TEAM D LOW FAT SAFFRON ICE CREAM WITH ROSE WATER
UNIT 5: Product Launch &
Evaluation
24/08/2011
Balkrishna Holay
Elissavet Terzi
Ifeanyi Onwuka
Maryam Afzali Haji Dela
Mengli Li
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TEAM D LOW FAT SAFFRON ICE CREAM WITH ROSE WATER
Executive Summary –
Shelf-life is the time a prepared food item will remain fresh, healthy to eat and keep its freshest
taste. The factors that affect the self-life of the ice cream are the microorganisms, the temperature and the
humidity. Because ice cream is a frozen food and it has a long self-life (approximately 6 months under
proper storage conditions) the main factor is the storage conditions that makes the ice cream acceptable or
not. The factors that are affected are the creaminess, the melting property and the presence of ice crystals.
All these factors have a relation to the texture of the ice cream. The accelerated shelf life method used
was fluctuations in temperature for predetermined time intervals and then the samples undergone this test
are been visually assessed by panellist and asked whether they can consume the ice cream or not. The
results obtained from the panellists were analyzed using R. However the shelf life of our product is
undetermined because the method used to determine needs longer time and it was not possible as we had
time limitation.
The United Kingdom market after facing recession is on the growth stage with lots of options to
do business. With the income of the people rising and stable political condition more and more companies
are seeing UK as a good manufacturing aspect. People in UK who are more inclined towards eating
healthier and good quality products are asking for different variety of products to buy and eat. MEBI’s
seeing this opportunity would be launching low fat saffron ice cream with rose water in March 2012,
which will be suitable for all age groups, and the market being vast with lots of gap in this section
MEBI’s would be targeting Yorkshire market in the first year of product launch, the competitors are not
having much varieties of ice cream in this section which will help MEBI’s in gaining more market share
with the help of advertisement and sales promotion.
In the second year of the company it will try and target broader market which will include the
whole of UK, this can be possible only after being successful in the targeted market. In this report the
author has tried to draft a complete marketing plan with all the elements of marketing mix, competitors
analysis PEST and by matching all the micro and macro environmental factors of the company a
marketing plan has been created with controls explained in detailed which will help in keeping track of all
different situations and try to overcome them. The main aim of MEBI’s in the first year is to gain more
market share with customer loyalty and more awareness by making product available in all the major
retailers as well as the small retailers, this will help MEBI’s in being a big fish in a small pond for the first
year.
When launching our new product, all individuals are considered as potential customers, especially
those indulging ice cream while suffering from fat problems. The market will be focusing on the middle
to upper class who are seeking healthier dairy product and with specific buying preferences. The age of
consumers are supposed to arrange from 10 to 60. We are determined to set the product launch from
March, 2012 as summer begins. The promotion plan will last for 8 weeks by attractive sales methods.
A test launch is also conducted; the objective of test launch of product is to test the reflection of
the consumers if they can accept the new kind of low fat ice cream. The product sensory test and
questionnaire would be helpful to receive the response of the participants. The results of the data were
recorded and analyzed well. The result indicates that all the people can accept our product due to the
healthy function and special taste and would definitely buy it once the product is commercially available
because of the amazingly low price & great quality. Customers’ satisfaction proves the success of our
product and good market potential.
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Shelf-life
The shelf life of a food can be defined as the time period within which the food is safe to
consume and/or has an acceptable quality to consumers (FU and LABUZA. (No year)). The basic factor
that affects the shelf-life of ice cream is temperature. Temperature can cause loss of quality in our
product. As a result, the texture of the ice cream is changed and this has an effect in the loss of the
desirable texture.
Other factors that affect the self-life of ice cream are sandiness (lactose crystallization), loss of
flavour and disruption of emulsion system. Also, another effect is the growth of crystals known as heat
shock.
Heat shock occurs when ice cream is allowed to melt and refreeze, wwhen this happens, water
molecules in the ice cream can join together to form larger ice crystals, which can give the ice cream an
icy, grainy texture, every time this warming and refreezing cycle happens, the ice cream experiences more
heat shock, which is often called “freezer burn” (Turkeyhill, 2006).
The behavior of a hazard function for the shelf life of food products can be understood by
examining how a frozen food product begins its journey to many distribution outlets for consumption.
The first failures may occur owing to a failure in the process itself, faulty packaging, extreme initial
product abuse and environmental stresses to which the product is subjected.
Early failure should not be taken as a true failure relative to the shelf life of the product unless it
represents the normal condition. The shelf-life of a new product should at least exceed the minimum
distribution time required from the processor to the consumer.
Shelf-life testing method was used in order to define the self-life of the ice cream product. The
objectives were several factors such as flavor, hardening regimes and formula manufacturing specifics.
