Recent Climate, Energy Balance and the Greenhouse Effect David B. Reusch Penn State/New Mexico Tech dreusch@ees.nmt.edu CVEEN 7920/Geol 571 ~4 x 1026 W W = watts = power = energy/sec ~4 x 1026 W W = watts = power = energy/sec ~4 x 1026 W W = watts = power = energy/sec W = watts = power = energy/sec Basic Balance 342 W/m2 of shortwave radiation input from the Sun is balanced by… Earth outputs totaling 342 W/m2 of Reflected/scattered shortwave Absorbed/re-emitted longwave So what temperature is that? Earth’s Average Temperature An input of 342 W/m2 translates to a mean surface temperature of -18 °C We know that TA is actually 15 °C so what’s missing? The short answer: an atmosphere which provides the natural greenhouse effect E= 4 T ~4 x 1026 W W = watts = power = energy/sec Natural Greenhouse Effect What Wavelength? Sun ~6000 K, Earth ~288 K Dominant Wavelength Inversely related to temperature (Wien’s) Hotter -> shorter wavelength Sun @ 0.48 m (480 nm; visible) Earth @ 10 m (infrared or IR) Radiation emitted over a range of wavelengths 2897 6 *10 m T Solar Peak Terrestrial Peak Note: shape of Earth’s spectrum. It’s modified by the atmosphere! What Happens To Insolation? Reflection Scattering Absorption Transmission Reflection Change in direction of a wave on encountering an interface Atmosphere, clouds and surface Measured by albedo Reflection (and albedo) a = 35-75% a5-85% Scattering Random redirection of light by the atmosphere Wavelength and particle concentration dependence Rayleigh (blue skies) and Mie (white clouds) are main processes Scattering Absorption Energy taken up by object (photon is absorbed and destroyed) Anything absorbed must be re-emitted to maintain equilibrium At Earth temperatures, this converts shortwave into longwave when energy is re-emitted Absorption Absorption Atmosphere absorbs selectively (only some wavelengths) Mostly transparent in visible range Broad range of longwave absorbed by various greenhouse gases Stratospheric O2 & O3 absorb UV http://wxpaos09.colorado.edu/radiation/background.html UV & Visible IR or longwave http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/Energy_Flow.gif Shortwave 31% reflected directly 49% absorbed by surface 20% absorbed by atmosphere http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/Energy_Flow.gif 390 W/m2 is energy from a body at 15 °C Longwave http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/Energy_Flow.gif Longwave http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/Energy_Flow.gif Longwave http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/Energy_Flow.gif Balance incoming Outgoing Longwave Radiation http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ Additional complexity Earth is a rough sphere Slope, aspect Latitude Time/space varying albedo (reflectivity) Vegetation, snow/ice, soils, moisture Human land use change Atmospheric composition/structure, clouds Ocean, ice Composition: Stable Main components of dry atmosphere are pretty stable (~99%) 78% N2, 21% O2 Long-term (geologic) rise in oxygen Changes in stable isotope ratios Composition: Variable Minor by volume (< 1%) but major by climate effect in many cases (GHGs) Reactive (S, N, Cl cycles) Non-reactive (CO2, CFCs) Water vapor (up to 4% by volume) Particulates (aerosols) Variation exists over many time and space scales Greenhouse gases Certain naturally occurring trace gases change the atmosphere’s energy balance Carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4) Water vapor and others… Contribution to warming varies By concentration By “radiative efficiency” By lifetime in the atmosphere Leading Greenhouse Gases Gas Concentration Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 380 ppm Methane (CH4) 1700 ppb Nitrous oxide (N2O) Ozone (O3) Mexicoare ~one million Note: concentrations approximate! 500 ppb 70 ppb people India ~one billion people http://www.ipcc.ch/present/graphics/2001syr/large/02.01.jpg http://www.ipcc.ch -- Climate Change 2007: Summary for Policymakers Seasonal Cycle in NH Biota Anthropogenic Influence 33 Solar Base = 342 W m-2 Recent Change and Variability Recent Climate Variations: Surface Air Temperature http://www.ipcc.ch -- Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Chapter 3) Fi gur e 3. 1 Ranked Global Temperatures Tied http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc Spatial Changes in Temperature http://www.ipcc.ch -- Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Chapter 3) http://nsidc.org/data/glacier_photo/repeat_photography.html Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 13, 1941, photo by W.O. Field http://nsidc.org/data/glacier_photo/repeat_photography.html Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 31, 2004, photo by B.F. Molnia, USGS Grinnell Glacier 1938-2005 Glacier National Park 1938 1981 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Retreat_of_glaciers_since_1850 2005 Spatial Changes in Precipitation http://www.ipcc.ch -- Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Chapter 3) Recent Climate Variations: Sea Level http://www.ipcc.ch -- Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (Chapter 5) Arctic Sea Ice Trends http://nsidc.org/sotc/sea_ice.html Sept 2007 All-time Minimum http://nsidc.org/news/press/2007_seaiceminimum/20071001_pressrelease.html 500 Million Years of Change http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Dragons_flight/Images 500 Million Years of Change http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Dragons_flight/Images 500 Million Years of Change http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Dragons_flight/Images Today is Different Rates of change not seen in geologic record World did not have nearly 7 billion people