Global Value of GM Rice
Matty Demonta and Alexander J. Steinb
a Africa
Rice Center (AfricaRice), Saint-Louis, Senegal, m.demont@cgiar.org
b International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, USA
International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) 16th
Annual Conference on “The Political Economy of the Bioeconomy:
Biotechnology and Biofuel”, Ravello, Italy, 24–27 June 2012
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
Introduction
Methods
Metrics
Critical assessment
International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) 16th
Annual Conference on “The Political Economy of the Bioeconomy:
Biotechnology and Biofuel”, Ravello, Italy, 24–27 June 2012
1. Introduction
• Rice = most important food crop of the
developing world
• Worldwide, more than 3.5 billion people
depend on rice for more than 20% of their
daily calorie intake
• Staple food of more than half of the world’s
population
• Many of whom are also poor & therefore
extremely vulnerable to high rice prices
International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) 16th
Annual Conference on “The Political Economy of the Bioeconomy:
Biotechnology and Biofuel”, Ravello, Italy, 24–27 June 2012
1. Introduction
• Rice world market = thin, fragmented,
inelastic domestic demand, low world
stockholdings  unstable
• GM rice may have substantial implications
• For alleviation of poverty, hunger, and
malnutrition in rice growing & consuming
countries (James, 2005)
• For global acceptance of GM crops (Brookes &
Barfoot, 2003)
International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) 16th
Annual Conference on “The Political Economy of the Bioeconomy:
Biotechnology and Biofuel”, Ravello, Italy, 24–27 June 2012
1. Introduction
Table 1: GM rice traits approved and in the advanced R&D pipeline
Event, genes or product
name
Trait
Rice with agronomic or nutritional traits
LLRICE62
Herbicide-tolerance
LLRICE06
Herbicide-tolerance
LLRICE601
Tararikhteh B827
Herbicide-tolerance
Insect-resistance
Huahui 1
Insect-resistance
Shanyou 63
KMD1
T1c-9
T2A-1
Kefeng 6
Kefeng 8
Insect-resistance
Insect-resistance
Insect-resistance
Insect-resistance
Insect-resistance
Insect-resistance
Developer
First approval or development stage
Bayer CropScience, Germany
Bayer CropScience, Germany
Fully deregulated in the United States in 2000
Fully deregulated in the United States in 2000
Environmental approval in the United States in 2006, approval for food and feed
in Columbia in 2008
Approved by the Agriculture Ministry in Iran in 2005, then revoked again
a
Biosafety certificate for commercial production issued in China in 2009
c, d
Biosafety certificate for commercial production issued in China in 2009
Stage of preproduction testing passed in China in 2009
Stage of preproduction testing passed in China in 2009
Stage of preproduction testing passed in China in 2009
Stage of preproduction testing passed in China in 2009
Stage of preproduction testing passed in China in 2009
Preparation of safety information for submission to regulators in the Philippines
in 2013
Advanced R&D in India
Advanced R&D in India
Advanced R&D in India
Advanced R&D in India
Advanced R&D in India
c, d
Bayer CropScience, Germany
Iran
Huazhong Agricultural University,
China
Huazhong Agricultural University,
China
China
China
China
China
China
International Rice Research
Institute, Philippines
India
India
India
India
India
b
b
a
c
c
c
c
c
e
Beta-carotene content
a
Insect-resistance
a
Insect-resistance
a
Virus-resistance
a
Virus-resistance
a
Disease-resistance
Abiotic stressa
Glyoxalase I & II
tolerance
India
Advanced R&D in India
Abiotic stressa
eOsmotin
tolerance
India
Advanced R&D in India
a
Bt traits
Insect-resistance
Pakistan
Advanced R&D in Pakistan
a
Bt traits
Insect-resistance
Indonesia
Advanced R&D in Indonesia
Nitrogen-use
f
NUE
efficiency
Arcadia Biosciences, United States Advanced R&D in the United States
Rice with pharmaceutical or medical traits
g
Lactoferrin
