents
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 5
ex-
Figur 4. Time perspectivism in perspectivist
scenariobuilding (Backcasting as a tool for
ante evaluation)
Moving beyond Forecasts
If it is important to be conscious about which
decisions the evaluations are made for, and what
kind of consequences the evaluations may have,
foresight methodology might be a helpful tool.
To develop a proper tools for making innovation
policy real you need to go beyond Forecasts and
Prognoses
Orientation towards several possible Futures
through foresight ie. scenario methodology is to
recommend
Experiences from Norway2030 may contribute to
a such agenda
What was Norway2030?
A scenario project initiated by the Royal Ministry
of Government Administration in 1998
Finished 31th of December 2000
15 of 16 Ministries participated
More than 60 civil servants participated in
addition to external participants from research
institutes, media and work life
Comprehensive experimentation with scenario
tools and -methodologies
Orientation towards public sector
Gained an excellence status in an internat.
benchmark by the Cabinet Office in UK 2001
What was Norway2030?
Primary objective:
The process intend to strengthen the public
administration’s preparedness for readjustment and development in relation to longterm challenges,
and
to improve the basis for the strategic
planning of the Ministries
What was Norway2030?
Secondary objectives:
to provide five future views of public sector
to develop a larger common understanding
of future challenges within the ministries
through active involvement being a major
instrument for public management reform
the scenarios being reference for work in
other parts of the public administration
What was Norway2030?
Organization:
Steering group
Reference group
Working groups
Project group
Two phases 1) scenariolearning with broad
participation
2) scenariostudy in a smaller group
Phase 1
Nov.98
Dec.99
Phase 2
Jan.00
Dec.00
What was Norway2030?
Phase 1:
scenariolearning through scenariobuilding with 4
working groups through 10 seminars
- discussion of concepts
- discussion of thematic issues
- thematic ’situational diagnosis’
- open process for identifying actors&factors
- assessment and ranking of A&Fs
- development of mini-scenarios
- construction of partial scenarios through
making creative combinations of miniscenarios
Result: first partial report with 4x5=20 partial
scenarios
Phase 1
Nov.98
Dec.99
What was Norway2030?
Phase 2:
scenariostudy through a minor group - writing the
book
- discussion of perspectives and main content
- structuring the scenarios
- how to be surprising?
- reflecting on method&tools
- writing the chapters of the book
- open review process with more than 40 external
”experts”
- making presentations and doing information work
Result: a monography
Phase 2
Jan.00
Dec.00
What was Norway2030?
Phase 2:
scenariostudy through a minor group - writing the
book
- discussion of perspectives and main content
- structuring the scenarios
- how to be surprising?
- reflecting on method&tools
- writing the chapters of the book
- open review process with more than 40 external
”experts”
- making presentations and doing information work
Result: a monography
Phase 2
Jan.00
Dec.00
The structure of the publication
PASTS
Process and methodology chapter
PRESENTS
Perspectives on the contemporary society
What is public sector today?
In what kind of landscape do we exist?
FUTURES
The five main scenarios
The wild Card
PRACTICES
From scenarios to politics
What is the possible use of the scenarios?
Perspectivist scenariobuilding in practice
How did we do it?
What was Norway2030?
The structure of the scenarios:
Situational scenario. The society in Norway 2030
Here is the surprise element supposed to come
The story. Daily life in 2030 (meaning)
How and why did things happen? (plausibility)
economy
welfare
environment/culture
security
how do people live here?
Public sector (dependent variable - relevance)
democracy, politics and governance
new structures between the national levels and the
surroundings
The social historian 2030 (backcasting)
What was Norway2030?
Experiences from Norway2030 may
be presented through three basic
questions:
• what is foresight&scenario-building?
• what is policy development/ strategic
planning?
• how to organise the relationship
between them?
Outcomes and learnings - Methods
How to construct scenarios
to make them effective
means in strategic
discourses and policy
development?
Outcomes and learnings - Methods
HOW TO ORGANIZE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN
SCENARIOBUILDING AND STRATEGIC PLANNING?
•
Scenarios and strategic focus
(I. - V. = scenario-perspectives)
I.
V.
II.
Strategic
focus
IV.
III.
Outcomes and learnings - Methods
- important stakeholders should be involved (’broad
participation’)
- a clear distinction between ’actors’ and ’factors’
- a clear distinction between situational scenarios
and development scenarios
- show clearly who who have decide what in the
scenarios, and then concretise consequences of
such choices
- Actors/change agents or decision makers should
be appropriate for contemporary or future decision
units (relevance for own enterprise/nation)
Outcomes and learnings - Methods
-The scenarios should demonstrate real
alternatives
- the scenarios should demonstrate clearly what
perspective the scenario is founded on
-scenarios, then, are not universal scenarios, but
always situational and special, or contextual
-the demonstration of counter forces are
important
Outcomes and learnings - Methods
Good scenarios must represent:
surprise
meaning
plausibility
relevance
Back-casting
Key Lessons
• anchoring a project in a ministry have both
positive and negative aspects
– pos: close to politicians, acknowledged institution,
contributed to real change across and within
ministries
– neg: it was necessary to fight against the stereotype
of ”the boring bureaucrat” in the public, difficult to
define a liberal arena, some kind of isolation from
other societal arenas
• scenarios must be constructed according to
defined quality criteria to be useful in strategy
discourses
Key Lessons
• scenario- and foresight activities should be
more integrated in in the national innovation
system (which in Norway is very fragmented)
• much to much dependence on personal interest
and idealism by single individuals
• difficult to achieve institutional results
– may be changed when foresight/scenariobuild. are integrated in a
national innovation policy
• scenarios must be constructed according to
defined quality criteria to be useful in strategy
discourses
Key Lessons
• Early stage analyses of the contemporary
situation
• Actor orientation. Focus at current and potential
future actors/decision makers
• Develop a central database with grand
perspectives on future development at national,
regional and global level
• A national Programme structure with several
Sub-projects
Key Lessons
• Political institutionalisation ( eg. Committee for
the Future in the finish Parliament)
• Involve Politicians, Academics and
Representatives from the Media
• Differentiate clearly between the scenario
activities and a following Vision building
process/policy development
• Differentiate between situational scenarios (the
situation in 2023) and development scenarios
(the road from now to 2023)
Key Lessons
• International Profile. Aim at building
international network as a part of the
Programme
• Develop a pool of different foresight
methodologies as a part of a national
competence network for Foresight
methodological development
Key Lessons
• Establish a Governance Project on
innovation with extensive use of
foresight!
• Don’t trust the past! Combine Innovation
Policy and Scenario-tools
• Initialise a White Book on Innovation
• Explore the Potential of new generic
Technologies!
(Nano- Bio- & Gentechnologies)
The End
End
of Presentation