How East Asians
View Democracy
East Asia Barometer
A Comparative Survey of Democratization and
Value Change, 2001-2003






First systematic comparative survey of attitudes and values toward politics,
governance, democracy and reform, and citizens’ political actions in East
Asia
Standardized survey instruments designed around a common research
framework
Federated country-team structure, coordinated by Yun-han Chu, National
Taiwan University, with international steering committee
Funded by Taiwan Ministry of Education, Henry Luce Foundation, World
Bank, foundations in some of the countries, and other sources
Allows for nested comparisons: three Chinese societies, five “Confucian”
societies, developed/developing, democratic/non-democratic; within-society
educational, gender, occupational, ethnic, religious, and other groups
Later changed its name to Asian Barometer Surveys. Web address:
www.asianbarometer.org
Table 1.2a Survey Schedules and Sample Sizes
of First Wave EAB
Data release form
Table 1.2b Survey Schedules and Sample Sizes
of Second Wave AB
Location
Survey Schedule
Valid Cases
Taiwan
Jan 14-Feb 15 2006
1587
Hong Kong
Sep-Dec 2007
849
Thailand
Apr-Sep 2006
1546
Philippines
Nov 25-Dec 5 2005
1200
China
Oct 15 2008
Not yet complete
Mongolia
May 25-Jun 9 2006
1211
Japan
Feb 23-Mar 12 2007
1067
South Korea
Sep 7-22 2006
1212
Indonesia
Nov 15-29 2006
1598
Vietnam
Nov 25-Dec 5 2005
1200
Singapore
Jul 15-Dec 22 2006
1012
Malaysia
Jul 14-Aug 15 2007
1218
Cambodia
Apr 19-May 4 2008
1000
Regime Support and Democratic Support in Asia
(% of total sample expressing support)
Our form of gov't
best for us
Regime
Satisfied with how
support
democracy works
in our country
Rejects
authoritarian
Support for
alternatives
democracy
Commitment to
democracy
Satisfied with
current gov't
Trusts gov't
Related
institutions
attitudes
Expects
democratic
progress
Average
Thailand
China
Mongolia
Taiwan Philippines Korea
Hong Kong
Japan
Average
68.2%
94.4%
69.8%
67.3%
53.6%
36.0%
54.5%
24.3%
58.5%
90.4%
81.7%
69.8%
53.4%
52.5%
61.8%
57.6%
49.0%
64.5%
77.3%
74.3%
75.4%
82.7%
70.4%
86.6%
83.9%
95.4%
80.7%
92.2%
66.1%
84.0%
50.1%
73.5%
76.6%
52.0%
74.9%
71.2%
89.7%
N/A
55.2%
41.3%
58.5%
35.0%
34.6%
37.1%
50.2%
64.3%
72.2%
52.0%
39.2%
41.4%
28.6%
63.2%
31.3%
49.0%
96.2%
96.7%
92.1%
87.5%
82.3%
95.0%
59.1%
85.0%
86.7%
82.6%
80.9%
71.2%
60.2%
61.7%
59.9%
57.8%
56.7%
66.4%
Notes:
Source: 2006 Asian Barometer Surveys, preliminary 7-nation dataset as of July 2007
"Rejects authoritarian alternatives"=respondent rejects at least half of the authoritarian alternatives on which s/he expresses an opinion, out of a possible total of
three; "Commitment to democracy"=combined measure of five positive attitudes toward democracy; "Trusts government institutions"=summed trust scores for five
government institutions is more positive than negative.
Bold (red) numbers are at or above the average for that row, nonbold (green) numbers below the average
Table 1.3 Meaning of Democracy
(% of total sample mentioning this meaning)
Table 1.13 Commitment to Rule of Law
(% of respondents)
Table 1.8 Support for Democracy
(% of respondents)
Table 1.9 Authoritarian Detachment
(% of respondents)
Democratic Values in East Asia
(% giving pro-democratic answer)
Japan
Hong Kong
Korea
Taiwan
China
90.3%
90.1%
72.2%
90.2%
91.6%
55.4%
76.3%
55.2%
69.0%
66.6%
39.9%
85.7%
67.3%
52.9%
66.1%
The government should decide whether
certain ideas should be allowed to be
discussed in society [political liberty]
(disagree).
70.3%
69.2%
60.1%
If the government is constantly checked
by the legislature, it cannot possibly
accomplish great things [separation of
powers] (disagree).
62.1%
55.7%
If we have political leaders who are morally
upright, we can let them decide everything
[government accountability] (disagree).
68.3%
Harmony of the community will be
disrupted if people organize lots of groups
[political pluralism] (disagree).
If people have too many different ways of
thinking, society will be chaotic [political
pluralism] (disagree).
People with little or no education should
have as much say in politics as highly
educated people [political equality]
(agree).
When judges decide important cases,
they should accept the view of the
executive branch [separation of powers]
(disagree).
