McCann Worldgroup
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Presented by:
Mary-Kay Harrity
05.06.11
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The Yankelovich MONITOR
Paints a broad outline of
the marketplace
Identifies “universal” demands
and unmet marketplace needs
that apply to brand-specific
issues
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METHODOLOGY
• Ages 16+
• Nationally projectable
• Fielding 1: Macro trend analysis
• 3,998 respondents
• Fieldings 2-4:Tracking key
measures and deep dives into
Finances & Spending,
Multicultural, Health &
Wellness and Sustainability
• 2,500 respondents each
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Conventional Wisdom Upended
Divergence and Consensus
In Search of Fairness
The Future Will Be Social
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CONVENTIONAL WISDOM UPENDED
Economic hardship is only
one catalyst at work; many
rules seem designed for a
different era
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CONVENTIONAL WISDOM UPENDED
Children not required
41 percent of Americans say having
children is very important for a
successful marriage, compared to 65
percent in 1990
(Pew Research Center, 2007)
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CONVENTIONAL WISDOM UPENDED
(Among 30-44) Share of husbands whose wives’ income tops theirs
1970
4%
2007
22%
(Among 30-44) Among married women, which spouse has more education?
1970
2007
28%
19%
52%
53%
20%
28%
Husband
Same
Wife
Notes: Includes only native-born 30-44 year-olds.
Source: Pew Center and Decennial Censuses and 2007 American Community Survey (ACS) Integrated Public Use
Micro Samples (IPUMS)
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CONVENTIONAL WISDOM UPENDED
Working dads feeling work-life conflict more than working moms
Percentage reporting work-life conflict
Men
Women
1977
35%
41%
2008
59%
45%
Among dual-earner families with child(ren) under 18
Source: Families and Work Institute, National Study of the Changing Workforce, 2008
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CONVENTIONAL WISDOM UPENDED
Stay-at-home dads
Fathers with working spouses who
stay home to care for family:
2002: 105,000
2006: 159,000
(Census)
“But that's only part of the picture, says Aaron Rochlen, an associate
professor at the University of Texas at Austin. Rochlen, who studies gender
roles and psychology, says many dads with working wives try to work part
time or consider themselves ‘consultants.’ But many are, in fact, the primary
caregivers to their children. By that expanded definition, he says, there are
about 2 million at-home dads. That number has also likely risen during the
recession because about 70 percent of the lost jobs affected men.”
(“Stay-At-Home Dads Grapple With Going Back To Work,” NPR, 03.24.10)
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CONVENTIONAL WISDOM UPENDED
Structural unemployment now our problem
“In the United States, unemployment has
typically been a relatively brief affair. The vast
majority of people who lost jobs soon found
new work…the latest figures indicate that
46 percent of Americans classified as
unemployed – meaning they are out of
work and seeking a job – have been
unemployed for at least six months.
That is nearly twice the previous post-World
War II high, set in 1983.”
(“When Being Out of Work Becomes a Chronic Condition,”
The New York Times, 07.16.10)
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CONVENTIONAL WISDOM UPENDED
Challenging the ROI of college
“Of the top 30 jobs projected to grow at the
fastest rate over the next decade, only 7
typically require a bachelor’s degree according
to the BLS…among the top 10 growing
categories, two require college degrees:
accounting (a bachelor’s) and postsecondary
teachers (a doctorate). But this growth is
expected to be dwarfed by the need for
registered nurses, home health aides, customer
service representatives, and store clerks.”
(“What’s the Key to Success in the United States?”,
The New York Times, 05.14.10)
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CONVENTIONAL WISDOM UPENDED
This is not your father’s recession
“Consumers are returning to the marketplace in ways that
defy simplistic conventional wisdom…Prioritization has
replaced accumulation as consumer’s primary
shopping style…consumers do not have the financial
wherewithal they used to have, but they have not given up
their aspirations to the good life…most of their
expenditures are fixed, so there is no financial adjustment
that can free up significant additional funds…prioritization
is the only financial strategy that can simultaneously enable
consumers to spend to stay afloat.”
(“First Things First,” The Futures Company Finance and Spending View, 05.27.10)
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CONVENTIONAL WISDOM UPENDED
Not frugality or indulgence – but both
“
Americans are broke – and depressed – and also
swilling $3 lattes and waiting in line for iPhones.
Welcome to the schizophrenic economy
“
(“The New Abnormal,” Business Week. 07.29.10)
68%
Today
Agree: “Sometimes I just need to treat
myself to something nice/fun even if I
have to tighten up my budget in other
places”
(Yankelovich MONITOR 2010 Finances & Spending Lens)
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CONVENTIONAL WISDOM UPENDED
Store brands lead; national brands follow?