The purpose is to know if there are any changes of packaging during the storage conditions or in the
distribution conditions. Shelf life experiments are accelerated to evaluate the effects of various
formulation and processing parameters on shelf life stability of the product being developed for the long
shelf life period for a frozen food stored under normal freezing conditions. In addition, temperature
fluctuations may occur in distribution and retail holding for frozen storage. In general, the self-life is the
percentage of the consumers a company is willing to displease. If a product is100% acceptable and the
high cost of the ingredients are absolute control up to point of consumption, then there will be some
people who will get foods beyond shelf life. The goal is to keep this as small as possible. Another very
important parameter in the shelf life the existing product that should be monitored on a regular basis and
the factors that affects are the production volume and environmental conditions to which the product is
exposed (or even abused) up to the point of consumption. During storage and transportation distribution,
temperature conditions are often less than ideal and temperature abuses can occur. The factor that is
related to quality loss characteristics is temperature, even when all the other factors are controlled through
effective packaging and maintained at the desirable levels. Ideally, what would be needed is a cost
effective way to either maintain temperature or to individually monitor the temperature conditions of food
products throughout distribution in order to indicate their real quality state.
Shelf life testing
Determination of shelf life of ice cream by a single method is impractical because several factors
(formula, manufacturing specifics, flavor, package size and hardening regimes) will have to be specified
and storage life in the context of these specifications will have to be considered. Storage conditions and
the amplitude and frequency of temperature fluctuations also have to be specified (Kilara, 1993).
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Achieving accelerated shelf life testing of textural changes involves exposing ice cream to
repeated and extreme changes in its storage temperature. At appropriate intervals during this cycling,
sensory evaluation is applied to assess the effects of the treatment, and the extent of treatment needed for
the development of detectable crystals is recorded. The conditions of this exposure - temperature and time
– should be as consistent between tests as possible (Tharp & Young)
Methodology and conditions used in the determination of shelf life of our product
The method used for the shelf life test was adapted from Young 1992, (cited in Kilara, 1993). To
estimate the shelf life of our product, samples were stored at -18oC and 25oC. Ice cream should be stored
below –18°C but the suggested tolerance range is between -15 to -25°C (FSA, Scotland, 2005).
These temperatures (-18oC and -25oC) were selected because these are the temperature most
likely to be used for storage in the factory, during distribution and at storage in customers freezers. The
samples were kept at room temp to allow them melt for 6.30 and 13mins. In the original method used by
Young 1992, 1.9l of ice cream samples were left out for 15 and 30mins. This time is the estimated time it
takes for customers to travel from the point of purchase to their homes, it could also represent the duration
ice cream is left outside the freezer during consumption by the consumer. Because we were using 50ml of
sample, mathematically the time period was worked out to approximately 6.30mins and 13mins. Since the
sample size is small any much longer duration will result in the samples melting completely. The samples
were brought out for 6.30 and 13mins twice daily for 4 days –this can be translated to 8 days because it
was carried out twice daily for 4 days. A reference sample was left constantly in the freezer at -25oC for
four days.
After each day, a panel of 40 assessors was asked to determine if they would be willing to eat the
samples judging only from the sight (colour and appearance) by answering yes or no. using R script data
obtained was analyzed. The results are interpreted based on if 50% of the assessor were willing to
consume the product. At -25oC for 6.30 minutes 50% of the assessors were not willing to eat the ice
cream after approximately 5 day (this means 10 days considering the test was done twice daily). At -25oC
for 13minutes would not consume the ice cream after approximately 5 days (10days).-18oC for 6.30
minutes 50% of the assessors were not willing to eat the ice cream after approximately 5 days (10 days). 18oC for 13 minutes 50% of the assessors were not willing to eat the ice cream after approximately 4
days (8 days). These results are in the appendix.
After four days, the 4 samples were viewed in the microscope. The figures are shown in the
appendix below. It can be seen that all the samples have large ice crystals; this is as a result of freezing
and defrosting continuously.
This method has some shortcomings. It produces a gradient of temperature increase from the
outside of the product to its core that results in the development of a similar gradient of ice crystal growth.
This can produce a lack of agreement between the observations of the members of the evaluation panel
depending upon the location of the source of the portion which each has evaluated (Tharp & Young).
Table 1 which has been adapted from Young 1992, cited in Kilara, 1993, shows the methodology
and conditions used in the determination of shelf life of our product
Table 1: Conditions encountered for storage and shelf life determination of ice cream.
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Air temperature
Time per cycle
Total
days
Comments
-25oC
-25/ Room
temperature /-25
-18/ Room
temperature /-18
Reference sample
Twice daily
4
4
Twice daily
4
50ml of sample left in freezer untouched
Two 50ml samples of ice cream kept at room temperature for
6.30minutes and 13minutes
Two 50ml samples of ice cream kept at room temperature for
6.30minutes and 13minutes
Source Young 1992, cited in Kilara, 1993
The duration of the shelf life of our product is still inconclusive, this is because a much longer
length of time is needed to conduct a proper shelf life test even if it is accelerated shelf life testing.