Government leaders are like the head of a
family; we should all follow their decisions
[government accountability] (disagree).
Philippines Mongolia
Thailand
Average
83.0%
84.5%
82.2%
38.7%
74.2%
40.3%
57.5%
39.3%
47.5%
34.5%
41.8%
54.4%
71.5%
36.8%
39.7%
23.2%
47.3%
52.3%
53.8%
29.6%
55.4%
49.9%
41.3%
47.8%
49.4%
60.5%
37.2%
62.4%
47.0%
46.9%
30.7%
25.1%
47.3%
42.4%
52.1%
64.8%
38.1%
24.5%
46.2%
31.5%
16.2%
39.5%
44.2%
45.2%
52.8%
25.0%
36.9%
43.4%
19.9%
23.7%
36.4%
Table 1.7 Perceived Change from Past to Present
Regime (% of valid sample mentioning this meaning)
Difference in Perceived Performance of Current and Past
Regimes
(% perceiving improvement minus percent perceiving worsening)
Thailand
Japan
China
Mongolia
Taiwan
Korea
Philippines
Hong Kong
Democratic
performance
69.7
60.8
53.1
51.8
50.0
31.5
26.8
-24.1
Policy
performance
57.3
15.2
-8.2
-16.8
-11.1
-23.1
8.9
1.3
Democratic performance includes freedom of speech, freedom of association,
equal treatment of citizens by government, providing citizens w ith popular influence
over government, and providing an independent judiciary. Policy performance
includes w orking against corruption, providing law and order, providing economic
development, and providing economic equality.
Table 10.3 Impact of Regime Policy Performance on
Support for Democracy
(Standardized regression coefficient)
Traditional Values in East Asia
(% agree or strongly agree)
For the sake of the family, the individual
should put his personal interests second.
If there is a quarrel, we should ask an
elder to resolve the dispute.
When one has a conflict with a neighbor,
the best way to deal with it is to
accommodate the other person.
A person should not insist on his own
opinion if his co-workers disagree with
him.
Even if parents’ demands are
unreasonable, children still should do
what they ask.
When a mother-in-law and a daughter-inlaw come into conflict, even if the motherin-law is in the wrong, the husband
should still persuade his wife to obey his
mother.
When hiring someone, even if a stranger
is more qualified, the opportunity should
still be given to relatives and friends.
Wealth and poverty, success and failure
are all determined by fate.
A man will lose face if he works under a
female supervisor.
Average percent traditional
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Japan
Philippines
Korea
China
Thailand
Mongolia
Average
90.2%
86.1%
72.7%
79.0%
69.9%
91.0%
88.1%
73.6%
81.3%
36.9%
68.9%
66.2%
75.8%
44.2%
72.4%
76.7%
70.9%
64.0%
67.1%
46.1%
75.4%
45.8%
71.4%
71.9%
50.7%
82.3%
63.8%
53.4%
63.0%
61.4%
57.0%
61.4%
51.6%
62.3%
66.7%
59.6%
23.6%
23.7%
43.5%
29.2%
47.5%
34.2%
37.5%
69.0%
38.5%
37.7%
48.4%
23.3%
27.9%
---
53.5%
43.3%
26.9%
37.3%
35.2%
28.4%
33.6%
24.9%
26.3%
36.7%
46.6%
65.6%
37.2%
40.1%
27.3%
26.7%
55.1%
29.5%
24.4%
43.5%
46.5%
36.6%
7.0%
9.7%
15.4%
23.6%
26.7%
8.5%
46.7%
30.3%
21.0%
43.5%
44.6%
46.5%
46.5%
47.1%
49.4%
55.0%
59.1%
49.0%
Table 5. Correlates of Traditional and Democratic Values
Socioeconomic status
Better
Higher
Urban
educated income
Older
Male
Involved in
politics
Political attitudes and perceptions
Internal
Inst'l
Leaders
Increased Democratic
efficacy
trust
responsive pol rights
progress
China
Traditional values
-.462
-.207
-.301
.241
-.240
-.071
-.092
-.174
.047
-.055
Democratic values
.367
.182
.287
-.198
.059
.167
.071
.140
.138
Taiwan
Traditional values
-.395
-.271
-.167
.414
-.150
-.221
.144
-.086
.162
Democratic values
.246
.196
.092
-.219
.057
.181
.190
-.112
.099
-.073
Hong Kong
Traditional values
-.426
-.227
N/A
.322
.088
-.081
-.189
.074
Democratic values
.453
.328
N/A
-.309
.079
.222
-.120
.079
Korea
Traditional values
-.211
-.152
-.096
.256
.116
-.218
.123
-.243
-.093
Democratic values
.152
.201
.119
-.166
.226
-.097
.231
.074
Japan
Traditional values
-.212
.274
-.121
.086
-.115
Democratic values
.222
.105
-.016
-.092
.105
.165
.297
-.116
.287
-.099
.065
Philippines
Traditional values
-.090
-.178
.072
.057
-.071
-.132
-.105
Democratic values
.067
-.069
.262
.292
.072
Thailand
Traditional values
-.271
-.280
-.098
.155
-.063
-.223
-.231
-.051
.120
Democratic values
.157
.212
.185
.210
.069
.199
-.181
Mongolia
Traditional values
-.094
-.077
-.106
.094
.058
-.139
-.071
-.135
Democratic values
.150
.073
-.121
.079
.063
.244
.264
Notes:
Source: 2001-2003 East Asia Barometer Surveys
Dependent variables are additive scales of respondent's disagreement or agreement with traditional-value and democratic-value
questionnaire items. The scale ranges from -9 to +9 for traditional values (Korea is pro-rated on a base of 8) and from -8 to +8 for
democratic values.