54 percent of consumers say “I prefer
name brands,” compared to 46 percent
who say “I prefer store brands”
(Yankelovich MONITOR 2010 Finances & Spending Lens)
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THINKING AHEAD
• Expect to have to update assumptions about ‘the household’
and ‘the family’ on an ongoing basis
• Stay alert to clients’ competition coming from outside – as
well as inside – of category as consumers prioritize spending
– Meaningful innovation is a key route to getting onto the
‘priority list’ today
• Expect consumers to spend on favored ‘indulgences’
– but carefully within budget
• Expect clients’ brands to need extra efforts to ‘woo back’
defectors to private label, even as the economy improves
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Conventional Wisdom Upended
Divergence and Consensus
In Search of Fairness
The Future Will Be Social
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DIVERGENCE AND CONSENSUS
In a divergent marketplace,
it’s too easy to lose sight of
the views people share
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DIVERGENCE AND CONSENSUS
Divergence
A matter of diversity
A matter of splintering
Consensus
• Not about unanimity
• A subjective approach to
identifying the commonalities
that create shared experiences
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DIVERGENCE AND CONSENSUS
Divergence: A diverse population
Household Diversity Religious Diversity
Non-traditional
households have
overtaken “married with
children”*
“The US is on the verge
of becoming a minority
Protestant country”**
Gender Identity
Racial Diversity
Lesbian, Gay, bisexual or
transgender individuals
estimated at 6.6% 18+***
5.3MM people
reported to be of at
least two races****
*
**
***
****
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, 2008 Annual Social and Economic Supplement,
Internet Release January 2009
Source: AFP reporting on the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life. Study, 02.25,08
Source: The U.S. Gay and Lesbian Market, 2008, Packaged Facts and Witeck-Combs Communications
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Annual Estimates of the Resident Population by Sex, Race,
and Hispanic Origin for the United States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009 (NC-EST2009-03). Release Date
June, 2010
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DIVERGENCE AND CONSENSUS
Divergence: A splintered marketplace
Political Ideology
Media Cocoons
“People surround
themselves with what
they like, so they only
read the news they like”
Broadband Divide
The “Creative Class”
According to the FCC,
between 14 and 24
million Americans
still lack access to
broadband
A new social class of
knowledge workers,
intellectuals, and artists
driving growth by creating
new ideas, new technology,
new creative content
The Employed and
The Unemployed
A two-track economy
(zeropointinformation.com)
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DIVERGENCE AND CONSENSUS
Consensus: The future will look different
66% 68%
65% 63%
Agree “The recession
will change our
nation forever”
Agree “I’ll never
spend my money
as freely as before
the recession”
2009
Today
2009
Today
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DIVERGENCE AND CONSENSUS
Consensus: Not expecting to ‘settle’
Quality is no less important to me
today than it has been in the past
76%
Today
(Yankelovich MONITOR – Finances & Spending Lens 2010)
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DIVERGENCE AND CONSENSUS
Consensus: Time for a world view
75%
66%
Agree “In order to be successful
in today’s world, young people
must have an awareness of
cultures outside the US”
Agree “I appreciate the influence
other cultures are having on the
American way of life”
Today
Today
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DIVERGENCE AND CONSENSUS
Consensus: Control’s the goal, but it’s still elusive
70%
71%
66%
Say being in control
of your life is a sign
of success and
accomplishment
Say managing stress
is important to them
in their personal life
today
8-10 on a 10pt. scale where 10
is definitely a sign of success,
accomplishment and 0 is
definitely not a sign of success,
accomplishment
6-7 on a 7pt. scale where
7 is extremely important
and 1 is not at all
important
Agree “No matter
how hard I try, I never
seem to have enough
time to do all the
things I need to do”
Today
Today
Today
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DIVERGENCE AND CONSENSUS
Consensus: Health is high on consumers’ radar
84%
62%
Agree “I’m trying to
take better care of
my health today than
just a few years ago”
Agree “Everyone
pays the price when
an individual leads an
unhealthy lifestyle”
(2010 US MONITOR Health &
Wellness Lens)
(2010 US MONITOR Health &
Wellness Lens)
Today
Today
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DIVERGENCE AND CONSENSUS
Consensus: But getting healthy remains a challenge
68%
70%
71%
Agree “There are
more health risks in
society today than
ever before”
Agree “There is so
much information
about nutrition these
days that it is
confusing to know
what you should and
should not eat”
Agree “I wish
grocery stores would
make it easier to
determine what
foods are healthier
than others”
Today
(2010 Global Monitor, US sample)
Today
Today
(2010 US MONITOR Health &
Wellness Lens)
