Ahmad Ijaz
Center for Business and Economic Research
Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration
The University of Alabama http://cber.cba.ua.edu
(205) 348-6191
Career and Technical Education Commission
August 1, 2011

Great Recession is truly over: Real GDP, real income, industrial production, wholesale & retail sales, and employment are all looking up
U.S. has had 11 recessions since WWII for 122 out of 784 months;
Great Recession is deepest, longest, and worst for jobs
Months since employment peak
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

1,0
0,0
-1,0
-2,0
-3,0
-4,0
-5,0
4,0
3,0
2,0
Annual Percent Change
U.S. GDP
Nonfarm Employment
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics and IHS Global Insight.

150
145
Unemployment Rate
140
135
130
125
Nonfarm Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and IHS Global Insight.
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

(Percent change unless otherwise noted) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Real GDP 0.0
-2.6
2.9
2.5
2.7
Consumption
Residential Investment
Business Fixed Investment
-0.3
-24.0
0.3
-1.2
-22.9
-17.1
1.7
-3.0
5.7
2.5
-1.8
8.5
2.4
14.5
7.7
Federal Government
State & Local Government
Exports
Imports
Payroll Employment (% growth)
Unemployment Rate
CPI Inflation
7.3
0.3
6.0
-2.6
-0.6
5.8
3.8
5.7
-0.9
-9.5
-13.8
-4.4
9.3
-0.3
4.8
-1.4
11.7
12.6
-0.7
9.6
1.6
0.0
-2.3
8.9
5.1
1.2
8.8
3.0
8.4
1.7
-3.1
-1.7
9.7
6.0
1.6
Light Vehicle Sales (Millions) 13.2
10.4
11.6
12.7
14.6
Source: IHS Global Insight, June 2011.

(Millions)
2
1
1
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
Construction
Business Services
Government
Leisure and Hospitality
Retailing
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and IHS Global Insight.
Health Services
Finance
Information
Manufacturing

-0,40
-0,60
-0,80
-1,00
-1,20
0,40
0,20
0,00
-0,20
Durable Goods
(Millions)
Nondurable Goods
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and IHS Global Insight.

(Millions)
0,15
0,10
0,05
0,00
-0,05
-0,10
-0,15
-0,20
-0,25
-0,30
Wood Products
Fabricated Metals
Electronic Products
Equipment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and IHS Global Insight.
Primary Metals
Machinery and Appliances

2008 National Employment Matrix title
Registered nurses
Home health aides
Customer service representatives
Combined food preparation and serving workers, plus fast food
Personal and home care aides
Retail salespersons
Office clerks, general
Accountants and auditors
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants
Postsecondary teachers
Construction laborers
Elementary school teachers, except special education
Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer
Landscaping and groundskeeping workers
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks
Employment
2008
2,618.7
2018
3,200.2
Change, 2008-18
Number
581.5
Percent
22.20
Median
Annual wage quartile,
2008
Most significant source of postsecondary education or training
VH Associate degree
921.7
2,252.4
1,382.6
2,651.9
460.9
399.5
50.01
17.74
VL Short-term on-the-job training
L
Moderate-term on-the-job training
2,701.7 3,096.0 394.3 14.59
VL Short-term on-the-job training
817.2
4,489.2
3,024.4
1,290.6
1,469.8
1,699.2
1,248.7
1,549.5
1,798.4
1,205.8
2,063.8
1,193.0
4,863.9
3,383.1
1,570.0
1,745.8
1,956.1
1,504.6
1,793.7
2,031.3
1,422.9
2,276.2
375.8
374.7
358.7
279.4
276.0
256.9
255.9
244.2
232.9
217.1
212.4
45.99
8.35
11.86
21.65
18.78
15.12
20.49
15.76
12.95
18.00
10.29
VL Short-term on-the-job training
VL Short-term on-the-job training
L Short-term on-the-job training
VH Bachelor's degree
L
Postsecondary vocational award
VH Doctoral degree
L
Moderate-term on-the-job training
H Bachelor's degree
H Short-term on-the-job training
L Short-term on-the-job training
H
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Continued on the next slide

