U.S. GLOBEC Northeast Pacific Program
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U.S. GLOBEC Northeast Pacific Program Program Overview Synthesis Goals Status Future This PPT is used to briefly describe the synthesis research activities of each of the funded NEP synthesis projects (for the November 2006 PanRegional Synthesis Meeting). It was compiled by Hal Batchelder and Nick Bond from materials provided by the SIs at various meetings. This material is provided for information purposes only—any use of unpublished material beyond the November PR meeting must be approved by the originating scientist. If you need assistance in identifying whom to contact regarding use of materials here, please email Hal Batchelder at hbatchelder@coas.oregonstate.edu NE PACIFIC GLOBEC - CORE HYPOTHESES I. Production regimes in the coastal Gulf of Alaska and California Current Systems co-vary, and are coupled through atmospheric and ocean forcing. II. Spatial and temporal variability in mesoscale circulation constitutes the dominant physical forcing on zooplankton biomass, production, distribution, species interactions and retention and loss in coastal regions. III. Ocean survival of salmon is primarily determined by survival of the juveniles in coastal regions, and is affected by interannual and interdecadal changes in physical forcing and by changes in ecosystem food web dynamics. Hobday and Boehlert (2001) Redrawn from Ware and McFarlane (1999) Coho salmon, Onchorhynchus kisutch, chosen as study species since populations (catch) span and vary inversely in CGOA and CCS, and US GLOBEC and other programs sample in both systems over multiple years. Salmon Life History Freshwater Coastal Shelf Regions Spawning Harvest Other Ocean Areas Adults Maturing Eggs Diseases/ Parasites Competitors Ocean Juveniles Juveniles Estuary Predators Climate Ocean Physics Food Supply Salmon Lifecycle Nutrients External Influence Courtesy of Ric Brodeur http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soi2.shtml ENSO Scale Variability Downwelling Upwelling Upwelling Event (Intraseasonal) Variability Pacific Decadal Oscillation Variability Pacific Decadal Oscill. Anomaly Patterns SST – colors SLP – contours Windstress - arrows Warm phase Cool phase U.S. GLOBEC Northeast Pacific Program Data Sources • Long-Term Observation Program • Stations • Along-track • Process Cruises • Stations • Along-track • Moorings • Time-series • Drifters • Time-series • Satellite • Time/Space Series • CODAR (CCS only) • Time/Space Series • Modeling • Idealized • Diagnostic Regional • Event driven mesoscale • Retrospective Analysis CCS Sampling Locations CGOA Sampling Locations GAK 1 GAK 4 GAK 9 GAK 13 Seward Line Nutrient Time Series Cleare Ocean Carrying Capacity – GLOBEC Trawl Survey Lines August 2001 NEP Field Work Timeline J F M A M J J A S O N D CGOA 1997-1999 2001 NOPP 2000 COAST 2003 2002 2005 2004 2006 BPA Trawling (1998-2006) CCS J F LTOP M A M Process Synthesis (2005-2009) J J A Trawl Sampling S O N D Trawl Survey NEP Effort Phase Start #Proj #PI Activity I Fall ‘97 14 49 Initial Activities IIa Fall ’99 20 60 Field CCS IIb Fall ‘00 14+1 45+3 Field CGOA IIIa Fall ‘04 9 46 Synthesis IIIb Fall ‘05 6+1 29+5 Synthesis NEP Web Site – http://globec.coas.oregonstate.edu/ CCS Synthesis Projects A1 Effects of Meso- and Basin-Scale Variability on Zooplankton Populations in the CCS using Data-Assimilative, Physical-Ecosystem Models - Haidvogel, Powell, Curchitser, Hermann, Allen, Egbert, Kurapov, Miller A2 Large-scale Influences on Mesoscale Structure in the CCS, A Synthesis of Climateforced Variability in Coastal Ecosystems - Schwing, Bograd, Mendelssohn, Palacios, Stegman, Strub, Thomas A3 Changing Ocean Conditions in Northern California Current-Effects on Primary Production and Salmon - Huyer, Kosro, Smith, Wheeler A4 Latitudinal variation of upwelling, retention, nutrient supply and freshwater effects in the California Current System - Kosro, Hickey, Ramp A5 Coupled physical-biological