However if the shelf life of our product is to be determined, the above method will be used for a longer
period of time.
Maintaining Shelf-life
To maintain the shelf life of ice cream, it is necessary to formulate the ice cream properly, freeze
it quickly in a well-maintained barrel freezer, and harden the ice cream rapidly. It is also important to
avoid temperature fluctuations during storage and distribution and educate retailers and consumers about
shelf stability (Goff (no year)).
Marketing Plan
Marketing Objectives for MEBI’s
1.
2.
3.
4.
To sale 200,000 litres of ice cream in first season (5 months).
To achieve 5% markets share in 5 years.
Create awareness of the product of 70% in the first year.
To have product available in all the major retailers in the first year of launch.
Market background for (UK)
On average, each person in the UK eats 9 liters of ice cream every year (Ice cream Alliance,
2011).The ice cream market has been experiencing sales in recent years. As the markets increase people’s
attentions are turning towards healthy eating which creates a big gap for potential market of healthy
indulgent products. Ice cream, which is the ultimate indulgence for many people, more companies are
focusing on providing healthier, lower fat and lighter ice cream for health-conscious consumers to avoid
obesity or diabetes. Nowadays, more and more companies are focusing on using high quality and
premium ingredients and making up by upper-scale packaging to attract middle and upper class. As a
result the self-cost of healthier ice cream would be higher and premium ice cream is inevitable. Besides
the market of ice cream raw material such as milk, sugar would also affect the ice cream market.
United Kingdom Market Analysis using PEST (macro analysis).
Market analysis would be done by the use of PEST. PEST helps in analysing macro
environmental factors of United Kingdom (UK) which helps in creating business strategy for the
company. PEST consists of Political, Economic, Social and Technological factors.
Table No2 PEST
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TEAM D LOW FAT SAFFRON ICE CREAM WITH ROSE WATER
PEST
Political
Economic
al
Social
Technolo
gical













Description
Due to government policies prices are rising in all the sectors (VAT increased from 17.5 to 20%)
Stable government encouraging manufacture sector as well as supporting developing of sustainable food
production.
UK economy currently faces inflation of 4.4% (Allen, 2011).
Unemployment in UK is 8%. UK currently stands in fourth position after US.
The annual growth rate for 2011 is 0.70% which has increased from 2008 which was -5%.
Average population age of UK is 39.7 as per 2010.
Average income has increased by 2.1% in 2010
Due to education more people are having lifestyle change which is inkling them towards health awareness and
hence they buy more healthy products.
Improved transportation and technology means less reliance on local or seasonal produce.
UK being a first world country is technologically more advanced with more research and development facilities.
Being technologically sound less man power is needed with more output.
Technology advancement helps in customer satisfaction.
UK produces 8% of the worlds scientific papers which is 12% only second to US.
Source: 1.T.A. Lloyd, C.W. Morgan. Davidson, A. Halunga, S. McCorriston, 28th April 2011. 2. HM Revenue & Customs, 2010. 3. Allen. G
2011, 4. Office for National Statistics, 2011, 5. BBC GCSE Bitesize.
Competitors Market Analysis for MEBI’s
Competitors Marketing Mix:Using the 4P’s of marketing mix:- The main company UNILEVER has different products in the ice cream
market with differentiated product offerings the various brands that are under UNILEVER are 1)HaagenDaz’s, 2) Carte D’Or, 3) Ben & Jerry’s, 4) Walls.
Table No-3 Competitors Analysis for Ice cream market.
Prod
uct
Price
Place
Prom
otion
Haagen-Daz’s
Haagen-Daz’s
Cookie Dough ice
cream
500ml
(Premium product).
Carte D’Or
Carte
D’Or
light
vanilla 1ltr
£4.15
£3.45
Available in all the
small
&
large
retailers like ASDA,
Morrison’s, TESCO,
Sainsbury’s.
They
have sales of the
product all over UK.
They do promotions
monthly with the
help of large retailers
and provide 50% off
on their normal price.
Have sales all over
UK. In all the major
retail outlets.
With the help of
retailers they are able
to sell it at offers like
buy 1 get 1 free which
may be monthly or
after 5 weeks.
Ben & Jerry’s
1) Ben & Jerry’s
cookie
dough,
2.phish, 3. Chocolate
fudge brownie, 4.
caramel chew chew
(for children) all
products
are
available in 500ml
(Premium product)
1. £4.45, 2. £2.22, 3.
£2.22, 4. £2.22
They target mainly
the major retailers.
Walls
1) Walls cream of
Cornish(1ltr), 2.soft
scoop vanilla (2ltr),
3.viennetta
vanilla/mint (650ml).