Lactoferrin content
Ventria Bioscience, United States
Clinical trials in the United States
a
b
c
d
e
f
g
Sources: Stein & Rodriguez-Cerezo (2009), as complemented by Barry (2011); ISAAA (2011); Chen et al. (2011) ; Lu (2010); IRRI (2012); Arcadia (2012); Ventria
(2012)
Golden Rice (GR2)
cry1Ac
cry1Ab, cry1C & bar
CP iORF-IV
RTBV-ODs2
chi11 tlp
International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) 16th
Annual Conference on “The Political Economy of the Bioeconomy:
Biotechnology and Biofuel”, Ravello, Italy, 24–27 June 2012
1. Introduction
Table 1: GM rice traits approved and in the advanced R&D pipeline
Event, genes or product
name
Trait
Rice with agronomic or nutritional traits
LLRICE62
Herbicide-tolerance
LLRICE06
Herbicide-tolerance
Developer
First approval or development stage
Bayer CropScience, Germany
Bayer CropScience, Germany
Fully deregulated in the United States in 2000
Fully deregulated in the United States in 2000
Environmental approval in the United States in 2006, approval for food and feed
in Columbia in 2008
Approved by the Agriculture Ministry in Iran in 2005, then revoked again
a
Biosafety certificate for commercial production issued in China in 2009
c, d
Biosafety certificate for commercial production issued in China in 2009
Stage of preproduction testing passed in China in 2009
Stage of preproduction testing passed in China in 2009
Stage of preproduction testing passed in China in 2009
Stage of preproduction testing passed in China in 2009
Stage of preproduction testing passed in China in 2009
Preparation of safety information for submission to regulators in the Philippines
in 2013
Advanced R&D in India
Advanced R&D in India
Advanced R&D in India
Advanced R&D in India
Advanced R&D in India
c, d
• Dominated by first-generation, agronomic GM
traits: herbicide-tolerance & insect-resistance
• Many GM traits beyond approval stage,
preproduction testing stage
• Also traits with consumer or industry benefits,
i.e. second-generation GM traits
• Brookes & Barfoot (2003): By 2012, 3/4 of the
GM traits will have reached the Asian farmer
with a probability of at least 80%
LLRICE601
Tararikhteh B827
Herbicide-tolerance
Insect-resistance
Huahui 1
Insect-resistance
Shanyou 63
KMD1
T1c-9
T2A-1
Kefeng 6
Kefeng 8
Insect-resistance
Insect-resistance
Insect-resistance
Insect-resistance
Insect-resistance
Insect-resistance
Bayer CropScience, Germany
Iran
Huazhong Agricultural University,
China
Huazhong Agricultural University,
China
China
China
China
China
China
International Rice Research
Institute, Philippines
India
India
India
India
India
b
b
a
c
c
c
c
c
e
Beta-carotene content
a
Insect-resistance
a
Insect-resistance
a
Virus-resistance
a
Virus-resistance
a
Disease-resistance
Abiotic stressa
Glyoxalase I & II
tolerance
India
Advanced R&D in India
Abiotic stressa
eOsmotin
tolerance
India
Advanced R&D in India
a
Bt traits
Insect-resistance
Pakistan
Advanced R&D in Pakistan
a
Bt traits
Insect-resistance
Indonesia
Advanced R&D in Indonesia
Nitrogen-use
f
NUE
efficiency
Arcadia Biosciences, United States Advanced R&D in the United States
Rice with pharmaceutical or medical traits
g
Lactoferrin
Lactoferrin content
Ventria Bioscience, United States
Clinical trials in the United States
a
b
c
d
e
f
g
Sources: Stein & Rodriguez-Cerezo (2009), as complemented by Barry (2011); ISAAA (2011); Chen et al. (2011) ; Lu (2010); IRRI (2012); Arcadia (2012); Ventria
(2012)
Golden Rice (GR2)
cry1Ac
cry1Ab, cry1C & bar
CP iORF-IV
RTBV-ODs2
chi11 tlp
International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) 16th
Annual Conference on “The Political Economy of the Bioeconomy:
Biotechnology and Biofuel”, Ravello, Italy, 24–27 June 2012
1. Introduction
Table 1: GM rice traits approved and in the advanced R&D pipeline
Event, genes or product
name
Trait
Rice with agronomic or nutritional traits
LLRICE62
Herbicide-tolerance
LLRICE06
Herbicide-tolerance
Developer
First approval or development stage
Bayer CropScience, Germany