dynamics in the Northern California Current System: A Synthesis of Seasonal and Interannual Mesoscale Variability and its Links to Regional Climate Change - Cowles, Barth, Letelier, Spitz, Zhou A6 Synthesis of Euphausiid Population Dynamics, Production, Retention and Loss under Variable Climatic Conditions - Peterson, Batchelder A7 Juvenile Salmon Habitat Utilization in the Northern California Current-Synthesis and Prediction - Casillas, Batchelder, Peterson, Brodeur, Jacobson, Wainwright, Rau, Pearcy, Fisher, Teel, Beckman A8 Effects of climate variability on Calanus dormancy patterns and population dynamics within the California Current - Leising, Runge, Johnson A9 Scale-dependent Dynamics of Top Trophic Predators and Prey: Toward Predicting Predator Response to Climate Change - Tynan, Ainley CGOA Synthesis Projects B1 US GLOBEC Northeast Pacific Coordinating and Synthesis Office - Batchelder, Casillas B2 A synthesis of climate-forced variability on mesoscale structure in the CGOA with direct comparisons to the CCS - Thomas, Schwing, Bograd, Mendelssohn, Strub B3 Bottom-up control of lower-trophic variability: A synthesis of atmospheric, oceanic and ecosystem observations - Bond, Mordy, Napp, Stabeno B4 Habitat effects on feeding, condition, growth and survival of juvenile pink salmon in the northern Gulf of Alaska - Haldorson, Adkinson B5 Synthesis of biophysical observations at multiple trophic levels using spatially nested, dataassimilating models of the coastal Gulf of Alaska - Hermann, Stabeno, Hinckley, DiLorenzo, Rand, Moore, Powell B6 Modeling the effects of spatial-temporal environmental variability on stage-specific growth and survival of pink salmon in the coastal Gulf of Alaska - Beauchamp, Armstrong, Myers, Cokelet, Moss B7 Environmental influences on growth and survival of Southeast Alaska coho salmon in contrast with other Northeast Pacific regions - Botsford, Hastings, Bond, Batchelder, Wertheimer, Adkinson B8 Links between climate and planktonic food webs – Dagg, Strom, Hopcroft, Whitledge, Coyle Schwing Tynan Casillas Cowles/ Huyer/ Kosro Peterson/ Leising Haidvogel Top Predators Large-Scale – Mesoscale Thomas Moorings & Transport Bond Haldorson Salmon Habitat Seasonal/ Interannual Mesoscale Euphausiids Climate & Salmon Dagg Botsford/ Beauchamp Copepods Hermann BIOLOGY PHYSICS Batchelder Core Modeling Large-scale Influences on Mesoscale Structure in the CCS A Synthesis of Climate-forced Variability in Coastal Ecosystems A synthesis of climate-forced variability on mesoscale structure in the CGOA with direct comparisons to the CCS Schwing, Bograd, Mendelssohn, Palacios, Stegmann (SWFSC/ERD); Thomas (U Maine); Strub (OSU) Project Goals • characterize and compare relationship between basin-scale climate processes and mesoscale physical-ecosystem processes in CCS and CGOA • identify mechanisms by which basin-scale climate variability cascades down to local ecosystem scales • contrast differing CGOA & CCS ecosystem responses to same climate signals • develop indicators representing ecological influences of climate forcing • develop and operate data bases and servers Synthesis Questions Q1. How did CCS/CGOA mesoscale fields evolve during Field Programs in association with large-scale climate variability? • use correlative methods to characterize mesoscale variability and concurrent basin-scale conditions during Field Programs and extend these comparisons to a longer historical time period where possible. Q2. What are the mechanisms by which large-scale climate forcing cascades to mesoscale variability in CCS/CGOA? • build on correlational linkages between basin and mesoscale patterns of variability and identify possible mechanisms by which local ocean processes respond to climate variability. Q3. How does climate forcing of the CCS and GOA compare? • quantify and compare the relative impact of basin-scale variability on the CGOA and CCS. West Coast Upwelling Delayed and Weak • Onset of coastal upwelling typically in