10am The UK Sandwich Market Presentation by JEFFREY YOUNG Allegra Strategies Trends in the UK Sandwich Market Presentation at The Taste Experience British Sandwich Association Jeffrey Young, Managing Director, Allegra Strategies Ltd 1 November 2007 Allegra Strategies Limited No 1 Northumberland Avenue, Trafalgar Square, London WC2N 5BW, UK Tel: +44(0)20 7691 8800 Fax: 44 (0)20 7691 8810 Email: info@allegra.co.uk www.allegra.co.uk 1. Background on Allegra Strategies 2. Consumer Food Mega-Trends 3. Market Landscape 4. Case Study: Branded Coffee Chain Segment 5. Future Sandwich Market Developments 6. Q&A Page 3 ABOUT ALLEGRA STRATEGIES • Leading UK research and strategy consulting firm focusing on Coffee and Foodservice, Retail and Consumer Lifestyle • Mission to deliver outstanding quality information, assisting clients to better understand their competitive environment and to focus on customers, markets and innovation • Publish Project Café series since August 1999, recognised as the definitive report on the UK and European branded coffee and sandwich chain markets • Research projects: qualitative and quantitative customer insight programmes, competitive analysis, best practices and commercial due diligence for leading UK and global clients • Project Café7 release May 2007. European Coffee Shop Market 2007 released October 2007 • In addition to bespoke research and strategy consulting to the coffee sector, Allegra also pioneers a series of definitive retail publications including: - How Women Shop!™ 2007 - Ethical Consumer Trends UK – Clean Energy and Energy Efficiency 2007 - Ethical Brands – Implications for the Food sector • In 2007, Allegra established an industry Think Tank - The Food Strategy Forum • Senior Food & Beverage Executive Top of Mind Survey completed 30 October 2007 • Currently working on a new report: ‘Food on the Move’ Page 4 CLIENTS Allegra Strategies provides research and consulting products and services to a wide variety of leading UK and global corporations. Our recent client list includes: Page 5 1. Background on Allegra Strategies 2. Consumer Food Mega-Trends 3. Market Landscape 4. Case Study: Branded Coffee Chain Segment 5. Future Sandwich Market Developments 6. Q&A Page 6 Allegra’s research and analysis over the past decade identifies 7 Mega-trends driving developments across the global food sector, with important consequences for the UK sandwich market. 1. Healthy Eating 2. Food-on-the-Move 3. Premiumisation / ‘Culture of Food’ 4. Greater Variety and Choice 5. Expansion of Branded Chain Concepts 6. Growing Importance of ‘Experience’ 7. Ethical Consumerism Page 7 GLOBAL FOOD MEGA-TREND - HEALTHY EATING • Societal concern with obesity in the UK • Press and government programmes have stimulated a growing focus on healthy eating • Greater awareness of nutrition • Proactive efforts by leading supermarkets and foodservice chains • Trends towards simpler, more natural, fresh foods and organic produce • Dramatic reduction in trans fats • Reduced additives and preservatives Page 8 Allegra’s national food buying behaviour consumer research identified a major trend towards healthy eating. Nearly three-quarters of UK consumers interviewed stated that they are more concerned with healthy eating than they were five years ago. 55% believe that they should be eating healthier still. CONSUMERS’ INCREASED CONCERNS ABOUT HEALTHY EATING [NATIONAL FOOD BUYING RESEARCH] Response to Prompt: I’m more concerned with healthy eating than I was 5 years ago. Percentage80% 73.8% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 19.8% 20% 10% 6.3% 0% Agree Strongly/Agree Neither Disagree Strongly/Disagree Source: Allegra Strategies National Food Buying Behaviour Interviews and Analysis, 2006 Page 9 GLOBAL FOOD MEGA-TREND – FOOD-ON-THE-MOVE • Also known as Convenience-led consumption, Dash-board Dining or Grab&Go • Busier and more mobile lifestyles • Consumers are eating more meals out-ofthe- home • Increasing snacking and grazing • ‘Three meals a day’ is