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DIVERGENCE AND CONSENSUS
Consensus: Essentials – old and new
71%
63%
65%
Say finding enough
time for family and
friends is important
to them in their
personal life today
Behaviors you do regularly:
Stay mentally active by
challenging yourself with
puzzles, books, hobbies
or interesting work
Agree “I could not
get by without the
Internet”
Today
Today
Today
(Yankelovich MONITOR 2010
Finances & Spending Lens)
6-7 on a 7pt. scale where 7 is
extremely important and 1 is
not at all important
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THINKING AHEAD
• Anticipate continuing pressure from consumers’ determined to get what
suits them best as an individual
• …and help clients plan for more subgroups looking for recognition in
the marketplace
• Expect consumers to continue to value control
• …and value information and resources that help them move ‘seamlessly’
through the demands of everyday life
• Expect consumers to look for and appreciate health
guidance/information that is easily understandable and easily useable
• Explore new options for helping clients leverage consumers’ attraction
to a ‘global experience’
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Conventional Wisdom Upended
Divergence and Consensus
In Search of Fairness
The Future Will Be Social
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
Economy in free fall; Wall Street
melts down
Consumer confidence plummets to
all time low 10.28.08
Foreclosure frenzy
Rising cost of food, gas, energy
2008, 2009
Health benefits in
jeopardy
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
The reality…
Consumers believed…
2008, 2009
Responsibility
Economy in free fall; Wall Street
melts down
• That most institutions
were taken by surprise
Consumer confidence
plummets to all time low
10.28.08
• That most institutions had
their best interests at
heart
Foreclosure frenzy
• That the pain was shared
Rising cost of food, gas, energy
Health benefits in
jeopardy
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
2008, 2009
Responsibility
Anxiety, hope, patience
Bailing out the biggies in good faith
Owning our problems
Minimizing risk, considering
consequences
Embracing self-reliance
Living within means, not above… or
below
Brightsiding
Rebuilding outward slowly
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
Self-reliance efforts and rewards resonate more
64% 70%
2009
Today
Better increase your chance
of succeeding in today’s world
by: “Becoming as self-reliant
as possible” (over “seeking
the help and guidance of
professionals”)
(2010 Global Monitor, US Sample)
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
Adjusting to new financial realities continues
56% 67%
46%
Relate more to
“saving for the
future” than to
“spending on
something I want
or need today”
Using your credit
card less and
instead using other
methods of
payments like cash
or a debit card
2009
Today
Today
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
Getting help in adjusting to new financial realities
“Coming soon: credit and debit cards that cut you off when you disregard
your own monthly budget. The service, called inControl and already in use
by some Barclaycard holders in Britain, is a sort of financial chastity belt that
offers the potential to prevent a variety of budget sins and other money
traps. Worried about your restaurant habit? If your bank adopts
MasterCard’s service, you could tell it to have your debit or credit card
reject any restaurant purchase above whatever monthly cap you set …
When introduction begins in a few months, it will include only alerts for
credit card customers; letting people set their own spending limits will
presumably come later … Changing behavior, in the end, is the biggest
challenge … MasterCard seems to have made it possible for your bank to
become a partner in your self-improvement instead of an enabler of your
misdeeds.”
(“Your Card Has Been Declined, Juts as You Wanted,” The New York Times, 08.14.10)
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
A still-slow economy
…and stubborn unemployment
Breaches of faith all around – from
CEO’s to Congress, from Hollywood
to the hardwood
Too many corporate abuses
Today
Frustration with lack of progress
Our assumptions were wrong
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
The reality…
A still-slow economy
…and stubborn
unemployment
Breaches of faith all around –
from CEO’s to Congress, from
Hollywood to the hardwood
Too many corporate abuses
Frustration with lack of
progress
Our assumptions were wrong
Consumers wonder…
Today
Stunned and
• Was I conned?
outraged by
• Where are all the
the audacity
consequences for others? of betrayal...
• Were lessons learned or
is it back to business-asusual?
• Does anyone know what
they are doing?
…in
search of
fairness
• Where is the end to my
crisis fatigue?
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
What do we mean by fairness?
A way of acting or treating others
Treating like cases alike
If there is a hierarchy…
– Levels need to be overt; criteria need to be public
– Same criteria for everyone at that level
– No favoritism
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
“Even kids know it’s wrong to treat new
friends better than old friends. At Ally
Bank, we treat all our customers fairly.