AprilMay; July 2005 in northern CC • Stronger upwelling in 2006, but May hiatus • Stronger upwelling late in season, total seasonal upwelling normal but delayed • Weaker upwelling in southern CC in 2005 & 2006 • Delayed upwelling in 2005 & 2006 unusual but not unprecedented Timing of upwelling and other processes very critical to many species’ reproductive success Illustrates ecosystem sensitivity to possible future climate extremes • • Six “Pipes” Define geostrophic surface velocities in broad channels, using the altimeter SSH along long rows of crossovers, to eliminate the “noise” caused by eddies and Rossby waves. Use tide gauges at the coast to define the SSH, to eliminate any coastal gap. This defines a north and south branch of the N. Pacific Current and broad regions of the California Current and Alaska Current System (Strub, unpublished) Large changes in the transports in the NPC were seen during the El Nino and especially during 2001-2004, when there was anomalous eastward transports. (Strub, unpublished) Anomalous chlorophyll in spring 2005: Monthly as a function of latitude – links to wind forcing Monthly Chlorophyll Monthly Ekman Transport climatology climatological variance 2005 2005 (anomalies) Spring negative Late-summer positive Large-scale switch from – to + From Thomas and Brickley (GRL, 2006) Changing Ocean Conditions in the Northern California Current: Objectives A. Huyer, P. M. Kosro, R. L. Smith, P. A. Wheeler COAS, Oregon State University - relate changing in situ phys & chem ocean conditions during 97-03 to primary production; - is interannual variability of phys & chem ocean conditions and primary production similar north and south of Cape Blanco? - do 97-03 seasonal averages & interannual variability of ocean conditions differ from 61-71? - relate present indices of ocean conditions to local in situ measures of the currents, water masses, nutrients, etc., & search for improved indices and measures. Progress Report: Changing Ocean Conditions in the Northern California Current Ocean Climate Variations Epoch-to-Epoch - average temperatures: winter & summer Year-to-Year - winter & summer T anomalies - water-mass changes (esp. in halocline) - ecosystem response Spatial Differences: NH, CR - midsummer - late summer - spring Specific Events - July 2002 Subduction Event Huyer project Coho Survival & Climate Indices, 1960-2003 TENOC LTOP Huyer project Bottom-up Control of Lower-trophic Variability: A Synthesis of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Ecosystem Observations Nick Bond, Cal Mordy, Jeff Napp, Phyllis Stabeno Plan of Attack • • • • • Atmospheric Forcing Local Properties vs. Climate Indices Along-shore Transport, Cross-shelf Exchange and Mixing Nutrient Budgets and New Production Mechanisms Controlling Zooplankton Bond project Winds Fluor. N+N Q ui ckW) Ti mde e ™ T IF F ( LZ co an m prdeass or a e r ne ed ed t o s ee th i s pi c tu r e. Velocity Salinity Bond project Time-Series Measurements “Latitudinal Variation of upwelling, retention, nutrient supply and freshwater effects in the California Current System” M. Kosro, B. Hickey, R. Letelier, S. Ramp A. Mesoscale variability and its alongshore variation, 42-48N, from synthesis of moored (u,v,T,S,chl), HF surface currents, hydrography, and remote sensing. B. Relate physical variability to primary production, zooplankton distributions, and salmon year-class strength. Alongshore variability of upwelling, nutrients, eddies, etc. Interannual variability Relation to higher trophic levels (collaborative with other groups) Kosro project Temperature and Salinity Near Bottom from WA to Southern OR Kosro project Pink Salmon: Modeling Environmental Effects on Growth & Survival Dave Beauchamp & Alison Cross UW-USGS:Washington Cooperative Fisheries & Wildlife Research Unit Kate Myers, Jan Armstrong, Nancy Davis, Trey Walker UW School of Aquatic and Fisheries Sciences UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON Jamal Moss, NOAA-Auke Bay Lab Ned