Education measured in years, income in quintiles, age in five-year age groups, involvement in politics by expressing interest in politics and
following news about politics, internal efficacy by response to four questions on one's ability to understand and participate in politics,
institutional trust by expressed trust in five government institutions, leaders responsive by response to two questions on responsiveness of
government leaders, increased political rights by perception current regime has improved access to up to five political rights, democratic
progress by view that current regime is more democratic than previous one.
Entries are Pearson's correlation coefficients. Unbolded (green) numbers are significant at the .05 level, bolded (red) numbers at or above
the .001 level. Blank cells indicate correlations without statistical significance. N/A=not applicable (no urban-rural variable in Hong Kong).
First and Second Wave
Comparison
Satisfaction with the way democracy works
(% satisfied)
100
88.9
79.7
80
67.5
67.1 63.4
60
61.4
55.9
48.1
48.1
47.9
45.4
52.4
47.9
37.8
40
20
First wave
Second wave
on
g
K
on
g
H
Th
ai
la
nd
pp
in
es
Ph
i li
M
on
go
li a
an
Ta
iw
Ko
re
a
Ja
pa
n
0
Democracy is always preferable
(% Agree)
100
83.8
72.7
80
68.563.4
60
63.6
49.4
42.7
54
47.5
50.6
43.1
39.7
40.4
40.4
40
20
First wave
Second wave
on
g
K
on
g
H
Th
ai
la
nd
pp
in
es
Ph
i li
M
on
go
li a
an
Ta
iw
Ko
re
a
Ja
pa
n
0
We should get rid of parliament and elections and have a
strong leader decide things
(% Strongly or somewhat disagree)
100
80
79.1 78.5
84.482.7
78.8
76.6
76.1
69.4
68.3
59.2
68.771.5
58.6
60
35.8
40
20
First wave
Second wave
on
g
K
on
g
H
Th
ai
la
nd
pp
in
es
Ph
i li
M
on
go
li a
an
Ta
iw
Ko
re
a
Ja
pa
n
0
Authoritarian detachment
(% Oppose all three non-democratic alternatives except
expert rule)
100.0
76.8
71.2
80.0
73
65.1
60.0
54.7
54.3
50.0
49.4
30.9 37.0
28.4
40.0
38.5 43.1
35.6
20.0
First wave
Second wave
on
g
K
on
g
H
Th
ai
la
nd
pp
in
es
Ph
i li
M
on
go
li a
an
Ta
iw
Ko
re
a
Ja
pa
n
0.0
Democracy can solve the problem
(% Positive response)
100
89.8
77.0
80
60
72
66.8 71.7
63.1
55.2
66.2
60.7
55.9
54.3
46.8
39.2 39.2
40
20
First wave
Second wave
on
g
H
on
g
K
la
nd
Th
ai
ne
s
lip
pi
Ph
i
M
on
go
lia
an
Ta
iw
Ko
re
a
Ja
pa
n
0
Whatever its faults may be, our form of government is still
the best for us
(% Agree)
90
83.8
82.7
80
77.3
70
66.9
62.2 61.2
56.2
60
50
40
76
69.1
68.1
65.5
61.5
56.6
53.3
51
48.5
36
30
27.6
21.6
20
21.2
10
First Wave
C
a
hi
n
C
am
bo
di
a
na
m
g
Second Wave
Vi
et
Ko
n
on
g
H
ap
or
e
sia
Si
ng
ay
M
al
on
es
ia
nd
In
d
ai
la
pi
ilip
Ph
Th
ne
s
lia
go
an
M
on
iw
Ta
re
a
Ko
Ja
pa
n
0
Second Wave
Q103. People have the power to change a government
they don’t like
90
81.7
80
76.5
70
67
67.1
62.1
59.4
60 56.6
51.2
45.3
49.2
44.1
50
40
75.6
39.5
34.7
30
28.2
26.9
21.4
20
15.8
13.3
16.9
Ko
rea
Ja
pa
n
0
Ta
iwa
n
Mo
ng
olia
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Th
aila
nd
Ind
on
es
ia
Ma
lay
sia
Sin
ga
po
re
Ho
ng
Ko
ng
10
Agree
Disagree
Q113. How often do national governments abide by the
law?