With no teaser rates, and no minimum
deposits. It’s just the right thing to do.”
(Ally Bank TV commercial)
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
Trends driving fairness
Skepticism advancing
Brightsiding challenged
Emotional and material
privation
A new focus on self
Burrowing deeper into safer
networks
Questioning social
responsibility efforts
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
Skepticism advancing
Brightsiding challenged
Emotional and material privation
A new focus on self
Burrowing deeper into safer
networks
Social responsibility 2.0
84% 79%
2009
Today
Agree “Business is too concerned with profits and
not enough with public responsibility”
64% 67%
2009
Today
Agree “If the opportunity arises, most businesses
will take advantage of the public if they feel they
are not likely to be found out”
65% 70%
2006
Today
Agree “Businesses care more about selling me
products and services that already exist rather than
coming up with something that really fits my lifestyle”
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
Skepticism advancing
Brightsiding challenged
Emotional and material privation
A new focus on self
Burrowing deeper into safer
networks
Social responsibility 2.0
63%
28% 35%
Agree “I am
increasingly skeptical
of the claims made by
brands on packaging
and advertisements”
Agree “I don’t
believe the claims
made by
environmentally
friendly products”
(2010 Global Monitor, US sample)
(2010 Global Monitor, US sample)
Today
2009
Today
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
Skepticism advancing
Brightsiding challenged
Emotional and material privation
A new focus on self
Burrowing deeper into safer
networks
52% 53% 43%
2008
2009
Today
Agree “If Americans turn out to be
less well off in the future than they
have been in the past, they may
actually be happier because of it”
Social responsibility 2.0
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
Skepticism advancing
Brightsiding challenged
Emotional and material
privation
A new focus on self
Burrowing deeper into safer
networks
Social responsibility 2.0
58% 54% 50%
2008
2009
Today
Agree “I’ve got all the material
things I need”
(2010 Global Monitor, US sample)
38% 34% 41%
2008
2009
Today
Agree “When I buy any product, its
style and design is as important to me
as its performance”
(2010 Global Monitor, US sample)
44%
Today
Of those working ft/pt agree “the recession
has made my job/career less rewarding”
(Yankelovich MONITOR 2010
Finances & Spending Lens)
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
Skepticism advancing
Brightsiding challenged
Emotional and material privation
A new focus on self
Burrowing deeper into safer
networks
Social responsibility 2.0
• Slowly building outward calls
on ME to ensure the
foundation is OK
• Lack of fairness triggers selfdefense instincts…
• And gets competitive juices
flowing
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
Skepticism advancing
Brightsiding challenged
55% 56% 61% 67%
2007
2008
2009
Today
A new focus on self
Agree “I work hard at coming out on top in
every situation — from the least important to
the most important”
Burrowing deeper into safer
networks
53% 49% 47%
Emotional and material privation
Social responsibility 2.0
2008
2009
Today
Agree “There is a sense of community where I live”
(2010 Global Monitor, US sample)
53% 50% 47%
2008
2009
Today
Agree “We should do what is good for the
planet even if it harms the U.S. economy”
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
Skepticism advancing
Brightsiding challenged
Emotional and material privation
A new focus on self
Burrowing deeper into safer
networks
• More intense scrutiny of all connections:
My personal relationships; my
community; my brands; my networks
• The word of the year?