Bayer CropScience, Germany
Fully deregulated in the United States in 2000
Fully deregulated in the United States in 2000
Environmental approval in the United States in 2006, approval for food and feed
in Columbia in 2008
Approved by the Agriculture Ministry in Iran in 2005, then revoked again
a
Biosafety certificate for commercial production issued in China in 2009
c, d
Biosafety certificate for commercial production issued in China in 2009
Stage of preproduction testing passed in China in 2009
Stage of preproduction testing passed in China in 2009
Stage of preproduction testing passed in China in 2009
Stage of preproduction testing passed in China in 2009
Stage of preproduction testing passed in China in 2009
Preparation of safety information for submission to regulators in the Philippines
in 2013
Advanced R&D in India
Advanced R&D in India
Advanced R&D in India
Advanced R&D in India
Advanced R&D in India
c, d
• However, in 2012 nowhere in the world has
GM rice been commercialized at a large scale
• Important existing and expected approvals:
LLRICE601
Tararikhteh B827
Herbicide-tolerance
Insect-resistance
Huahui 1
Insect-resistance
Shanyou 63
KMD1
T1c-9
T2A-1
Kefeng 6
Kefeng 8
Insect-resistance
Insect-resistance
Insect-resistance
Insect-resistance
Insect-resistance
Insect-resistance
Bayer CropScience, Germany
Iran
Huazhong Agricultural University,
China
Huazhong Agricultural University,
China
China
China
China
China
China
International Rice Research
Institute, Philippines
India
India
India
India
India
• Approval of Bt rice in China
• Expected commercial approval of Golden Rice
in the Philippines in 2013/14
b
b
a
c
c
c
c
c
e
Beta-carotene content
a
Insect-resistance
a
Insect-resistance
a
Virus-resistance
a
Virus-resistance
a
Disease-resistance
Abiotic stressa
Glyoxalase I & II
tolerance
India
Advanced R&D in India
Abiotic stressa
eOsmotin
tolerance
India
Advanced R&D in India
a
Bt traits
Insect-resistance
Pakistan
Advanced R&D in Pakistan
a
Bt traits
Insect-resistance
Indonesia
Advanced R&D in Indonesia
Nitrogen-use
f
NUE
efficiency
Arcadia Biosciences, United States Advanced R&D in the United States
Rice with pharmaceutical or medical traits
g
Lactoferrin
Lactoferrin content
Ventria Bioscience, United States
Clinical trials in the United States
a
b
c
d
e
f
g
Sources: Stein & Rodriguez-Cerezo (2009), as complemented by Barry (2011); ISAAA (2011); Chen et al. (2011) ; Lu (2010); IRRI (2012); Arcadia (2012); Ventria
(2012)
Golden Rice (GR2)
cry1Ac
cry1Ab, cry1C & bar
CP iORF-IV
RTBV-ODs2
chi11 tlp
• Important for the developing world
• Is commercialization imminent?
• Review evidence on global value of GM rice
International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) 16th
Annual Conference on “The Political Economy of the Bioeconomy:
Biotechnology and Biofuel”, Ravello, Italy, 24–27 June 2012
2. Methods
• Almost no ex-post evidence  ex-ante
• Field trials vs. on-farm trials
• ANOVA, (stochastic) partial budgeting vs.
econometric techniques
• Assumptions (e.g. technology licensing fee)
• Exogenous vs. endogenous technology fee
• Partial equilibrium models vs. CGE
• Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)
approach
International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) 16th
Annual Conference on “The Political Economy of the Bioeconomy:
Biotechnology and Biofuel”, Ravello, Italy, 24–27 June 2012
3. Metrics
Table 2: Field and farm level value of first-generation GM rice traits
Yield
Pesticides
Water
Adoption
Mean
Variance Volume Poisoning saving Cost saving potential Data
Trait
Region
Methodology
Source
HTGM USA
+7%
field trials
ANOVA
Oard et al. (1996)
HTGM USA
+0%
$31–101/ha
survey, assump. PB, exogenous TF
Annou et al. (2000)
HTGM USA
+0%
$17–42/haa
survey, assump. SPB, exogenous TF
Bond et al. (2003)
HTGM Uruguay
+2.5%
$25/ha
70%
secondary data SPB, exogenous TF
Hareau et al. (2006)
HTGM Senegal
+0%
–31%
€22–26/ha 80%
survey, assump. SPB, endogenous TF
Demont et al. (2009)
IRGM
China
+29%
n.a.
