M. Amann, J. Cofala, Z. Klimont
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
The potential for further reductions
of PM emissions
in Europe
Contents
• CAFE baseline emission projections
• Scope for further technical and non-technical
reductions of primary PM emissions
• How do measures directed at PM10 affect PM2.5?
• Cost-optimized reductions to reduce ambient
PM2.5 concentrations in Europe
CAFE baseline emission projections
175%
150%
150%
125%
125%
100%
100%
75%
75%
50%
50%
25%
25%
0%
0%
Austria
Cyprus
Total EU-15
UK
Sweden
Spain
Portugal
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Italy
Ireland
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Denmark
National inventory
RAINS estimate
Total NMS
Slovenia
Slovakia
Poland
Malta
Lithuania
Latvia
Hungary
Estonia
Czech Rep.
Cyprus
Total EU-15
UK
Sweden
Spain
Portugal
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Italy
Ireland
Greece
Germany
France
Finland
Denmark
Belgium
Austria
Total NMS
Slovenia
Slovakia
Poland
Malta
Lithuania
Latvia
Hungary
Estonia
Czech Rep.
PM10
175%
Belgium
RAINS PM emission estimates
vs. national inventories, 2000
PM2.5
CAFE emission baseline
With climate measures” baseline projection, EU-25
175%
150%
150%
125%
125%
100%
100%
75%
75%
50%
50%
25%
25%
0%
2000
0%
2000
GDP
2005
2010
2015
2020
GDP
Primary energy use
CO2
2005
2010
2015
2020
SO2
NOx
VOC
NH3
PM2.5
GDP
Primary
GDP energy
GDP
Primary
GDP
Primary
use
energy
GDP
Primary
energy
use
Primary
CO2
energy
use
Primary
energy
CO2
use
SO2
energy
CO2
use SO2
CO2
use
NOxCO2
SO2 NOx
SO2
VOC
NOx VOC
PM2.5
Scope for further technical emission reductions
Main emission control options for PM
850 options considered in RAINS
Removal efficiency
Large stationary boilers
Electrostatic precipitators (3 stages)
Fabric filters
Industrial boilers and furnaces
Cyclones
Electrostatic precipitators
Fabric filters
Good housekeeping (oil boilers)
Residential and commercial sources
New boilers and stoves (coal and biomass)
Fabric filters for larger boilers
Filters in households (kitchen)
Fireplaces - inserts (catalytic, non-catalytic)
Good housekeeping (oil boilers)
Ban on open burning of waste
96 - 99.9 %
99.9 %
74 %
96 - 99.9 %
99.9 %
30 %
30 -80 %
99.2 %
10 %
44 – 70 %
30 %
100 %
Main emission control options for PM
continued
Removal efficiency
Industrial processes
Cyclones
Electrostatic precipitators
39 – 85 %
93 - 99.9 %
Fabric filters
99.2 - 99.9 %
Wet scrubbers
97.3 - 99.5 %
Fugitive emissions - good practices
Flaring - good practices
Storage and handling - good practices
Mining - good practices
Spraying water at construction sites
40 – 80 %
5%
36 – 40 %
50 %
35 %
Main emission control options for PM
continued
Removal efficiency
Transport
Cars and light duty trucks:
EURO 1 - EURO 5 standards
Heavy duty trucks:
EURO 1 - EURO 5 standards
Street washing
Non-road sector:
Euro equivalents
Agriculture
Free range poultry
Low till farming, alternative cereal harvesting
Feed modification
Hay silage
Ban on open burning of waste
35 – 99 %
36 – 98 %
??
36 – 98 %
28 %
39 %
38 %
54 %
100 %
Projected PM emissions in Europe
2000-2020
3000
kilotons/year
EU-15
EU-10
Non-EU
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000
CLE
2020
MTFR
2020
2000
CLE
2020
PM2.5
MTFR
2020
PM coarse
2000
CLE
2020
MTFR
2020
Sectoral emissions of PM2.5
CAFE calculations, EU-15
SNAP 10: Agriculture
SNAP 9: Waste treatment and disposal
SNAP 8: Other mobile sources and machinery
SNAP 7: Road transport
SNAP 5: Extraction and distribution
SNAP 4: Production processes
SNAP 3: Combustion in manufacturing industry
SNAP 2: Non-industrial combustion plants
SNAP 1: Combustion in energy industries
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
kilotons PM2.5
MTFR
Room for further improvement beyond CLE
Current legislation 2000-2020
400
450
Sectoral emissions of PM2.5
CAFE calculations, EU-10
SNAP 10: Agriculture
SNAP 9: Waste treatment and disposal
SNAP 8: Other mobile sources and machinery
SNAP 7: Road transport
SNAP 5: Extraction and distribution
SNAP 4: Production processes
SNAP 3: Combustion in manufacturing industry
SNAP 2: Non-industrial combustion plants
SNAP 1: Combustion in energy industries
0
50
100
150
200
kilotons PM2.5
MTFR
Room for further improvement beyond CLE
Current legislation 2000-2020
250
Sectoral emissions of PM2.5
RAINS estimates, Non-EU countries
SNAP 10: Agriculture
SNAP 9: Waste treatment and disposal
SNAP 8: Other mobile sources and machinery
SNAP 7: Road transport
SNAP 5: Extraction and distribution
SNAP 4: Production processes
SNAP 3: Combustion in manufacturing industry
SNAP 2: Non-industrial combustion plants
SNAP 1: Combustion in energy industries
0
100
200
300
400
500
kilotons PM2.5
MTFR
Room for further improvement beyond CLE
Current legislation 2000-2020
600
Contribution to primary PM2.5 emissions
“With climate measures” scenario, EU-15 [kt]
1400
Agriculture
1200
1000
Off-road
Non-exhaust
Diesel exhaust, HDT
Diesel exhaust, cars
800
600
Domestic,
wood stoves
Domestic,
wood stoves
400
200
Agriculture
Off-road
Non-exhaust
Diesel exhaust, cars
Industrial processes
Industrial processes
Industrial combustion
Industrial combustion
0
2000
2020
Scope for non-technical measures
• Local traffic restrictions
– Difficult to model (with RAINS)
• Accelerated phase-out of solid fuels in home heating
– E.g., removal of subsidies for local coal heating, or EU
structural funds for replacement of heating systems
• General reduction of carbonaceous fuel consumption
through a carbon tax
– CAFE analysis: illustrative scenario with 90 €/t CO2
carbon price (compared to 20 €/t CO2 in baseline)
Scope for non-technical measures
Effect of a 90 €/to CO2 carbon tax, according to PRIMES calculations
2000
kilotons PM2.5
With current legislation
With maximum
technically reductions
1500
1000
500
0
2000
Baseline (20
€/t CO2)
1: Combustion in energy industries
4: Production processes
8: Other mobile sources and machinery
90 €/t CO2
2: Non-industrial combustion plants
5: Extraction and distribution
9: Waste treatment and disposal
Baseline (20
€/t CO2)
90 €/t CO2
3: Combustion in manufacturing industry
7: Road transport
10: Agriculture
PM10 vs. PM2.5
How do measures directed at PM10 affect PM2.5?