“Unfriend”
Social responsibility 2.0
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
Skepticism advancing
Brightsiding challenged
Emotional and material privation
A new focus on self
Burrowing deeper into safer
networks
Social responsibility 2.0
53% 59%
2009
Today
(Among those using social networking
sites at least weekly) Agree “I am
concerned that the information I put on
social networking sites will be misused by
others”
(2010 Global Monitor, US sample)
45% 43% 51%
2008
2009
Today
Agree “I am enthusiastic about new technology
that can enable me to find and interact with
like-minded people”
(2010 Global Monitor, US sample)
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
Skepticism advancing
Brightsiding challenged
Emotional and material privation
A new focus on self
Burrowing deeper into safer
networks
Social responsibility 2.0
• Belief in the power to make a difference
through the marketplace continues
• But consumers feeling distanced from
social responsibility efforts
– A cluttered and crowded arena; less a
competitive advantage, more a price of
entry
– A matter of relevance:Your cause may
not be my cause
– A more sophisticated perspective
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
Skepticism advancing
Brightsiding challenged
Emotional and material privation
A new focus on self
Burrowing deeper into safer
networks
Social responsibility 2.0
69% 68% 69%
2008
2009
Today
Agree “I feel that I can make a difference
to the world around me through the
choices I make and the actions I take”
(2010 Global MONITOR, US sample)
64%
Today
Agree “Most companies only
make claims about their socially
responsible efforts to try to sell
me more of their products”
(2010 Global MONITOR, US sample)
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IN SEARCH OF FAIRNESS
Skepticism advancing
Brightsiding challenged
Emotional and material privation
A new focus on self
Burrowing deeper into safer
networks
Social responsibility 2.0
63% 65% 71% 63%
2007
2008
2009
Today
Agree “When a company donates to or does
something for my school or community, I think
it’s only right that my family and I try to buy
things from that company as often as possible”
Agree more with:
“In terms of making a real difference in
the world, it doesn’t matter which
companies I choose to do business with”
“By choosing to do business with
companies that are more socially
responsible, I can make a real difference
in this world”
23% 32%
2009
Today
75% 66%
2009
Today
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THINKING AHEAD
• Anticipate consumers holding clients to the new criterion of ‘fairness’
• Elevate transparency from an option to a mandate
• Expect that consumers will need ‘proof’ in the form of products, service,
messaging that are truly meaningful in order to engage with brand
• Explore new opportunities for clients to help consumers deal with feelings of
‘emotional deprivation’
– Rouse a sense of feeling “alive”
– Redesign the everyday and make ordinary experiences special
– Provide opportunities for occasional spontaneity and escape routes
– Deliver energy boosts – physical and emotional
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Conventional Wisdom Upended
Divergence and Consensus
In Search of Fairness
The Future Will Be Social
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THE FUTURE WILL BE SOCIAL
With people more and more
deeply embedded in
narrowly drawn networks,
the importance of social
influences is accelerating and
leading to an elemental
change in the character of
the marketplace
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THE FUTURE WILL BE SOCIAL
Top 10 sectors by share of internet time
Rank
Category
Share of Time
June 2010
Share of
Time June
2009
% Change in
Share of
Time
1
Social Networks
22.7%
15.8%
43%
2
Online Games
10.2%
9.3%
10%
3
E-mail
8.3%
11.5%
-28%
4
Portals
4.4%
5.5%
-19%
5
Instant Messaging
4.0%
4.7%
-15%
6
Videos/Movies
3.9%
3.5%
12%
7
Search
3.5%
3.4%
1%
8
Software Manufacturers
3.3%
3.3%
0%
9
Multi-category
Entertainment
2.8%
3.0%
-7%
10
Classifieds/Auctions
2.7%
2.7%
-2%
Source: The Nielsen Company.
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THE FUTURE WILL BE SOCIAL
Social influences: From background to foreground
The future…
Context
Top Down
• Controlled by
authority
• Edited
• Limited access
Access
• Still controlled by
authority
• More open
• More democratized
access
Collaboration
• Participatory
• Customization
• Universal access
• Specialized, tailored,
filtered
• Vetting info through
close personal
connections
• Social stream*
*“Information is becoming less of a destination that we seek online. Instead we are expecting it to come
to us in a social stream.” (Anthony Rotolo, assistant professor in the School of Social Information at Syracuse University)
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THE FUTURE WILL BE SOCIAL
A ‘push back’ developing?
54%
50%
Have ever “friend-ed” or “become a
fan” of a brand or company on a
social networking site (like facebook
and Twitter)*
Agree “I am greatly annoyed with the
amount of advertising and branded
pages on social networking sites (like
facebook and Twitter”)*
Today
Today
Millennials
Xers
Boomers
Matures
64%
59%
42%
33%
Millennials
Xers
Boomers
Matures
64%
49%
38%
42%
*Among those who visit social networking sites
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THINKING AHEAD
• Expect the imperative to be creating ways that clients are invited into
consumers’ conversation about life – without organizing the conversation
around brand
• Expect the balance of power to continue shifting in the direction of
‘consumer-mediated’ brand messages
• Plan for new and innovative ways to target social networks – rather than
collections of individuals
• Prepare for greater sensitivity to too much connection – and more
pushback on perceived brand ‘intrusions’
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DEMANDS ON BRANDS
Build a bond of faith by helping clients be a brand with soul
Brands with soul…
• Convey humanity
• Manifest an “organic” goodness
• Never do harm
• Have a face/voice that is real to people
• Have a values core that is steadfast and nurtured
• Stay constant in bad times, as well as good times
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Be a brand with soul
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Thank you!
For questions please contact:
Mary-Kay Harrity
SVP/East Region
203-229-0239
Mary-Kay.Harrity@thefuturescompany.com
Amy Pleasant
Account Executive
352-333-0233
Amy.Pleasant@thefuturescompany.com
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