field trials
ANOVA
Tu et al. (2000)
IRGM
China
+60–65%
n.a.b
field trials
ANOVA
Wang et al. (2010)
IRGM
China
+0%c
–50–60%
field trials
ANOVA
Wang et al. (2010)
IRGM
China
+0–68%d
field trials
ANOVA
Xia et al. (2010)
IRGM
China
–56–0%e
field trials
ANOVA
Xia et al. (2010)
IRGM
China
+2–4%
$57–84/ha
field trials
ANOVA
Tan et al. (2011)
IRGM
China
–0–29%
field trials
ANOVA
Wang et al. (2012)
IRGM
China
+6–9%
–80%
–100%
on-farm trials
MR, household effects
Huang et al. (2005)
IRGM
China
+9–12%
–50%
on-farm trials
MR, village effects
Huang et al. (2008)
IRGM
China
+0%
–85–90%
on-farm trials
MR, household effects
Huang et al. (2008)
IRGM
Korea
–0–16%
field trials
ANOVA
Kim et al. (2008)
DTGM China
+0–49%f
field trials
ANOVA
Xiao et al. (2007)
DSTGM China
+18–41%g
field trials
ANOVA
Hu et al. (2006)
DSTGM India
+25%
0%
–$4.1/ha
50%
survey, assump. PB, exogenous TF
Ramasamy et al. (2007)
DSTGM Bangladesh +20%
0%
–25% –$3.0/ha
70%
survey, assump. PB, exogenous TF
Islam & Norton (2007)
DT
China
+7.8%
–13%
–33%
on-farm trials
MR
Pray et al. (2011)
DT
South India +28%h
on-farm trials
ANOVA
Pray et al. (2011)
DT
South India +8%h
on-farm trials
MR
Pray et al. (2011)
DT
South India +8.6%i
on-farm trials
ANOVA
Pray et al. (2011)
DT
East India +29%
survey
ANOVA
Pray et al. (2011)
Notes: HTGM: herbicide tolerant GM rice; IRGM: insect-resistant GM rice; DTGM: drought tolerant GM rice; DSTGM: drought and salinity tolerant GM rice; GR: golden
rice; ANOVA: analysis of variance; PB: partial budgeting; SPB: stochastic partial budgeting; TF: technology fee; MR: multiple regression; n.a.: not applicable
a
Impact for median-cost growers. Acres are converted to hectares (1 ha = 2.471 acres).
b
No insecticides were used on Bt rice and non-Bt rice plots.
c
Bt rice and non-Bt rice plots were protected through insecticides.
d
Normal insect pressure was recorded.
e
Low insect pressure was recorded.
f
Increase of relative yields (ratio of the yield in drought stress to that under normal growth) of DTGM rice compared to the wild type under drought stress conditions.
g
Based on fresh weights per plant after mild salt stress treatment.
h
Yields of DT rice compared to high yielding varieties (HYVs).
i
Yield data compare drought stressed DT varieties with land races that had been resown due to the early drought in 2009 which caused poor germination of all varieties.
International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) 16th
Annual Conference on “The Political Economy of the Bioeconomy:
Biotechnology and Biofuel”, Ravello, Italy, 24–27 June 2012
3. Metrics
Table 2: Field and farm level value of first-generation GM rice traits
Yield
Pesticides
Water
Adoption
Mean
Variance Volume Poisoning saving Cost saving potential Data
Trait
Region
Methodology
Source
HTGM USA
+7%
field trials
ANOVA
Oard et al. (1996)
HTGM USA
+0%
$31–101/ha
survey, assump. PB, exogenous TF
Annou et al. (2000)
HTGM USA
+0%
$17–42/haa
survey, assump. SPB, exogenous TF
Bond et al. (2003)
HTGM Uruguay
+2.5%
$25/ha
70%
secondary data SPB, exogenous TF
Hareau et al. (2006)
HTGM Senegal
+0%
–31%
€22–26/ha 80%
survey, assump. SPB, endogenous TF
Demont et al. (2009)
IRGM
China
+29%
n.a.