80
78.4
76.5
72.4
70
63.5
60
56.7
54.3
60.7
53.2
53.2
53
50
40 37.7
36.6
36.3
30.4
30
24.7
20
18.5
17
9.9
Ko
rea
0
Ta
iwa
n
Mo
ng
olia
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Th
aila
nd
Ind
on
es
ia
Ma
lay
sia
Sin
ga
po
re
Ho
ng
Ko
ng
10
Ja
pa
n
18
14.2
Always/Usually
Occasionally/Rarely
Q43. On the whole, how would you rate the freeness and
fairness of the last national election?
90
85.2
83.3
80
72.6
70 66.4
60
66.8
57.3
54.4
50
46.7
41.3
40
30
20
66.6
27.1
40.2
37.6
25.9
19.1
18.2
13
10
15.8
Ko
rea
Ja
pa
n
0
7.3
Ta
iwa
n
Mo
ng
olia
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Th
aila
nd
Ind
on
es
ia
Ma
lay
sia
Sin
ga
po
re
Ho
ng
Ko
ng
6.8
Free and fair/Minor problems
Not free or fair/Major problems
Q110. People are free to speak what they think without
fear
89.5
90
83.8
80
73
70
68.1
60
50
69.8
66.7
65.5
59.8
56.5
51.9
44.1
39.9
40
38.5
30
32
31.1
28.6
23.9
22.1
20
13
10
8.3
Agree
g
Ko
n
Ho
ng
re
po
ga
Sin
ys
ia
on
Ind
Disagree
Ma
la
es
ia
nd
aila
Th
Ph
ilip
p
ine
s
lia
go
Mo
n
n
iwa
Ta
rea
Ko
Ja
p
an
0
Q111. People can join any organization they like
100
90.1
90
80
70
60
80.1
78.6
76.8
65.3
64.3
71.3
68.5
56.5
51.4
45.6
50
40
38.2
32.2
29.9
30
25.2
23
18.8
20
18.4
13.9
10
6.2
Agree
g
Ko
n
Ho
ng
re
po
ga
Sin
ys
ia
on
Ind
Disagree
Ma
la
es
ia
nd
aila
Th
Ph
ilip
p
ine
s
lia
go
Mo
n
n
iwa
Ta
rea
Ko
Ja
p
an
0
Q116. How well do you think the government responds to
what people want?
80
74.4
73.8
70
66.4
65
64.1
59.2
60
52.5
50
47.3
56.2
49.3
46.2
43.6
41
40
35.8
33.3
38.8
32.7
30.4
30
24.6
21.2
20
10
Not Responsive
g
Ko
n
Ho
ng
re
po
ga
Sin
ys
ia
Ma
la
ia
es
on
Ind
nd
aila
ilip
p
Ph
Responsive
Th
ine
s
lia
go
Mo
n
n
iwa
Ta
rea
Ko
Ja
p
an
0
Q45-47. Access to Public Services
Mongolia Philippines
Difficult
Easy
Difficult
Difficult
Difficult
Easy
Difficult
Easy
Difficult
Easy
Singapore
Difficult
Malaysia
Easy
Indonesia
Difficult
Easy
Thailand
Easy
Taiwan
Easy
Japan
Place in
Public
Primary
School
67
2
61
3
18
56
65
16
77
8
80
20
70
9
66
19
Medical
Treatment
Nearby
94
4
90
8
25
60
57
34
83
11
84
13
80
18
89
10
Help from
Police
53
14
47
16
38
47
41
26
61
19
56
26
47
21
75
10
Policy implications






Don’t walk away after democratic transition, but invest in the consolidation of
new democracies at risk.
Consolidation is not only about elections and civil society, but even more
about rule of law, accountability, and governance – the “quality of
democracy.”
Promoting the “d” word is less valuable than promoting deeper democratic
values.
Longterm modernization promotes democratic values, but slowly and
unevenly.
The modernization process that most changes values is education.
Take authoritarian governments at their word in their democratic claims, and
work with the public’s rising expectations for democracy.
Institutionalizing African Democracy:
Formal or Informal?
Michael Bratton, Michigan State University
Research Questions
What are the trends over time in popular support for
democracy?
Is nostalgia for authoritarian rule growing or shrinking?
Over time, are Africans becoming more or less satisfied
with the quality of democracy delivered by their
leaders?
How much democracy do they think they have?
How do they arrive at their attitudes to democracy?
With reference to formal or informal institutions?
Which is more important?
If informal institutions remain important to African
politics, do they help or harm democracy?
The Afrobarometer
A comparative series of public attitude surveys on democracy,
markets and civil society.
Run by Idasa (South Africa), CDD (Ghana) and MSU, plus national
partners.