Cokelet, NOAA-PMEL Lew Haldorson, Jennifer Boldt, Jack Piccolo University of Alaska-Juneau Scales can be used to estimate growth history Ocean Growth and Size-Selective Mortality 1000 800 600 2001-2002 S = 3% 400 scale radius ~ fish length circulus spacing ~ growth rate 0 800 2002-2003 S = 9% 600 Scale Radius (m) Prince William Sound Pink Salmon -Survivors grow faster than “average” juveniles during first summer Ocean growth Juveniles Pooled Adults 200 400 OCC Adults Observer Adults 200 0 800 2003-2004 S = 3% 600 -Timing and magnitude of divergent growth between average and surviving Juveniles vary among years 400 200 0 800 600 -Size-at-age higher for higher survival years Pooled Adults 2004-2005 S = 8% AFK Adults CCH Adults SGH Adults WNH Adults 400 200 0 Source-Alison Cross, 0 UW High Seas Salmon Group, Jamal Moss, Lew Haldorson 5 10 Circulus 15 20 Survival, Growth, Distribution, Diet & Feeding Rate 60 Wt (g) 50 40 Avg summer Feeding rate: Critical Period 2002,2004 85-100% of Cmax 2003 2001 30 S=3% 20 65-85% Cmax 10 0 1.0 Diet Proportion by Wt S=8-9% PWS PWS-ACC-TRANS TRANS 0.5 1.0 PWS TRANS TRANS-dispersed 2002 Hi Surv 0.5 1.0 2001 Fish Euphausiid Hyperiid Pteropod Larvacean Copepod PWS PWS-TRANS PWS Jul Aug Jul Aug ACC-TRANS 2003 0.5 0.0 1.0 TRANS 0.5 Juveniles Sep dispersed beyond sampling area 0.0 Sep 2004 Hi Surv GROWTH: Larger juveniles = Higher survival DISTRIBUTION: Higher survival = Earlier, wider dispersal during Aug-Sep DIET: Diet highly variable among months & Years. Non-Crustaceans Important. Feeding rate higher During High Survival Years— Suggests higher prey availability Jamal Moss, Lew Haldorson, unpub. Synthesis of Euphausiid Population Dynamics, Production, Retention and Loss under Variable Climatic Conditions William T. Peterson, NMFS, NWFSC, Newport Harold P. Batchelder, Oregon State University Why euphausiids? • • • • • Everyone eats them Numbers and rates highly variable in time and space Therefore, variations in euphausiid abundance may explain variations in species dependent upon them (e.g., salmon, hake, herring, marine birds) Euphausiids now incorporated into the Coastal Pelagics Fisheries Management Plan; need to collect data on an going basis, on rates & biomass to properly manage them. Will develop indices that track interannual variations in euphausiid biomass and productivity Peterson project Research Activities 1. Synthesis of target zooplankton abundance and distribution a) Seasonal and Interannual variability of nutrients, chlorophyll and ZP b) Variability of Euphausiid spawning season c) Spatial variations in euphausiid distribution and abundance 2. Processes that affect abundance and distribution a) Stage structure and mortality rates b) Egg production c) Development time and molting rates d) Growth and production 3. Physical-biological modeling a) Population dynamics using IBM’s b) Cross-shelf zonation, retention and loss 4. Future Expansion -- PIRE: The Year of the Euphausiid—Comparative Life History of North Pacific Krill in Shelf and Slope Waters Around the Pacific Rim (proposed, incl. Aust., Kor, Japan, China, Canada, Mexico) Peterson project Effects of climate variability on Calanus dormancy patterns and population dynamics within the California Current Andrew W. Leising NOAA-SWFSC-ERD 1352 Lighthouse Ave. Pacific Grove, CA 93950 Andrew.leising@noaa.gov Jeffrey Runge, and Catherine Johnson University of New Hampshire Ocean Process Analysis Laboratory Morse Hall 39 College Road Durham, NH 03824 With a lot of help from: Bill Peterson, NOAA; Dave Mackas, IOS; Bruce Frost, UW Leising project Project Goals: • Determine the most likely factors (biological and physical) that control the dormancy response of Calanus pacificus and Calanus marshallae – These two copepod species often dominate the biomass of macrozooplankton, and are warm/cold indicators – Surprisingly, dormancy triggers remain unknown • Use this information to more accurately model the population response and sensitivity of these species to