field trials
ANOVA
Tu et al. (2000)
IRGM
China
+60–65%
n.a.b
field trials
ANOVA
Wang et al. (2010)
IRGM
China
+0%c
–50–60%
field trials
ANOVA
Wang et al. (2010)
IRGM
China
+0–68%d
field trials
ANOVA
Xia et al. (2010)
IRGM
China
–56–0%e
field trials
ANOVA
Xia et al. (2010)
IRGM
China
+2–4%
$57–84/ha
field trials
ANOVA
Tan et al. (2011)
IRGM
China
–0–29%
field trials
ANOVA
Wang et al. (2012)
IRGM
China
+6–9%
–80%
–100%
on-farm trials
MR, household effects
Huang et al. (2005)
IRGM
China
+9–12%
–50%
on-farm trials
MR, village effects
Huang et al. (2008)
IRGM
China
+0%
–85–90%
on-farm trials
MR, household effects
Huang et al. (2008)
IRGM
Korea
–0–16%
field trials
ANOVA
Kim et al. (2008)
DTGM China
+0–49%f
field trials
ANOVA
Xiao et al. (2007)
DSTGM China
+18–41%g
field trials
ANOVA
Hu et al. (2006)
DSTGM India
+25%
0%
–$4.1/ha
50%
survey, assump. PB, exogenous TF
Ramasamy et al. (2007)
DSTGM Bangladesh +20%
0%
–25% –$3.0/ha
70%
survey, assump. PB, exogenous TF
Islam & Norton (2007)
DT
China
+7.8%
–13%
–33%
on-farm trials
MR
Pray et al. (2011)
DT
South India +28%h
on-farm trials
ANOVA
Pray et al. (2011)
DT
South India +8%h
on-farm trials
MR
Pray et al. (2011)
DT
South India +8.6%i
on-farm trials
ANOVA
Pray et al. (2011)
DT
East India +29%
survey
ANOVA
Pray et al. (2011)
Notes: HTGM: herbicide tolerant GM rice; IRGM: insect-resistant GM rice; DTGM: drought tolerant GM rice; DSTGM: drought and salinity tolerant GM rice; GR: golden
rice; ANOVA: analysis of variance; PB: partial budgeting; SPB: stochastic partial budgeting; TF: technology fee; MR: multiple regression; n.a.: not applicable
a
Impact for median-cost growers. Acres are converted to hectares (1 ha = 2.471 acres).
b
No insecticides were used on Bt rice and non-Bt rice plots.
c
Bt rice and non-Bt rice plots were protected through insecticides.
d
Normal insect pressure was recorded.
e
Low insect pressure was recorded.
f
Increase of relative yields (ratio of the yield in drought stress to that under normal growth) of DTGM rice compared to the wild type under drought stress conditions.
g
Based on fresh weights per plant after mild salt stress treatment.
h
Yields of DT rice compared to high yielding varieties (HYVs).
i
Yield data compare drought stressed DT varieties with land races that had been resown due to the early drought in 2009 which caused poor germination of all varieties.
1. Anticipated impacts are in line with classic
examples of commercialized first-generation
GM crops
• Impact of stress-resistant GM traits = f(stress
incidence/severity & use of damage control
inputs, e.g. herbicides, insecticides, water)
• Impact of Bt rice in China ranges from +0–12%
yield advantage to –50–90% insecticide use
• DT rice in China: –13% yield variance, –33%
water
International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) 16th
Annual Conference on “The Political Economy of the Bioeconomy:
Biotechnology and Biofuel”, Ravello, Italy, 24–27 June 2012
3. Metrics
Table 3: Global value and benefit sharing of first and second-generation GM rice traits per year
Farmers (106 US$)
Consumers (106 US$)
Adoption/ Total
Corporate
ROW
Metho
6
6
Trait
Region
coverage (10 US$)
profits (10 US$) Income
Risk
Income Risk Health
(106 US$) dology
Source
GM
China
1,110
909
CGE
Anderson & Yao (2003)
GM
China
95%
4,155
CGE
Huang et al. (2004)
GM
SSA
45%
133a
3,326a
CGE
Anderson & Jackson (2005)
GM
Asia
45%
1,857b
232b
CGE
Anderson et al. (2005)
c
GM
China
80%
4,626
c
862.4
CGE
Gruère et al. (2009)
GM
India
72%
3,253c
d
c
c
GM
Asia
.