Continued from previous slide
2008 National Employment Matrix title
Executive secretaries and administrative assistants
Management analysts
Computer software engineers, applications
Receptionists and information clerks
Carpenters
Medical assistants
First-line supervisors/managers of office and administrative support workers
Network systems and data communications analysts
Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses
Security guards
Waiters and waitresses
Maintenance and repair workers, general
Physicians and surgeons
Child care workers
Teacher assistants
753.6
1,076.6
2,381.6
1,361.3
661.4
1,301.9
1,312.7
Employment
2008
1,594.4
746.9
514.8
1,139.2
1,284.9
483.6
1,457.2
2018
1,798.8
925.2
689.9
1,312.1
1,450.3
647.5
1,617.5
Change, 2008-18
Number
204.4
178.3
175.1
Percent
12.82
23.87
34.01
Median
Annual wage quartile,
2008
Most significant source of postsecondary education or training
H
VH
Work experience in a related occupation
Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience
VH Bachelor's degree
172.9
165.4
163.9
160.3
15.18
12.87
33.90
11.00
L
H
Short-term on-the-job training
Long-term on-the-job training
L Moderate-term on-the-job training
H
Work experience in a related occupation
292.0 447.8 155.8 53.36
VH Bachelor's degree
909.2
1,229.1
2,533.3
1,509.2
805.5
1,443.9
1,447.6
155.6
152.5
151.6
147.9
144.1
142.1
134.9
20.65
14.16
6.37
10.86
21.79
10.91
10.28
H Postsecondary vocational award
L Short-term on-the-job training
VL Short-term on-the-job training
H Moderate-term on-the-job training
VH First professional degree
VL Short-term on-the-job training
L Short-term on-the-job training

Population: 4,779,736 (April 1, 2010)
− Up by 7.5% since 2000, below the 9.7% increase for U.S.
− 2009 median age is 37.4 vs. 36.8 for U.S.
− 17.5 percent poverty rate in 2009; 14.3 percent U.S.
Income: $33,360 per capita (2009)
− 84.2% of $39,626 for U.S.
Labor Force: 2,156,429 in May 2011
− 1,952,279 employed; 9.5 unemployment (9.1% U.S.)
− 45.7% of city/town residents work in the city where they live
− 54.3% work outside of their city/town of residence
Housing: 2,182,358 units (2009)
−
84.7% occupied (87.4% U.S.); 69.6% owner-occupied (65.9% U.S.)

Alabama GDP:
–
$140.1 billion (2009); 1.1% of $14.0 trillion U.S. GDP
–
$172.6 billion (2010); 1.2% of $14.6 trillion U.S. GDP
–
Real GDP up 16.2% between 2000 and 2010 (16.7% for U.S.)
–
Manufacturing produces 16.3% of AL GDP with 12.5% of workers
Transportation Equipment Manufacturing: Top export
–
1997: Mercedes M-Class was the only model
–
2010: 9 models (8 at year-end) and 760,000 vehicles capacity with
1 new model slated for 2014 and higher total capacity
–
Engine and parts production increasing
–
About 46,000 workers; down from 52,700 in 2007 and 2008
–
Produces 5% of AL GDP with 2.5% of workers
–
Exports in 2010 totaled $5.3 billion, or 34% of total exports

Civilian Labor Force
Percent Change from Year Ago Level
Absolute Change from Year Ago Level
Not Seasonally
Adjusted
2,185,690
2.4%
50,233
Employed
Percent Change from Year Ago Level
Absolute Change from Year Ago Level
Unemployed
Percent Change from Year Ago Level
Absolute Change from Year Ago Level
1,955,512
1.3%
25,255
230,178
12.2%
24968
Seasonally
Adjusted
2,168,870
2.2%
46,083
1,954,895
1.6%
29,888
213,975
8.2%
16,195
Alabama Unemployment Rate
Alabama Unemployment Rate (June 2010)
U.S. Unemployment Rate
U.S. Unemployment Rate (June 2010)
10.5%
9.6%
9.3%
9.6%
9.9%
9.3%
9.2%
9.5%
Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations, Labor Market Information Division.
Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama 15