now an out-dated stereotype in much of Britain • Takeaway food and beverages have risen substantially in the past decade and is now widespread • Retailers, foodservice operators and food manufacturers have responded with a wide variety of convenience offers Page 10 Nearly two-thirds of UK consumers eat out-of-the-home at least once per week or approximately two meals per week on average. This trend has grown substantially over the past decade with the introduction of more convenience offers and more mobile consumption habits. EATING OUT-OF-THE-HOME [NATIONAL FOOD BUYING RESEARCH] How many times per week on average would you eat meals out-of-home? Percentage 25% 19.5% 20% 18.2% 15% 13.2% 12.7% 10.7% 10% 9.1% 6.8% 5.3% 5% 3.4% 1.1% 0% 7 times or more per week 5 to less than 7 times per week 3 to less than 5 times per week 2 to 3 times per week Once per week 2 to 3 times per month Source: Allegra Strategies National Food Buying Behaviour Interviews and Analysis, 2006 Once a month Once every two months Once or less every quarter Very seldom/ don't normally eat out Page 11 A quarter of UK consumers under 35 stated that they eat many meals ‘on-the-move’, an important current and future market for sandwich players. Allegra’s national food sample reveals that younger consumers are more likely to eat unstructured meals. EATING ON-THE-MOVE [NATIONAL FOOD BUYING RESEARCH] Response to Prompt: I eat many of my meals on-the-move. Percentage 30% 26.3% 24.0% 25% 18.8% 20% 15% 12.7% 11.5% 10% 5% 3.0% 0% 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Source: Allegra Strategies National Food Buying Behaviour Interviews and Analysis, 2006 Page 12 GLOBAL FOOD MEGA-TREND - PREMIUMISATION / ‘CULTURE OF FOOD’ • Historically high relative wealth has increased discretionary income • Growing demand for higher quality products and luxury treats, provides food players with opportunities to increase revenue • A few examples: - Growing popularity of deli concepts - Rise of farmers markets - Premium supermarket own-label - Shift from instant to roast & ground coffee - Premium niche brands, e.g. Kettle Crisps • Rise of celebrity chefs and TV programmes e.g. Master Chef, Hell’s Kitchen, Jamie Oliver Page 13 GLOBAL FOOD MEGA-TREND - GREATER VARIETY AND CHOICE • Increased travel and exposure to different cultures is driving more open-mindedness • Increased acceptance and enjoyment of a wider variety of food types and multi-cultural cuisines • More demanding consumers expect a higher degree of choice and quality • Wide variety of product formats and channels to market • Variety in tastes is particularly evident from the diversity of supermarket shelves and restaurant menus of today • 24-hour access to food purchases is potentially a contributor to obesity Page 14 GLOBAL FOOD MEGA-TREND – EXPANSION OF BRANDED CONCEPTS • A global trend to consolidation in retail and foodservice • Branded chain foodservice concepts, e.g. Costa, Starbucks, Pret, Carluccio’s, Subway, La Tasca, Pizza Express have proliferated at the expense of independent operators • Significant growth in the quality mid-market • Consumers shunning ‘greasy spoon’ outlets • Despite a stated ‘emotional’ link to independent operators, UK consumers are gravitating to brands that they trust, associate with and aspire to • Brands create a sense of ‘fashion’ and excitement • Financial strength and operational excellence of branded operators provide distinct advantage Page 15 Growing brand awareness is evident as consumers increasingly use foodservice chain concepts. Vibrant brands that connect to a broad but well-defined target audience are those that gain most customer recognition. AVERAGE NUMBER OF MAJOR BRANDS RECOGNISED UK BRANDED COFFEE SHOP VISITORS, 1999 - 2007 [COFFEE SHOP INTERVIEWS] Response to Question: Which of the following coffee/sandwich shops brand do you know? Number of Brands Year-on-Year change 11.5 April '07 10.2 Nov'05 8.3 May '04 May '03 7.9 Mar '02 6.8 Nov '00 4.7 Jun '99 4.