climate change • Produce a coastwide index of relative population abundance and production of these two species Leising project Appearance/Dormancy Timing in Relation to Upwelling Upwelling Gradient (ave of difference between ±5, 10 and 15 days) on the date of Calanus marshallae and C. pacificus entry and exit from dormancy at NH5 8 Increasing Upwelling C. C. C. C. Upwelling Gradient 6 4 marshallae - Exit marshallae - Entrance pacif icus - Exit pacif icus - Entrance 2 0 1965 -2 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 -4 -6 -8 Decreasing Upwelling Date C. marshallae almost always wakes up from dormancy during periods of increasing upwelling, and enters dormancy during periods of decreasing upwelling Leising project Habitat effects on feeding, condition, growth and survival of juvenile pink salmon in the northern Gulf of Alaska P.I.s: Lew Haldorson and Milo Adkison School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences University of Alaska Fairbanks This work directly addresses NE PACIFIC GLOBEC CORE HYPOTHESES III. Ocean survival of salmon is primarily determined by survival of the juveniles in coastal regions, and is affected by interannual and interdecadal changes in physical forcing and by changes in ecosystem food web dynamics. Haldorson project Synthesis Research: I. Compile a comprehensive data set on pink salmon - 4 projects A. LTOP and Process Studies - U. of Alaska B. Ocean Carrying Capacity (OCC) - NFMS, Auke Bay Lab. C. PWS Juvenile Pink Salmon Monitoring - ADF&G, Cordova D. SE Alaska Monitoring Project - NMFS, Auke Bay Lab. II. Examine salmon response variable by year, season, habitat A. Short term - Feeding Intensity (SCI) B. Medium term - Condition (L/W residuals, energy content) C. Long term - Growth (Hatchery fish, exponential, bioenergetic) D. Examine response variable in upper size-based quantiles III. Identify characteristics of habitats associated with positive or negative performance of salmon response variables. A. Temperature B. Stratification C. Zooplankton 1. Direct sampling - process, LTOP, OCC 2. Salmon diets Haldorson project Juvenile Salmon Habitat Utilization in the Northern California Current – Synthesis and Prediction PI’s – Casillas, Batchelder, Peterson, Brodeur, Jacobson AI’s – Wainwright, Rau, Pearcy, Fisher, Teel, Beckman Principle Hypotheses/Objectives • Habitat for juvenile salmon can be characterized by suite of physical and biological variables (e.g. temperature, salinity, stratification, prey and predator distribution & abundance, etc) • Fine-scale habitat characteristics can be related to meso- to regionalscale ocean features that can be used to construct a ‘salmon ocean habitat index’ to provide near-term prediction of salmon success Casillas project Example: Logistic Regression Analysis on Presence/Absence; Only statistically significant coefficients shown. Predictor Chinook Coho 0.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 Chlorophyll - 0.13 -0.14 -0.19 -0.095 -0.36 Depth 0.0044 0.0054 0.0234 0.0046 0.012 Temperature - 0.22 -0.31 Subyearling Chinook: Absence accuracy: 100% Presence accuracy: 17% Overall: 87% Yearling Chinook: Absence accuracy: 80% Presence accuracy: 75% Overall: 79% Subadult Chinook: Absence accuracy: 79% Presence accuracy: N/A* Overall: 79% Yearling coho Absence accuracy: 4% Presence accuracy: 100% Overall: 33%** Subadult coho Absence accuracy: 88% Presence accuracy: 100% Overall: 89% Bi, Ruppel, and Peterson, Submitted. Presence/Absence and environmental data from June 1998-2004 cruises used to specify model; Data from June 2005 held in reserve for testing. Casillas project What are we doing for management? • • • • Our approach: continue long-term time series. THIS IS CRITICAL! Need indices based on biological variables, measured on cruises, at the same times-places as the stocks being managed Developed indices that (so far) predict returns of coho salmon one year in advance; they work because survival is set during the first summer at