New Techniques for
Analyzing Your Data to
Improve Performance
Predictive Analytics
Presenters
Mark Takayesu
Manager, Research Team
Ruth Garcia
Research Analyst III, Research Team
Roger Onofre
Research Analyst III, Research Team
Bryan Prieto
Chief Deputy Probation Officer, OC Probation
Predicting the Likelihood of Payment
■ What Is Predictive Analytics?
✷
Practice of extracting information from existing data sets
in order to determine patterns and predict future
outcomes and trends.
■ Used in Many Industries:
✷
Database Marketing
✷
Financial Risk Management
✷
Fraud Detection
✷
Predicting Performance
Predicting the Likelihood of Payment
■ How Is It Used in Child Support?
✷
Predict Outcomes (Will a case become delinquent & when?)
✷
Predict Estimates (Probability of Compliance (PM3) or payments?)
✷
Major factors that influence performance in order of importance
✷
Given this information, what can we do about it?
Model to Affect Future Behavior
Predict
Performance
• Data Mining
Identify Group
of Cases In
Need of
Intervention
• Probation Population
Identify Factors
That Influence
Performance
• Demographic, Performance,
and Appropriate Orders
Intervention
• Partnerships
Measure
Outcome
Predictive Analytics Project
■ Barriers Study – 772 NCPs surveyed on the barriers they believe
affect their ability to pay child support.
■ Barriers Identified:
Language
Public Assistance
Criminal History
NCP Age at 1st Born
Education Level
Visitation Limitations
Parole or Probation
Ratio of Order to Wage
Income Level
Number of Children
Employment Status Substance Abuse History
■ Ratio of Order to Wage – addressed through the Guideline Study
✷
Keep support amount below 20% of NCPs income for maximum results
■ Closer Look at Criminal History and Parole or Probation as a Barrier
Survey Compliance Predictors
Top Ten Compliance Predictors
Survey Results
■
12% of NCPs surveyed responded they were currently on Probation
■
Parents on Probation pay 12% of current support vs. those Not On Probation
paying at 51% FM3
Intervention Opportunities
■ Analyzed performance impact of NCPs who reported having
Parole or Probation as a barrier
■ Opportunity - Joint collaboration between CSS and Probation
Department to help these NCPs get back on their feet as a
result of AB109 enacted in Oct 2011
■ As a result of this partnership, CSS staff reached out to all
active Probation cases
Demographics
■ Demographics for cases with Criminal History
✷
21% or 14,744 of cases have Criminal History
✷
89% are Males and 11% are Females NCP
✷
6,648 have 1 or more cross-files
✷
5,101 have a current support obligation paying 36% FM3
✷
Represents $1.75 million in monthly child support
✷
17% or 2,539 of cases are currently on active Probation
Performance – Criminal History
■ Having Criminal History is one of the top barriers to paying support
■ These cases pay at a combined 36% rate of current support
■ Probationers pay even less, 28% during their transitional period
Appropriate Orders for Probation cases
■
NCPs on Probation/Parole pay at a low rate, however, when orders are set
below 20% threshold they pay at a higher rate.