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Apr ‘07 +12.7% Nov ‘05 +22.9% May ‘04 + 5.1% May ‘03 + 16.2% Mar ‘02 + 44.7% Nov ‘00 + 11.9% 12 Number of Brands Recognised Source: Allegra Strategies Coffee Shop Interviews & Analysis, April 2007 Page 16 GLOBAL FOOD MEGA-TREND – IMPORTANCE OF CUSTOMER ‘EXPERIENCE’ • High quality, themed store environments have become important tools to unlocking consumer spend • Rise of ‘3rd space’ as a social venue – importance of a ‘my time’ space is not to be underestimated • Sense of ‘urban casualness’ is encapsulated in the successful Starbucks, including the use of sofas, hand-written menu boards and themed graphics • New McDonald’s stores now feature vibrant, café-like environments • Supermarkets such as M&S and Waitrose are food-shopping • Tastings, customer education and events Page 17 GLOBAL FOOD MEGA-TREND – ETHICAL CONSUMERISM • Ethical dimensions are increasing in consumer purchase decisions. Key areas include: • Environmental impact / Food miles • Fairtrade • Local sourcing • Organics • Social responsibility • Impetus has been driven by corporate activities and widespread media coverage • Growing concern with climate change but also an important focus on food provenance, localness and reduced packaging • Ethical positioning is a business imperative Page 18 While, 9% of visitors expressed strong opinions in favour of Fairtrade coffee, a high 57% of visitors remain passively indifferent to ethical coffee purchases. IMPORTANCE OF FAIRTRADE [COFFEE SHOP INTERVIEWS] Response to Prompt: It is important to me to order Fairtrade coffee whenever I can.* Percentage of Respondents 40% 34.2% 28.3% 30% 23.8% 20% 10% 8.7% 5.0% 0% Agree Strongly Agree Neither Disagree Disagree Strongly Note*: Scale 1 to 5; where 1 = Agree Strongly; 2 = Agree; 3 = Neither; 4 = Disagree; 5 = Disagree Strongly Source: Allegra Strategies Coffee Shop Interviews & Analysis, April 2007 Page 19 1. Background on Allegra Strategies 2. Consumer Food Mega-Trends 3. Market Landscape 4. Case Study: Branded Coffee Chain Segment 5. Future Sandwich Market Developments 6. Q&A Page 20 With its highly concentrated population of 60 million and increasingly brand-led, food-conscious consumers, the UK provides a fertile market for quality sandwich providers. • The UK is a hybrid between the US and Europe, combining a strong chain presence and convenience-driven behaviour, with the food and café culture of Europe • Growing consumer ‘food culture’ has emerged over the past 5 years, e.g the success of Waitrose, M&S food, Taste the Difference, Finest and branded food chains such as Pret, EAT and Carluccio’s • Café culture has risen exponentially over the past decade, with 47% of consumers visiting a coffee venue at least once per month. 67% of adult consumers eat out-of-the-home at least once per week • UK out-of home Food & Beverage market is estimated at £37 billion - Estimated 228 million daily meal occasions in the UK - UK day-time convenience F&B market is estimated at £14bn and £3.3bn in London - Sandwich market estimated at £3.5 - £3.7 billion • Significant growth of the branded coffee/sandwich chain market, currently at £1.3bn. Forecast to reach a market size in excess of 6,500 units with total sales of £2.5bn within a decade - Pret leads the branded food-focused coffee segment in sales and outlets, followed by EAT • M&S, Sainsbury’s Local, Tesco Express, Boots and Greggs provide strong competition within the lunch time/sandwich market, as does fast-growing chain Subway, with 986 stores currently Page 21 The UK out-of-home food and beverage market is estimated at £37 billion and is expected to grow at 1.6% per annum to 2010. Allegra estimates that the daytime on-the-move market at approximately £14 billion. ESTIMATED ANNUAL TURNOVER – UK OUT-OF-HOME FOOD & BEVERAGE MARKET £ Billions 40 35 33.2 33.9 34.1 35.3 35.7 36.5 37.0 37.6 38.1 38.9 Compound Annual Growth Rate 2006 - 2010F 1.6% 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2010F Source: ONS, Defra, Allegra Strategies