Total Nonagricultural
Natural Resources and Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Durable Goods Manufacturing
Nondurable Goods Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation and Utilities
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State Government
Local Government
June 2009 to June
2010
-14,500
-500
-5,000
-6,600
-3,800
-2,800
-3,500
-2,000
-1,700
200
-2,000
-5,300
1,300
1,800
2,200
-1,300
4,400
6,800
-700
-1,700
Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations, Labor Market Information Division.
June 2010 to June
2011
-9,500
600
-3,300
300
1,100
-800
2,800
-1,000
1,900
1,900
-900
-200
4,200
-800
1,600
-300
-13,500
-3,800
-5,000
-4,700
Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama 16

Tax Total Collection
Percent
Change
From
Year Ago
Total
Income (Individual)
Sales
$6,608,070,372
$2,621,775,537
$1,423,750,264
Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations.
5.3%
5.8%
3.1%
Change in
Revenue from Year
Ago Level
$333,163,531
$143,119,576
$43,402,763
Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama 17

Alabama Per Capita Income as Percent of U.S.
70
60
50
90
80
40
30
1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999 2009

United States
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford
Auburn-Opelika
Birmingham-Hoover
Decatur
Dothan
Florence-Muscle Shoals
Gadsden
Huntsville
Mobile
Montgomery
Tuscaloosa
0,0
Unemployment Rate
June 2011 versus June 2010
2,0 4,0 6,0
7,5
8,0
9,6
9,3
9,6
10,5
9,6
10,4
8,5
9,2
9,3
9,8
9,8
10,2
8,5
10,0
9,2
9,8
9,5
10,7
8,9
10,0
11,8
9,0
10,0
10,5
10,2
11,0
12,0
Jun-10
Jun-11
14,0

Annual Employment (Thousands)
Annual Unemployment rate (Percent)
Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama 20

The number of employed residents declined at a slower rate from the start of the recession until mid-2008, then fell sharply through December 2009 with 262,828 losing their jobs and many becoming discouraged. Through December 2010, the job loss is 164,379. Most job losses were in manufacturing, construction, retail trade, and professional and business services; except for retail, these sectors pay high salaries and wages. As a result, tax revenues declined sharply.
The state’s unemployment rate, after being below the national rate from 2002 through
2008, rose above the nation’s from January 2009 to July 2010 with a peak in January 2010
Since December 2010, the state has added 36,700 jobs
Dec-07
Jun-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Unemployment Rate (%) Number Employed Change Percent Change
3.9 2,100,370
5.3
7.0
10.8
10.6
10.3
8.9
2,060,097
1,995,929
1,916,297
1,837,542
1,889,234
1,935,991
-40,273
-64,168
-79,632
-78,755
51,692
46,757
Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations (non-seasonally adjusted).
-1.9
-3.1
-4.0
-4.1
2.8
2.5

$171.1 Billion GDP 1,868,600 Jobs
100%
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Gadsden; 1,5
Auburn-Opelika;
2,1
Rest of state;
20,5
Tuscaloosa; 4,8
Montgomery; 8,7
Mobile; 8,9
Huntsville; 11,3
Dothan; 2,6
Decatur; 3,1
Birmingham-
Hoover,
32.0
Florence-Muscle
Shoals; 2,3
Percent of State GDP 2008
Anniston-
Oxford; 2,3
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.
90%
Rest of State,
23.4
80%
70%
Tuscaloosa, 5.0
Montgomery 8.9
60%
Mobile, 9.1
50%
Huntsville, 11.2
40%
Gadsden, 1.9
Florence-Muscle
Shoals, 2.9
Dothan, 3.1
Decatur, 2.8
30%
20%
10%
0%
Birmingham-
Hoover,
26.0
Auburn-Opelika,
2.8
Number of Nonfarm Jobs
Percent of Total, Dec. 2010
Annistorn-
Oxford, 2.7
Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations.
Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama 22