Data Exchange from Probation
■ Monthly data exchange of all active Probation cases (includes
AB109 cases)
■ Data elements includes (matching data highlighted)
Name
Address
Probation Officer
SSN
Employer
Type of Offense
DOB
Demographics
CDC Number
■ Probation data added to OC Case Management Tool (CMT)
■ Analytical file flagged for future scoring
Data Exchange to Probation
■ Monthly exchange and refresh of all active CSS cases
■ Data elements Include (matching data highlighted)
Demographics
Upcoming Court Hearing
Financials
Contact Info
Court Order Info
License Suspension/Release
Employer
Probation Number
Last Payment
■ Secure file transferred to Probation
✷
Reviewed by ISO & Policy Unit to ensure no confidential and or
inappropriate information was shared
Probation Cases
■ Probation data included Type of Offense
✷
56% of the NCPs have a Felony
✷
28% have both a Felony and Misdemeanor
Performance – Criminal History
■ Cases with a Misdemeanor pay at 57%
■ Cases with a Felony or both drop compliance by half
Probation Data Match
■ 96% of Criminal History data is found in CSE
■ Probation data matched 17% of cases allowing caseworkers
to provide immediate attention
Additional Findings
■
Found 102 or 24% of 417 NCPs had a history of Domestic Violence
■
Only 12 were flagged in CSE
Business Practices
■ Receive up to date contact information for shared
participants from Probation Department
■ Direct communication between CSS and Probation Officers
■ Direct contact with NCPs post release to offer CSS services
■ Modification of orders
■ Connect NCPs to Community Resources (employment,
housing, health services, etc.)
■ Review for Compromise of Arrears (COAP)
■ Generate IWOs and NMSNs
Measuring AB109 Outcomes
■
7 months of data exchange (chart includes only 4 months due to financial history limitations)
■
Unique cases in each population
■
Increases and decreases are aligned with current circumstances
Pre and Post Overall Performance
Child Support Due
Arrears Due
$1,056,223
$29,985,809
$29,261,537
$956,293
Pre_CSOwed
Post_CSOwed
Pre_ArrsOwed
• 2,179 cases reviewed
• $99,929 child support removed, -9.5% change
• $724, 272 arrears removed, - 2.4% change
• FM3 increased 1.5%, from 28.3% to 29.8%
Post_ArrsOwed
Orange County Probation Department
■ The Orange County Probation Department is a
criminal justice agency that has provided
community protection to the residents of Orange
County since 1909.
■ Through a balanced methodology, the
organization provides protection through
community security (e.g. enforcement)
activities, offender accountability strategies
while promoting the offender’s competency
through the use of evidence based practices
(i.e. cognitive education based support).
Orange County Probation Department
■ The department mission is as follows:
“As a public safety agency, the Orange County
Probation Department serves the community
using efficient and research supported
corrections practices to:
Reduce Crime
Assist the Courts in Managing Offenders
Promote Lawful and Productive Lifestyles
Assist Victims
Orange County Probation Department
■ The Orange County Probation Department
Vision:
“A Safer Orange County Through Positive
Change”
AB 109
■ AB 109 (Adult Criminal Realignment) went into
effect October 1, 2011.
Probation looked to share information with Child
Support Services and other stakeholder groups
to improve client re-integration back into the
community by:
- improving/enhancing case plans and
- reducing redundancy in the delivery of
services.
Data Exchange
■ Although AB 109 was the initial population, the
data exchange included non-AB 109 clients.
Impact of Information Sharing
■ CSS information brochures made available at
Probation Office
■ Participate at Probation Day Reporting Center
■ Collaborative efforts to provide added support to
CPs and NCPs who are also probation clients
Preliminary Findings
■ Preliminary studies indicate that the offenders
who were released under AB 109 and
subsequently supervised by probation (i.e. Post
Release Community Supervision – PCS
offenders) rather than parole had a recidivism
rate of about 15%. This same population if
supervised by parole had a recidivism rate of
approximately 20%.
■ By comparison, non-AB 109 offenders
recidivated at a rate of 12% during the same
time frame.
Preliminary Findings
■ Although it is too early to claim whether AB 109
is a success, the preliminary results in Orange
County are positive and may speak to the
success of information sharing and collaborative
efforts of multiple agencies.
Contact Information
■ Mark Takayesu (714) 347-8223
✷
Mtakayesu@css.ocgov.com
■ Ruth Garcia (714) 347-8045
✷
Rgarcia@css.ocgov.com
■ Roger Onofre (714) 347-8004
✷
Ronofre@css.ocgov.com
■ Bryan Prieto (714) 937-4703
✷
Bryan.Prieto@prob.ocgov.com