Based on:
* national probability samples (1200-3600) representing all adult
citizens
* margin of sampling error of +/- 3% at 95 % confidence
* face-to-face interviews by trained interviewers in language of choice
* response rates averaging above 80%
* standard questionnaire with identical or functionally equivalent items
Data
Comparisons of observed values across countries, and over time,
between:
* Afrobarometer Round 1 (12 countries), 1999-2001 (21,000+ cases)
* Afrobarometer Round 2 (15 countries), 2002-2003 (23,000+ cases)
* Afrobarometer Round 3 (18 countries), 2005-2006 (25,000+ cases)
Figure 2: Coverage of Afrobarometer Surveys, 1999-2
Back to Afrobarometer Countries
Figure 3: Support for Democracy,
18 African Countries, 2005
100
90
80
75 75 75
70 70 69 68 66 65 65 64
70
61 57
56 56
60
62
50
50
43 38
40
30
20
10
0
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b
sc
n
fr
a
iq
e
a
ic
ue
r
a
Percent who prefer democracy
Afrobarometer mean
“Which of these three statements is closest to your own opinion?
A.
Democracy is preferable to any other kind of government;
B.
In some circumstances a non-democratic government can be preferable;
C.
For someone like me, it doesn’t matter what form of government we have”
Figure 4: Rejection of Military Rule,
18 African Countries, 2005
100 92
89
90
84 83 83 82 81
80
76 72
80
72
70
73
71 66 66
60
62 57
51
50
40
40
30
20
10
0
Za
Bo
Be
M
K
Zi
G
Le
Ta
Se
U
N
So
C
ga
ig
ap
en
ha
al
m
ne
n
u
m
t
s
n
s
o
e
in
th
i
za
ya
e
ba
nd
w
na
bi
r
g
th
i
V
a
an
a
ni
a
A
a
bw
o
l
e
fr
a
a
rd
e
ic
e
a
M
N
A
M
M
am
B
ad
oz
al
M
am aw
ag
ib
ea
i
as
i
a
n
ca biq
ue
r
Percent who disapprove of military rule
Afrobarometer mean
“There are many ways to govern a country.
Would you disapprove or approve of the following alternative:
The army comes in to govern the country?”
Figure 5: Rejection of One-Party Rule,
18 African Countries, 2005
100
90
80
70
88 86
83
82 82 82
78
76
74 73
71 70
60
71
66 59
57
50
56 52
44
40
30
20
10
0
Za
Be
Bo
M
Zi
G
N
C
Se
K
ig
ap
ha
en
a
m
n
ni
m
t
s
eg
ba
e
ya li
w
na eri
n
bi
Ve
a
an
a
a
bw
a
rd l
e
e
M
ad
N
A
Le
S
am Uga Ma Mo Tan
B
so out
l
z
M
aw
nd
am za
ag
h
ib
th
ea
ni
A
ia
a
o
as
i
b
n
fr
a
iq
ca
i
ca
ue
r
Percent who disapprove of one-party rule
Afrobarometer mean
“There are many ways to govern a country.
Would you disapprove or approve of the following alternative:
Only one political party is allowed to stand for election and hold office?”
Figure 6: Popular Demand for Democracy:
Average Trends, 12 African Countries, 2000-2005
85
80
82
80
65
78
78
75
70
78
73
69
69
70
66
62
61
56
60
56
55
50
45
46
40
circa 2000
Support democracy
Reject one-man rule
circa 2002
Reject one-party rule
Patient with democracy
circa 2005
Reject military rule
Percentage approving democracy or rejecting other political regimes
Figure 7: Popular Support for Democracy:
Trend Comparison, Extreme Cases, 2000-2005
90
84
80
70
65
60
50
40
50
40
50
38*
30
circa 2000
circa 2002
Lesotho
Tanzania
Percentage saying that “democracy is preferable to any other form
of government.”
2005 figure for Tanzania includes 59 percent “don’t know/don’t
understand.”
circa 2005
Figure 6: Popular Demand for Democracy:
Average Trends, 12 African Countries, 2000-2005
85
80
82
80
65
78
78
75
70
78
73
69
69
70
66
62
61
56
60
56
55
50
45
46
40
circa 2000
Support democracy
Reject one-man rule
circa 2002
Reject one-party rule
Patient with democracy
circa 2005
Reject military rule
Percentage approving democracy or rejecting other political regimes
Figure 8: Perceived Supply of Democracy:
Average Trends, 12 African Countries, 2000-2005
60
58
58
56
54
54
52
50
52
50
48
49
48
46
45
44
42
40
circa 2000
circa 2002
Satisfied with democracy
Think country will remain democratic
circa 2005
Perceive extensive democracy
Percentages (a) satisfied with “the way democracy works” (b) perceiving that country has “full”
or “almost full” democracy and (c) thinking country will remain a democracy in the future
Figure 9: Satisfaction with Democracy:
Trend Comparison, Extreme Cases, 2000-2005
90
84
80
70
70
60*
60
54
50
40
35
30
26
20
circa 2000
circa 2002
Ghana
circa 2005
Nigeria
Percentage “satisfied” or “very satisfied” with “the way democracy works in (this
country).”