10,081
931.5
CGE
Gruère et al. (2011)
IRGM
Philippines 66%
270e
208e
62e
0e
PE
Mamaril & Norton (2006)
IRGM
Philippines 66%
482
482
PE
Bayer et al. (2010)
IRGM
Vietnam
60%
329e
245e
84e
20e
PE
Mamaril & Norton (2006)
IRGM
Asia
100%
2,267
10.7
CGE
Hareau et al. (2005)
HTGM USA
50%
2,183f
PE
Fuller et al. (2003)
HTGM Asia
21–22%g 1,743
177
426
CGE
Hareau et al. (2005)
HTGM Uruguay
70%
2.37h
0.55h
1.82h
0h
0h
PE
Hareau et al. (2006)
DTGM Asia
100%
2,561
–39.1
CGE
Hareau et al. (2005)
DTGM World
30%
4,490i
–1,024i
5,514i
CGE
Annou et al. (2005)
DTGM Bangladesh 30–50% 168
15.1
32.7
47.7
11.3
60.9
PE
Konstandini et al. (2009)
DTGM India
30–50% 323
44.3
52.5
102
18.1
107
PE
Konstandini et al. (2009)
DTGM Philippines 30–50% 25.8
4.9
11.6
1.1
6.0
2.2
PE
Konstandini et al. (2009)
DTGM Indonesia
30–50% 48.7
8.1
19.6
1.6
15.3
4.1
PE
Konstandini et al. (2009)
DTGM Nigeria
30–50% 89.9
16.1
23.6
9.0
27.6
13.6
PE
Konstandini et al. (2009)
DSTGM India
50%
1,028–3,343
631–3,258
0–1,337
PE
Ramasamy et al. (2007)
DSTGM Bangladesh 70%
303
184
120
PE
Islam & Norton (2007)
GR
SSA
45%
3,610j
CGE
Anderson & Jackson (2005)
GR
Asia
45%
3,164k
962i
CGE
Anderson et al. (2005)
l
GR
Philippines 40–60% 16–88
16–88
DALY Zimmermann & Qaim (2004)
GR
India
14–50% 530–22,778m
530–22,778
DALY Stein et al. (2006, supplem.)
GR
Bangladesh 5-10%
31–314n
31–314
DALY
Own calculations
FR
China
37–82% 116–5,898o
116–5,898
DALY
De Steur et al. (2010b)
MBF
China
20–60% 781–76,299p
3,460–76,299
DALY
De Steur et al. (2012a)
Notes: ROW: rest of the world; CGE: computable general equilibrium; PE: partial equilibrium; SSA: sub-Saharan Africa; IRGM: insect-resistant GM rice; HTGM: herbicide
tolerant GM rice; DTGM: drought tolerant GM rice; DSTGM: drought and salinity tolerant GM rice; GR: golden rice; DALY: disability-adjusted life year; FR: folate-rich;
MBF: multi-biofortified
a
Welfare effects of GM rice and wheat adoption (difference between simulations 2e and 1e).
b
Welfare effects of first-generation GM rice adoption in China, South and Southeast Asia (difference between simulations 4 and 1).
c
Long run effect of GM rice introduction under current trade restrictions on GM imports in sensitive countries (scenario 2b).
International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) 16th
Annual Conference on “The Political Economy of the Bioeconomy:
Biotechnology and Biofuel”, Ravello, Italy, 24–27 June 2012
3. Metrics
Table 3: Global value and benefit sharing of first and second-generation GM rice traits per year
Farmers (106 US$)
Consumers (106 US$)
Adoption/ Total
Corporate
ROW
Metho
6
6
Trait
Region
coverage (10 US$)
profits (10 US$) Income
Risk
Income Risk Health
(106 US$) dology
Source
GM
China
1,110
909
CGE
Anderson & Yao (2003)
GM
China
95%
4,155
CGE
Huang et al. (2004)
GM
SSA
45%
133a
3,326a
CGE
Anderson & Jackson (2005)
GM
Asia
45%
1,857b
232b
CGE
Anderson et al. (2005)
c
GM
China
80%
4,626
c
862.4
CGE
Gruère et al. (2009)
GM
India
72%
3,253c
d
c
c
GM
Asia
.