1,935,991 Employed 4,708,708 People
100% 100%
90%
Rest of State,
27.2
90% Rest of State,
29.5
80% 80%
70%
60%
Tuscaloosa, 4.7
Montgomery7.9
Mobile, 8.5
70%
50%
40%
Gadsden, 2.1
30%
20%
10%
0%
Huntsville, 10.0
60%
50%
40%
Gadsden, 2.2
Tuscaloosa, 4.5
Montgomery, 7.8
Mobile, 8.7
Huntsville, 8.6
Dothan, 3.0
Decatur, 3.3
Florence-Muscle
Shoals,
3.2
30%
Dothan, 3.0
Decatur, 3.2
Birmingham-
Hoover,
24.4
Auburn-Opelika, 3.1
Anniston-Oxford,
2.5
Number Employed
Percent of Total, Dec. 2010
Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations.
20% Birmingham-
Hoover,
24.0
10% Auburn-Opelika,
2.9
0%
Population
Percent of Total, Jul. 2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau.
Florence-Muscle
Shoals, 3.1
Annistorn-
Oxford, 2.4
Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama 23

Median Family Income FY2010
United States
Alabama
Anniston-Oxford
Auburn-Opelika
Birmingham-Hoover
Decatur
Dothan
Florence-Muscle…
Gadsden
Huntsville
Mobile
Montgomery
Tuscaloosa
$64 400
$54 100
$50 900
$61 000
$61 700
$56 100
$51 400
$52 600
$47 600
$68 000
$50 500
$59 200
$56 300
$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000
Note: Chilton and Walker counties are not included in the estimate for the Birmingham-Hoover metro and
Henry County is not included in the Dothan MSA estimate. Methodology was changed in FY2007 to more fully utilize ACS data and estimates cannot be compared with prior years.
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Economic Affairs .

With growing tourism, exports and manufacturing sectors, the state’s economy is poised for another good decade after a wonderful performance in 2000-2010 despite two recessions
Continuing diversification of the state economy into biotechnology, healthcare, aerospace, automotive, national defense, education, steel, shipbuilding, and other high-paying manufacturing and white-collar jobs
Many economic and workforce development successes with accolades for state agencies and a number of cities listed as best places to live and/or do business
Continued and faster than expected population growth; moving companies report sharp reductions nationwide but net gain for Alabama in 2010
Per capita income at highest levels relative to the nation’s
Business optimism is up slightly
Job growth is returning

100
Men, Age 25-54
Women Age 25-54
Both Age 16-24
Both Age 55+
Total
1948-2007
80
60
40
20
1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

− raise the normal retirement age from 65 to 67
− increase the rate at which monthly payments rise with delayed benefits
− eliminate the reduction in benefits for those working beyond the full retirement age

Prime working age group (20-64) will grow slower than general population.
Older worker participation will become important and necessary.
Alabama Population by Age Group (2000-2008) and Projections
Age Group
0-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65+
20-64 Total
2000
1,256,169
306,865
301,196
301,819
340,300
345,212
315,173
285,036
225,450
190,082
579,798
2,611,133
2008
1,257,812
329,733
305,432
292,403
304,869
326,135
349,178
337,933
302,221
252,279
638,215
2,800,183
2018
1,283,951
334,319
331,893
319,294
313,747
310,317
320,201
339,654
357,848
334,834
847,427
2,962,107
Total Population 4,447,100 4,696,210 5,093,485
2025
1,324,498
338,070
319,696
335,077
333,814
331,668
316,174
326,149
330,258
355,827
1,049,986
2,986,733
5,361,217
Change from 2008
0-19
20-64
Total Population
2.1%
5.8%
8.5%
5.3%
6.7%
14.2%
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA 28

The Alabama workforce is aging. Workers age 45 and older were already
42.6 percent of the state’s workforce in the first quarter of 2010, up from
39.6 percent a year earlier.
Alabama Workers by Age Group Q1 2010
14-18
19-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
45 and over total
Total all ages
Nonagricultural Employment
Number Percent
32,186
185,680
377,512
398,840
411,445
254,661
70,465
736,571
1,730,789
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Local Employment Dynamics Program.
1.9
10.7
21.8
23.0
23.8
14.7
4.1
42.6
100.0
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA 29