Removal efficiencies of control measures
[Efficiency for PM10 / efficiency for PM2.5]
PM2.5
PM coarse
Waste disposal
Industrial processes
Industrial processes
Metallurgical industry
Agriculture
Tire wear
Tire wear
Abrasion
Abrasion
Brake wear
Brake wear
Brake wear
Gasoline cars
Gasoline cars
Other transport
Inland ships
Agriculural machinery
Other transport
Power plants, solid
Power plants, solid
Power plants, solid
Power plants, solid
Power plants, solid
Industrial, solids
Industrial, solids
Industry, gas+liquid
Industrial, solids
Industrial, solids
Industrial boilers
Stoves, solids
Domestic boilers, solid
Domestic solids
Domestic solids
Domestic gas
Coke plants
Coke plants
Refineries
Share of PM2.5 in PM10 emissions
from different sources
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Cost-optimized emission reductions
to reduce
health-relevant PM2.5 concentrations
in Europe
Based on WHO advice
of assuming equal potency of
all anthropogenic PM components
Cost-optimal emission reductions
for meeting the CAFE PM targets
% of 2000 emissions
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
SO2
NOx
Grey range: CLE - MTFR
NH3
Case "A"
Case "B"
PM2.5
Case "C"
Costs for meeting the CAFE PM targets
40
Billion Euros/year
30
20
10
0
Case "A"
Case "B"
Road sources
Case "C"
SO2
NOx
MTFR
NH3
PM
Sectoral emission reductions of PM2.5
for the CAFE Case B policy scenario, beyond CLE, EU-25
Transport
10%
Waste
16%
Domestic
42%
Power generation
9%
Industrial
processes
20%
Industrial
combustion
3%
Sectoral emission reductions of PM2.5
for the CAFE Case “B” policy scenario
Country
Austria
Belgium
Cyprus
Czech Rep.
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Poland
Portugal
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
UK
Conversion
Domestic
<10%
>30%
10-30 %
<10%
<10%
<10%
Industry
Power
plants
<10%
10-30 %
>30%
<10%
>30%
<10%
>30%
>30%
>30%
<10%
<10%
<10%
10-30 %
10-30 %
10-30 %
<10%
10-30 %
>30%
10-30 %
10-30 %
<10%
Processes
Waste
10-30 %
>30%
10-30 %
<10%
10-30 %
10-30 %
10-30 %
<10%
10-30 %
<10%
>30%
10-30 %
<10%
<10%
>30%
>30%
10-30 %
10-30 %
>30%
>30%
<10%
10-30 %
>30%
10-30 %
>30%
<10%
<10%
>30%
10-30 %
Other
<10%
<10%
<10%
<10%
10-30 %
>30%
>30%
<10%
>30%
10-30 %
<10%
10-30 %
10-30 %
10-30 %
10-30 %
<10%
<10%
>30%
10-30 %
<10%
10-30 %
>30%
10-30 %
<10%
Transport
10-30 %
<10%
<10%
<10%
<10%
10-30 %
>30%
<10%
<10%
<10%
>30%
10-30 %
10-30 %
10-30 %
<10%
<10%
>30%
<10%
<10%
<10%
<10%
<10%
<10%
>30%
10-30 %
<10%
<10%
10-30 %
10-30 %
<10%
<10%
>30%
<10%
<10%
10-30 %
<10%
Conclusions
•
In EU-25, primary PM emissions will decline by approx. 40%
between 2000 and 2020 because of CLE (as are NOx and VOC
emissions). No significant changes in non-EU countries.
•
In EU-25, equal amount could be reduced in addition with
currently available technical measures.
•
Largest potentials for further reductions in domestic sector and
for industrial processes.
•
Co-benefits of PM2.5 reduction on PM10 depend on sector and
measure chosen (and vice versa).
•
Cost-effective approaches to reduce health-relevant PM
concentrations involve other precursor emissions. Majority of
costs occur for controlling other pollutants than for PM.
•
In a cost-effective approach, largest reduction of primary PM
should come from small sources and from industrial processes.