Tesco
1.TESCO caramella
(1ltr),
2.
Chocolationo
(900ml),
3.
Vanellitta (1ltr), 4.
Cherrylicious
(900ml)
1. £2.8, 2. £1.92, 3.
£1.00
Being a Unilever
brand it’s available all
over UK and in all
major retail outlets.
They mostly have
offer for 10 days and
slash the rates to half
price.
The offer ranges from
to 30 to 50% off on
the
actual
price
varying according to
the place.
1. £1.65, 2. £1.99,
3.1.65, 4. £2.20
Have 1905 outlets all
over UK with its
own supply chain.
Considerate mostly
major cities. Has
almost reached to
every place in UK.
Mostly
sell
the
products cheap than
its competitors by
providing offers like
buy 1 get 1 free.
Source: TESCO, 2011
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Marketing mix for MEBI’s using the 4 P’s (micro analysis):Table No-3 Marketing Mix for MEBI’s
4P’s
Description
Product
Healthy product with saffron flavour, 500ml, liked by people of all ages, Good quality, Suitable for people routing for
good quality.
Price
Price being highly competitive which is lower than most of the competitors except retailers who sell their product at
lower price (TESCO). Customers asking for lower price high quality which our product has with new flavour and
taste is advantageous for us.
Would target mostly Yorkshire covering all the major retailers as well as small retailers to make the product available
easily to the local public, and providing convenience.
Would mostly do promotions 3 weekly which most of the competitors don’t do, and would also be supported by the
advertisement giving product information and availability.
Place
Promotion
Promotion Mix: A successful promotion mix uses a balance of its five tools in a planned and structured way.
Table No-4 Promotion Mix
Type
Advertising
Description
Time & Date
T.V, radio & news papers (Sun Times), cinema halls.
Six months from the launch
date (March to September).
22nd March to 19th April (Half
price & Buy 1 get 1 Free).
Sales Promotion
Discount offers like Buy 1 get 1 Free, half price.
MEBI’s promotions help in simulating buying.
Personnel selling
Sales persons giving free samples outside Malls, supermarkets.
From 1st March for 3 weeks
(Free sample).
Direct marketing
Opening of website. (During sales promotion we will be noting down
personal email ID while giving free samples, for notifying about new
product launches). Will provide all the information of all the products
available showcasing the brand name which help in increasing brand image.
Notification from 15th March
till 30th September.
E-advertisement
We will do advertisement on the sites of all the major retailers, if needed we
will do advertisement on e.g. Yahoo.
In the next season i.e. 2013
SWOT AnalysisTable No-5 Current situation analysis of MEBI’s.
Strength
1) The company has strong finances and can back new projects.
2) Low price
3) Long product shelf life.
4) Good promotion schemes.
Opportunity
1) Building brand image and having a strong brand with the help of
advertisement.
2) Maintaining better quality product- with the help of research and
development.
3) Younger audience searching for convenience products.
4) New product development- will help in differentiation.
5)UK market- will cover all the four sectors of UK
6) Brand awareness- with the help of sales promotions.
7) Fewer competitors 3 to 4 around our price range.
8) Increase in sale of our product by future forecasted sales.
9) Gap in the market for low fat ice cream.
10) Health conscious customers looking for good quality products.
UNIT V
Weakness
1) The firm is New in market with no experience of the
industry.
2) Financial Situation as compared to competitors.
3) Don’t have retail shops.
4) Large bargaining power of suppliers/retailers.
5) High inventory cost.
Threats
1) Rising labour cost
2) Established players are superior to MEBI’s in finance,
production and operations.
3) Strongest brand in the market Unilever.
4) Customers loyalty towards old brands
5) Want more sales promotion with cheap product offerings &
better quality which will affect our return on income.
6) Cheaper products available in market
7) Retailers own labels are strong.
8) Frequent switching of some segments of customers.
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Marketing Strategy-After the analysing all the company strengths and weakness opportunities and
threats of MEBI’s we can form a strategy with the help of PORTER’s Generic strategies model.
PORTER’s Generic Strategies: - Helps in analysing Competitive strategy for MEBI’s
Differentiation
Cost
Broad
Differentiation
Cost
Leader
Narrow
Differentiation
Focus
Cost
Focuser
Scope
By using the porters generic strategy MEBI’s opt for narrow market by focusing only on the Yorkshire
market by providing products at lower cost. This strategy will help MEBI’s to gain more customer
loyalty, being more competitive in the market, can focus on the targeted customers more by offering
better quality and increase in sales. This strategy will also help in gaining more market share and form a
base for future expansion.
Once the company grows with increased knowledge of the market and more customer loyalty
then in the second phase MEBI’s can enter broader scope.
STP Analysis: - Segmenting, Targeting & Positioning.