Analysis, 2007 Page 22 The UK comprises approximately 130,000 Vat registered foodservice businesses with the total number of outlets estimated around 170,000. TOTAL NUMBER OF UK FOODSERVICE ENTERPRISES, 1996 – 2007E Restaurants and cafés account for a growing 50% No. of Businesses 140,000 130,000 121,030 114,795 120,000 110,000 100,000 107,460 109,270 105,345 105,315 106,440 3,655 4,015 4,140 4,380 3,845 11,645 11,410 11,195 11,030 12,110 111,920 4,620 10,955 4,850 10,775 117,385 5,065 10,525 5,220 10,405 124,080 5,335 5,325 70,000 44,385 43,925 43,690 43,690 46,355 10,220 130,825 5,375 10,200 10,250 Total Market 2.0% Canteens & Catering 3.6% Hotels 1.5% 90,000 80,000 128,315 share. Compound Annual Growth Rate 1996 – 2007E 47,395 48,430 44,020 44,850 52,815 54,400 56,975 2002 2003 2004 49,175 50,755 - 51,500 Bars & Pubs 1.4% 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 45,195 45,900 47,325 48,435 49,840 51,495 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 59,330 62,005 63,750 Restaurants & Cafes 3.2% 10,000 0 2005 2006 2007e Note: Figures are for VAT registered businesses ONLY and numbers are start of year figures Source: ONS Business Activity, Allegra Analysis, 2007 Page 23 McDonald’s remains the largest foodservice chain in terms of number of outlets. However, this gap is narrowing with Subway soon to reach 1,000 UK outlets. SELECTED UK SANDWICH/FOOD-TO-GO OPERATORS STORE NUMBERS, MAY 2007 Number of Outlets 1400 1,190 1200 1000 800 1,098 975 735 702 555 600 400 540 326 305 170 200 165 162 145 133 132 65 44 29 18 0 Mc Greggs Subway Tesco Boots Costa Starbuck SainsExpres Sand. Coffee s bury's Donald's s Local Caffè Caffè Bakers Pret A BB’s O'Brien's M&S Nero Ritazza Oven Manger Coffee & Simpl Muffins y Food EAT Coffee Bagel Benug Republic Factory o Source: Allegra Strategies Analysis, 2007 Page 24 A variety of players are present in the market, each targeting a specific niche. Allegra expects the main value growth for sandwich players to occur in the upper right-hand quartile. UK SANDWICH/FOOD-TO-GO OPERATOR POSITIONING MAP Price Starbucks ILLUSTRATIVE + Costa Caffè Nero Caffè Ritazza Benjy’s Bakers (Defunct) Oven Greggs Source: Allegra Strategies Analysis 2007 Waitrose Pret Benugo’s Sandwiche Subway EAT s McDonald’ M&S s Simply BB’s Sainsbury’ Food Coffee s Local + & Quality Food Credentials Muffins Tesco Boots Express Page 25 Recent Allegra industry research identified Rising food costs as the single biggest challenge for UK food & beverage players and is currently a major concern for sandwich manufacturers and sandwich retailers. Given intensifying competition and the need to differentiate means that Innovation/New Product Development is the second most important challenge currently. TOP 5 CHALLENGES MENTIONED BY UK FOOD & BEVERAGE EXECUTIVES, OCT. 2007 RANKING 1 2 3 4 5 KEY CHALLENGE Rising food/ingredient costs Innovation & new product development Sustainability/Environment Intense competition Attracting & retaining staff - Source: Allegra Strategies Analysis Food Strategies Forum Top of Mind Survey, Preliminary Data, October 2007 Page 26 1. Background on Allegra Strategies 2. Consumer Food Mega-Trends 3. Market Landscape 4. Case Study: Branded Coffee Chain Segment 5. Future Sandwich Market Developments 6. Q&A Page 27 MARKET OVERVIEW • Branded coffee shop market now totals 3,000 units, set to nearly double over the next decade • Regional growth will account for the lion’s share of growth in outlets at circa 10% per annum • London is still growing, forecast at 6-7% per annum for the next 3-4 years • Branded segment turnover is valued at £1.3 billion in 2007 and to exceed £2.5 billion by 2017 • Top 3 coffee-focused players: Starbucks, Costa Coffee and Caffè Nero accounted for 1,400 units and each adding 40-60 outlets per year • Branded food-focused players Pret A Manger and EAT have accelerated growth plans • UK café culture is here to stay. The popularity of coffee bars continues to grow as a significant proportion of UK consumers make