With unemployment at 9.9% in June 2011, Alabama has a roughly 670,000strong available labor pool that includes about 463,500 underemployed workers who are looking for better job opportunities.
The underemployed are willing to commute farther and longer, some for 20 or more minutes longer (46%) and 20 or more extra miles (34%) one-way.
Unemployed
Labor force
Employed
Underemployment rate
Number of underemployed workers
YTD 2011
2,106,305
1,898,661
24.4%
463,463
Unemployed 207,644
Available labor pool 671,107
Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama and Labor Market Information Division, Alabama Department of Industrial Relations.
Available
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA 30

Alabama has lower labor force participation, population growth, and educational attainment than the nation.
Labor force participation (2009): Alabama, 60.9% United States, 65.3%
Age 25 to 64 (2009): Alabama, 74.1% United States, 78.7%
1990-2000
2000-2010
Population Growth
Alabama
10.1%
7.5%
United States
13.2%
9.7%
Educational Attainment (Age 25 and over population, 2005-2009)
High school graduates Bachelor’s or higher degree
Alabama
United States
81%
85%
22%
28%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey.
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA 31

Alabama trails nation, which is behind seven other countries, in adults with degrees (2005)
Source: NCHEMS
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA 32

Willingness to train: CW 47.6%; W 13.2%; N 15.2%; U 4.0%; CU 19.1%.
Underemployed: CW 59.8%; W 13.6%; N 11.8%; U 2.3%; CU 11.7%.
Training cost burden: trainee, government, both.
Workers’ willingness to train is affected by who pays for training costs.
Typically, workers do not wish to pay for the training and so their willingness is highest when the cost is fully borne by government and lowest when the trainee must pay the full costs. The underemployed are more willing to train irrespective of how the costs are borne:
CW + W: 88.2% vs. 80.9% if paid by government
CW + W: 46.3% vs. 37.7% if paid by both
CW + W: 14.5% vs. 12.7% if paid by trainee
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA 33

Top Employers
Manufacturing
Health care and social assistance
Retail trade
Educational services
Accommodation and food services
Top five sectors in Q1 2010 provided
1,0111,818 jobs (58.5 percent of total employment). Of the five, only manufacturing at $3,815 paid more than the average state monthly wage of $3,116.
Highest and Lowest Average Monthly Wages by Industry in Q1 2010
Utilities
Mining
Professional, scientific, and technical services
Accommodation and food services
$5,945
$5,574
$4,962
$1,261
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA 34

Of a total 905 occupations, with 41 high-demand (growth- and wages-weighted and minimum 40 annual job openings), 40 fast-growing (minimum 2.2 percent annual growth rate with at least 5 annual job openings), and top 50 high-earning occupations (ranked by annual salary, $84,980 - $227,290):
Top five highdemand occupations
Top five fastgrowing occupations
Top five highearning occupations
Registered Nurses
Team Assemblers
Customer Service Representatives
Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education
Home Health Aides
Veterinary Technologists and Technicians
Computer Software Engineers, Applications
Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts
Occupational Therapist Assistants
Personal and Home Care Aides
Surgeons
Orthodontists
Internists, General
Physicians and Surgeons, All Other
Anesthesiologists
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA 35

Fast growing jobs (ranked in decreasing order by annual openings,
485-5; high-demand; high-earning )
Home Health Aides
Pharmacy Technicians
Computer Systems Analysts
Medical Assistants
Bill and Account Collectors
Computer Software Engineers, Applications
Personal and Home Care Aides
Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software
Network and Computer Systems Administrators
Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts
Aircraft Mechanics and Service Technicians
Welding, Sold., & Brazing Mach. Set., Oper., & Tend.
Dental Hygienists
Vocational Education Teachers, Postsecondary
Entertainment Attendants and Related Workers, All Other
Personal Financial Advisors
Veterinarians
Veterinary Technologists and Technicians
Physical Therapist Assistants
Commercial Pilots
Mental Health Counselors
Transportation Inspectors
Occupational Therapists
Database Administrators
Avionics Technicians
Physical Therapist Aides
Industrial Engineers
Dental Assistants
Occupational Therapist Assistants
Physician Assistants
Aircraft Struct., Surfaces, Rigging & Systems Assemblers Rail Car Repairers
Fitness Trainers and Aerobics Instructors Environmental Engineering Technicians
Medical and Public Health Social Workers
Biological Science Teachers, Postsecondary
Physical Therapists
Skin Care Specialists
Court Reporters
Medical Appliance Technicians
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA 36