(Source: Sally et al., 2006)
IMPLEMENTATIONS –
Product Ice cream is one of the most loved desserts by everyone, but there’s less availability of healthy ice
creams in market due to the acceptability issues with texture, smoothness, creaminess, etc. The earlier
testing results showed the product is liked by the entire panellist keeping all in mind. We have developed
a healthy ice cream ‘Low Fat Saffron Ice cream with Rose water’ which will be available in an
attractive 500ml pack. This will be suitable for all the age groups who are seeking health conscious open
to try different brand products.
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Our product quality is high like that of a premium ice cream with great taste high quality and use
of all natural ingredients. The fat content of our ice cream is 4.45%, energy- 336.8KJ/100ml. This product
is a convenience product which would be easily available.
Product life cycle-
Our product on the product life cycle graph is where the star is, so based on this our organisations
marketing policies will be adjusted.
Place –
As said earlier MEBI’s will be first targeting the Yorkshire market because on an average, each
person in the UK eats 9 litres of ice cream every year. Whereas the population of Yorkshire & The
Humber is over 5.3 millions (Office for National Statistics, 2011) therefore to achieve the objective of
MEBI’s i.e. selling 200,000 litres of ice cream in first season is possible (Ice cream Alliance, 2011). And
the next year it will enter the southern UK and the following year will cover the whole UK. So in order to
cover all these areas we will need to have an efficient and effective distribution channel which will enable
more sales and get a warm reception from the retailers. We will be using the following type of
distribution channel.
(Source: Sally et al., 2006)
This channel will be used to reach the small and large retail shops, hotels, corner shops, &
restaurants and large retailers like TESCO, ASDA, Morrison’s, Sainsbury’s. This channel help do mass
distribution; it will also help in reaching the consumers who don’t have easy access to major retailers and
thus we can make our product available to them, will also help us to reach almost all the corners of every
area.
Price –
Price of our product will be less i.e. £1.60 for 500ml & £1 for 1 litre as compared to other
products available in the market. The price can be kept low as we manufacture our product in Yorkshire
and initially we are targeting only Yorkshire area therefore other expenses like transportation would be
less. Being lower Priced we can gain more sales and create more brand loyalty of our product in new
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market. Price has a psychological impact on the consumer and being lower priced than the competitors
product would help in being more competitive which help in the strategy of having more market share in
the narrow market. Lower price strategy will encourage more customers to try the product and on tasting
the product they will discover the high quality of our product and so this will create a value for money
impression about the product in the minds of the consumer. After finding out that the product has great
new flavour and also has many health benefits and still it’s a cheap product consumers will genuinely
start buying our product, and also help in word-of-mouth publicity.
Promotion –
Being a new product promotion is very important for brand awareness and providing information
about the product features and the availability. The promotion will mainly be classified into two types
mainly advertisement and sales promotion. These two types of promotion will help us improve awareness
about our product and brand and will also help increase sales.
1. Sales Promotion:
For the Customers: The promotions will take place at mainly crowded places E.g. outside Malls
and superstores by our salesmen standing outside the places and providing free taste samples and
also give them leaflets with product information. More promotions like buy one get one free, half
price that will be available to attract and inform more consumers about the new product.
For the Retailers when they buy in bulk they will be given large discount so as to encourage
them to keep more of MEBI’s products.

2. Advertisement –

For the Customers: Advertisements on T.V (During E.P.L. matches), Radio (During Evenings
106 Capital FM), Newspapers (Sun Times), in cinema halls during summer vacations to target
younger crowd.
For the Retailers: The advertisement offerings would also be supported by placing banners and
poster outside the superstores as well as at the point of sales.

The placement of the advertisement needs to be perfect so as to fulfil our first priority to get the
attention of our target audience who are 15to 60 year old.
Controls –
Table No-6 Controls
Objectives
Controls
 To sale 200,000 litres of ice
cream in the first season.
 To achieve 5% markets share in
first 5 years.
 After 3months after the launch of the product the sales would be checked according to
the demand in market for our product.
 At the end of every year it will be checked that how much market share MEBI’s has
achieved by the time and according to that the promotions will be increased.
 Create awareness of the product
of 70% in the first year.
 70% product awareness in the first year in Yorkshire region---- market research will
be carried out after first 3 months to check the awareness level in the Yorkshire
region.
 To have our product in 90% of the retail stores----- after first 5 months this objective
has to be checked and judged and according decisions would be taken.
 To have product available in all
the major retailers in the first
year of launch.
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Contingency plan: - If the above plan fails to stand up to the expectations of the company then MEBI’s
will directly sell the product to the big retailers and to the vans selling ice cream in their own label brands.