sea. Supported chiefly by the FATE program (Fisheries and the Environment). – Northern copepod index – Spring Transition Index • Logerwell • Peterson (biological spring transition) – Salmon catches on our Bonneville-funded juvenile salmonid surveys • Coho catches in September predict returns following year • Spring Chinook catches in June predict returns 2-3 years later Will develop indices based on euphausiids—using easily measured variables (= egg abundances, ratio of eggs/larvae; adult abundances). Casillas project Juvenile migration year MEI Coastal upwelling Physical spring transition Deep water temp. & salinity Local biological indicators Copepod biodiversity Northern copepod anomalies Biological spring transition Spring Chinook--June Coho--September Key Coho Chinook 2004 2005 (to June) 2006 2007 ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ● ● ● ● ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ● ● ● ● ● ● ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● Local and regional physical indicators Sea surface temperature 2006 2000 Large-scale ocean and atmospheric indicators PDO Forecast of adult returns ? ? ■ ■ ? ■ good conditions for salmon marine survival ● good returns expected ■ intermediate conditions for salmon marine survival ■ poor conditions for salmon marine survival ● poor returns expected Casillas project http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/climatechange.cfm Environmental influences on growth and survival of Southeast Alaska coho salmon in contrast with other Northeast Pacific regions Milo Adkison, U.Alaska, Juneau Hal Batchelder, Oregon State U. Nick Bond, NOAA, U.W. Loo Botsford, U.C., Davis Alan Hastings, U.C., Davis Alex Wertheimer, N.M.F.S. Auke Bay Unfunded Collaborator: Marc Trudel (DFO-Canada) Focus on coho salmon, Oncorhynchus kisutch, which does covary out of phase, in CGOA and CCS. Compare on regional (100s of km) to basin scales. Botsford project Hypotheses H1. Alaska coho salmon survival depends positively on conditions favoring biological productivity.[RETRO, CWT, LOCIND] H2. Alaska coho salmon survival depends on variability in mortality rate due to varying predator buffering by other salmon species.[RETRO, CWT] H3. Survival of coho salmon is determined by availability and spatial arrangement of high quality habitat during early ocean life. [FIELD, IBM] H4. A single model of early growth and survival can explain coho salmon population response to the environment throughout the NEP from the CCS through the CGOA. [CWT, RETRO] Project Components FIELD – coho occurrence, abundance, growth vs. physical/biological IBM – Growth/survival in space/time; including movement/habitat selection RETRO – Expand Auke Creek analysis spatially to examine predator/competitor effects LOCIND – Develop indices of local physical state, e.g., wind stress curl, MLD CWT – Reanalysis of CWT data; fit CGOA and CCS CWT to early life history model with variable grwoth, survival on regional scale Botsford project U.S. GLOBEC Nested Model Domains NEP Coho Salmon Region Botsford project How well do the ROMS NEP physics match our perception and data from the real NEP ocean? 1) Compare SSH from the model with altimetry 1) Large scale climatology 2) Seasonality 2) Compare SST 3) Compare Subsurface Temperatures 4) California Undercurrent Strength/Posn/Variability 5) Interannual Variability in Strength of the Alaskan Gyre Circulation and Bifurcation of the North Pacific Current (particle tracking) Botsford project Climatological Dynamic Height from Strub and James (2002) 1958-2004 Climatologial SSH from Model Batchelder unpub. 