* The estimate for Ghana in 2002 is based on 15 percent “don’t knows” (imputed from R1
and R3 distributions)
Figure 10: Satisfaction with
Democracy:
18 African Countries, 2005
100
90
80
70 69
70
63
60
50
59 59
57
53
53 51
48 46
40
45
40 37
26 26 26 26
30
14
20
10
0
G
ha
N
Bo
M
Be
M
Za
A
M
Se
K
U
C
Le
Ta
M
N
Zi
am Sou
B
ga
ap
ig
en
al
ad
m
oz
al
ne
n
t
m
s
n
s
o
e
M
i
t
i
z
y
e
b
a
n
w
na
n
a
a
b
h
r
ib
g
t
a
da
a
wi
ab
ia
ga
ia
ea
Ve ho
al
an mb
ni
A
ia
w
sc
n
fr
a
a
r
i
q
d
e
ar
ic
e
ue
a
Percent fairly or very satisified
Afrobarometer mean
“Overall, how satisfied are you with the way democracy works in (your country)?”
Figure 8: Perceived Supply of Democracy:
Average Trends, 12 African Countries, 2000-2005
60
58
58
56
54
54
52
50
52
50
48
49
48
46
45
44
42
40
circa 2000
circa 2002
Satisfied with democracy
Think country will remain democratic
circa 2005
Perceive extensive democracy
Percentages (a) satisfied with “the way democracy works” (b) perceiving that country has “full”
or “almost full” democracy and (c) thinking country will remain a democracy in the future
Figure 13: Explaining Popular Demand for
Democracy:
Selected Social Influences
a
Multiple Regression (OLS)
Model
1
(Constant)
Gender (Female)
Habitat (Rural)
Age
Religion (Muslim)
Education
Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
1.319
.027
-.093
.008
-.057
.009
.002
.000
.062
.011
.052
.002
Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
-.083
-.049
.045
.045
.185
Sig.
.000
.000
.000
.000
.000
.000
Model Summary
R
.217
R Square
.047
Adjusted
R Square
.047
Std. Error of
the Estimate
.54511
The dependent variable (demand for democracy) is an average index of support for democracy
and rejection of three authoritarian alternatives (military, one-party and one-man rule).
It measures the depth of popular commitments to a democratic regime.
Figure 14: Explaining the Perceived Extent of
Democracy:
Formal Institutions versus Informal Ties, 2005
Multiple Regression (OLS)
Model
1
(Constant)
Free and Fair Elections
Trust in the President
Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
1.318
.021
.356
.007
.200
.007
Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
.427
.242
t
63.233
49.247
27.910
Sig.
.000
.000
.000
Model Summary
Model
1
R
.575 a
R Square
.330
Adjusted
R Square
.330
Std. Error of
the Estimate
.767
a. Dependent Variable: EXTENT OF DEMOCRACY
Source: Individual-level data, Afrobarometer Round 3 for original 12 Afrobarometer countries
(n = 17,917 unweighted, 14,400 weighted)
Adjusted R square for all 18 R3 countries = .287
(Beta = .396 for free and fair elections. Beta = .239 for trust in president)
Figure 15: Explaining the Extent of Democracy:
Formal versus Informal Predictors
100
90
80
70
64
59
60
50
40
41
30
36
20
10
0
Circa 2000
Circa 2005
Formal Institution (Free and Fair Elections)
Informal Tie (Trust the President)
Percentage share of explained variance in extent of democracy accounted for by
each predictor
12 original Afrobarometer countries (Round 1, N = 21,531; Round 3, N = 17,917)
“In your opinion, how much of a democracy is (your country) today?”
Figure 16: Support for Democratic Institutions:
Average Trends, 16 African Countries, 2002-2005
85
80
79
81
75
74
70
65
61
60
55
66
65
63
55
50
circa 2002
Support open elections
Support legislative independence
circa 2005
Support multiple parties
Support judicial review
Percentage approving democratic side of forced choice statements (see text
for wordings)
Figure 17: Formal Institutions:
Popular Demand versus Perceived Supply, 18 African Countries, 2005
100
90
81
80
66
65
63
70
60
47
46
50
41
36
40
30
20
10
0
Elections that remove
leaders
President subject to
rule of law
Persons who want this institution
A representative
legislature
Peaceful multiparty
competition
Persons who think this institution is provided
Percentage approving democratic side of forced choice statements (see text for wordings)
Figure 18: Indicators of Informal Institutions:
18 African Countries, 2005
100
90
64
80
62
70
60
43
50
40
30
20
10
0
Clientelism
Corruption
Presidentialism
Percent Who Acknowledge this Informal Institution
Clientelism: Average construct of agreement with two items:
1.
“In our country these days, we should show more respect for authority.”
2.
“Once in office, leaders are obliged to help their home community”
Corruption: “How many of the following people do you think are involved in corruption?
Members of parliament/National assembly deputies? Elected local government councilors?