Innovation level of the product:
In order to find out the customers’ opinions on the new healthy ice cream which is suitable for all
age groups and the people who are suffering from obesity, the research is launched within a random
selected 45 participants of different ages. 26 of them were females and 19 males. The materials used to
collect the information were MEBI’s ice cream samples and questionnaires. The questionnaire is designed
focusing on the age group of customers, the frequency of purchasing ice cream, the competitor brand they
used to buy, whether the price is reasonable and if they will accept our product. Pamphlets including brief
introduction of the product will also be given to those who are interested in MEBI’s ice cream.
Results: The pie chart below shows the ice cream brands that participants used to buy.
It’s obvious that the most popular product is from Wall’s which occupies 44.4%, and the second
largest is Ben & Jerry’s (31.1%). Considering the relatively high price, Haagen-dazs only accounts for
17.8%. In addition, the preference test shows that all the participants are satisfied with the product’s taste
and will to buy our product after it is commercially launched. Every participant thought it was healthy and
what’s more important; the price is really cheap and attractive. As a result, MEBI’s low fat saffron ice
cream with rose water has a great market potential.
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References –
FOOD STANDARDS AGENCY SCOTLAND (2005). Food safety guide for farmers in Scotland. Issue 1
[ONLINE],
[Assessed
18
August,
2011].
Available
from:
http://www.food.gov.uk/multimedia/pdfs/scotfarmersmarket.pdf
FU B., and T.P. LABUZA. (no year) . Shelf Life Testing: Procedures and Prediction Methods for Frozen
Foods.
[ONLINE].
Assessed
August
18,
2011.
Available
from
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/summary?doi=10.1.1.24.443
Goff H.D., (no year) Dairy Science and technology education. [ONLINE]. Assessed August 18, 2011.
Available online from: http://www.foodscience.uoguelph.ca/dairyedu/icshelflife.html
KILARA A., Shelf life of ice cream and frozen desserts: In G. CHARALAMBOUS Shelf life studies of
foods and beverage: Chemical Biological, physical and nutritional aspects (1993). Elsevier science
publishers
Tharp & Young: On Ice cream [ONLINE], [Accessed 18 August 2011]. Available from:
http://www.onicecream.com/qa_accel_shelflife.htm
TURKEYHILL, (2006). Ice Cream Dictionary: "Heat Shock [ONLINE]. Assessed on August 10 2011,
Available from:
http://icecreamjournal.turkeyhill.com/index.php/2006/12/04/ice-cream-dictionary-heat-shock/
Ice cream Alliance, 2011, Facts About Ice Cream, Accessed on 18 th August 2011, Available from:
http://www.ice-cream.org/facts-types-and-usage-of-ice-cream-4.htm
T.A. Lloyd, C.W. Morgan (University of Nottingham), J. Davidson, A. Halunga, S. McCorriston
(University of Exeter), 28th April 2011, Retail Food Price Inflation Modeling Project, [Accessed on 18th
August 2011], Available from: http://archive.defra.gov.uk/foodfarm/food/pdf/retail-foodprice110809.pdf
HM Revenue & Customs, 2010, Increase in the standard rate of VAT to 20 per cent, [Accessed on 18th
August 2011], Available at: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/vat/forms-rates/rates/rate-increase.htm
Allen. G, 2011, Inflation: Economic Indicators page – Commons Library Standard Note,
http://www.parliament.uk/briefing-papers/SN02792
Office for National Statistics, 2011, Population Estimates, [Accessed on 17th August 2011], Available
from: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=6
BBC GCSE Bitesize, Design & Technology: Social & Environmental issues, Accessed on:17 th August
2011,
Available
from:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/design/foodtech/socialenvironmentalissuesrev1.shtml
TESCO,
2011,
Groceries,
Accessed
on
17th
August
2011.