coffee shops part of their daily lives • Coffee shops have become important venues not only to drink coffee and other beverages, but also to eat, relax, socialise and conduct business meetings • Major branded chains Starbucks, Costa Coffee, Caffè Nero, Pret A Manger and M&S Cafés have set strong benchmarks on product variety, coffee quality and store environments • Consumers now expect these features across a growing set of UK foodservice, leisure and shopping venues • An increasingly important channel for sandwich manufacturers Page 28 The UK branded coffee market has quadrupled since 1999 to reach an estimated 3,000 outlets a and accounting for 30% of the defined coffee shop market in 2007. Allegra predicts the branded market to grow by more than 8% to 2010 and ultimately to double within 10 years. Compound Annual Growth Rate Dec 2006 - Dec 2010F TOTAL NUMBER OF UK COFFEE SHOP OUTLETS, BY TYPE, DEC 1997 - DEC 2010F No. of Outlets 11,000 10,795 Total Market 4.2% 1,651 Non-specialists -Hotels -Supermarkets -Department/Book stores -Service Stations 5.5% Independent Operators 0.9% Branded Chains -Coffee Focused -Food-Focused 8.6% 10,443 10,077 10,000 9,651 9,171 9,000 8,746 8,322 7,674 8,000 1,160 7,305 6,843 7,000 6,160 6,000 5,400 796 1,252 4,756 485 503 1,335 1,320 1,405 714 5,092 518 522 4,453 4,000 1,484 1,565 897 5,093 5,000 9,285 4,587 4,760 4,870 4,967 4,992 5,125 5,158 5,041 4,345 4,260 3,000 3,900 4,000 4,100 2,000 1,000 0 371 590 778 1,382 1,784 2,056 2,190 2,402 2,624 2,869 2,973 Dec-97 Dec-98 Aug-99 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Apr-07 *Note: Non-specialist segment excludes branded chains who have partnered with non-specialist players Source: Allegra Strategies Industry Interviews and Analysis, 2007 3,502 3,752 3,985 3,205 Dec07F Dec08F Dec09F Dec10F Page 29 Coffee-focused segment, e.g. Starbucks, Costa Coffee and Caffè Nero is set to grow at 9% to 2010 vs. 8% for the food-focused segment, e.g. Pret and Eat. TOTAL NUMBER OF UK BRANDED COFFEE SHOP OUTLETS, BY SEGMENT, DEC. 2000 – DEC. 2010F No. of Outlets 4,500 3,985 4,000 3,752 3,502 3,500 3,205 2,624 2,424 2,500 1,000 500 1,382 Coffee-Focused 8.9% 780 746 663 558 468 1,226 7.6% 716 1,784 635 1,500 Food-Focused 722 2,190 2,030 2,000 969 910 850 2,869 3,000 Compound Annual Growth Rate Dec 2006 - Dec 2010F Total Branded Chain Market 8.6% 1,395 1,527 Dec-02 Dec-03 1,708 1,878 2,147 2,425 2,652 2,843 3,016 914 0 Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07F Dec-08F Dec-09F Dec-10F Source: Allegra Strategies Industry Interviews and Analysis, 2007 Page 30 COFFEE SHOP CONSUMER RESEARCH OVERVIEW • 24% of the UK adult population or approximately 11 million consumers visit coffee shop at least once per week. 47% of UK adults – 20 million individuals – visit at least once per month • 76% tend to visit their favourite coffee shop vs. 74% in 2005, strengthening brand loyalty • Location is the main factor influencing a consumer’s choice of a given coffee shop/sandwich shop, at 63% in 2007 vs. 67% in 2005 • Atmosphere has grown in importance as a key influencing factor for UK coffee shop visitors • Sandwiches are purchased on a regular basis by 50% of coffee shop visitors • Take-away is more important than in the past 12-18 months according to 38% of visitors • Brand awareness of coffee and sandwich bar brands is high and growing • Allegra’s national telephone sample indicated brand awareness of 10.9 brands on average across the UK, revealing how far branded chains have penetrated the UK consumer mindset • Only 12% of adults UK rank an independent coffee shop as their favourite • Pret A Manger leads in the food-focused segment with leadership in food quality and service • Caffè Nero ranks highest among high street chains on overall key success factors Page 31 According to Allegra’s national telephone sample, 24% of the UK adult population, approximately 11 million individuals, visit coffee shops at least once per week. 47% of the adult population, more than 20 million