Presidentialism: How much do you trust each of the following? The President?
Figure 19: Explaining the Extent of Democracy:
Comparing Formal and Informal Institutions, 2005
a
Multiple Regression (OLS)
Model
1
Unstandardized
Coefficients
B
Std. Error
2.627
.038
(Constant)
FORMAL INSTITUTIONS
Elections that remove leaders
Peaceful multiparty competition
A representative legislature
President subject to rule of law
INFORMAL INSTITUTIONS
Clientelism
Corruption
Trust in the President
Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
t
69.910
Sig.
.000
.021
.006
.033
3.455
.001
-.028
.081
-.064
.005
.006
.006
-.045
.121
-.097
-5.366
12.481
-10.947
.000
.000
.000
027
.006
.033
-4.149
.000
-.131
.203
.009
.007
-.121
.255
-14.126
28.679
.000
.000
a. Dependent Variable: EXTENT OF DEMOCRACY
Model Summary
Model
1
R
.433
R Square
.187
Adjusted
R Square
.187
Std. Error of
the Estimate
.798
Source: Individual-level data, Afrobarometer Round 3
(n = 25,397 unweighted, 21,600 weighted, across 18 countries)
www.afrobarometer.org
The Arab Barometer Team
• Jordan: Center for Strategic Studies
• Palestine: Center for Policy and Survey
Research
• Morocco: Hassan II University-Mohammadia
• Algeria: University of Algiers
• Kuwait: Kuwait University
• Yemen: Yemen Interactions
• Lebanon: Statistics Lebanon
• United States: University of Michigan (PI),
Princeton University (co-PI)
Thinking about Governance and
Democracy in the Arab World
2006 Arab Human Development Report: Deficit
of Freedom. “Viewed from the perspective of
freedom and good governance, it is difficult to
describe subsequent events in the Arab arena as the
kind of widespread, thorough-going reform for
which the report called…despite the growing winds
of protest against governments and the intensifying
demands for radical reform around the Arab
world.”
Support for Democracy Has Consistently Been
High in All Muslim Arab Countries Surveyed
All
Countries
Jordan
Palestine
Algeria
Morocco
Kuwait
Despite
drawbacks,
democracy is
the best system
of government
86%
N=5,740
86%
N=1143
83%
N=1270
83%
N=1300
92%
N=1277
88%
N=750
Having a
democratic
system of
government in
our country
would be good
90%
N=5,740
93%
N=1143
88%
N=1270
81%
N=1300
96%
N=1277
93%
N=750
2006 Surveys
Support for Democracy Is High among
More as well as Less Religious Persons
Frequency of Reading the Quran
2006
Everyday
several
times a
week
Sometimes
rarely
never
despite
All
Countries
86%
86%
86%
85%
90%
drawbacks,
Jordan
87%
85%
85%
84%
83%
Palestine
85%
83%
80%
78%
93%
Algeria
80%
82%
85%
80%
90%
Morocco
90%
94%
95%
93%
90%
Kuwait
87%
89%
90%
86%
86%
Agree that
democracy
is the best
system of
government
What Qualities Are
Important in the
Despite Its Problems, Democracy
Spouse of Your Son
Is the Best Political System
or Daughter?
Jordan 2006
Palestine 2006
That S/he Prays Is:
Strongly
Agree/
Agree
Disagree/
Strongly
Disagree
Strongly Disagree/
Agree/ Strongly
Agree
Disagree
Very Important
53
59
56
62
Somewhat Important
26
25
24
20
8
6
9
7
13
10
11
11
A little Important
Not Important
Why Does the Arab World Lag Behind?
What Do Ordinary Citizens Think
Internal reasons
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
32
27
44
40
33
33
32
29
23
14
12
Algeria
External reasons
Jordan
Morocco
12
9
Kuwait
23
Palestine
Yemen
Lebanon
Do People Think the is U.S. Helping?
To What Extent Do You Agree or Disagree with the Following Statement?
“U.S. Democracy Promotion Policies toward Arab Countries Are Good”
Strongly Agree/Agree
Strongly Disagree/Disagree
70
60
50
40
66
63
30
66
53
52
20
29
33
32
26
21
10
0
Jordan
Palestine
Algeria
Kuwait
Lebanon
Understanding and Support of
Democracy Are Often Instrumental
2006
Jordan
The most important characteristics of democracy
 Opportunity to change government=20%
 Freedom to criticize government=19%
 Reduce income gap between rich and poor=30%
 Provide basic necessities like food=31%
 Opportunity to change government=34%
 Freedom to criticize government=24%
Palestine
 Reduce income gap between rich and poor=13%
 Provide basic necessities like food=29%
Algeria
 Opportunity to change government=28%
 Freedom to criticize government=22%
 Reduce income gap between rich and poor=30%
 Provide basic necessities like food=20%
People Are Divided about the Role of Religion in Government
To What Extent Do you Agree or Disagree with the Following Statement?