Available
http://www.tesco.com/groceries/product/search/default.aspx?searchBox=ice%20cream
UNIT V
from:
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TEAM D LOW FAT SAFFRON ICE CREAM WITH ROSE WATER
Appendix
> sslife <- function(data, tiempos = c(0, 1, 2, 3, 4), codiresp = c("si",
"no"),model="weibull",percent=c(10,25,50))
+{
+
library(survival)
+
totalcases <- dim(data)[1]
+ casesdata <- cbind(1:totalcases, data)
+ casesok <- casesdata[, 1][data[, 2] == codiresp[1]]
+ numindok <- length(casesok)
+ numtimes <- length(tiempos)
+ id <- data[casesok, 1]
+ respcod <- data[casesok, 2:dim(data)[2]]
+ respnum <- matrix(rep(1, numindok * numtimes), ncol = numtimes)
+ respnum[respcod == codiresp[2]] <- 0
+ ti <- rep(tiempos[1], numindok)
+ ts <- rep(tiempos[numtimes], numindok)
+ cens <- rep("interval", numindok)
+ censcod <- rep(3, numindok)
+ for(i in 1:numindok) {
+ if(respnum[i, numtimes] == 1) {
+ ti[i] <- tiempos[numtimes]
+ ts[i] <- tiempos[numtimes]
+ cens[i] <- "right"
+ censcod[i] <- 0
+}
+ else {
+ inf <- 1
+ while(respnum[i, inf + 1] == 1) inf <- inf + 1
+ sup <- numtimes
+ while(respnum[i, sup - 1] == 0) sup <- sup - 1
+ if(inf == 1) {
+ ti[i] <- tiempos[sup]
+ ts[i] <- tiempos[sup]
+ cens[i] <- "left"
+ censcod[i] <- 2
+}
+ else {
+ ti[i] <- tiempos[inf]
+ ts[i] <- tiempos[sup]
+}
+ prop<-percent/100
+
pp1<-data.frame(id, ti, ts, cens, censcod)
+
pp2<-survreg(Surv(ti,ts,censcod,type="interval")~1,dist=model)
+
pp4<-predict(pp2,newdata=data.frame(1),type = "uquantile", p = prop, se.fit = T)
+
ci3 <- cbind(pp4$fit,pp4$fit - 1.96 * pp4$se.fit,pp4$fit + 1.96 * pp4$se.fit)
UNIT V
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TEAM D LOW FAT SAFFRON ICE CREAM WITH ROSE WATER
+ if (model=="weibull"|model=="lognormal"|model=="loglogistic"|model=="exponential") {
+
ci3 <- exp(ci3)
+
pp4$se.fit<-pp4$se.fit*ci3[,1]}
+
ci2<-cbind(ci3,pp4$se.fit)
+
mu <- c(pp2$coefficients,pp2$coefficients - 1.96 * sqrt(pp2$var[1,1]),pp2$coefficients +
1.96 * sqrt(pp2$var[1,1]))
+ if (model=="exponential") {
+
sigma<-c(NA,NA,NA)}
+ else {
+
si<-exp(pp2$icoef[2])
+
sigma<-c(si,exp(log(si)-1.96*sqrt(pp2$var[2,2])),exp(log(si)+1.96*sqrt(pp2$var[2,2])))
+
}
+
dimnames(ci2) <- list(Percent=percent, c("Estimate","Lower ci", "Upper ci","Serror"))
+
value<-c("estimate","lower","upper")
+
+
list(censdata=pp1,musig=data.frame(value,mu,sigma),loglike=-pp2$loglik[1],slives=ci2)
+
+}
> #### -25oC for 6.30minutes
> sslife(Temp1)
$censdata
id ti ts cens censcod
1 2 4 4 right
0
2 3 4 4 right
0
3 4 4 4 left
2
4 5 4 4 right
0
5 6 4 4 right
0
6 7 4 4 right
0
7 8 4 4 right
0
8 9 4 4 right
0
9 10 4 4 right
0
10 11 4 4 right
0
11 12 4 4 right
0
12 13 4 4 right
0
13 14 4 4 right
0
14 15 4 4 right
0
15 16 4 4 right
0
16 17 4 4 right
0
17 18 4 4 right
0
18 19 3 4 interval
3
19 20 4 4 right
0
20 21 4 4 right
0
21 22 4 4 right
0
22 23 2 3 interval
3
23 24 4 4 right
0
24 25 4 4 right
0
25 26 4 4 right
0
UNIT V
Page 14
TEAM D LOW FAT SAFFRON ICE CREAM WITH ROSE WATER
26 27
27 29
28 30
29 31
30 32
31 33
32 34
33 35
34 36
35 37
36 38
37 39
38 40
3
4
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4 interval
4 right
4 interval
4 right
4 right
4 right
4 right
4 right
4 right
4 right
4 right
4 right
4 right
3
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
$musig
value
mu
sigma
1 estimate 1.740639 0.18107977
2 lower 1.321845 0.06133747
3 upper 2.159433 0.53458165
$loglike
[1] 17.17320
$slives
Percent Estimate Lower ci Upper ci Serror
10 3.792946 3.207640 4.485054 0.3243501
25 4.549566 3.673486 5.634580 0.4964847
50 5.334904 3.746815 7.596104 0.9618196
> #### -25oC for 13minutes
> sslife(temp2)
$censdata
id ti ts cens censcod
1 1 4 4 right
0
2 2 4 4 right
0