10,081
931.5
CGE
Gruère et al. (2011)
IRGM
Philippines 66%
270e
208e
62e
0e
PE
Mamaril & Norton (2006)
IRGM
Philippines 66%
482
482
PE
Bayer et al. (2010)
IRGM
Vietnam
60%
329e
245e
84e
20e
PE
Mamaril & Norton (2006)
IRGM
Asia
100%
2,267
10.7
CGE
Hareau et al. (2005)
HTGM USA
50%
2,183f
PE
Fuller et al. (2003)
HTGM Asia
21–22%g 1,743
177
426
CGE
Hareau et al. (2005)
HTGM Uruguay
70%
2.37h
0.55h
1.82h
0h
0h
PE
Hareau et al. (2006)
DTGM Asia
100%
2,561
–39.1
CGE
Hareau et al. (2005)
DTGM World
30%
4,490i
–1,024i
5,514i
CGE
Annou et al. (2005)
DTGM Bangladesh 30–50% 168
15.1
32.7
47.7
11.3
60.9
PE
Konstandini et al. (2009)
DTGM India
30–50% 323
44.3
52.5
102
18.1
107
PE
Konstandini et al. (2009)
DTGM Philippines 30–50% 25.8
4.9
11.6
1.1
6.0
2.2
PE
Konstandini et al. (2009)
DTGM Indonesia
30–50% 48.7
8.1
19.6
1.6
15.3
4.1
PE
Konstandini et al. (2009)
DTGM Nigeria
30–50% 89.9
16.1
23.6
9.0
27.6
13.6
PE
Konstandini et al. (2009)
DSTGM India
50%
1,028–3,343
631–3,258
0–1,337
PE
Ramasamy et al. (2007)
DSTGM Bangladesh 70%
303
184
120
PE
Islam & Norton (2007)
GR
SSA
45%
3,610j
CGE
Anderson & Jackson (2005)
GR
Asia
45%
3,164k
962i
CGE
Anderson et al. (2005)
l
GR
Philippines 40–60% 16–88
16–88
DALY Zimmermann & Qaim (2004)
GR
India
14–50% 530–22,778m
530–22,778
DALY Stein et al. (2006, supplem.)
GR
Bangladesh 5-10%
31–314n
31–314
DALY
Own calculations
FR
China
37–82% 116–5,898o
116–5,898
DALY
De Steur et al. (2010b)
MBF
China
20–60% 781–76,299p
3,460–76,299
DALY
De Steur et al. (2012a)
Notes: ROW: rest of the world; CGE: computable general equilibrium; PE: partial equilibrium; SSA: sub-Saharan Africa; IRGM: insect-resistant GM rice; HTGM: herbicide
tolerant GM rice; DTGM: drought tolerant GM rice; DSTGM: drought and salinity tolerant GM rice; GR: golden rice; DALY: disability-adjusted life year; FR: folate-rich;
MBF: multi-biofortified
a
Welfare effects of GM rice and wheat adoption (difference between simulations 2e and 1e).
b
Welfare effects of first-generation GM rice adoption in China, South and Southeast Asia (difference between simulations 4 and 1).
c
Long run effect of GM rice introduction under current trade restrictions on GM imports in sensitive countries (scenario 2b).
2. Rice demand = relatively inelastic  large
impact on food prices and poverty
•
•
•
•
Impact of GM rice in China = +$4 billion
Rice price China –12%
Domestic demand +1.4%
Increase income & demand in other sectors
3. World market = thin (small share is traded)
 most gains are captured domestically
 Independent of GM-unfriendly trade policies
International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) 16th
Annual Conference on “The Political Economy of the Bioeconomy:
Biotechnology and Biofuel”, Ravello, Italy, 24–27 June 2012
3. Metrics
Table 3: Global value and benefit sharing of first and second-generation GM rice traits per year
Farmers (106 US$)
Consumers (106 US$)
Adoption/ Total
Corporate
ROW
Metho
6
6
Trait
Region
coverage (10 US$)
profits (10 US$) Income
Risk
Income Risk Health
(106 US$) dology
Source
GM
China
1,110
909
CGE
Anderson & Yao (2003)
GM
China
95%
4,155
CGE
Huang et al. (2004)
GM
SSA
45%
133a
3,326a
CGE
Anderson & Jackson (2005)
GM
Asia
45%
1,857b
232b
CGE
Anderson et al. (2005)
c
GM
China
80%
4,626
c
862.4
CGE
Gruère et al. (2009)
GM
India
72%
3,253c
d
c
c
GM
Asia
.