1961-75 Note: Left panel is May only; Right is Annual +PDO From Schwing et al. (2002) 1978-96 -PDO The 1976-77 Regime Shift SST Patterns Batchelder unpub. Northward Velocity – Newport Line - July 1997 2000 1998 1999 7-8 July 2000 Well defined core of CUC in 1997, 1998, 2000; close to slope 2002 9-11 July 2002 Weaker, more diffuse CUC in 1999 & 2002; not adjacent to slope Batchelder unpub. Coupled Physical-Biological Dynamics in the Northern CCS: A Mesoscale Synthesis of Seasonal and Interannual Mesoscale Variability Tim Cowles OSU Jack Barth OSU Ricardo Letelier OSU Yvette Spitz OSU Meng Zhou U Mass Steve Pierce, Chris Wingard, Amanda Ashe, Julie Keister, Di Wu, Amanda Whitmire Cowles project We have two primary objectives determine the contribution of variability in mesoscale physical forcing and ocean dynamics to the variability in ecosystem dynamics, as expressed by phytoplankton and zooplankton abundance, spatial pattern, size distribution and indices of production; extend this mesoscale understanding across a larger spatial domain and across longer time scales through the use of coupled models, satellite remote sensing observations, and collaboration with other GLOBEC synthesis teams. These overall objectives will be addressed through a set of linked, interdisciplinary analyses of Spatial Pattern, Ecosystem Function, and Mesoscale to Regional Linkages Cowles project Links between climate and planktonic food webs (Funded in September 2006) Mike Dagg (LUMCON) Suzanne Strom (Western Washington Univ) Ken Coyle (UAF) Russ Hopcroft (UAF) Terry Whitledge (UAF) Dagg Project Synthesis Goals (1) (1) Describe planktonic food web: - Controls on amount and type of primary production - Controls on fraction of pp to higher tropic levels, esp Neocalanus, euphausiids and mucous net feeders - Develop statistical relationships from field data for refining our 1-D ecosystem model Initially this will be done with data from the 3 process cruises in 2001 and 2 process cruises in 2003 (our most data-intense years) Dagg Project Synthesis Goals (2) (2) Expand to conditions during LTOP years (1998-2004), then to multi-decadal time scale: - Describe ecosystem throughout LTOP years - Determine best indicators of cross shelf zonation, - Determine most important factors for spring bloom: timing and magnitude nutrient patterns (incl Fe) phytoplankton community - Determine factors affecting microzooplankton and mesozooplankton abundance and distribution Dagg Project Synthesis Goals (3) (3) Combine environmental descriptions for each year (2) with foodweb processes (1) to develop a general understanding of ecosystem processes and controls, including consequences of system structure for Neocalanus, euphausiids and juvenile pink salmon, incl: - Add mucous net feeders to NPZ model - Compare NPZ model parameterizations with empirical relationships - Run 1-D model with different physical conditions - Compare modeled PP with empirical - Link modeled mucous-net feeders to pink salmon. Dagg Project Scale-dependent Dynamics of Top Trophic Predators and Prey: Toward Predicting Predator Response to Climate Change C. Tynan and D. Ainley 1) predictive biophysical model of factors affecting top–predator distribution, based on 2000 data and tested using 2002 data; 2) foraging model; 3) prey depletion model; 4) model of energy and carbon flow through top-predators. T5m CohoJ ChinJ Humpys Chl CopB BirdB Batchelder et al. (2002) GLOBEC NEP Core Modeling Projects Effects of Meso- and Basin-Scale Variability on Zooplankton Populations in the CCS using DataAssimilative, Physical-Ecosystem Models Haidvogel, Powell, Curchitser, Hermann, Allen, Egbert, Kurapov, Miller Synthesis of biophysical observations at multiple trophic levels using spatially nested, data-assimilating models of the coastal Gulf of Alaska Hermann, Stabeno, Hinckley, DiLorenzo, Rand, Moore, Powell Core Model Projects Spatially nested biophysical models NCEP/MM5 -> ROMS/NPZ -> IBM Core Model Projects Selected Research Components •Physical modeling and DA (HF radar) for the coastal CCS (focus on 2000 and 2002) •Comparison of NCOM model to GLOBEC CCS data (nesting evaluation) •4DVAR DA using IROMS •40+ year runs of NPac and NEP domains; shorter runs of CGOA and CCS grids •Use CCSM (Community Climate System Model) forcing to downscale climate projections to regional domains •NEP-wide ecosystem model (needed by many other projects) •Model/Data comparisons •Sensitivity Studies Core Model Projects Objectives 1.Obtain high quality model estimates for the physical fields in the region of the GLOBEC field experiments off the Oregon coast during the 2000 and 2002 summer months of May– August. 