3 3 4 4 right
0
4 4 4 4 right
0
5 6 3 4 interval
3
6 7 4 4 right
0
7 8 4 4 right
0
8 9 4 4 right
0
9 10 3 4 interval
3
10 11 4 4 right
0
11 12 4 4 right
0
12 13 4 4 right
0
13 14 4 4 right
0
UNIT V
Page 15
TEAM D LOW FAT SAFFRON ICE CREAM WITH ROSE WATER
14 15
15 16
16 17
17 18
18 19
19 20
20 21
21 22
22 23
23 24
24 25
25 26
26 27
27 29
28 30
29 31
30 32
31 33
32 34
33 35
34 36
35 37
36 38
37 40
4
4
4
4
3
1
4
3
1
4
4
4
1
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
4
4
4
4
4 right
4 right
4 right
4 right
4 interval
4 interval
4 right
4 interval
2 interval
4 right
4 right
4 left
2 interval
4 right
4 right
4 right
4 right
4 right
4 right
4 interval
4 right
4 right
4 right
4 right
0
0
0
0
3
3
0
3
3
0
0
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
$musig
value
mu sigma
1 estimate 1.815080 0.3330037
2 lower 1.418760 0.1575194
3 upper 2.211399 0.7039861
$loglike
[1] 27.78214
$slives
Percent Estimate Lower ci Upper ci Serror
10 2.902867 2.114828 3.984549 0.4690875
25 4.055972 3.258886 5.048017 0.4527892
50 5.435923 3.931889 7.515284 0.8983402
> #### -18oC for 6.30minutes
> sslife(temp3)
$censdata
id ti ts cens censcod
1 1 4 4 right
0
2 2 4 4 right
0
UNIT V
Page 16
TEAM D LOW FAT SAFFRON ICE CREAM WITH ROSE WATER
3 3 1 4 interval
4 4 4 4 right
5 5 4 4 right
6 6 3 4 interval
7 7 4 4 right
8 8 4 4 right
9 9 4 4 right
10 10 4 4 right
11 11 4 4 right
12 12 4 4 right
13 13 4 4 left
14 14 4 4 right
15 15 4 4 right
16 16 4 4 right
17 17 4 4 right
18 18 4 4 right
19 19 4 4 right
20 20 1 4 interval
21 21 4 4 right
22 22 4 4 right
23 23 4 4 right
24 24 4 4 right
25 25 4 4 right
26 26 4 4 right
27 27 2 3 interval
28 29 4 4 right
29 30 4 4 right
30 31 4 4 right
31 32 3 4 interval
32 33 4 4 right
33 34 4 4 right
34 35 3 4 interval
35 36 4 4 right
36 37 4 4 right
37 38 4 4 right
38 39 3 4 interval
39 40 4 4 right
3
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
0
0
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
0
3
0
$musig
value
mu
sigma
1 estimate 1.619600 0.15868310
2 lower 1.363203 0.05973494
3 upper 1.875997 0.42153429
$loglike
[1] 22.38157
$slives
UNIT V
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TEAM D LOW FAT SAFFRON ICE CREAM WITH ROSE WATER
Percent Estimate Lower ci Upper ci Serror
10 3.534263 3.008889 4.151371 0.2901954
25 4.144975 3.688657 4.657743 0.2466562
50 4.765682 3.876404 5.858966 0.5021779
> #### -18oC for 13minutes
> sslife(temp4)
$censdata
id ti ts cens censcod
1 1 4 4 right
0
2 2 3 4 interval
3
3 3 1 4 interval
3
4 4 3 4 interval
3
5 5 3 4 interval
3
6 6 3 4 interval
3
7 7 4 4 right
0
8 8 4 4 right
0
9 9 3 4 interval
3
10 10 3 4 interval
3
11 11 4 4 right
0
12 12 3 4 interval
3
13 13 2 3 interval
3
14 14 4 4 right
0
15 15 2 3 interval
3
16 16 4 4 right
0
17 18 1 2 interval
3
18 19 3 4 interval
3
19 20 1 4 interval
3
20 21 2 3 interval
3
21 22 3 4 interval
3
22 23 2 3 interval
3
23 24 4 4 right
0
24 25 3 4 interval
3
25 26 4 4 left
2
26 27 1 2 interval
3
27 28 3 4 interval
3
28 29 4 4 right
0
29 30 3 4 interval
3
30 31 4 4 right
0
31 32 4 4 right
0
32 34 2 3 interval
3
33 35 3 4 interval
3
34 36 4 4 right
0
35 37 2 3 interval
3
36 39 2 3 interval
3
37 40 4 4 right
0
UNIT V
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TEAM D LOW FAT SAFFRON ICE CREAM WITH ROSE WATER
$musig
value
mu sigma
1 estimate 1.358788 0.2321328
2 lower 1.265359 0.1563444
3 upper 1.452217 0.3446599
$loglike
[1] 43.09478
$slives
Percent Estimate Lower ci Upper ci Serror
10 2.308052 1.857195 2.868359 0.2559305
25 2.914137 2.534220 3.351009 0.2076883
50 3.574082 3.247398 3.933629 0.1747911
Figure 1: -25oC for 6 mins
Figure 2: -25oC for 13 mins
Figure 3: -18oC for 6 mins
Figure 4: -18oC for 13 mins
UNIT V
Page 19