10,081
931.5
CGE
Gruère et al. (2011)
IRGM
Philippines 66%
270e
208e
62e
0e
PE
Mamaril & Norton (2006)
IRGM
Philippines 66%
482
482
PE
Bayer et al. (2010)
IRGM
Vietnam
60%
329e
245e
84e
20e
PE
Mamaril & Norton (2006)
IRGM
Asia
100%
2,267
10.7
CGE
Hareau et al. (2005)
HTGM USA
50%
2,183f
PE
Fuller et al. (2003)
HTGM Asia
21–22%g 1,743
177
426
CGE
Hareau et al. (2005)
HTGM Uruguay
70%
2.37h
0.55h
1.82h
0h
0h
PE
Hareau et al. (2006)
DTGM Asia
100%
2,561
–39.1
CGE
Hareau et al. (2005)
DTGM World
30%
4,490i
–1,024i
5,514i
CGE
Annou et al. (2005)
DTGM Bangladesh 30–50% 168
15.1
32.7
47.7
11.3
60.9
PE
Konstandini et al. (2009)
DTGM India
30–50% 323
44.3
52.5
102
18.1
107
PE
Konstandini et al. (2009)
DTGM Philippines 30–50% 25.8
4.9
11.6
1.1
6.0
2.2
PE
Konstandini et al. (2009)
DTGM Indonesia
30–50% 48.7
8.1
19.6
1.6
15.3
4.1
PE
Konstandini et al. (2009)
DTGM Nigeria
30–50% 89.9
16.1
23.6
9.0
27.6
13.6
PE
Konstandini et al. (2009)
DSTGM India
50%
1,028–3,343
631–3,258
0–1,337
PE
Ramasamy et al. (2007)
DSTGM Bangladesh 70%
303
184
120
PE
Islam & Norton (2007)
GR
SSA
45%
3,610j
CGE
Anderson & Jackson (2005)
GR
Asia
45%
3,164k
962i
CGE
Anderson et al. (2005)
l
GR
Philippines 40–60% 16–88
16–88
DALY Zimmermann & Qaim (2004)
GR
India
14–50% 530–22,778m
530–22,778
DALY Stein et al. (2006, supplem.)
GR
Bangladesh 5-10%
31–314n
31–314
DALY
Own calculations
FR
China
37–82% 116–5,898o
116–5,898
DALY
De Steur et al. (2010b)
MBF
China
20–60% 781–76,299p
3,460–76,299
DALY
De Steur et al. (2012a)
Notes: ROW: rest of the world; CGE: computable general equilibrium; PE: partial equilibrium; SSA: sub-Saharan Africa; IRGM: insect-resistant GM rice; HTGM: herbicide
tolerant GM rice; DTGM: drought tolerant GM rice; DSTGM: drought and salinity tolerant GM rice; GR: golden rice; DALY: disability-adjusted life year; FR: folate-rich;
MBF: multi-biofortified
a
Welfare effects of GM rice and wheat adoption (difference between simulations 2e and 1e).
b
Welfare effects of first-generation GM rice adoption in China, South and Southeast Asia (difference between simulations 4 and 1).
c
Long run effect of GM rice introduction under current trade restrictions on GM imports in sensitive countries (scenario 2b).
4. Second-generation GM rice traits have the
potential to generate benefits one order of
magnitude higher than first-generation traits
• Labor productivity  economy-wide impacts
• Golden Rice in India –60% VAD, +1.4 million
DALYs (disability-adjusted life years)
• Golden Rice in China +2% national income
• Importance of consumer acceptance
International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) 16th
Annual Conference on “The Political Economy of the Bioeconomy:
Biotechnology and Biofuel”, Ravello, Italy, 24–27 June 2012
4. Critical Assessment
Four limitations:
1. Proprietary seed technologies
• Monopolistic rent extraction
• Endogeneize technology licensing fee
(Demont et al., 2009; Dillen et al., 2009;
Konstandini et al., 2009)
2. Focus on first-order statistics (e.g. of yields)
•
•
DT rice: yield variance reductions
Represents 40% of the total benefits in Asia
(Konstandini et al, 2009)
International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) 16th
Annual Conference on “The Political Economy of the Bioeconomy:
Biotechnology and Biofuel”, Ravello, Italy, 24–27 June 2012
4. Critical Assessment
Four limitations:
3. Modeling strategies
• Hicks-neutral productivity shocks
• Ex-post evidence shows shocks = factor-biased
• Consider trade effects, restrictions
4. Challenge of transforming DALYs $ values
•
•
What is the value of a DALY? $500, $1000,
GDP, GNI?
CGE captures economy-wide impacts
(Anderson et al., 2005a, 2005b)
International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) 16th
Annual Conference on “The Political Economy of the Bioeconomy:
Biotechnology and Biofuel”, Ravello, Italy, 24–27 June 2012
Thank you! Grazie!
m.demont@cgiar.org
Center of Excellence for Rice Research
International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) 16th
Annual Conference on “The Political Economy of the Bioeconomy:
Biotechnology and Biofuel”, Ravello, Italy, 24–27 June 2012