Declining occupations (2008-2018), ranked in decreasing order
Sewing Machine Operators
Farmers and Ranchers
Photographic Processing Machine Operators
Extruding & Form Machine Setters, Operators &
Tending Synthetic & Glass Fibers
Packers and Packagers, Hand
File Clerks
Textile Bleaching and Dyeing Machine Operators and
Tenders
Switchboard Operators, Including Answering Service
Textile Knitting & Weaving Machine Setters, Oper & Tenders Textile Cutting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders
Textile Winding, Twisting, & Drawing Out Machine Setters,
Operators & Tenders
Order Clerks
Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers
Pressers, Textile, Garment, and Related Materials
Computer Operators
Mail Clerks and Mail Machine Operators, Except Postal
Service
Postal Service Mail Sorters, Processors, & Processing
Machine Operators
Textile, Apparel, and Furnishings Workers, All Other
Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders
New Accounts Clerks
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA 37

A skills gap analysis of the skills that will be required to meet occupational projections through 2018 indicates that basic skills will be in highest demand. This means that workers must take a continuous learning approach to their jobs and that early education is crucial.
Top Twelve Skills Required to Meet 2008-2018 Occupational Projections
Skill Type
Basic
Basic
Basic
Basic
Basic
Social
Basic
Social
Basic
Resource Management
Basic
Social
Skill
Reading Comprehension
Active Listening
Critical Thinking
Active Learning
Speaking
Coordination
Monitoring
Instructing
Writing
Time Management
Learning Strategies
Social Perceptiveness
Skills Gap
Index
100
97
94
91
89
86
83
80
77
74
71
69
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA 38

From a 2008 base, a roughly 117,000-worker surplus in 2018 and an over 73,000worker shortage in 2025 are expected. Worker skills and the expected shortfall must be priorities through 2025, with heavy emphasis on skills in the near term.
Worker shortfalls for critical occupations will need to be addressed continuously.
Alabama Employment and Population Growth for 2018 and 2025
(Percent Change from 2008)
16
Nonfarm Population 20-64 Total Population
14,2
14
12
10
8
6
5,8
8,5
9,5
6,7
4
2 1,2
0
2018 2025
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight, U.S. Census Bureau, and
Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA 39

Efforts to address skill needs, shortfalls in critical occupations, and long term worker shortfalls must include:
Improving education and education funding
Continuing and enhancing programs to assess, retrain, and place dislocated workers
Focusing on hard-to-serve populations (e.g. out-of-school youth)
Lowering the high school dropout rate
Using economic opportunities to attract new residents
Encouraging older worker participation
Facilitating in-commuting
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA 40

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
More educated people are more likely to work
Percent of Alabama Civilians Ages 25 to 64
Participating in the Workforce by Level of Education 2009
In the Civilian Workforce
Not in the Civilian Workforce
70,6
54,7
45,3
29,4
78,1
85,9
21,9
14,1
Less than High
School
High School Some College or
Associate's Degree
Bachelor's Degree or higher
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey.
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA 41

Economic development should target high-earning industries and workforce development should ensure availability of workers for such industries.
The state’s economy needs to be further diversified and strengthened by retaining, expanding, and attracting more high-wage providing industries because lower wages are common to the largest employment sectors, except manufacturing.
A highly educated and productive workforce is a critical economic development asset.
In developing this asset, all high school graduates should possess basic skills so that postsecondary and higher education can focus on other more complex skills as well as enhancing basic skills.
Employers should be an integral part of planning for workforce training as they can help identify future skill needs and any existing gaps.
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA 42