consumers, visit coffee shops at least once per month. FREQUENCY OF VISITS [CONSUMER TELEPHONE INTERVIEWS] Response to Question: In general, how often do you visit coffee shops? Percentage of Respondents 50% 43.6% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 23.5% 20% 15.5% 15% 9.3% 8.1% 10% 5% 0% Once a week Once a fortnight Once a month Less than once a month Very rarely / never Source: Allegra Strategies Household Telephone Interviews and Analysis, April 2007 Page 32 25% of coffee shop visitors frequently purchase food items within coffee bars. A further 47% of customers occasionally make food purchases in coffee shops. Only 16.5% of customers never buy food in coffee shops. FREQUENCY OF FOOD PURCHASED IN COFFEE SHOPS [COFFEE SHOP INTERVIEWS] Response to Question: Do you normally purchase food with your drink in coffee shops? Percentage of Respondents 50% 47.3% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25.1% 25% 20% 16.5% 15% 11.2% 10% 5% 0% Often Sometimes Rarely Never Source: Allegra Strategies Coffee Shop Interviews & Analysis, April 2007 Page 33 1. Background on Allegra Strategies 2. Consumer Food Mega-Trends 3. Market Landscape 4. Case Study: Branded Coffee Chain Segment 5. Future Sandwich Market Developments 6. Q&A Page 34 Allegra’s national research highlights themes of healthy eating, local origin of products and exploring new tastes to be important on-going and future trends. Despite trends to premiumisation, value-for-money will continue to be important. UK CONSUMERS’ EXPECTED FUTURE CONCERNS AND INTERESTS [NATIONAL FOOD BUYING RESEARCH] In the years to come, what will you be generally more focused on? Percentage 80% 69.8% 70% 60% 50% 43.8% 40% 34.1% 33.3% 30.8% 30% 21.2% 20% 10% 0% Healthy eating Greater value-formoney Local origin of products Exploring new tastes Food safety Ethical consumption Note: Multiple responses; answers were prompted and randomised when asked Source: Allegra Strategies National Food Buying Behaviour Interviews and Analysis, 2006 Page 35 Allegra’s Food Strategy Forum has examined the corporate competencies required to lead in the rapidly evolving Food & Beverage sector. EMERGING FRONTIER OF CRITICAL CORPORATE COMPETENCIES ILLUSTRATIVE High Importance Price Competitiveness COMPETITIVE FRONTIER Service Excellence Cost-efficiency Brand Authenticity Production Volumes Pre-defined Production Runs Flexible Operations Multi-reach Capacity to Innovate Talent Management Product Freshness Traditional Working Practices Customised Choice Ethical Values Premium Provenance Collaborative Mindset Customer Experience Declining Importance Rising Importance Low Importance Page 36 FUTURE CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR • Eating out more • More informed • More aware of ‘food culture’ • More demanding in terms of quality and service • Busier and more mobile • More informal • More adventurous • Variety-driven • Complex set of value expectations Page 37 FUTURE PRODUCT DEVELOPMENTS • Healthier • Tasty and flavoursome • Fresh and Natural • Wider variety and more exotic fillings (incl. Ethnic) • Artisanal breads • Local provenance • Premium • Convenience • Organics • Smaller portions • Priced to reflect segmentation Page 38 FUTURE ROUTES TO MARKET • More diverse: • Foodservice • Traditional Retail and Convenience formats • Widening set of non-food players • Independent sandwich bars • Workplace • More sophisticated, more segmented • Great emphasis on branded chain concepts • Increased competition • Sandwiches increasingly competing against other products for shelf space • In the short-term, more cost-driven due to food price rises Page 39 FUTURE WINNING BRAND CREDENTIALS • Innovative packaging • Authentic • Ethical • Informative • Honest • Convenient • Communicate a compelling story • Deliver consumer 'Experience' Page 40 1. Background on Allegra Strategies 2. Consumer Food Mega-Trends 3. Market Landscape 4. Case Study: Branded Coffee Chain Segment 5. Future Sandwich Market Developments 6. Q&A Page 41