“Religious Practice Is a Private Matter and Should Be Separated from Socio-Political Life”
Strongly Agree/Agree
Strongly Disagree/Disagree
70
60
50
40
30
20
64
58
42
48
52
52
48
59
54
46
51
49
41
36
10
0
Jordan
Palestine
Algeria
Morocco
Kuwait
Iraq
Yemen
Influence of Religious, Cultural and Political Orientations, Expressed as
Probability of the Null Hypothesis, on “Religious Practice Is a Private Matter
and Should Be Separated from Socio-Political Life” (H0 if p > .050)
Items from Surveys in 2006
Religiosity: How often do you read the
Jordan
Palestine
Algeria
Morocco
Kuwait
.871
.305
.106
.715
.343
.629
.241
.484
.753
.635
.350
.000
.000
.004
.707
.008
.087
.037
.099
.050
.955
.267
.494
.060
.001
Quran? Everyday or almost, Several times a
week, Sometimes, Rarely, Not at all
Culture: A university education is more
important for a boy than a girl. Strongly
Agree, Agree, Disagree, Strongly Disagree
Political Discontent: Using a 10-point
scale, where 1 means very dissatisfied and 10
means very satisfied, indicate how satisfied
you are with the performance of the current
(Jordanian) government
Political Discontent: Our political leaders
care about ordinary citizens. Strongly Agree,
Agree, Disagree, Strongly Disagree
External Interference: Some people have
said that the Arab world lags behind other
regions. Which of the following statements do
you most agree with? It is because of
Domestic factors, Both Domestic and
International factors, International factors
Disagreement about the Political Role of
Islam Is Equally Pronounced among People
Who Do and Do Not Favor Democracy
Men of Religion Should Have No Influence in
Government Decisions (Jordan 2006)
Strong Agree/Agree
Disagree/Strong Disagree
40.9%
44.4%
Secular
Democracy
Democracy
with Religion
7.3%
7.5%
Secular
Non-Democracy
Religious System
without Democracy
Democracy Is the Best
Very Strong/
Strong
Political System
Somewhat Strong/
Not Strong
Despite Its Problems
Strongly Agree or Agree that
Democracy, Despite Its Drawbacks,
Is the Best Political System
2006 Surveys
All Countries
Jordan
Palestine
Algeria
Morocco
Kuwait
Strongly
agree/Agree that
men of religion
should influence
government
decisions
54%
52%
55%
58%
63%
39%
Strongly
disagree/Disagree that
men of religion should
influence government
decisions
46%
48%
45%
42%
37%
61%
Percent Agreeing with Statement
about Democratic Values
2006
Surveys
It is (very)
important to have
political leaders
who are open to
different political
opinions
Does not
mind having
neighbors of
a different
race
Agree that Men
and women
should have
equal job
opportunities
and wages.
All
Countries
Secular Democracy
95 (50)
86
76
Islamic Democracy
95 (63)
82
70
Jordan
Secular Democracy
94 (53)
79
66
Islamic Democracy
92 (54)
67
66
Secular Democracy
96 (58)
NA
79
Islamic Democracy
97 (61)
NA
72
Secular Democracy
95 (60)
83
71
Islamic Democracy
96 (66)
80
57
Secular Democracy
93 (62)
94
78
Islamic Democracy
95 (64)
89
77
Secular Democracy
96 (64)
88
85
Islamic Democracy
98 (71)
92
84
Palestine
Algeria
Morocco
Kuwait
Binary Logistic Regression Models Estimating Support
for Secularism among Persons Who Support Democracy
2006 Surveys
(*** p H0 < .001)
All
Countries
Reads Quran
more often
.030
(.029)
-.107
(.072)
.034
(.061)
-.074
(.076)
-.021
(.057)
-.027
(.107)
Higher trust in
prime minister
.190
(.032)***
.212
(.084)***
.334
(.064)***
.152
(.085)
-.092
(.069)
.318
(.102)***
Citizens have power to
influence government
-.106
(.038)***
-.471
(.093)***
-.350
(.088)***
-.146
(.084)
-.017
(.081)
.635
(.144)***
Democracies not good
at maintaining order
-.135
(.042)***
-.340
(.100)***
-.264
(.090)***
-.248
(.099)***
.244
(.104)***
-.330
(.129)***
Higher
education
.051
(.033)
.070
(.091)
.015
(.077)
-.037
(.100)
.026
(.081)
.065
(.099)
Older
age
.058
(.029)*
.142
(.068)*
-.011
(.059)
.062
(.081)
.107
(.067)
-.031
(.072)
Less favorable family
economic situation
-.074
(.046)
-.112
(.068)
.036
(.087)
.014
(.131)
-.217
(.114)*
.707
(.195)***
Constant
-.328
(.240)
-2.267
(.568)***
-.853
(.525)
-1.100
(.672)
.094
(.594)
.334
(.754)
Jordan
Palestine
Algeria
Morocco
Kuwait
Presentation to Press and Others in Morocco