Investment in education/training and skills development is crucial.
All but two of the 50 highest-earning occupations, 56 percent (23/41) of high-demand, and
40 percent (16/40) of fastgrowing ones require bachelor’s or higher degrees.
An associate degree is the minimum requirement for 52 percent (21/40) of fast-growing occupations and 66 percent (27/41) of high-demand occupations.
Most high-demand job ads are currently asking for high school graduates at the minimum.
Postsecondary education/training with demonstrable skills will be the future minimum requirement for most jobs.
High-demand and fast-growing jobs require similar skill sets.
High-earning occupations require more active learning, science, writing, complex problem solving, personnel management, and judgment and decision making skills. These jobs require long training periods and postsecondary education .
High-earning jobs require less social (except persuasion) and technical
(except operations analysis) skills.
CENTER FOR BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC RESEARCH, THE UNIVERSITY OF ALABAMA 43

70,0
65,0
60,0
55,0
50,0
45,0
40,0
35,0
30,0
25,0
20,0
Alabama
United States
52.5
44.3

ABCI
Third Quarter 2011 Outlook
Alabama
Change from Q2
51.4
-4.4
National Economy 44.3
-9.3
Alabama Economy
Industry Sales
Industry Profits
Industry Hiring
Capital Expenditures
52.5
56.1
52.6
52.1
51.1
-4.8
-5.8
-3.2
-1.0
-2.0
Index above 50 indicates expansion.
Index below 50 indicates contraction.

70,0
65,0
60,0
55,0
50,0
45,0
40,0
35,0
30,0
25,0
20,0
Sales
Profits
Expectations versus Prior Quarter
56.1
52.6

Expectations versus Prior Quarter
70,0
65,0
60,0
55,0
50,0
45,0
40,0
35,0
30,0
25,0
20,0
Capital Expenditures
Hiring
52.1
51.1

ABCI and Component Indexes by Area, Third Quarter 2011
MSA
National Economy
Alabama Economy
Industry Sales
Industry Profits
Industry Hiring
Capital Expenditures
ABCI
Alabama Birmingham
44.3
46.2
52.5
54.1
56.1
52.6
52.1
51.1
54.4
51.0
49.1
49.1
51.4
50.6
Huntsville
43.0
50.8
54.5
53.3
50.8
46.7
49.9
Mobile Montgomery
42.0
46.2
52.8
53.1
58.5
51.1
56.8
54.0
59.4
55.0
55.0
55.0
52.6
54.0

ABCI and Component Indexes by Firm Size, Third Quarter 2011
National Economy
Alabama Economy
Industry Sales
Industry Profits
Industry Hiring
Capital Expenditures
ABCI
Number of Employees
0 to 19
43.8
20 to 99
42.4
51.5
56.0
51.0
50.0
47.2
50.6
54.7
52.4
52.6
52.4
49.9
50.8
100+
47.1
55.2
57.4
54.5
53.8
53.6
53.6

60
40
20
0
-20
-40
Total, Durables, Nondurables, and Motor Vehicle Production
(Annual Percent Change)
120
100
80
Total
Durables
Nondurables
Motor Vehicle Manufacturing
Source: Alabama Department of Industrial Relations and Center for Business and Economic Research,
The University of Alabama
Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama 57

This Alabama GDP and employment forecast summary is the CBER
April 2011 forecast (with no tornadoes effect)
Preliminary estimates of the tornadoes are short-term reductions of about 0.3-0.7% to GDP, tax revenues, and employment, but clean-up and rebuilding activities will offset some of these losses
Probability: Forecast (60 Percent) and Range (90 percent)
(Percent change)
Real GDP range
Employment range
Total Tax Receipts, FY range
2010
2.0
-0.9
-2.5
2011
2.8
2012
3.3
2.1 to 3.4
2.7 to 4.2
0.8
2.0
0.4 to 1.7
0.5 to 2.4
2.4
2.7
-2.0 to 4.0
-1.0 to 3.5
Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama 58

Center for Business and Economic Research
Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration
The University of Alabama http://cber.cba.ua.edu
(205) 348-6191