2.Determine the important physical dynamics in the region of the GLOBEC field experiment through synthesis of model results and observational data (in collaboration with other GLOBEC PIs). Approach Oregon CTZ A 3 km coastal model based on the (ROMS) ROMS is being nested in the Navy Coastal Ocean Model–California Current System (NCOM–CCS) regional model. NCOM-CCS is a 9 km data assimilating model which is nested in a global 1/8o data assimilating model. The ROMS model domain includes the Coastal Transition Zone (CTZ) and the region of the GLOBEC field experiments. Core Model Projects California Current System (NCOMCCS) Global (NCOM ) Evaluate Oregon CTZ model Oregon CTZ model was initialized on April 1st, 2002 and simulated the circulation to Aug 31st (153 days). Model-Data comparisons and dynamical analyses are in progress. Newport Hydrography Line 2002-07-10 (Huyer) Data Assimilation Assimilation of Sea Surface Height from satellite altimeter measurements and Surface Currents from long range HF radar measurements is planned. Core Model Projects Cross-shelf total phyt (x-z plot) Mar-Jun ave: w/ Felim or PS -> lower total phyt offshore Model w/ ONLY PL z Model w/ PL + PS dist offshore Model w/ Felim NNPZDFe NNPPZZDFe Shelf break Model w/o Felim Core Model Projects NNPZD NNPPZZD Recent/Future NEP Activities • CGOA Gap-filling Opportunity • Goal: “to integrate estimates of in situ zooplankton abundances, their condition, and reproductive rates” in the CGOA • Must be integrated with models and make connections to juvenile salmon • Focus on ZP community structure, composition • 1 project funded: NEP Phase IIIb-CGOA: Links between climate and planktonic food webs“, PI - Michael Dagg; Co-PI’s: Russell Hopcroft, University of Alaska (includes Terry Whitledge and Ken Coyle) & Suzanne Strom, Western Washington University • Next NEP SI meeting • 8-10 January 2007 (Seattle) • Next NEP Special Journal Issue – 15 April 2007 Target Date for MS submissions Future NEP Activities (continued) • Venues for Presentations of NEP Results • Near-past • ASLO Summer 2006 (Victoria, BC, 5-9 June) • Time Series of the NEP (Victoria, CAN, 5-8 July 2006) •Invited talks by Wheeler, Weingartner, Schwing • EPOC2006 (Timberline Lodge, Portland, 27-30 Sep) •2. Integrated Regional Oceanography using in-situ and remote observations and models •4. Multidisciplinary Modeling • PICES 2006 (Yokohama, JPN, 16-20 October) • Future • AGU Fall Mtg (SF, 11-15 Dec) • ASLO Aq. Sci. Mtg. (Santa Fe, 4-9 Feb 2007) • 4th Intl. ZP Prod Symp. (Hiroshima, JPN, 28 May-1 June 2007) • 2007 PICES Mtg (Victoria, BC, October) • 2008 Ocean Sci. Mtg (Orlando, 2-7 Mar) • Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans (Gijon, Spain, May 2008) Future NEP Activities (continued) • Future Research Activities in the Northeast Pacific • PICES FUTURE (Forecasting and Understanding Trends, Uncertainty and Responses of the North Pacific Ecosystem) • New integrative science program of PICES (North Pacific Marine Science Organization); to eventually replace the Climate Change and Carrying Capacity (CCCC) Integrative Science Program • Timeline is to have the FUTURE Science Plan completed by October 2007; CCCC ramp down; FUTURE ramp up in 2008. • NOAA Climate and California Current Ecosystems • Scoping workshop held 14-16 Nov 2006 in La Jolla, CA • Overall goals are fairly similar to GLOBEC NEP goals: Understand climate driven changes to enable societal response • GLOBEC participants on organizing committee: Barth, Batchelder, Peterson, Strub • Many other GLOBEC NEP SI’s attended (ca. 50 participants overall) • Science Plan to be developed by March 2007 for NOAA Fisheries (Murawski) and NOAA Climate (Koblinsky) programs.
