Forex Weekly – Identifying Trade
Opportunities with Jimmy Young
Last week Apr 20th – Apr 24th, 2015
GBP (strongest)
 Strengthened after Wednesday’s hawkish MPC minutes
NZD (weakest)
 Weakened after Thursday’s dovish Central bank comments
OTHERS (neutral)
 CAD benefited from Monday’s hawkish Central bank comments but its gains
were tempered by a slightly lower oil price
 AUD reversed two days of decline following Wednesday’s higher than
expected CPI quarterly.
 CHF declined following a negative interest rate scare but quickly recovered
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Tier 1 and Tier 2 Scheduled Releases
Apr 27th – May 1st, 2015
Tier 1 Release Histories
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Indication
FUNDAMENTAL: Traders reaction to this coming Wednesday’s FOMC statement will
likely determine the direction of most of the major pairs. The key question is how much
further economy / higher interest rates driven USD strength is likely, given the recent
weakness in many of the key US economic indicators.
Other factors weighing on the USD versus the other key currencies include:
1. An unexpected bounce in commodity prices is benefiting AUD, NZD and CAD
2. The ECB’s upbeat European countries economic outlook is helping the EUR
3. Bank of England’s hawkish MPC minutes (next interest rate move will be up)
The short list of key fundamental factors to track this coming week includes:
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EUR – Greece
GBP – Election and GDP release
CAD – Oil
AUD – Iron Ore
NZD – Milk and Monetary policy statement
CHF – Negative interest rates
USD – FOMC statement and GDP
TECHNICAL: The weekly charts of the major pairs tell a story of on-going retracement:
From purely a technical perspective, there is no clear evidence of further USD strength
in the near term; my best guess is the USD retracement will continue this coming week.
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EURUSD
Trade View: NEUTRAL
TECHNICALS
 Consolidating; last two weeks has been positive
EUR FUNDAMENTALS BEARISH
 Bearish: QE, Greece
 Bullish: ECB President Draghi indicated Eurozone is doing better (Apr 18).
USD FUNDAMENTALS BULLISH
 Bullish: Interest rate hike expected in the summer or fall
 Bearish: Latest employment (Apr 3) and latest retail sales(Apr 14) were bearish
TIER 1 AND TIER 2 ECONOMIC NEWS
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GBPUSD
Trade View: BULLISH
TECHNICALS
 Retracing; increased 9 of 10 last days
GBP FUNDAMENTALS BULLISH
 Bullish: Economy strong; Hawkish MPC minutes (Apr 22)
 Bearish: Election uncertainty; CPI at zero (Apr 14); Retail sales bearish (Apr 23)
USD FUNDAMENTALS BULLISH
 Bullish: Interest rate hike expected in the summer or fall
 Bearish: Latest employment (Apr 3) and latest retail sales(Apr 14) were bearish
TIER 1 AND TIER 2 ECONOMIC NEWS
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AUDUSD
Trade View: BULLISH
TECHNICALS
 Retracing; one month high close on Friday
AUD FUNDAMENTALS BULLISH
 Bearish: Feb surprise interest rate cut. Iron ore prices have collapsed.
 Bullish: Bullish CPI (Apr 22); bullish employment (Apr 16); bullish retail (Apr 7)
USD FUNDAMENTALS BULLISH
 Bullish: Interest rate hike expected in the summer or fall
 Bearish: Latest employment (Apr 3) and latest retail sales(Apr 14) were bearish
TIER 1 AND TIER 2 ECONOMIC NEWS
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NZDUSD
Trade View: NEUTRAL
TECHNICALS
 Upswing
NZD FUNDAMENTALS NEUTRAL
 Bullish: High and steady interest rates
 Bearish: Dovish Central Bank (Apr 22); Negative CPI (Apr 19)
USD FUNDAMENTALS BULLISH
 Bullish: Interest rate hike expected in the summer or fall
 Bearish: Latest employment (Apr 3) and latest retail sales(Apr 14) were bearish
TIER 1 AND TIER 2 ECONOMIC NEWS
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USDCAD
Trade View: BEARISH
TECHNICALS
 Retracing further following a breakout below consolidation
CAD FUNDAMENTALS BULLISH
 Bearish: Feb surprise interest rate cut; oil price collapse (increasing lately)
 Bullish: Hawkish Central bank (Apr 19); bullish retail sales (Apr 15) higher than
expected (Apr 10); Employment report better than expected (Apr 10)
USD FUNDAMENTALS BULLISH
 Bullish: Interest rate hike expected in the summer or fall
 Bearish: Latest employment (Apr 3) and latest retail sales(Apr 14) were bearish
TIER 1 AND TIER 2 ECONOMIC NEWS
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USDJPY
Trade View: NEUTRAL
TECHNICALS
 Consolidating
JPY FUNDAMENTALS
 Neutral; Central bank monetary policy steady
USD FUNDAMENTALS
 Bullish: Interest rate hike expected in the summer or fall
 Bearish: Latest employment (Apr 3) and latest retail sales(Apr 14) were bearish
TIER 1 AND TIER 2 ECONOMIC NEWS
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This Week’s Trade Ideas Summary
Generally
 Bearish USD for the coming week
 Most recent economic news (employment, retail sales) casts doubts on the
strength of the US economy
 The economic story for many of the other currencies appears to be getting
somewhat better
 Major pair charts are reflecting this (USD retracing)
Specifically
 Bullish GBPUSD
o Bearish USD fundamentally and technically (one week or less view)
o Bullish GBP fundamentally and technically (one week or less view)
 Views might possibly change based upon this coming week’s news
releases and or price action
 Bullish AUDUSD
o Bearish USD fundamentally and technically (one week or less view)
o Bullish AUD fundamentally and technically (one week or less view)
 Views might possibly change based upon this coming week’s news
releases and or price action
 Bearish USDCAD
o Bearish USD fundamentally and technically (one week or less view)
o Bullish CAD fundamentally and technically (one week or less view)
 Views might possibly change based upon this coming week’s news
releases and or price action
Good luck
Best,
JIMMY
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